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THE ECONOMY
Recession Effects
In this issue of Political Report, we look at opinions about the Supreme Court, oil companies, immigration, and more. All
of these issues are attracting substantial public attention, but worries about the economy are still dominating concerns
on Main Street. There is substantial anxiety about a variety of day-to-day concerns such as having enough money to pay
normal monthly bills and being able to pay the rent or mortgage. More people are saying that they will delay their retire-
ment past age 65, and more are saying that they will have to rely on Social Security and not private sources of retirement
income. We also look at the pain of prolonged unemployment.
Q: Thinking of the last six months—that is, since November Q: And thinking of the last six months—that is, since
of last year—have . . . ? November of last year—has . . . ?
I or someone in my family has lost a job Someone I know personally
in the last six months as a result of other than a family member
economic conditions 29% has lost a job in the last six months 63%
Has not 69 Has not 36
Note: In May 2009, those responses were 28 and 70 percent, Note: In May 2009, those responses were 60 and 39 percent,
respectively. respectively.
Source: AP-GfK/Roper, latest that of May 2010. Source: AP-GfK/Roper, latest that of May 2010.
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 2
Anxieties about the Economy
People are more worried about a variety of economic factors than they were in 2001. In 2001 for example, a third were
worried about not being able to pay normal monthly bills. Today, more than four in ten are worried. A quarter in 2001
were worried about not being able to pay their mortgages or rent; in Gallup’s latest poll, 38 percent gave that response.
Q: Next, please tell me how concerned you are right now about each of the following financial matters, based on your
current financial situation. Are you . . . ?
Very/Moderately worried Not too worried/Not worried at all
Not having enough money
for retirement
66% 2010 32%
53 2001 43
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 3
Retirement Anxiety
Another indication of economic anxiety comes from surveys about retirement plans. More people than at any time since
1995 are saying that they will delay their retirement past age 65. The number saying they will rely on Social Security is up,
while the proportion saying they expect to rely on money in their 401(k)s, a work pension plan, or private saving is down.
50%
Under 65
40%
34%
30% At 65 29%
27%
20%
Over 65
10%
0%
1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Note: Asked of non-retired adults. Responses for categories under ages 55, 55–59, and 60–64 were combined into one category (under 65) in
the figure above.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of April, 2010.
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The Pain of Unemployment
In August 2009, the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce development at Rutgers, working with the online polling firm
Knowledge Networks, examined the demographic characteristics and attitudes of a large sample of people who were
unemployed. In March 2010, only 21 percent of those looking for work in the August survey had found a job. Two-thirds
remained unemployed, and 12 percent said they had left the labor market. As this survey and others show, males have
been hit especially hard by the downturn. In August 2009, 60 percent of the unemployed were male and 40 percent
female. Seventy-one percent of this group of men were still unemployed and looking for work in the March 2010 survey.
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 5
(continued from the previous page)
Q: Which of the following have you done since being unemployed?
Since being unemployed
Sold some of my possessions 37%
Received public assistance
like welfare or unemployment 37
Used food stamps 28
Went to a soup kitchen or free food pantry 17
Note: Responses are from those who were unemployed in the March 2010 survey. T
Source: Knowledge Networks for the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University and the State University of
New Jersey, March 2010.
50%
46%
40% Great deal
30% 31%
0%
1966 1968 1971 1973 1976 1978 1981 1983 1986 1988 1991 1993 1996 1998 2001 2003 2006 2008 2010
Source: Harris Interactive, latest that of March 2010. (continued on the next page)
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Q: Just your impression . . . over the past two decades, do you think the Supreme Court has . . . ?
Supreme Court has
Become more conservative over the past two decades 19%
Become more liberal 28
Has stayed about the same 43
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, April 2010.
Q: Do you think the Supreme Court is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Supreme Court
2010 2008 2007 2003
Too liberal 29% 25% 20% 19%
Too conservative 19 31 29 26
About right 40 33 37 46
Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of April 2010.
Q: Generally speaking, how would you rate ______ choice of _______as a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court . . . ?
—————————————————Rate choice of——————————————————
Kagan Sotomayor Alito Miers Roberts
(May 2010) (May 2009) (Nov 2005) (Oct 2005) (Jul 2005)
Excellent 13% 19% 17% 11% 25%
Good 27 28 26 33 26
Only fair 22 29 22 25 20
Poor 14 13 17 16 14
No Opinion 24 20 18 15 15
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of May 2010.
