System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Abstract

An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is an information processing system that is

inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process
information. Neural networks are composed of a large number of highly
interconnected processing elements (neurons) working in parallel to solve a
specific problem. Neural networks learn by example. They cannot be programmed
to perform a specific task. The examples must be selected carefully otherwise
useful time is wasted or even worse the network might be functioning incorrectly.

Our project is an Application of Artificial Neural Networks-that is Prediction

of systems’ performance.

The definition of reliability of a system is usually stated in straightforward terms

as the probability that the system will not fail during delivery of service, or
alternatively, that the overall system performance figure of merit will not enter
failure mode between the time some service is requested and when that service is
delivered.

Prediction of this reliability for a no of computer systems in the organization

is the goal of our project.

This will eventually reduce the number of system failures in the organization &
aid in the recovery of data, leading to efficient functioning of the organization. It
can also be used for periodic performance analysis.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 1
Review of literature

1.1 Historical background:

The first Artificial Neural Network was invented in 1958 by psychologist Frank
Rosenblatt, called Perceptron, it was intended to model how the human brain processed
visual data and learned to recognize objects. Other researchers have since used similar
ANNs to study human cognition.

Eventually, someone realized that in addition to providing insights into the functionality
of the human brain, ANNs could be useful tools in their own right. Their pattern-
matching and learning capabilities allowed them to address many problems that were
difficult or impossible to solve by standard computational and statistical methods. By the
late 1980s, many real-world institutes were using ANNs for a variety of purposes.

Although ANNs are often referred to simply as neural networks, which name more
properly belongs to the biological brains on which they were originally modeled.

1.2 Artificial Neural Networks Theory

The key element is the novel structure of the information processing system. It is
composed of a large number of highly interconnected processing elements
(neurons) working in unison to solve specific problems. ANNs, like people, learn
by example. A neural network is a powerful data modeling tool that is able to
capture and represent complex input/output relationships. The motivation for the
development of neural network technology stemmed from the desire to develop an
artificial system that could perform "intelligent" tasks similar to those performed
by the human brain. Neural networks resemble the human brain in the following 2
ways:

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

1. A neural network acquires knowledge through learning.

2. A neural network's knowledge is stored within inter-neuron connection
strengths known as synaptic weights, both linear and non linear.

The true power and advantage of neural networks lies in their ability to represent
on-linear relationships and in their ability to learn these relationships directly from
the data being modeled. Traditional linear models are simply inadequate when it
comes to modeling data that contains non-linear characteristics.

More specifically, artificial neural networks are adaptive models that can learn
from the data and generalize things learned. They extract the essential
characteristics from the numerical data as opposed to memorizing all of it.
This offers a convenient way to reduce the amount of data as well as to form a
implicit model without having to form a traditional, physical model of the
underlying phenomenon.

In contrast to traditional models, which are theory-rich and data-poor, the neural
networks are data-rich and theory-poor in a way that a little or no a priori
knowledge of the problem is present. Neural networks can be used for building
mappings from inputs to ouputs of these kind of black boxes. The behavior of a
black box system is not usually known. This is illustrated in Figure 1. These kind of
systems occur often in practice.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Figure 1: Black box

1.3 Components of ANNs

Basic unit:

The perceptron: The perceptron is the basic unit of an Artificial Neural Network:
The detailed expression of a perceptron is as shown:

Input 0 Input 1

W0 W1

Wb +

fH(x)

Output

Definition of a node:

A node is an element which performs the function

y = fH(∑(wi.xi) + Wb)

Where Wi: weights

Xi: Inputs

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Y: system output

Wb: Bias

Neural networks are models which can be used to characterize the general case of
the phenomenon at hand giving us the ideas how the phenomenon behaves in
practice.

Hence:

1. A Neural Network generally maps a set of inputs to a set of outputs

2. Number of inputs/outputs is variable

The Network itself is composed of an arbitrary number of nodes with an arbitrary

topology

1.4 Recent applications:

Till recently Neural networks have been used for the following applications:

Given this description of neural networks and how they work, what real world
applications are they suited for?

Neural networks have broad applicability to real world business problems. In fact, they
have already been successfully applied in many industries.

Since neural networks are best at identifying patterns or trends in data, they are well
suited for prediction or forecasting needs including:

Sales forecasting

Industrial process control

Customer research

Data validation

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Risk management

Target marketing

But to give you some more specific examples; ANN are also used in the following
specific paradigms: recognition of speakers in communications; diagnosis of hepatitis;
recovery of telecommunications from faulty software.

