Portugal as a case-study

An ageing population dealing with diversity

“Effects of Migration on Population Structures in Europe”

Vienna Institute of Demography
1-2 December 2008 M. João Valente Rosa
Professor of Demography, PhD

mj.rosa@fcsh.unl.pt
Joana Lopes Martins
PhD Candidate

j.lopesmartins@fcsh.unl.pt
 Main Topics

Portugal

1. Demography in brief: the ageing process

2. Migration happenings

3. Immigrants: from diversity to contrasts

4. Migration issue: more than a global or a single

question

2
 1. Population- an overview
Portugal

% 1900 2001
2007
0-14 33,8 16,0 65+: 17,4%
15-64 60,5 67,7
65 + 5,7 16,4
•8th oldest country in the world
Data source:
Census 1900 and 2001, National Statistics Institute (INE) •4th oldest country in EU27
Sources: INE, PRB and EUROSTAT

How did we get there ?

What triggered this process ?

3
 1. Population- an overview
1960 2006
TFR Country TFR Country
3,8 Ireland 2,0 France
3,2 Portugal 1,90 Ireland
3,1 Netherlands 1,85 Sweden
2,9 Spain 1,84 Finland, United Kingdom
2,7 Finland, United Kingdom, 1,83 Denmark
Austria, France 1,70 Netherlands
2,6 Belgium 1,65 Luxembourg
2,5 Denmark 1,40 Austria
2,4 Germany, Italy 1,39 Greece
2,3 Luxembourg, Greece 1,38 Spain
2,2 Sweden 1,35 Portugal
1,32 Italy, Germany
Fertility declined in the last 4 decades but it
was not the phenomenon setting off
ageing…
4
Sources: Demographic Statistics, EUROSTAT.
 1. Population- an overview

Age groups percentage on total population, Portugal 1900-2007

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1900 1911 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1981 1991 2001 2007

0-14 15-64 65+

Data Sources: Census 1900-2001 and Demographic Statistics 2007, INE 5

 1. Population- an overview
10400
10300 1986-91: fertility decline and
increase in emigration flows
Population (millions)

10200
1981-85: Fertility and
10100 emigration decline

10000 1999-01: increase in

immigration flows
9900
1982: TFR below 2,1
9800
9700
1993: Immigration outnumbers emigration
9600
9500
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
6

Source: Adapted from M. J. Carrrilho (2002), “ A situação demográfica recente em Portugal” in Revista de Estudos demográficos, INE.
 2. Migration Happenings:
NATURAL and MIGRATORY CHANGES

2007- PORTUGAL
Total population: 10 608 335
80000

Foreigners: 435 736 (4%) 60000

40000
Natural change: -1 020
20000

0
Migratory change: 19 500
96

97

98

99
00

01

02

03
04

05

06

07
19

19

19

19
20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20
-20000

Natural Change Migratory Change

Data Sources: Estimation of Resident Population 2007, INE; Number of Foreigners - Foreigners and Borders
Office (SEF) statistics (foreign population provisional data for 2006); Demographic Statistics 2006, INE. 7
2. Migration Happenings
1. Portugal - a new country of destination ???
(with Italy, Ireland, Norway and Spain – IOM 2005)

• During the 1960s Portugal was mostly a sending country

• During the 1990s immigration stocks more than doubled

nevertheless
• Portugal has a long colonial history
• The 1st mass wave of migration was in mid 1970s (~1million
arrivals)
• Those flows evolved from a politically to an economic
motivation
• Many of these individuals have naturalized and we lost the
track of them in statistics. Still, it would be worth to
acknowledge their demographic behaviors – i.e. there is the
need for different sorts of data.

8
2. Migration Happenings
2. Three basic ideas
1. The first wave of migration was very diverse (citizenship
status, race, socio-economic status…). E.g. there is no
direct link between by then migration from colonies and
foreign status.

2. The 1990s flows brought additional complexity: flows

from Africa, EU, eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America -
populations with varying characteristics.

3. Immigrants have a fairly low impact in reversing or

aggravating national demographic trends.

9
 3. Immigrants – from variety to contrasts
Post-colonial migrants? A question of numbers or a question
of social visibility?

Two major regional origins (Portugal, 2006):

Europe: 38,2% (160 658) Brazil: 16,2%

EU: 49,8%
China: 2,4%
Others: 50,2% 74% of
Others: 7,5%
migrants’
Africa: 35,7% (150 071) stock
PSAC: 92,9%
Others: 7,1%

Note: PSAC (Portuguese Speaking African countries)

Data Source: SEF statistics
10
 3. Immigrants – from variety to contrasts
CONTINENTE
(Concelhos)
Number of elders by number
Portugal, 2006 - 18 regions (districts): Índice de Envelhecimento (%)
of youngsters (%), 2001 2001
• 2 have less than a 1% share of
immigrants
• 6 have less than 2% Migrants
• 7 have 2-3% settle in
regions
• 1 around 5,3% (Setubal) with lower
• 1 have 8,5% share (Lisbon) levels of
ageing
• 1 have 14,6% share (Faro)

Local approaches to Legenda:

