Responsive Documents - CREW v. CEQ: Re: Global Warming: CEQ 5-9-11 Docs

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RECORD TYPE: FEDERAL (N OTES MAIL)

CREATOR: Dana M. perino ( CN=Dana M. peri nO/OU=CEQ/O=EOP [CEQ] )
CREATION DATE/TIME:25-FES-2003 17:27:12.00
SUBJECT:: Re: CCSP review
TO:"Jordan St.John" <Jordan.St.John@noaa .qov» ( "Jordan st .ochn''
<JOrdan . St. J ohn@noaa. gov > [ UNKNOWN I )
READ: UNKNOWN
cc: phil Cooney ( cN=phi 1 Cooney/OU=CEQ/O =EOP@EOP [ CEQ ] )
READ: UNK NOWN
TEXT:
Jordan - - here are two t hi ngs from the report we I d sugg est pull i ng out to
use in your rel ease AND that vou caul d use to comment today ...
On page 2 of the NAS report: In !;Jeneral • the draft plan provides a sol id
foundation for the CCSP. with sui tab'l e revisions, the plan could
articulate an expicit and forward-looking vision for the CCSP and clearly
identifiable pathways to successful impl ementation.
GREAT! That's what we wa nted. Then we c an tal k about the presi dent I s
overall approach and action
"Jordan St.John" <Jordan .sr .oohnenoaa.uo v»

02/25/2003 04:14:09 PM
Record Type: Record
To: Dana M. perino/CEQ/EOP@EOP
cc:
subject: CCSP review
Dana,
Here is the draft of the response to the National Academies review of
the CCSP draft strategic plan. It is being circulated internally at
NOAA for edi ts/changes. pl ease forward me anythi ng you want in.
Jordan
- CCSP NRC REVIEW 2-25-03 draft.doc
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CEQ 012298
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CEQ 012299
DRAFT Agenda
Retreat on Revision of the CCSP Strategic Plan
24 and 26 February 2003
Monday,
24 February ChairlPresenters
1:00·3:15 Welcome, Objectives, and Key Decisions for James Mahoney (chair)
Revising the Plan CCSP staff
- Introduction/overview (30 min)
- General Q&A session (30 min)
- Overview of general comments (30 min)
- Proposed revised structure (15 min)
- Synthesis chapter strawman contents (30 min)
3:15 - 3:30 Coffee Break
3:30 - 5:30 Chapter Synopses: Jack Kaye (chair)
Response to Key Comments
(10 min overview, 5 min discussion each)
- Atmospheric Composition Dave Fahey
- Climate Variability and Change Jay Fein
- Water Cycle Rick Lawford
- Land Use/Land Cover Change Tom Loveland
- Carbon Cycle Roger Dahlman
., Ecosystems Steve Shafer
- Human Contributions and Responses Janet Gamble
- Modeling, Observations, and Chet Koblinsky
3:30-5:30
________ !?~taflnfo!!!!.'!!!9.'} ..§.Y..~_~~~~.~)}]_~.t~L_._ .._._.__.__
Principals Meeting
__ __
_....... .- .......-. ._._-_...-.----
James Mahoney (chair)
- Process for identifying issues to be developed
as Decision Support Resources
- Strategic Plan summary document
- Formulating response to key general
comments
5:30 Adiourn
CEQ 012300
Wednesday,
26 February ChairlPresenters
1:00 - 2:00 Overview of Day 1 Chapter Session Michael Slimak (chair)
and Principals' Decisions
- Key chapter developments/collaboration Jack Kaye
- Principals' guidance James Mahoney
- Other issues: synthesis and integration
2:00 - 2:30 Update on the NRC Report Bill Hohenstein (chair)
2:30 - 3:15 Decision Support Resources Susan Avery (chair)
3:15 - 3:30 Coffee Break
3:30 - 3:50 International Research and Cooperation Lou Brown (chair)
3:50 - 4:50 Breakout Groups:
Facilitating Chapter Linkages
- Group 1: Carbon Cycle, Land Use, Diane Wickland (chair)
Ecosystems, Water Cycle, and
Observations/Modeling/Data
- Group 2: Atmospheric Composition, Climate David Goodrich (chair)
Variability, Key Uncertainties, and
Observations/Modeling/Data
- Group 3: Decision Support, Outreach, and Caitlin Simpson (chair)
Human Dimensions
4:50-5:15 Process Issues Dave Dokken (chair)
-: Annotation of comments
- Underlying documents
- Credits
5:15-5:30 Closing Remarks James Mahoney
CEQ 012301
"General Comments" on CCSP Discussion Draft Strategic Plan that pertain to particular chapters
112 reviewers of the Discussion Draft Strategic Plan made 160 pages of what have been
categorized as "General Comments." Many of these comments refer to particular chapters or
