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Suggested Solution(SECTION A)
Qbhf!2!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
The required probability
3 1 1
= (1 − ) × =
4 3 12
(b)
Let the probability that a student is male from those pass the exam be x.
3
x
4 9
=
3 3 1
x + (1 − )(1 − ) 14
4 4 3
3 3 1
14( x) = 9( x + )
4 4 6
2
x=
5
(c)
The required probability
3 1
(1 − )( )
= 4 3
3 2 3 1
(1 − ) + (1 − )( )
4 5 4 3
5
=
32
Qbhf!3!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
P( A ∩ B' )
(a) P( A | B' ) =
P( B' )
8 P( A ∩ B' )
=
9 7
1−
10
4
P( A ∩ B' ) =
15
P ( B ∩ A' )
P ( B | A' ) =
P ( A' )
9 P ( A'∩ B )
=
10 1− a
9
P ( A'∩ B ) = (1 − a )
10
(b) P ( A'∪ B ) + P ( A ∩ B ' ) = 1
Put P ( A'∪ B ) = P ( A' ) + P ( B ) − P ( A'∩ B )
7 9 4
(1 − a ) + − (1 − a ) + =1
10 10 15
1 1
(1 − a ) =
10 30
2
a=
3
9 2 3 7
(c) Since P ( A'∩ B ) = ( )(1 − ) = ≠ = P ( B ) and
10 3 10 10
4 2
P( A ∩ B' ) = ≠ = P ( A) , A and B are not mutually exclusive.
15 3
Qbhf!4!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
3 1− p True
Blue
4 False
p
900 1 3
= p + (1 − p )
1500 4 4
p = 0.3
The required probability
2 3
1 3 1
C ( 0.3)
3
2 ( (1 − 0.3)) + ( 0.3)
= 4 4 4 = 0.0430
3
900
1500
11
(or )
256
Qbhf!5!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
Qbhf!6!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
1 6 5 3 5
× + × × 2!
2 11 10 8 7
(a)
333
=
616
(b)
P(Faye Faye and Mow Mow in House A)
5 3 1
= × =
10 9 6
P(Faye Faye and Mow Mow in House B)
5 6 1
= × =
10 9 3
The required Probability
11 2 1 1 2 1
× × + × ×
2 6 8 7 3 11 10 1
= =
333 90
616
Qbhf!7!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
3! 6! 4!
× − 2!
2! 3!2! 3!
1680 39
(c) Probability = = =
41 410
42
Qbhf!8!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
1 + 3x
1− x
1 1
−
= (1 + 3 x) 2 (1 − x) 2
1 1 1 3
1 (− ) (− )(− )
1
= 1 + (3 x) + 2 2 (3x) 2 + ... 1 − (− ) x + 2 2 x 2 + ...
2 2! 2 2!
= 1 + 2 x + ...
1 1
(b) − < x <
3 3
1
(c) Put x = −
7
1
1 + 3(− )
7 = 1 + 2(− 1 ) + ...
1 7
1 − (− )
7
1 2
≈ 1 − ≈ 0.7
2 7
Qbhf!9!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a) (1 + ax )
−2
= 1 + (− 2 )(ax ) +
(− 2)(− 3) (ax )2 + (− 2 )(− 3)(− 4 ) (ax )3 + ...
2! 3!
= 1 − 2ax + 3a x − 4a 3 x 3 + ...
2 2
∴ − 108 = −4a 3
a=3
b = −2a = −6
c = 3a 2 = 27
1 3 1 3 5
− − − − −
1 2 2
(ax ) + 2 2 2 (ax )3 + ...
1
(i) (1 + ax )− 2 = 1 + − (ax ) +
2
2 2! 3!
a 3a 2 2 5a 3 3
= 1− x+ x − x + ...
2 8 16
3 2 27
(ii) a =
8 32
9
a2 =
4
3
a=±
2
Qbhf!:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
n(n − 1)a 2 2
(a) (1 + ax )n = 1 + nax + x + ...
2
3
na = 2 ..........................(1)
n(n − 1)a = 3 ..............(2)
2
2 2
(2) n −1 2
=
(1) 2
2n 3
4n = 3n − 3
n = −3
1
∴ a=−
2
(b) x <2
(a.)
3 + 2 x 3x
−e
2+ x
x
−1
= (3 + 2 x)(2 + x) − e 3
x −1 3x
= (3 + 2 x)[2(1 + )] − e
2
x x x
( ) 2 ( )3
x ( −1)( − 2) x ( − 1)( − 2)( −3) x
= 2 −1 (3 + 2 x)[1 − + ( )2 + ( )3 + ...] − [1 + 3 + 3 + 3 + ...]
2 2! 2 3! 2 1! 2! 3!
2 3 2 3
1 x x x x x x
= (3 + 2 x)(1 − + − + ...) − (1 + + + + ...)
2 2 4 8 3 18 162
coeff. of x 3 :
1 1 1 1 1
= (3)(− ) + (2)( ) −
2 8 2 4 162
73
=
1296
(b.)
x
Valid range: <1
2
⇒ x <2
Qbhf!21!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a.)
p 4 − 4 p 3k + 6 p 2 k 2 − 4 pk 3 + k 4
= C04 p 4−0 (− k )0 + C14 p 4−1 (−k )1 + C 42 p 4− 2 (− k ) 2 + C34 p 4−3 (− k )3 + C 44 p 4− 4 (− k ) 4
= ( p − k )4
(b.)
1
(1 − x) 2
1 1 1 1 1
( )( − 1) ( )( − 1)( − 2)
1
= 1 + ( − x) + 2 2 (− x) + 2 2
2 2 (− x)3 + ...
2 2! 3!
1 1 1
= 1 − x − x 2 − x3 + ...
