Hold’em: Understanding the Math behind the Game

Introduction
If you’re amoung the many people who lack a math gene and quake at the thought of
having to do math to learn poker, fear not; you don’t need to be a math whiz to understand the
game. All you need is some common sense, a basic understanding of the concepts underlying
poker math and the ability to apply those concepts at the tables.

These notes are basically conversations I’ve had with myself in an attempt to explain the basic
math concepts behind Texas Hold’em, why the concepts are important to playing winning poker
and when they need to be applied. I’m not a math whiz so don’t expect any long, involved
explanations of why the math works; if you’re looking for that try Brian Alpach’s pages, Wikipedia:
Poker Probability or MathWorld.

The following assumes you are familiar with Texas Hold’em and know the structure of the game.
If you’re totally new to the game and have no idea what Limit, Blinds, Flop or Position refer to you
1
may want to read some introductory material before proceeding.

1
Basic introductions to the game can be found at http://www.gamblingpress.com/casino-games/poker/texas-
holdem-rules.htm or http://www.ultimatebet.com/rules-strategy/texas-holdem.html

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Why Any Two Cards Won’t Do!

If you’ve watched poker on TV you’re probably familiar with the Hold’em saying ”Any two cards
can win!”. Theoretically, that’s true. Any two pocket cards can end up making the winning hand.
If, however, you follow this strategy you will soon go broke!

Let’s say you’re playing a standard Limit $1/$2 game; there are 10 players at the table. What is
2
your fair share of winning hands?

If the game is played with all cards face up and the winner is determined solely by who has the
best hand once all the cards are dealt, over the long run, you can expect to win 10% of the hands
dealt or one of every 10 hands dealt.

Of course, your wins are not likely to be evenly spread. You may lose 30, 100, 1000 hands in a
row or you may win 30, 100 or 1000 hands in a row. However, at the end of the day, after playing
thousands of hands, the number you win will be close to, if not exactly, 10% of all the hands
you’re dealt. And the same will hold true for every other player at the table

What happens if you and all the other players must make a bet on every hand? If you play 10,000
hands and make a $1 bet on each hand, the cost of playing is $10,000. Trouble is, you will only
win 10% of those hands. Is there a profit in this?

Each time you win you receive $10: $1 from each of the other 9 players plus your $1 original bet.
That works out to 1,000 hands (10,000 x 10%) where you win $10. 1,000 x $10 equals, you
guessed it, $10,000. Exactly the amount you spent to play the game. You break even! That’s no
fun. Who wants to spend all that time playing 10,000 hands only to break even?

What if you are allowed to decide when you will bet but all the other players must continue to bet
$1 on every hand? Let’s say you decide to make a bet only when you are dealt pocket rockets:
AA. Will you make a profit then?

First, you need to know how many times you can expect to be dealt AA. Luckily, this has already
been worked out for us. Mike Caro has posted the information in his The Probability of Being
Dealt Specific Hold’em Hands Before the Flop table. Turns out your chances of being dealt a pair
of Aces (or any pair, for that matter) are 0.45% or 220:1. Which means that for every 221 hands
dealt to you, one of those hands will be a pair of Aces.

So, if you play 10,000 games you can expect to get pocket Aces 45 times (10,000 / 221 or 10,000
x 0.45%). Assuming you bet $1 every time you are dealt pocket Aces and assuming you win with
those Aces every time, the game would now only cost you $45.00. How much would you win?

Well, if all the other players were still betting $1 every hand then you would expect to win 10 bets
on every hand you bet. That’s $1 from each of the other 9 players in the game plus your original
$1 bet, which you would get back. So, you’d win $450 ($10 x 45) for a net profit of $405 ($450 -
$45). Now, instead of breaking even after 10,000 hands you’d actually be up $360. Nice!

Notice that we are winners in this scenario not because we are great poker players but because
our opponents were forced to bet every hand!

Let’s modify our example slightly. Suppose we continue to bet $1 only when we are dealt Aces
and our opponents are forced to bet only half their hands instead of every hand. How does that
change our winnings? Ten thousand hands will still cost us $45. And, assuming our Aces always

2
For more on the concept of fair share hands see More Hold’Em Excellence: A Winner for Life by Lou
Krieger, ConjelCo, PA

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hold up, we will now win $5 x 45 or $225. We win less but we still win considerably more than we
bet.

Of course, that’s not what happens in the real world, no one forces our opponents to bet every
hand. Nor is there only one betting round, there are four. But what also happens in the real world
is that our opponents not only (a) play too many hands, they also, (b) stay with them when there
is little chance their hand will win by the river. The net result is they cannot even hope to break
even, instead they simply lose money. We can win if

1. We choose only to play hands that have a positive expectation (good chance of winning),
and,

2. We play against people who play too many hands and who continue to play when their
hands have a negative expectation (when they can’t possibly win)

Which begs the question Which hands have a positive expectation?

