March 10, 2011

Indian market % change Back to boredom

Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Sensex 18,470 0.2 (4.0) (9.9)
Nifty 5,531 0.2 (4.1) (9.8)
“Look at market fluctuations as your friend
BSE 100 2,268 0.3 (5.0) (10.5) rather than your enemy; profit from folly
BSE 200 7,097 0.3 (5.2) (10.8) rather than participate in it.” - Warren Buffett
CNX Midcap 7,677 0.6 (8.3) (13.3)
BSE Smallcap 8,010 0.8 (8.4) (17.2) It has been a topsy-turvy week so far, with the key
Developed market % change
indices oscillating in a tight range amid tepid
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Dow Jones 12,213 (0.0) 7.4 5.5
volumes. Today, we expect a slightly weak start on
Nasdaq 2,752 (0.5) 5.2 3.7 the back of fresh declines in key global markets
S&P 500 1,320 (0.1) 7.1 5.0 and indecisive sentiment on Wall Street.
FTSE 5,937 (0.6) 2.2 0.6
CAC 3,994 (0.6) 3.5 5.0 The near-term outlook is uncertain given the global
DAX 7,132 (0.5) 2.4 3.1
geopolitical risks and the flare-up in crude. The
Hang Seng* 23,716 (0.4) 2.4 3.0
Nikkei* 10,474 (1.1) 2.6 2.4
market appears to be in a limbo and could stay
S&P/ASX200* 4,714 (1.1) (0.7) (0.7) that way till there is material relief in the ongoing
* Markets are open political turmoil in the Middle-East. A close below
Emerging market % change 5490 could reverse the short term uptrend.
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Shanghai Comp 2,971 (1.1) 4.6 5.8
Brazil Bovespa 67,264 (1.1) (3.0) (2.9)
The US markets closed flat in a quiet session.
Mexico Bolsa 36,450 (0.6) (3.0) (5.4) Stock indices in Europe closed down at the end of a
Kospi* 1,982 (1.0) (0.2) (3.4) choppy session. Asian markets are mostly in the
Micex 1,779 (0.1) 6.1 5.4 red. Japanese shares are leading the fall in the
Taiwan* 8,669 (0.9) (0.6) (3.4) region after its GDP shrank more than estimated in
Straits*
* Markets are open
3,073 (0.6) (3.5) (3.7)
the last quarter.
Institutional activity
(Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD Brent and Nymex crude oil futures remain elevated
FIIs 368 (300) (2,426) (8,341) amid relentless fighting in Libya and lingering
MFs (243) - 1,370 2,307 worries over supplies from that region. Libyan oil
FIIs Prov. 131 output is reportedly down by two thirds. Copper
MFs Prov. 113
closed at an 11-week low while gold rose.
Commodities % change
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Sensex intra-day
Crude (US$/bbl) 104.8 0.4 19.4 14.7
Gold (US$/oz) 1,429 (0.1) 3.1 0.6 18,600
Copper (US$/mt) 9,257 (2.7) 3.0 (4.1)
Aluminium (US$/mt) 2,544 (0.7) 9.4 3.4 18,500
Zinc (US$/mt) 2,245 (5.1) (2.1) (8.1)
Advance/Decline stocks 18,400
(Nos) A B S Total
Adv 128 1,064 244 1,645 18,300
Dec 74 788 167 1,218
18,200
Unch 2 79 17 114
A/D ratio (x)* 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4
*A/D excluding Unch 18,100
9:00 10:05 11:10 12:15 13:20 14:25 15:30
Trade value
(Rs cr) % chg
Cash NSE 11,514 15.6
ADR/GDR
Cash BSE 3,208 17.2
Latest (US$) Price % chg % Prem/Disc
Total Cash 14,722 16.0
Dr. Reddys 35.5 0.0 (1.2)
Delivery (%) 37.0 -
HDFC Bk 159.3 0.0 8.3
Derivatives 108,981 19.9
ICICI Bk 45.8 (0.2) (0.6)
Currency % change
ITC 3.8 (0.2) (0.1)
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Infosys 68.7 (0.3) (0.1)
Rs/US$ 45.01 (0.2) 0.5 (0.7)
Ranbaxy 10.0 0.0 (0.7)
Rs/EUR 62.62 (0.3) (4.6) (4.5)
Reliance 44.2 1.6 0.2
US$/GBP 1.62 0.0 2.6 3.8
Wipro 13.7 0.5 36.2
US$/EUR 1.39 0.1 5.2 4.0
SBI 118.4 (0.3) 1.4
Yen/US$ 82.76 0.0 1.4 (2.0)
Tata Motors 26.4 1.3 2.2
Bond market
Sterlite 14.8 (0.4) 299.3
Last Close (%) Bps chg
L&T 34.9 (0.5) (0.1)
10yr Gsec 7.93 (0.03)
Call rate 6.85 0.00
News

