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2011 Sovereign Credit Risk Outlook

Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., LTD

(January 27, 2011)

Solvency of the central government is the embodiment of a country's


overall economic strength; sovereign credit determines the trend of international
credit relations1. Whether international credit relations are stable or not has a
direct impact on the healthy development of the world economy. Since 2007, the
evolution of the global credit crisis proved that the sovereign credit risk is the
continuation of debt crisis in the financial and economic fields and that the
sovereign debt crisis is the inevitable response of national economic recession
and an advanced form of the credit crisis. Scientific forecast of the sovereign
credit risk in 2011 is conducive to human society to grasp the law of development
of international credit relations, and respond to the challenges of the sovereign
debt crisis.

Review of Sovereign Credit Risk in 2010


The sovereign debt crisis of the United States and Europe in 2010 was the
world's most significant sovereign credit risk event. To get rid of the sovereign
debt crisis, the United States continued to implement quantitative easing
monetary policy, which led to the violent shock of the international monetary and
credit systems, resulting in the complete out-break of a world credit warfare. The
drawing effect of strong economic growth in emerging creditor countries to the
global economy and their continued buying of the treasury bonds of big debtor
countries has prevented the sovereign debt crisis in developed debtor economies
from getting into collapse. Emerging creditor countries were able to effectively
stabilize the international credit relations and laid the credit foundation for the
recovery growth of the world economy.

_________________________________________________________________________

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International credit relations mean the credit and debt relations between different countries,
with the subject of the relations including not only natural persons, and legal persons, but
also government agencies.

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Looking back at 2010, the state of credit risk development in the world
shows the following five basic characteristics:

1. The basic layout of worldwide system of sovereign credit and debt is


mainly comprised of the debt system of the developed countries and the
credit system of the emerging countries

The debt system of developed countries is made up of developed debtor


countries. Developed debtor countries refer to the countries that has a relatively
high level of government debt and net debt in both the absolute volume and
relative volume (the ratio of total debt volume to gross domestic product),
including: the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Spain,
Austria, Belgium, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Iceland, Canada and the
Netherlands, the total size of all levels of government debt was about 39.5 trillion
USD. The credit system of emerging economies is comprised of emerging
creditor countries and regions. Emerging creditor countries and regions refer to
the emerging countries and regions that have become the official creditors of the
government debt of developed debtor countries due to the rapid increase in their
foreign exchange reserves since the 1980’s and 1990’s, which are mainly in Asia
and Latin America, including: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China Taiwan, China
Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia,
Argentina and other countries and regions, which constitute the system of
emerging economies credit system. These emerging countries and regions are
the major big export countries characterized by the export-oriented
manufacturing, energy and raw materials sectors. Embodied in the sovereign
credit and debt layout is the situation as follows: the decline in the endogenic
solvency of the developed debtor economies led to the increased demand for
government debt. Whereas the growth of the economic strength of the emerging
creditor economies made them the key external provider of government debt
revenues for the developed debtor countries. Therefore the debt system of the
developed countries is the main source of the global sovereign credit risk.

2. In the developed countries the financial crisis turned into a sovereign


debt crisis, as the solvency of key debtor countries declined sharply

This year risks in the financial sector still remained in developed debtor
countries, but the crisis has become calm; and the governments have
experienced 2-3 years of massive financial bailouts and economic stimulus,
which caused the sovereign credit risk to significantly increase from before the

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crisis. The developed debtor countries experienced gradual economic recovery in
2010, but the growth rate was very low, the nominal economic growth rate
averaged only 2.7%, while the debt growth rate was high, reaching 10.9%, this is
the third consecutive year that economic growth and debt growth are seriously
out of line, this has led the governments to rely more heavily on financing income
to maintain the financial operation, which will result in a further decline in
solvency. In mid-2010 as well as at the end of the year two sovereign debt crises,
happened in the eurozone, which resulted in Greece and Ireland being in need of
official assistance; besides , they set Portugal and Spain, two other highly-
indebted eurozone members exposed to even greater financing risks. The
European Union temporary aid mechanism established for the purpose of
assisting euro member states, although provided provisional relief from the crisis,
yet due to deterioration and no significant improvement in macroeconomic
fundamentals, the future sovereign credit risks of the eurozone countries will still
be very fragile.