To choose winning hands we need to understand what a winning five card hand is. In other
words, we need to understand the poker Hand Rankings.

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Hand Rankings
Most of us learned the hand rankings as children:

Royal Flush
Straight Flush
4 of a Kind
Full House
Flush
Straight
3 of a Kind
Two Pair
One Pair
High Card

What we may not know is just why the hands are ranked in the above order. Why is a Royal
3
Flush the best hand in poker? Why does a straight beat three of a kind?
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The following table shows the number of ways each five card hand can be made when dealt
from a 52 card deck.

Hand 5 Cards Dealt % 7 Cards Dealt %

Straight Flush 40 0.0015% 41,584 0.0311%
4 of a Kind 624 0.0240% 224,848 0.1681%
Full House 3,744 0.1441% 3,473,184 2.5961%
Flush 5,108 0.1965% 4,047,644 3.0255%
Straight 10,200 0.3925% 6,180,020 4.6194%
3 of a Kind 54,912 2.1128% 6,461,620 4.8299%
Two Pair 123,552 4.7539% 31,433,400 23.4955%
One Pair 1,098,240 42.2569% 58,627,800 43.8225%
High Card 1,302,540 50.1177% 23,294,460 17.4119%
Total 2,598,960 133,784,560

For the most part, the hands are ranked strictly according to how often they might be dealt; the
rarer the hand, the higher the ranking.

Note that there is a slight anomaly when choosing the best five cards from seven cards; you are
more likely to get one pair (43.8%) or two pair (23.5%) than you are to get a high card hand
(17.4%); yet a pair or two pair still beats a high card! Brian Alspach explains why the pair hands
are ranked higher:

“…you are basing the ranking on 5 cards so that if you were to rank a high card
hand higher than a hand with a single pair, people would choose to ignore the
pair in a 7-card hand with a single pair and call it a high card hand. This would
have the effect of creating the following distortion. There are 81,922,260 7-card
hands in the last two categories containing 5 cards which are high card hands. Of
these 81,922,260 hands, 58,627,800 also contain 5-card hands which have a
pair. Thus, the latter hands are more special and should be ranked higher (as
they indeed are)”

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You may notice the table does not include the probability of a Royal Flush. That’s because it is essentially
a straight flush. In fact, there are 4,324 ways to make a Royal Flush or a 0.00323% chance you will be dealt
one when 7 cards are dealt.
4
The table is taken from http://www.rgpfaq.com/ranking-why-general.html For an explanation of the actual
math involved to create the table see http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp20/

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By which I think he means that all the one pair hands also include the high card hands.
Essentially there are 81,922,260 ways you can be dealt a high card hand (58,627,800 +
23,294,460). As there are 81.9k ways to make a high card and only 58.6k ways to make one pair,
the one pair hand is rarer and thus deserves to be ranked higher (this also explains why I’ve been
losing with my high card hands…there’s a combined 67.3% chance someone will have one or two
pair by the river and only a 17.4% chance my high card will be good. Had I only known this
earlier!).

Besides the mathematical probability involved in ranking hands there is also an arbitrary element.
At some point in the past people agreed that an Ace beats a King, a King beats a Queen, a
Queen beats a Jack, and so on. How they arrived at this high card scheme is not known. It’s not
based on any mathematical premise as there are the same number of Aces as there are Kings,
Queens, Sevens, Two’s or any other card in the deck. But it turns out that this arbitrary ranking
scheme is crucial in deciding which hand actually wins.

Regardless of the type of hand dealt: flush, straight, 3 of a kind, pair it is the hand with the highest
ranking card that wins! Three King’s beats three 7’s; a pair of 9’s beats a pair of 8’s; a straight to
the Jack beats a straight to the 6, etc.

There are two other factors to be considered in determining a hands rank: suitedness and
connectedness. These are based on mathematical theory. You are less likely to be dealt five
cards all in the same suit (3.02%) than you are to be dealt five connected (4.6%) cards.
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These three hand attributes :

1. High Card Value

2. Suitedness
3. Connectedness

must all be taken into account when deciding which hands we will play. And, as Gary Carson
points out on p.145 of The Complete Book of Hold’Em Poker

“The really powerful starting hands have multiple ways to win.”

Before we can jump into weighing starting hands we need to understand the math behind the
various starting hand guidelines.

