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PANTALOON RETAIL INDIA PVT. LTD.,
Annual Coverage Report
05, Jan’2011
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Khalida Raffath Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited, is India’s leading retailer that operates
multiple retail formats in both the value and lifestyle segment of the
Khalida.raffath@yahoo.co.in Indian consumer market.
PRIL operates over 16 million square feet of retail space, has over 1000
CMP 378.20
stores across 73 cities in India and employs over 30,000 people.
Target Price 401.97
Upside 6.28% PRIL to invest capex of around 21 Cr. for the next 3 years and the fund
will be used for adding 15-million sq.ft. retail space into its portfolio by
2014.
Market Data
Sector Retail In the next 3 yrs The Govt. Of India will allow Foreign Direct
BSE 523574 Investments (FDI) in Multi-brand retail.
NSE PANTALOONR
PRIL board has approved rising up to Rs 750 Cr via Qualified
Reuters PART.BO
institutional placement (QIP).
Bloomberg PF@IN
ISIN Demat INE623B01027 PRIL intends to set up 155 Big Bazaar stores by 2014, raising its total
Face Value 2.00 network to 275 stores.
Book Value 146.68
52 week H/L 527.90-338.70 PRIL has transferred its value retail business to its wholly own
No. of shares o/s 19.61 Cr. subsidiary, Future Value Retail Ltd.
Beta 1.11
Market Cap.(Rs. Cr) 7416.50 Pantaloon retail merged the home solutions business of its subsidiary,
Avg. Volume 70985 Home Solutions Retail (India) Limited (HSRIL) with itself.
Sensex 19521.25
Free Foat (Cr.) 4358 The Company has recorded growth in both the top line as well as in
bottom line despite the transferring of value retail business operations.
Key Financials
Y/E June (Rs Cr) FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011E FY 2012E FY 2013P FY 2014P FY 2015P
Synopsis:
Revenues
Consolidated Total revenue for the year 2009-10 was reported to Rs 9913 Cr, as compared to Rs
7764.8 Cr in FY 2008-09, representing a growth percentage of 27.7% because of the improving
economic scenario and consumption growth. The home retail business, which was languishing
with an 11 per cent fall in revenues the previous year, saw 12 per cent growth in FY10. The
value retail business maintained a steady 9.5 per cent growth and Lifestyle business saw a 14%
growth from 6% growth last year. However the net sales fell by 3% from last year to continued
year of global economic crisis. So, while calculating the estimated sales I have decreased net
sales by 3% on y-o-y basis.
Expenses
Consolidated Cost of sales increased from FY 2008-09 Rs 7764.8 Cr to Rs 6682.84 Cr
representing a growth of 30.33%. Depreciation costs increased from Rs 206.57 Cr last year to Rs
278.32 Cr present year and it will continue to remain higher due to the further expansion of
stores. Interest & Financial charges outflow has increased from Rs 418.54 Cr in 2008-09 to Rs
493.38 Cr in 2009-10. The increase in interest and financial charges is on account of HSRIL
Merger impact and additional borrowing for funding the growth plans of the company and in
future it can be controlled by better working capital management. For calculating the estimated
expenses I have increase it by 0.50% y-o-y basis because to bring in new customers and
acquiring larger share the company adopts new approaches to understand customers and for
advertising strategies.
3 For Private Circulation
Profitability
The consolidated EBIDTA for FY 2009-10 is Rs 952.24 Cr, compared to Rs 609 Cr in FY 2008-09.
The consolidated PAT for FY 2009-10 is Rs 76.35 Cr, compared to a loss of Rs 7.46 Cr in FY 2008-
09. Profit after minority interest increased from Rs 10.07 Cr in FY 2008-09 to Rs 67.49 Cr in FY
2009-10, representing an increase of 570%. With the opening up of FDI, foreign players along
with new domestic players will enter in the near future, enhancing the modern retail market
which is currently 5%-7% penetrated, because of this the company will continue with an
upward trends in top-line as well as in bottom line in future also.
Forward Plans
(i) The company has planned to add around 2.5 million to 3.5 million square feet of
space during the forthcoming year and to maintain this pace for the next two to
three years.