2 8 16
Valid range: − x < 1
⇒ x <1
∵ x = −6, −6 > 1
∴ It is not valid.
(a.)
2
= 2(1 − x) −2
(1 − x) 2
( − 2)( − 2 − 1)...(−2 − r + 1)
The (r + 1)th term: 2[ (− x)r ]
r!
( − 2 − 0)( − 2 − 1)...(−2 − (r − 1))
= 2[ (−1) r ( x) r ]
r!
(2)(3)...(r + 1) r
= 2[ ( x) ]
r!
= 2(r + 1) x r
(b.)
Sub r = 5,
coeff. of x5 = 2(5 + 1) = 12
Qbhf!22!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(ai) ( p + q + r )2
= (( p + q ) + r )
2
= ( p + q ) + 2( p + q )r + r 2
2
= p 2 + q 2 + r 2 + 2 pq + 2qr + 2rp
( p + q + r )6 = ( p + q + r )( p + q + r )( p + q + r )( p + q + r )( p + q + r )( p + q + r )
Coefficient of pr 5 , pq 5 , rp 5 , rq 5 , qp 5 and qr 5 = 6
(bi) Probability required
= 1 – P(all same colour)
= 1 – P(all red) – P(all blue) – P(all green)
= 1 − a6 − b6 − c6
5 1 1
(a) ln q = ln( x + 3) − ln(2 x − 1) − ( x + 6)
2 2 2
Differentiate both sides w.r.t. x , we have
1 dq 5 2 1
= − −
q dx 2( x + 3) 2(2 x − 1) 2( x + 6)
dq 5 1 1
= q − −
dx 2( x + 3) 2 x − 1 2( x + 6)
(b) q = 3 y
ln q = y ln 3
1 dy
= ln 3
q dq
dy 1
=
dq q ln 3
dy dy dq 1 5 1 1
Hence, = = − −
dx dq dx ln 3 2( x + 3) 2 x − 1 2( x + 6)
Qbhf!23!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(c)
y
(–2, 10)
(2, 5)
O (5, 0) x
= −336
∴ The total number decreased in the first 8 years is 336.
Qbhf!24!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
Let 設 u = t 2 + 4t
Then du = 2(t + 2)dt
x = ∫ 2(t + 2) t 2 + 4t dt
1
x = ∫ u du
2
3
2 2
x= u +C
3
3
2
x = (t 2 + 4t )2 + C
3
3
2 2
Since x = 100 when t = 0 , 100 =
3
(0 + 4( 0) ) 2 + C
C = 100
3
2 2
∴x =
3
(t + 4t )2 + 100
dy
= 2 x ln x + x
dx
∫ (2 x ln x + x )dx = x ln x + C
2
2 ∫ x ln xdx = x 2 ln x − ∫ xdx + C
∫ x ln xdx = 2 (x )
1 C
2
ln x − ∫ xdx +
2
x2 1 C
= (ln x − ) + C ' where C ' =
2 2 2
Let X be the number of students going to school by bus every day in a class.
(a) P( X = 6) = C 620 (0.3) (1 − 0.3)
6 14
= 0.1916
(b) E ( X ) = np = 20 × 0.3 = 6
The mean number of students is 6.
(c) The probability that the 10th class is the first one to have exactly 5 students going to
school by bus every day
= (1 − 0.1916 ) (0.1916 )
9
= 0.0283
Qbhf!25!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
3 4 e −3
(a) P= = 0.1680
4!
(b) P = 0.168031355 × (C 34 (0.55) 3 (1 − 0.55) + 0.55 4 ) = 0.0657
(a) Median = 76
Interquartile range = 23
(b)
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Qbhf!26!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a) a = 4 , b = 1, c = 4
(b)
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
Before After
replacement replacement
1M any box-and-whisker diagram with correct scale
1M all correct, same scale
Qbhf!27!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
40
Number of Persons
30
20
10
10 15 125 45 55
Mode age = 15 + 5 × 10 = 25 35
10 + 25 7
Age (X)
(b) Original mean ≈ 22 while actual mean is 22.2
Therefore the correct value of the wrong data should be larger then it’s original
value by about 20 and the most probable actual group should be 45 ≤ X < 55 .
Qbhf!28!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
Suggested Solution(SECTION B)
24
(a) f ( 0) = g ( 0) p= =8 1A
3
60 8
f (12) = g (12) = q=2 1A
15 q
3 x + 24
(b) Since lim− f ( x) = lim− = −∞
x → −3 x+3
x → −3
3 x + 24
and lim+ f ( x) = lim+ = +∞
x → −3 x → −3 x+3
∴ x = −3 is a vertical asymptote. 1A
24
3+
Since lim f ( x) = lim x =3
x → ±∞ x → ±∞ 3
1+
x
∴ y = 3 is a horizontal asymptote. 1A
y
x = −3
y = g (x )
(0,8)
y=3
(12,4)
O x
(− 8,0)
y = f (x )
Qbhf!29!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
1
− x ln 2 12 1
Let u = 2 12
, then ln u = − x and dx = − du 1M
12 ln 2 u
1
k +12 − x
∫k
(8)2 12
dx
k
− −1
2 12 12 1
∫ −
k
2 12
8u − du
ln 2 u
1M
k
− −1
2 12
96
= − u k 1M
ln 2 2−12
96 −12k −1 −12k
=− 2 −2
ln 2
k
96 −
= (2 12 ) 1A
2 ln 2
48 −12k
If (2 ) = 36 + 15ln 5 , then
ln 2
k ln 2
− ln 2 = ln (36 + 15ln 5)
12 48
k = 2.4413 1A
Qbhf!2:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
( x − 5)(3) − (3 x − 6)(1) −9
(a) f ' (x ) = = <0 1
( x − 5) 2
( x − 5 )2
(b) ∵ f (− 1) = g (− 1) and f (4) = g (4)
3 1 − e0
= h −1 + k
2 e
∴
− 6 = h 1 − e + k
5
e4
3
e 4 (6 + ) 4
2 = 15e
h =
e5 − 1 2(e 5 − 1) 1A+1A
3
k =
2
(c)
3x − 6 3x − 6
∵ lim f ( x ) = = −∞ and lim+ f ( x ) = = +∞ 1A
x →5 − x−5 x → 5 x−5
∴ x = 5 is a vertical asymptote to C1 .
