Weekly Report

21st Mar - 26th Mar 2011

AGRI MAR
AGRI MARKET

>>
“SPICES SURGES ON EXTENDED BUYING”

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 J E E R A (APR)
JEERA RISES ON EXTENDED BUYING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The Jeera extended the gains on active buying last Ÿ Fresh buying Script Levels
week. Futures started the week on positive note on Ÿ Strong demand
fresh buying. However, prices took sharp corrections R3 18100
on profit selling as overall trend has not changed at R2 17010
spot yet. Nonetheless, prices gain resumed the R1 16530
upside during the end and prices ended on positive PP 15910
note. The Jeera April futures are projected to MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 15430
continue the gains on extended fresh buying next Last week Jeera did our target of 17000 S2 15820
week. Reports of stockiest buying amid some export above the level of 16650 and even closed
S3 13720
inquires may support the prices. However, rising above it. Last week Jeera remained bullish
arrivals might limit the gains later in the week. Daily throughout the week and was not
arrivals at spot market of Unjha were around sustaining at lower levels. For the next
23,000-24,000 bags (Each bag= 55Kg.) Rising week Jeera has resistance at 17500 and
arrivals at spot market are keeping the prices under support at 16900.
pressure. As per trade sources, export demand
might pick up in coming days as overall stock of
Jeera is declining on international front. As per data
released by Spices board, Jeera exports during April-
STRATEGY
January 2010-11 stood around 26,000 tons down
by 36% compared to same period last year. Though Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one
overall production forecast is down by 10-25% Y/Y should use the strategy of sell on higher
still poor export demand from gulf countries are levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains
likely to weigh on prices in short term. According to below the level of 15900 then we can
derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open expect the level of 15600, and if it sustains
interest all are rising. Market is attracting larger above 16420 then we can see the level of
numbers of traders willing to open positions from 16700.
the long side and hold them. Traders are more
confident that prices will continue to climb in favor
of a working long.

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 G U A R S E E D (APR)
GUARSEED RISES ON STRONG BUYING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The Guar seed and gum futures rallied to hit 4% Ÿ Strong buying Script
intraday upper limit on Thursday on strong buying
Levels
Ÿ Increased demand
interest last week. Limited supply of the produce at R3 3441
major spot markets and strong demand from end- R2 3146
users added bullish sentiment to the market. Market
moved higher on expectation of further removal in
R1 3044
additional margin. A rally in Crude oil prices also PP 2851
gave underlying support to the Guar market as gum MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 2749
is used in oil exploration. The Guar seed and Guar Last week Guarseed did our target of 2810 S2 2556
gum futures are forecast to trade on a positive note above the level of 2760 and even closed
next week on follow through buying. Traders and S3 2261
above it. Last week Guarseed was in a
investors are buying futures anticipating revival in
demand in the near-term. Limited supply of the bullish trend and even closed near to its
produce in major spot markets is likely to push up weekly high. For the next week Guarseed
the futures prices. The Guar seed requirement from has resistance at 3020 and support at
the exporters and the millers has almost met for the 2840.
current year. As per the APEDA sources Guar gum
exports during the April-November 2010 surged by
139% to `1,446 crore from `603 crore in the
previous fiscal. Spot markets are likely to show
positive trend on active buying interest from STRATEGY
stockists and millers. Derivative analysis (rise in price,
volume and open interest) is suggesting a positive For next week in Guar seed traders should
trend for the next week. go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
Guar seed sustains above the level of 3020
we can see the level of 3090, and below
2840 it can touch the level of 2775.

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 S O YA B E A N ( A P R )
SOYBEAN SLIGHTLY FALL ON SELLING PRESSURE
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
NCDEX April Soybean futures fell sharply in the Ÿ Selling pressure Script
beginning of the week due to huge losses in
Levels
Ÿ Weak overseas market
overseas market. NCDEX April Soybean prices R3 2616
opened at Rs 2306 a quintal and touched a low of Rs R2 2472
2270.50/quintal, then bounced back in tandem
R1 2421
with overseas market as short covering and Soybean
futures at e-CBOT also provided support to the bulls PP 2328
MARKET OVERVIEW
an hour before closing the market, There is news S1 2277
that China's Soybean acreage may fall 11% this year Last week Soybean did our target of 2280 S2 2184
as compared to last year due to higher sowing below the level of 2330 but did not
a c re a g e o f c o t t o n t h i s y e a r.
S3 2040
sustained below it and we saw good
USDA's Monthly supply & demand Report: The US buying coming at lower levels in the later
Department of Agriculture revised 2010-11 global part of the week. For the next week
Soybean output estimate to 258.4 million tonnes,
Soybean has resistance at 2440 and
up by 2.3 million tonnes from its February estimate
of 256.10 million tonnes. Brazil's soy crop output at
support at 2270.
a record 70.0 million tonnes , up by 1.5 mln tn from
the February estimate, due to timely rains in the
producing regions of the country. It has raised
output estimate for China as well. Argentina's soy
STRATEGY
output has been kept unchanged at 49.5 million
tonnes. Estimate of Soybean carryover stock in the Soybean is moving in a downward channel
US was also kept unchanged at 3.82 million tonnes. on charts and one should look for selling
The USDA raised global 2010-11 oilseeds opportunities at higher levels, if Soybean
production estimate by 2.4 million tonnes from the sustains below the level of 2270 we can
February projection to 444.2 million tonnes.
see the level of 2210, and on the upside if it
Oilseeds carryover stocks are now seen at 58.33
sustains above the level of 2440 we can see
million tonnes, marginally up from 58.21 mln tn in
February. Soybean at 2485 level.

