Translated version of AUT_11 - Trabalho 1.I.

doc
Introduction to the Problem
"The aging population is one of the most severe problems that Europe faces today. The debate on
this issue, initially very focused on the consequences that a growing proportion of elderly, rises in
terms of sustainability of social security systems. Nowadays, is developed at different levels since it
recognizes that most public policies will have to be rethought in light of this new reality regarding
health, education, employment, transport, public services, .... (...)
If the increased rates of dependency represent, in itself, a challenge in terms of new needs for
social care, the truth is that other trends may yet be installed to increase future requirements at
this level. This applies to the transformation of family structures in which a striking feature
concerns the reduction of average households. '(Taken from: Destaque Informativo – Dinâmicas
demográficas e sociais: o Porto no contexto Europeu)
'The sharp population decline and population aging are the main features of the evolution of Porto
in the last 20 years and reflect the strong decentralization of residential function for the adjoining
districts, as well as the crash of birth. "(Taken from: Notes on the evolution population of the
municipality of Porto)

Problem
Prepare a study of the evolution of the social structure of the population of the Port, based on an
estimate of the population in the county in 2011 by age group, by Method of Cohort Survivors. This
study should focus on the social implications of changing age structure for the county, particularly in
terms of equipment sizing. In particular, a second phase will study the insertion of an urban school
equipment, by assessing the location criteria of an EB1 equipment in an area of Porto.

The assignment n.º 1 is divided into 2 parts

Part I
I.1 - Estimated population in the municipality of Porto to the year 2011 by age group, based on the
Method of Cohort Survivors
- Analysis of trends and age structure for the period between 1970 and 2011, based on
estimates made
I.2 - Study the social implications of these major changes in the population.
- Identification of the main shortcomings in terms of public equipments
Part II
Study of the insertion of an urban school equipment (Escola EB1): evaluation of criteria defined by
the location DGOTDU

Group work
3 students per group
Duration of work
4 classes
 Job No. 1 - Part I.1
I.1 - Estimated population in the municipality of Porto to the year 2011 by age group, based on
the Method of Cohort Survivors
- Analysis of trends and age structure for the period between 1970 and 2011, based on estimates
made

Data
- Demographic data (Excel tables)
- Statistics on the Population
Methodology
- Estimated population in the municipality of Porto to the year 2011 by age group, based on the
application of the Method of Cohort Survivors. Estimates for 2011 are made only for the Natural
Population.
- Based on estimates (Natural Population in 2011), analyzing the evolution and age structure on the
basis of age pyramids for the period between 1970 and 2011
Note: Part I.1 is delivered together with Part I.2 (see AUT_11-Template Trab1 - I.1)

ANNEX I.1 - DEMOGRAPHY

What is Demography?
It is the statistical study of human populations and their evolution by age group, in particular from
demographic events (births, deaths and migration). Demographics are of particular importance to
forecast the future evolution of population and age structure.
Which are the Data Base and Sources of Information?

 Data Base:

o Static data / Dynamic Data

 Information Sources:

o Censuses

o Demographic Statistics

o ...

The Demographic Dynamics

 Demographic events:

o Births (N)
o Deaths (O)

o Immigration (I)
o Emigration (E)
 Temporal evolution of populations
 o Natural Balance (N-O)
o Net migration (I-E)

 Analytical expression:

Pt + n = P t + ( N − O )t , t +n + ( I − E )t , t+n

The Age Structure of Population

 Cohort
Group of individuals who experience the same demographic phenomenon

 Pyramid
Graphical representation of population structure by age and sex at any given time

70+ 70 +
70+
70 + 6 5-6 9
65-69 65- 69
6 5-6 9 6 0 -6 4
60-64 60- 64
6 0 -6 4 55-59
55-59 55- 59
55-59 50 -54
50-54 50- 54
50 -54
4 5-4 9
45-49 45- 49
4 5-4 9
4 0 -4 4
40-44 40- 44
4 0 -4 4
3 5-3 9
35-39 35- 39
3 5-3 9
3 0 -3 4
3 0 -3 4 30-34 30- 34
2 5-2 9
2 5-2 9 25-29 25- 29
2 0 -2 4
2 0 -2 4 20-24 20- 24
15-19
15-19 15- 19 15-19
10 -14
10 -14 10- 14
10-14
5-9
5-9 5-9
5- 9
0 -4
0 -4 0-4
0- 4