3. The United States, the world's largest debtor country used the US Dollar
to distribute the output of debt, and waged a global credit warfare.
After the United States indicated in August 2010 that it would launch a new
round of quantitative easing monetary policy, capital accelerated the outflow from
the United States, and transferred to emerging market countries, causing a new
round of depreciation of the US dollar. Trends such as this had a strong impact
on emerging market countries, large-scale international capital flows and
international commodity prices rise led to currency appreciation, rising inflation
pressure and asset prices in emerging market countries. The World Bank
estimated that in 2010 the net flows of international capital into the stock market
and bond market of developing countries increased by 42% and 30%
respectively. The continuous devaluation caused by excess issuance of US
dollars eroded the legitimacy of the global monetary system that takes the US
dollar as the key reserve currency, bringing the US dollar’s credit-worthiness to a
vulnerable position. The excess issuance of the US currency and the emerging
market countries’ fighting in an effort to resist massive short-term international
capital inflows and imported inflation are the signs of a global credit war. Credit
war is the result of development of the debt crisis of an economic subject into the
sovereign debt crisis phase; and it is waged by a country that issues international
reserve currency; it aims at encroach on other countries’ interests through
continuous depreciating the actual value of the currency; and it arouses all the
countries in the world to take various credit resources as a financial weapon to

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safeguard the national interests.
4. The emerging creditor countries’ powerful capability to create wealth was
the catalyst to the stabilization of international credit relations
In 2010, emerging creditor countries continued to lead the growth of the
global economy, while exports continued to grow, the expansion of domestic
demand led imports to rise faster, while the main emerging creditor countries
such as China, Brazil and India, were the main source of growth in global trade
and foreign direct investment, which contributed to the recovery of the global
economy from the crisis as soon as possible, and getting it back to a steady
growth path; at the same time that the subject of institutional investors in
international sovereign bond markets – emerging creditor countries continued to
hold the treasury bonds of developed debtor countries in 2010 prevented the
sovereign debt crisis in developed debtor economies from getting into collapse,
thus stabilizing the international credit relations and laying the credit foundation
for the recovery growth of the world economy.
5. The credit risk of developed debtor countries damaged the healthy
development of the world economy.
The expansionary fiscal policy generally implemented in developed debtor
countries during the financial crisis has played a positive role in stabilizing the
financial system and preventing the economy from large-scale recession;
however, as the government debt ratio increased significantly, and economic
weakness became a normal state in the developed countries, sovereign credit
risk become a destructive force to the national and global economy in 2010.
First of all, the increasingly rising sovereign credit risk forced some developed
countries to shrink the scale of fiscal expenditure in the second half of 2010;
when it was difficult to improve the situation of private consumption and there
was a decline in public spending for economic recovery, therefore the drawing
capability of developed countries to global economic growth seemed less than
before the crisis. Secondly, the quantitative easing monetary policy adopted by
major developed debtor countries to sustain the economic recovery and ease
credit risk gradually resulted in the following adverse trends in 2010: a rise in
global inflation, rapid currency appreciation in emerging market countries and
some developed countries alike, and appearance of asset price bubbles; and
these tendencies were extremely detrimental to the healthy recovery and
development of the global economy .

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Outlook of Sovereign Credit Risk in 2011
In 2011, there is a large uncertainty in the sovereign credit risk of developed
countries, and the overall debt servicing capacity of developed debtor countries
is very vulnerable as there lack of fundamental measure for restoring economic
growth in the debt system of the developed countries. The United States is the
biggest sovereign debt crisis country, the declining trend of the national debt
repayment intention triggered by the collapse of the United States actual debt
solvency will not change, it will inevitably continue its quantitative easing
monetary policy, which would escalate the world credit war, and the consequent
global inflation and liquidity risk will exert noticeable impact to countries that
depend heavily on external factors and have economic vulnerability. Debt crisis
may occur to the developed economies that have the weakest solvency, such as
Portugal and Spain. The debt situation of expenditure over income in developed
debtor countries can be bound to drag down the world economy’s sustainable
development. The strong wealth creation capability of emerging creditor countries
and regions make creditor countries the important providers of financing income
for developed debtor countries. They are bound to be the mainstay in stabilizing
and reforming international credit relations.

1. The financing needs of the developed debtor countries will continue


to rise, and debt income will remain the basis for stabilizing the credit
relations of these countries

In 2011, the financing needs of developed debtor countries will continue an


upward trend. Dagong estimates that the total debt financing needs for
developed countries will be over 26.5% of GDP, slightly higher than 26.2% in
2010 (see Table 1). Most of the debt financing needs of major debtor countries
will exceed 20% of GDP of the year; the highest financing needs in Japan will be
57.8%. In 2011, the rise in the total financing needs of these developed debtor
countries has increased their reliance on debt income in order to maintain
financial sustainability and stability of the sovereign credit relationship.
The key reason for the increased debt financing needs for developed debtor
countries in 2011 is the increase in the debt maturity scale. After a peak in bonds
for three consecutive years, the size of the debt due for major developed debtor
countries will continue a higher trend after 2011. Major financing powers such as
Japan, the United States, Germany and Spain have a large size of debt due in
2011 which is greater than 2010. Due to the fact that matured debt accounts for
about two-thirds of the total debt financing needs of developed debtor countries,