combinations of chapters in the draft plan, and others are clearly relevant to particular
chapters. To facilitate appropriate consideration of these comments by chapter authors, this
document pulls from the General Comments file an annotated listing of review comments
that pertain to each chapter. Each entry lists reviewer and affiliation, page and line numbers
of the comment (using the version of the draft plan that is posted on the
www.climatescience.gov web site), and in most cases an indication of the content of the
comment. (Pagelline numbers are in parentheses)
Chapter I--Introduction
Anderson, Harvard (p. 3/31-46) -- Specify "societal objectives"

Lashof, NRDC (54/22-35) Chgl & DS: Plan needs focus -- should be organized around
UNFCCC ultimate objective: What is required to stabilize GHGs at a level that prevents
dangerous anthro interference. Give priority to research that clarifies needed emissions
budgets and identify systems most vulnerable. Goal should be to iteratively improve
decisionrnaking under uncertainty, not provide final answers to every Q before decisions are
made
NOAA-CMDL (80/17-28) Ch 1 and Obs: Text overemphasizes the surface/troposphere
temperature record issue; IPCC considered and didn't give much weight to it.
Schwartz, Brookhaven Natl Lab (116/22-123/10) Not strategic-lacks specific target goals and
objectives, be driven by requirements; Proposes "state of objectives," focused on reducing
uncertainties about climate sensitivity sufficient to permit decisionmaking and planning for
response strategies; need significant focus on aerosols
Seidel, NOAA-ARL (123/29-40) Ch I and Obs: The surface-tropospheric temp record
controversy doesn't merit the kind of attention it gets in the plan; being manipulated by
politicians and media.
Shea, East-West Center
(1) (125/1 0-30) Integration: One way of providing program-wide integration would be a
framework focused on establishment and support of a Climate Information System for the
U.S. and world-to provide scientists and decisionmakers with info on nature and
consequences of CVC. Supporting a transition to applications is extremely important
programmativ objective not yet well-articulated in plan.
(2) (127/15-128/3) Integration: Possible program-wide integrating themes: Vulnerability;
climate risk management; climate-related extreme events; water cycle
Smith, L. (129/46-130/6) Ch I: Biased reporting of science p.6, lines 21-22, on satellite temp
record
Titus, EPA (138/1-10) General & Ch.I, 7, 10, 11: Should focus less on IPCC WGI-type ~s,
more on implications of climate change. Effects of climate change are spread across 3
chapters-ecosystems, water cycle, human dimensions. Strategic focus on implications of
climate change would put these issues together. Impacts research is currently least focused
anc most in need of strategic plan. Better organization would be to start with the 5 questions
in the Intro (ppA-5) and consider impacts issues coherently.
CEQ 012302
us CLIVAR SSC (139/34-1401l4) ChI, Ch4(applied modeling), Ch6, Acronyms: Correct
terminology/acronyms for climate variability phenomena-NAOINAM, SAM; Visbeck,
Columbia U (141/19-26) Same point as US CLIVAR SSC .
Warrilow, UK Dept. of Environment (142116-30) ChI, DS: From policy viewpoint, major
scientific challenge is assessing impacts at various stabilization levels, ref "dangerous"
interference-presents a formidabe array of complex and integrated scientific challenges
Winstanley, Illinois State water Survey
(I) (154/1-155/4) Ch.l and DS: Can argue that strategic goal should be to support
President's call to identify effective, least-cost strategies to stabilize GHG concentrations
and reduce scientific uncertainties. Then key policy Q is: What is the concentration level
to prevent dangerous human interference? CCSP could tackle scientific aspects of
defining "dangerous interference" and "level of GHG concentrations to be avoided," and
articulate role of science in value-laden risk assessment and risk-management framework.
