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Dependent variable is

 reserves (Res.)

Independent variables are


 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
 Consumer Price Index (CPI)
 Nominal Exchange Rate (NER)
 Money Suppy (M1)
Dependent Variable: RES
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/09/11 Time: 09:45
Sample: 2000Q1 2009Q4
Included observations: 40

Variable Coefficie Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


nt

C - 5.300492 -2.549056 0.0153


13.51125
GDP 0.004502 0.020504 0.219564 0.8275
CPI 3.116077 0.937849 3.322579 0.0021
M1 0.886503 0.326298 2.716853 0.0102
NER - 1.150954 -1.178766 0.2464
1.356705

R-squared 0.660476 Mean dependent var 8.823500


Adjusted R-squared 0.621673 S.D. dependent var 0.781768
S.E. of regression 0.480852 Akaike info criterion 1.489955
Sum squared resid 8.092657 Schwarz criterion 1.701065
Log likelihood - F-statistic 17.02138
24.79909
Durbin-Watson stat 0.296911 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
T-Statistic
Before going to interpretation of t-statistic there are some points to remember

 The value of t-statistic will be always greater than zero.


 When we will go for interpretation we will ignore the positive and negative signs.

Now if we look at the result in t-statistic the probability for CPI is 0.0021 that is less than 0.01,
0.05, and 0.1 it means result is sufficient at 1%, 5% and 10%. The probability for GDP is 0.8275
that is greater than 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1 it means result is insufficient at 1%, 5% and 10%. The
probability for M1 is 0.0102 that is greater than 0.01 but less than 0.05, and 0.1 it means result is
insufficient at 1% and sufficient at 5% and 10%. The probability for NER is 0.2564 that is
greater than 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1 it means result is insufficient at 1%, 5% and 10%.

R-squared
The result of R-square shows the variation in the model. As the value of R-squared
is 0.656124, which means that 65% change in Result is due to independent
variables (CPI, GDP, M1, NER) and the remaining change is of 35% is due to
some other factors.

F-statistic
F-statistic shows overall goodness of the test. In given equation the Results of

F-statistic 17.64922, which means that test, is good and as the probability of f-test
is 0.0000 which means that test is very good.
RES C GDP CPI M1 NER
Mean 8.823500 1.000000 6.951750 4.817500 14.55039 4.132964
Median 9.200000 1.000000 9.530000 4.810000 14.60071 4.095833
Maximum 9.600000 1.000000 10.26000 5.110000 15.16595 4.433907
Minimum 6.970000 1.000000 0.000000 4.580000 14.02461 3.947226
Std. Dev. 0.781768 0.000000 4.070836 0.161400 0.338034 0.121054
Skewness -1.270691 NA -0.782168 0.195972 0.004830 1.380671
Kurtosis 3.131462 NA 1.693385 1.653769 1.770817 4.017410

Jarque-Bera 10.79318 NA 6.923985 3.276598 2.518305 14.43356


Probability 0.004532 NA 0.031367 0.194310 0.283895 0.000734

Sum 352.9400 40.00000 278.0700 192.7000 582.0156 165.3185


Sum Sq. Dev. 23.83531 0.000000 646.2966 1.015950 4.456419 0.571506

Observations 40 40 40 40 40 40

Interpretation
The above descriptive data shows that the mean of RES gives the value of 8.853333. The
maximum value of RES is 9.60000 and the M1nimum value is 6.9700. So the mean value is in
between the maximum and M1nimum value. CPI mean is 4.83357 which are between maximum
5.170000 and M1nimum value 4.580000.GDP mean value is between maximum and M1nium
value.M1 mean value is between maximum and M1nium value. NER mean value 4.147608 is
between maximum4.448048 and M1nium 3.947226 value.
Correlations
res gdp cpi m1 ner
res Pearson Correlation 1 .066 .679** .699** .206
Sig. (1-tailed) .352 .000 .000 .101
N 40 36 40 40 40
gdp Pearson Correlation .066 1 .192 -.036 .228
Sig. (1-tailed) .352 .131 .418 .091
N 36 36 36 36 36
**
cpi Pearson Correlation .679 .192 1 .478** .686**
Sig. (1-tailed) .000 .131 .001 .000
N 40 36 40 40 40
**
m1 Pearson Correlation .699 -.036 .478** 1 -.046
Sig. (1-tailed) .000 .418 .001 .389
N 40 36 40 40 40
ner Pearson Correlation .206 .228 .686** -.046 1
Sig. (1-tailed) .101 .091 .000 .389
N 40 36 40 40 40
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed).

Interpretation
The above result tells the direction and strength of the test. The relation between
RES and RES is directly positive. Result between RES and CPI is positive strong
significant. It means if RES increase CPI will increase I same direction. The
relation between RES and GDP is positively insignificant. The relation between
RES and m1 is positively significant and with strong relation. The relation between
RES and NER is positively insignificant.
b
Variables Entered/Removed

Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method

1 ner, m1, gdp,


a
. Enter
cpi

a. All requested variables entered.

b. Dependent Variable: res

Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of the


Model R R Square Square Estimate
a
1 .841 .708 .670 .4662714

a. Predictors: (Constant), ner, m1, gdp, cpi

b
ANOVA

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.


a
1 Regression 16.345 4 4.086 18.795 .000

Residual 6.740 31 .217

Total 23.084 35

a. Predictors: (Constant), ner, m1, gdp, cpi


b. Dependent Variable: res

a
Coefficients
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant) -27.871 8.197 -3.400 .002
gdp .002 .023 .007 .069 .945
cpi 1.642 1.086 .293 1.511 .141
m1 1.664 .445 .632 3.736 .001
ner 1.115 1.642 .111 .679 .502
a. Dependent Variable: res

INTERPRETATION

T- TEST

This test shows us that which value is significant. Three levels which are used to find the
significance of any value is 1%, 5% and 10%.CPI are insignificant at 1%, 5% and 10%. GDP is
Insignificant at 1%, 5% 10%. M1 is Insignificant at 1%, significant a 5% and10%... NER is
significant at 1%, 5% and 10%.

F-statistic

F-test shows the goodness of the test. In given equation shows the Result of 18.795, which
means that test is good and the probability of f-test is 0.0000 which means that test is very good.

R-squared

The value of R-squared is .670, which means 67% change in Result is due to independent
variables. Which are? CPI, GDP, M1, NER, and the remaining change is of 23% is due to some
other factors.

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