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which is the main factor in the increase of debt financing needs.
The second reason for the increased debt financing needs for developed
debtor countries in 2011 is that they generally proceed with fiscal policy
adjustment in 2011, but different fiscal adjustment has resulted in the overall
decline to be small. For developed countries, the average size of the deficit in
2011 is expected to fall from 8.0% (ratio of deficit to GDP of the year) in 2010 to
6.9% (see Table 2). The degree of deficit reduction in developed countries reflect
the difference among different countries in the rate of increase in debt, financing
conditions, the macroeconomic outlook and the difficulty of the deficit
compression. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the large-scale rescue of
the banking sector leads to the significant deterioration in the economic situation,
big and extended economic contraction for countries with fast increase in
government debt such as Ireland, Spain, Britain, Iceland and other countries, and
there will be more substantial fiscal adjustment in 2011. In addition, countries like
Greece, Portugal, France and other countries have long been in a situation with
high debt and weak economic growth, facing the pressure of deteriorating market
financing conditions; they will also make significant fiscal adjustment. Except
Greece that focused its adjustment in 2010, adjustments in other countries in
2011 will be 2% and above. For big debtor countries whose financing conditions
are still fairly relaxed, the government is insufficiently motivated to cut deficit
sharply,and the adjustment will be small, taking into account the importance of
maintaining economic growth momentum and confidence in the ability of national
financing, as in the United States; or takes uniform minor adjustments to
practices, such as Japan and Germany. Meanwhile there are many countries that
due to their structural deficit throughout the years, resulted in a higher scale of
national government debt, although there was little increase in the temporary
deficit after the erupt of the financial crisis, yet it is very difficult to decrease the
structural deficit, so there is a slight decline in the deficit, such as in Italy, Belgium
and Austria.
In contrast, the debt requirement of developing countries is steadily
declining. Except Central and Eastern Europe and CIS countries, developing
countries gradually got rid of the negative impact of the financial crisis in 2010,
economic growth contributed to improved financial situations. Most developing
countries have made it clear that in 2011 there will be withdrawal of stimulatory
fiscal policy, only to different degrees. Especially in emerging market countries,
rapid capital inflows and inflation pressure will cause the expansionary fiscal
policy to be withdrawn in great extent in 2011. In developing countries the
average deficit is expected to decrease from 3.1% (ratio of deficit to GDP) in

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2010 to 2.4% (see Table 2). According to the forecast of International Monetary
Fund on 52 emerging economies, the needs of their government financing will
drop from 9.75% of GDP in 2010 to 9% in 2011.

Table 1 2010-2011 Debt Financing Needs of Governments in Developed Debtor Countries Unit:%
2010e 2011p

Debt Fiscal Financing Debt Fiscal Financing


Maturity Balance Needs Maturity Balance Needs
Austria 5.2 -4.6 9.6 2.6 -4.0 6.6

Belgium 21.9 -3.2 24.1 18.5 -2.4 20.9


Canada 16.3 -2.5 18.8 13.2 -2.1 15.3
France 14.7 -8.0 23.5 16.0 -6.0 22.0

Germany 9.4 -4.5 13.9 9.3 -3.7 13.0


Greece 12.9 -9.6 23.8 18.8 -7.4 25.5
Iceland 11.2 -10.9 22.1 21.2 -6.8 28.0
Ireland 6.5 -30.7 37.2 6.2 -14.7 20.9

Italy 20.3 -5.1 25.4 18.2 -4.3 22.5


Japan 43.4 -9.6 53.0 48.9 -9.2 57.8
Holland 14.1 -6.0 19.8 13 -5.3 18.3

Portugal 15.4 -7.3 22.7 16.2 -4.6 20.8


Spain 11.7 -9.3 21.0 14.0 -7.0 21
Britain 5.3 -10.1 15.4 7.5 -7.5 15.0

USA 15.2 -10.6 25.8 18.3 -9.3 27.6


Total
Financing 17.6 8.6 26.2 19.6 6.9 26.5
Needs

Source: IMF, Countries Ministry of Finance, Dagong


Note 1: all the data are the percentage of absolute value to GDP, the total financing needs are the
weighted average of the percentage value of all countries.. 2, e means the estimated value, p the
predicted value.