5
Ed Miller discusses the value of these attributes on p.57 of Small Stakes Hold’em

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Probability and Odds

Nearly every poker book advises you to only play or continue with a hand if it has a positive
expectation. Which means we should only play or continue with a hand if it has a reasonable
chance to be the best or winning hand. Why? Because it’s foolish to play or continue with a hand
when we can only hope to lose!

Probability is the chance of a favourable outcome. Odds are probabilities re-stated as a ratio of
unfavourable to favourable outcomes.

For example, a coin flip can have one of two outcomes; the flip can result in the coin landing
heads-up or tails-up. If heads-up is considered to be the favourable outcome, we would say there
is a 50% chance (probability) that a coin will land heads-up when it’s flipped or we could say the
odds against a coin landing heads-up are 1:1. The odds are a ratio of one unfavourable outcome
(tails) to one favourable outcome (heads) given a universe of only two (1 + 1) possible
outcomes.

Since probability and odds are simply two different ways of expressing the same concept; you
can convert probability to odds and vice versa. There are two formulas that can be used to
convert probability to odds:

(100 – probability) / probability , and

(1 / probability) – 1

The first formula treats the probability as a percentage; the second formula treats the probability
as a fraction. Both formulas produce the same result – just use whichever is easier for you.

For example, to convert our coin flip probability of 50%.

(100 – 50) / 50 = 1 or 1:1 odds

(1 / .5 ) - 1 = 1 or 1:1 odds

Assume you want to convert a 33% probability to odds.

(100 – 33) / 33 = 2.03 or 2:1 odds

( 1 / .33) - 1 = 2.03 or 2:1 odds

2:1 odds means we can expect 2 unfavourable outcomes to every favourable outcome for every
three (2+1) trials (attempts).

Note that the number of trials are implicit in the odds statements; if we add the two odd numbers
together we get the number of trials.

When using probability, all possible trials are represented by 100% (if we are using percentages)
or 1 (if we are using fractions). In other words, with odds, we are told how many trials are needed:
1:1, 2 trials; 2:1, 3 trials.

With probability we aren’t given the exact number of trials. Instead, probability represents the
portion of favourable outcomes with respect to all trials. Such that a 50% probability means ½ of
all the trials will be favourable, 33% probability means 1/3 of all the trials will be favourable, 25%
probability means ¼ of all the trials will be favourable and so on. Of course, the number of trials
is actually implicit since 50% = ½ implying 2 trials, 33% = 1/3, implying 3 trials, etc. It’s just not as
obvious at first glance.

To convert odds to probability rewrite the odds as a fraction and divide. For example,

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1:1 = 1 / (1+1) = 1 / 2 = 50%

3:1 = 1 / (3+1) = 1 / 4 = 25%
2:1 = 1 / (2+1) 1 / 3 = 33%

What about odds like 5:2 or 4:3? Same thing.

5:2 = 2 / (5 + 2) = 2 / 7 = 28.57%
4:3 = 3 / (4 + 3) = 3 / 7 = 42.85%

To check whether you’ve done it correctly, convert your result back to odds.

(100 – 28.57) / 28.57 = 2.5 : 1 or 5:2

(100 – 42.85) / 42.85 = 1.3 :1 or 4:3

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Combinations and Permutations

Ok, we know we need to understand probability and odds but how do we know what the
probability or odds are for a given hand? What are my chances of being dealt AA? Or flopping a
flush draw? Or making my straight on the turn? How do I figure it out?

Whenever we want to know what the odds of being dealt a particular starting hand, or flopping a
particular hand, or making a hand on the turn or river are we need to determine how the cards in
a standard deck can be combined or chosen from the available cards.

A standard deck of cards represents a limited, structured universe of objects. There are:

13 ranks (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King, Ace), and

4 suits (Hearts, Clubs, Diamonds, Spades)

Every card has a suit value and a rank value. 13 x 4 = 52 cards.

Lets start with the simple stuff.

Number of unique two card combinations

To find the number of unique two card combinations in a standard deck, consider:

There are 13 distinct ranks (Ace through 2).

We are interested in two card combinations where both cards can be any 1 of 13 distinct ranks.
13 distinct cards can be combined 13 ways

13 x 13 = 169.

Therefore, there are a total of 169 unique 2 card combinations in a deck of 52 cards.

Which is why, if you have PokerTracker, you may have noticed, on the General Tab beside
Known Starting Hands, xx,xxx Hands – 169 Unique Hands. If you list out all the card
combinations, without regard to suit values, you’ll get 169 combinations.

