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Impacts of Climate Change

on Biodiversity:

A scoping study focusing on broad


w oody vegetation groups w ithin
biodiversity corridors in the South East
Queensland catchm ent area.
Greg Laves, Susie Chapman, Peter Waterman, Amanda Tunbridge,
Theresa Ashford and Graham Ashford

January 2010

A joint project by
IMPORTANT NOTICE - PLEASE READ

While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are
factually correct, neither the University of the Sunshine Coast nor SEQ Catchments, accepts
responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for
any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or
reliance on, the contents of this publication.

Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments


Faculty of Science, Health and Education
University of the Sunshine Coast

Contact
Greg Laves
Telephone 07 5459 4679
glaves@usc.edu.au

Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments Team


Associate Professor Peter Waterman, Greg Laves, Graham Ashford, Theresa Ashford and
Amanda Tunbridge

January 2010

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Acknowledgements

This initial research has been undertaken by South East Queensland Catchments (SEQC) in
collaboration with the University of the Sunshine Coast as part of the South East Queensland
Regional Climate Change Adaptation Demonstration Project – Stage 2. The contribution,
support and assistance in the preparation of this scoping study by the following are
gratefully acknowledged.

• Susie Chapman, Shannon Mooney and Mik Petter, from SEQ Catchments.
• Greg Laves, Amanda Tunbridge, Teresa Ashford, Graham Ashford and Peter
Waterman from Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments, Faculty of Science, Health
and Education (FoSHE) at USC.

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Executive Summary

The key purpose of this Scoping R eport is to broadly identify the potential impacts of
climate change on biodiversity within the region, most specifically, on broad woody
vegetation groups. This report should help to inform subsequent, more specific and
longitudinal studies on vegetation and climate change to assist SEQC with future investment
strategies and the development of risk assessments and climate change adaptation policies.

A ‘desktop study’ approach has been followed to scope the potential implications of climate
change and climate variability as they apply to bioregional corridors in SEQ This has
encompassed literature reviews, consultations with researchers in the field of biodiversity
and the development of climate change scenarios for the region. To this end, SimCLIM
climate modelling software has been applied to the region to examine rainfall and
temperature projections for the years 2050 and 2100. This has enabled the documentation
of the biodiversity implications of changing temperature and precipitation across SEQ.
Additionally, the scenarios of changing rainfall and temperature provide a spatial framework
for showing how changing climatic conditions may be interpreted with respect to biodiversity
conservation corridors in SEQ.

The key findings of this project are as follows.


• Climate change will have significant negative impacts on biodiversity corridors in the
SEQ.
• Impacts will occur through both through direct and indirect vectors.
• Direct impacts will be due to incompatibility of new climes and vegetation needs.
• Indirect impacts will be through fire and disease and pathogen exposure due to
climate stresses.

On the basis of the conclusions drawn it is recommended that a collaborative proactive SEQ
Strategic Biodiversity Corridor Clim ate Change Adaptation Action Plan is developed
and implemented.

A number of critical issues have been raised that need to be resolved as SEQC looks towards
protecting woody vegetation areas in light of climate change stresses which include:

• the documentation of the biodiversity implications of changing temperature and


precipitation across SEQ; and
• assessing how projected changes in climatic conditions are translated with respect to
biodiversity conservation corridors.

Thus, on the basis of the findings of this study, it is necessary to determine appropriate
mitigation measures and site specific adaptation strategies and to ensure the longevity of
woody vegetation ecosystems in the SEQ region. This needs to be done spatially as the
biodiversity corridors provide an essential framework into which on ground activities can be
focused. Steps in this direction will need to be supported by:

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• detailed climate scenario mapping;
• extreme event analysis;
• monitoring and management of threatening processes, especially weeds and
bushfires; and
• rigorous data on the tolerance and resilience of the plant species that constitute the
‘woody vegetation group (closed and open forest and woodland).

This mapping, together with accompanying analysis and documentation is an essential start
point for making better informed decisions on investment in biodiversity conservation
corridors for the SEQ and adjoining regions.

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Table of Contents

1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 10


1.1 Background and Purpose ......................................................................................... 10
1.2 Approach ............................................................................................................... 10
1.3 Biodiversity Focus and Definitions ........................................................................... 12
1.4 Structure of Report ................................................................................................. 13
1.5 Mapping Biodiversity values in SEQ Biodiversity Corridors ........................................ 13
2.0 South East Queensland: A Regional Overview ............................................................... 14
2.1 Geographic Perspective ........................................................................................... 14
2.2 SEQ Biodiversity Values, Conditions and Threats ...................................................... 18
2.3 Pressures on Biodiversity......................................................................................... 25
3.0 Global Warming and Climate Change: An Overview ...................................................... 28
3.1 Evidence of the certainty of global climate change...................................................... 28
3.2 Climate Change: Global and Australian Trends .......................................................... 28
3.3 Global Climate Models and Patterns of Change .......................................................... 30
4.0 Climate Change and Biodiversity ................................................................................. 32
4.1 Climate Change and Biodiversity: Setting the Scene ................................................... 32
4.2 Climate projections for SEQ .................................................................................... 33
4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity ................................................................... 44
4.4 Biodiversity Responses to Climate Change ................................................................ 50
4.5 Managing Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity .................................................... 55
5.0 Discussion and the Way Forward.................................................................................. 57
5.1. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity ................................................ 57
5.2 Strategic Adaptation Activities ................................................................................. 58
5.3 Mapping the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity ............................... 59
5.4 Steps Forward ........................................................................................................ 62
References ...................................................................................................................... 64
Appendices ..................................................................................................................... 68
A: Climate Scenarios for South East Queensland Catchments Region................................. 68
B: Site Specific Climate Projections for the South East Queensland Region ........................ 72
B1: Summary of climate changes for selected SEQ sites .............................................. 73
B2: Nanango .......................................................................................................... 74
B3: Tewantin ......................................................................................................... 78
B4: Toowoomba ..................................................................................................... 79
B5: Ipswich............................................................................................................ 82
B6: Brisbane .......................................................................................................... 83
B7: Gold Coast ....................................................................................................... 86
C: Maps and Definitions ............................................................................................... 88
D: Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Plant and Animal Species in SEQ ............................. 90

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Table of Maps

Map 1.1: The South East Queensland Region ____________________________________________ 9


Map 1.2: Biodiversity Corridors in SEQ _______________________________________________ 11
Map 2.1: Distribution of major vegetation cover types in SEQ _____________________________ 15
Map 2.2: Climate classifications for Australia __________________________________________ 17
Map 2.3: Regional rainfall zones of Australia___________________________________________ 17
Map 2.4: Areas with high species richness within biodiversity corridors _____________________ 19
Map 2.5: Core habitat for priority taxa within biodiversity corridors ________________________ 20
Map 2.6: Centres of endemism within biodiversity corridors ______________________________ 21
Map 2.7: Refugia in biodiversity corridors _____________________________________________ 23
Map 2.8: Areas with high biodiversity values within biodiversity corridors ___________________ 24
Map 2.9: Elevation of biodiversity corridors ___________________________________________ 27
Map 4.1: Baseline mean annual temperature and precipitation for SEQ ______________________ 33
Map 4.2: Mean Annual Temperature projections - SEQ 2050 and 2100 ______________________ 35
Map 4.3: Mean annual precipitation projections - SEQ 2050 and 2100 _______________________ 37
Map 4.4: Maximum Average Summer Temperature for SEQ – Dec, Jan, Feb__________________ 39
Map 4.5: Australian rainfall tends 1950 – 2007 _________________________________________ 40
Map 4.6: Australian temperature trends 1950 – 2007 _____________________________________ 40
Map 4.7: Habitat for EVR taxa within biodiversity corridors ______________________________ 45
Map 4.8: Mean Annual Rainfall over 1200mm in the Border Ranges (1961 – 1990) ____________ 49
Map 4.9: Projected rainfall over 1200mm in the Border Ranges in 2100 ______________________ 49
Map 4.10: Distribution of taxa at the limits of their geographical ranges in corridors ____________ 52
Map 5.1: Potential impact of reduction in rainfall on distribution of Eucalypts in SEQ __________ 61
Map A1: Mean Temperatures by Season for SEQ – Baseline and 2050 _______________________ 69
Map A2 Maximum Average Summer Temperature for SEQ – Dec, Jan, Feb __________________ 70

Table of Figures

Figure 2.1 Land Use in South East Queensland _________________________________________ 16


Figure 3.1: Deleterious climate impacts by temperature rise _______________________________ 29
Figure 3.2: IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios ___________________________________________ 31
Figure 3.3: GHG emissions 1990 to 2007 against SRES emission scenarios ___________________ 31
Figure 4.1: Impacts and trends of different drivers on major global biomes ___________________ 32
Figure 4.2: Changes in Mean Annual Temperature for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100 __________ 34
Figure 4.3: Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100 __________ 36
Figure 4.4: Changes in extreme events due to shifts in mean and variance ____________________ 38
Figure 4.5: Drought indicator projections for Queensland _________________________________ 41
Figure 4.6: Cyclonic activity in Australia 1969 - 2005 ____________________________________ 43
Figure 4.7: Climate change stressor, impact mechanisms and impacts________________________ 47

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Figure B1: Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100 __________ 73
Figure B2: Changes in Mean Annual Temperature for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100 __________ 73
Figure B3: Nanango Climate Data Graphs _____________________________________________ 75
Figure B4: Somerset Dam Climate Data Graphs ________________________________________ 77
Figure B5: Tewantin Climate Data Graphs _____________________________________________ 79
Figure B6: Toowoomba Climate Data Graphs __________________________________________ 81
Figure B7: Ipswich Climate Data Graphs ______________________________________________ 83
Figure B8: Brisbane Climate Data Graphs _____________________________________________ 85
Figure B9: Gold Coast Climate Data Graphs ___________________________________________ 87

Table of Tables

Table 4.1: Projections for days over 35 °C in SEQ (A1FI scenario).................................................... 40


Table 4.2: Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) projections Brisbane and Amberley............................... 42
Table A1 Seasonal Average Temperature Change from Baseline in SEQ........................................... 69
Table B1: Climate Scenario Case Study Sites...................................................................................... 72
Table B2: Nanango Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C ........................................................... 74
Table B3: Nanango Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C ............................................................ 74
Table B4: Nanango Annual Rainfall Change (mm) ............................................................................. 74
Table B5: Somerset Dam Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C .................................. 76
Table B6: Somerset Dam Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C................................... 76
Table B7: Somerset Dam Projected Annual Precipitation Change mm ............................................... 76
Table B8: Tewantin Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change C° .......................................... 78
Table B9: Tewantin Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change C° ........................................... 78
Table B10: Tewantin Projected Annual Precipitation Change mm ..................................................... 78
Table B11: Toowoomba Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C ................................... 80
Table B12: Toowoomba Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C .................................... 80
Table B13 Toowoomba Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm .................................................... 80
Table B14: Ipswich Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C ........................................... 82
Table B15: Ipswich Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C............................................ 82
Table B16: Ipswich Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm........................................................... 82
Table B17: Brisbane Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C ......................................... 84
Table B18: Brisbane Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C .......................................... 84
Table B19: Brisbane Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm ......................................................... 84
Table B20: Gold Coast Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C ..................................... 86
Table B21: Gold Coast Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C ...................................... 86
Table B22: Gold Coast Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm ..................................................... 86
Table D.1: Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Plant Species in SEQ ................................................... 90
Table D.2: Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Animal (Terrestrial) Species in SEQ ........................... 91

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Map 1.1: The South East Queensland Region

Source: Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program

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1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background and Purpose


South East Queensland (SEQ) as shown in Map 1.1 has been identified by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as one of six areas within Australia likely
to experience high level negative impacts as a result of increasing climate variability due to
global warming (IPCC 2007). The implications for biodiversity within the region from
changing rainfall patterns and increased temperatures are of particular concern.

The key purpose of this scoping study is to broadly identify the potential impacts of climate
change on biodiversity within the region, most specifically, on broad woody vegetation
groups. The study seeks to achieve the following objectives.

• Provide a regional context for future assessments of the potential impacts of climate
change on woody vegetation assemblages within the biodiversity corridors of SEQ.
• Outline the implications of global warming and climate change for the SEQ region.
• Review the issues and risks for biodiversity corridors in SEQ in the context of
changing climatic conditions.
• Indicate a proactive way forward to address the vulnerability of woody vegetation to
climatic variability and change.

As the product of the study, this Scoping Report should help to inform subsequent, more
specific and longitudinal studies on vegetation and climate change to assist SEQC with
future investment strategies and the development of risk assessments and climate change
adaptation policies. The catchments that are encompassed by this study are delineated in
Map 1.1.

1.2 Approach
A ‘desktop study’ approach has been followed to scope the potential implications of climate
change and climate variability as they apply to bioregional corridors in SEQ (Map 1.2). This
has encompassed literature reviews, consultations with researchers in the field of
biodiversity and the development of climate change scenarios for the region. To this end,
SimCLIM climate modelling software has been applied to the region to examine rainfall and
temperature projections for the years 2050 and 2100. This has enabled the documentation
of the biodiversity implications of changing temperature and precipitation across SEQ.
Additionally, the scenarios of changing rainfall and temperature provide a spatial framework
for showing how changing climatic conditions may be interpreted with respect to biodiversity
conservation corridors in SEQ.

This scoping study builds on the results of a range of assessment and research activities on
the topic of climate change and biodiversity, particularly the work of Brisbane City Council
(Low 2007). From available vegetation and ecosystem information, it is assumed that these
corridors would contain a suite of woody plant species whose distributions could change
across the landscape with hotter and drier conditions. As well, an assessment has been
made of mapping requirements to better disseminate information of the potential impacts of
climate change on biodiversity.

The product of the project is viewed as having the potential to contribute to future
investment strategies by SEQ Catchments with respect to the maintenance and
establishment and maintenance of biodiversity corridors to support the conservation of
woody vegetation.