6
3−
∵ lim f ( x ) = lim x =3
x → ±∞ x → ±∞ 5
1−
x
∴ y = 3 is a horizontal asymptote to C1 . 1A
C2 y
10
C1
5
(–1, 3/2) (0, 6/5)
0 2 4 6 x
–4 –2 (0, –0.78)
–5
(4, –6)
–10
–15 C1
Qbhf!31!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
15e 4 1 − e x +1 3
(d) g (x ) = +
2(e 5 − 1) e x 2
15e 4 e x (−e x +1 ) − (1 − e x +1 )e x
− 15e 4 − x
g ' (x ) = = e 1M
2(e 5 − 1) e2x 5
2(e − 1)
∴ g ' ( x ) < 0 and hence g ( x ) is (strictly) decreasing for all values of x.
1M
For x < −2 , f ( x ) < 3 but g ( x ) > 3 .
For x > 6 , f ( x ) > 3 but g ( x ) < 3
Thus C1 and C 2 has no point of intersection at the range. 1
4 3x − 6 15e 4 1 − e x +1 3
=∫ − − dx
− 5 5
− x
−1
x 2 ( e 1) e 2
4 9 15e 4 3 4
3 + dx −
4
(
∫−1 x − 5 2(e 5 − 1) ∫−1 e − e dx − 2 ∫−1dx
−x
)
4
3 4
= [x]−1 + 9[ln x − 5 ]4−1 − 155e − e − x − ex 4−1
[ ] 1A+1A
2 2(e − 1)
= 7.5 − 16.12583522 + 30.25438706
= 21.6286 1A
Qbhf!32!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
a. Vertical asymptotes : x = −4
Horizontal asymptotes : y = 2
C1
(4, 0) C1
–4
–2
C2
C2
b) C 2 : Vertical asymptotes x = −4
Horizontal asymptotes y = −2
x-intercept = 4
y-intercept = − 2
point of intersection = (4, 0)
λ 2x − 8 2x − 8
c) ∫ − − dx = 4λ − 16 + 32 ln (λ − 6 )
4 x + 4 x + 4
λ x−4
4∫ dx = 4λ − 16 + 32 ln (λ − 6 )
4 x+4
λ 8
∫4 1 − x + 4 dx = λ − 4 + 8 ln(λ − 6)
[x − 8 ln( x + 4)]λ4 = λ − 4 + 8 ln(λ − 6)
(λ − 4) − 8(ln(λ + 4) − ln(8)) = λ − 4 + 8 ln(λ − 6)
ln 8 − ln(λ + 4) = ln(λ − 6)
8
=λ −6
λ+4
λ2 − 2λ − 32 = 0
λ = 1 + 33 or λ = 1 − 33 (rejected)
Qbhf!33!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(c) y
C1: y = f(x)
(6, 7)
y=5
C1: y = f(x)
O x
(-1, 0) (5, 0)
C2: y = g(x)
(0, –5)
3A
(2, –9)
x=1
Qbhf!34!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
5 x + 5 5( x − 1) + 10 10
y= = = 5+
x −1 x −1 x −1
dy 10
=−
dx ( x − 1) 2
When x = 6
dy 10 2
=− 2
=−
dx (6 − 1) 5
Equation of Tangent:
y−7 2
=−
x−6 5
2 x + 5 y − 47 = 0
1M+1A
Qbhf!35!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
t 0 1 2 3 4
2
t
1 1.22140 2.22554 6.04965 24.53253
e5
1A
t2
4 4−0
∴ ∫0
5
e dt =
2(4)
(1 + 24.53253 + 2 (1.22140 + 2.22554 + 6.04965) ) 1M
= 22.2629 1A
t
2
− P t =0 = ∫ 4e 5 − t dt
4
∵ P t =4
0
4
2
t
∴ P t =6 = ∫ 4e 5 − t dt + 20 2A
0
t2 4
4 t 2
= 5∫ e dt − + 20
10
1A
0
2 0
= 5 × 22.2629 − 8 + 20
= 101.0516 ∼ 101 1A
Qbhf!36!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
x 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 1A
f (x ) 1 1.00083 1.00336 1.00761 1.01370 1.02175
0.25 − 0
I1 =
2(5)
( (1 + 1.02175) + 2 (1.00083 + 1.00336 + 1.00761 + 1.01370 ) )
= 0.2518 1M+1A
2x
f ' (x ) = 4
1A
2 3
3(1 − x )
2(3 + 5 x 2 )
f ' ' (x ) = 7
1A
(
9 1− x )
2 3
1
f ' ' (x ) > 0 for 0 ≤ x ≤ ,
4
1
∴ f ( x ) is concave upward (or convex) on 0, 1
4
Hence I 1 is an over-estimate of I. 1A
Qbhf!37!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
1
f ( x ) = (1 − x 2 )
−
(b) (i) 3
1 4 1 4 7
− − − − −
1
= 1+ − − x +
3 3
+
3 3 3
_ 2
( )− x2 ( )2
( )3
− x 2 + ...
3 2! 3!