Neural networks in medicine

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are currently a 'hot' research area in medicine and it is
believed that they will receive extensive application to biomedical systems in the next
few years. At the moment, the research is mostly on modeling parts of the human body
and recognizing diseases from various scans (e.g. cardiograms, CAT scans, ultrasonic
scans, etc.).

Neural networks are ideal in recognizing diseases using scans since there is no need to
provide a specific algorithm on how to identify the disease. Neural networks learn by
example so the details of how to recognize the disease are not needed. What is needed is
a set of examples that are representative of all the variations of the disease. The quantity
of examples is not as important as the 'quantity'. The examples need to be selected very
carefully if the system is to perform reliably and efficiently.

Modeling and Diagnosing the Cardiovascular System

Neural Networks are used experimentally to model the human cardiovascular system.
Diagnosis can be achieved by building a model of the cardiovascular system of an
individual and comparing it with the real time physiological measurements taken from
the patient. If this routine is carried out regularly, potential harmful medical conditions
can be detected at an early stage and thus make the process of combating the disease
much easier.

A model of an individual's cardiovascular system must mimic the relationship among

physiological variables (i.e., heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and
breathing rate) at different physical activity levels. If a model is adapted to an individual,
then it becomes a model of the physical condition of that individual. The simulator will

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

have to be able to adapt to the features of any individual without the supervision of an
expert. This calls for a neural network.

Another reason that justifies the use of ANN technology is the ability of ANNs to provide
sensor fusion which is the combining of values from several different sensors. Sensor
fusion enables the ANNs to learn complex relationships among the individual sensor
values, which would otherwise be lost if the values were individually analysed. In
medical modeling and diagnosis, this implies that even though each sensor in a set may
be sensitive only to a specific physiological variable, ANNs are capable of detecting
complex medical conditions by fusing the data from the individual biomedical sensors.

Instant Physician

An application developed in the mid-1980s called the "instant physician" trained an auto
associative memory neural network to store a large number of medical records, each of
which includes information on symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment for a particular case.
After training, the net can be presented with input consisting of a set of symptoms; it will
then find the full stored pattern that represents the "best" diagnosis and treatment.

Neural Networks in business

Business is a diverted field with several general areas of specialization such as

accounting or financial analysis. Almost any neural network application would fit into
one business area or financial analysis. There is some potential for using neural networks
for business purposes, including resource allocation and scheduling. There is also a
strong potential for using neural networks for database mining that is, searching for
patterns implicit within the explicitly stored information in databases. Most of the funded
work in this area is classified as proprietary. Thus, it is not possible to report on the full
extent of the work going on. Most work is applying neural networks, such as the
Hopfield-Tank network for optimization and scheduling.

Marketing

There is a marketing application which has been integrated with a neural network system.
The Airline Marketing Tactician (a trademark abbreviated as AMT) is a computer system
made of various intelligent technologies including expert systems. A feed forward neural

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

network is integrated with the AMT and was trained using back-propagation to assist the
marketing control of airline seat allocations. The adaptive neural approach was amenable
to rule expression. Additionally, the application's environment changed rapidly and
constantly, which required a continuously adaptive solution. The system is used to
monitor and recommend booking advice for each departure. Such information has a
direct impact on the profitability of an airline and can provide a technological advantage
for users of the system.

Credit Evaluation

The HNC Company, founded by Robert Hecht-Nielsen, has developed several

neural network applications. One of them is the Credit Scoring system which
increases the profitability of the existing model up to 27%. The HNC neural
systems were also applied to mortgage screening. A neural network automated
mortgage insurance underwriting system was developed by the Nestor Company.
This system was trained with 5048 applications of which 2597 were certified. The
data related to property and borrower qualifications. In a conservative mode the
system agreed on the underwriters on 97% of the cases. In the liberal model the
system agreed 84% of the cases. This is system run on an Apollo DN3000 and
used 250K memory while processing a case file in approximately 1 sec.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 2

Existing system
Most current systems use model-based prediction mechanisms where a model is
developed for the system using profiled data. The model is then used at runtime
to predict the performance of the system. The disadvantage of this approach is
that the model uses only a specified set of parameters and any change in the
environment beyond these parameters is not captured by the model. So the
predicted values reflect only a subset of the environment parameters. Besides,
the model is valid only for the server-class for which it was designed.