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Map 1.2: Biodiversity Corridors in SEQ

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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1.3 Biodiversity Focus and Definitions

The biodiversity focus of this scoping report is on woody vegetation in the context of
biodiversity corridors. Woody vegetation is operationally defined below in terms of its
structural components to provide a start point for examining the implications of climate
change and for mapping the biodiversity corridors in a spatial framework.

The broad location of biodiversity corridors in SEQ are shown in Map 1.2. It is emphasised
that these corridors are geographic constructs based on parcels of land that contain a wide
range of vegetation habitats and plant species across different latitudinal and altitudinal
ranges. The corridors do not represent an aggregation of land tenures. Rather, the parcels
are on publicly and privately owned land. However, two broad classifications of corridors are
delineated: State and regional.

W oody Vegetation - The Department of Natural Resources and Water (DNRW 2008)
defines woody vegetation to include stands of native vegetation, disturbed areas of native
vegetation, regrowth, plantations of native and exotic species, woody weeds and urban
woody vegetation. There are many definitions of what constitutes a forest or ‘woody
vegetation’.

The definition of ‘forest’ used in this report is from the National Carbon Accounting System
(NCAS) which includes areas greater than 0.2 hectares with trees having a potential height
of at least 2m and a minimum crown cover of 20% (DoCC 2008).
Forests can be further broken into:
1. closed forests;
2. open forests; and
3. woodlands.
The definitions paraphrased below are provided by Specht and Specht (1999) for native
forests and woodlands in SEQ:

Closed Forests - Closed forests possess dense canopies in the upper stratum (70-100%
foliage projective cover), with upper stratum varying in height from 5-40m, and considerable
complexity in the lower stratum. Fire rarely penetrates these lush, well watered
communities. Flora assemblages in closed forests can be categorized into: tropical;
subtropical; and cool temperate flora. Apart from pioneer species, migration of closed forest
tree species into tree-fall gaps is minimal, as in general, most regeneration occurs from
already established tree seedlings and root suckers. Seed dispersal of fleshly fruits by birds
and bats, ensures recolonisation of adjacent cleared land.

Closed forests show a gradual reduction in species richness per hectare as the flora moving
southwards changes, from tropical to subtropical to warm temperate taxa. Moving south,
leaf sizes in the overstorey decrease, araucarian emergents and lianes decrease, and
vascular epiphytes and plank buttresses are less common or rare.

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Open Forests - Open Forests can be sub-classified into tall open forests, open forests
(grassy, healthy and layered), and low open forests. SEQ contains tall open forests – an
open forest with trees more than 30 metres tall, a dense understorey of small trees, large
shrubs, tree ferns etc. Tall open forests are comprised of exceptionally tall Eucalyptus
species, which are often thinned and branch pruned by strong winds. Fires periodically rage
through tall open forests, with dominant species potentially killed by the intense heat.
Regeneration of the Eucalyptus trees is rapid with dense regrowth gradually thinning to an
even aged mature forest 100-150 years after fire.

Woodlands - Woodlands contain evergreen species of Eucalyptus, occasional species of


Acacia, Allocasuarina, Callitris or Melaleuca, with a Foliage Projective Cover of 10-30%. The
understory may be grassy or healthy depending on the soil nutrient status. Grassy
woodlands are characteristic of northern NSW, which merge into subtropical grassy
woodlands with different dominant Eucalyptus trees in Queensland.

1.4 Structure of Report


There are four further sections. Section 2 provides a geographic overview of the SEQ region
in terms of population and land use changes and the pressures that these are having on
regional biodiversity. Global warming and climate change is reviewed in Section 3 to provide
evidence of the certainty of changing climatic conditions. As well, this section sets the scene
for examining the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. The issues and risk
associated with biodiversity are reviewed in Section 4 in order to provide a brief appreciation
of current conditions, threats and projected impacts of climate change. Brief consideration is
given to endemic and threatened species within the SEQ region before considering the
implications for: phonological characteristics; species at the limits of their geographic range;
species richness; and refugia. Section 5 includes a discussion of requirements for adaptation
activities and future scenario mapping of the impacts of changing temperature and
precipitation on biodiversity corridors. Steps to be taken in developing future investment
strategies, with respect to conserving woody vegetation in the face of climate change, are
indicated.

1.5 Mapping Biodiversity values in SEQ Biodiversity Corridors


Maps indicating biodiversity values within biodiversity corridors produced for this Scoping
Study were prepared by South East Queensland Catchments. An explanation of the process
employed and the metadata used in the production of Maps 1.2, 2.4 - 2.8, 4.7 and 4.10 is
provided in Appendix C. Maps which entail synthesis of biophysical material were generated
using GIS by Mik Petter and Shannon Mooney from SEQ Catchments.

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2.0 South East Queensland: A Regional Overview

2.1 Geographic Perspective

South East Queensland (see Map 1.1) extends across 20 subcatchments and covers an
area of approximately 22 890 square kilometres stretching from Noosa in the north, to the
Gold Coast in the south and west to the Great Dividing Range. South East Queensland is the
most populated region within Queensland and has the largest concentration of urban
development (DIP 2008b). In terms of land use though, built up and urban areas account
for only 2.3% of the total land area. The population was 2.77 million in 2007, however
Department of Infrastructure and Planning (DIP) projections indicate that the population in
SEQ may be 4.4 million by 2031 and will account for 68% of the State’s population (DIP
2008). The current growth rate of 2.5% is expected to continue until 2011 and then ease to
2% by 2020 and lower to 1.4% by 2031. The major city in the region is Brisbane, with
extensive development in the coastal areas of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. It is the
two local government areas of Ipswich and Logan however, that are projected to have the
largest increases in future population growth (DIP 2008).

The region contains extensive alluvial valleys, volcanic hills and ranges and coastal sand
masses that support an extensive range of biodiversity. Vegetation cover is predominantly of
two types with native forests and woodlands accounting for approximately 45% while
annual crops and highly modified pasture make up around 35%. Grazing is the dominant
land use taking place on almost half the land in the region (BRS 2003). A break up of the
types of land use and vegetation cover in the region is summarised in Figure 2.1.

Vegetation
The distribution of vegetation cover types in SEQ is shown in Map 2.1. Much of the
contiguous forest areas make up the bioregional corridors that are the focus of this report.
The Comprehensive Regional Assessment for the region (CRA 1999) identified the following
forest types in SEQ:

 remnants of sub-tropical and warm temperate rainforests;


 moist eucalypt forests that are mainly restricted to the mountain regions;
 tall open forests;
 open Eucalyptus forests and woodlands;
 dry eucalypt forests;
 Melaleuca wetlands; and
 Banksia low woodlands and heaths.

In the context of the provision of corridors, native and exotic plantations may also be
included in this list. However, management practices may preclude recolonisation by many
species.

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Map 2.1: Distribution of major vegetation cover types in SEQ

Native forests and woodlands Horticultural trees and shrubs


Native shrublands and heathlands Perennial crops
Native grasslands and minimally Annual crops and highly modified
modified pastures pastures
Bare Plantation (hardwood)
Ephemeral and permanent water Plantation (softwood/mixed)
Built-up
Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences, 2003

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Figure 2.1 Land Use in South East Queensland

Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences 2003

Climate
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM 2009) reports that the SEQ region has a humid sub-
tropical climate with mild winters and warm summers. BOM (2009) identifies three climate
zones in the region (see Map 2.2), based on the ‘Koeppen’ classification system. These are:
• Temperate – no dry season (warm summer);
• Temperate – no dry season (hot summer); and
• Subtropical – no dry season.

December and January are the hottest months often experiencing days in the mid thirties.
July is the coldest month when mean temperatures may drop below 10 degrees Celsius.
Rainfall patterns are shown in Map 2.3.

BOM (2009) summarises the regional climate as follows.


• High summer rainfalls delivered by convective storms produced by low pressure
troughs moving down from the north.
• Low winter rainfalls associated with cold fronts moving up from depressions in the
south.
• The coastal area in the north of SEQ and the southern border’s coastal strip
experience annual rainfall in excess of 1200mm, while the rest of the region may
receive annual rainfalls between 650-1200mm

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Map 2.2: Climate classifications for Australia

Source: BOM 2009

Map 2.3: Regional rainfall zones of Australia

Source: BOM 2009

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2.2 SEQ Biodiversity Values, Conditions and Threats

The South East Queensland Regional Strategy for Biodiversity Conservation (EPA 2003)
describes biodiversity within the SEQ region as being one of the richest in Australia with
over 4000 plant taxa and about 800 freshwater and terrestrial vertebrates. This diverse
range of flora and fauna supports a high number of endemic, rare and endangered species
distributed through a variety of ecosystems. The region also contains significant areas that
exhibit a high richness in vegetation species (CRA 1998) and is recognised as an Australian
Biodiversity Hotspot. The subtropical rainforests of the Scenic Rim are particularly rich in
biodiversity and is acknowledged internationally as a site of global significance through its
inclusion in the UNESCO World Heritage listing (UNESCO 2009). Map 2.4 shows the
distribution of areas within SEQ’s biodiversity corridors identified by SEQ Catchments (2009)
as having high levels of species richness, while Map 2.5 shows the extent that biodiversity
corridors provide core habitat for priority taxa.

Endemic Species within the SEQ Region


South East Queensland has a high number of species which are unique to the region
(endemic). Examples of endemic species found in the biodiversity corridors of SEQ include
Macadamia integrifolia, M. ternifolia, Pittosporum oreillyanum, Triunia robusta,
Leptospermum oreophyllum, Westringia rupicola and Banksia conferta ssp. conferta.

The distribution of centres of endemism within the region’s corridors is shown in Map 2.6
(SEQC 2009). Apart from the coastal Cooloola area in the north-east and parts of the coastal
islands, many endemic species occur at higher altitudes along the Scenic Rim in the south
and south west while the remainder are found in elevated patches along the western and
northern borders of the region, the hinterland regions behind the Gold and Sunshine coasts
and the ranges north and south of Ipswich. Areas in SEQ where regional endemic species
are concentrated include:

• Noosa and Mt Coolum;


• North Stradbroke Island;
• Main Range, Lamington and Moogerah Peaks National Park;
• Blackall Ranges; and
• Palen State Forest on the Scenic Rim.

Distribution of Biodiversity Values


The Flora Data Analysis (CRA 1998) reports that many areas in SEQ identified as having a
particular biodiversity value, may also contain other biodiversity values. This is particularly
evident in the region’s biodiversity corridors. Map 2.8 illustrates the distribution of areas
within the corridors that contain multiple biodiversity values. These areas not only represent
high value conservation targets but may also indicate areas of high return for future
investment strategies.

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Map 2.4: Areas with high species richness within biodiversity corridors

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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Map 2.5: Core habitat for priority taxa within biodiversity corridors

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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Map 2.6: Centres of endemism within biodiversity corridors

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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Refugia

The IPCC (2002) define ‘refugia’ (biodiversity refuges) as areas identified as being able to
better withstand changes in climate due to their location, elevation, size, slope, aspect or
other geographical feature. These areas enhance natural resilience against stressors
including human disturbance and may play a significant role in the conservation of species
and ecosystems vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Morton et al. (1995) identifies
nine categories of refugia:
• Islands
• Mound springs
• Caves
• Wetlands
• Gorges
• Mountain ranges
• Ecological refuges
• Refuges from exotic animals
• Refuges from land clearing

Major threats to refugia are identical to those facing biodiversity in general in SEQ and
include: land degradation resulting from agricultural practices; over-grazing by domestic
stock; changes in hydrology; removal of habitats by large scale clearing for urbanization;
and inappropriate fire regimes.

The 1998 Flora Data Analysis of SEQ (CRA 1998) reports that for this region refugia
includes:
• mountain ranges or areas of higher elevation;
• island environments such as Moreton and Stradbroke Island; and
• the contiguous parabolic dune and floodplains illustrated by the Cooloola forest area.

Climatic refugia relates to areas of importance in the evolution of Australian flora, fauna,
landscapes or climate. Contemporary refugia relates to areas important in maintaining
existing processes or natural systems at regional and national scales. Both climatic refugia
and contemporary refugia have been mapped for SEQ using a range of data layers held by
departments and agencies of the Queensland Government.

Refugia in biodiversity corridors in SEQ (CRA 1998) are shown schematically in Map 2.7.
Areas identified as climatic refugia in SEQ include the following:
• The Scenic Rim encompassing elevated areas with cool and warm temperate
rainforest ecosystems. Additionally, Eucalyptus obliqua ecosystems.
• Moreton Basin containing Brigalow, vine thicket, poplar box communities (west of
Ipswich)
• Cooloola and Eurimbula specifically rainforest complexes associated with dune
systems/swales.

Examples of areas considered as contemporary refugia in SEQ CRA (1998) are as follows:
• Notophyll vine forest - moist sub-coastal ranges Moreton region, Conondale Ranges,
Buderim Mountain footslopes, Kin Kin Scrub remnants.
• Notophyll vine forest - Upland Kroombit occurrence
• Complex Notophyll vine forest - McPherson Range, Mt Tamborine, Mt Glorious, Main
Range and Mt Mee.
• Microphyll mossy forest - Acmena smithii, Acacia melanoxylon in the Main Range.

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Map 2.7: Refugia in biodiversity corridors

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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Map 2.8: Areas with high biodiversity values within biodiversity corridors

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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2.3 Pressures on Biodiversity

The Draft SEQ Regional Plan 2009-2031 states that the region’s population growth, and the
related urban and rural development, is increasing the pressure on the natural environment.
Continued loss of natural areas and degradation of natural environmental processes will
adversely affect the region’s biodiversity, resilience to climate change, air and water quality,
agriculture, economic potential and public health. Ultimately, these factors will affect the
region’s liveability (DIP 2008a).

There is however, clear evidence that the biodiversity values of the SEQ region have already
been seriously compromised by anthropomorphic change. For example, the Comprehensive
Regional Assessment estimated that 55% of the region’s native vegetation had been cleared
by 1999 (CRA 1999). Further, the South East Queensland Biodiversity Assessment Report
(ANRA 2009) describes the overall condition of biodiversity in SEQ as only ‘fair’. The report
further points out that the region is heavily impacted by human activities and that significant
intervention will be required to prevent further declines in biodiversity values. As another
example, the Landscape Health Report (Gethin 2000) ranks much of the SEQ region as three
on a scale ranging from one (most stressed) to six (least stressed). Notable exceptions
include the extensively cleared Moreton Basin subregion which scores a one and the
Cooloola National Park which scores a six.