A K Q J T 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
AA AK AQ AJ AT A9 A8 A7 A6 A5 A4 A3 A2
AK KK KQ KJ KT K9 K8 K7 K6 K5 K4 K3 K2
AQ KQ QQ QJ QT Q9 Q8 Q7 Q6 Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2
AJ KJ QJ JJ JT J9 J8 J7 J6 J5 J4 J3 J2
AT KT QT JT TT T9 T8 T7 T6 T5 T4 T3 T2
A9 K9 Q9 J9 T9 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92
A8 K8 Q8 J8 T8 98 88 87 86 85 84 83 82
A7 K7 Q7 J7 T7 97 87 77 76 75 74 73 72
A6 K6 Q6 J6 T6 96 86 76 66 65 64 63 62
A5 K5 Q5 J5 T5 95 85 75 65 55 54 53 52
A4 K4 Q4 J4 T4 94 84 74 64 54 44 43 42
A3 K3 Q3 J3 T3 93 83 73 63 53 43 33 32
A2 K2 Q2 J2 T0 92 82 72 62 52 42 32 22

If you count up all the combinations you’ll arrive at 169.

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Distinct Two Card Combinations

When determining how many unique 2 card combinations there were, we did not consider the suit
value of the cards. We assumed that any combination of AK was equal to any other combination
of AK and any combination of 5,3 was equal to any other combination of 5,3. In reality, this is not
true. The suit value of the cards does make a difference. We are not choosing 2 cards from 13
cards. We are choosing 2 cards from 52 cards (13 ranks x 4 suits).

Mathematically, this is expressed as:

C(52,2), where C = choose, 52 = all the available cards and 2 = the number of cards to
be chosen

And it can be expanded to:

C(52,2) = 52! / [ 2! (52-2)! ] where ! = factorial.

A factorial is the product of all the positive integers from 1 to a given number. So 2! = 1 x
2. 52! = 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 … x 50 x 51 x 52.

Don’t worry, it looks more complicated than it really is. You don’t really have to multiply all 52
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numbers! Since there’s only two cards being chosen, C(52,2) can be reduced to:

C(52,2) = (52 x 51) / (2 x 1) = 2,652 / 2 = 1,326

Therefore, when we consider the suit value of the cards, there are 1,326 possible 2 card starting
hands.

Why can’t we just multiply 52 x 52 for 2,704 2 card starting hands?

Multiplying 52 x 52 gives the number of ways you can combine the cards assuming you are
always free to pick and chose the cards you want to combine. But that’s not true with starting
hands, 1 card is removed, it has become distinct from the rest of the cards. It can only be
combined with a card pulled from the remaining deck. In effect you start with 52 cards, you pull
one, leaving 51 cards. You now pull 1 from 51. If you want another distinct two cards you pull 1
from 50, then 1 from 49, and so on. As you continue to pull two card hands the deck slowly
decreases until there are only 2 cards left. The Choose formula summarizes this behaviour into a
nice, neat formula.

How many ways can you choose a pair?

Let’s say we want to know how many ways there are to make any pair; AA for example.

We know there are four Aces in the deck: A A A A . How many ways can you chose 2 of
these?

C(4,2) = (4 x 3) / (2 x 1) = 12 / 2 = 6.

There are 6 ways we can make a pair. This is fairly simple to prove. Here are all the possible
ways four Aces can be combined:

6
See http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56106.html for an explanation of why this is so.

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A A A A A A
A A A A
A A

Note that any pair can be made 6 ways; not just Aces.

How many ways can you choose any two specific cards?

Let’s say you want to know how many ways you can choose Ace, King.

There are 4 Aces and 4 Kings which can be combined with each other any way, suited or
unsuited. Answer: C(4,1) x C(4,1) = 4 x 4 = 16.

As with unique hands, we don’t care about the suit values of the cards. All we care about is the
number of Ace, King hands that can be created. And it’s easy to show that 16 is the correct
answer.

A K A K A K A K
A K A K A K A K
A K A K A K A K
A K A K A K A K

Count them up and there are 16 possible combinations. And once again, this is true for any
known two card combination, not just Ace, King.

How many ways can you choose two specific suited cards?

Let’s say you want to know how many ways you can choose a suited Ace, King.

There are 4 suits and only one Ace and one King in each suit, so what we are really doing is
choosing 1 suit out of four.

C(4,1) = (4 x 1) / (1 x 1) = 4 / 1 = 4

And once again, it’s easy to prove. These are the only available suited Ace, King combinations.

A K A K A K A K

How many ways can you choose two specific unsuited cards?

Let’s say you want to know how many ways you can choose an unsuited Ace, King.

We are choosing one Ace from 4 and one King from 3, since we don’t want to choose a King with
the same suit as the Ace.

C(4,1) x C(3,1) = 4 x [ (3x1) / (1x1) ] = 4 x 3 = 12

Which makes sense since we said there were 16 Ace,King combinations, 4 of which are suited.
16 – 4 leaves 12 unsuited combinations.