Q: Would you like to see President Obama nominate a new justice who would make the Supreme Court more liberal
than it currently is, more conservative that it currently is, or who would keep the court as it is now?
Would like a new justice who would make the Supreme Court...
33%
30% 30% 29%
27% 28%
26%
24% 24%
Note: On July 1, 2005, Justice O’Connor announced her resignation. On July 19, President Bush nominated John Roberts to succeed her. On
September 3, Chief Justice Rehnquist died. President Bush then announced that he would nominate Roberts to succeed the Chief Justice. In
October, he nominated Harriet Miers to take the O’Connor seat.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of May 2010. (continued on the next page)
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(continued from the previous page)
Q: For each item I name, please tell me whether to you personally it would be . . .
A factor in favor of a
Supreme Court nominee Against No difference
Protestant 7% 5% 83%
Woman 15 3 81
African American 16 3 81
Gay or lesbian 4 25 71
Someone with experience as a judge 70 5 24
Someone with experience outside the legal profession
for example in the field of business or politics 35 26 38
Note: Those people who said that someone with experience outside the legal profession would be a factor in favor of a nominee were asked
which of two kinds of experience would be preferable. Fifty-six percent said someone with experience in business would be, while 36 percent
said someone with experience in politics would be.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post, April 2010.
Q: I’m going to read you a list of characteristics and affiliations and I’d like you to tell me whether or not you would be
comfortable with a Supreme Court Justice who has that characteristic or affiliation. Would you be . . . ?
Comfortable with characteristic/affiliation
of next Supreme Court Justice Not comfortable
A Mormon 65% 30%
A Christian who takes the Bible literally 62 35
A libertarian 57 32
A Muslim 43 53
An atheist 39 58
A socialist 31 64
Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, April 2010.
Big Shots…
Q: I’m going to read you the names of several individuals and groups. Please tell me whether you have a generally
favorable or unfavorable opinion of . . . ?
Favorable opinion of
Laura Bush 68%
Barack Obama 53
Mike Huckabee 42
Mitt Romney 40
Sarah Palin 37
Newt Gingrich 32
Nancy Pelosi 28
Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, May 2010.
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Oil Companies and Public Opinion
While Americans think the leak in the Gulf of Mexico is a major environmental disaster, they also say that efforts to con-
trol it and prevent its spread will be successful. A bare majority sees it as an isolated incident; 35 percent see it as a
broader problem with offshore drilling. Neither President Obama nor the federal government is getting good marks for
handling the situation there. BP’s ratings are worse. Support for offshore drilling is down in all new polls.
Q: Now let me ask you about specific industries. Is your opinion of ____ industry highly favorable, or moderately favor-
able, or not too favorable, or rather unfavorable? (Roper)
Q: I am going to read you a list of companies and groups. For each one please tell me if you have a favorable or an
unfavorable opinion of each. How about oil companies? (Kaiser)
Q: Is your overall opinion of oil companies very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? (Pew)
Source: The Roper Organization, latest that of October 1997; PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of October 2005; Kaiser/Harvard/USA
Today, latest that of January 2008.
Q: Do you think the leak in the Gulf of Mexico is . . . ? Q: From what you have read or heard, do you think . . . ?
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, May 2010. Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, May 2010.
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(continued from the previous page)
Q: Do you think . . . ? Q: How would you rate the job______ has been doing . . . .?
The recent oil platform collapse and Responding to oil leak in the
oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is ————Gulf of Mexico————
most likely an isolated incident 51%
Mostly an indication of a broader The federal BP Obama
problem with offshore drilling 35 government
Source: CBS News, May 2010.
Excellent/good 33% 24% 38%
Only fair/poor 54 63 36
Q: Do you think . . . ? Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, May 2010.
Q: As I read some possible government policies to address America’s energy supply, tell me whether you would favor or
oppose each. First would you favor or oppose the government allowing more offshore oil and gas drilling in U.S.
waters? (PSRA/Pew Research Center)
Q: Would you favor allowing increased drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast, or do you think the costs and
risks are too great? (CBS)
Q: Do you favor or oppose increasing offshore drilling for oil and gas in U.S. coastal areas? (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics)
Q: Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose drilling for oil and gas in coastal areas around the United States?