_ 1M+1A
1 2 14 1
= 1 + x 2 + x 4 + x 6 + ... for 0 ≤ x ≤
3 9 81 4
1 2 14
∴ P( x ) = 1 + x 2 + x 4 + x 6 + ... 1A
3 9 81
1
1 2 14
I2 = ∫ 4 1 + x 2 + x 4 + x 6 dx
0
3 9 81
1
1 2 5 2 7 4
= x + x3 + x + x 1A
9 45 81 0
= 0.2518 1A
1 1 1
∞
− − − 1... − − r + 1
∵ f (x ) = p(x ) + ∑
r =4
3 3 3
r!
((
− x2 ))
r
1 4 1
∞
... + r − 1
= p ( x ) + ∑ x 2r
3 3 3
r =4 r!
> p(x )
Hence I > I 2
i.e. I 2 is an under-estimate of I.
(iii)
1 1
8x + 3 4(2 x + 1) − 1
∫ 2 x + 1 ∫04 2 x + 1 dx
0
4
dx =
1
1
= ∫44− dx
0 2x +1
1
ln(2 x + 1) 4
= 4 x −
2 0
= 0.7973
Since I 2 < I < I1 (by (a) and (b) ), I ≈ 0.2518 , I 3 > I
Qbhf!38!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
4ab
(a) (i) lnP' (t ) = −bt + ln …1A
1− a
From the graph,
0.25 − 2.75
−b = , b ≈ 0 .5 …1A
5−0
4ab
ln = 2.75 , a ≈ 0.8866 ≈ 0.9 …1A
1− a
P' (t ) = 18e −0.5t
P(t ) = −36e −0.5t + c for some constant c …1M
Since P(0) = 21 , ∴c = 57 …1A
Hence P(t ) = −36e −0.5t + 57
1
−
S(t ) = −4.8(t + 9) 2 + c for some constant c
Since S(0) = 25, c = 26.6.
1
−
Hence, S(t ) = −4.8(t + 9) 2
+ 26.6
lim S(t ) = 26.6 < 48.9673
t →∞
Qbhf!39!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
10.5
10
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
0 3 t
1 2 4
At t = 3.0 , F(t ) = 5624 is incorrect, …1A
(b)y-intercept = ln200 …1A
(c) ln F(2.5) ≈ 7.7
∴ F(2.5) = 2208 …1A
Qbhf!3:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
0 0 .5 1 1 .5 2 ln t
…1A+1A
Qbhf!41!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(II)
ln P ' ( t )
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
…1A+1A
From the graphs, equation of Peter would be a better model and
ln u ≈ 2.5
u ≈ e 2.5 ≈ 12.18 …1A
3.38 − 2.63
v≈ ≈ 0.15 …1A
6 −1
10
(b) P(10) − P (0) = ∫ u evt dt where u ≈ 12.18, v ≈ 0.15 …1M+1A
0
u vt 10 12.18 0.15t 10
=
v
[ ]
e 0 (≈
0.15
e [
0 ) ]
≈ 283.7132
P(10) = P(0) + 282.7132 = 450 + 282.7132 ≈ 733
∴The population of the country after 10 years will be 733 thousands. …1A
k k
Consider P(k ) − P(0) = ∫ ue dt , P(k ) = P(0) + ∫ ue dt = 733 × 2 = 1466
vt vt
0 0
k
∫ 0
uevt dt = 1466 − 450 = 1016 …1M
12.18 0.15 k
e − 1 = 1016 ⇒ k ≈ 17.3573 ≈ 18
0.15
∴ The number of population will be doubled in 18 – 10 = 8 years more. …1A
Qbhf!42!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a) f (t ) = 24 + 3 − at +b
ln( f (t ) − 24) = −(a ln 3)t + b ln 3
− a ln 3 = −0.66
a ≈ 0.600758
a = 0 .6
b ln 3 = 2.20
b ≈ 2.00253
b=2
(c)
The total number of newspaper sold
10
= ∫ g (t )dt
2
10 − 2
= [g (2) + g (10) + 2( g (4) + g (6) + g (8))]
2( 4)
≈ 212.3652526
= 212.3653
(in thousand)
(d) (i) 3t = e rt
r = ln 3
g (t ) = 24 + ln(t + 2) + 3 −0.6t + 2
g (t ) = 24 + ln(t + 2) + 9e − (ln 3) 0.6t
dg 1
= + −(ln 3)5.4e − (ln 3) 0.6t
dt t + 2
d 2g 1
2
= (ln 3) 2 3.24e − (ln 3) 0.6t −
dt (t + 2) 2
m(t ) = (ln 3)2 3.24e − (ln 3)0.6t
d 2g 1
(iii) Note that 2
= (ln 3) 2 3.24e −(ln 3) 0.6t − ≠0
dt (t + 2) 2
And p (t ) = (ln 3) 2 3.24e − (ln 3) 0.6t > 0 for 2 ≤ t ≤ 10
d 2g
Then >0
dt 2
The estimate in (c) is an over-estimate.
Qbhf!43!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
a
a 50a
Given that R( x) = 50(1 − bx
) = 50 − bx
e e
50a
⇔ 50 − R( x) =
ebx
50a
⇔ ln (50 − R( x)) = ln( )
ebx
⇔ ln (50 − R( x)) = ln 50a − ln ebx
⇔ ln (50 − R( x)) = −bx + ln 50a
b
Consider the following table.
x 10 20 30 40
R(x) 23.1872 32.0268 37.9522 41.9241
ln (50 − R( x)) 3.2889 2.8889 2.4889 2.0889
ln ( 50 − R( x) )
ln ( 50 − R ( x) )
0 x
0 10 20 30 40
Qbhf!44!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
c
0.8
Now R( x) = 50(1 − 0.04 x
) = 50 − 40e −0.04 x
e
dR ( x)
= −40(−0.04)e −0.04 x = 1.6e −0.04 x
dx
2
d R( x)
2
= 1.6(−0.04)e −0.04 x = −0.064e−0.04 x
dx
dR( x) d 2 R( x)
Note that > 0 and < 0 for all x > 0, also
dx dx 2
dR( x) d 2 R( x)
lim = lim1.6e −0.04 x = 0 and lim 2
= lim − 0.064e −0.04 x = 0
x →∞ dx x →∞ x →∞ dx x →∞
Hence, it means that R(x) increases continuously but the rate of increase is
decreasing. In the long run, R(x) will become stable (at 50).
