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term, he argues, if success is achieved ASEAN has a great deal to gain. While there
are limits to the role of the ASEAN Chair, the forthcoming ASEAN meeting will
provide the opportunity for renewed diplomatic intervention. Note too that the UN
Secretary General has intervened and this will add legitimacy to the role of ASEAN.
Q5. Do you think a coup in Thailand this year is a realistic possibility, and do you
think that this conflict could be used as a pretext?
ANSWER: I would never rule out the possibility of a military coup in Thailand as the
events of September 2006 demonstrated. Thailand had gone for fourteen years
without military intervention. The Thai military is probably enjoying speculation
about a coup because these rumours will only strengthen it hand. Already the Prime
Minister has had to give public support to the military in its handling of the border
dispute.