The predominant human-induced stressors on the biodiversity of South East Queensland


include rapid clearing due to urbanisation and agriculture; fragmentation which reduces the
viability of isolated patches; pest invasion by both flora and fauna; and limited areas for
reservation. Land clearing and fragmentation of forests have also seen a decline in the
abundance of species, particularly in lowland areas. Lowland rainforest, red gum woodlands
and the tall paperbark forests have all been severely impacted by the expansion of
agriculture and urbanisation (CRA 1999). Habitat in hills and ranges however have suffered
less and still retain a high proportion of their natural vegetation cover and wildlife. This is
evident in the distribution of bioregional corridors which are mostly confined to the upland
areas (see Map 2.9).

Currently, woody vegetation (as operationally defined in Section 1.3) covers 40-60% of the
SEQ NRM region (Map 1.2). The 2007 Statewide Landcover and Trees Study (SLATS)
however, reports that the annual average clearing rate of wooded area is around 2-3% and
that 5 751 hectares of woody vegetation was cleared in 2006 – 2007 (DNRW 2008). The
area cleared was higher than the previous two years but significantly less than the 9 969
hectares cleared in 2003. The bulk of the clearing carried out in 2006 – 2007 was conducted
within two catchments, with Maroochy River subcatchment accounting for 24.2% of the land
cleared and the Brisbane River subcatchment accounting for a further 21.7%.

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The report also indicated that the major replacement land covers for woody vegetation after
clearing are:
 infrastructure and settlement (39.1%);
 pasture and cropping (36.0%);
 forestry (21.9%); and
 mining (2.9%).

A significant constraint in planning and conserving biodiversity for the future lies in land
tenure. EPA (2009) claim that about 4.3 million hectares within the SEQ bioregion are
privately owned, while the state government holds approximately 1.8 million hectares. The
DNRW estimated that land clearing on freehold and leasehold properties made up 83.3% of
land cleared in SEQ during 2006-2007 (DNRW 2008). As such, the development of private
land holder partnerships and the promotion of cooperative programs such as Land for
Wildlife, National Reserve System and Local Government voluntary conservation covenants
is an essential strategic element to sustain and expand the current biodiversity corridor
network.

Processes that continue to threaten regional biodiversity have been identified and are
discussed in a wide range of documents including the National Strategy for the Conservation
of Australia's Biological Diversity (DEST 1996). These may be summarised as:
• Changed water availability and use;
• continuing degradation and fragmentation of the landscape resulting from changes in
land use;
• exploitation of the landscape by exotic weeds and feral animals;
• altered fire regimes; and
• climate change.

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Map 2.9: Elevation of biodiversity corridors

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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3.0 Global Warming and Climate Change: An Overview

3.1 Evidence of the certainty of global climate change

In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment
Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In the two
decades since its inception, a massive international scientific effort has been undertaken to
answer two fundamental questions: Is current global climate variability outside of the Earth’s
normal range, and if so, is it a result of human activities?

In its Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, the IPCC concluded that:

• ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations


of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice and rising global average sea level.’

• ‘Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many
natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly
temperature increases.’

• ‘The radiative forcing of the climate system is dominated by the long-lived green
house gases (primarily carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) which have
increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed
pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the natural
range over the last 650,000 years. Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due
primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but
smaller contribution.’

IPCC (2007) emphasise that the accumulation of these gases to date, and their longevity in
the atmosphere, means that the world is now committed to an enhanced greenhouse effect
for many decades to come even if all further emissions were stopped immediately. The IPCC
take the position given that global emissions currently exceed the high end of anticipated
trajectories and show no signs of slowing down, it is reasonable to conclude that major
climatic changes are inevitable and that adaptation to the impacts will be necessary.
However, this does not preclude the need for immediate and meaningful international,
national and personal mitigation efforts to reduce the severity of future consequences.

3.2 Climate Change: Global and Australian Trends

The IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) projected a global surface warming
of between 1oC and 6.4oC by 2100. In 2001 an IPCC assessment of risks from temperature
increases was synthesised into the “burning embers” diagram. The research behind the
diagram suggested that a guardrail goal of a 2 o C increase in mean global temperatures
would provide a reasonable buffer against dangerous climate change conditions. A review of

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current research has shown however, that the 2001 results underestimated the impacts of
climate change on the environment and that significant deleterious risk will occur below the
2 o C guardrail (Smith et al 2009). Figure 3.1 illustrates the difference between the 2001
and 2009 reports regarding the severity of potential impacts from increased global mean
temperatures.

Figure 3.1: Deleterious climate impacts by temperature rise

Source: IARU (2009)

IPCC (2007) reported that regional-scale changes are expected to include: warming greatest
over land; an increase in hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation; poleward shift
of extra-tropical storm tracks with consequent changes in wind, precipitation and
temperature patterns; and decreases in precipitation in most subtropical land regions.
Particular terrestrial ecosystems likely to be affected by climate change include: tundra,
boreal forest, and mountain regions because of sensitivity to warming; and Mediterranean-
type ecosystems and rainforests due to reductions in rainfall (IPCC 2007).

Hennessy et al (2007) state that ultimately, temperature is likely to become warmer, with
changes in rainfall variable according to the subregional topographic conditions. The
authors report that for Australia, areas up to 400kms inland from the coast, are projected to
experience temperature increases ranging between +0.1°C and 1.0C° by 2020, +0.3C° to
2.7C° by 2050, and +0.4C° to 5.4C° by 2080. Precipitation in the subtropics of Australia
(latitudes 20-28oS) is projected to change by -10mm to +5mm by 2020, -27mm to +13mm
by 2050, and -54 mm to +27mm by 2080.

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3.3 Global Climate Models and Patterns of Change

Global climate modelling has advanced considerably since the IPCC released its First
Assessment Report in 1990. Better data sets, superior computing power, and evolving
scientific knowledge of the interaction of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial systems have
enabled newer models to simulate existing climate conditions at a finer spatial resolution
and with greater accuracy than earlier models. The accuracy of regional modelling has also
increased. Nonetheless, global climate modelling remains an extremely complex, costly and
time intensive exercise that is currently only conducted by a handful of countries that
possess the necessary scientific knowledge and financial resources. This makes it difficult for
researchers, planners and policy makers in less advantaged countries to obtain a wide range
of regionally relevant scenarios from different global circulation models (GCMs) that consider
alternative emission scenarios.

Given the practical limitations of obtaining GCM output at a regional and local scale, the
SimCLIM 1 software program has been used to develop the scenarios for this report.
SimCLIM uses the linked pattern scaling approach. This approach applies climate change
patterns produced by complex GCMs to a simplified model which calculates the change in
global temperature that will result under selected emissions scenarios. The patterns of
change are applied spatially in 125 by 125 km grids to scale up or down historic temperature
and precipitation data.

Presently, there are more than two dozen scientifically credible GCMs in use around the
world. Given the extreme complexity of simulating all of the atmospheric, terrestrial and
oceanic interactions, the models produce somewhat different patterns of change depending
on the variables that are included and the specifications of their interactions. The models
used to produce the scenarios in this study was chosen for its ability to accurately simulate
current conditions for Australia, including temperature, precipitation and regional events
such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation 2.

Emission Scenarios
Projections of climate change depend heavily upon future human activity. As a result climate
models must make assumptions about how the future of global emissions of greenhouse
gases will unfold over the rest of the century. The IPCC has developed an elaborate set of
internally consistent and plausible emissions scenarios to describe possible future states of
the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. These are depicted below in Figure 3.2. The
scenarios for this Scoping Report use A1B as a mid-range emissions scenario while A1FI
scenarios are used to indicate upper boundaries of risk. It should be noted however that
greenhouse gas emissions generated from the IPCC’s worst case scenario has already been
exceeded (Figure 3.3). Most of the scenarios constructed for this Scoping Report are for
the years 2050 and 2100 as these provide a useful interim time period over which impacts
can be clearly identified and adaptive strategies evaluated.

1
SimCLIM is the outcome of ten years of collaborative research at the International Global Change Institute at
the University of Waikato in New Zealand. It is in widespread use around the world. CSIRO uses a variant of the
SimCLIM software developed for Australia called OZClim.
2
Models used in this paper were selected based on their M-Skill score, a measure of their ability to simulate
current climate conditions and phenomena.
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Figure 3.2: IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios

Source: IPCC 2000

Figure 3.3: GHG emissions 1990 to 2007 against SRES emission scenarios

Source: IARU (2009)

Carbon Cycle and Climate Sensitivity


Climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature
following a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 (equivalent) concentration. The IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report indicates that the value is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best
estimate of about 3° C. Uncertainty arises due to the complex nature of system feedbacks
including those involving water vapour feedback, ice-albedo feedback, cloud feedback, and
lapse rate feedback. Unless otherwise stated, the scenarios produced in this Scoping
Report uses a mid sensitivity value from the IPCC Third Assessment Report of
approximately 2.5° C.

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4.0 Climate Change and Biodiversity

4.1 Climate Change and Biodiversity: Setting the Scene

In its 2002 Special Report on Biodiversity and Climate Change the IPCC concluded that
human activities have caused and will continue to cause a loss in biodiversity and that
climate change will exert additional stress on biodiversity (IPCC 2002). Climate change is
projected to affect individual organisms, populations, species distribution, and ecosystem
composition and function both directly (through increased temperatures and changes in
precipitation patterns) and indirectly (through changes in intensity and frequency of
disturbances). The impacts and trends over the last century of different drivers on major
global biomes based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessments are shown in Figure 4.1.
Climate change is shown as having a very rapid rate of increasing impact on all biomes and
while shown as having low or moderate levels of impact in the 20th Century, it is anticipated
to produce high and very high impacts over the 21st.

Figure 4.1: Impacts and trends of different drivers on major global biomes

Source: IARU 2009

Given the vast scope of climate change issues, the potential severity of the impacts and the
brief time frame in which an effective management response will be required, the task
facing environmental managers is formidable. Regardless of the efforts, it is unlikely that
current levels of biodiversity can be maintained and irrecoverable losses may be
unavoidable. Low (2007) reports that for a 2oC temperature rise, estimates of global
extinction rates are as high as 52%. Dunlop et al (2008) may have succinctly affirmed the

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overall position for environmental managers when they said “Environmental change is
inevitable – the challenge for biodiversity conservation is to be able to manage change to
minimise undesired losses”.
The development of successful management plans will require a number of fundamental
questions to be addressed. Firstly, what is the nature of the climatic changes and how will
they impact on biodiversity? Secondly, how will species and ecosystems respond to these
changes? And thirdly, what options are available to minimise harm?

4.2 Climate projections for SEQ


CSIRO (2006) projections for South East Queensland predict a warmer and drier future with
an increase in extreme climatic events. Anticipated changes by 1930 include:

• Temperature increases of between 0.4 0C and 1.90C;


• An increase in heatwave duration and intensity;
• More frequent periods of drought;
• A reduction in rainfall by up to 13 percent;
• more intensive rainfall events; and
• An increase in the peripheral effects from tropical cyclone activity including storm
surge and more intensive wind speeds

The effects by 2070 are expected to be even further pronounced with:

• temperature increases of up to 6.0 0C;


• a tenfold increase in days over 35 0C; and
• a 40% reduction in rainfall.

Map 4.1: Baseline mean annual temperature and precipitation for SEQ

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Changes in Temperature
SimCLIM climate change software was employed to generate potential climatic conditions in
SEQ for 2050 and 2100. Two scenarios were produced using the HADGEM climate model,
one with an A1B emissions scenario with a mid range climate sensitivity and the other using
an A1FI emission scenario with high climate sensitivity. These are shown in Map 4.2. The
mean annual temperature for the current climate is shown in Map 4.1. The results indicated
an average increase for the regional mean annual tempuratures of between 1.6o C and 2.9o
C by 2050, while increases of between 2.9o C and 7.0o C were produced for 2100. Site
specific results for a mid range scenario are shown in Figure 4.2.

Changes in seasonal temperatures were examined under a moderate temperature change


scenario for 2050. The model outputs indicated a reasonably consistent temperature rise of
between 1.4 ° C (autumn) and 1.7° C (spring). Further modelling is recommended to
determine changes in minimum temperatures and seasonal shifts that may affect key
phonological characteristics such as bud break or insect life cyclesAverage maximum
summer temperatures were modeled for a moderate temperature change scenario . The
results, shown in Map 4.4, project a 2° C increase by 2050 and 4°C increase by 2100.
Additional modelling indicated an increase in days over 35o C throughout the region (Table
4.1). Under worst case condition inland areas were projected to experience days over 35o C
for up to three months a year on average by 2100. Lack of suitable temperature data for
many inland areas prevented a more representative analysis of the region.

Figure 4.2: Changes in Mean Annual Temperature for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100

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Map 4.2: Mean Annual Temperature projections - SEQ 2050 and 2100

Baseline (1961-1990) 2050 (HadGEM, A1B, Mid) 2100 (HadGEM, A1B, Mid)

2050 (HadGEM, A1FI, High) 2100 (HadGEM, A1FI, High)

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Changes in Precipitation
Precipitation patterns in SEQ have experienced a drying trend of 50 mm per decade since
the 1950s REF. This trend is anticipated to continue into the future, though some models
provide a slightly wetter outlook. Due to the complexity of the precipitation processes, there
is less agreement among modelled rainfall projections than those produced for temperature,
creating difficulties for the development of strategic adaptive management plans. For this
reason it is prudent to test adaptation actions with a ‘no regrets policy’ against a model with
a level of risk appropriate to the level of investment.