d
Let P (x) be the profit of the park
0.8
P( x) = 50(1 − ) − 0.2 x − 4 = 46 − 40e−0.04 x − 0.2 x
e0.04 x
dP ( x)
= −40(−0.04)e−0.04 x − 0.2 = 1.6e −0.04 x − 0.2
dx
d 2 P( x)
2
= 1.6(−0.04)e −0.04 x = −0.064e −0.04 x
dx
dP( x)
When = 0, x ≈ 51.9860 ≈ 52
dx
d 2 P( x)
Note that < 0 for all x.
dx 2
The required value of x is 52.
Qbhf!45!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
C ' ( x ) = −21qe − qx
+ 48qe −2 qx 1A
= −3qe − qx
(7 − 16e ) − qx
7 1 16
C ' ( x ) = 0 when e −qx = or x = ln 1A
16 q 7
1 16
> 0 when 0≤x< ln
and C ' (x ) q 7
1M
< 0 1 16
when x > ln
q 7
7
∴ C ( x ) is maximum when e −qx =
16
7 7
The maximum CISD = 8 + 21( ) − 24( ) 2 mg/L
16 16
= 12.5938 mg/L 1A
8(e ) − 7e + 1 = 0
− qx 2 − qx
7 ± 17
e −qx = 1A
16
1 7 ± 17
x = − ln
q 16
1 7 − 17 1 7 + 17
Hence − ln + ln = 5.41 1M+1A
q 16 q 16
1 7 + 17
ln = 5.41
q 7 − 17
q = 0.25 (2 d.p.) 1A
Qbhf!46!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
Qbhf!47!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a) ∵ N (0) = 72
360
∴ = 72 1M
1+ a
a=4 1A
∵ N (7 ) = 85.4
360
∴ = 85.4 1M
1 + 4e − 7 α
1 360
e − 7α = − 1
4 85.4
1 1 360
α = − ln − 1 1M
7 4 85.4
α = 0.03
360
(b) N (t ) =
1 + 4e − 0.03t
N ' (t ) =
(
− 360 (4)(−0.03)e −0.03t
=
)
43.2e − 0.03t
>0 1M+1A+1
(
1 + 4e − 0.03t
2
) (
1 + 4e − 0.03t
2
)
∴ N (t ) is increasing.
(c) ∵ lim e −αt = 0
t →∞
360 360
∴ N s = lim − 0. 03 t
= = 360 1M+1A
t → ∞ 1 + 4e 1 + 4( 0)
(d) N ' ' (t )
(1 + 4e −0.03t ) 2 (−0.03e −0.03t ) − (e −0.03t )(2)(1 + 4e −0.03t )(−0.12e −0.03t )
= (43.2) 1M
(1 + 4e )
−0.03t 4
=
(
1.296e −0.03t 4e −0.03t − 1 ) 1A
(1 + 4e )
−0.03t 3
1 1
where t0 = − ln = 46.2098
0.03 4
∴ The rate of increase is the greatest when t = t0 = 46.2098 1M
∵ N ' (46) = 2.69997
N ' (47 ) = 2.6996
∴ The railway company should start promotion campaign on the 46th day
after the first 2 week. 1A
Qbhf!48!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
dW 12t (1 − t )
(b) = 2 t −3 2
dt e +t
d 2W
=
( ) (
e2t −3 + t 2 (12 − 24t ) − (12t (1 − t ) ) 2e 2t −3 + 2t )
2
dt 2 ( )
e 2 t −3 + t 2
1M for quotient rule
2 t −3 2 2
d 2W e (2t − 4t + 1) − t
= 12 1A
dt 2 2 2
(
e 2 t −3
+ t )
dW
When = 0 , we have t = 0 or t =1.
dt
d 2W
2 >0
d t t =0
Hence we have . 1M for testing + 1A
2
d W
<0
dt 2
t =1
Qbhf!49!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(c) (i) No, the maximum value is only 108. (by (b))
1M for comparing W (1) and
150 + 1A
(ii) lim W
t →∞
t2 4
= lim 6 ln(e + 2t e ) + 94
t →∞
e
= 6 ln(e + 0) + 94
= 6 + 94
= 100 1A
In the long run, W will tend to 100. It means that the number of ants
will become stable at 100. 1A for description
Qbhf!4:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
Expected money win by Draw A
1(2000) + 4(500) + 96(0)
= = 40
100
Expected money win by Draw B
1(70000) + 3(5000) + 6 s + 490(0) 3s
= = 170 +
500 250
Since the selling price of Draw B ticket is 5 times of Draw A,
the expected amount won per dollar of the 2 draws are the same.
1 3s
∴ 40 = (170 + )
5 250
s = 2500
(b)(i)
The required probability
95 C5490
= ×
100 C5500
= 0.858372 ≈ 0.8584
(b)(ii)
The required probability
5 C5490 95 C110C4490
= × + ×
100 C5500 100 C5500
= 0.133487 ≈ 0.1335
(c)
P (win more than 1 prize)
= 1 − 0.858372 − 0.133487 = 0.008141
The required probability
= 0.008141 + 0.858372(0.008141) + 0.8583722 (0.008141) + 0.8583723 (0.008141) + ...