Table 2 The World’s Major Financial Data Unit:Trillion USD %


2011p 2010e 2009 2008 2007
Global Financial Revenue 21.5 20.2 19.5 20.6 19.3
Global Financial Expenditure 25.1 24.1 23.4 21.9 19.5

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Global Average Fiscal Deficit/GDP -5.7 -6.3 -6.6 -2.2 -4.2
Developed Countries Average Deficit/GDP -6.9 -8.0 -8.1 -3.6 -1.4
Developing Countries Average Deficit/GDP -2.4 -3.1 -3.2 0.8 2.0
Sources:IMF、OECD、African Union、Countries Ministry of Finance、Dagong
Notes:1, Estimated according to data from 150 countries. Includes: 30 countries in the Middle East,
44 countries in Africa, 32 countries in Latin America, 28 OECD countries, 6 countries in East and
South Asia, 4 countries in Central and Eastern Europe. 2, e means the estimated value, p the
predicted value. 3, the deficit rate is weighted average. 4, Developed and developing countries are
defined by the same method adopted by the International Monetary Fund.

2. In 2011 the developed debtor countries, constrained by the


macroeconomic environment of the debt system, lack of the basic
conditions to improve their solvency, their actual solvency will be in an
unstable state

In 2011 global government debt levels will continue the trend of significant
increase, but the growth rate will slow down compared with 2008-09. Dagong
expects the global total size of government debt to GDP ratio to increase from
76.3% in 2010 to 79.6% in 2011, and debt growth rate to slow from 10.9% to
8.5% (see Table 3). The developed debtor countries that account for more than
90% of the global government debt are the driving force for debt increase.
Government debt in develop countries is expected to increase from 94.9% of
GDP in 2010 to 100.5% in 2011 while the level of government debt in developing
countries begins to decline or remains relatively stable.
It is difficult for developed debtor countries to reduce the deficit level,
meanwhile, with the weak economic recovery the debt ratio will not be stable in
the near future. The debt rolling pressure inflicted by high debt erodes a country's
debt-enduring space, the actual solvency of the developed debtor countries will
be in an unstable state. The main factors influencing its deficit and debt reduction
process are:

First, weak economic growth. In developed countries ever since the 1980s,
financial liberalization policies have given rise to the continuous expansion of the
scale of borrowing; the ever-increasing debt scale in government, financial
institutions and the general public resulted in the over-expansion of the virtual
economy. The outbreak of the financial crisis indicates that economic laws are
playing their role in forcing developed countries to adjust the ratio between the
real economy the virtual economy, so that a concordance can be regained

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between the two; the whole process of deleveraging the economy is bound to
reduce the domestic demand in the private sector, resulting in the correction of
the abnormal economic expansion in the past. In this process, sluggish
consumption and investment will become the norm, while the economy will
experience a long period of low growth. In 2011, developed countries
government expenditures will show an overall declining trend, the increase in the
scale of investment by corporations is not sufficient to absorb the large number of
the unemployed, private consumption is difficult to significantly rebound and the
level of economic growth will be slightly lower than in 2010 at an expected rate of
2.2%. Sluggish economy will lead to decreased fiscal revenues, while high
unemployment rate will result in increased social security spending, therefore,
the deficit size will be increased even if no additional expansionary fiscal policy is
adopted by the government.

Second, financial aid is still needed. After 2010 there were less cases of
direct capital injection into the financial sector by governments of developed
countries . However, financial institutions still face the serious challenge of two
types of risks. One is that the increased bad debts caused by the weak economic
recovery challenges the bank's balance sheet; although the banking industry has
been generally strengthened, the capital adequacy ratio is still insufficient. The
US banking industry experienced a high rate of bankruptcy in 2010, while the
possibility of a double-dip recession in the US real estate industry cannot be
ruled out in 2011, and continued high unemployment makes it difficult for the
bank failure to effectively decrease in the future. In the United States Freddie
Mac, Fannie Mae and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and other
government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) also need the support of the
government's strong capital injection to survive. Another risk is that banks are
facing impending financing pressures. The International Monetary Fund forecasts
in the "Global Financial Stability Report" in October 2010 that in the next 24
months, the banking industry in developed countries needs to finance for 4 trillion
USD worth of matured debts. The banking sector in developed countries rely on
wholesale funding, especially European banks, wholesale financing (including
loans from the European Central Bank) account for more than 40% of the total
debt in the eurozone banking system; the structural weakness creates a greater
liquidity risk for banks in the eurozone than those in the U.S., Japan and the
United Kingdom. Ireland, Spain, Greece and other countries rely more instead of
less on the liquidity support measures of European Central Bank. The prominent
liquidity risk of the banking sector makes the government need to provide

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guarantees on bank debts. For the foresaid reasons, the government can not
withdraw from the financial relief measures; and the financial aid will still affect
the size of government deficits and debts.

