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BlackRock has not acquired any rights or licence to reproduce the trademarks, logos or images set out in this document. International Investment Forum London 2010
The trademarks, logos and images set out in this document are used only for the purposes of this presentation.
BlackRock’s Natural Resources Team, London
As at January 2010
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BlackRock Natural Resources Team Fund Range
Long/Short Income
US$0.1bn US$0.5bn
Desmond Cheung, Director and portfolio manager, is a member of BlackRock's Natural Resources
Equity team. He is responsible for covering the agriculture sector and China.
Prior to joining BlackRock in 2007, Mr. Cheung worked at Hang Seng Bank Ltd for five years, a major
subsidiary of HSBC Group in Hong Kong, as a credit and relationship manager specialized in financing
metal companies in the Greater China region.
Mr. Cheung earned a BA degree in accounting from the Chinese University of Hong Kong in 2000, and
an MBA degree from Judge Business School, Cambridge University in 2006.
Richard Davis, Managing Director and portfolio manager, is a member of BlackRock's Natural
Resources Equity team. Mr. Davis' service with the firm dates back to 1994, including his years with
Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (MLIM), which merged with BlackRock in 2006. At MLIM, he was a
member of the Natural Resources team. Prior to joining MLIM, he worked as a geologist for three
years in Ireland and worked on mineral exploration and resource evaluation projects in base metals,
gold and diamonds.
Mr. Davis earned a BA degree in geology from Trinity College in 1989, and an MSc degree in mineral
exploration from Imperial College in 1990.
• In line with the other funds managed on their team, Desmond and Richard will also be supported by Tom Holl and the broader BlackRock
natural resources team in their analysis and portfolio management. The natural resources team have been investing in many areas of the
Agriculture sector for many years and are able to draw on extensive contacts and experience.
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Fund Structure
Structure SICAV
UCITS / Non-UCITS UCITS
Domicile Luxembourg
Base Currency USD
Dealing Frequency Daily
Minimum Initial Investment General: US$5,000
Minimum Holding General: US$5,000
Minimum Deal Size US$1,000
Initial charge: 5%
Fees (“A” share class)
Annual management charge: 1.75%
The World Agriculture Fund seeks to maximise total return. The fund invests globally at
least 70% of its total assets in the equity securities of agricultural companies.
Investment Objective Agricultural companies are those which are engaged in agriculture, agricultural chemicals,
equipment and infrastructure, agricultural commodities and food, bio-fuels, crop
sciences, farm land and forestry.
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I. Why BGF World Agriculture Fund?
6
Why BGF World Agriculture Fund?
7
I. Why BGF World Agriculture Fund?
8
Growth Cycle of the Agriculture Sector
Short-Term Long-Term
Improvement in
Farming Economics
Upward pressure
On
Commodity Price
9
What Drives the Increase in Agricultural Commodities Prices?
Rising affluence
Lead-time and cost
& Dietary
In Farm Investment
Improvement
10
Demand Growth: Macro drivers Leading to Acceleration of Agricultural Demand
2.0
1997-2006: 1.9%
1.8
1988-1997: 1.6%
1.6
1979-1988: 1.5%
1.4 Feed
demand
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6 Food
demand
0.4
0.2
0.0
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
9,000
8,000
7,000
Population (bn)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
30
20
10
500
3,000
5,500
8,000
10,500
13,000
15,500
18,000
20,500
23,000
Japan & Korea Brazil China India
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images set out in this document are used only for the purposes of this presentation.
Food Demand Growth (III): Biofuels Competing for Both Food and Farmland
• Governments around the world have targets to grow Fuel Ethanol Share in Global Grains Supply (2008)
biofuels production in order to achieve fuel diversity 4.49%
• “Food for fuels” is still growing from a low base and
has ample room for growth
• Surge in grains demand as biofuels feedstock requires
substantial increase in cropland, which will provide a
sustainable support to farmland prices
Projected land use for ethanol production Biodiesel Share in Global Oilseed Supply (2008)
7.63%
Global Soybean Production & Inventory (1990-2010F) Slowdown in Global Cereal Yield Growth
80 3500 3.5
25%
2500 2.5
60
20% 2000 2.0
50
1500 1.5
40
15% 1000 1.0
30
500 0.5
20 10% 0 0.0
1990/91
1993/94
1996/97
1999/00
2002/03
2005/06
2008/09
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Yield growth (% y/y, 10 yr Mav, rhs) World cereal yield (lhs)
Source: USDA Source: FAO, ISAAA (International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech
Applications), Credit Suisse research
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Supply Constraints (II): Land Available – But Requires Investment of Time and Capital
0.4
Pastures
26% 0.3
0.2
Other Uses
62% 0.1
Permanent 0
Crops
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010F
Source: ADM, USDA, ACTI
1%
Source: FAO, Potash Corp
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BlackRock has not acquired any rights or licence to reproduce the trademarks, logos or images set out in this document. The trademarks, logos and
images set out in this document are used only for the purposes of this presentation.
How High are Agricultural Commodity Prices?
• Agricultural commodity prices remain low comparing to other commodities
• Long-term improvement in commodity prices will attract increase in production and derived demand for farm
inputs, capital items and farmland
140
114
120 107
95
100
71 72
80
62
60
35 38
40
15
20 5 8 9
0 1 3
0
Palladium
Gold
Platinum
Nickel
Uranium
Lead
Coffee
Tin
Zinc
Sugar
Silver
Copper
Crude Oil
Corn
Cocoa
Soybeans
US Natural Gas
Wheat
Cotton
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Why We Favour Equities Versus Commodities
19
Investing in Agriculture: Commodities or Equities?
