Traffic safety:

International
status and
strategies for
the future

Dinesh Mohan

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DELHI Plenary: Environmental Factors

5 November 2010
 Fatalities/Population Results, Log‐Linear 
Regional Time Trends

“…the traffic fatality rate of India, for example, will 
not begin to decline until 2042…”
Kopits, Elizabeth and Cropper, Maureen (2003) Traffic fatalities and economic growth.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3035, Washington DC: World Bank. IIT Delhi 9 November 2010
Road Traffic fatalities for 178 countries
Self Reported

USA
INDIA

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WHO Estimates for Road Traffic fatalities
178 countries

IRAN

UAE

JAPAN

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To school on a highway

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Two way traffic on a highway

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Safe (?) highway crossing

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Work trip at affordable costs

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Work trip at affordable costs

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Work trip at affordable costs

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Small city main street

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Medium sized city

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Mixed traffic – medium city

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Medium city

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Large city

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Large city

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Large city

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Globalization!

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 Problem 2
Persons killed in road traffic crashes in India
120

100

80
Thousand

60

40

20

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: NCRB, 2007 Estimated 1,650,000 hospitalised in 2006 IIT Delhi 2010-08-24
 Traffic fatality rates in cities with populations of at
least one million, 2001 and 2006

Source: NCRB, 2007 Increase 2-5 times in 5 years in many cities

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 West Bengal
Uttar Pradesh
Tripura
Tamil Nadu
Sikkim
Rajasthan
Punjab
Pondicherry
Orissa
Nagaland
Mizoram
Meghalaya
Manipur
Maharashtra
Madhya Pradesh
2006
2001
1991

Kerala
Karnataka
Jammu & Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Haryana
Gujarat
Goa
Delhi
Daman & Diu
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Chandigarh
Fatalities per million persons – states and UT

Bihar
Assam
Arunachal Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
0
50

“Culture” does not seem to be a determining factorIIT Delhi November 10

100
150
200
250
 Traffic fatalities and striking vehicle by road-user
type on national highways, 1999

Source: Tiwari, Mohan, and Gupta, 2000

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Fatalities by road user in Delhi Traffic fatalities by age group in Kota
(2001-2005), Mumbai (1996- and Mumbai
1997), and Kota (2007)

Unexpected low rates

‰ Children in general and on motorcycles

‰ Overloaded three-wheelers
Locations of fatal crashes in Kota
‰ Overloaded cycle rickshas
(2007) and Mumbai (1996-1997)

‰ Motorcycle crashes in general

‰ Crashes at junctions

IIT Delhi 2010-08-24

A thought exercise on effect of interventions

Daytime
light
Seat
Helmet
TOTAL belt
100%

PEDESTRIAN
Alcohol ~50%

MOTORCYCLE
Speed BICYCLE
~20%
~15% CAR OTHER
~ 10% ~8 %

Speed & alcohol checking essential

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“Fatalities in India would reach a total
of about 198,000 before starting to
decline in 2042” (Kopits and Cropper, World Bank, 2005)
We cannot wait another three decades – need to
change track, use modern science & technology

“In isolation, public & driver

education and information
campaigns do not deliver tangible,
sustained reductions in road traffic
deaths and serious injuries” (World Health Organisation)
Need to influence behaviour by design & technology
accompanied by enforcement

IIT Delhi 2010-08-24

 LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE
g The highway, the vehicle and the traffic management
components must be designed with a recognition of the
limitations of road users. This is contrary to the historical
view that road users through training, supervision and
retribution can cope with the demands of traditional
highways without causing accidents (Professor Murray
Mackay, President IRCOBI)
g Driver education was almost the exclusive focus of
highway safety improvement efforts in the United States
and elsewhere for 50+ years, and the evidence is clear it did
not work. The fact is, most highway safety educational
programs do not work. Research in the early 1970s showed
that a group of highly skilled competition race drivers
actually had worse on-the-road crash records than a group
of average drivers (B. O’Neill, President IIHS)
g Road safety work needs professional institutions - an
institution independent of the road building authority and
objective research groups (GTST)

09-11-2010 IIT DELHI

Effectiveness of crash avoidance technologies
Evaluation

¾ The willingness of drivers to use them

¾ Confidence - Unacceptable number of false positive or
false negative alarms > ignore or turn off
¾ Warnings at too frequent intervals (eg pedestrian
presence) may irritate drivers who may then ignore such
warnings
¾ Behaviour modification > Drivers with too much faith in
the systems may be less observant or drive more
aggressively.
¾ Research on reflector posts, raised pavement markers,
and other roadway markings on curves has reported
that drivers sometimes increase their speeds when
visibility is improved
¾ Testing effectiveness of these technologies in high
density pedestrian environment and heterogeneous
traffic will be very useful.
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 Safety priorities for India

‰ Pedestrians and other non-motorists in urban areas

¾ Separation of traffic on arterial roads and traffic
calming in all other areas – clear & continuous
pedestrian paths mandatory on all arterial roads
¾ Speed control, use of scientifically designed
roundabouts instead of traffic lights, no free left
turns
> Adaptive and generalized pre‐crash braking
> Speed limiting systems
¾ Pedestrian impact standards for all vehicles
‰ Motorcycles and cars
¾ Daytime running lights for motorcycles
¾ Enforcement of motorcyclist helmet-use laws in all
states
¾ Mandatory airbags, ABS, alcochol interlock for all
cars
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 Safety priorities for India – contd.

‰ Pedestrians, other non-motorists, and slow vehicles

on highways
¾ Highway designs to be modified to separate slow
vehicles and pedestrians – service lanes all along
the highway
> Image recognition traffic control systems
¾ Convenient road crossing facilities at frequent
intervals
¾ Speed control > vehicle- road communication
systems
‰ Over-involvement of trucks and buses
¾ Speed control > data loggers and GPS systems,
alcohol interlock
¾ Safer vehicle fronts and improved vehicle
conspicuity
¾ Research to understand the needs of local traffic
and to develop standards for breaks in medians (to
reduce wrong way driving) IIT Delhi November 10