Corporate snippets Economy snippets

 RIL natural gas D-6 output from KG basin may  Car sales rise 25% in February to 189,000
rise 25% in April. (ET) units. (ET)
 Infosys is searching for acquisitions to add  Iron ore export down to 75.11mt in April- Jan
companies that specialize in providing FY11. (ET)
healthcare and government services. (ET)
 Direct tax collection up 20.7% in April-
 RCom has completed the procedure for February. (ET)
obtaining an Rs87bn loan from China
 Premium on tea jumps 50% on rising demand.
Development bank to part finance cost of 3G
(ET)
spectrum and equipment purchase (ET)
 India got US$2.16bn FDI in wholesale cash-
 Three PE funds set to invest Rs14.40bn in GMR
and-carry sector. (BL)
Airport. (ET)
 Tata Motors to roll out new buses by early
next fiscal. (BL)
 Cairn-Vedanta deal likely to get cabinet nod by
next week. (ET)
 Hero Investments, promoter of Hero Honda
has raised Rs9bn by pledging to Axis Trustee
Services. (ET)
 Dr Reddy’s Labs may launch 3 new drugs in
US market in next financial year. (BS)
 Canara Bank is raising upto US$440mn via
share sale to institutional investors. (ET)
 Tata Power may raise capacity by 1,300MW.
(BL)
 HDFC may sell part of non-core investments
over next 6-12 months for Rs40bn. (BS)
 Bank of India hikes its deposit rates by 25-75
bps. (BL)
 Central Bank of India proposes to raise about
Rs25bn from rights issue. (ET)
 Hanung Toys to buy stake in US-based Cody
Direct Corp. (BS)
 Dr Reddy’s Labs to issue Rs5.2bn debentures.
(BS)
 PFC to set up subsidiary for renewable energy
sector. (BS)
 Dhanlaxmi Bank raises base rate by 50 bps.
(BS)
 HDFC to raise Rs1.5bn via bonds. (BS)
 Kemrock Industries plan to set up facility for
producing carbon fibres. (BL)

Market Mantra
Technicals

Nifty price/volume TCS (SELL, between Rs1152-1160, Target

NSE Nifty [N59901] 5542.40, 5563.30, 5477.45, 5531.00, 608224576 0.18%
Price Avg3(S,100,S,200,S,50) Avg(S,20) Log IRIS
Rs1092): After formation of ‘counter attack bear’
6400 pattern on candlestick on last Friday , stock has
26
6200
violated important support of 50DMA which was
30 prevailing at levels of Rs1,146. From the change of
6000
polarity principle, a support once broken
5800
20
correspondingly turns into major resistance and we
5600 expect stock to resume its downward trend after
31
5400 testing Rs1146.Adding to it, on line chart stock has
Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com
been making a broadening pattern which is
5200
Vol Cr inherently considered as bearish pattern and could
100
trigger sharp sell off in the counter in the near
term. We advise going short on TCS Mar
50.00
Futures in the range of Rs1,152-1,160 with
10:O N D 11:J F M Dly
stop loss of Rs1,182 for Target of
Rs1,092.(Duration 5 days)
Nifty oscillated in the range of 5,480-5,560 to
finally end with marginal gains on Wednesday with Chambal Fertlizers (SELL, below Rs72.50,
breadth tilting towards positive bias. With Target Rs67): After rallying from the lows of
appearance of pattern resembling to ‘Hanging Man’ Rs67, the buying momentum in the counter is
on candlestick, trend appears to have indecisive faltering out. The stock is struggling to close above
and close below 5490 levels could void the short its 200-DMA in recent attempts. Moreover, on the
term uptrend. daily chart, the stock is moving in a channel
trading near the upper-end of the channel.
Support/Resistance levels Formation of multiple tops around this level is
Close Support Resistance likely to reignite selling pressure in the stock in the
Nifty 5,531 5,490 5,560 near term. Based on above mentioned technical
Sensex 18,470 18,295 18,595 evidences, we recommend traders to short
Chambal Fertilizers March Futures below
Abnormal change in delivery Rs72.50 with stop loss of Rs75 for target of
Stock NSEDely (%) Prev NSEDely (%) Price % chg Rs67.
Heg 47.0 17.7 (1.9)
Stcindia 17.1 6.7 0.1
Tv-18 31.3 12.6 1.9
Sundrmfast 70.9 31.9 2.9
Dlf 35.3 16.2 1.3