Another approach to performance prediction is using a time-based approach in

which the most recent values for the performance metric are used to forecast the
performance. This technique is based on an assumption of temporal correlation
which is seen to hold for most web based systems. But the time-based approach
will fail when the system performance is affected strongly by some
environmental parameter or when the system’s environment is changing very
quickly.

Hence the requirement is to design a new project, software that will use a new
approach which uses both time-based and parameter-based methods, and the
method best suited for the current situation is dynamically chosen. This approach
captures the effect of temporal correlation and environment conditions on system
performance and is effective for a wider range of servers than either of the
methods considered individually. That is its adaptability must be inculcated.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 3

Problem definition and scope of the project

3.1 Problem definition and scope

The current trend in most web servers is toward building big, complex,
distributed systems. Heterogeneity is a common feature of these systems. Other
than the inherent characteristics of the web-based servers, there are other
external factors like the client workload characteristics (flash crowds) and
network connections, which can significantly affect the performance of the
system. These factors create a very dynamic environment for the server and
hence, the requirement for adaptive algorithms and mechanisms that can sustain
the performance under a variety of conditions that the system might experience.
The robustness of the system measures the performance of the system over a
range of environment conditions characterized by a set of parameters. Thus,
robustness becomes an important criterion for designing algorithms for resource
provisioning and job scheduling. Comparing the robustness of different design
schemes is also an essential step in building a robust server. But computing
robustness of a system involves keeping track of the system performance over a
widely varying set of environment variables and introducing such functionality
can further increase the complexity of the already complex server code.

The problem is to predict the probability that the system will perform efficiently
without facing failures.

Goal of our project:

Prediction of performance values of the system or systems is a very
indispensable goal for the smooth functioning of the systems in the near future.
Most current systems use model-based prediction mechanisms where a model is

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

developed for the system using profiled data. The model is then used at runtime
to predict the performance of the system. The disadvantage of this approach is
that the model uses only a specified set of parameters and any change in the
environment beyond these parameters is not captured by the model. So the
predicted values reflect only a subset of the environment parameters. Besides,
the model is valid only for the server-class for which it was designed.

Another approach to performance prediction is using a time-based approach in

which the most recent values for the performance metric are used to forecast the
performance. This technique is based on an assumption of temporal correlation
which is seen to hold for most web based systems. But the time-based approach
will fail when the system performance is affected strongly by some
environmental parameter or when the system’s environment is changing very
quickly.

Hence the requirement is to design a new project, software that will use a new
approach which uses both time-based and parameter-based methods, and the
method best suited for the current situation is dynamically chosen. This
approach captures the effect of temporal correlation and environment conditions
on system performance and is effective for a wider range of servers than either
of the methods considered individually that is adaptability must be inculcated.
Hence our project is an attempt to achieve the above goal.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

The following figure shows the basic factors which affect the performance of
almost all computer systems.

Summary: The factors which determine the poor- performance or which may
lead to failures are:

• Insufficient CPU
• Insufficient Memory
• Insufficient I/O
• Network Constraints
• Software Constraints

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

3.3 Project scope:

The parameters affecting the performance are analysed as follows:
The parameters that certainly affect the performance of the systems our project
deals with are stated as follows:

1. Memory: The size of the RAM and speed is the most important factor.
2. Software constraints Platform factors:

Network For remote resources such as data sources, the speed and
connection capacity of the network connection is an important factor.
speed In addition to network capacity and throughput speeds,
the number of hops between nodes can greatly affect
performance. Secure connections, such as SSL (Secure
Sockets Layer) increase security but slow performance.
The n/w bandwidth is an imp factor
Distribution Performance is greatly affected by the way in which
of resources Data, Web Logic Server, and other Web Logic Platform
across servers resources are distributed across servers.
3. CPU Speed:
There are factors other than memory that affect the performance of a
particular computer operating under a particular workload. CPU speed,
particularly in regard to applications, can affect performance

4. Data related factors:

Data source type Some types of data sources offer higher performance
(such as relational databases) than other types (such
as application integrations or Web Services).
Data source size The size of the data source affects performance. In
general, the larger the data source, the longer it takes
to retrieve the query results. For example, a large
XML document takes longer to process than a small

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

XML document. For relational databases, indexing

can very substantially improve performance,
particularly for large databases.
Number of data For queries that access multiple data sources, data is
sources retrieved from each data source in sequence, one
data source at a time. This is true for all data source
types except application views, Web Services, and
custom functions (which are processed
asynchronously).

For application views, Web Services, and custom

functions you can configure the maximum number
of connections or the maximum number of
concurrent threads to be used. If queries use Web
Services, application views, or custom functions
extensively, then consider tuning this setting.