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Combinations and the probability of getting a specific starting hand

What does all this have to do with knowing the odds you’ll be dealt a particular 2 card starting
hand?

Well, you now know how many possible starting hands there are ( 1,326 ) and how many ways
you can make a pair, two distinct cards or two distinct suited cards. Given that knowledge you
can work out the probability. Just divide the ways you can make the hand by the number of
possible starting hands.

For example, if you want to know the chances of being dealt a pair of Aces:

6 ways / 1,326 = .45%

Or to get the odds, divide the possible starting hands by the ways you can make the hand.

1,326 / 6 ways = 221 (220:1) or 1/221 = 0.45%

What about the odds you’ll be dealt any big pair?

There are 5 big pairs: TT JJ QQ KK AA

Each pair can be made 6 ways: 5 x 6 = 30
1,326 / 30 = 44.2 (43.2:1) or 1/44.2 = 2.26% chance you’ll be dealt a big pair

Or any pair?

There are 13 pairs: 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 TT JJ QQ KK AA

Each pair can be made 6 ways: 13 x 6 = 78
1,326 / 78 = 17 (16:1) or 1/17 = 5.88% chance you’ll be dealt any pair

What about any Ace, King combination?

There are 16 ways to make any specific two card combinations.

1,326 / 16 = 82.875 (81.875:1) or 1/82.875 = 1.21%

Or a suited Ace,King?

There are 4 ways to make a specific suited two card combination.

1,326 / 4 = 331.5 (330.5:1) or 1/331.5 = 0.30%

What about any two suited cards, if I don’t care what they are?

There are 13 ranks and you want to choose 2 cards in the.

C(13,2) = (13 x 12) / (2 x 1) = 78

There are 4 suits, giving 4 possible suited hands for each 2 card choices.
4 x 78 = 312

1,326 / 312 = 4.25 (3.25:1) or 1 / 4.25 = 23.52% chance you’ll get two suited cards.

What about any big card combination?

There are 5 big card combinations: AK AQ AJ AT KQ

Each can be made 16 ways: 5 x 16 = 80
1,326 / 80 = 16.58 (15.58:1) or 1/16.58 = 6.03% chance of getting a big combination.

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And any suited big card combination?

There are 5 big two card combinations.

Each suited combination can be made 4 ways: 5 x 4 = 20
1,326 / 20 = 66.3 (65.3:1) or 1/66.3 = 1.5% chance you’ll get a big, suited hand.

That’s fine if I’m the only person being dealt to but what about the 6, 8 or 9 other players at the
table? Won’t my odds of getting a specific hand change?

Nope. It’s true that we aren’t only dealing out 2 cards however you need to remember that odds
and probabilites are only best guesses. We have absolutely no idea what cards the other players
are receiving. Sure, we could guess that at least one Ace or two Kings have been dealt but we
don’t know that’s true. If we make those assumptions we will be piling up uncertainties, biasing
our guess either for or against specific hands. Why add bias? The minute we start assuming what
cards are in or out of the deck we favour certain combinations over others. If we only begin with
what we know at least all the uncertainties are equally balanced; we are not favouring one hand
combination over another.

How can this help us at the table?

It won’t, unless you’ve done some ground work, away from the table. Well, that’s not completely
true. If you’re heads up with KK you’ll know the odds are slim someone else will have KK or AK.
Why? Because you now know only 2 Kings were left in the the deck. There is only 1 way
someone else could make KK and only 8 ways (4 Aces x 2 Kings) someone else could make AK.
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That’s 1,314 / 9 (8+1) = 146 (145:1) or 1/146 = 0.68% chance someone else has one of those
hands. Add 0.68% to the 0.45% someone has AA and there’s only a 1.13% chance our opponent
has a better hand.

But most of us couldn’t work that out in the 30 seconds we’ll have at the table. Which is why
knowing this stuff is really only useful if you work a lot of it out away from the table and file it away
in your memory for future reference. What it does really help with is figuring out what all those
VP$IP and PFR% numbers represent.

7
1,326 starting hands minus 6 ways for the KK we already made and 8 (16-8) ways to make AK which are
no longer possible.

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PFR and VP$IP %’s

Let’s say you’re using GT+ or PokerAce at the table and someone just raised. You can see there
PFR% is 8%. What hands are they probably raising?

If you’ve done some homework you’ll know he’s most likely raising a big pair or a big card
combination. Why?