(ii) The company has planned to complete the initiative of concentrating in pure
retail play and would be coming up with few more approvals to demerge / sale /
transfer the other non-retail non-core businesses.
(iii) Pantaloon also announced plans to raise money through the sale of shares or
convertible warrants for funding its expansion and diversification plans.
Valuation Methodology
DCF Valuation method has been used for arriving at the fair value of Pantaloon Retail India Pvt.
Ltd., as explained below:
Assumptions:
Risk Free Rate (Rf) of 8.1%, based on 10-year Government Bond Rate.
Market Return Rate (Rm) of 2.6%, based on Sensex returns of 18-years period
from Sep-1992 to Dec-2010 CAGR.
Based on above and using Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), I have arrived at a cost of Equity
of 14% and a WACC of 11.15%.
4 For Private Circulation
DCF Calculation
Rs in Crores 2011E 2012E 2013P 2014P 2015P
EBITDA 1166.93 1200.28 1815.53 2188.66 2203.00
EBIT 820.79 757.02 1263.93 1518.51 1364.12
(-) Cash Taxes @35% (287.28) (264.96) (442.38) (531.48) (477.44)
Tax Effected EBIT 533.51 492.07 821.56 987.03 886.68
(+) Depreciation & Amortization 346.14 443.25 551.60 670.15 838.88
(-) Capital Expenditure (700) (700) (700) (700) (700)
(+/-) Changes in net working Capital (795.87) (1079.81) (1353.86) (1327.03) (1785.28)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) (616.22) (844.49) (680.70) (369.85) (759.72)
WACC@ 11.15%
NPV of Unlevered FCF @ 11.15% (2423.92)
Financial Statement
EBITDA Margin 5.6% 7.8% 9.6% 9.5% 7.6% 9.2% 9.2% 7.4%
EBIT 208.28 402.43 673.91 820.79 757.02 1,263.93 1,518.51 1,364.12
% Growth 16.1% 93.2% 67.5% 21.8% (7.8)% 67.0% 20.1% (10.2)%
EBIT Margin 3.6% 5.2% 6.8% 6.7% 4.8% 6.4% 6.4% 4.6%
Net Income 21.93 10.07 67.49 206.64 92.04 315.96 378.19 187.76
#
% Growth (38.3)% (54.1)% 570.2% 206.2% (55.5)% 243.3% 19.7% (50.4)%
Net Income Margin 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 0.6%
Diluted EPS 1.45 0.63 3.44 10.54 4.69 16.11 19.29 9.57
Actual 2010
Rs %
Cash & Equivalents 286.45 – Total Debt / Total 89.8%
(Closing bal.) Capitalization
Total Debt / EBITDA 1.0x
Total Debt 660.79 0.6% Net Debt / EBITDA 0.7x
Financial Ratios
Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited
Financial Ratios
(All figures in crores, except per share data)
Actual Estimated Projected
Fiscal 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Price Multiple
P/E Ratio 60.47 10.99 35.89 80.58 23.47 19.16 39.50
Price-to- Cash Flow Ratio 10.00 7.79 6.36 6.18 4.09 3.39 3.37
Net Working Capital Ratio 0.42 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.34
Gross Profit Margin 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.34
Net Profit Margin 0.001 0.007 0.017 0.006 0.016 0.016 0.006
Return on Asset (ROA) 1.04 1.10 1.15 1.22 1.26 1.30 1.39
Return on Equity (ROE) 0.004 0.023 0.066 0.019 0.046 0.043 0.017
Return on Capital Employed 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.06
(ROCE)
Return on Investment (ROI) 0.50 0.75 0.80 0.58 0.77 0.76 0.55
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.63 3.44 10.54 4.69 16.11 19.29 9.57
Assets Turnover Ratio 1.04 1.10 1.15 1.22 1.26 1.30 1.39
Inventory Turnover Ratio 2.59 2.85 2.99 3.06 3.12 3.10 3.17
10 For Private Circulation
Debt to Equity Ratio 1.70 1.66 1.87 1.20 0.85 0.67 0.53
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.96 1.37 1.70 1.27 1.67 1.66 1.29
Market Value
Book value per share 155.42 146.68 160.31 250.30 351.28 447.14 569.07
Dividend Per share 0.60 0.80 0.80 0.84 0.88 0.93 0.97
Operating cash flow to sales 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.03
Growth Percentages
Total Operating Income 0.93 0.67 0.22 (0.08) 0.67 0.20 (0.10)
Dividend Payout Ratio 0.96 0.23 0.08 0.18 0.05 0.05 0.10
11 For Private Circulation
Graphs
Percent
Rs Cr.