Third, it is difficult to cut the structural deficits. During the process of


implementing neo-liberalistic reform in the developed countries, tax revenue
reduced significantly, but it is hard to effectively cut the expenditures on social
welfare due to the pressures from various interest groups, resulting in
longstanding structural deficits that became even worse and intractable after the
drop of economic growth. In view of the existing high rate of tax burden, different
countries currently tend to take one-off measures—cutting salaries of the public
sectors and expenditures on social services instead of public investment and
social security - to solve the issues regarding structural deficits, in an effort to
reduce the adverse impact of fiscal adjustment on the economy to the minimum
and reduce the resistance to the decision. Although many countries have initiated
reform on pension fund system, there is still a long way to go to implement the
overall reform of the social security system. According to IMF, it is estimated that
the pension fund system reform already performed in the developed countries
will make the predicted average expenditures on pension funds in those
countries increase 1% of GDP in the coming 2 decades, rather than 3% before
the reform. Nevertheless, the predicted growth in expenditures is still
considerable, which requires further reform. Almost no country has made
progress in medical system reform because it involves a wider range of interest
groups and more difficulties exist during the reform process. In 2010, pension
fund system reform was conducted in three countries, Greece, France and Spain
where massive protests broke out from the public, giving a sign of difficulties in
the reform.
Given the foregoing reasons, the total liabilities of the developed countries
will continue to rise in the coming 5 years, and consequently the solvency of
those developed debtor countries will not be stabilized. The vulnerability of credit
risks in the developed countries lies in the interest rate rise risk and financing risk,
wherein the former comes before rupture of financing. The pressure on rising of
interest rate in the major developed debtor countries is accumulating. An obvious
sign for this is since December 2010, the yield of treasury bonds in major debtor
countries such as the United States, Japan and Germany has shown an upward
trend, reflecting an increasing concern of the market on the solvency of central
government of those countries though the figure is still low, and the governments’

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pressure on debt repayment will increase rapidly in case of inflation, reverse
economic recovery or dumping of bonds.

Table 3 Global Governments’ Debt Data Unit: trillion US Dollar %

2011p 2010e 2009 2008 2007

Global Governments’ Total Debt 50.3 46.4 41.8 38.6 34.1

Global Government’s Total Debt /GDP 79.6 76.3 71.9 63.9 62.4

Global Governments’ Debt Growth Rate 8.5 10.9 12.9 7.7 6.9

Developed Countries’ Governments’ 100.5 94.9 89.0 81.2 75.7


Debt /GDP
Developed Countries’ Governments’ 8.8 10.9 13.8 7.0 7.2
Debt Growth Rate

Developing Countries’ Governments’ 33.4 33.6 32.0 28.4 25.8


Debt /GDP
Developing Countries’ Governments’ 6.1 9.9 10.9 7.0 6.4
Debt Growth Rate

Sources: IMF, OECD, African Union, Ministry of Finance of All Related Countries, Dagong

Note: i) the figures in table 3 are calculated according to data of 125 countries, including 30
countries in the Middle East, 28 countries in the OECD, 20 countries in Africa, 32 countries in Latin
America, 8 countries in East Asia and South Asia and 7 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and
Commonwealth of Independent States; ii) ‘e’ means estimated number and ‘p’ means predicated
number; and iii) debt burden rate is the weighted average value.

Table 4 2010-11 Economic Growth and Debt Data in Developed Debtor Countries Unit: %

2010e 2011p

Economic Debt/GDP Net Economic Debt/GDP Net


Growth Rate Debt/GDP Growth Rate Debt/GDP

Austria 1.5 74.9 41.7 1.4 78.4 43.2

Belgium 1.6 102.5 82.4 1.4 104.3 84.2

Canada 3.1 84.4 31.4 2.6 85.5 33.7

France 1.7 92.4 57.1 1.6 97.1 61.8

Germany 3.4 78.9 50.5 2.6 80.7 50.3

Greece -4.0 129.6 97.8 -2.8 -138.1 106.5

Iceland -3.1 124.9 45.2 2.5 116.9 45.7

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Ireland -0.2 96.9 70.9 1.5 105.7 75.3

Italy 1.0 131.3 103.3 1.0 132.7 104.7

Japan 2.8 198.4 114.0 1.5 204.2 120.4

Netherlands 1.8 74.6 34.7 1.7 77.6 37.7


Portugal 1.8 83.3 59.0 -1.5 89.6 63.8

Spain -0.3 72.2 43.4 0.7 78.2 49.3

England 1.7 81.3 51.3 2.0 88.6 57.6

America 2.6 94.3 68.8 2.3 99.0 70.9

Sources: OECD, Dagong

Note: i) the economic growth rate refers to the actual number, and the debt data refers to t he debt
of governments in different levels; and ii) ‘e’ means estimated number and ‘p’ means predicated
number.