Big Pairs: AA KK QQ JJ TT = 5 x 6 ways = 30 hands

Big Cards: AK AQ AJ AT KQ = 5 x 16 ways = 80 hands
(30 + 80) / 1,326 = 8.3% PFR

What if their PFR% is 3%? Then they are probably only raising AA, KK, QQ and suited big cards.

Big Pairs: AA, KK, QQ = 3 x 6 ways = 18 hands

Big Suited: AK AQ AJ AT KQ = 5 x 4 ways = 20 hands
(18 + 20) / 1,326 = 2.9% PFR

Of course, you won’t know that for sure but if you haven’t seen any of their raising hands, it’s a
safe assumption. After awhile you may discover that the opponent with the 2.9% PFR is randomly
raising junk and not good hands at all. Or that the player with the 8% PFR also raises any suited
Ace. But if you don’t know that ahead of time using what you do know about the most likely
raising hands for someone with either PFR%’s can help you decide whether or not play you’re A,J
off-suit or pair of 77’s.

Another useful exercise is to work out what the various VP$IP’s represent. For example, the
common consensus is that a good player, in a full-ring game, will have a VP$IP of approximately
17%. Where does that number come from? Those playing big and medim pairs, big cards and
suited connectors.

Big Pairs >= 77: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77 = 8 x 6 = 48 Hands
2 Cards > T: AK AQ AJ AT KQ KJ KT QJ QT JT = 10 x 16 = 160 Hands
Suited Connectors: T9 98 87 76 65 = 5 x 4 = 20 Hands
(48 + 160 + 20) / 1,326 = 228 / 1,326 = 17.2% VP$IP

What if we add in all connectors and all pairs?

Connectors: 54 43 32 = 3 x 16 = 48 Hands
Unsuited Connectors: T9 98 87 76 65 = 5 x 12 = 60 Hands
Low Pairs: 66 55 44 33 22 = 5 x 6 = 30 Hands
(228 + 48 + 60 + 30) / 1,326 = 366 / 1,326 = 27.6% VP$IP

What if they pay attention to position, adding hands as their position improves?

Let’s work out the number of hands they might play from MP and LP and add them to the 228
hands we worked out for the 17.2% VP$IP.

From MP:
Pairs: 66 55 = 2 x 6 ways = 12 Hands
Suited Aces: A9 A8 A7 A6 = 4 x 4 ways = 16 Hands
Suited Other: K9 Q9 Q8 J8 T8 98 = 6 x 4 ways = 20 Hands
Unsuited: KT QJ QT JT = 4 x 12 = 48 Hands
Total: 96 Hands played 2/3’s of the time = 64 Hands

From LP:
Pairs: 44 33 22 = 3 x 6 ways = 18 Hands

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 Hold’em: Understanding the Math behind the Game

Suited: A5 A4 A3 A2 K8 K7 K6 K5 K4 K3 K2
J7 T7 97 96 87 76 76 75 65 54 = 21 x 4 ways = 84 Hands
Unsuited: A9 A8 A7 K9 Q9 J9 J8 T9 T8 98 97 87 = 12 x 12 ways = 144 Hands
Total: 246 Hands played 1/3 of the time = 48 Hands

Altogether:
(228 + 64 + 48) / 1,326 = 340 / 1,326 = 25.64% VP$IP

Which means anyone with a VP$IP greater than 26% is either playing all the usual hands from
any position or playing a lot of other hands.

One interesting exercise you Group Ways Possible Group % Cumulative %

might try is to take Sklansky’s Hands
Hand Group chart and work out
the percentages for each group 1 4x6 24
and their cumulative percentages.
1 x 16 16 3.0% 3.0%
I can’t show the cards in each
group (he’s touchy about them 2 1x6 6
being posted) but here are the 3x4 12
percentages.
1 x 16 16 2.6% 5.6%
3 1x6 6
You can see that someone playing
4x4 12
all groups with no regard to
position will have a VP$IP of at 1 x 16 16 2.9% 8.5%
least 50%. 4 1x6 6
5x4 20
2 x 16 32 5.0% 13.5%
5 1x6 6
8x4 32
6x4 24
3 x 16 48 9.8% 23.3%
6 2x6 12
5x4 20
3 x 16 48 6.0% 29.3%
7 3x6 18
7x4 28
5x4 20
3 x 16 48 8.3% 37.6%
8 6x4 24
9 x 16 96 12.7% 50.3%

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 Hold’em: Understanding the Math behind the Game

Starting Hands based on Expected Value (EV)

The PokerRoom site lists each starting hand by the number of big bets per hand it has averaged
on all their tables. A quick look at the tables shows that only 40 starting hands have an overall
positive expectation (+EV).