• Agricultural equities and commodities tend to be correlated, but they can diverge from time to time
• Commodities funds rely on rising commodities prices to generate returns
• Equities investment depends on improving farm income & reinvestment into the farming sector
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Jul-09
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Apr-09
Mar-09
May-09
Aug-09
S&P GSCI Agriculture Index (Commodities) DAXglobal Agribusiness Index (Equities)
31/12/06
31/03/07
30/06/07
30/09/07
31/12/07
31/03/08
30/06/08
30/09/08
31/12/08
31/03/09
30/06/09
30/09/09
31/12/09
not always be the case
• More exposed to short-term volatility, e.g. crop failure
Source: Reuters
under adverse weather
• Structural weakness in fighting contango along forward Rebound in wheat production & rising wheat inventory since 2007
curve 700 40%
680
660
35%
640
620
600 30%
580
560
25%
540
520
500 20%
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Production (M MT - LHS) Stock-to-Use (% - RHS)
Source: USDA
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Reasons for Investing in Agricultural Equities
22
Equities – Flexible Exposure to Various Agricultural Sub-sectors
While viewed as a basket, the agricultural sector consists of various sub-sectors that
have different drivers and behave differently at various stages of the cycle
Land & Farming Farm Inputs
• Farm operators benefit from rising value of crops and • Farmers are increasingly investing in
improvement in productivity the application of technology and
• Potential capital gain potential in farmland value optimal agronomical practices to boost
• Emerging investment opportunities yield and benefit from rising crop prices
from vehicles in farmland • Recurrent application of fertilizer and
development in South America and advanced seeds is required
Eastern Europe • Capital investment in equipment and
• Also including forestry land owners / irrigation as a result of sustainable
operators improvement in farm income
BlackRock has not acquired any rights or licence to reproduce the trademarks, logos or images set out in this document. The trademarks, logos and
images set out in this document are used only for the purposes of this presentation.
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I. Why BGF World Agriculture Fund?
24
Investment Universe
Forestry Ag Equipment
14% 15%
Biofuels
19% Ag Science
22%
Fertilizer
30%
* Source: BlackRock
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BGF World Agriculture Portfolio – Top 10 Positions
• Approximately 50 holdings
• Market capitalization ranges from US$40B to US$100m
Sugar
ForestryFood Processors 6% Africa
2% 1% 1%
Asia
Livestock 19%
3% North America
Land & Farming Fertilizer
55%
4% 34%
Ag Equipment Middle East
5% 3%
Australasia
1%
Edible Oil
14% South America
5%
Agribusiness Europe
Ag Science
16% 16%
15%
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Key Investment Themes in the Agricultural Sector
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BlackRock has not acquired any rights or licence to reproduce the trademarks, logos or images set out in this document. The trademarks, logos and
images set out in this document are used only for the purposes of this presentation.
Key Investment Themes in the Agricultural Sector
Fertilizer Increase of farm inputs application with rising farm income in the U.S.
19,000 40,000
• Increasingly sophisticated agronomy recommends
18,000
regular fertilizer application to produce optimal crop 35,000
17,000
yield 16,000 30,000
• Ambition of developing countries to boost domestic 15,000
25,000
production would require sustainable increase in 14,000
50 7%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Farm Equipment ($'000 per farm) - LHS
Farm Debt-Asset Ratio - RHS
Source: USDA
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Key Investment Themes in the Agricultural Sector
Agribusiness World Production & Use of Vegetable Oils (in million tonnes)
11 140
• Rising crop production and global food trade gives rise
to opportunities for companies in logistics business 10 130
120
• Companies with global crop sourcing / trading network 9
110
and strategic port and transportation assets set to 8
100
benefit
7 90
• Typical holdings: Bunge, Viterra 6 80
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Stock (LHS) Production (RHS) Use (RHS)
Food Processors Source: ADM, USDA
• Food processing companies would benefit from higher World Biodiesel Production (in million tonnes)
crop production and lower grain prices
12
• Rising affluence of developing countries drives demand 10
growth for products such as edible oil
8
• Government mandates for production of ethanol and 6
biodiesel lead to a structural increase in vegetable oil
4
demand
2
• Typical holdings: Wilmar, Archer Daniels
0
31
Key Investment Themes in the Agricultural Sector
Land & Farming Land Price in Brazil has been resilient over the financial crisis
9%
• Farm operating companies offer exposure to the 4400 8%
underlying commodity prices 4200 7%
4000 6%
• Farm developers focus on uplift in farm property prices 3800
5%
4%
by converting fallow land into productive farms 3600 3%
2%
• Still a young sector with a pipeline of new companies 3400
1%
starting up globally to capture opportunities in 3200 0%
different geography and crop varieties 3000 -1%
Jan- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar-
• Typical holdings: SLC Agricola, Brasilagro Feb Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09
Land Price Sequential % Change
Source: FNP, Credit Suisse
Forestry
• Upstream timberland companies offer exposure to both
land value and timber prices
• Some companies have downstream product exposure
and future potential in biomass energy
• Typical holdings: Plum Creek, Rayonier
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images set out in this document are used only for the purposes of this presentation.
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BlackRock’s Agriculture Funds
• Key differences between BGF World Agriculture Fund and BlackRock Agriculture Fund
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