5. Business Parameters:
4.1 The peak working hours
4.2 The no of employees logging in at any pt in time
4.3 The no of concurrent users
4.4 The no of E-recharges done per unit time
4.5 The no of database applications processed
4.6 The rate at which the internet is surfed

Based on the results of the above analysis, the depth of the impact of each
parameter and their intertwined effect on the performance of the system as
expected is determined through iterative testing. The model can be then used to
diagnose failures and other performance related pitfalls.

Chapter 4

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Proposed system
4.1 The overview of the proposed system:

Parameters
affecting the
CPU utilization. 1: CPU utilization
ARTIFICIAL
NEURAL hits the peak
NETWORKS signaling failure
ENGINE
2 :CPU utilization
is within the
threshold

4.2 The system:

The system we propose to develop is an Intellectual Neural networks Engine
that will adapt itself according to the data supplied as input and provide the
desired output. It will necessarily be an analog input, digital output system.
Hence it will contain an A-D converter. This system can be accessed by any
systems dept person who will be authenticated before being granted, the access
to the software. He will have a direct to a simple GUI thru which he can feed the
systems data for testing of the prediction model.

The system will output 1 if the CPU utilization hits the peak and hence signaling
a failure, else the system will output a binary 0 that is if the CPU consumption
is within the limits.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

As it is an intellectual and adaptive simulation model, it can be alternatively

used to only determine the CPU consumption at any pt in time. This will
certainly give an idea about the load on the server and hence the need to modify
the processes and probably the distribution of data and resources.
Mathematical Representation:

x1 w1
Output
x2
n
Inputs

net = ∑ wi xi＋b
w
�2 i =1

y = f (net)
y
.. wn
xn
b
Inputs Weights Summation Activation Output

Inputs :
The data set provided in the form of excel files will be the input to the system.
This data set will contain the particular values of each of the parameters which
affect the performance of the system. This record will also include the accurate
time when this data was captured.

Weights.
There is a weight associated with each input. These weights are the units which
define the importance of each input. In our system the value of these weights
will be based on the depth of the impact of each of the system parameters on the
overall performance.

Threshold/Bias.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

A threshold weight, b(w0), associated with a bias value of x0(=1).

Summing Unit.
A summation unit which produces the weighted sum of the inputs ( net = w0x0
+ w1x1 + … + wnxn ).

Activation Function.
An activation function which determines whether the neural unit ‘fires’ or not.
This function takes the weighted sum, as its input and outputs a single value

Output :
As specified earlier output will be digital, signifying the probability of failure.

4.3 Evolution of the system

This system will be evolved as follows:

Block diagram of a two hidden layer multilayer perceptron (MLP).

The inputs are fed into the input layer and get multiplied by interconnection
weights as they are passed from the input layer to the first hidden layer.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Within the first hidden layer, they get summed then processed by a nonlinear
function (usually the hyperbolic tangent).
As the processed data leaves the first hidden layer, again it gets multiplied by
interconnection weights, then summed and processed by the second hidden
layer.
Finally the data is multiplied by interconnection weights then processed

Training process:
• Partition data series into:
• Training set
• Validation set (optional)
• Test set (optional)
• Typically, the training procedure is:
 Perform back propagation training with training set

After n epochs, compute total squared error on training set and validation set
 If consistently validation error á and training errorâ, stop training.
• Over fitting: Training set learned too well
• Generalization: Given inputs not in training and validation sets, able to
accurately forecast

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

The Back Propagation Training Cycle.

The tra

Backpropag

Back propagation:
• Back propagation training:
 First, examples in the form of <input, output> pairs are extracted from
the data series
 Then, the network is trained with back propagation on the examples:
Present an example’s input vector to the network inputs and run the
network sequentially forward
• Propagate the error sequentially backward from the output layer
• For every connection, change the weight modifying that connection in
proportion to the error

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

 When all three steps have been performed for all examples, one epoch
has occurred
 Goal is to converge to a near-optimal solution based on the total squared
error

After the Neural Network is trained as above it can be used to recognize

unknown set of data inputs and produce the desired output.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 5
Estimation and planning

5.1 Estimation:

Software project estimation is a form of problem solving; i.e., developing a cost

and effort estimate for a software project.

Since LOC based estimation are programming languages dependent, they penalize
well designed but shorter programs and their use in estimation models requires a
level of detail that is difficult to achieve before the analysis and design is to be
completed: so we are considering the FP based estimation that considers the
functionality delivered by the application as a normalization value.