P o p ula ção M H P o p ula ção M H População M H P o p ula ção H M

1970 1981 1991 2001

Demographic Rates
Fertility Rate
n. º nados−vivos Δtx
TF Δ tx =
P opulação Feminina 0 , x
Mortality rate
n .º óbitos Δtx
TM Δtx =
P opulação Total 0,x
Survival Rate
TS Δ tx = (1 − TM Δ tx )

Population Projections Method of Cohort Survivors

This method allows knowing the distribution of future population by sex and age group, from the
formulation of hypotheses of evolution and each micro-demographic variable (mortality, fertility
and migration).
 This is the most accurate methodology as it separates the various components of population
evolution and considers the age structure and sex.

However, the high degree of randomness of some phenomena, namely, the migration, introduces a
risk impossible to predict in advance. The probabilistic model associated with this method may
lead to the following equation:

Pt + n = P t + N t , t+n − Ot , t+n + ( I − E )t , t+n

P - Present population
N - No. live births

O- No. of deaths
(I - E) Net migration
t - base year of projection

n – No. of time interval of the projection (years)

The population of age group (i) is equal to the survivors of the age group (i - 5) in the previous
period, added to or subtracted from the migration.
The age group [0-4] consist of live births during the five-year excluding deaths in the group during
the same period.
The calculation procedure is repeated successively, starting from the new population base
calculated at the previous stage until reaching the desired year horizon.

Mortality rate
Δt Δt

TM G.E.[X ] =
n. º óbitos G . E . [ X ]
n . º indivíduos Δt
  G.E.[X]

Fertility Rate
Δt
Δt n .º nados−vivos , segundo a idade das mães
TF G.E.[ X] =
n . º mãe s t
G. E.[X]
G.E.[X ]

Survival Rate
t t +1 t +2 t +3 t+4
TSquinquénio
G. E[X]
( t ,t+4 )
= (1 − TM G. E [ X ] )∗(1 − TM G .E [ X ] )∗(1 − TM G. E [ X ] )∗(1 − TM G . E [ X ] )∗(1 − TM G . E [ X ] )

Population of the age groups [5-9] ... [70 -74]

Pt+5 t quinquénio( t ,t +4 )
G . E [ X +5 ] =PG . E . [ X ]∗TSG . E . [ X ]

Population Age Group [75 +]

quinquénio(t , t+4 )
Pt+5 t
G . E . [ 75 + ] =( PG . E . [ 70−74 ] ∗ TS G . E . [ 70 −74 ] ) + ( PtG . E .[ 75+ ] ∗ TS quinquénio
G . E . [ 75 + ]
(t , t + 4)
)
Women of Fertile Age
Looks at women between 15 and 49 years
Live births
t t+5
t,t +4
P(fem )G . E . [ X ] +P(fem )G . E [ X ]
NV G:E: [ X ] = ∗ (TFtG . E [ X ] + TFtG+1. E [ X ] + TFt+2 t+3 t+4
G . E [ X ] + TFG . E [ X ] + TFG . E [ X ] )
2

[ 45−49]
NV t,ttotal+4 = ∑ t,t+4
NV G:E: [X]
X = [ 15−19]

Distribution of live births by sex:

Male 51.5%
Female 48.5%

Population Age Group [0-4]

TM tG:E: [ 0−4 ] TMt+1 TMt G:E:

+2
TM t+3 TMt+4
P tG:E.
+5
[0−4 ] = NV t,t+4
total( H ,M ) ∗ ( 1−
2 )(
∗ 1−
G:E: [ 0−4 ]
2 )(
∗ 1−
2
[ 0−4 ]
)(
∗ 1−
G:E: [ 0−4 ]
2 )(
∗1−
G:E: [ 0−4 ]
2 )

Job No. 1 - Part I.2

I.2 - Study the social implications of major changes in the population.