Projections for a ‘moderately drier’ and ‘much drier’ scenario were produced for SEQ in 2050
and 2100 and are shown in Map 4.3. Results projected a decrease in rainfall of between
5% and 31% for 2050 and a decrease of between and 21% and 47% for 2100. Site specific
results for a mid range scenario are shown in Figure 4.3.

Additional projections were generated for changes in seasonal rainfall for 2050 using a
range of different models. The results, shown in Map A3 indicated that there may be shifts
in seasonal patterns that may have phenological implications. Further monthly rainfall
modelling needs to be undertaken for 2050 and 2100 to determine the extent and
implications of the shifting patterns.

Further projections of climate change for SEQ are included in Appendix A and Appendix B
including site specific projections for selected locations in the SEQ region.

Figure 4.3: Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100

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Map 4.3: Mean annual precipitation projections - SEQ 2050 and 2100

Moderately Drier ( HadCM3, A1B1, mid sensitivity)

Baseline (1961-1990) 2050 2100

Much Drier (HadGEM, A1FI, high sensitivity)

2050 2100

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Extreme Climatic Events
While the greenhouse gas induced warming trend will have consequences for biodiversity,
the most severe and abrupt impacts on species and ecosystems could occur through
extreme events. The extent by which changes in the mean and variance of climatic
conditions can increase the occurrence of extreme events is demonstrated in Figure 4.4.

Figure 4.4: Changes in extreme events due to shifts in mean and variance

Source: IPCC 2007

Extreme climatic events that impact on the biodiversity may include:

 higher maximum temperatures;


 longer periods of consecutive days over 35 °C placing organisms under extreme
stress;
 increased frequency and intensity of droughts;
 more intensive rainfall events resulting in flooding and increased erosion;
 higher evaporation rates changing environmental water balances;
 increased incidence and intensity of cyclonic and other storm activity; and
 the loss of coastal habitat through sea level rise and increased storm surge.

Apart from these direct influences, changing climate will produce conditions that stimulate
indirect influences which may significantly impact on already stressed ecosystems. Indirect
influences include events such as:

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 higher humidity resulting in greater susceptibility to disease and pathogens,
especially in eucalypts;
 loss and damage from more intense and frequent bushfires;
 loss of existing altitudinal refuges;
 changes in catchment water balance due to decreased rainfall, increased
evaporation, decreased runoff and increased demand from human adaptation
activities;
 altered community dynamics due to changes in phenology of individual species; and
 impacts from increases in the range of weed and pest distribution.

Maximum Average Temperatures for Summer


Average maximum temperature is defined as the average of the highest ten percent of
values for any given period, in this case the summer months of December, January and
February. Projections for current mean summer maximums for SEQ as well as projections
for 2050 and 2100 are shown in Map 4.4. Under the A1B emissions scenario, average
maximum temperatures in the region will rise by approximately 2° C by 2050 and 4°C by
2100. The fact that temperature increases will continue at the same rate from 2050 to 2100
even though the modelled emissions are declining through that period, illustrates the
longevity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the considerable amount of time it
takes for the system to reach a new state of equilibrium.

The biodiversity impacts due to high temperature periods predominantly relate to habitat
loss, damage and change due to bushfire and temperature stress for vegetation. Most
significantly, small endemic patches of vulnerable or endangered woody vegetation may be
at higher risk due to extreme heat stress days. Return periods for extreme heat days are
also projected to increase in both range and frequency. Projections demonstrating the
number of days over 35 °C for selected sites in SEQ are shown in Table 4.1.

Map 4.4: Maximum Average Summer Temperature for SEQ – Dec, Jan, Feb

Baseline HadCM3 A1B HadCM3 A1B


Year: 2050 Year: 2100

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Table 4.1: Projections for days over 35 °C in SEQ (A1FI scenario)
Brisbane Toowoomba Nambour
Model* Mid High Mid High Mid High
Baseline 2 2 3 3 6 6
2050 3-7 5-7 6-8 9 10 - 15 14 - 20
2100 14 - 41 57 - 93 20 - 52 54 - 69 28 - 44 64 - 110
*Range produced from representative spread of GCM models: HadGEM (least hot days), CSIRO (mid)
and HadCM3 (most hot days), A1FI emission scenario, results for mid and high climate sensitivity
shown.

Drought
The recent drought in SEQ is the longest and driest on record and comes on the tail of a
drying trend which has seen a 50mm reduction in rainfall per decade since the 1950s (see
Map 4.5). Most climate models (but not all), project the continuation of a drying trend into
the future. This has also been accompanied by a warming trend of about 0.2oC per decade
since the 1950s (Map 4.6), a trend that is projected to continue (if not accelerate) during
the 21st Century. SEQ is one of the few areas in Australia which has experienced peak
conditions for both drying and warming trends.

Map 4.5: Australian rainfall tends 1950 – 2007 Map 4.6: Australian temperature trends 1950 – 2007

Source: CSIRO

While Australian forests have adapted to past drought conditions, climate change will expose
many species and ecosystems to climatic range not previously experienced (Hughes et al
1996). Species with limited distribution that are unable to adapt or migrate are most at risk.
Potential impacts by increasingly recurring and extended periods of drought include:

 changes in species population, abundance and distribution;


 changes in biodiversity;
 reduced forestry productivity;
 reduction in nutrient quality of foliage and disruption to food chains;
 increased damage to forests through die back, bush fires and stress; and
 increased invasion of pests and weeds into disturbed areas.
(DoCC 2009).

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CSIRO modelling undertaken for the 2008 drought policy review (Hennessy et al 2008)
indicated major increments for Queensland in the overall area that will be affected by
exceptionally hot years. Return periods for exceptionally hot years were also projected to
decrease from approximately one in every 22 year events to 1 in every 1 to 2 years. Other
drought indicators such as low rainfall years and low soil moisture years were also projected
to affect more areas and to occur more frequently as shown in Figure 4.5.

Figure 4.5: Drought indicator projections for Queensland

Source: Hennessy et al 2008

Bushfires and Climate Change


While much of the Australian vegetation has adapted to fire, the intensity and frequency of
fires under climate change conditions are likely to cause significant stress to individual
species and ecosystems. The areas in SEQ most at risk from changing bushfire regimes are
the large contiguous forested areas designated as biodiversity corridors and isolated
remnants. Increases in the intensity and frequency of bushfires can result in:

• the loss of tissue and seed in the ground that may survive and propagate after less
intensive fires (Gill);
• the loss of soil organisms that enhance plant growth and resilience;
• the loss of immature trees, causing systems changes to lag decades behind climate
change;
• changes in soil chemistry; and
• disturbances that promote widespread weed dispersal.

Climatic conditions influence bushfire activity in a number of ways including:


• the chances of a fire starting;
• its subsequent rate of spread;
• the intensity; and
• the level of difficulty to successfully suppress it.

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These influences are all likely to increase under the hotter, drier conditions climate change is
anticipated to bring. The impact of intensive fires can be significantly greater than those that
occur under more moderate conditions. For example, during the Victorian 2003 bushfire
season less than 1% of the fires burnt more than 99% of the total area burnt and 85% of
fires burnt less than 0.01% of the total area (Tolhurst 2003).

The significant shift in fire regimes under climate change conditions is addressed by Lucas et
al (2007). Their findings indicate an exacerbation of the fire-weather risk on any given day
leading to an increase in extreme, very extreme* and catastrophic* fire weather days.
Additionally, it was found an increase in the number of days having high fire risks, extending
the length of the fire season and reducing the number of days suitable for controlled
burning. Inland regions will be more fire prone than coastal areas. The range of projected
outcomes of case studies for Brisbane and Amberley are shown in Table 4.2. By 2050 (high
scenario) the Brisbane area may see up to a doubling of extreme fire-weather days while
Amberley may experience a 146% increase. Increases in return periods for ‘Catastrophic’
fire-weather days were not forecast for Brisbane but their occurrence in western areas such
as Amberley may potentially become a decadal event.

Table 4.2: Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) projections Brisbane and Amberley

* Very extreme and catastrophic are not official categories. Lucas et al introduced these to classify potential fire

2020 2050 2020 2050


Brisbane Brisbane Amberley Amberley
∑ FFDI (% change) 0-5 2-19 1-7 3-24
Days Fire Danger Rating > Very High
2-14 7-63 6-23 11-70
(% change)
Days Fire Danger Rating > Extreme
6-31 6-106 12-42 22-142
(% change)
Return Period for Days FFDI > 75 Not likely to
8.2 - 11 3.7 – 6.6 2.1 – 6.6
Current: Brisbane Nil, Amberley 11 occur
Return Period for Days FFDI > 100 Not likely to Not likely to
0 - 33 11 - 33
Current: Brisbane Nil, Amberley Nil occur occur
risk levels not frequently experienced under current climate conditions.
Source: Lucas et al 2007

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Storms and Cyclones
Disturbances by severe storms and cyclones are a natural part of a forest’s ecology,
providing opportunities for new growth and colonisation. Figure 4.6 shows cyclonic activity
and trends for Australia between 1969 and 2005 which indicates a decreasing trend for the
number of cyclones but an increase in their severity. In SEQ the current frequency and
impacts of cyclones is not high, though future projections indicate that the range of tropical
cyclones may be extended further south under climate change conditions and that the
frequency of severe cyclones will increase (BOM 2008). Storms and cyclones may create
additional stressors such as: widespread defoliation; breakage of crown stems and
associated tree falls; and loss of vines and understorey. Additional environmental changes
may include: changes in forest microclimates; complex vegetation and faunal responses to
conditions; and an accelerated invasion by exotic plants leading to a decline in biodiversity
(Turton and Dale 2007).

Figure 4.6: Cyclonic activity in Australia 1969 - 2005

Garnaut (2008) summarised recent studies for tropical cyclone changes in the Australian
region under climate change conditions and reported that:

• No significant change in tropical cyclone numbers off the east coast of Australia to
the middle of the 21st century. (However CSIRO study shows decrease.)
• Simulations show more long-lived eastern Australian tropical cyclones
• Studies agree on a marked increase in the severe Category 3 - 5 storms, by up 60%
by 2030 and 140% by 2070.
• Some studies reported a poleward extension of tropical cyclone tracks with cyclone
genesis shifting 200 km south and cyclone decay occurring 300 km south of historic
latitudes by 2050.
• Strong cyclones will reach the coast and ‘super cyclones’ of unprecedented intensity
may develop over the next 50 years.

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4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity

Climate change and climate variability affect individual organisms, populations, species
distribution, and ecosystem composition. Impacts may be direct, such as through changes in
temperatures and precipitation patterns or indirect, through changes in intensity and
frequency of disturbances. The degree of impact will be a function of the cumulative effect
of the intensity of human land and water use and the climate variation. Processes such as
habitat loss, modification, fragmentation as well as the introduction and spread of non-
native species, greatly affect how an organism is able to respond to climate modification
(IPCC 2002).

A review of issues undertaken by the Heinz Centre (2008) identified the range of climate
change outcomes that will need to be addressed by conservation managers. These included:

• Shifts in species distributions, often along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients;


• Changes in the timing of life history events, or phenology, for particular species;
• Decoupling of coevolved interactions, such as plant-pollinator relationships;
• Reductions in population size (especially for boreal or montane species);
• Extinction or extirpation of range-restricted or isolated species and populations;
• Loss of habitat due to
• sea level rise,
• increased fire frequency,
• increased intensity and duration of pest outbreaks,
• altered weather patterns and
• direct warming of habitats (such as streams);
• Increased spread of wildlife diseases, parasites, and zoonoses; and
• Increased spread of invasive or non-native species, including plants, animals, and
pathogens.

The IPCC (2002) report that the species most susceptible to climate change will be those
with limited climatic ranges, restricted habitat requirements, particular physiological or
phenological traits and those with limited dispersal mechanisms. Species with wide non-
patchy ranges, rapid dispersal mechanisms and large populations are normally at less risk of
extinction. How well species and communities respond to changing conditions, will depend
on inherent climatic tolerances and their adaptive capacity.

The degree of impacts from global warming will be further compounded by human land and
water use patterns. Disturbances to these systems can affect the ability of organisms to
adapt, hastening the rate of species loss and increasing the risk of extinction for vulnerable
species. The distribution of endangered, vulnerable and rare taxa in biodiversity corridors is
shown in Map 4.7. A list of plant species at risk in SEQ is shown in Appendix D. It should
be noted however, that disturbances can also create opportunities for the establishment of
new species, particularly woody vegetation and other plants. Areas affected by disturbances
can be colonised by regrowth of the original species, retreating climate refugees, pioneer
plants extending their range or opportunistic invasions by weeds. Action plans to control

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Map 4.7: Habitat for EVR taxa within biodiversity corridors

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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invasive pest species during disturbances will provide opportunities to facilitate natural
regeneration and enhance the establishment of desirable species and maintain the integrity
of biodiversity corridors.

Research regarding biodiversity and climate change is new and emerging. Nonetheless, the
international scientific community has observed a number of impacts on ecosystems, taxa
and individual species from global warming (Parmesan 2005). Despite these, an
understanding of the behaviour of species and systems under new climate regimes is
difficult to predict. As Hughes et al (1996), Low (2007) and others point out, the tolerance
of many species to variations in rainfall and temperature is not well known and the manner
in which the loss of species or changes in phenology will affect complex and integrated
ecosystems is an area that requires ongoing research. This general finding applies equally to
the biodiversity corridors of the SEQ region.

The Australian Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability report (Allen Consulting 2005) states
that the ability of many species to naturally adapt to changing climatic conditions will be
limited and species that undergo severe climatic stress are likely to be replaced by others
better suited to the new conditions. In many cases direct and indirect human intervention
may be required through strategic actions such as restoration, translocation and reserve
management plans. Management plans that aim to build community resilience and reduce
other stressors such as weed infestations and intense bushfire events are also viewed as a
feasible approach to reduce cumulative stresses, which would enable impacted species to
better respond to global warming (Allen Consulting 2005). Therefore, it is highly
recommended that strategies for reducing the impacts of climate change include the
reduction of known controllable stress variables.

