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ABSTRACT
Results The two randomized study groups were similar with respect to
base-line risk factors. In the intention-to-treat analysis, no significant
differences were found between the treatment groups in any of the
outcomes measured. The primary end point of death or recurrent
ischemic stroke was reached by 196 of 1103 patients assigned to
warfarin (17.8 percent) and 176 of 1103 assigned to aspirin (16.0 percent;
P=0.25; hazard ratio comparing warfarin with aspirin, 1.13; 95 percent
confidence interval, 0.92 to 1.38). The rates of major hemorrhage were low
(2.22 per 100 patient-years in the warfarin group and 1.49 per 100 patient-
years in the aspirin group). Also, there were no significant treatment-
related differences in the frequency of or time to the primary end point or
major hemorrhage according to the cause of the initial stroke.
Methods
Study Design
Follow-up
The primary end point was death from any cause or recurrent ischemic
stroke, whichever occurred first. Recurrent ischemic stroke was defined
as a new lesion detected by computed tomography or magnetic resonance
imaging or, in the absence of a new lesion, clinical findings consistent with
the occurrence of stroke that lasted for more than 24 hours. Local centers
reported potential outcome events to the events coordinator at the data-
management center and submitted clinical summaries, study forms
documenting clinical details, and brain imaging studies. An independent,
treatment-blinded neuroradiologist reviewed the images. Five treatment-
blinded neurologists adjudicated all clinical events using a majority verdict
for decisions about outcomes.
Statistical Analysis
The original target sample size was 1920 patients, which provided the
study with 80 percent power and a 5 percent two-sided probability of a
type I error for a test of the primary null hypothesis according to the
intention to treat, allowing for a 30 percent reduction in the event rate for
one therapy from a 16 percent event rate over two years for the other, and
an overall dropout and discontinuation rate of 20 percent at two years for
both therapies combined. In 1995, while still blinded to event rates
according to treatment group, the performance and safety monitoring
board appointed by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and
Stroke increased the target sample size to 2200 to adjust for the possible
effects of interruption of therapy. In 1996, they revised the original stopping
rule based on a single interim analysis by adopting a modified repeated
significance test16 procedure that called for three scheduled interim
analyses and allowed for additional interim analyses. The trial proceeded
to its planned completion and final analysis without crossing the efficacy or
safety boundaries.
Results
A total of 2206 patients were randomly assigned to treatment groups at a
steady rate during the recruitment phase. Their clinical and demographic
features are shown in Table 1. Of these, 1302 (59 percent) were over the
age of 60 years, 1309 (59 percent) were male, 1499 (68 percent) had
hypertension, 705 (32 percent) had diabetes, 504 (23 percent) had cardiac
disease, 390 (18 percent) had angina or prior myocardial infarction, and
629 (29 percent) had prior amaurosis fugax, transient ischemic attack, or
stroke. The end-point status at two years was established for 2173 (98.5
percent). An additional 33 (1.5 percent) withdrew consent or were lost to
follow-up for other reasons, at a mean of 10.2±7.5 months after
randomization. Figure 1 illustrates follow-up and imputation of events
according to treatment.
Laboratory Testing
Outcomes
The overall rate of the primary end point of death or recurrent ischemic
stroke of 16.9 percent (372 of 2206 patients) slightly exceeded the 16
percent rate assumed in the trial design. In the primary intention-to-treat
analysis, there were no significant differences between the warfarin and
aspirin groups in the time to the primary end point (P=0.25 by two-tailed
log-rank test; hazard ratio for warfarin as compared with aspirin, 1.13; 95
percent confidence interval, 0.92 to 1.38; two-year probability of an event,
17.8 percent with warfarin and 16.0 percent with aspirin) (Table 2 and
Figure 2). Censoring data from subjects whose data were incomplete at
the time of loss to follow-up did not materially affect the outcome of the
primary analysis, and incorporating the interruption of study medication as
a time-dependent covariate showed that the effects of warfarin and aspirin
therapy did not differ.
Discussion
The overall percentages of patients with INR values in, above, or below
the target range in our study also compare favorably with the percentages
in other trials. These findings argue against the possibility that warfarin's
lack of superiority to aspirin was due to high percentages of patients with
low INR values. Because reports of studies showing the success of
warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation did not present data on the time
course of INR values during the trials in graphic form, no direct time-based
comparisons with our data are possible.
Like the studies of tissue plasminogen activator for acute stroke,33 our
study did not find significant differences in the effects of treatment among
patients with different clinically identifiable types of prior ischemic stroke.
Despite our study's lack of sufficient power to show such differences, our
data nonetheless suggest some possible selective treatment effects.
Aspirin was slightly, but not significantly, superior to warfarin in patients
with large-vessel and lacunar infarcts. Patients with large-vessel strokes
are currently under study.34 If aspirin is superior to warfarin in lacunar
stroke, that finding will support the idea that there is a mechanistic link
between lacunar disease and large-intracranial-artery atheroma.35,36
Cryptogenic stroke, in which the prevalence of superficial brain convexity
infarcts and lack of evidence of large-artery disease have made clinically
occult embolism15 or coagulopathy37 the leading presumed causes, was
the only clinically identified stroke type for which a possible benefit of
warfarin was suggested by our data; but the reduction in risk was small (8
percent) and not statistically significant.
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