Clarify roles of CCSP!Jnd NCCTI vis-a-vis mitigation, adaptation, and stabilization
(2) (158/9-13) Page 5 last paragraph focus on temp change is too narrow
(3) (158/28-34) Take statements from pp. 96 & 116 and add to guiding principles of whole
program on p. II
Chapter 2-CCRI Climate Science
Anderson, Harvard (711-23) -- Need more specific priorities on climate uncertainties

Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (34/1-4) -- Much more focus on abrupt climate change and
its risks
MacCracken, LLNL (ret.) (61/4-12) (also to to Ch.6) Clearly distinguish issue of climate
change projection from climate variability prediction-there are fundamental differences in
approach
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85111) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12: Modeling and uncertainty:
Include probabilistic modeling methods (using Bayesian principles) to address reduction of
uncertainty
Pierrehumbert, U Chicago
(87/39-44) Plan for accelerating progress, e.g., on clouds, not well articulated
(88/1.4) Ch2, Ch3, CM, ChI 1: Climate and disease is so important should be in the CCRI
section
Randall, Rainforest Regeneration Institute
(89/7 -90/4) Ch2, Ch 10: Physical climatology mostly well-established (IPCC WG 0, but
ecosystem responses and vulnerabilities not as well-understood (!PCC WG2}-So the
Plan is unbalanced toward overemphasizing reduction of WG I -type uncertainty rather
than the much greater WG2-type uncertainties
(90/6-22) Ch2, Ch4, Modeling: Uncertainty: making models more realistic not likely to
reduce uncertainty in predictive output
(90/24·91114) Reducing WG l-type uncertainty not a good focus: If no new $ available,
CCRI may be used to divert scarce resources into wheel-spinning "reduction of
uncertainty" in climate models at expense of building knowledge base on biogeochemical
processes interaction with climate to support practical action response programs; U.S.
policy approach suggests support for science may be our only useful contribution on
climate change, so at least should ensure research funding is not wasted on chimera of
"reduction of uncertainty" at expense of more productive approaches
CEQ 012303
Rossow, NASA GISS (l 0311 3-105/19) Ch2, Ch 6, Ch7: Flawed conception of climate system
and water cycle" Must include the Energy Cycle. The climate is an Energy Engine;
fundamental energy exchange processes; Water Cycle can't be considered separately from
Energy Cycle. Joint energy and water cycle is at center of cliamte system's response to
forcing. All of the high-priority feedbacks in this draft are elements of the Energy and Water
Cycle.
Sarachik, U Washington
(1) (10617-30) Ch2: Uncertainty in the CCRI: Reducing uncertainty is a poor focus for a
science program, especially CCRI-Leads on a focus on the most uncertain and
intractable Qs, e.g., aerosols-To put these in 2-4 year timeframe is to set program up for
failure. Until policymakers can't specify how much certainty they need, unreasonable to
design a program around it.
(2) (107/29-108/22) Ch2, DS: CCRI priorities and Regional DS: Of the 3 components of
CCRI, only environment-society interactions research (D'S) can be expected to yield
results over next 4 years. Aerosols, climate feedbacks, and obs/monitoring are long-term
research items.But plan doesn't indicate a serious effort-NOAA RISA program does
this, but is poorly funded. IRI, NCEP, ENSO observing system, and RISAs make up
most of the components of a regional climate info system for seasonal-interannual
timescales.
Stouffer, NOAA-GFDL (136/1-7) Ch2 and Ch6: Confusion in use of term "climate
sensitivity"
Warrilow, UK Dept. of Environment (141/42-142/5, 142/12-15) Ch2, DS: Priority should be
given to improving understanding of climate system uncertainties, e.g., cloud-radiation
feedbacks, but overall there is an overemphasis on basic climate science and insufficient on
assessment of impacts and adaptation, and on socioeconomic aspects
Wielicki, NASA Langley (147/2-17) Ch2, Obs, Ch6, Ch7: Major omission: There is no
Energy Cycle in the document-more important than water cycle
Chapters 3 and 12-0bservations, Modeling, Data
Anderson, Harvard (5/42-6/44) -- Need more specific priorities

Anthes, UCAR (7/25-9/9) (1) increased computer power needs; (2) radio occultations obs
Baker, NOAA (13/8-15/30) -- Include Doppler Wind Lidar obs
Barnett, UCSD (17/1 0-14) Obs -- Obs effort needs more specific focusing
Barnett, UCSD (17/3-9) Modeling-- Emphasize need for supercomputer resources; 2-center
modeling strategy potentially fatal
Busalacchi, U. Maryland (20/42-21/9) Ch4 & Obs/Modeling - Critical Qs re/2-center strategy
Earth Institute, Columbia U, - Sachs (34/44-35/10) -- broaden to include socioeconomic,
institutional, behavioral data
Green, Fraser Institute (43/14-20, 30-32) Data quality and modeling validation
Gupta, NASA GSFCIUMBC GEST (43/38-44/44) Need focus on GHG emission inventories &
reduction in associated uncertainties focus on regional air quality/aerosols/ozone links to
GHGs
Kato, Hampton U. (52/21-43) Obs & Ch6 - global radiation balance, regional energy balance
Mote, JSIAO/SMA (71/9-13) Ch 3, 4, 6, 10: Explicitly include bridge to seasonal forecasting
( 1-20 year timescale)
CEQ 012304
NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board (72/4-73/38) Ch 4, ObslModeling:
Need better discussion of need to strengthen US modeling capability; include/acknowledge
Earth System Modeling Framework, need for common modeling infrastructure
NIST (Semerjian) (74/6-77/39) Measurements, metrological framework: Plan neglects important
role of measurement standards, sensor calibration and degradation, and other aspects of
metrological framework in reducing uncertainties; need for strengthening chemical and
physical measurement and data infrastructure
NOAA-CMDL (80/17-28) Text overemphasizes the surface/troposphere temperature record
issue; WCC considered and didn't give much weight to it.