Impact Mechanisms
The IPCC (2002) warns that climate change will increasingly drive biodiversity loss, affecting
both individual species and their ecosystems. Impacts from climate change occur through
direct and indirect mechanisms which may act independently or in unison with other
stressors. A study of climate change stressors on biodiversity in British Columbia notes that
adaptive responses at the species level are most likely to occur through: range and
abundance shifts; changes in phenology, physiology and behaviour; and evolutionary
change, while changes in structure, function, patterns of disturbance, and the increased
dominance of invasive species are potential impacts at the ecosystem level (Biodiversity BC
2007). Examples of the relationships between climate change stressors, impact mechanisms
and biodiversity impacts are shown in Figure 4.7.

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Figure 4.7: Climate change stressor, impact mechanisms and impacts

Life Cycle Changes


Climate Change Stressors Impact Mechanisms Biodiversity Impact

Timing of Life History Altered Changes in


Increased Average Changes in Annual Events Changes Synchronisation Community
Annual Temperature Temperature (Migrations, breeding, Between Trophic Assemblage and
emergence, etc) Levels Functioning

Range and Abundance Shifts


Climate Change Stressors Impact Mechanisms Biodiversity Impact
Highly Mobile Species
Migrate or Increase
Range
Increased Average Geographic Shift in Localised Changes/
Annual Temperature Climatic Suitability Redistributions in Species
Less Mobile Species Abundance
Suffer Reduced
Abundance

Evolutionary Effects
Climate Change Stressors Impact Mechanisms Biodiversity Impact

Increased Average Range and Selection Pressure: Loss of Genetic


Annual Temperature Abundance Shifts Individuals with Higher Diversity
Genetic Capacity for
Adaptation s are
Changes in Phenological Favoured New Community
Precipitation Patterns Changes Others are Extirpated Assemblages

Disturbance Regimes and Ecosystems-Level


Change
Climate Change Stressors Impact Mechanisms Biodiversity Impact

Increased Summer Insect Epidemic Change in Forest Ecosystem


Temperature Forest Drought: Structure and Function
Stressed Trees and
Drying of Fuels
Decreased Summer Major Bushfires Change in Ecosystem Type
Precipitation and Distribution

Source: Biodiversity BC 2007

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Vulnerability of Gondwana Rainforests

Rainforests are renowned for their species richness and are known to be vulnerable
to changing climatic conditions (IPCC 2002). Although rainforests cover only about
0.3 % of Australia, the World Conservation Monitoring Centre report that they
contain about half of all Australian plant families and about a third of Australia's
mammal and bird species (UNEP 2008). Within the SEQ region, the Border Ranges
has been identified nationally as a biodiversity hotspot containing high levels of
species richness and endemic populations (DECC 2009). In 1994 the area was
incorporated within the Gondwana Rainforests World Heritage Area which contains
warm temperate, cool temperate, sub-tropical and dry rainforests. As such, this area
needs special consideration with respect to investment strategies that are aimed at
conserving the biodiversity values of woody vegetation groups.

A rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts on the rainforests of in the


Border Ranges in the Southern Scenic Rim was undertaken by Professor Dick
Warrick in 2007 using SimCLIM to develop climate change scenarios (Warrick 2008).
The relationship between rainfall and the occurrence of rainforest of the Border
Ranges in the Gondwana Rainforests World Heritage Area was examined using a
mean annual rainfall of 1200mm as a threshold value for rainforests across a range
of soil types. This figure was derived from data developed by Ash (1988).

The results of this rapid assessment are shown in Map 4.8 and they demonstrate a
strong correlation between the boundaries of the Gondwana Rainforests World
Heritage Area and current rainfall conditions (ie an annual rainfall of 1200 mm).
However, when modelled under a drying climate scenario (Hadley GCM, A1FI
emission scenario), the generated rainfall values shown in Map 4.9 for 2100 were
below the rainforest threshold level for most of the World Heritage Area. This would
indicate that overall, the area may no longer be capable of supporting major stands
of rainforest. Confronting and managing the heritage conservation implications of
the potential loss of an internationally significant habitat currently conserved within
the boundaries of a World Heritage Area will be a considerable challenge. Those
charged with the task and will require a deep understanding of changing
temperature and rainfall regimes in relation to the of the soil moisture required for
the continuance of rainforest species.

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Map 4.8: Mean Annual Rainfall over 1200mm in the Border Ranges (1961 – 1990)

Map 4.9: Projected rainfall over 1200mm in the Border Ranges in 2100

H
a
d
l
e
y

G
C
M
,

A1FI emission scenario

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4.4 Biodiversity Responses to Climate Change

Changes in Phenology
IPCC (2002) indicate that climate is a key component in determining the distribution,
behaviour and morphology of plants and animals. Many species have already shown
changes in climate-associated characteristics. A 2003 comprehensive analysis of studies on
climate-linked characteristics by Parmesan and Yohe (2003) found that 80% of the studies
‘showed changes in the biological parameter measured (e.g., start and end of breeding
season, shifts in migration patterns, shifts in animal and plant distributions and changes in
body size) in the manner expected with global warming’. Changes in climate triggered
biological phenomena (phenology) such as breeding and migration are of particular concern.

The IPCC (2002) reports that changes in phenology are usually linked closely to simple
climate variables such as maximum or minimum temperatures or accumulated degree-days.
Observed trends such as earlier bud break and earlier flowering are expected to continue.
However, physiological changes may not change in concert. For example, a plant responds
to signals from both seasonal and diurnal changes in temperature and the length of daylight
hours.

Also, a phenological response of one species may not match that of another food or
predator species, leading to mismatches in timing of critical life stages or behaviours
(Parmesan 2005). For example, the decoupling of insect hatching with the arrival of
migratory birds may not only lead to a loss of a food resource for the birds but may also
result in an uncontrolled population of pest species due to a lack of predation.

Gitay et al (2003) report that changes in climate often affect vulnerable life stages such as
seedling establishment. However, this may not cause mortality among mature individuals
and changes in systems may lag years to decades behind climate change. The IPCC (2002),
report that migration to suitable new habitats may also lag decades behind climate change.
The report goes on to state that where climate-related stresses such as increased pests and
diseases causes increased mortality of long lived species, recovery to their previous state
may take decades to centuries, if at all.

Feedback Mechanisms
Changes in biodiversity may also lead to feedbacks that affect regional climate. The IPCC
(2002) report that changes in genetic or species biodiversity can lead to changes in the
structure and functioning of ecosystems and their interaction with water, carbon, nitrogen,
and other major biogeochemical cycles and so affect climate. Human actions leading to long
term clearing and the loss of woody vegetation have and continue to contribute significantly
to Green House Gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The report further states that
evapotranspiration affects the local hydrological cycle, thus a reduction in vegetative cover
may lead to reduced precipitation at a local and regional scale and change the frequency
and persistence of droughts.

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Changes in Distribution
IPCC projections (2002) indicate that where possible, the habitats of many species will shift
poleward or upward from their current locations. Individual species will be affected by
climate change differently, with migration occurring at different times and at varying rates.
Processes such as habitat loss, modification and fragmentation, as well as the introduction
and spread of non-native species, will greatly affect an organism’s ability to respond via
migration.

Changes in the range of some climate-sensitive species have already been observed and
reported in a number of national and international studies. Poleward shifts of European
butterflies and sub-arctic and sub-Antarctic birds are well documented as well as changes in
altitudinal ranges which have been noted in South American rainforests (Parmesan 2005). In
Australia the spread of snow gums into the alpine meadows of the Australian Alps has raised
concerns, as has the encroachment of mangroves into freshwater wetlands of the Northern
Territory and the increasing frequency and intensity of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier
Reef (Howden et al 2003). In the SEQ region, the species likely to be impacted most are
those that are already living at the limit of their latitudinal climate tolerances and those
living exclusively on mountain peaks and ridges.

Map 4.10 indicates the distribution of taxa at their geographical limits within biodiversity
corridors in SEQ and ranks the aggregations as high, medium and low. Apart from the
coastal Cooloola area in the north east, many of the species at their geographical limit occur
in higher altitudes along the scenic rim in the south and south west while the remainder are
found in elevated patches along the western and northern borders of the region.

Howden et al (2003) report that ‘a 3oC change in mean annual temperature’ (which is within
the range of CSIRO temperature projections for SEQ by 2070 (EPA 2008)) ’corresponds to a
shift in isotherms of approximately 300–400 km in latitude (in the temperate zone) or 500 m
in altitude’. In response, many species will retreat southward (latitudinally) or upward
(altitudinally) to maintain habitats within their range of temperature tolerance. While
latitudinal and altitudinal changes are emphasised in current literature, it should also be
noted that in SEQ, temperature and rainfall gradients are shown in many models to move
coastward in the coming century (see Appendix A). Consequentially, inland species
impacted by lower rainfalls and higher temperatures may also move towards the coast.

According to Kaustuv et al (2009), the constraints imposing range limits are poorly
understood due to the complex interactions between physical, biotic and historical factors.
Physical factors such as temperature, landform and soil types play significant roles.
However, additional constraints or advantages may also be derived from biotic parameters
such as gene flow, local adaptation, species interactions and dispersal. An understanding of
the factors that inhibit or enhance a species ability to maintain or extend their range in the
face of climate change is an essential element in identifying species at greatest risk from
climate change impacts.

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Map 4.10: Distribution of taxa at the limits of their geographical ranges in corridors

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009

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Pidwirny (2006) notes that species with their northern ranges limited by their ability to
compete may advance northwards if a competitor is forced to retreat southward as a result
of changing climate. Conversely, Parmesan (2005) points out that species with ranges
limited by minimum temperatures may also expand southwards if they can compete
favourably with extant species. This situation has natural resources management
implications with respect to the interface between the biodiversity corridors in SEQ and
those in the adjoining regions. Specifically, there is a need for contiguous management of
the biodiversity corridors to facilitate north-south and east-west migration of species.

Ecosystem and climate models suggest that, on a broad scale, the climatic zones suitable for
temperate plant species may be displaced by 200-1200 km polewards by the year 2100.
Evidence provided by paleontological studies suggests that most plant species migrate at
only 20-200km per century (Malanson and Cairns 1997). For many plant species, current
migration rates may be even slower due to the fragmentation of habitats and corridors by
human activities. Inevitably, the pace of climate change may be too rapid for some species
and local extinction events may come about unless there is direct human intervention on
their behalf.

The difficulty of addressing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity is summed up by


Low (2007) when he states that: “thermal tolerances and moisture requirements of most
species are unknown, and biologists infer climatic limits from observed distributions”. This
situation of inadequate knowledge highlights a major challenge that must be confronted by
SEQC when developing specific longitudinal studies aimed at informing investment strategies
in relation to conserving closed and open forest and woodland communities using
biodiversity corridors.

Distribution of many plant species may be restricted to a narrow band of temperatures and
other climate influences. For example, a study by Hughes et al (1996), found that of the 819
Eucalyptus species examined 53% have a distribution that spans less than 3°C of mean
annual temperature, 41% was less than 2°C and 25% have less than 1°C variation.
Additionally, 23% of species had ranges of mean annual rainfall of less than 20% variation.
A comment from the report that captures the significance of the results is worth reproducing
in full as follows.

‘ Unless current projections greatly overestimate future climate change in Australia, within
the next few decades many eucalypt species will have their entire present day population
exposed to temperatures and rainfall under which no individuals currently exist. While we
recognise that the actual climatic tolerances of many species are wider than the climatic
envelope they currently occupy, the data indicate that if even a moderate proportion of
present day boundaries actually reflect thermal or rainfall tolerances, substantial changes in
the tree flora of Australia may be expected.’

Hughes et al (1996) also found that for those species capable of extending beyond their
current limits of distribution, the ability to further colonise nearby areas may be restricted
due to the lack of other suitable biotic or abiotic conditions. Should suitable conditions exist;
the colonising species will need to establish itself in a site free from competitive organisms.

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Sites for colonisation become available due to environmental disturbances from a number of
factors including predation, fire, human activities and changing climates.

Biodiversity Corridors
Dunlop and Brown (2008) point out that migrating species will not only require suitable
areas to move to, but also require the means to get there. While species with rapid dispersal
mechanisms such as birds and plants with long range propagation strategies may be able to
readily move about, urban and agricultural development has left much of the SEQ landscape
in a fragmented state. Additional barriers to migration such as fences, railways, highways
and ribbon developments as well as rivers and mountains, will present a formidable task for
many plants and animals migrating across the region (Low 2007).

A key strategy to enable the movement of communities, individuals and genetic material
through the SEQ region is the development of a well established biodiversity corridors
network. This need has already been implemented in part through State and regional
initiatives that prioritise the retention of contiguous stretches of vegetation. Unfortunately,
the existing corridors are fragmented within themselves and disjointed with each other,
meaning that many of the journeys commenced could finish in ecological dead ends. As
such, considerable improvements may need to be made to strengthen and extend the
corridor network if they are to provide an effective adaptive strategy against biodiversity loss
due to global warming.

While parts of the existing SEQ corridor network can be classified as protected forest areas
through means such as National Parks or forest reserves, private tenure still accounts for
much of the area currently identified as corridors, potentially creating a significant barrier to
their continuing viability. Furthermore, corridors are still at risk from human-induced hazards
including continuing fragmentation, transport and road networks, inappropriate fire regimes
and the spread of pest species. Climate change will also increase existing stressors for
corridors which will further threaten the continuity of the network. These stressors may
occur through direct means such as droughts, heatwaves and extreme weather events or
through indirect means such as changes in phenology, altered fire regimes and the
development of conditions inducive to new pests.

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4.5 Managing Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity

The National Climate Change and Biodiversity Action Plan 2004 – 2007 recognises the
importance of reducing other stressors and provides seven key objectives aimed at
improving adaptive capacity of vulnerable biodiversity. These objectives fall into three broad
themes: gathering knowledge; minimising impacts on biodiversity; and incorporating
knowledge and harm minimisation strategies into natural resource and land use
management strategies (NRMMC 2004). A 2007 report however, revealed significant barriers
existed which hindered the full implementation of these actions (Hilbert et al 2007). In
particular it was found that there are considerable limitations in the ability to:

• measure and predict specific impacts (i.e. the net result of various impacts on
given species or in given locations, including rates of ecological change)
• determine the best approaches to managing biodiversity as climate changes
• provide effective information for managers and policy makers.