- Identification of the main shortcomings in terms of equipment

Data
- Population in the municipality of Porto for the years 1970 - 2001 (INE: Census)
- Natural Population Estimates for 2011 (calculated values in I.1)
- Additional Data - No. of Families, Active Population and Unemployed population - for the years
1981, 1991 and 2001 (see table below)

Porto 1981 1991 2001

No. of Families - 99.324 100.696

Active Population 152.915 143.609 166.839

Unemployed Population 11.206 9.943 8.648

 – Data on public equipment: Schools EB1 (eg equipment for education) and Day Centers (Example of
equipment for Solidarity and Social Security)

Primary Schools - EB1

Salas (first cycle) (2004) 381
Students (2001) 9596
Day Centres
No. equipment 37
Total capacity 1881
Total users 1515

Methodology
For the period between 1970 and 2011:
- Study the distribution of age groups - [0-14] [15-64] and [65 +]
- Calculate and analyze some demographic indicators (see Annex)
To study the social implications of major demographic changes planned for 2011 in the design of
two types of equipment to the municipal level (EB1 Schools and Day Centers)
- Check the need for new Primary Schools EB1 and new Day Care Centers in Porto
- Comment results

Part I (I.1 + I.2) Labour should result in a report about 1000 words
(See AUT_11 - Template Trab1. I).

Bibliography of Support
- Study ' report for pre-testing the Social Network Port ' (taken from the site of CMP) and its Annex
B
- Text taken from 'Standards for Planning and Characterization Equipment Panels' DGOTDU
ANNEX I.2 - DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
Population Growth Rate
Definition: Population Change observed over a period of time, usually a calendar year, the
population of that period (usually expressed in %).
Calculation formula: TVP = [(P (t) - P (0)) / P (0)] * 100 - P (0) - Population at time 0, P (t) -
Population at time t

Indicators INE
Source: www.ine.pt (http://metaweb.ine.pt/sim/conceitos/conceitos.aspx)
Dependency Index for the Elderly
Definition: Ratio of elderly population and the population of working age, usually defined as the
ratio between the number of people aged 65 years and the number of people aged 15 to 64 years
(usually expressed per 100 (10 ^ 2) those with 15-64 years).
Formula: RDI = [(P (65 +) / P (15,64))] * 10 ^ n, P (65 +) - Population 65 years or more, P (15.64) -
Population aged 15 to 64 years.
Dependency Index for the Youth
Definition: Ratio of young population and the population of working age, usually defined as the
ratio between the number of people aged between 0 and 14 years and the number of people aged
between 15 and 64 years (usually expressed by 100 (10 ^ 2) those with 15-64 years).
Formula: IDJ = [P (0.14) / P (15.64)] * 10 ^ n, P (0.14) - Population aged 0 to 14 years, P (15.64 ) -
Population aged 15 to 64 years.
Total Dependency Index
Definition: The relationship between the young and the elderly and working age population, usually
defined as the ratio between the number of people aged between 0 and 14 years together with
people aged 65 years and the number of people aged between 15 and 64 years (usually expressed by
100 (10 ^ 2) those with 15-64 years).
Calculation formula: RTD = [[P (0.14) + P (65 +)] / P (15.64)] * 10 ^ n, P (0.14) - Population aged
between 0 and 14 years, P (65 +) - Population 65 years or more, P (15.64) - Population aged 15 to 64
years.
Aging Index
Definition: The relationship between the elderly and young populations, usually defined as the
ratio between the number of people aged 65 years and the number of people aged between 0 and
14 years (usually expressed by 100 (10 ^ 2) people from 0 to 14 years).
Formula: IE = [(P (65 +) / P (0.14)] * 10 ^ n, P (65 +) - Population 65 years or more, P (0.14) -
Population aged between 0 and 14 years.
Average Family Size
Definition: The ratio of the number of persons living in private households and the number of
private households living.
Active Population
 Definition: Individuals with a minimum age of 15 who, during the reference period, were the
manpower available for the production of goods and services that enter the economic circuit (both
employed and unemployed).
Activity Rate (15 and over) or Participation Rate (INE)
Definition: Rate that define the relationship between the active and working age population
(population aged 15 years and older).
Formula: PR (%) = (active Pop / Pop aged 15 and over) x 100
Participation Rate (forthcoming)
Definition: Rate that define the relationship between the active and working age population
(population between 15 and 64 years old).
Formula: PR (%) = (active Pop / Pop (15,64)) x 100
Activity Rate
Definition: Rate that is defined as the ratio of the working population to total population.
Formula: PR (%) = (Labour force / Total Population) x 100
Unemployment rate
Definition: Rate that is defined as the ratio of unemployed over the total working population.
Formula: TD (%) = (Unemployed population / Labour force) x 100