NOAA-CMDL (80/30-81/2)
(I) Obs-In gray box no mention of monitoring atmospheric COl' CH., CO-should
emphasize as crucial item under carbon cycle obs;
(2) Obs box would be better if redesigned to underscore cross-cutting issues.
(3) Modeling: In gray box no mention of inverse modeling.
(4) Emphasize importance of improving instruments and measurements.
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/11) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12: Modeling and uncertainty:
uncertainty
(8811-4) Ch2. Ch3, Ch4, ChI 1: Climate and disease is so important should be in the CCRI
section
(87/15-29) Modeling: software engineering, computer resources
Porch, LANL (88/24-89/5) Supports climate obs emphasis but 2-4 years timescale misleading;
most useful uncertainty quantification to focus on in next 2.4 years
Randall, Rainforest Regeneration Institute (90/6-22) Ch2, Ch3, Ch4 (Modeling): Uncertainty:
making models more realistic not likely to reduce uncertainty in predictive output
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/26-30) Need airborne aerosol monitoring capability
Rossow, NASA GISS (103/21-40) -- There is no definition of what a climate obs system
INCLUDES.
Sarachik, U Washington (108/24-109/9) Obs and DS: Climate obs system can't be sustained
w/o being part of a system that delivers useful climate products. Until we have an
operational organization for climate, attempts to sustain obs system w/in research community
will fail. Must design and implement climate obs system as part of a useful product delivery
system.
Seidel, NOAA-ARL (123/29-40) Ch 1 and Obs: The surface-tropospheric temp record
controversy doesn't merit the kind of attention it gets in the plan; being manipulated by
politicians and media
Slingo, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modeling (128/38-129/13) Modeling: Need
fuller development on status of climate modeling needs and needed infrastructure and
strategies
Weller et al., U Alaska (143/34-45) Obs, Ch6: Should address polar regions more substantively
Wielicki, NASA Langley
(1).(147/2-17) Ch2, Obs, Ch6, Ch7: Major omission: There is no Energy Cycle in the
document-more important than water cycle
(2) (147/19-148/4) Major omissions:: Measuring surface sensible heat. latent heat, or
radiative fluxes; measuring top of atmosphere solar and thermal infrared radiative fluxes
CEQ 012305
(3) (148112-27) We are far short of building the climate obs system envisioned in the plan-
wlo significant new $ the plan will fail. Cannot test against against inadequate data.
Wiscombe, NASA Goddard (158/2-160/11) Obs: Importance of having a plan to develop
balloon platforms for earth Science-there is no planning for this in Fed agencies now-
balloons could make vital contribution at modest cost .