One of the key requirements to overcome these barriers is by developing a better


understanding of the dynamics between climate, species and ecosystems as well as the
threats and benefits that will come about as a result of global warming. In response to this
need, an eleven point list of Australian research priorities was compiled in 2005 by the
CSIRO (Hilbert et al 2007). These were as follows

1. Identify species (including key indicator species) that will be most vulnerable to
climate change.
2. Assess the potential for native species to become invasive as a result of climate
change.
3. Determine the climate change sensitivities and responses of representative
ecosystems, habitats and ecosystem processes, and of climate change impacts on
interactions between species.
4. Identify the properties or processes that confer resilience to climate change on
species and ecosystems, especially as these relate to practical management
solutions.
5. Identify the needs of hydrological modelling and bioregional classification in the
wake of climate change, including the enhanced delivery of predictive models.
6. Determine the effects of increasing carbon dioxide levels in combination with
changes in temperature, water balances, wind and ocean chemistry on species
(including invasive species), and on ecosystem structure and function.
7. Develop improved modelling and other assessment methods to investigate and
predict potential interactions between climate change (including increasing carbon
dioxide levels), disturbances (such as fire, invasive species, diseases, salinity,
grazing and habitat fragmentation), interactions between species (such as
competition, predation and habitat provision), and other factors affecting species
ranges and distributions, including the effects of population and ecosystem
dynamics.

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8. Investigate the socio-economic impacts of loss of biodiversity, including
improving our understanding of feedback mechanisms between biodiversity loss
and human health and wellbeing.
9. Examine the palaeo-record to understand how species, communities and
ecosystems have responded to past changes in climate to better understand and
predict future species responses to climate changes.
10. Identify the component responses and sensitivities of species and ecosystems
to natural between-year variation in climate, such as the El Niño Southern
Oscillation.
11. Identify the species, communities and ecosystems that would benefit most from
targeted action (not necessarily the most vulnerable or threatened).

An additional set of four management priorities to help implement and apply the outcomes
of research were also identified. These were:

1. Develop collaborative regional and catchment-based case studies covering broad


geographic and ecosystem ranges to integrate the implications of climate change
into conservation activities. This would be done through local natural resource
management planning using regional climate change projections, hydrological
studies, habitat modelling and land-use change scenarios.
2. Develop monitoring tools and methods, including priority listing of species
(including invasive species) or processes.
3. Perform social research on communication methods to identify the best ways to
communicate to the public and stakeholders the risks and projected impacts of
climate change.
4. Develop mechanisms for factoring climate change into conservation planning,
including the design of reserve systems, protected areas and off-reserve ecosystem
management to accommodate future habitat requirements for species under
climate change.

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5.0 Discussion and the Way Forward.

5.1. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity

As indicated in Section 3, multiple pressures on biodiversity are occurring independent of


climate change. Increased land use intensity and the associated destruction of habitats have
already reduced biodiversity and the effect is anticipated to continue in the future. A range
of projected impacts on biodiversity of terrestrial systems have been identified by the IPCC
in their Special Report on Biodiversity and Climate Change (IPCC 2002). Arguably, as
demonstrated by the work of Low (2007), for the Brisbane Region, these broad conclusions
drawn by the IPCC are translatable in general to the SEQ situation as delineated in Map 1.1
and specifically to the biodiversity corridors shown in Maps 1.2.

The following conclusions are drawn on the basis of assessment of the impacts of climate
change on biodiversity documented in the literature.

• Evidence suggests that the rate of species loss may increase, especially with species
with limited climatic ranges and/or restricted habitat requirements.
• Changes in phenology are expected to occur in many species.
• In general, habitats of many species will move latitudinally north and south and
altitudinally from their current location.
• Species within communities are likely to shift individualistically.
• Ecosystems dominated by long-living species will be slow to show evidence of
change and slow to recover from climate-related stresses.
• Closed and open forest and woodland ecosystems will be affected directly and via
interactions with other factors such as land-use change.
• Changes in frequency, intensity, extent and locations of disturbances will affect
whether and how existing ecosystems reorganise and the rate at which they are
replaced by new plant and animal assemblages.

This Scoping Report has focussed on woody vegetation in relation to biodiversity corridors
in SEQ and critical learnings can be gleaned at this point. The key findings are as follows.

• Climate change will have significant negative impacts on biodiversity corridors in the
SEQ.
• Impacts will occur through both through direct and indirect vectors.
• Direct impacts will be due to incompatibility of new climes and vegetation needs.
• Indirect impacts will be through fire and disease and pathogen exposure due to
climate stresses.

Species at the limits of their geographical range were discussed in Section 4.4. It follows
that, in the context of shifts in the distribution of resilient species, it could be important to
answer three questions with respect to the implications of climate change on the biodiversity
corridors in SEQ.

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1. Could this shift in response to changing climatic conditions be accommodated within
the existing biodiversity corridor framework for SEQ or will the framework need to be
expanded?
2. How will such shifts translate with respect to the corridors identified in adjoining
regions?
3. What are the implications for such a shift on the investment strategies of SEQC, the
Burnett Mary Regional Group for Natural Resources Management (BMRG), the
Condamine Alliance and the West Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority
(NSW).

Addressing these questions is fundamental to developing further actions by SEQC with


respect to research and investment in the use of biodiversity corridors to accommodate the
geographic migration of woody vegetation. In turn, this raises another question: Should
further actions best be done in the context of a strategic partnership with the BMRG to the
North, Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority to the South and the Condamine
Alliance to the West? Such collaboration should ensure that corridor areas are available to
accommodate the north-south, east-west and altitudinal movement of woody vegetation
group species in the light of projected changes in temperature and precipitation.

On the basis of the conclusions drawn and the questions raised above it is recommended
that a collaborative proactive SEQ Strategic Biodiversity Corridor Clim ate Change
Adaptation Action Plan developed and implemented.

5.2 Strategic Adaptation Activities

The following is an initial listing of possible adaptation activities that could be encompassed
within the SEQ Strategic Biodiversity Corridor Clim ate Change Adaptation Action
Plan .

• Identify and implement strategies aimed at increasing the resilience of the existing
reserve and biodiversity corridor system to changing climatic conditions including
extreme events. This would include the protection and ongoing identification of
biodiversity ‘hotspots’ and measures aimed at conserving genetic diversity within and
among native populations.
• Enhance the existing networks of reserves to ensure connecting corridors provide
dispersal and migration options especially into higher altitudes and identified climate
refugia. This would include creating buffer zones around existing and future reserves
and minimising habitat fragmentation. Specifically by limiting road building in
conservation areas and minimising the alienation of areas through the subdivision of
rural properties.
• Strategically identify locations for future investment in land for biodiversity
conservation purpose using integrated assessment methodologies incorporating
climate change scenario modelling, extreme event analysis and vegetation climate
tolerance information.

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• Cross-link biodiversity climate change adaptation management activities with local
and regional bush fire, disease and pathogens management plans. This would also
entail proactively managing weed and non-native vegetation infiltration in the
corridors and adjoining areas.
• Formulate and implement on-the-ground initiatives to maintain and enhance viability
of current endangered ecosystems in the SEQ and adjoining natural resources
management regions that are not currently encompassed within biodiversity
corridors or similar spatial entities (e.g. reserves or by caveats on private property),
including maintaining intact natural vegetation along environmental gradients.

Currently, there are a number of programs in Australia as outlined in the Australian Natural
Resources Atlas that are focussing on adaptation strategies. A large component of these
initiatives is capacity building with stakeholders, in particular landholders. Education about
key threats such as land clearing and grazing is balanced with incentives to protect and
enhance remaining vegetation (ANRA 2008). A suite of mechanisms are required to enhance
stakeholder participation by landholders, Local Government and community groups to
consolidate the regions ecosystem corridors. These may include the National Reserve
System, Land for Wildlife schemes, local and state covenants, rate relief and incentives for
management.

5.3 Mapping the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity

Current Status of Mapping


A significant amount of mapping and identification of critical areas for biodiversity has been
completed for the SEQ region. These include for example:
• the Comprehensive Regional Assessment (CRA 1999);
• Statewide Landcover and Trees Study (DNRW 2008);
• Biodiversity Planning Assessment;
• Regional NRM Plan;
• Regional Nature Conservation Strategy; and
• the SEQC Ecosystem Services Project (James 2009).

This Scoping Report adds to that body of knowledge by identifying the distribution of key
biodiversity values in wildlife corridors including endemism and geographical limits of taxa as
well as ecosystem integrity and species richness. Specifically:

 Map 1.2 shows the distribution of woody vegetation biodiversity corridors in South
East Queensland;
 Map 2.4 shows the distribution of areas having high levels of species richness within
corridors;
 Map 2.5 shows the distribution of centres of endemism within the regions corridors;
 Map 2.6 shows the distribution of areas having high biodiversity values within
corridors;
 Map 2.7 shows the distribution of refugia in biodiversity corridors.
 Map 2.9 shows the elevation of biodiversity corridors
 Map 4.10 shows the distribution of taxa at their geographical limits within corridors;
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While an examination of the distribution of the species was beyond the scope of this report,
it is evident that there may be a correlation between endemic species, those at their
geographical limits and areas of species richness. As these characteristics are also key
biodiversity values, a fuller understanding the options for the species involved will be a
critical part of any strategy aimed at reducing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity.
Programs such as the ‘Back on Track’ program which aim to identify vulnerable species and
prioritise research activities may assist in the protection and recovery of threatened species
through addressing the threatening processes. For many plant species and smaller animals
however, corridors may be the only conduit for movement across a heavily modified
landscape. Of serious concern are those species that have found refuge in the upper ranges
of mountain peaks and ridges from the severity of the existing regional climate. These
species may face extinction without some form of human intervention.

Further mapping examining the interaction between key biodiversity values and climate
change related issues is strongly recommended. These may include considerations such as:
altitudinal refugia and endemism; species at limits of distribution and potential temperature
changes; and effects of changes in rainfall patterns on the distribution of key species.

During the preparation of this Scoping Report , modelling approaches were explored that
might provide rapid assessments of potential changes to the distribution of species due to
climate change. The potential impact of climate change on the distribution of several species
of eucalypt was modelled using SimCLIM. Maps 4.8 and 4.9 demonstrate the application
of the rapid assessment to a broad scale classification such as rainforests. Species specific
climatic tolerances were also modelled and mapped under historic conditions and potential
climate change scenarios. Examples showing the potential shift in the distribution of
Eucalyptus pilularis (Blackbutt) and Eucalyptus cloeziana (Gympie messmate) within SEQ
under a drier climate change scenario (Hadley GCM, A1FI emissions scenario) are shown in
Map 5.1.

Map 5.1a indicates that should all other growth conditions be suitable, current rainfall
patterns are sufficient to sustain optimal growth for Eucalyptus cloeziana throughout the
entire SEQ region. Under the drier climate change scenario (Map 5.1b), the optimum
rainfall range has been reduced by 2100 to the extreme south east and the northern coastal
area. Coastal margins, the elevated regions of Scenic Rim and isolated patches near the
western boundary of the region provide marginal growth conditions while the remainder of
SEQ fails to provide adequate rainfall.

Eucalyptus pilularis has more restrictive rainfall requirements with an absolute range from
750 to 1850 mm per annum, and an optimum range of 1000 t00 1500 mm per annum.
Current rainfall distribution (Map 5.1c) in the region falls within the absolute range except
in a few isolated places where rainfall is above the maximum range. Optimum conditions
occur in the coastal areas, the Scenic Rim and isolated patches near the western boundary.
Under the drying scenario (Map 5.1d) optimal conditions are restricted by 2100 to a few
places in the Northern Sunshine Coast. Marginal rainfall occurs in the northern and southern
coastal areas while most of the region receives insufficient precipitation.

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It is stressed that the results are indicative only and are based on a single parameter. None
the less, the results dem onstrate how a rapid assessm ent can be m ade of the
broad distribution patterns under changing clim atic conditions for any species
w ith know n clim atic tolerances. A more refined GIS based assessment of species
distribution could also be conducted by employing a number of other key growth
determinants such as soil characteristics, temperature and altitude.

Map 5.1: Potential impact of reduction in rainfall on distribution of Eucalypts in SEQ

Eucalyptus cloezi
Map 5.1a: Baseline rainfall Map 5.1b: 2100 Rainfall (Hadley)

Annual Rainfall Optimal Range Absolute Range


(mm) 800 2000 550 2300

Eucalyptus pilularis
Map 5.1c: Baseline rainfall Map 5.1d: 2100 Rainfall (Hadley)

Annual Rainfall Optimal Range Absolute Range


(mm) 1000 1500 750 1850

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5.4 Steps Forward

In summary, this Scoping Report has raised a number of critical issues that need to be
resolved as SEQC looks towards protecting woody vegetation areas in light of climate
change stresses. This has entailed:

• the documentation of the biodiversity implications of changing temperature and


precipitation across SEQ; and
• assessing how projected changes in climatic conditions are translated with respect to
biodiversity conservation corridors.

The product of the project is viewed as having the potential to contribute to future
investment strategies by SEQC with respect to the establishment and maintenance of
biodiversity corridors to support the conservation of woody vegetation.

From available vegetation and ecosystem information, it is assumed that the corridors would
contain a suite of woody plant species whose distributions could change across the
landscape with hotter and drier conditions. Methodologically, this has seen the application of
SimCLIM modelling to produce potential climate change scenarios within the region and to
examine methods of identifying shifting climatic boundaries. This approach will enable a
better understanding of the way in which the impacts global warming may have on species
and ecosystems in SEQ.

Existing vulnerabilities in the biodiversity values of the SEQ region due to habitat destruction
will be exacerbated as a result of changing climatic conditions. Higher temperatures,
prolonged periods of intense heat, increased evaporation rates, and changes in the timing,
location, frequency and volume of precipitation will put additional pressures on already
stressed systems.

