Sagan - Causes Nuclear; Betts - The New Threat of Mass
Destruction
Friday, November 23, 2007
3:17 PM
Sagan - Causes Nuclear
1997
214, "Security Model" : One theory of why
states develop nuclear power is that they face
security threats that can't be met any other way.
4 quadrants of Nuclear system: low to high
capability; low to high nuclear weapons
acquisition and maintenance efforts. All
countries fall into one of there quadrants.
217, states have responded to threats of other
countries. Eg China developed the bomb
because US threatened to use the bomb at the
end of the Korean War. Neorealist Prolif.
Theory: State can balance against Nuclear rival
in one of two ways, allying with another
nuclear power. Second, developing your own
nuclealr powers.
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty: states won't
develop Nuclear weapons: states might not
develop if they have good reason of believing
that their neighbors will not either.
218, other sources of influences of proliferation
is also domestic actors that
encourage/discourage it. They can by military
or politicians which through there control can
influence decision making. In the case of India,
uncertainty of the upper political eschlons led
to being pushed by the bomb lobby to allow
nuclear tech. then it turned to use nuclear
weapons tech.
Hard to argue for cuts in arms, because the
argument is that the primary armscountries
have a large supply of arms and it is necessary
for proliferating countries to have, so as to
deter.
221, Possessing Nuclear arms has it's symbolic
value. The NPT set up standards that were set
up mainly by the larger powers. Diff states
respond diff. to NPT. France built up Nuclear
weapons as a way to get back to its former
greatness. The Ukraine disarmed to dissociate
from the Rogue States and benefit from the
perks from the larger countries. The NPT
standards are still influential.
223, Again how can the US advocate that states
not build chemical/bio weapons to deter, when
it choose to hold onto nuclear weapons for that
very purpose.
Govt 135 Page 1
Betts - The New Threat of Mass Destruction
1998
What is a real concern these days to the
Pentagon is protecting troops abroad from
WMD's . But what about Americans, the
greatest threat now is Bio weapons, then
Nuclear, then Chemical weapons.
The fact is now that when once WMD's were
the new technology, it is now a tech. of the
past. One that now even terrorists can easily
gain access to. Real danger is terrorists
targeting American cities.
The US in accord with the Chemical Weapons
Convention of 1993 got rid of its chemical
weapons, it had gotten rid of Bio weap's
during the Nixon era. The policy that remains
for WMD's is a no first-use policy. But the
abitilty to use them in reponse to an attack.
232, Anthrax or other Bio weapons will be the
weapon of choice for non-state actors. They
are easier to get and far more killing effective
than Nuclear and Chem weapons.
234, these days deterence requires that we
know who the agressor is and how they are to
be deterred. In cases of US involvement in
third world issues this deterrence/agressor
understanding becomes merky and makes the
US more vulnerable.
236, In the case of Ballistic Missile defense.
We have no certainty that it will work yet we
spend fortunes on it. What we do know is that
basic civilian defense through evacuation,
vaccination, emergency treatments in the
event of an attack have not even been thought
of, and tiny amounts of money spent on it.
237, Civil defense meant to minimize
damage, but to limit it. The US must not
ignore basic steps to protect civilian safety.
That will leave people wonderning why didn't
the Govt do anything.
241, the US ought to tread carefully especially
in the Middle east. The US has tried for so
long to play Globocop, and the enemies of the
US may challenge the US protected status
quo.