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey (156/14-35) Modeling: CCRI section on Applied
Climate Modeling is restricted to global modeling at 2 centers - too narrow and restrictive,
inconsistent wi President's position on regional scale modeling; 2-center strategy is too
narrow for a US plan-states should get more recognition from scientific and policy
perspectives
Ch. 4 -- Decision Support
American Assoc. of State Climatologists (2/14-3/15) -- Focus on plausible variations, not

specific projections; focus on societal vulnerabilities, especially regional and local;
emphasize 2-way communication with stakeholders, including state climatologists;
concentrate on reducing vulnerability to extremes
Attorney General offices for for Mass., Conn, Maine, NY (9/11-13/6) Include mitigation or
offer disclaimer
Barnett, UCSD (17/3-4) Ch4 & ObslModeling -- Emphasize need for supercomputer resources
Barnett, UCSD (17/5-9) Ch4 & ObslModeling -- 2-center modeling strategy potentially fatal
Berg, Humboldt State U. (18/28-19/28) - Include technology solutions and economics of
mitigation
Burgeil, Defenders of Wildlife (20/1-9) -- Uncertainty should not be a substitute for action
Busalacchi, U Maryland (20/42-21/9) Ch4 & ObslModeling - Critical Qs rei 2-center strategy
California, State of (22/38-23/39.24113-22 Regional: Need more pronounced regional focus,
regional modeling capability; Offers collaboration with California as pilot project for USG
and IPCC in regional collaboration
California, State of (23/40-24/11) -- Deal with both mitigation and adaptation in assessing
policy responses
Craig, Sierra Club (26/36-27/2, 27112-19) -- Clarify role of assessments; sustain and build on
National Assessment; more regional consequences research and assessments needed;
Craig, Sierra Club (26/36-27/2, 27112-19) -- Plan assumes there is so much uncertainty no action
possible. Specify what uncertainty reduction needed to trigger action; few major scientific
uncertainties will be resolved in 2-5 year timeframe; pursue science on its own timetable,
implement policy now using existing science
Dept. of Transportation, Lawson (29/41-44) Regional: More focus on state, regional, and local
levels will make research more useful
Diaz-So1tero, USDA (30/2-33) -- Regional: Case studies to apply climate science at
regional/sectora1 scales; California for case study; U.S. western mountain regions for
integrated science-asessment initiative;
Diaz-Soltero, USDA (30/35-31/13) -- Regional: Increase role of Federal land management
agencies in ecosyiern research and integrated regional assessments
Dubey, DOEILANL (31/15-42) Uncertainty: How to link uncertainty reduction with thresholds
for action, as was done with air quality and strat ozone?
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (33/38-46, 34125-42) Uncertainty issue vis-a-vis
policy/technology: Need policy in face of uncertainty, science not a substitute; must clarify
CEQ 012306
treatment of uncertainty - uncertainty reduction not necessary or sufficient for informed
policy making
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (35/34-36/5) Learn from seasonal-interannual variability
forecastiung decsion support
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (37/12-19) -Include poverty and sustainable development
Environment and Energy Study Institute (39/38-40/17) -- Incorporate mitigation scenarios with
technology and policy options
Fisher, Penn State U. (41/5-22) -- Uncertainty reduction vsi-a-vis action/decision; (41124-28)
National Assessment, don't ignore
Fisher, Penn State U. (41/38-42/6) - Evaluation of Decision Support tools is a research area in its
. own right
Green, Fraser Institute (43/4-12) -- IPCC storyline/sacenario approach flawed; (43122-28,32-35)
Reduce risk of CVC w/o regard to its origin
Hanson, LANL (46/2-13) -- Applied modeling: add sidebar on "projections" and
"predictability" here or in Ch. 6; (46/24-4712) Uncertainty: "Uncertainty reduction is not
the appropriate mission for the CCSP" Uncertainty reduction is a red herring vis-a-vis
decision support.
lRI, Zebiak and staff (49/15-50/41) (also to Human Dimensions) -- Focus on developing
capability to effectively use forecasts on seasonal-interannual timescales; Uncertainty:
annual-decadal fluctuations perhaps a more important uncertainty for decisionmakers than
uncertainty in long-term projections; human dimensions should focus on how insitutions and
decision systems use seasonal-interannual forecast info
Jay, OGI School of Sci. & Eng. (5114-14) -- Uncertainty/State of knowledge vis-a-vis action:
how much uncertainty reduction is needed? Most of science community thinks enough is
known now to justify policy changes
Jiusto, Clark U. (51/45-52/11) -- Failure to include National Assessment; opposes idea of
replacing National Assessment stakeholder process with poorly specified govt agency-run
processes;
Jiusto, Clark U. (51/45-52/11) -- Provide clearer indication of how DS will be accomplished-
needs more focus on climate change impacts, mitigation options, and costs/dangers of
inaction
Kempton, U. Delaware (53/1-15) -- Plan makes no sense w/o research on technologies and
decisions relevant to CO 2 emissions and reducing emissions
Kirschner, UCS (53/17-37) Plan fails to capture the state of the science and build on past
assessments, thus fails to pose priority Qs about cost of delay/inaction in response to climate
. change
Lashof, NRDC (54/22-35) Ch 1, DS -- Plan needs focus: Should be organized around UNFCCC
ultimate objective: What is required to stabilize GHGs at a level that prevents dangerous
anthro interference. Give priority to research that clarifies needed emissions budgets and
identify systems most vulnerable. Goal should be to iteratively improve decisionmaking
under uncertainty, not provide final answers to every Q before decisions are made
Lewinter (55/30-43) Uncertainty/action: Mitigation response should not await conclusive
research results .
