Announcements

 Tests returned at the end of class. We

will discuss them next class period.
 Theory and Hypotheses.
◦ Due March 24
 Assignment #2 (Chptr. 7 – Sampling).
◦ Due March 31
 Class cancelled on March 22.
◦ Tuesday after spring break
Population v. Sample: Key Terms
 Population:
◦ any well-defined set of units of analysis about
which we wish to generalize our theories.
◦ Can be people, countries, corporations,
continents, etc.

 Population Parameter:
◦ Characteristics about a population that can
be quantified as a number.
◦ (e.g. proportion, mean/average, etc.)
Population v. Sample: Key Terms
 Sample
◦ Any subset of units collected in some manner
from the population; the data we use to test
our theories.
 Estimator
◦ Numerically estimates the value of a
population characteristic, or population
parameter.
 Sample Statistic
◦ An estimator of a population parameter
derived from a population sample.
Types of Samples
 Probability sample – each element of
the population has a known probability
of being included in the sample

 Nonprobability sample - each

element of the population has an
unknown probability of being included
in the sample
Types of Nonprobability Samples
 Convenience sample – elements are
included because they are convenient
or easy for the researcher to select
◦ Researcher may haphazardly select
individuals

 Problem – may not be representative

of the population to which we want to
generalize
Types of Nonprobability Samples
 Quota samples – elements are
chosen based on selected
characteristics and the representation
of these characteristics in the
population
◦ Ensures accurate representation of
selected characteristics
◦ Elements with selected characteristics
chosen in convenience fashion
Problems with Non-Probability
Sampling: Examples
 Remember the Dewey v. Truman
election? What happened?

 Polls conducted during the Landen-

Roosevelt and Dewey-Truman
elections were inaccurate.
◦ Improper use of convenience samples
◦ Improper use of quota samples
Problems with Non-Probability
Sampling: Examples
 Before 1936
◦ Upper class and Working Class – similar
partisan distribution
Problems with Non-Probability
Sampling: Examples
 Before 1936
◦ Upper class and Working Class – similar
partisan distribution
 1936 and beyond
◦ Upper class disproportionately
Republican
◦ Working class disproportionately
Democrat
1948 – quota sampling incorrectly predicts Dewey to defeat Truman
Types of Probability Samples
 Simple random sample – each
element of the population has an
equal chance of being selected

 Systematic sample – elements

selected from a list at predetermined
intervals
Types of Probability Samples
 Stratified sample – elements in
population are grouped into strata,
and each strata is randomly sampled
Types of Probability Samples
 Cluster sample – elements are
grouped into “clusters,” and sampling
proceeds in two stages:
 A random sample of clusters is chosen
 Elements within selected clusters are then
randomly selected and aggregated to form final
sample
 This is the sampling method used in many
national surveys (e.g. clusters=metropolitan
areas, zip codes, area codes)
Sampling and Statistical Inference:
Key Terms
 Frequency distributions
 Mean and Standard deviation
 Proportions
 Sampling distribution
 Standard error
 Sampling error
 Confidence interval
Frequency Distributions
 For any variable X, a tabular or
graphical display of the number of
observations per value/category of
that variable
Mean and Standard Deviation
 For any collection of observations
measured at the interval or ratio level:

◦ Mean = the simple average/expected

value

◦ Standard deviation = the “average”

distance of each observation from the
mean (intuitive definition)
Mean and Standard Deviation
 Weekly Income Mean Deviation
100 100 – 200 =100
150 150 – 200 = -50
200 200 – 200 = 0
300 300 – 200 =100
250 250 – 200 = 50

Mean = 200 Standard Deviation = 79.06

Proportion
 The ratio of the number of
observations taking a specific value, to
the total number of observations

 P=#/N

 Example: 4/10=.40
 Sampling Distribution
(of sample proportions)

Population

Draw Random Sample of Size N

Calculate sample proportion

Repeat until all possible random samples of size N are exhausted

The resulting collecting of sample proportions is the sampling

distribution of sample proportions
 Sampling Distribution
(of Sample Proportions)
 Def: A frequency
distribution of all
possible sample proportions for a
given sample size (N)
◦ The mean of the sampling
distribution will be equal to the
population proportion.
 Sampling Distribution
(of Sample Proportions)
 The shape of the sampling distribution
will be a normal distribution
Example of a Sampling Distribution
Example of a Sampling Distribution
Standard Error
 How the sample proportions vary from
sample to sample (i.e. within the
sampling distribution) is expressed
statistically by the value of the
standard deviation of the sampling
distribution (the standard error).
Standard Error, cont.

 The standard error for a sample

proportion is equal to the square
root of: P(1-P) / N
◦ (where P=population proportion)
The Standard Error and the Margin
of Error in Surveys
 The standard error is a measure of
sampling variability for a sample
statistic

 If we know the standard error, we can

calculate a “margin of error” for our
sample proportion
Calculating the Margin of Error
 First, we must choose a level of
certainty (confidence level); usually
95%
 The margin of error (with a 95%
confidence level) is equal to ±1.96*SE
Example: Presidential Approval
 Newsweek Poll conducted by
Princeton Survey Research
Associates International. Sept. 29-30,
2005. N=1,004 adults nationwide.
MoE ± 3..
 "Do you approve or disapprove of
the way George W. Bush is
handling his job as president?“
(40% approve)
Calculating the margin of error for a
40% approval rating
 The standard error for a sample proportion
is equal to the square root of: P(1-P) / N

 The margin of error (with a 95% confidence

level) is equal to ±1.96*SE

 .40*.60/1004=.000239

 √.000239 = .01546

 1.96*.01546=.03 (and thus, MOE = +/- .03)

Sample Size and Sampling Error
Polling Accuracy
 Presidential Election 2008
◦ Actual outcome: Obama 52.9%, McCain 45.7%
◦ Pollster.com: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-
us-pres-ge-mvo.php

 Are today’s samples truly representative?

◦ Cell phone-only households and sampling bias
 http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phone_only_househol
ds_by.php
 http://pewresearch.org/pubs/964/cell-phones-and-the-
2008-vote-an-update
 http://www.pollster.com/blogs/plotting_pollster_accuracy.
php