EXPERIMENTAL GROUP

Total n= 100

Day At Risk # Deaths Censored Survived(n) P(t) S(t)

0 20 0 20 100.00% 100.00%
15 20 7 0 13 65.00% 65.00%
16 13 2 0 11 84.62% 55.00%
17 11 5 0 6 54.55% 30.00%
18 6 3 0 3 50.00% 15.00%
19 3 1 0 2 66.67% 10.0%
20 2 1 0 1 50.00% 5.00%
Matches with http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/survival01.html

Method 1: Median 95% CI = Simple method per:

http://www.graphpad.com/www/book/survive.htm

To draw Excel graph, added points below…

Time S(t) 95% Lower 95% Higher
0 100.00%
15 100.00%
15 95.00% 54.74% 74.09%
16 95.00% 54.74% 74.09%
16 84.67% 44.75% 64.86%
17 84.67% 44.75% 64.86%
17 68.60% 21.45% 40.11%
18 68.60% 21.45% 40.11%
MEDIAN CROSS ->> 18 46.11% 8.91% 23.85%
20 46.11% 8.91% 23.85%
20 15.77% 3.43% 15.00%

Median 95% CI
14 14-16

100.00%

90.00%
% Survival

80.00%

70.00%

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%
 90.00%

% Survival
80.00%

70.00%

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time
z 1.96
z^2 3.84

(same)
p = S(t) q=1-p num denom 95% Lower num denom

65.00% 35.00% 113.69 207.68 0.547444 153.87 207.68

55.00% 45.00% 92.95 207.68 0.447543 134.70 207.68
30.00% 70.00% 44.56 207.68 0.214543 83.29 207.68
15.00% 85.00% 18.51 207.68 0.089149 49.54 207.68
20.00% 80.00% 26.84 207.68 0.129248 61.13 207.68
7.50% 92.50% 7.13 207.68 0.034319 31.15 207.68

In this example below the median 95% CI range is about 19-33 months.

S
(
t
)
 S
(
t
)

20 25
95% Higher

0.740876
0.648572
0.401060
0.238531
0.294323
0.149981
 Sample
Values Value-mean (val-mean)^2
1.23 -0.04 0.001936
1.31 0.04 0.001296
1.41 0.14 0.018496
1.17 -0.10 0.010816
1.25 -0.02 0.000576

Sum 6.37 0.03312

Mean 1.27
SD (excel) 0.09099
SD (manual) 0.09099

Upper 95% CI 1.45

Lower 95% CI 1.10
time Censor? survival failure (not needed) survival SEfailed left (survival-1-0.5)/survival SE
0 1 0 0 0 7 #DIV/0!
10 Death 0.8571 0.1429 0.1323 1 6 2.6991685563114
15 Death 0.7143 0.2857 0.1707 2 5 1.2554188635032
23 Death 0.5714 0.4286 0.187 3 4 0.3818181818182
30 Death 0.4286 0.5714 0.187 4 3 -0.381818181818
35 Death 0.2857 0.7143 0.1707 5 2 -1.255418863503
52 Death 0.1429 0.8571 0.1323 6 1 -2.699168556311
100 Alive . . . 6 0

Median is 30 since it has the first survival % that is strictly less than 50%
Steps to constructing the confidence interval: Brookmeyer and Crowley 1982 method by SAS 9.2
1) Set up the survival table with columns Survival, and SurvivalSE
2) Add two more columns: (Survival-1+0.5)/SurvivalSE and "Is abs(previous col) < 1.96?"
3) Evaluate the (survival-1+0.5)/SE column
4) Do the logic check for whether the abs of that column is less than 1.96
5) The lowest value in the new column in which you answer Yes is the lower bound for the median - in this case, it's
6) The highest value in the new column in which you answer Yes is NOT the upper bound for the median - it's the v

MEDIAN: 30
95% CI FOR MEDIAN: 15 to 52
l-1-0.5)/survival SE is abs(col H) < 1.96?