MacCracken, LLNL (ret.)
(1) (59/22-28) -- Need to define the term "assessment"-used in varying ways thruout,
should clarify and edit terminology
CEQ 012307
(2) (59/30-60/25) -- National Assessment: Failure to acknowledge, misses opportunity to
learn from its findings about impacts and stakeholder interactions; implicit charge that
NA was "controversial" misrepresents the nature of discussion about the NA
(3) (60/27-32) -- Failure to address Global Change Research Act requirement of periodic
assessments
(4) (60/34-61/2) .- Preparation of assessments needs to be independent, as with IPCC, NA,
and NRC-essential for achieving credibility that this be done independent of agencies
(5) (61/33-62/2) -- DS needs to be about more than "if-then" Qs; as NA indicated, there are
many types of stakeholders needing varying types of info-important thing is 2-way
communication process
Millar, USDA (69/9-33) -- Increase participation of land management agencies for decision
support, integrated assesments, regional studies
Mote, JSlAO/SMA (71/9-13) Ch 3, 4,6, 10: Explicitly include bridge to seasonal forecasting
(1-20 year timescale),
Mote, JSIAO/SMA -- Modeling: Unsophisticated treatment of disagreement among models - use
IPCC discussion as model
National Park Service (John Dennis) (73/41-74/3) Regional/adaptation: NPS will need
significant regional/local data for adaptation
NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board (72/4-73/3~) Ch 4, Obs-
Modeling: Need better discussion of need to strengthen US modeling capability;
include/acknowledge Earth System Modeling Framework, need for common modeling
infrastructure
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/11) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12: Modeling and uncertainty:
uncertainty
Organization Presidents letter to Mahoney (AGU, AMS, APS, et al.) (85/14-86/19) -- DS and
Ch 11: CCSP needs formal program of Vulnerability and Resilience Research as support for
societal response strategy - regional vulnerability assessments, preparedness
recommendations, vulnerability and resilience research
(1) (8811-4) Ch2, Ch3, Ch4, Chi I: Climate and disease is so important should be in the
CCRI section
(2) (88/6-17) Ch4, Ch 10: Plan has large bias toward adaptation, fails to consider worst-case
impacts, whether adaptation feasible for natural ecosystems
Raps, independent scholar
(1) (91/17-24) National Assessment: Most glaring and pervasive omission from plan is NA,
its processes, products, and network, vis-a-vis Congressional mandate to continue such
democratic, participatory processes
(2) (91/26-35) DS and Ch 13: Should think in terms of "citizens," nott'stakeholder" groups.
(See Mike Sprague's Outreach panel comments)
(3) (91143-92/4) Failure to make use of IPCC as if it didn't exist-slap in the face to
scientists
Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center
(1) (92/8-94/44) Focus on regional/locallevel- focus on U.S. West, especially mountains, a
complex region for climate obs/processes/adaptation strategies/decision support
(2) (94/28-41) Regional decision support tools
Reilly, MIT
CEQ 012308
(1) (95/35-95/45) Decision support tools section reads like NSF, rather than more
empirically useful IA modles for real time DS
(2) (96/1-36) How will CCSP create confidence that a firewall exists to shield out people
who might want to manipulate results for political reasons? Previous Fed efforts to
analyze climate issues for DS have not established credibility as independent. Need a
new organization with mandate and responsibility to conduct such analyses.
(3) (96/38-9717) Applied modeling: Often the essential poicy Qs are not known until time
of decision is at hand, so need capability for an ongoing response to policy Qs, not 2-
years lead-time for scenarios. Need process to support national policy on mitigation.
(4) (97/7-22) For regional/local levels and resources mgmnt assessment capability, NA-type
regional assessments may be starting point, recognizing that this is in an R %D stage
because limits of regional modeling.
(5) (97/24-98/13) Probably need to create via legislation a new org that is (and is perceived
to be) independent of political bias and reports to Executive branch and Congress on
climate issues. (Longer-term research budgets would reside in the agencies.)
(6) (98/16-22) CCRI inconsistency between timeframes and tasks, in both science and DS
components is obvious. Impossible to imagine in 2-4 years. .
(7) (98/22-39) Continues fallacy of 2-step: (1) resolve uncertainty, then (2) make decisions;
much uncertainty may be unresolvable, climate response will be ongoing process of
management under uncertainty, as with fiscal and monetary policy.
(8) (98/41-99/15) Conecting science to DS and policy is the most important and key
innovative idea in the plan, but Plan fails to describe how this will happen-DS
discussion is weak, superficial, and vague.