20,000.00 40.0%
15,000.00 30.0%
10,000.00 20.0%
5,000.00 10.0%
- 0.0%
Year
Total Revene % Growth
10,000.00 34.5%
34.0%
8,000.00
Percentage
33.5%
Rs Cr.
6,000.00
33.0%
4,000.00
32.5%
2,000.00 32.0%
- 31.5%
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013P 2014P 2015P
Year
Gross Profit Gross Profit Margin
12 For Private Circulation
Percentage
2,000.00
Rs Cr.
8.0%
1,500.00
6.0%
1,000.00
4.0%
500.00 2.0%
- 0.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013P 2014P 2015P
Years
EBITDA EBITDA Margin
1,400.00 7.0%
Percentage
Rs Cr.
1,200.00 6.0%
1,000.00 5.0%
800.00 4.0%
600.00 3.0%
400.00 2.0%
200.00 1.0%
- 0.0%
Year
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013P 2014P 2015P
EBIT EBIT Margin
13 For Private Circulation
Percentage
250.00
1.0%
Rs Cr.
200.00
0.8%
150.00
0.6%
100.00 0.4%
50.00 0.2%
- 0.0%
Year
Net Income Net Income Margin
Company Overview
Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited, is India’s leading
retailer that operates multiple retail formats in both share holding Pattern (%)
the value and lifestyle segment of the Indian As on Sep'10
Entertainment
Lifestyle
Value Retailing Leisure &
retailing
Sports
Pantaloons Central Fashion Station ALL Mela Big Bazaar Food Bazaar
15 For Private Circulation
The Future
The retail industry in India is currently growing at a great pace and is expected to go up to US$
833 billion by the year 2013. It is further expected to reach US$ 1.3 trillion by the year 2018 at a
CAGR of 10%. As the country has got a high growth rates, the consumer spending has also gone
up and is also expected to go up further in the future. In the last four year, the consumer
spending in India climbed up to 75%. As a result, the India retail industry is expected to grow
further in the future days. By the year 2013, the organized sector is also expected to grow at a
CAGR of 40%.
Retail Space/Floor
400 300 400 600 1700
Staff
Investment Opinion
Pantaloon retail has a strong retail presence across India with 16 million retail space and it is
expected to grow by more 2.5 million to 3.5 million square feet of space during the forthcoming
year. The company enjoys a strategic advantage over its competitors in terms of its strategy to
focus on value retail, understanding of the consumer mindset, sourcing capabilities and
presence across all formats. I prefer the company because it has performed well in spite of the
tough economic conditions which have severely impacted its peers. PRIL is capable of enjoying
profits at the time when its competitors were reeling under sales and margin pressure. Thus, I
expect the company to grow further. Due to the correction in the stock markets, PRIL is
available at an attractive market price. Backed by its expansion plans and an improving Industry
conditions, I expect the stock to perform well in the coming years. I recommend an
“Accumulate” on the stock with a Target Price of Rs 401.97.
Disclaimer:
This document is solely for the personal information of the intended recipient and must not be
exceptionally used as the basis for any investment decision. Nothing in this document should
be construed as investment, Legal, taxation or financial advice. This report is not soliciting any
action based upon it. Each recipient of this document should make necessary investigations as
they consider important to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the
securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks
involved). This report has been made based on information that I consider reliable and are
publicly available but I do not state that it is accurate or complete and it should not be solely
relied upon such, as this document is for. I shall not be in any way held responsible for any loss
or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information
contained in this report. Accordingly, I cannot testify, nor make any representation or
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