3. As the inherent factors affecting the sovereign debt crisis in the


eurozone countries have not been fundamentally changed, sovereign debt
crisis in the eurozone countries will be further intensified in 2011, with
possible downgrade of sovereign credit ratings on Portugal and Spain
Some debt-ridden countries in the eurozone still have fragile credit risks in
2011, including Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium. The debt crisis in the
eurozone arisen from the crisis in Ireland might exacerbate again in 2011,
although it was temporarily pacified after November,2010; because first of all,
those countries’ macro economic situation has not significantly improved, and the
economy may still be in recession or just realize slight growth in 2011, leading to
slow fiscal revenue growth and difficulty in cutting deficits. Second, the financing
requirements of the government in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Belgium
will exceed 20% of GDP in the respective country, and their banking industries,
at the same time, have considerable financing requirements. Because the banks
hold a large amount of government debts, a negative feedback loop is formed
between banks and government. Third, the excessively large size of external
debts of those countries will increase the possibility of speculative dumping.
Fourth, the dispute concerning the long-term solution to risks in treasury bonds in
the eurozone countries makes investors worry about highly risky countries losing
their credit guarantee. In case of bad macro economic performance in those
countries, investors continue to buy the treasury bonds of countries such as
Portugal based on their trust in Germany and France, two powerful countries in
the eurozone. However, these two countries recently proposed to implement
European Stability Mechanism (ESM), indicating that creditors might bear part of

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the losses after 2013. This reflects the dilemma for the powerful countries in the
eurozone while facing the conflict of domestic interest and interest in the
eurozone in response to the debt crisis, which will not allow them to help the
countries under crisis with their best efforts. In addition, the European Central
Bank is prudential to conduct Southeast European Project (SEP), showing that
the European Central Bank is not willing to purchase a large number of the
treasury bonds of the brink counties in the eurozone as the Fed did.
Dagong believes the key risk of the debt-ridden eurozone countries is rising of
interest rate for financing in 2011, but there is still no default risk. The marginal
rate of interest for financing in those countries may rise substantially in 2011, but
given the historical low interest rate, the average interest rate for the government
to repay the debt is still low, reflecting relatively small proportion of interest
expenditure of the fiscal expenditure. In addition, with average long maturity of
the government debt, those governments don’t have to repay the due debt in a
concentrated period of time. As for those European countries with large debt, the
international capital market only requires interest rate to be commensurate with
its risk level, and they can still receive some financing support. However, this
doesn’t mean those countries do not need the bailout provided by EU and IMF.
On the contrary, more countries, such as Portugal and Spain, will have to ask for
bailout in 2011 for the reasons of preventing debt crisis from spreading and
endangering more countries. Accordingly, Dagong is considering the necessity of
adjusting sovereign credit rating of both local and foreign currency on the
foregoing countries.
According to the current financial bailout package set by EU, the temporary
bailout mechanism, totaling 750 billion euro including EFSF, could help some
small countries under deepened crisis by meeting their financing requirements,
such as Portugal, but can not withstand the potential risk events of countries
systemically influential in the eurozone, for example, exacerbated fiscal status in
Spain. The leading forces, including EU, European Central Bank and core
member countries, need to make even greater effort in collaboration of series of
intervention policies in 2011, to guarantee the fiscal sustainability in the eurozone
countries, avoid spread of debt crisis and seek for effective solution under a more
constructive policy framework, and consequently to maintain the healthy
economic development in the eurozone and the vitality of euro.
4. The United States, as the biggest country involved in sovereign debt
crisis around the world, will continue its quantitative easing policy when