0.008141
=
1 − 0.858372
= 0.057482 ≈ 0.0575
Qbhf!51!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)(i)
2
( 0.7 ) = 0.49
(a)(ii)
2 ( 0.3)( 0.7 ) = 0.42
(a)(iii)
2
( 0.3) = 0.09
(b)
Expected number
= 0.49 ( n − 2 ) + 0.42n + 0.09 ( n + 2 )
= n − 0.8
(c)
The required probability
= P ( 9 L ) + P (1W 10 L )
9 10
= ( 0.7 ) + C19 ( 0.3)( 0.7 )
≈ 0.1166
(d)
The required probability
9
2 ( 0.3)( 0.7 )( 0.7 )
=
0.1166
= 0.1453
Qbhf!52!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
P ( Fails to win any cash prize )
= P ( three '10' ) + P ( two '10 ' and one '30' )
3 2
6 3 6
= _ C13
10 10 10
27
=
50
(b)
The required probability
= P ( one '10' and two '30' ) + P ( three '30' ) + P ( one '10' and one '50' and one '30' )
+ P ( two '10' and one '50' )
2 3 2
6 3 3 6 3 1 6 1
= C + + ( 3!) + C13
3
1
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
81
=
200
(c)
The required probability
27 81
1− −
= 50 200 = 11
27 92
1−
50
(d)
11
P (Y = $500 ) =
200
81
P (Y = $100 ) =
200
27
P (Y = $0 ) =
50
11 81
Expected value = 500 × + 100 × = $68
200 200
Qbhf!53!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
Let S be the event that Tom will leave an umbrella in the restaurant on a certain day.
R be the event that it will be raining at 7am on a certain day.
P(S) = P ( S ∩ R ) + P ( S ∩ R )
= 0.3(1)(1 − 0.77)(0.3) + (1 − 0.3)(0.25)(1 − 0.1)(0.3)
= 0.06795
(b)
P( R ∩ S ) 0.0207 46
Probability = P( R S ) = = = = 0.3046
P( S ) 0.06795 151
(c)
46
P(E1 ) =
151
From (a), P ( E2 ) = P ( S ) = 0.06795
From (b), P ( E1 ∩ E2 ) = P ( R ∩ S ) = 0.0207
46
P(E1 ) P ( E2 ) =× 0.06795 = 0.0207 = P ( E1 ∩ E2 )
151
∴ the two events are independent.
(d)
P(Tom will leave more than one umbrella)
= 1 − P (Tom will leave no umbrella) − P(Tom will leave one umbrella)
= 1 − (1 − 0.06795)5 − C15 (0.06795)(1 − 0.06795) 4
≈ 0.04021
Qbhf!54!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
Let D be the event that a device is defective.
EP , EQ , ER be the event that a device is produced by P, Q and R respectively.
2 x + y + 3 y = 100
x + 2 y = 50 --------(1)
P(D) = 0.13
3 x + 4 y = 130 ---------(2)
Solve (1) and (2):
x = 30, y = 10
(b)
P ( ER ∩ D ) 0.6 × 0.15 9
P ( ER D ) = = =
P( D) 0.13 13
(c)(i)
Let X be the no. of defectives in the sample.
P ( X ≥ 3)
= 1 − P ( X = 0) − P ( X = 1) − P ( X = 2)
= 1 − (1 − 0.13)10 − C110 (0.13)(1 − 0.13)9 − C210 (0.13) 2 (1 − 0.13)8
= 0.1308
(c)(ii)
The required probability
10! 4 2 4
= ( 0.6 ) ( 0.1) ( 0.3)
4!4!2!
= 0.03307
(c)(iii)
The required probability
3 4 3 2 3
= C14 ( 0.15 )( 0.85 ) C12 ( 0.1)( 0.9 )( 0.9 ) + C14 ( 0.15 )( 0.85 ) ( 0.9 ) C14 ( 0.1)( 0.9 )
= 0.1305
Qbhf!55!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
1
a) Mean = ≈ 2.63 ≈ 3
0.38
7 2
b) Prob required = C79 ( 0.38 ) ( 0.62 ) ( 0.38 ) = 0.006017
c) (i)Mean = 12(0.38) ≈ 5
= 1 − 0.2704 = 0.7296
iii) P(4S8G or 5S7G or 6S6G)
= C 412 (0.38) (0.62) + C 512 (0.38) (0.62) + C 612 (0.38) (0.62)
4 8 5 7 6 6
= 0.6044
0.6044
iv) Prob required = = 0.8284
0.7296
ci) Prob required = (0.7296 ) = 0.5323
2
Qbhf!56!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
= 0.7520 1A
Probability of rejection, p r = 1 − Pa
= 0.2480
The third box being rejected = = (0.7520) 2 (0.2480) = 0.1402
(d) (1 − r % )8 ≥ 0.9 1M
r % ≤ 0.013084
r ≤ 1.3084
∴ The greatest acceptable value of r is 1.3084. 1A
Qbhf!57!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
Let T1 and T2 (in minutes) denote the journey times required for Routes R1 and R2
respectively.
T1 ~ N (27 , 10)
T2 = T3 + T4 ,
Where T3 (in minutes) = time taken for Siu Ming to walk from Central
Station to Hong Kong Station,
T4 (in minutes) = journey time from Hong Kong Station to Lai King
Station
T3 = 5
T4 ~ N(14 , 16)
T2 ~ N(5 + 14, 16)
T2 ~ N(19 , 16)
∴ T2 follows a normal distribution with mean 19 minutes and standard deviation
4 minutes.
(b)
T2 – T1 ~ N(19 – 27, 10 + 16)
T2 – T1 ~ N(– 8, 26)
P(T2 – T1 > 0)
0 − (−8)
= P(Z > )
26
≈ P( Z > 1.5689)
≈ 0.0582
Qbhf!58!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
= 0.9876 1A
(c) Let x0 be the required critical value of score.