These hands breakdown as follows:

Pairs AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 10 x 6 ways 60 Hands

Suited AK AQ AJ AT A9 A8 A7 A6 A5 A4 A3 22 x 4 ways 88 Hands
KQ KJ KT K9
QJ QT Q9
JT J9
T9
Unsuited AK AQ AJ AT 8 x 12 ways 96 Hands
KQ KJ KT
QJ

That’s a total of 244 Hands / 1,326 possible starting hands = 18.4% VP$IP.

You can also see the stats by position for full-ring or 6 handed games.

For a 6 handed game, the following hands are +EV in any position or all but 1 position:

Pairs AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 (77) 8 x 6 ways 48 Hands

Suited AK AQ AJ AT A9 (A8) A7 16 x 4 ways 64 Hands
KQ KJ KT (K9)
QJ QT (Q9)
(JT)
(T9)
Unsuited AK AQ AJ (AT) 7 x 12 ways 84 Hands
KQ (KJ) (KT)

That’s a total of 196 Hands / 1,326 Hands = 14.5% VP$IP

Contrary to common belief, loosening up in 6-max games may not be the wisest thing to do.
There is a noticeable drop-off in suited Ax hands (presumably because the pots are not big
enough to justify drawing to a flush). Pairs smaller than seven don’t fare well either. In fact, you’d
do better to add big unsuited cards rather than small pairs, suited Aces or suited Kings.

Although, considering the aggression you can run into at 6-max, playing this tight would be
inviting trouble. Suggestions for other positions (use entirely at own risk):

Suited Ax in SB: A6 A5 A4 A3 A2 = 5 x 4 = 20 Hands

Unsuited Ax in SB: A9 A8 A7 = 3 x 12= 36 Hands

Pairs from Button: 66 55 44 33 22 = 5 x 6 = 30 Hands

Suited from Button: K8 K7 K6 = 3 x 4 = 12 Hands
Q8 J9 98 = 3 x 4 = 12 Hands
Unsuited from Button: QJ QT = 2 x 12= 24 Hands

That’s another 56 hands from the SB and 78 Hands played from the Button.

134 / 1,326 = 10% + 14.5% = 24.5% VP$IP

Jane Griscti Page 15 10/01/2005

 Hold’em: Understanding the Math behind the Game

Flop Math
Ok, you’ve settled on which starting hand you’re going to play, bets have been made and you
want to know what the chances are of the flop hitting your hand.

First, how many cards will help your hand improve and how many won’t or how many outs do you
have? For example, if you hold AK and you want to know what the odds are of making a pair,
consider:

When dealing the flop, there are 50 unknown cards, we remove 1 and there are 49
unknown cards, we remove 1 more and there are 48 unknown cards.

There are six flops that will give you one pair and only one pair:

Axx xAx xxA

3/50 x 46/49 x 45/48 = 6,210 / 117,600 = 0.052806122

47/50 x 3/49 x 45/48 = 6,345 / 117,600 = 0.053954081
47/50 x 46/49 x 3/48 = 6,486 / 117,600 = 0.055153061

Add the probabilities together:

0.052806122 + 0.053954081 + 0.055153061 = 0.161913264

Multiply by 2 as you can pair either card

0.161913264 x 2 = 0.323826528

for a probability of 32.38%

or (100 – 32.38) / 32.38 = 2.08 : 1 odds against pairing one of your cards

Note that doesn’t take into account the board pairing.

Now you shouldn’t be so surprised when one of the fish who called your AK raise with Ax beats
you at showdown because he hit a pair of 5’s with his A5o and you missed your King and Ace. If
two such players call you they have a combined 65% chance to hit at least one pair.

Let’s say you have a pocket pair, what are the odds you’ll flop a set?

There are 3 ways you flop a set (assume you are holding 99):

9xx x9x xx9

There are only two cards that will give you a set and when 1 of them hits the flop we
assume the other one will not come out.

2/50 x 48/49 x 47/48 = 4,512 / 117,600 = 0.038367346

48/50 x 2/49 x 47/48 = 4,512 / 117,600 = 0.038367346
48/50 x 47/49 x 2/48 = 4,512 / 117,600 = 0.038367346

Add these together:

0.038367346 + 0.038367346 + 0.038367346 = 0.115102038

for a 11.51% probability you’ll flop a set
or, (1 / 0.115102038) – 1 = 7.68 : 1 odds against flopping a set

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What about flopping 2 pair?

There are 3 ways you can flop 2 pair:

AKx AxK xAK

And there are 6 cards in the deck that can help you. Once you’ve paired your first card,
there are only 3 cards left that can pair your second card.