Positive breakout Negative breakout

10 Days Price % 20 Days 10 Days Price % 20 Days
Company name CMP MVG avg chg MVG avg Company name CMP MVG avg chg MVG avg
Dlf Ltd 225.3 219.3 2.7 229.1 Ansal Props & In 36.4 37.2 (2.3) 38.0
Tata Motors Ltd 1,162.0 1,132.5 2.6 1,154.3 Mic Electronics 24.8 25.3 (2.0) 24.3
Mahanagar Tele 42.4 41.3 2.5 42.2 United Spirits 1,081.3 1,101.9 (1.9) 1,112.6
Kgn Inds Ltd 147.8 144.3 2.4 147.2 Torrent Pharma 517.7 527.2 (1.8) 539.4
Idbi Bank Ltd 138.1 134.9 2.3 134.4 Indiabulls Finan 142.2 144.6 (1.7) 144.9
Jindal South Wes 941.2 920.7 2.2 952.1 Sks Microfinance 606.7 615.7 (1.5) 628.7
Axis Bank Ltd 1,300.0 1,272.0 2.2 1,264.6 Icsa India Ltd 126.4 128.1 (1.4) 127.5
Bf Utilities Ltd 726.9 711.7 2.1 722.8 Indian Metals 559.1 565.5 (1.1) 578.9
Hero Honda Motor 1,533.5 1,503.3 2.0 1,486.4 Tube Inv India 125.2 126.5 (1.1) 128.8
Hcl Tech Ltd 465.0 456.1 2.0 462.9 Bajaj Holdings A 755.0 762.6 (1.0) 751.1

Market Mantra
Technicals…

Pivot table Top gainers

CMP Supp Supp Company Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg
Company (Rs) 1 2 Pivot Res 1 Res 2
Reliance Communi 99.4 9.6 (31.6)
ABB 726 715 704 725 737 748
Mcleod Russel 248.9 9.0 15.2
ACC 1,004 993 985 1,001 1,013 1,024
Kpit Cummins Inf 163.6 8.7 12.9
Ambuja Cem 128 125 123 127 130 134
Mahindra Forging 64.4 7.9 (25.5)
BHEL 2,042 2,034 2,023 2,045 2,053 2,062
Raymond Ltd 288.1 7.1 (23.5)
BPCL 552 539 522 556 568 581
Bharti 333 330 326 333 336 339
Top losers
Cairn 342 339 333 345 348 352
Company Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg
Cipla 302 298 292 304 307 311
Niit Tech Ltd 183.5 (3.4) (7.4)
DLF 225 224 222 226 227 229
Iol Netcom Ltd 8.7 (3.3) (27.8)
Gail 441 435 431 440 446 452
Lakshmi Energy 43.0 (3.0) (40.7)
Grasim 2,312 2,299 2,284 2,313 2,327 2,340
Cairn India 342.4 (2.7) 2.9
HCL Tech 465 460 455 465 469 474
United Breweries 476.5 (2.5) (5.5)
HDFC Bank 2,206 2,188 2,162 2,213 2,232 2,250
Hero Honda 1,538 1,504 1,482 1,526 1,560 1,594
Hindalco 213 211 209 213 215 217
Volume Toppers
Company Price (Rs) Price % chg Vol % chg
HUL 280 278 274 281 283 285
Golden Tobacco 81.0 (1.1) 3,495.6
HDFC 673 664 655 674 682 691
Paramount Comm 4.5 1.1 2,741.4
ICICI Bank 1,035 1,024 1,017 1,032 1,043 1,054
Kpit Cummins Inf 163.6 8.7 1,421.0
Idea 62 61 61 62 62 63
Birla Corp Ltd 310.0 (0.5) 1,260.0
Infosys 3,096 3,067 3,034 3,100 3,129 3,157
Merck Ltd 580.8 0.3 1,116.7
ITC 172 171 169 172 173 174
L&T 1,570 1,557 1,542 1,571 1,585 1,599
M&M 669 664 659 669 674 679 Sector watch
Maruti 1,266 1,256 1,243 1,270 1,279 1,289 Price % chg
Nalco 460 453 446 461 468 475 BSE Indices Last close 1 day 1 week 1 mth 50 DMA
NTPC 178 176 174 179 180 182 BSE Bankex 12,458 0.2 8.5 (1.5) 13,070
ONGC 271 267 263 271 275 280 BSE Realty 2,106 1.7 1.0 (22.1) 2,822
Powergrid 98 98 97 98 99 99 BSE HC 5,852 (0.4) 0.7 (9.2) 6,404
PNB 1,076 1,065 1,048 1,082 1,093 1,105 BSE Metals 15,874 0.3 4.0 0.8 16,580
Ranbaxy 453 447 441 454 460 466 BSE Oil & Gas 9,673 0.3 5.0 (4.9) 10,222
Rcom 99 93 90 97 103 109 BSE Auto 8,855 0.7 7.8 (10.5) 9,563
Reliance 994 973 958 989 1,009 1,030 BSE IT 6,276 (0.1) 0.5 0.7 6,319
Reliance Infra 620 607 598 616 629 642 BSE Power 2,598 0.5 3.7 (8.5) 2,890
Reiance BSE FMCG 3,507 0.0 9.8 (0.2) 3,536
Power 125 122 120 124 126 129 BSE PSU 8,588 0.1 3.7 (5.6) 9,302
Satyam 65 64 63 65 67 68 BSE Cap Goods 12,750 0.4 3.0 (14.8) 14,665
Siemens 857 854 852 857 860 863 BSE CD 5,791 0.9 7.2 0.5 6,201
SBI 2,627 2,608 2,580 2,637 2,656 2,675 BSE 200 2,268 0.3 5.5 (5.0) 2,422
SAIL 155 153 152 155 157 159 BSE 500 7,097 0.3 5.4 (5.2) 7,620
Sterlite 167 165 162 167 169 171 BSE Mid Cap 6,605 0.7 4.8 (9.0) 7,541
Sunpharma 416 408 398 419 426 433 BSE Small Cap 8,010 0.8 4.7 (8.4) 9,406
Suzlon 48 47 46 48 49 49 CNX 500 4,404 0.3 5.4 (5.1) 4,722
Tata Com. 215 211 208 214 218 221
TCS 1,127 1,117 1,107 1,128 1,137 1,146
Tata Motors 1,163 1,152 1,140 1,164 1,176 1,187
Tata Power 1,232 1,221 1,210 1,233 1,243 1,254
Tata Steel 613 606 599 614 620 627
Unitech 38 37 36 37 38 39
Wipro 451 445 441 449 455 461
Zee 126 125 124 126 127 129 Note:
A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. Ideas given under the ‘Technicals’ section are for intraday purpose or up
These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. to a period of three trading sessions. Stocks recommended under this
Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the heading are not necessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell list.
stock or index.