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the country is in danger, and the world credit war will be escalated due to
the overflow of US dollars
The second round quantitative easing policy ongoing in the United States can
not change its weak domestic demand in the short term. In fact, it can only lower
the interest rate of US Treasuries so as to maintain stable interest rate in the
capital market in the long term, playing the indirect role of clearing some
obstacles for a stable recovery. However, the plan of purchasing 600 billion US
dollar Treasury bonds can not realize its predicted goal; and therefore, the United
States will hardly change its predetermined monetary policy in 2011. The
continuous implementation of such unconventional monetary policy in the United
States will lead to the escalation of world credit war and inflict greater losses for
related parties in the world credit system.
First, the trend of long-term depreciation of US dollar will result in haircut of
international creditors’ debts dominated in US dollar. As the interest rate of US
government debt is lowered due to the quantitative easing policy adopted by the
United States, creditors can not obtain the investment return commensurate with
the risk status of US Treasuries. At the same time, the depreciation will also
cause continuous exchange losses for the international creditors. Since June
2010, the US dollar has significantly depreciated compared with the currencies in
emerging market countries and some developed countries, and the depreciation
is 3.0% against RMB, 12% against Brazilian Real, 14% against South African
Rand, 19.5% against Australian dollar and 11.4% against Korean won. The trend
will continue in 2011, and international creditors will lose all their profits of the US
dollars in exchange for the export income under the gradual depreciation of the
currency. The behavior that the United States ignores international creditors’
legitimate interests indicates a dramatic decline of the country’s willingness to
repay the debt.
Second, rapid inflow of capital will cause risks regarding inflation and asset
bubbles in the emerging market countries, which is unfavorable for those
countries to maintain their debt repayment credit. As a result, emerging market
countries, including some developed countries and regions with good economic
recovery, will have to withstand the economic and financial impact arisen from
the inflow of capital in 2011. If the capital inflow exceeded the capacity that the
domestic economic and financial development can absorb, some of the capital
will flow over in the real estate market, capital market such as stocks and bonds
and some commodity market to raise the asset price in the domestic market and
eventually accelerate the inflation. Most of the countries have transferred to

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neutral monetary policies and will speed up the contraction of their monetary
policies; however, due to the viscosity of the currency and imbalance of capital
inflow in different industry, and yet the policies and measures will exert general
restrictive effect on capital in the overall domestic market, the healthy
development of the domestic economy will inevitably be damaged. Some Asian
countries, for the purpose of eliminating the damage to the export in case of rapid
currency appreciation, take some intervention measures, which bring increase of
foreign reserves at a faster speed, and the consequent hedge cost is not
favorable for the inflation control. While the capital retrieves quickly, the fall of
asset prices will impose adverse impact on the robustness of the banks,
domestic consumption and stability of the exchange rate.
Third, the issuance of US dollar encourages numerous speculative capitals
into the global commodity market, leading to an increasing pressure on global
inflation. The quantitative easing policy conducted by the Fed in a continuous
way failed to promote the expansion of domestic credit scale; rather, the liquidity
accumulated inside the financial system, in addition to flowing to foreign markets,
has been used for financial speculative investment, causing surge of prices of
global commodities including energy, raw materials, and foods; and almost all
countries, as a result, have suffered losses arisen from the imported inflation to
different extent. In EU and the eurozone countries where see the slowest
recovery, the annual inflation rate has increased to 2.6% and 2.2% respectively
by December 2010, the figure for countries with serious inflation, such as
Romania, Greece and Hungary, has reached 7.9%, 5.2% and 4.6% respectively.
The anti-inflation measures make the weak economic recovery even worse.
In general, the capital inflow and inflation pressure that emerging market
countries are experiencing will, on one side, directly affect the governments’
capacity for repaying local currency debt from the perspective of its influence on
the value of local currency, and on the other side, indirectly and more seriously
threaten the governments’ credit based on its adverse influence on healthy
development of macro economy and financial security.
Currency system is the carrier of credit system, and therefore, the value of the
currency determines the quality of credit system. International currency is the
carrier of international credit system, and the instability of the currency value and
the depreciation trend arisen from the over issuance make the function of the US
dollar as the value scale distorted, which make other countries in the world pay
an undeserved cost for their subsistence and development. The strike of short-
term capital dominated in US dollar to the emerging economics has made the