(9) (99116-10117) The idea that sensitivity and "what if' scenarios are useful for
decisionmaking is wrong. This idea should be deleted from the document-indicative of
a failure to interact with people who are really making decisions, or to understand what is
really going on. Real decisions cannot be conditional. Useful info requires much more
than just a scenario analysis.
(10)(101/8-45) Plan describes research that would require a $2 billion plus-up to carry
out. ... Without a lot of new $, DS to make use of our limited knowledge now is most
important aspect to get some support for.
Rock, U New Hampshire (103/4-10) DS, ChI3: NA: Must include a direct and unbiased
treatment of the NA and accompanying regional assessments-s-otherwise an unprofessional,
unscientific, and unacceptable treatment of a fully valid and extensive outreach effort. How
can a document designed for scientists allow such a blatantly political re-write of the facts?
Sarachik, U Washington
(1) (106/32-107/13: Timescales for DS: Natural timescale for decisionmaking is one year-
CCRI and USGCRP focus on longer timescales is less relevant than focus on seasonal-
interannual-decadal timescales.
(2) (107/13-27) Regionality and OS: Except for Pres and Congress, most decisionmaking
takes place on smaller scales' need seasonal-decadal regional climate info and DS-
Document sadly deficinet on shorter timescales, ignoring much of what we have learned
in USGCRP and recommendations of NRC reports.
(3) (107/29-108/22) Ch2, DS: CCRI priorities and Regional DS: Of the 3 components of
CCRI, only environment-society interactions research (DS) can be expected to yield
results over next 4 years. Aerosols, climate feedbacks, and obs/monitoring are long-term
research items. But plan doesn't indicate a serious effort-NOAA RISAprogram does
this, but is poorly funded. IRI, NCEP, ENSO observing system, and RISAs make up
CEQ 012309
most of the components of a regional climate info system for seasonal-interannual
timescales.
(4) (108/24-109/9) Obs and DS: Climate obs system can't be sustained w/o being part of a
system that delivers useful climate products. Until we have an operational organization
for climate, attempts to sustain obs system w/in research community will fail. Must
design and implement climate obs system as part of a useful product delivery system.
(5)(109/15-36) Plan not well thought out on what a DS system informed by climate info
really means. Much of what needs to go into DS is operational. Feds don't have the
expertise to design this system. A DS system is/should be a Climate Service. Must
include integrated obs and modeling system, a carefully designed relationship to research
(don't cannibalize USGCRP), CCRI can demonstrate the operating concepts.
Sagarin, UC Santa Barbara (110/4 I- I 1I/41) DS, Ch 11: Include work on currently available
technologies to reduce GHGs and identify barriers to mitigation steps; include economic
analysis of current carbon-intensive system versus alternatives, including environmental,
health, and other costs; "no regrest" scenarios.
Saw ins & Freyr, Worldwatch institute
(I) (113/21-37, 114/4- I 2» Ideological bias in emphasizing costs and risks of mitigation
while ignoring costs of impacts and adaptation and risks of delaying mitigation-research
program should cover thouroughly, including worst-case scenarios.
(2) (113/43-114/2) Uncertainty: Uncertainty not a reason to delay mitigation and discussion
of policy options.
(3) (114/14-115/3) Recognize that energy policy is integral part of the discussion;
Administration is unjustifiably dismissive of nonconventional energy sources.
(4) (115/5-31) Uncertainty: Also focus on uncertainties about potential costs and
consequences of all policy options-e.g., sequestration is very expensive, cuurent focus
on sequestration is indefensible
(I) (125/1 0-30) Integration: One way of providing program-wide integration would be a
framework focused on establishment and support of a Climate Information System for the
U.S. and world-to provide scientists and decisionmakers with info on nature and
consequences of CVe. Supporting a transition to applications is extremely important
programmativ objective not yet well-articulated in plan.
(2) (125/32-126/28) Implications of providing info to support decisionmaking: need to
address continuum of timescales; address today's problems while planning for the future;
include both adaptation and mitigation; understand and explore decision making
processes; sustained, interactive dialogue with decisionmakers
(3) (126/30-45) DS and Ch 13: Significant progress that has already been made in
establishing sustained dialogue between scientists and decisionmakers. Acknowledge
and support the stakeholder networks, education and outreach programs that have been
initiated in context of both IPCC and NA
(4) (12711-13) DS and Ch13: Important role of trusted "knowledge brokers," e.g., NWS,
extension agents, resource mgmnt agencies, NGOs
Smith, L.