Market Mantra
Deals

Bulk deals
Date Scrip name Client name B/S Qty ('000) Avg price (Rs) Deal size (Rs m)
9/3/2011 Voltamp Transformers Limi Jm Equity Fund - 96 S 60 586 35.1
9/3/2011 Manali Petrochemical Ltd Southern Petrochemical Industries S 54,405 12 650.1
9/3/2011 BGIL Films Enaam Securities S 92 6 0.6
9/3/2011 Krishna Deep Lincoln Pharmaceuticals Limite D B 18 46 0.8

Insider trades
Transaction Qty Shares Holding after
Company name Acquirer date B/S ('000) transactions (%) transaction (%)
Dabur India Ltd Pradip Burman 22/02/2011 B 6.0 0.0 0.0
Electrosteel Castings Ltd Mayank Kejriwal 24/02/2011 B 39.5 0.0 1.3
Electrosteel Castings Ltd Mayank Kejriwal 25/02/2011 B 420.3 0.0 0.0
Everest Kanto Cylinder Ltd Puneet Khurana 24/02/2011 B 15.0 0.0 3.3
Everest Kanto Cylinder Ltd Puneet Khurana 25/02/2011 B 15.0 0.0 3.3
Fortune International Ltd Anu Shrivastava 26/02/2011 S 444.0 6.3 0.0
Fortune International Ltd Meenu Shrivastava 26/02/2011 S 583.7 8.3 0.0
Fortune International Ltd Radhika Shrivastava 26/02/2011 S 432.0 6.1 0.0
Fortune International Ltd Rekha Shrivastava 26/02/2011 B 1,459.7 20.7 57.2
Kemrock Industries And Exports Ltd Kalpesh Patel 1/3/2011 B 5.4 0.0 26.1
Kemrock Industries And Exports Ltd Kalpesh Patel 1/3/2011 B 5.5 0.0 26.1
Kemrock Industries And Exports Ltd Kalpesh Patel 28/02/2011 B 6.6 0.0 26.0
Kemrock Industries And Exports Ltd Kalpesh Patel 28/02/2011 B 7.5 0.0 26.0
Premier Explosives Ltd A N Gupta - B 1.8 0.0 14.8
Premier Explosives Ltd A N Gupta 25/02/2011 B 1.0 0.0 14.8
Radhe Developers India Ltd Ashish P Patel 21/02/2011 B 303.7 0.0 1.5
Radhe Developers India Ltd Ashish P Patel 22/02/2011 B 75.0 0.0 1.5
Radhe Developers India Ltd Madhuben P Patel 22/02/2011 B 33.5 0.0 0.0
Shri Chlochem Ltd Archana K Amin 24/02/2011 B 3.5 0.0 19.1
Suave Hotels Ltd Hotel Relax Pvt Ltd & PACs 25/02/2011 B 2,461.9 15.8 28.7
Suave Hotels Ltd Vinita Patodia & PACs 25/02/2011 B 500.0 3.2 3.4
Surya Roshni Ltd Lustre Merchants Pvt Ltd 28/02/2011 B 42.7 0.0 2.0