In 2006 the Stern Report, a major study undertaken by the Government of the United
Kingdom, indicated that it is more cost-effective to respond sooner rather than later to
climate change. The report also indicated that adaptation will be essential to reducing
vulnerability and in dealing with the impacts of an ever changing climate.

Through adaptation the extent of the impact of climate change can be minimised.
Adaptation at the regional level is particularly important as adaptation has the greatest
benefit when applied at the local level (QDNRW, 2007). Therefore it is important to
incorporate adaptive responses into planning for preserving and supporting biodiversity in
the SEQ region. Multifaceted management regimes with all stakeholders (Local Government,
State, Commonwealth and non-government organisations and communities of space and
interest) that take vulnerability to climate change into consideration must be implemented.
Adequate planning will need to include progressive adaptation measures that can be
incrementally applied over time as the impacts of climate change continue and increase.

62 | P a g e
In conclusion, even with the mitigation of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, climate
change is unavoidable and is going to occur for at least the next century. Thus, it is
necessary to determine appropriate mitigation measures and site specific adaptation
strategies and to ensure the longevity of woody vegetation ecosystems in the SEQ region.
This needs to be done spatially as the biodiversity corridors provide an essential framework
into which on ground activities can be focused. Steps in this direction will need to be
supported by:

• detailed climate scenario mapping;


• extreme event analysis;
• monitoring and management of threatening processes, especially weeds and
bushfires; and
• rigorous data on the tolerance and resilience of the plant species that constitute the
‘woody vegetation group (closed and open forest and woodland).

This mapping, together with accompanying analysis and documentation is an essential start
point for making better informed decisions on investment in biodiversity conservation
corridors for the SEQ and adjoining regions.

63 | P a g e
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67 | P a g e
Appendices
Appendix A:
Climate Scenarios for South East Queensland Catchments Region
Graham Ashford, Greg Laves and Peter Waterman
University of the Sunshine Coast

Climate change and climate variability affect individual organisms, populations, species
distribution, and ecosystem composition. Impacts may be direct such as through changes in
temperatures and precipitation patterns or indirect through changes in intensity and
frequency of disturbances. The degree of impact will be a function of the cumulative effect
of the intensity of human land and water use and the climate variation. Processes such as
habitat loss, modification, fragmentation as well as the introduction and spread of non-
native species, greatly affect how an organism is able to respond to climate modification
(IPCC 2002).

The IPCC’s Special Report on Biodiversity and Climate Change (2002) indicates that as
global temperatures increase habitats of many species will migrate pole wards from their
current location. Individual species will be affected by climate change differently with
potential migration occurring at different rates.

Disturbances can increase the rate of species loss and create opportunities for the
establishment of new species. The risk of extinction will increase for species already
vulnerable, especially for those with limited climatic range, restricted habitat requirements,
and/or small populations. The species less at risk are those with extensive, non-patchy
ranges, long range dispersal mechanisms and large populations.

Projections of Average Temperature Change


SimCLIM climate change software was employed to generate potential climatic conditions
using the HADGEM model with A1B emissions. Results indicate that the SEQ region will
experience a general warming by 2050 of 1.5°C; however localised variables such as
distance from the coast and altitude will also influence future temperatures. Temperature
and rainfall projections were also created for individual sites throughout the region which
are discussed in Appendix B.

Figure A1 illustrates the projected changes in average seasonal temperatures for SEQ
compared with historic data from the baseline period of 1961 to 1990. Baseline
temperatures are shown in the top row, projections for 2050 in the middle and change in
degrees from the baseline period in the bottom row. Average seasonal temperature change
is approximately 1.5°C varying between 1.4°C during autumn and 1.7°C during winter.
Rates of warming also vary spatially with inland locations experiencing higher temperature
changes than coastal areas. The projected temperature changes are summarized in Table
A1.

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Table A1 Seasonal Average Temperature Change from Baseline in SEQ
Seasonal Average Temperature
(HADGEM model A1B emissions)
Dec, Jan, Feb Mar, Apr, May Jun, Jul, Aug Sep, Oct, Nov
1961-1990 23.7 19.3 12.6 19.0
2050 25.2 20.7 14.3 20.6
Change in °C 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6

Map A1: Mean Temperatures by Season for SEQ – Baseline and 2050
Baseline: 1961-1990 mean temperatures o C (BOM)

Dec, Jan, Feb Mar, Apr, May Jun, Jul, Aug Sept, Oct, Nov

Projected mean temperature o C : HADGEM A1B Year: 2050

Dec, Jan, Feb Mar, Apr, May Jun, Jul, Aug Sept, Oct, Nov

Change from baseline o C: HADGEM A1B Year: 2050

Dec, Jan, Feb Mar, Apr, May Jun, Jul, Aug Sept, Oct, Nov
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Maximum Average Temperatures for Summer
Average maximum temperature is defined as the average of the highest ten percent of
values for any given period, in this case the summer months of December, January and
February. Projections for mean summer maximums for SEQ are shown in Map A2. Under
the A1B emissions scenario, average maximum temperatures in the region will rise by
approximately 2°C by 2050 and 4°C by 2100. The fact that temperature increases will
continue at the same rate from 2050 to 2100 even though the modelled emissions are
declining through that period, illustrates the longevity of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere and the considerable amount of time it takes for the system to reach a new
state of equilibrium.

The biodiversity impacts due to high temperature periods predominantly relate to massive
habitat loss, damage and change due to bushfire and temperature stress for vegetation.
Most significantly, small endemic patches of vulnerable or endangered woody vegetation
may be at higher risk due to extreme heat stress days. Return periods for extreme heat
days are also projected to increase in both range and frequency.

Map A2 Maximum Average Summer Temperature for SEQ – Dec, Jan, Feb

Baseline HadCM3 A1B HadCM3 A1B


Year: 2050 Year: 2100

Projected Precipitation Change


Map A3 illustrates the projected patterns of change in seasonal precipitation using four
different Global Circulation Model (GCM) patterns. All models use the same A1B emission
scenario. This demonstrates the differences in projections among global climate models.
Such differences are especially apparent for precipitation which is modelled with less
confidence than temperature.

The four models generally project an overall drying trend although the CSIRO Mk2 projects
an increase in precipitation in autumn, while the MPIECH-5 model projects a wetter winter
and spring. The threats to woody vegetation due to precipitation change are related to an
individual species ability to tolerate drought, take up water when available, and pest
resistance during stress periods. Longer periods of dry are also more apt to have higher
bush fire risk.
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Map A3: Projections of precipitation in 2050 for SEQ (A1B emissions)
Baseline HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-A

SUMMER

Baseline HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-A

AUTUMN

Baseline HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-A

WINTER

Baseline HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-A

SPRING

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Appendix B:
Site Specific Climate Projections for the South East Queensland Region
Theresa Ashford, Greg Laves and Peter Waterman
University of the Sunshine Coast

Table B1: Climate Scenario Case Study Sites


Town Latitude Longitude Elevation
1 Nanango
-26.68 151.99 375m
Upper Brisbane Catchment
2 Somerset Dam
-27.11 152.56 113m
Stanley Catchment
3 Tewantin Post Office
-26.39 153.04 8m
Noosa Catchment
4 Toowoomba-City
-27.5425 151.9134 640 m
Lockyer Catchment
5 Ipswich
-27.5022 152.5917 393m
Bremer Catchment
6 Brisbane
-27.4808 153.0389 8m
Lower Brisbane Catchment
7 Gold Coast
Nerang Catchment -27.9389 153.4283 3m
(Site used: Southport Ridgeway Ave.)

The following sets of data relate to specific sites in the SEQ catchments area. Bureau of
Meteorology (BOM) data was modelled with SimCLIM to examine historic trends and to
enable climate change projections to be generated for a localised level. Sites for case
studies were selected on the quality and consistency of BOM data, the proximity to
vegetative corridors and to provide a spatial overview of the region. Baseline data comprises
of historical BOM data between the years 1961 and 1990. This is in accordance with World
Meteorological Organisation’s recommendations.

While precipitation data is available from a wide range of spatially distributed BOM sites,
other climatic variables such as temperature, wind, evaporation and humidity are only
available in limited locations. As such, the sites that have been chosen for this investigation
are a best fit between available data and the emphasis on a broad geographical treatment in
the SEQ.

This data set gives overall projected changes to climate but further investigation related to
extreme events such as the increase in frequency of extreme temperatures, number of days
above 35°C, extreme rainfall events and dry periods will be critical to understanding future
climate stress on biodiversity in general and vegetation in particular.

72 | P a g e
Summary of climate changes for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100 (HadCM3)

Figure B1: Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100

Figure B2: Changes in Mean Annual Temperature for selected SEQ sites 1990 – 2100

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Nanango

Nanango is located approximately 45 kilometres north of Blackbutt and to the west of a


corridor that follows remnant areas of state forest in the Upper Brisbane Catchment area.
Much of the immediate environs around Nanango have been cleared for agricultural and
urban uses.

The monthly climate information for the 1961 to 1990 period show a temperate climate with
mean monthly maximum temperatures ranging from 20° to 30°C and mean monthly
minimums from 4° to 18° C. The greatest quantity of rainfall occurs in summer with a
monthly mean of 110 mm for January and December. The lowest mean monthly rainfall
occurs in June with 30 mm.

The HAD3CM model projections indicate decreases in annual rainfall in the Nanango area
(Table B2). Precipitation projections for 2030 show a decrease of between 16mm and
32mm, a decrease of between 30mm and 62mm by 2050 while 2100 has a projected
decrease of between 54mm and 122mm.

The mean maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase over the same
time (see (Table B3) and (Table B4)). Mean maximum temperatures are projected to
increase by 5°C by 2100 to a mean annual maximum to 30°C.

Table B2: Nanango Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 +0.7 +1.0 +1.3
2050 +1.2 +1.9 +2.6
2100 +2.2 +3.4 +5.0

Table B3: Nanango Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 +0.6 +0.8 +1.1
2050 +1.1 +1.6 +2.2
2100 +1.9 +2.9 +4.3

Table B4: Nanango Annual Rainfall Change (mm)


Year Low Mid High
2030 -16 -24 -33
2050 -30 -45 -62
2100 -54 -84 -122

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Figure B3: Nanango Climate Data Graphs
Precipitation
Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Maximum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Minimum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

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Somerset Dam

Somerset Dam is located in the middle of south-east Queensland at the intersection of two
vegetation corridors at an elevation of 113 metres in the Stanley Catchment area. The town
of Somerset Dam is found south of the Somerset Dam and North of Wivenhoe Dam in an
area surrounded by State forests. Satellite imagery shows large areas of intact forest
reserves on low lying mountain topography. There are also substantial areas that are
cleared around the eastern and northern shores of Somerset Dam.

The baseline data for 1961-1990 for Somerset precipitation indicates a wet summer season
with mean monthly rainfall in January and December of approximately 150mm and a drier
winter with mean monthly rainfall lows of 40mm. SimCLIM projections for this site show
significant drying with reductions of mean annual rainfall between 39mm and 77mm in
2030, 72mm to 148mm by 2050 and reductions of between 128mm and 290mm by 2100.

Monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for Somerset were only available from
1937 to 1970 from which the baseline values were derived. For modelling in SimCLIM, an
annual mean maximum temperature of 26.5° C and an annual mean minimum temperature
of 14.8°C were used as the baseline.

Table B5: Somerset Dam Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.7 1.0 1.3
2050 1.2 1.8 2.5
2100 2.1 3.3 4.8

Table B6: Somerset Dam Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.6 0.9 1.2
2050 1.1 1.7 2.3
2100 2.0 3.1 4.5

Table B7: Somerset Dam Projected Annual Precipitation Change mm


Year Low Mid High
2030 -39 -57 -77
2050 -72 -107 -148
2100 -128 -199 -290

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Figure B4: Somerset Dam Climate Data Graphs
Precipitation
Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Maximum Temperature


Actual 1937- 1970 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Minimum Temperature


Actual 1937- 1970 mean monthly Projected mean annual

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Tewantin

Tewantin is located within the


Noosa Catchment area. To the
north there is a significant areas of
state forest which has very high
endemism, high distribution of
taxa at their northern limits, high
species richness, and varying
degrees of threatened species.

The monthly climate information


for the 1961 to 1990 period
indicate a temperate climate with
mean monthly maximum
temperatures ranging from 21°C
to 29°C and mean monthly
minimums from 10°C to 22° C.
The greatest quantity of rainfall
occurs in summer with a monthly
mean of 230 mm for January. The
lowest mean monthly rainfall
occurs in September with 50 mm.

The HAD3CM model projects


decreases in annual rainfall for the
area (Table B8). Precipitation projections for 2030 show a decrease of between 30 mm and
60 mm, a decrease of between 55 mm and 114 mm by 2050 while 2100 has a projected
decrease of between 90 mm and 223 mm.

The mean maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase over the same
time (Table B9 and B10) Mean maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 4.3°C
by 2100.

Table B8: Tewantin Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change C°


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.6 0.9 1.2
2050 1.1 1.6 2.2
2100 1.9 3.0 4.3

Table B9: Tewantin Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change C°


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.5 0.8 1.0
2050 1.0 1.4 2.0
2100 1.7 2.7 3.9

Table B10: Tewantin Projected Annual Precipitation Change mm


Year Low Mid High
2030 -30 -44 -59
2050 -55 -82 -114
2100 -98 -153 -223

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Figure B5: Tewantin Climate Data Graphs
Precipitation
Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Maximum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Minimum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Toowoomba

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Toowoomba

Toowoomba is one of SEQ largest urban areas


with a population of 95 265 (ABS 2007) and is
found on the edge of the Lockyer Catchment.
Toowoomba is located adjacent to a corridor
and has a large area of state forest along its
eastern border. This site has the highest
elevation in the scenario study group at 640
meters above sea level and is approximately
140 kilometres from the coast.