40.9 - 101.2

immigration and 101.2 - 150.3

150.3 - 207
207 - 321.2
321.2 - 519.5

integration must be a Fonte: INE

0 50 100 Km

priority!
Data Source: SEF statistics and Estimation of Data source: Census 2001, INE
11
Resident Population 2007, INE
3. Points in case:
the bias of aggregated figures
Examples:
† National perspectives become ever more limited as foreigners
tend to concentrate in particular districts. Smaller units of
analysis may reveal higher contributions for socio-
demographic structures;
† Foreigners have different age structures according to
regional/national origin;
† Levels of fertility vary greatly by mothers’ origin and there
are also some evidences showing a tendency to lower the gap
with national levels as time of permanence increases.
† Education levels vary by nationality but also within
nationalities

12
 3.1. Contrasts: Regional issues
3 regions, 3 different issues?
(2006)

EU Others PSAC Brazil China

Europe
Faro 36,8 29,1 13,9 10,1 1,5

Lisbon 15,0 9,9 47,5 14,7 2,2

Setubal 7,5 14,4 55,3 16,0 1,7

Reinforcing ageing?
Labor migrations?

Data Source: SEF statistics

13
 3.2. Contrasts: Age structures
Age structures by selected citizenships (Portugal, 2006)
Retirement
Portugal migration
United Kingdom

Uckrain
China
Cape Verde

Brazil

0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent
0-14 15-64 65+

Data Sources: Foreigners – SEF statistics; National population – Demographic Statistics 2007, 14
INE.
 3.2. Contrasts: Age structures
“Dependency” ratios, Portugal (2006)
YDR ODR TDR
Portugal 23 26 49

Total Foreigners 20,1 6,0 26,1

EU 17,6 14,5 32,1

Others Europe 17,8 0,7 18,5
Africa 23,3 4,0 27,2

Foreign population has lower rates of demographic “dependency”

But
Aggregated numbers are misleading: EU populations have an high ODR

Data Sources: Foreigners – SEF statistics ; Nationals - Demographic Statistics 2007, INE. 15
 3.3. Fertility contrasts - 2006
TFR - Portugal 1,4
TFR – Portuguese women 1,2
Mozambique 1,6
Guinea Bissau 1,7
+ France 2,0
United Kingdom 1,2 Cape Verde 2,1
Netherlands 1,1 Russia 2,4
Germany 0,8 S. Tome and Principe 2,9
-
Angola 3,0
Brazil 4,6 Contribution to
Moldova 5,1 higher national
TFR or ‘pockets
Romania 11,1 of exclusion’?

Note about sources: while births concern all reported births by age and citizenship of the mother in 2006,
fertile population is based only on women with residence permits. This last fact leads to a particular
underestimation of certain stocks (e.g. Romania). Once all population is considered TFR may fall at least to
half. Nevertheless, fertility patterns will remain high.

Sources: Births – Demographic Statistics, INE; Women 15-49 – SEF statistics 16

3.4. Education contrasts
Rate of foreigners(18-64) with at least a secondary level of education
(PORTUGAL, 2001)
National average: 26,9%
Angola 28,6
+ Mozambique 31,8
Cape Verde 10,9 France 41,5
S. Tome and 23,0 26,9% Brazil 48,6
Principe Romania 57,3
Guinea Bissau -
24,7 Ukraine 58,5
Spain 62,1
Moldova 63,1
Germany 64,3
Russia 69,2
United Kingdom 74,9
Worth to note:
• Low level of secondary education in Portugal;
• Very diverse levels among foreigners according to nationality;
• Some longer settled communities have lower levels of education;
• Higher levels of education are not guaranteed across generations… 17

Source: Census 2001, INE in Valente Rosa 2005.

 3.4. Education contrasts

Fig. 1- % de indivíduos (HM), por grandes G.I., com secundário completo ou

Share of population with
mais,at least
por a secondary
nacionalidades level
(Portugal, of education, by broad
2001)
age groups and citizenship (Portugal, 2001)
80
70
60
50
25-64
%

40
18-24
30
20
10
0
Moldávia

S.Tomé e
França

Reino Unido

Bulgária

Roménia

Rússia

Ucrânia

Angola

Cabo Verde

Bissau

Moçambique
Alemanha

Espanha

Guiné-

Brasil

Nacional
Príncipe

Média
School trajectories still underway or educational downgrade???
18

Source: Census 2001, INE in Valente Rosa 2005.

 3.4. Education contrasts

Higher qualifications do not guarantee better jobs (Dual labor market theory)

Rate of occupation as medium-low qualified labor (Portugal,2001)

EU 25%
Brazil 42%
Cape Verde 74,2%
Ukraine 84% (low educational compensation of migration)

Sources: Valente Rosa 2005 and Census 2001, INE in ACIME 2005. 19
 4. Final thoughts
† In Portugal aggregated and average figures somehow
underestimate the impact of migration;

† National perspectives might leave their way to regional

and decentralized managements of integration (both
geographic and institutional decentralization);

† Accurate public policies depend on the identification of

diversity among and within nationalities.

Dealing with diversity obliges a changing perspective:

from macro to mezzo and/or micro
20
 Portugal as a case-study
An ageing population dealing with diversity

“Effects of Migration on Population Structures in Europe”

Vienna Institute of Demography
1-2 December 2008 M. João Valente Rosa
Professor of Demography, PhD

mj.rosa@fcsh.unl.pt
Joana Lopes Martins
PhD Candidate

j.lopesmartins@fcsh.unl.pt