FII’s trades
Scrip name Volume ('000) Price (Rs) Prem/Disc (%)
Union Bank 9.4 336.1 1.3
Bank of Baroda 6.6 965.0 6.1
PNB 0.6 1172.0 8.8

Market Mantra
Derivatives

Nifty volatility Index declined to 23.28 from Nifty snapshot

23.67, decreased by 1.65%. Current Previous % Chg
Near month price 5,542 5,536 0.1
 Total Nifty futures added 0.98mn shares in Near month Pre/Disc 10.8 15.4 (30.1)
open interest. Mid month price 5,561 5,556 0.1
 Call open interest for March series shed 1.23mn Mid month Pre/Disc 30.1 35.3 (14.9)
shares in Open Interest. OI* (‘000) 27,174 26,187 3.8

 Put open interest for March series shed .28mn

Volume (‘000) 25,540 21,435 19.2
PCR (OI) 1.1 1.1 1.1
shares in Open Interest. PCR (Vol) 1.0 1.2 (10.8)
 Nifty put call ratio of open interest now stands Roll-over (%) 19.3 19.8 (2.2)
at 1.27 vs 1.3.
 Nifty put call ratio of volume now stands at FII derivative data
0.97 vs 1.02. (Rs cr) Buy Sell Net Contracts OI % chg
Index Futures 1,350 1,256 94 8,047 2
 Maximum open interest in calls for March series Index Option 5,463 5,838 (375) (21,910) (1)
is at 5,700 strike prices. Stock Futures 1,022 990 32 (2,708) (0)
 Maximum open interest in Puts for March series Stock Options 284 334 (50) 3,451 10
is at 5,400 strike prices.
 Nifty March 5,600 Call added 0.79mn shares in Institutional activity
open interest. (Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD
FII's 367.5 (299.6) (2,425.7) (8,341.0)
 Nifty March 5,400 Put shed 0.32mn shares in MF's (242.5) - 1,370.0 2,307.0
open interest. FIIs Prov. 131.2
MFs Prov. 113.0
Strategies
 Long Dr.Reddy March Future in range of Overall market
Value %
Rs1598 - 1602 for the Target price of Rs1628 9-Mar-11 8-Mar-11 7-Mar-11 chg
with a Stop loss placed at Rs1587. Index Future (Rs cr) 16,888 14,545 19,230 16.1

Lot size: 250 Stock Future (Rs cr) 13,323 11,360 12,073 17.3
Index Options (Rs cr) 75,932 62,546 83,128 21.4
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs7,500 and
Stock Options (Rs cr) 2,838 2,444 2,671 16.1
net maximum loss of Rs3,750. Index Future (Cont '000) 656 564 754 16.5
Stock Future (Cont '000) 534 446 478 19.7
 Short Neyveli Lignite Ltd March Future in Index Options (Cont '000) 2,734 2,258 2,187 21.1
range of Rs104.5 – 103.5 for the Target price Stock Options (Cont '000) 110 91 206 20.7
of Rs99.5 with a Stop loss placed at Rs106. PCR (OI) 1.0 1.0 1.1 (4.3)
PCR (VOI) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Lot size: 2000
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs10,000 and
net maximum loss of Rs5,000.

Nifty open interest chart Nifty strikes open interest

Nifty 12,000 OI in ('000) Call Put
900 OI & Vol 6,500

750 (lacs) 10,000

6,000
600 8,000
5,500
450 6,000
5,000
300 4,000

150 4,500 2,000

0 4,000 0
10-Dec-10 7-Jan-11 4-Feb-11 4-Mar-11 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900

Sector-wise OI
6 % Chg
3
0
-3
Textile
Power

Sugar
Metals
FMCG

Total Future
Real Estate
IT

Logistics

Others
Cement

Pharma
goods &
Automobiles

Telecom
Media
Capital

Fertilizers
Banking

Oil & Gas

Infra

Market Mantra
Derivatives…

Futures open interest gainers

Scrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)
Nagarconst 4,138.0 17.5 101.5 1.2 1,540.0 19.0 (0.8)
Rcom 31,604.0 14.4 100.1 9.6 46,736.0 422.3 (0.7)
Iob 1,660.0 13.1 144.7 2.5 1,642.0 125.5 1.5
Bhusanstl 784.0 12.4 427.9 2.6 974.5 37.3 3.9
Chennpetro 371.0 11.1 191.2 (1.0) 442.0 1,239.4 (1.7)
Cipla 3,950.0 10.8 303.3 (1.6) 1,847.0 45.1 (1.8)
Jswsteel 4,531.0 10.6 974.5 3.3 3,781.3 113.2 (7.4)
Albk 1,593.0 10.6 207.7 0.2 670.0 28.4 (0.8)
Beml 281.5 8.9 668.2 3.4 103.8 150.0 (5.8)
Relcapital 5,847.0 8.8 506.9 3.8 5,963.5 136.6 (3.6)
Nationalum 749.5 8.6 440.5 1.2 266.5 86.4 19.9