(AP-GfK/Roper)
Q: Do you support or oppose a proposal to allow more drilling for oil off the coast of the United States? (NBC/Wall
Street Journal)
PSRA/Pew Fox/OD
Favor more Oppose Favor
Sept. 2008 67% 28% increasing Oppose
Apr. 2009 68 27 Apr. 2010 70% 22%
Feb. 2010 63 31 May 2010 60 33
May 2010 54 38
AP-GfK/Roper
CBS Favor
Favor Costs, risks increasing Oppose Neither
increased too great May 2010 50% 38% 10%
Aug. 2008 62% 28%
May 2010 46 41 NBC/Wall Street Journal
Support
allowing Oppose
May 2010 60% 34%
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 11
Immigration
Our friend at the Brookings Institution, demographer William Frey recently said that Arizona has the largest “cultural
generation gap” of any state because of the growth of the Latino population of children and young adults there. Eighty-
three percent of Arizona’s older people are white, but only 43 percent of its children are. All polls we have seen show that
people think immigration policy is a federal responsibility. At the same time, however, surveys show that people think
Arizona was right to act. In a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics question, a solid majority says that the Obama administration
should wait and see how the law works out; 15 percent say the administration should try to stop it.
Q: Do you think . . . ?
The Obama administration should try to stop the new Arizona immigration law 15%
Should wait and see how the law works 64
Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, May 2010.
Q: Which of the following statements comes closest to expressing your overall view of immigration policy?
——Views of immigration policy——
May 2010 May 2007
On the whole, our immigration policy works pretty well
and only minor changes are necessary to make it work better 8% 8%
There are some good things in our immigration policy,
but fundamental changes are needed 45 41
Our immigration policy has so much wrong with it that
we need to completely rebuild it 44 49
Source: CBS News/New York Times, latest that of April–May, 2010.
(continued on the next page)
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(continued from the previous page)
Q: Based on what you know or have read about the new Arizona immigration law, do you . . . ? (Gallup)
Q: Do you favor or oppose the new Arizona immigration law, or don’t you know enough about it to say? (Fox News/
Opinion Dynamics)
Q: As you may know, the state of Arizona recently passed a law that gives the police the power to question anyone
they suspect is in the country illegally, requires people to produce documents verifying their status if asked, and allows
officers to detain anyone who cannot do so. Do you think this law goes too far in dealing with the issue of illegal immi-
gration, doesn’t go far enough, or is it about right? (CBS/New York Times)
Q: Considering everything, would you say you approve or disapprove of Arizona’s new illegal immigration law?
(PSRA/Pew)
Q: The Arizona law makes it a state crime to be in the U.S. illegally. It requires local and state law enforcement officers to
question people about their immigration status if they have reason to suspect a person is in the country illegally, making
it a crime for them to lack registration documents. Do you support or oppose this law? (NBC/Wall Street Journal)
New Arizona immigration law
———Gallup*——— ——Fox News/OD—— —————CBS/NYT—————
Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Too far Not far About
enough right
April 39% 30% – – – – –
May – – 34% 21% 36% 9% 51%
——————Pew—————— ————NBC/WSJ————
Approve Disapprove Support Oppose
May 2010 59% 32% 64% 34%
Note: *Of those who had hear or read a great deal, fair amount, or not much about the immigration law just passed in Gallup’s poll, the
responses were 51 percent favor, 39 percent oppose.
And in Arizona . . .
Q: Next, a new Arizona law may soon go into effect regarding one’s U.S. citizenship status and right to be in the U.S.
The new law would require police officers in Arizona to question anyone about their immigration status if an officer
suspects the person may be in the country illegally, including anyone who looks or sounds foreign. Those found to be
here illegally could be jailed up to six months and fined $2,500. Do you favor or oppose the governor signing such a
law if it is sent to her by the legislature?
———————————Arizonans’ response—————————————
Favor new immigration law Oppose
Total 52% 39%
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 13
Poll Potpourri
GM on the Upswing?
Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups, and I’d like you to rate your feelings
toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.
———————————————General Motors, or GM———————————————
May 2010 December 2008
Positive 37% 25%
Neutral 31 23
Negative 27 39
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, May 2010.
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