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excess US dollar capital become the destructive factor to the healthy economic
development in different countries. The international credit system established on
the basis of US dollar as the intermediary has been twisted in a way that the
impartiality and reasonable aspect of the current international credit relations
gradually vanish. Different countries, in order to avoid unpredictable losses on
their own interests, will have to seek for adjustment of international credit
relations, and the global credit war, no doubt, will become the turning point of
reforming international credit relations in 2011.
5. The credit risks of the developed debtor countries become the major
destructive force for the world economic development
The value production in the countries in the global debt system cannot catch
up with the speed of debt growth, not only lacking of the material basis to reduce
the debt, but also consuming the surplus of the creditor countries. Therefore, it is
difficult for the world economy to recover from the crisis as soon as possible. In a
long period after 2011, the credit risks of the developed debtor countries will
constitute the major obstacle to the healthy development of world economy.
From the perspective of the domestic economy in the developed debtor
countries, they will have to adopt fiscal austerity policy under the circumstance of
poor fiscal sustainability since 2011, but the negative growth of public
expenditure thereof will slow down the economic recovery of the developed
countries. Moreover, the indebtedness of the developed debtor countries will
constitute the major obstacle to the development of their domestic economy in a
relatively long period in the future. The debt remaining high for a long time will
exacerbate the imbalance of the income allocation that capital owners will earn
more interest income, the part of national income obligated to be allocated to
ordinary citizens further reduces, and consequently weakening the consumption
ability of the public. In order to maintain the sustainability of debt and promote
economic growth, some super low interest rate policy is taken, which accelerate
the outflow of capital and is unable to effectively increase the investment.
Longstanding low interest rate and over issuance of currency will lead to the
undesirable consequence that serious inflation may come before the full
economic recovery. The GDP of the developed debtor countries accounts for
59% of global GDP, and the economic downturn in those countries ruins the
ability of developing countries to gain national income from export.
The extremely loose monetary policy taken in the major developed debtor
countries, such as the United States, the eurozone, Japan and Britain, can not be

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substantially changed in 2011, and the global excess liquidity caused thereof is a
potential disaster for the developing countries with weak strength and economic
vulnerability. The financial crisis occurred in Latin America and Southeast Asia in
1990s is tightly connected to the rapid inflow and outflow of short-term capital
from the developed countries, the great damage suffered by countries in Central
and Eastern Europe amid this financial crisis is also attributable to the same
reason. One can reasonably judge that the new round of strike from hot money
and global inflation will, as the less serious consequence, lead to stock turmoil,
fall of housing price and economic slowdown in the emerging market countries
and some developed countries, or as the more serious consequence, cause
sharp depreciation of exchange rate, economic recession or even political crisis,
especially in some countries in Latin America Central and Eastern Europe and
Africa under fragile political and economic status. In addition, although inflation is
not a problem for those developed countries who perform loose monetary policy,
the global inflation risk is clear as driven by their monetary policies, and
economic performance of most of the countries will be eroded by inflation in
different degree in 2011.
6. The emerging creditor nations will maintain high economic growth, they
are the backbone to promote the healthy development of international
credit relations amid the unstable global credit system
Emerging creditor countries resumed high economic growth after the financial
crisis, playing an important role in driving the world economy. The emerging
creditor countries are less seriously impacted by the global financial crisis on the
ground that the governments can easily take measures to boost domestic
demands due to relatively high saving rate so as to maintain high economic
growth, which also make them the destination counties of the developed
countries with fastest export growth. Those emerging creditor counties, though,
face pressures on controlling inflation and rising of asset prices in 2011 and are
predicted to realize a slower economic growth than that in 2010; they are still the
countries with the fastest economic growth around the world.
In order to stabilize the international credit relations, it is crucial for the
emerging creditor countries to keep or even increase holding the treasury bonds
of the developed debtor countries. The scale of the official foreign exchange
reserves of emerging creditor countries still increased rapidly in 2010. It is
predicted that in 2011, though the surplus of current account will continue to
decrease, the scale of foreign exchange reserves will be enlarged at a relatively
rapid speed because of the large-scale inflow of the capital. The emerging

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creditor countries become the major buyers of the treasury bonds and
government debts of the developed debtor countries by spending most of foreign
exchange reserves on those bonds, which is of great significance to maintaining
the developed debtor countries’ financing capability and helping them stabilize
their domestic finance and stimulate their economic recovery.
The emerging creditor countries will become the key to facilitate the healthy
development of international credit relations. The situation that developed debtor
countries rely on debt financing income for the operation of the countries will
remain unchanged for a long time in the future; and they, who have vested
interest in the current international credit relations, will not be motivated to
promote its healthy development. However, the emerging creditor countries who
are challenged by three negative factors, including low investment return, gradual
depreciation of US dollar and rapid appreciation of their local currencies, will be
motivated to drive the international credit relations to develop toward a fairer and
more reasonable direction. The emerging creditor countries will make a clearer
and more active effort in pursuing steady reform on international credit system in
2011. First, the continuous expansion of local currency capital markets in the
emerging countries, especially the acceleration of globalization of RMB capital
market, has shown that the emerging market countries are trying to get rid of the
position of immature creditors and transfer to mature ones for bonds
denominated in the local currency. Second, the emerging market countries will
increase their foreign direct investment (FDI). According to the United Nations
Conference on Trade and Development, it is estimated that the global FDI flows
will recover with double-digit growth in 2011-12, among which the emerging
market countries will become the engine for the growth of FDI, especially those in
Asia.

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