The monthly climate information for the 1961


to 1990 period indicate a temperate climate
with mean monthly maximum temperatures
ranging from 16° C to 27°C and mean monthly
minimums from 5°C to 17° C. The greatest
quantity of rainfall occurs in summer with a
monthly mean of 135 mm for January. The
lowest mean monthly rainfall occurs in
September with 40 mm.

The HAD3CM model projects decreases in


annual rainfall for the area (Table B11).
Precipitation projections for 2030 show a
decrease of between 16 and 31 mm, a
decrease of between 29 and 60 mm by 2050
while 2100 has a projected decrease of
between 52 and 117 mm.

The mean maximum and minimum


temperature are projected to increase over the
same time (see Table B12 and B13).
Toowoomba’s projected mean maximum
temperature increase of 5.1°C by 2100 was the
largest increase of all the centres examined.

Table B11: Toowoomba Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.7 1.0 1.4
2050 1.3 1.9 2.6
2100 2.3 3.5 5.1

Table B12: Toowoomba Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.6 0.9 1.2
2050 1.1 1.6 2.2
2100 1.9 3.0 4.3

Table B13 Toowoomba Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm


Year Low Mid High
2030 -16 -23 -31
2050 -29 -43 -60
2100 -52 -81 -117
80 | P a g e
Figure B6: Toowoomba Climate Data Graphs
Precipitation
Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Maximum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Minimum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

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Ipswich

The Ipswich BOM site is located one hour west


of Brisbane along the Bremer River system at an
elevation of 393 metres. Ipswich has a
population of 155 000 and is primarily bordered
by cleared and urbanised land within the Bremer
Catchment area. Much of Ipswich river frontage
has been developed. To the north and south of
Ipswich are larger pockets of regional forest.

Meteorological data for Ipswich for the 1961-


1990 time period show monthly precipitation
rates which are similar with most of the region.
Ipswich experienced a summer rainfall mean of
130 mm per month and low rainfall during the
winter months and a low of 35mm recorded for
September. Temperatures range from a mean
summer temperatures of 32°C to winter means
of 7.5°C.

Hadley model projections indicate a decrease in


annual rainfall with of between 17 mm to 34
mm by 2030, 32 mm to 66 mm by 2050 and 57
mm to 129 mm per year by 2100.

Tables B15 and B16 illustrate the increasing


annual mean minimum and maximum
temperatures. It is projected this area will
experience between a 2°C to 4°C increase in
temperature by 2100.

Table B14: Ipswich Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.6 0.9 1.3
2050 1.2 1.7 2.4
2100 2.1 3.2 4.7

Table B15: Ipswich Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.5 0.8 1.1
2050 1.0 1.5 2.1
2100 1.8 2.8 4.0

Table B16: Ipswich Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm


Year Low Mid High
2030 -17 -25 -34
2050 -32 -48 -66
2100 -57 -89 -129

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Figure B7: Ipswich Climate Data Graphs
Precipitation
Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Maximum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Minimum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Brisbane

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Brisbane

Brisbane has a population of 1 857 594, making it the third most populous city in Australia.
Situated on the Brisbane River in the Lower Brisbane Catchment area, a study regarding
climate change impacts on biodiversity in the area was undertaken by Tim Low in 2007.

Brisbane has the highest annual rainfall of the sites selected for this study and averaged
1192 mm per year over the baseline period. Under the Hadley model scenario Brisbane may
experience the greatest decrease in annual precipitation. Rainfall may be between 34 mm
to 67mm less in 2030, 62mm to 127mm less in 2050, and 110 mm to 250 mm less in 2100.

Table B17: Brisbane Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.6 0.9 1.2
2050 1.1 1.6 2.3
2100 2.0 3.0 4.4

Table B18: Brisbane Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.5 0.8 1.0
2050 1.0 1.4 2.0
2100 1.7 2.6 3.8

Table B19: Brisbane Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm


Year Low Mid High
2030 -33 -49 -67
2050 -62 -92 -127
2100 -110 -171 -250

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Figure B8: Brisbane Climate Data Graphs
Precipitation
Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Maximum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Minimum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

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Gold Coast

The Gold Coast is located in the


Nerang Catchment and consists of a
highly urbanised strip of development
along the coast from the northern end
of South Stradbroke Island to the New
South Wales border. The Southport
Ridgeway Avenue station was used as
the source for Gold Coast climate
data.

Most of this development is near sea


level and the upper reaches of the
catchment area are relatively
undeveloped. The Gold Coast borders
two riparian corridors and two larger
corridor buffers.

The monthly climate information for


the 1961 to 1990 period indicates a
temperate climate with mean monthly
maximum temperatures ranging from
21° C to 29°C and mean monthly
minimums from 9°C to 21° C. The greatest quantity of rainfall occurs in summer with a
monthly mean of 200 mm for January. The lowest mean monthly rainfall occurs in
September with 45 mm.

The HAD3CM model has projected significant decreases in rainfall across the region and The
Gold Coast scenario shows a progressively decreasing amount of annual (Table B20).
Precipitation projections for 2030 show a decrease of between 25 and 50 mm, a decrease of
between 47 and 96 mm by 2050 while 2100 has a projected decrease of between 83 and
188 mm.

Table B20: Gold Coast Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.6 0.8 1.1
2050 1.0 1.6 2.1
2100 1.9 2.9 4.2

Table B21: Gold Coast Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change °C


Year Low Mid High
2030 0.5 0.7 1.0
2050 0.9 1.4 1.9
2100 1.6 2.5 3.7

Table B22: Gold Coast Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm


Year Low Mid High
2030 -25. -37 -50
2050 -47 -70 -96
2100 -83 -130 -188

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Figure B9: Gold Coast Climate Data Graphs
Precipitation
Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Maximum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

Mean Minimum Temperature


Actual 1961 – 1990 mean monthly Projected mean annual

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Appendix C
Maps and Definitions

Bioregional Corridors (Map 1.3)

Bioregional Corridors were identified through an automated process with expert panel input.
Areas identified qualify either because they are existing vegetated corridors important for
contiguity including regrowth, or cleared areas that could serve this purpose if revegetated.
Examples of corridors include riparian habitats, terrestrial corridors and stepping stones.

Species Richness (Map 2.4)

The number of species within a region, or in this case within a ‘remnant patch’. Centers of
high species richness can be identified using GIS analysis, based on data collected within the
region. (e.g. Faunawatch and WildNet)

Core Habitat for Priority Taxa (Map 2.5)

Identifies Essential and General Habitat for Endangered, Vulnerable and Rare Taxa (EVR)
and other Priority Taxa. Information sources include expert and local knowledge, technical
reports and papers, and modeled maps of Essential and General Habitat.

Priority Taxa, other than EVR’s, are identified for each bioregion on the basis of one or more
special values and the written opinion of experts. These values may include taxa at risk or of
management concern, taxa of scientific interest as relictual (ancient or primitive), endemic
taxa or locally significant populations (such as flying fox camps), highly specialized taxa
whose habitat requirements are complex and distributions are not well correlated with any
particular Regional Ecosystem, taxa important for maintaining genetic diversity, taxa critical
for management or monitoring of biodiversity, or economic and culturally important taxa
(e.g. koala, platypus).

Centres of Endemism (Map 2.6)

Endemic species are defined as those taxa which have at least 75% of their geographic range
within one bioregion or which have a total range of 100,000 sq.km or less. Endemic taxa can
be identified through the analysis of flora and fauna records stored in WildNet using GIS.

Biodiversity Significance (Map 2.7)

The ranked significance of an area according to specified biodiversity values to account for
ecological concepts such as rarity, diversity, fragmentation, habitat condition, resilience,
threats, and ecosystem processes. The Biodiversity Planning Assessments identify three
levels of Biodiversity Significance – State, Regional and Local, based on the number of data
queries that simultaneously integrate an array of information for the bioregion.

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Wildlife Refugia (Map 2.8)

Wildlife Refugia encompass:


- habitats that support taxa that are uncommon or don not occur elsewhere
- habitats that enable taxa to survive during extreme events such as drought, fire and in
the longer term, climate change
- remnants that have and will survive clearing and fragmentation.
- habitats used by migratory taxa for short periods of time.

The identification of wildlife refugia will sometimes rely upon studies of specific habitats
such as mound springs and caves, as well as expert knowledge.

Corridor Elevation (Map 2.9)

Corridor triggered vegetation as identified by the Biodiversity Planning Assessment V3.5 was
intersected with elevation from the Digital Elevation Model (25 m)
.

Core Habitat for EVR (Map 4.7)

Classifies areas according to their significance based on the presence of Endangered,


Vulnerable and/or Rare (EVR) taxa. EVR taxa are those scheduled under the Nature
Conservation Act 1992 and/or the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation
Act 1999.

Areas with concentrations of taxa at the limits of their geographical ranges (Map 4.10)

Limits of range include most northerly or southerly record in the bioregion and most easterly
or westerly record.

With all mapping, data gaps do exist and some of these issues have been addressed
through expert review.

Further information on criteria used can be sourced from the Biodiversity Assessment
and Mapping Methodology, Environmental Protection Agency, Biodiversity Planning
Unit, Biodiversity Branch Version 2.1 July 2002.

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Appendix D
Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Plant and Animal Species in SEQ

Table D.1: Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Plant Species in SEQ


Family Species name NCA EPBC
Apiaceae Lilaeopsis brisbanica E
Apocynaceae Ochrosia moorei E E
Aristolochiaceae Pararistolochia praevenosa R
Asteraceae Rhaponticum australe V
Asteraceae Picris conyzoides R
Asteraceae Picris evae V V
Asteraceae Ozothamnus vagans V V
Burmanniaceae Thismia rodwayi R
Caesalpiniaceae Chamaecrista maritima LC
Corynocarpaceae Corynocarpus rupestris subsp. arborescens R
Cupressaceae Callitris baileyi R
Davidsoniaceae Davidsonia johnsonii E
Fabaceae Swainsona fraseri LC
Laxmanniaceae Romnalda strobilacea V V
Meliaceae Owenia cepiodora V V
Mimosaceae Acacia attenuata V V
Mimosaceae Acacia baueri subsp. baueri V
Mimosaceae Acacia saxicola E
Molluginaceae Macarthuria complanata R
Myrtaceae Eucalyptus conglomerata E E
Myrtaceae Gossia gonoclada E E
Myrtaceae Melaleuca groveana R
Myrtaceae Melaleuca irbyana R
Myrtaceae Syzygium moorei V V
Proteaceae Triunia robusta E E
Rhamnaceae Discaria pubescens R
Rubiaceae Durringtonia paludosa R
Rutaceae Zieria furfuracea subsp. gymnocarpa E
Rutaceae Phebalium distans LC
Rutaceae Boronia keysii V V
Rutaceae Boronia safrolifera LC
Rutaceae Zieria sp. (Mooloolaba G.Leiper AQ636552) LC
Sapindaceae Cupaniopsis shirleyana V V
Sapindaceae Cupaniopsis newmanii R
Scrophulariaceae Euphrasia bella E V
Sterculiaceae Seringia sp (Chermside S.T.Blake 23068 ) LC
Sterculiaceae Brachychiton sp. (Ormeau L.H.Bird AQ435851) LC
Tiliaceae Corchorus cunninghamii E E
Aponogetonaceae Aponogeton elongatus subsp. elongatus R
Blandfordiaceae Blandfordia grandiflora R
Cyperaceae Caustis blakei subsp. macrantha V
Cyperaceae Lepidosperma quadrangulatum LC
Hydrocharitaceae Hydrocharis dubia V V
Orchidaceae Phaius australis tancarvilleae E E
Orchidaceae Sarcochilus fitzgeraldii E V
Orchidaceae Sarcochilus hartmannii V V
Orchidaceae Sarcochilus weinthalii E V

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Table D.2: Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Animal (Terrestrial) Species in SEQ

Family Species name Common name NC EPBC


A
Accipitridae Erythrotriorchis radiatus red goshawk E V
Anatidae Botaurus poiciloptilus Australasian bittern LC
Atrichornithidae Atrichornis rufescens rufous scrub-bird V
Burhinidae Esacus neglectus beach stone-curlew V
Cacatuidae Calyptorhynchus lathami lathami glossy black-cockatoo V
Meliphagidae Grantiella picta painted honeyeater R
Pardalotidae Dasyornis brachypterus eastern bristlebird E E
Passeridae Stagonopleura guttata diamond firetail LC
Pomatostomida Pomatostomus temporalis grey-crowned babbler LC
e temporalis (eastern)
Psittacidae Cyclopsitta diophthalma coxeni Coxen's fig-parrot E E
Psittacidae Pezoporus wallicus wallicus ground parrot V
Scolopacidae Numenius madagascariensis eastern curlew R
Strigidae Ninox strenua powerful owl V
Turnicidae Turnix melanogaster black-breasted button-quail V V
Myobatrachidae Crinia tinnula wallum froglet V
Lycaenidae Acrodipsas illidgei Illidge's ant-blue V
Lycaenidae Jalmenus evagoras eubulus imperial hairstreak V
Papilionidae Ornithoptera richmondia Richmond birdwing V
Dasyuridae Dasyurus maculatus maculatus spotted-tailed quoll ( V E
Dasyuridae Dasyurus hallucatus northern quoll LC E
Macropodidae Petrogale penicillata brush-tailed rock-wallaby V V
Muridae Xeromys myoides false water-rat V V
Petauridae Petaurus australis australis yellow-bellied glider LC
Pteropodidae Pteropus poliocephalus grey-headed flying-fox LC V
Vespertilionidae Kerivoula papuensis golden-tipped bat R
Vespertilionidae Scoteanax rueppellii greater broad-nosed bat LC
Elapidae Hoplocephalus stephensii Stephens' banded snake R
Elapidae Hemiaspis damelii grey snake E
Elapidae Hoplocephalus bitorquatus pale-headed snake LC
Pygopodidae Delma inornata LC
Pygopodidae Delma torquata collared delma V V
Pygopodidae Delma plebeia common delma LC
Scincidae Coeranoscincus reticulatus three-toed snake-tooth skink R V
Scincidae Eroticoscincus graciloides R

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