(6/50 x 3/49 x 48/48) = 864 / 117,600 = .0073469

(6/50 x 49/49 x 3/48) = 882 / 117,600 = .0075
(50/50 x 6/49 x 3/48) = 900 / 117,600 = .007653

Adding the probabilities together gives:

.0073469 + .0075 + .007653 = .0224999

for a 2.25% chance you’ll flop two pair
or, (100 – 2.25) / 2.25 = 43.44:1 odds against flopping two pair.

What about flopping a flush?

There are 13 cards of same suit in the deck. You hold 2 of them, that leaves 11 cards
that can help you. We need 3 of those suited cards to hit the flop.

(11/50 x 10/49 x 9/48) = 990 / 117,600 = 0.008418367

for a 0.84% chance you’ll flop a made flush
or, (1 / .008418367) - 1 = 118.78 : 1 odds against

Another way to calculate this is:

There are 11 cards remaining in your suit. Three of those need to be chosen. Any three
cards can be chosen from the remaining 50 cards.

Essentially, the probability = how many ways can something happen / how many ways
8
anything can happen

C(11,3) / C(50/3) = 165 / 19,600 = 0.008418367 or 0.84%

What about flopping a flush draw?

There are 11 cards remaining in your suit, you need 2 of them to give you a four flush
draw. There are 39 cards that won’t help you (50 – 11). Any 3 cards can be chosen from
the remaining 50 cards.

(C(11,2) x C(39,1)) / C(50,3) = 55 x 39 / 19,600 = 0.109438775

for 10.94% probability you’ll flop a 4 flush draw
or, (100 – 10.49) / 10.49 = 8.53 : 1 against

What about flopping a straight?

9
Straight calculations are the most involved . To begin with there are:

8
See http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/61898.html
9
Calculations adapted from http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56616.html

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 Hold’em: Understanding the Math behind the Game

Two boards that will give you a straight; 3 cards below the two you hold, 3 cards above
the two you hold.

We need 3 consecutive cards chosen from 10 available ranks (13 ranks – 2 ranks in your
hand – Ace which can be high or low).

There are 4 ways to chose a single suit for the 3 cards.

We need to choose 3 cards from 50.

Probability(straight) = C(10,3) + 4 + C(10,3) + 4 / C(50,3)

= 248 / (50 x 49 x 48 ) / (3 x 2 x 1)
= 248 / 19,600
= 0.012653061
for a 1.3% chance of flopping a straight or (100 – 1.3) / 1.3 = 76:1 odds against.

Note that I really don’t know if I’ve got this right and I’m still puzzling over the math for gutshots
10
and 1 gappers so I’m not even going to attempt it here .

10
See Bugs and Matthew’s calculations for straights.

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 Hold’em: Understanding the Math behind the Game

The Turn and River

These are actually the easiest to do. Just determine your outs and for the turn, divide them by 47,
for the river, divide them by 46.

For example, if you have an Open Ended Straght Draw you have 8 outs.

Turn: 8 / 47 = 17.02% or (100 – 17.02) / 17.02 = 4.87 : 1 odds against

River: 8 / 46 = 17.39% or (100 – 17.39) / 17.39 = 4.75 : 1 odds against

Essentially, the odds for drawing 1 more card are, whether it’s the turn or river card, are almost
the same. In most situations, if you have 8 or more outs you can usually draw to 1 card as the
pot generally will have at least 5 bets or will have at least 5 bets if you hit your hand.

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 Hold’em: Understanding the Math behind the Game

Raising for value

Whether or not you should raise is largely determined by your pot equity and your hand’s equity
or EV percentage (this is usually calculated based on your chance to win by the river).

Your pot equity is based on your share of the pot. If there are 4 people in the hand, including
yourself, your pot equity is 25% (1/4); 5 people, 20% ( 1/5); 6 people, 17% (1/6), etc. It
represents the amount you are contributing to the pot with each bet.

Your hand’s EV is determined by your outs. For example, if you have flush draw, you have 9 outs.
With two cards to come, you can expect to hit this 35% of the time. Calculated as:

38/47 x 9/46 = 342 / 2,162 = 15.8%

9/47 x 38/46 = 342 / 2,162 = 15.8%
9/47 x 8/46 = 72 / 2,162 = 3.3%

Add the probabilities together: 15.8 + 15.8 + 3.3 = 34.9%

If your hand equity by the river is greater than your pot share, raise. For every bet you put in you
can expect to win more than your fair share.

Of course, it’s not always that easy. If you raise from middle position and 2 or 3 players behind
you fold, you effectively reduce your pot equity. As a rule, you are better off raising for value when
you are last to act and the people ahead of you have already bet (few players will fold to one
more bet). You always need to consider how the other’s in the hand may respond.

Jane Griscti Page 20 10/01/2005