Futures open interest losers

Scrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)
Sail 6,557.0 (11.4) 155.8 2.1 3,828.0 13.2 (0.5)
Hindpetro 7,762.5 (3.6) 320.6 (1.4) 3,302.5 268.0 (1.0)
Sail 6,557.0 (11.4) 155.8 2.1 3,828.0 13.2 (0.5)
Litl 11,524.0 (9.1) 38.9 1.8 4,248.0 (19.6) (0.1)
Polaris 2,850.0 (7.0) 190.0 (0.9) 1,956.0 (50.7) (1.1)
Federalbnk 1,090.0 (6.3) 381.1 1.0 273.0 (42.0) (1.0)
Dlf 18,824.0 (5.5) 226.2 1.4 7,715.0 33.6 (0.8)
Crompgreav 913.0 (5.1) 261.2 3.2 690.0 223.9 (1.3)
Chamblfert 10,304.0 (4.7) 72.8 2.2 6,312.0 1.4 (0.2)
Triveni 1,938.0 (4.4) 101.2 (0.2) 572.0 8.7 0.3
Colpal 113.3 (3.8) 845.9 (0.1) 17.8 (49.3) 2.4

Most active stock calls Most active nifty calls

% Volume
Scrip Strike OI ('000) change CMP(Rs) ('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)
Reliance 1000 1,136.8 3.2 26.5 7,002.0 5600 6,468.9 14.0 79.3 22,784.2
Ifci 60 9,564.0 15.6 0.9 5,270.0 5500 5,352.9 (0.1) 133.0 15,674.9
Ifci 55 10,632.0 1.6 2.3 3,111.0 5700 5,932.0 1.0 42.3 10,700.7
Tatamotors 1200 475.0 3.2 28.0 2,125.0 5800 4,909.9 7.1 19.8 7,160.4
Rcom 100 2,702.0 3.0 5.5 3,012.0 5900 4,774.3 0.5 8.4 3,947.7
Tatasteel 620 714.0 3.3 16.9 1,943.0 6000 2,906.7 1.6 3.8 2,646.3
Reliance 1020 333.3 22.4 17.9 2,229.0 5400 3,066.9 0.5 199.2 2,081.2
Sbin 2700 260.4 18.4 58.0 1,585.0 6100 1,261.6 (1.4) 2.0 726.6
Suzlon 50 9,572.0 10.9 1.2 2,044.0 5500 862.5 22.1 202.7 535.8
Reliance 980 364.8 3.4 37.9 1,645.0 5800 1,315.5 2.3 60.4 501.0

Most active stock puts Most active nifty puts

% Volume
Scrip Strike OI ('000) change CMP(Rs) ('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)
Reliance 980 271.3 113.2 18.8 1,943.0 5400 8829.4 (3.5) 72.6 17342.1
Tatasteel 600 935.0 7.5 13.6 1,515.0 5500 5053.0 5.2 105.0 16089.1
Reliance 1000 292.3 10.4 27.0 1,583.0 5300 7812.3 (3.3) 49.1 8937.6
Reliance 940 318.0 1,379.1 13.0 1,292.0 5200 5638.9 (1.1) 33.1 6143.5
Reliance 960 230.5 11.5 12.5 1,231.0 5100 5104.7 (5.2) 21.5 4281.0
Sbin 2600 129.3 12.8 69.5 777.0 5000 5439.9 6.7 13.0 3978.8
Sbin 2500 135.5 20.3 36.6 782.0 5600 2169.9 15.7 149.5 2934.6
Tatamotors 1100 338.0 9.2 25.3 859.0 4900 3013.2 (6.8) 7.8 2528.3
Reliance 940 232.8 9.1 8.5 889.0 4800 2968.4 (2.7) 5.0 980.7
Tatamotors 1150 151.5 9.8 45.1 645.0 5700 725.3 6.6 211.0 465.4
*OI= Open Interest

Market Mantra
Mutual Funds

Fund focus
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund Invest
Fund manager Sankaran Naren Min investment Rs5,000
Latest NAV Rs104.6 Entry load Nil
NAV 52 high/low Rs112/87 Exit load 1% before 1 year
Latest AUM Rs2,785cr Benchmark S&P CNX Nifty
Class Equity – diversified Asset allocation Equity (81%), Cash (19%)
Options Growth & dividend Expense ratio 1.85%

Top Recommended Funds (Absolute returns (in %) are based on previous close)
Assets NAV
Equity – Diversified (Rs Cr) (Rs) 1wk 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr
ICICI Prudential Dynamic - (G) 2,785 104.6 (0.1) 3.1 (2.6) (0.8) 12.0 136.1 42.8 112.5
Reliance Equity Opportunities – (G) 2,365 15.7 (0.1) 3.5 (4.7) (10.4) 8.8 125.6 37.7 --
HDFC Top 200 (G) 9,409 203.8 (0.1) 4.2 (5.5) (4.5) 13.6 159.8 50.8 125.0