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 C H A N A (APR)
CHANA ENDS HIGHER ON STRONG BUYING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The Chana futures staged a strong rally last week Ÿ Fresh buying Script
rebounding from its previous weakness on
Levels
Ÿ Improvement in demand
emergence of fresh buying, Positive trend in the spot R3 2701
market gave underlying support to the futures R2 2616
market. With the increasing inflow of the produce,
R1 2569
stockists have started procuring and stocking Chana
at lower levels. Removal of 2% sales tax by PP 2531
Rajasthan government also gave support to the
MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 2484
market. The rise in volume and open interest is Last week Chana was in a very tight range S2 2246
indicating strong buying interest. The Chana futures and was not sustaining at lower levels and
are forecast to trade on a positive note on follow S3 2361
we saw buying coming at lower levels, the
through buying. Improvement in demand from
price is facing support at 2490 and is not
traders and stockists at lower level is likely to render
support to the futures market. Stockists and traders able to sustain below the psychological
are procuring Chana from the spot market as the level of 2500. For the next week Chana has
prices are at very comfortable level and markets are resistance at 2580 and support at 2490.
witnessing inflow of good quality produce. Full
swing arrivals from Rajasthan are expected across
the spot markets from April. The exemption of sales
tax of 2% levied on Chana in Rajasthan might
further attract physical market players in the near STRATEGY
term. The kantewala variety arrivals from across M.P Overall trend of Chana is bearish and one
are in full swing and quality which is of good quality
should go for selling at higher levels
also.
strategy in it. For the coming week if
Chana sustains below 2490 level we can
see it at 2450 and above 2580 we can
expect the level of 2620.

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver *
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-APR-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 16048 15952 16575 15720 16041 57960 -7 17502 83,710.76

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-APR-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 22821 22795 23738 22286 23478 42226 657 7504 89,493.93
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-APR-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 10470 10304 10600 9860 9900 25275 -570 7580 23,218.14
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2706 2715 2953 2702 2942 1433700 236 165300 337,167.29
GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 7624 7720 8500 7640 8460 116025 836 25495 81,401.82

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2520 2522 2558 2494 2528 438020 8 77340 97,222.33
SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2363.5 2349.5 2379 2270.5 2370 487500 6.5 205950 105,549.67

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 614.9 611.65 621 595 620.7 747790 5.8 90460 425,769.01

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/20KGS 2751 2743 2772 2665 2766 346350 15 63340 86,208.01

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1178 1178 1235 1153 1234 323120 56 83160 29,981.09
GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 996 994.5 1017 994.5 1006 19880 10 8870 4,468.24
POTATO NCDEX 20-APR-11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 622.6 625 625 532.8 540 146130 -82.6 16845 7,338.64

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1163.6 1155 1194.5 1145 1188.6 18098 25 2457 37,260.57
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-APR-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1179.4 1177 1179 1163 1166.6 7770 -12.8 9330 800.61
MENTHA OIL MCX 31-MAR-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1157.5 1162 1305.8 1151.9 1298.3 18967 140.8 6344 83529.91
CARDAMOM MCX 15- APR -11 Cardamom RS/KG 1108.7 1115 1153 1076.7 1137.2 6355 28.5 1578 6792.21

* Turnover Till Friday

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 16041 -0.04

NCDEX PEPPER 23478 2.88
NCDEX TURMERIC 9900 -5.44
NCDEX GUARSEED 2942 8.72
NCDEX GUARGUM 8460 10.97
NCDEX CHANA 2528 0.32
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2370 0.28
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 620.7 0.94
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2766 0.55
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1234 4.75
NCDEX GUR 1006 1.00
NCDEX POTATO 540 -13.27
NCDEX KAPAS 1188.6 2.15
NCDEX WHEAT 1166.6 -1.09
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1298.3 12.16
NCDEX CARDAMOM 1137.2 2.57

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report

Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
MENTHA OIL 31-MAR-11 1298.3 12.16 POTATO 20-APR-11 540 -13.27
GUARGUM 20-APR-11 8460 10.97 TURMERIC 20-APR-11 9900 -5.44
GUARSEED 20-APR-11 2942 8.72 WHEAT 20-APR-11 1166.6 -1.09

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
JEERA (APR) 17822.00 16967.00 16504.00 16112.00 15649.00 15257.00 14402.00
PEPPER (APR) 26071.33 24619.33 24048.67 23167.33 22596.67 21715.33 20263.33
TURMERIC (APR) 11600.00 10860.00 10380.00 10120.00 9640.00 9380.00 8640.00
GUARSEED (APR) 3367.67 3116.67 3029.33 2865.67 2778.33 2614.67 2363.67
GUARSGUM (APR) 9920.00 9060.00 8760.00 8200.00 7900.00 7340.00 6480.00
CHANA (APR) 2654.67 2590.67 2559.33 2526.67 2495.33 2462.67 2398.67
SOYBEAN (APR) 2556.83 2448.33 2409.17 2339.83 2300.67 2231.33 2122.83
REFINED SOYA OIL (APR) 664.23 638.23 629.47 612.23 603.47 586.23 560.23
MUSTARD (APR) 2948.33 2841.33 2803.67 2734.33 2696.67 2627.33 2520.33
COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (APR) 1371.33 1289.33 1261.67 1207.33 1179.67 1125.33 1043.33
GUR (JUL) 1050.83 1028.33 1017.17 1005.83 994.67 983.33 960.83
POTATO (APR) 750.33 658.13 599.07 565.93 506.87 473.73 381.53
KAPAS (APR) 1275.03 1225.53 1207.07 1176.03 1157.57 1126.53 1077.03
MENTHA OIL (MAR) 1559.80 1405.90 1352.10 1252.00 1198.20 1098.10 944.20
CARDAMOM (APR) 1274.90 1198.60 1167.90 1122.30 1091.60 1046.00 969.70

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