( ( ))
P X > x0 X ~ N 56,6 2 = 0.005
x − 56
P Z > 0 = 0.005 1A
6
x0 − 56
= 2.575 1M
6
x0 = 71.45 1A
(d) If a drunken driver is classified by the technician, then
P(classify as non-drunken driver drunken driver)
( (
= P X < 71.45 X ~ N 75,5 2 )) 1M
= P(Z < −0.71)
= 0.5 − 0.2611
= 0.2389
∴ P(misclassified) = (0.005)(0.92) + (0.2389)(0.08) 1M
= 0.0237 1A
If a driver is classified by the chief, then
P(misclassified) = (0.0228)(0.92) + (0.0808)(0.08)= 0.0274 1A
∵ 0.0274 > 0.0237
∴ The probability of drivers misclassified by the chief is greater than
that by the technician. 1
Qbhf!59!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
c1 − 504
(a) ∵ P(Z < ) = 0.975 …1M
5
c − 504
∴ 1 = 1.96 …1A
5
∴c1 = 513.8 …1A
c 2 − 525
(b) ∵ P ( Z < ) = 0.004 …1M
6
c − 525
∴ 2 = −2.65 …1A
6
∴c 2 = 509.1 …1A
(c) Given that the cup of coke is filled by machine A, the required probability is
P(c1 > X and X > c 2 )
= P (509.1 < X < 513.8) …1M
509.1 − 504 513.8 − 504
= P( <Z< ) …1M
5 5
= P (1.02 < Z < 1.96)
= 0.4750 − 0.3461 …1M
= 0.1289 …1A
Qbhf!5:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
P(number of people > 2)
e −10100 e −10101 e −10102
= 1− − −
0! 1! 2! 2M
≈ 0.997231 = 0.9972 1A
(b)
P(T < 2) = 0.4013
2−µ 1M
P( Z < ) = 0.4013
σ
2−µ
= −0.25......(1)
σ
P(2 ≤ T < 4) = 0.3721
P(T < 4) = 0.3721 + 0.4013 = 0.7734
1M
4−µ
P( Z < ) = 0.7734
σ
4−µ
= 0.75......(2)
σ
Solving (1) and (2),
σ =2 1A
µ = 2.5 1A
Qbhf!61!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(c)
p
= P(4 ≤ T < 6)
4 − 2.5 6 − 2.5 1M
= P( ≤T < )
2 2
= 0.4599 − 0.2734
= 0.1865 1A
q
= P(6 ≤ T < 8)
6 − 2.5 8 − 2.5 1M
= P( ≤T < )
2 2
= 0.4970 − 0.4599
= 0.0371 1A
(d)
The required probability
= P (T ≥ 6 s | T > 2 s )
P (T ≥ 6 s ∩ T > 2 s )
=
P (T > 2 s ) 1M
P (T ≥ 6 s )
=
P (T > 2 s ) 1M
0.0371 + 0.0030
=
1 − 0.4013 1M
≈ 0.066978 = 0.0670 1A
Qbhf!62!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
Let X ~ N(20, 52) be the length of time spent on searching the photo
(a) The required probability
= P( X > 22) × 0.9
22 − 20
= P(Z > ) × 0.9 1M
5
= P ( Z > 0.4) × 0.9
= (0.5 − 0.1554) × 0.9
= 0.31014 1A
(b) The required probability
= P( X < 16)(0.4) + P(16 ≤ X ≤ 22)(0.75) + P( X > 22)(0.9) 1M
= (0.5 − 0.2881)(0.4) + (0.2881 + 0.1554)(0.75) + (0.3446)(0.9) 1M
≈ 0.727525
= 0.7275 1A
(c) The required probability
(0.5 − 0.2881)(0.4)
= 2M
0.727525
≈ 0.116504587
= 0.1165 1A
(d) The required probability
= C25 (1 − 0.7275)2 (0.7275)3 1M
≈ 0.285911752
= 0.2859 1A
(e) The required probability
C 5 (0.2119 × 0.6) 2 (0.7275)3
= 2 2M
0.285911752
≈ 0.217686452
= 0.2177 1A
(f) Let µ be the new mean
P( X < 16) ≤ 0.025
16 − µ
P( Z < ) ≤ 0.025 1M
5
16 − µ
≤ −1.96
5
µ ≥ 25.80
Hence the least value of new mean is 25.80 hours. 1A
Qbhf!63!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
P(number of customers < 5)
e−6 60 e −6 61 e−6 62 e −6 63 e−6 64
= − − − −
0! 1! 2! 3! 4!
≈ 0.2850565 = 0.2581
(b)
P( X > 100) = 0.0026
100 − µ
P( Z > ) = 0.0026
12.5
100 − µ
= 2.80
12.5
µ = 65
Qbhf!64!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
Let µ and σ be the mean and standard deviation of the weight of the people.
P( X < 60.6) = 0.166
60.6 − µ
P( Z < ) = 0.166
σ
60.6 − µ
= −0.97
σ
µ − 0.97σ − 60.6 = 0.............................(1)
P( X > 103.8) = 0.117
103.8 − µ
P( Z > ) = 0.117
σ
103.8 − µ
= 1.19
σ
µ + 1.19σ − 103.8 = 0............................(2)
By solving (1) and (2),
µ = 80 and σ = 20
P( X > 100)
100 − 80
= P( Z > )
20
= P( Z > 1)
= 0.1587
(b)
P( X < 75)
75 − 80
= P( Z < )
20
= P( Z < −0.25)
= 0.4013
Qbhf!65!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(c)(i)
Mean of weight = 80
Standard Deviation of weight = 20
Mean of charges = 400 + 20(80) = 2000
Standard Deviation of charges = 20(20) = 400
(c)(ii)
P(Heart Disease) = 0.17574
The required probability
= C35 0.175743 (1 − 0.17574) 2
= 0.036876
≈ 0.0369
(c)(iii)
2400 = 400 + 20 x
x = 100
∴ When the person uses more than $2400, his weight is greater than 100kg.