Equity – Thematic
Reliance Pharma Fund (G) 544 50.9 -- 0.1 (6.7) (2.8) 12.1 205.2 131.2 164.4
ICICI Pru Tech Fund (G) 228 18.5 0.8 0.6 (1.8) 9.0 26.4 244.3 40.7 76.4
Franklin FMCG Fund (G) 46 63.8 0.7 7.8 (2.9) (5.6) 20.6 122.0 70.8 82.4

Equity – Tax saving

Fidelity Tax Advantage (G) 1,296 21.4 (0.1) 5.3 (4.6) (5.4) 15.5 147.7 43.3 111.5
HDFC Tax Saver (G) 2,767 222.2 (0.4) 2.2 (7.2) (8.1) 11.0 165.6 44.1 81.8
ICICI Prudential Tax Plan (G) 1,320 134.8 (0.1) 2.8 (5.3) (6.5) 8.5 178.8 42.3 65.0

Hybrid
HDFC Prudence Fund (G) 5,761 204.5 0.1 3.5 (3.5) (5.1) 14.2 153.2 55.1 124.2
HDFC MIP – LTP (G) 9,996 22.6 0.1 1.3 (0.2) 0.1 8.1 48.6 39.0 68.3
Reliance RSF - Balanced (G) 806 21.2 (1.1) 1.4 (6.7) (10.0) 5.7 127.6 51.9 108.2

Debt – Money market

HDFC Cash Mgmt Fund – SP (G) 4,310 20.4 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 6.2 11.3 21.1 40.5
SBI Magnum Insta Cash (G) 4,387 21.7 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.6 6.2 10.7 20.2 38.3
Reliance Money Manager (G) 10,000 1,316.2 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 6.0 11.4 21.4 --

Debt – Floating rate

Reliance Floating Rate Fund (G) 1,846 144.7 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.7 6.4 11.6 21.7 --
Kotak Floater LTP (G) 2,339 15.5 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.6 6.3 12.0 22.1 42.7
Tata Floater Fund (G) 5,923 14.6 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.7 6.5 12.0 22.3 42.1

NFO Update
#
Fund name Open date Close date Type Class
ICICI Prudential Series 56 - 1 Year Plan A 10-Mar 15-Mar CE Debt - FMP
Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan-Series CU 8-Mar 16-Mar CE Debt - FMP
UTI FMP- Yearly Series - March 2011 (YFMP 03 / 11) 16-Mar 17-Mar CE Debt - FMP
ICICI Prudential Series 55 - 6 Months Plan C 9-Mar 18-Mar CE Debt - FMP
ICICI Prudential Series 55 - 13 Months Plan A 16-Mar 22-Mar CE Debt - FMP
#OE: Open Ended, CE: Close Ended

Recent Actions
 Fidelity FMP- Series IV- Plan D declares dividend. The quantum of declaration will be 40%. The record date is March 14, 2011.

 DSPBR Balanced Fund declares 20% dividend. The record date is March 11, 2011.

 Sundaram Balanced Fund declares 60% dividend. The record date is March 11, 2011.

 Templeton India Equity Income Fund declares 7% dividend. The record date is March 11, 2011.

 Reliance Mutual Fund declares 20% dividend under Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund and Reliance Regular Savings Fund -
Equity Option. The record date is March 11, 2011.

 HDFC Top 200 declares dividend. The quantum of declaration will be 40%. The record date is March 10, 2011.

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund is subject to market risk, please read the offer document carefully before investing.

Market Mantra
House Recommendations

House Recommendations
The large cap Buys and Sells are relative outperformer and underperformer bets vis-à-vis the Nifty
respectively. Reduce portfolio weight in stocks with Sell rating. Midcap Buys are based on absolute return
expectations.

Top Large-cap Buys

Stock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
Bharti Airtel Telecom Neutral 333 1,262.7
L&T Infrastructure Positive 1,570 956.2
M&M Auto Positive 669 410.8
REC NBFC Positive 242 238.6
SBI Banking Positive 2,627 1,668.4
Sterlite Industries Metals Neutral 167 560.2
Tata Steel Metals Neutral 613 588.0
Source: India Infoline Research

Best Mid-cap Buys

Stock Sector CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
OnMobile Telecom 224 13.2
Petronet LNG Oil & Gas 116 87.0
Radico Khaitan Breweries 133 17.6
Unity Infra Infrastructure 57 4.2
Yes Bank Banking 275 95.6
Source: India Infoline Research

Top Large-cap Sells

Stock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
ACC Cement Negative 1,004 188.6
NALCO Metals Neutral 460 296.6
Source: India Infoline Research