FP-BASED ESTIMATION

FP-based estimation focuses on the information domain values such as inputs,

outputs, inquiries, files and external interfaces for CLASS. For the purpose of this
estimate, the complexity weighting factor is assumed to be average. The below
mentioned table presents the result of this estimate:

Information Domain Value Count Weight FP-count

Number of Inputs 7 5 35
Number of Outputs 3 3 9
Number of Inquiries 2 4 8

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Number of Files 3 10 30
Number of External Interfaces 2 5 10

Count-total132

The estimated FP is derived using the formula:

FP=COUNT-TOTAL*[0.65+0.01*ΣFi]

Where ΣFi=sum of all complexity adjustment values computed by estimating the

following weighting factors.

FACTOR VALUE
Backup and recovery 4
Data communication 2
Distributed processing 0
Performance critical 4
Existing operating environment 3
On-line data entry 0
Input transactions over multiple screens 0
Master files update online 3
Information values complex 3
Code design for reuse 4
Conversion/installation in design 3
Multiple installations 3
Applications designed for change 5
ΣFi=34

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Complexity adjustment factor [0.65+0.01*34] = ~1

Finally the estimated of FP is derived:

FP=count-total*[0.65+0.01*ΣFi]

FP=130.68

FP=131

Considering our average productivity is 141 FP/pm and labor rate is assumed to
be INR 200 per month, the cost per FP is approximately INR 1.5, making the
project cost INR 5000.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

EFFORT ESTIMATION:

Effort estimation is required to find the number of people required to complete the
project over the duration of the project. We are using an estimation model that
uses empirically derived formulas to predict effort as function of LOC or FP i.e.
the COCOMO model. We have used function points (FP) as a sizing option as a
part of model hierarchy.

Consider the following software instruction:

E=[LOC*B^0.333/P]^3*(1/t^4)

Where E=effort in person-month or person-years

t=project duration in months or years

B=special skills factor which increases slowly as the need of

integration, testing, quality assurance, documentation, and
management skill grows.

P=productivity parameter.

The above software equation is a dynamic multivariable model that assumes a

specific distribution of effort over the life of a software development project.

Therefore, for the effort estimation of Job-online site database we consider the
following inputs:

t= 5 months

LOC=4500 lines of code.

P=12000

B= 0.16

Therefore by substituting above values we get:-

E=3.8persons-months ~4 person per month

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Thus estimated effort required for PERSONAL DATA MANAGER is 4 persons

over a period of 5 months. The responsibilities for the various functions have been
allocated as follows:-

Analysis: - Aditya Bhandari, Mihir Ajmera

Design: -. Manasi Das, Rachana Rasania

Coding: -. Aditya Bhandari, Mihir Ajmera ,Manasi Das, Rachana Rasania

Testing: - Aditya Bhandari, Mihir Ajmera

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

5.2 Project Planning:

PHASES MODULES DUR START END DATE

A- DATE (2006)
TION (2006)

ANALYSIS 1. Collect 16th August 21st August

requirements 22nd August 27th August
2. Databases 20 28th August 31st August
3. Modules of the days 1st September 4th September
project
4. Technology

DESIGN G.U.I. 4th September 14th September

Database 15th September 25th September
Interface 17 days 26th September 5th October
Architecture 6th October 20th October

IMPLEME- Login Module 25 days 10th December 26th December

NTATION Prediction module 27th December 20th January

TESTING Unit Testing 21 14th January 21st January

Intermediate Testing days 22nd January 29th January
System Testing 30th January 3rd January

MAINTANEN
CE 1. Re-engineering 45 4th February 14th February
2. New Development days 15th February 25th February

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Project table:

Milestones Description Milestone Criteria Planned Date

M0 Start Project <1/08/06>
e.g.: Project goals and scope PRS or SRS reviewed
defined Stakeholders identified
Impl. Proposal reviewed
M1 Start Planning <8/08/06>
<milestone description, Scope and concept
e.g. Life Cycle Objectives LCO described
defined>
M2 Study theory i.e. Research <11/08/06>
<milestone description, Project started,1sr step
e.g. Artificial neural networks being study of the
concepts studied> underlying theory.
M3 Decide on the algorithm/model <18/09/06>
of neural network to be used
<milestone description, Architecture reviewed and
e.g. BPN algorithm> stable
M4 Preliminary design <22/0906>
<milestone description, Data strictures decided
e.g. decided preliminary pieces
of code.>
M5 Documentation <29/09/06>
<milestone description> documentation reviewed
M6 Training of Neural Network <1/11/06>
started