No, |2.7| is not < 1.96

Yes, |1.255| < 1.96 <-- pick this as lower bound
Yes
Yes
Yes <-- pick the one after this as upper bound
No <-- upper bound

he median - in this case, it's 15

nd for the median - it's the value one larger than that; in this case, it's 52
Time Survival Survival SE (survival-1+0.5)/survival SE is |Col D| < 1.96? Median: 183 (95% CI 115 to 390)
48 0.8667 0.0507 7.232741617357 No
63 0.8444 0.054 6.37777777777778 No
64 0.8222 0.057 5.65263157894737 No
74 0.8 0.0596 5.03355704697987 No
76 0.7778 0.062 4.48064516129032 No
80 0.7556 0.0641 3.98751950078003 No
84 0.7333 0.0659 3.5402124430956 No
93 0.7111 0.0676 3.12278106508876 No
100 0.6889 0.069 2.73768115942029 No
105 0.6667 0.0703 2.37126600284495 No
113 0.6444 0.0714 2.02240896358543 No
115 0.6222 0.0723 1.69017980636238 Yes <-- here's your lower CI bound: 115
120 0.6 0.073 1.36986301369863 Yes
157 0.5778 0.0736 1.0570652173913 Yes
162 0.5556 0.0741 0.750337381916329 Yes
164 0.5333 0.0744 0.44758064516129 Yes
168 0.5111 0.0745 0.148993288590604 Yes
183 0.4889 0.0745 -0.148993288590604 Yes
242 0.4667 0.0744 -0.44758064516129 Yes
268 0.4444 0.0741 -0.750337381916329 Yes
273 0.4222 0.0736 -1.0570652173913 Yes
318 0.4 0.073 -1.36986301369863 Yes
363 0.3778 0.0723 -1.69017980636238 Yes <-- observation after this one is your upper CI
390 0.3556 0.0714 -2.02240896358543 No Here's your upper CI bound: 390
422 0.3333 0.0703 -2.37126600284495 No
456 0.3111 0.069 -2.73768115942029 No
467 0.2889 0.0676 -3.12278106508876 No
625 0.2667 0.0659 -3.5402124430956 No
83 (95% CI 115 to 390)

CI bound: 115

his one is your upper CI bound

bound: 390
 Survival Survival SE (survival-1+0.5)/survival SE is |Col D| < 1.96?
1 0.9737 0.026 18.2192307692308 No
55 0.9474 0.0362 12.3591160220994 No
74 0.9211 0.0437 9.63615560640732 No
86 0.8947 0.0498 7.92570281124498 No
104 0.8684 0.0548 6.72262773722628 No
107 0.8421 0.0592 5.77871621621622 No
109 0.8158 0.0629 5.02066772655008 No
110 0.7895 0.0661 4.37972768532526 No
122 . .
122 0.7368 0.0714 3.31652661064426 No
129 0.7105 0.0736 2.86005434782609 No
172 0.6842 0.0754 2.44297082228117 No
192 0.6579 0.077 2.05064935064935 No
194 0.6316 0.0783 1.68071519795658 Yes
226* . .
230 0.6041 0.0795 1.30943396226415 Yes
276 0.5767 0.0805 0.952795031055901 Yes
332 0.5492 0.0812 0.605911330049261 Yes
383 0.5217 0.0817 0.265605875152999 Yes
418 0.4943 0.0819 -0.06959706959707 Yes
466 0.4668 0.0818 -0.405867970660147 Yes
487 0.4394 0.0815 -0.743558282208589 Yes
526 0.4119 0.0809 -1.08899876390606 Yes
530* . .
609 0.3825 0.0803 -1.46326276463263 Yes
662 0.3531 0.0793 -1.85245901639344 Yes
996* . .
1111* . .
1167* . .
1182* . .
*censored Report: Median 418 (95% C
is |Col D| < 1.96?

<-- median lower bound

<-- next "No" after this is your upper bound, but there isn't one!

Report: Median 418 (95% CI: 194 to NA)