Market Mantra
Economy

GDP growth (Quarterly) Inflation

GDP (LHS) GDP Growth % (RHS) 12.0 (%)
14,000 13.0
(Rs bn) (%)
13,000 10.0
12,000
11.0 8.0
11,000
10,000 6.0
9,000 9.0
4.0
8,000
7,000 2.0
7.0
6,000
0.0
5,000
4,000 5.0 (2.0)
Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
G-Secs yield M3 growth
10 Yr Gsecs 5 Yr Gsecs M3 (LHS) M3 yoy % (RHS)
9.5 65,000 25.0
(%) 1 Yr Gsecs (Rs bn) (%)
60,000
8.5
20.0
55,000
7.5
50,000 15.0
6.5 45,000
40,000 10.0
5.5 `
35,000
5.0
4.5
30,000
3.5 25,000 0.0
May-09

May-10
Mar-09

Nov-09

Nov-10

Mar-11

Nov-09

Mar-10
Sep-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Jul-09

Jul-09

Jul-10

CRR, Repo IIP and Six key infra industry growth

7.0 (%) CRR Repo 12 IIP growth Six key infra ind growth (%) 20.0

6.5 18.0
10
16.0
6.0 14.0
8
12.0
5.5 6 10.0
8.0
5.0 4
6.0
4.0
4.5 2
2.0
4.0 0 0.0
May-09

May-10
Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Sep-10

Jan-11
Nov-09

Nov-10

Mar-11
Apr-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Jan-11
Jul-09

Market Mantra
 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45

FDI

0
200
400
600
800

(400)
(200)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Sep-05
Jan-09
Mar-09
Mar-06
Mar-09

(US$ bn)
May-09

(Rs bn)

Market Mantra
Fiscal deficit
(US$ mn)
Economy…

May-09 Sep-06
Jul-09
Jul-09 Mar-07
Sep-09
Sep-09
Sep-07
Nov-09
Nov-09
Mar-08
Trade deficit (Quarterly)

Jan-10 Jan-10
Sep-08
Mar-10 Mar-10

May-10 May-10 Mar-09

Jul-10 Sep-09
Jul-10
Sep-10
Sep-10 Mar-10
Nov-10
Nov-10 Sep-10
Jan-11
0
5
10
15
20

150
200
250
300
350
(10)
(5)

20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Feb-09
Sep-05
Jan-09
Apr-09
Mar-09 Mar-06
Jun-09
(US$ bn)

(US$ bn)

May-09
Jul-09 Sep-06
Jul-09
Sep-09
Aug-09 Mar-07
Oct-09
RBI forex reserves

Oct-09

Currency movement
Dec-09 Sep-07

INR/USD
INR/GBP
Dec-09
Feb-10
Feb-10 Mar-08
Mar-10
Mar-10
May-10 Sep-08
May-10
Jul-10
Jul-10 Mar-09
Aug-10
Current account deficit (Quarterly)

Sep-10

INR/EURO
Oct-10 Sep-09

INR/100 Yen
Oct-10
Nov-10
Mar-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11 Sep-10
Event Calender

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

March 01 March 02 March 03 March 04 March 05
- India Jan exports - US total vehicle - US initial jobless - US change in
yoy% sales claims nonfarm payrolls
32.4% vs 36.4% 13.3m vs 12.5m 368k vs 391k 192k vs 36k
- India Jan - US challenger - Nonfarm - US
imports yoy% job cuts yoy productivity unemployment
13.1% vs -11.1% 20.5% vs -46.1% 2.6% vs 2.6% rate
- US construction 8.9% vs 9%
spending mom% - US Factory
-0.7% vs -2.5% orders
3.1% vs 0.2%

March 07 March 08 March 09 March 10 March 11 March 12

- US consumer - US wholesale - US trade balance - India Jan IIP
credit inventories - US initial jobless data
$5.01b vs $6.09b 1.1% vs 1% claims - US advance
retail sales
- US business
inventories

March 14 March 15 March 16 March 17 March 18 March 19

- India Feb WPI - US empire - US housing - US IIP data
data manufac starts mom% - US consumer
- Import price - US building price index mom
index mom permits mom% - US leading
- FOMC rate indicators
decision

March 21 March 22 March 23 March 24 March 25 March 26

- US existing - US house price - US durable US GDP qoq
home sales mom index goods
- US initial jobless
claims

March 28 March 29 March 30 March 31

- US pending - US consumer - US Mortgage US initial jobless
home sales mom confidence applications claims
- Challenger job US factory orders
cuts yoy

Blue: Economic data, Black: results

Market Mantra
Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:

Buy – Absolute return of over +10%

Market Performer – Absolute return between -10% to +10%
Sell – Absolute return below -10%

Published in 2011. © India Infoline Ltd 2011

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