<milestone description Neural network trained

Eg. Calculate error=Desired
output-Observed output>
M7 Implementation <8/12/06>

<milestone description Software tested

Eg. Test the ANN for
prediction of the probability iof
error.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Milestones Description Milestone Criteria Planned Date

M8 Release product <2/02/07>
Software released
M9 Maintenance <9/02/06>
<milestone description > Modifications : weights
modified
M Publish Paper <2/03/06>
10
<milestone description: eg
technical paper presentation>

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 6
Development tools

The tools used for the development of the system are:

1. C editor-turbo C
2. Excel files for the data base

Hardware requirements :
1. 256 SD RAM
2. Intel Pentium 4 CPU 1.6 GHz
3. 60 GB Hard Disk

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 7
Operating environment
The ANN Algorithm followed is the BPN: Back Propagation Algorithm. This
algorithm is applied in the following operating environment.
The Training data set: A training data set consisting of the data records of the
system configurations for the past 5-6 months will be provided by the systems
department. This data set consists of Inputoutput pairs.
Historical analysis:
The first step is a historical analysis of the data set provided. Complex
relationships will be recognized in the data set, which will enable us to establish
trends and predict the system performance in the very near future.
Back Propagation:
Back propagation is carried out in order to accomplish the learning phase of the
ANN. The error between the observed and the desired output is calculated and is
back propagated iteratively in order to train the ANN.
After this phase the trained Neural Network is used to recognize unknown inputs.
The training makes the ANN more adaptive and Fault tolerance.

Supervised Learning:
We used supervised learning process in which we will have a historic data record
and training is performed on that data records.

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 8
Requirement Analysis
Behavioral Analysis:
The requirement analysis is depicted through the following use case description:

b a c k p ro p a g a t io n e rro r < < in c lu d e s > >

< < in c lu d e s > >

lo g in
a c c es s s y s te m da tab a s e

t ra in n e u ra l n e t w o rk s

s y s te m
a d m in is t ra t o r

p re d ic t fa ilu re p ro b a b ilit y
g e t c p u u t iliz a t io n

ACTOR: system administrator it has an access to the software.

USE CASES: loginbefore accessing the software the system administrator is
authenticated.
Train neural networkthe neural network has to be trained by
providing it data sets of the form inputoutput. back
propagation is used to train the network .
Predict failure probabilitythe trained neural network is used to
predict the probability for the further failure of the system.
Get cpu utilizationthe trained neural network being adapted can
also be used to obtain the CPU consumption at any point and
time

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 9
Preliminary design

The preliminary design of the system is depicted by the Data Flow Diagrams as
shown.:

Parameters
database Systems database

Login Id
Neural Authentication
Password. System
System networ administrator
administrator k
Training Data Engine CPU utilization
Required O/p Failure
Input probability
Parameters Desired O/p

Context level

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System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Level 1

System administration
1.0
Login
Login ID
Password
CPU utilization

Prompt to
proceed
2.0 Prompt to
authenti relogin
cation

System Admin
3.0
training

CPU utilization
System
Parameters

4.0 cpu
utilization

Failure Probability
No of e-recharges
No of concurrent
users
Data Base
Applications used 5.0
� prediction
of failure

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Level 2. training Desired

o/p
�Input Fwd for
pairs, process-
3.1 3.2
weights ing
error=desir
Accept
ed-
SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR desired
observed
o/p and
o/p
input pair

error
Prompt
tp enter
second
data set

3.4 3.3
Adjust Feedbac
weights kerror

35
 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Preliminary UID design

MODULE 1:

Please Enter
Administrator ID:

Password :

SUBMIT

Authenticating…

ACCESS GRANTED

36
 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

MODULE 2:

Start Training the ANN

Get CPU Utilization
Failure Diagnosis

Choice:

Time: Date: / /

MODULE 3:

Enter I/P - O/P Pair:

Desired O/P:

Observed O/P:

TRAINING

MODULE 4:

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 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Prediction:

Chance of Failure:

EVALUATION

38
 System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

Chapter 10
Bibliography
1.Aarts,E., and J.Korst,1989,Simulated annealing and Boltzmann Machines:A
Stochastic Approach to Combinatorial Optimization and Neural Computing,New
York:Wiley.
2.Aleksander,I., and H.Morton,1990.An Introduction to Neural
Computing,London:Chapman and Hall.
3. www.umr.edu/~annie

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System performance prediction using artificial neural networks

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