P(A person have heart disease and less than 100 kg)
= 0.4013 × 0.1 + 0.44 × 0.2
= 0.12813
P(A person does not have heart disease and less than 100 kg)
= 0.4013 × 0.9 + 0.44 × 0.8
= 0.71317
Qbhf!66!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a) Let X be the number of birthday cakes sold in a day. Also let λ be the sample
mean of the number of computers sold in a day.
(b) For the number of cakes sold is 6 or more, the expected number of days by the
Poisson distribution is
Let SE1 be the sum of errors for model fitted by the Poisson distribution. So,
SE1
=| 5 − 6.37 | + | 13 − 13.13 | + | 15 − 13.52 | + | 10 − 9.28 | + | 5 − 4.78 | + | 2 − 1.97 | + | 0 − 0.95 |
= 4 .9
For the number of cakes sold is 6 or more, the expected number of days by the
binomial distribution is
Let SE2 be the sum of errors for model fitted by the binomial distribution. So,
SE 2
=| 5 − 4.98 | + | 13 − 12.92 | + | 15 − 15.08 | + | 10 − 10.44 | + | 5 − 4.74 | + | 2 − 1.48 | + | 0 − 0.36 |
= 1.76
Qbhf!67!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(c) (i) Let Y kg be the weight of the birthday cake. Then, Y ~ N(1.8, 0.252)
The required probability
P(Y > 2.18)
2.18 − 1.8
= P(Z > )
0.25
= P( Z > 1.52)
= 0.5 − 0.4357
= 0.0643
Qbhf!68!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
Poisson distribution Binomial distribution
Frequency: e −0.8 0.8 x 60 ⋅ C x5 (0.16) (0.84)
x 5− x
60 ⋅
x!
Missing values: 21.57……1A 23.90……1A
8.63……..1A 1.73…….1A
(b) The maximum error for Po ( 0.8 ) is 2.43 while that for B(5,0.16 ) is 0.27.
The binomial distribution is better. 1A
(c) (i) The probability of getting at least 1 stamp in a pack of the chocolate
= 1 − (1 − 0.16 )
5
1M
= 0.5818 1A
(ii) The probability of getting at least 1 stamp in buying not more than 4 packs
= p1 + (1 − p1 ) p1 + (1 − p1 ) p1 + (1 − p1 ) p1
2 3
2M
= 0.5818 + (1 − 0.5818)0.5818 + (1 − 0.5818) 0.5818 + (1 − 0.5818) 3 0.5818
2
= 0.9694 1A
Qbhf!69!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
a) (i)
Number of Po(4) Po(5)
desktop Observed
Expected* Expected*
computer Frequency Probability Probability
Frequency Frequency
sold
0 2 0.0183 1.8 0.0067 0.7
1 7 0.0733 7.3 0.0337 3.4
2 15 0.1465 14.7 0.0842 8.4
3 19 0.1954 19.5 0.1404 14.0
4 20 0.1954 19.5 0.1755 17.6
5 16 0.1563 15.6 0.1755 17.6
6 or more 21 0.2148 21.5 0.3840 38.3
* Correct to 1 decimal place
2M + 3A 1M for Expected Frequency
1M for Probability
1A + 1A for the 2 pairs of data
1A for all being correct
(ii) Po(4) fits the data better. 1A
(ii) Let Y be the number of days that no d.c. will be sold, then
Y ~ B(10, 0.0733) 1M
P (Y = 4) = C 410 (0.0733) (1 − 0.0733)
4 6
1M
= 0.0038 1A
Qbhf!6:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(a)
sample mean = 0.367
2A
sample variance = 0.368
Poisson distribution fits the results because sample mean is approximately equal to
the sample variance. 1A
泊松分佈符合結果,因為樣本平均值大約等於樣本方差。
(b)
Number of Observed Expected Absolute
smokers frequency frequency discrepancy
煙民數目 觀察頻數 預期頻數 絕對差異
0 104 103.921 0.079
1 38 38.139 0.139
2 7 6.999 0.001
3 1 0.856 0.144
Total 總數 150
2A
The absolute discrepancy of >3 smokers is 0.85.
Since the maximum absolute discrepancy = 0.144 < 0.4, this model can be
accepted.
> 3 名煙民的絕對誤差為 0.85。由於最大絕對差異 = 0.144 < 0.4,這個模擬
可以被接受。 1M + 1A
(c)(i)
P(male) = 0.6
1A
P(2 male) = 0.6 2 = 0.36
(c)(ii)
P(at least 1 male)
= P(1 male) + P(2 male)
1M + 1A
= C12 (0.6)(0.4) + 0.6 2
= 0.84
(d)(i)
P(2 smokers and both male)
= P(2 smokers) P(both male | 2 smokers)
6.999 2
= 0.6
150
= 0.0167976
1A
≈ 0.0168
Qbhf!71!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training
(d)(ii)
P(3 smokers and 2 male)
= P(3 smokers) P(2 male | 3 smokers)
0.856 3 2
= C2 0.6 (0.4)
150
1M
= 0.002465
1A
≈ 0.0025
(d)(iii)
P(2 smokers and 2 male| less than 3 smokers)
P((2 smokers and 2 male) and (less than 3 smokers))
=
P(less than 3 smokers)
P(2 smokers and 2 male)
=
P (less than 3 smokers)
0.0167976
= 1M
103.921 + 38.139 + 6.999
150
≈ 0.016904
1A
= 0.0169
Qbhf!72!