(l) (130/16-29) Uncertainty: Need criteria for degree of confidence needed for info inputs
to policymaking
(2) (130/31 13112) Assessments: Clarify role of assessments: plan skirts critical role of
assessments in policy-relevant research program; Global Change Research Act explicitly
requires
, CEQ 012310
(3) (131/4-14. 132/2-18) Regional consequences: Sustain and build on National Assessment
focus on regional vulnerabilities and consequences; provide sufficient technical and
institutional support for regional consequences research and assessment
Stouffer, NOAA-GFDL (135/33-41) There is much uncertainty-Focus on reducing
uncertainty, not on providing info to policymakers. IPCC and National Assessment already
do that-acknowledge them and discuss what to keep or change. Thruout there is lack of
recognition of past efforts, e.g., IPCC and NA
Struble (136/10-24) Govt officials cannot keep politics out and focus exclusively on the
science-need strong university involvement for credibility, avoid appearance that scientific
program is designed to give aura of credibility to Bush policy.
US CLIVAR SSC (139/34-140/14) ChI, Ch4(applied modeling), Ch6, Acronyms: Correct
Columbia U (141/19-26) Same point as US CLIVAR SSC
Warrilow, UK Dept. of Environment (142/16-30) Ch I, OS: From policy viewpoint, major
scientific challenge is assessing impacts at various stabilization levels, ref "dangerous"
interference-presents a formidabe array of complex and integrated scientific challenges
Warrilow, UK Dept. of Environment (141/42-142/5,'142/12-15) Ch2, DS: Priority should be
given to improving understanding of climate system uncertainties, e.g., cloud-radiation
feedbacks, but overall there is an overemphasis on basic climate science and insufficient on
assessment of impacts and adaptation, and on socioeconomic aspects
Webb, NOAA (142/33-143-31) General, CM, Ch6: Need for a climate forecasting service (and
supporting research) for medium-range climate projections, regional variations, routine
credible diagnosis of evolving climate conditions, likely trajectory over next decade, credible
attribution for CVC
Weller et al., U Alaska (144/2-11) Glaring omission of NA should be rectified
Western Governors' Association
(1) (144/24-38) DS, Ch6: Adaptation: Focus on policy alternatives that make sense for a
wide range of plausible climatic conditions; form partnerships with the states, e.g., ref
Ch. 6, question #5
(2) (144/40-146/22) Strongly concur with linking the strategy to the needs of policymakers;
governors recognize importance of good science to decisionmaking. Exarrtple: National
Drought Policy Commission
(3) (146/16-22) Regional focus: Invest ins cience programs in western states; West is highly
variable from watershed to watershed
(4) (146/24-43) Partnership with states (references to "regional" level do not specifically
mention state governments; emphasize adaptation, facilitate good governance thru
improved decisionmaking, include a regional/state focus
Wiener (148/1-149/19) State of KnowledgelIPCC; placed-based analysis: IPCC syntheses are
cautious, conservative, behind-the-curve, but solid "science court" statements. Findings
solidly established-don't focus on re-doing-burden of proof is on those who would
overturn; focus insead on regional analyses of specific problems that are case, place, sector,
and policy relevant
Wilbanks, ORNL (150/28-31) Key issue for policy is the impacts of different stabilization levels
on people and ecosystems
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey
(1) (151/42-153/45) Ambiguity and inconsistency r~/ extent to which decisionmakers or
scientists are driving the plan. Don't see scientific needs of policy makers identified
explicitly. Clear that CCRI has not designed research needs to support clearly articulated
10
CEQ 012311
policy decisions. Mechanisms for USGCRPmanagement include "scientific guidance"
but not "decision support" .- Research agenda appears to be set largely by scientists- .
e.g., focus on "improve understanding," "reduce uncertainty" --little expression of what
is required for decisionmaking - need to pin decisionmakers down on identifying their
needs.
(2) (15411-155/4) Ch.1 and DS: Can argue that strategic goal should be to support
President's call to identify effective, least-cost strategies to stabilize GHG concentrations
and reduce scientific uncertainties. Then key policy Q is: What is the concentration level
to prevent dangerous human interference? CCSP could tackle scientific aspects of
defining "dangerous interference" and "level of GHG concentrations to be avoided," and
articulate role of science in value-laden risk assessment and risk-management framework.
Clarify roles of CCSP and NCCTI vis-a-vis mitigation, adaptation, and stabilization.
(3) (156/14-35) Modeling: CCRI section on Applied Climate Modeling is restricted to
global modeling 3f 2 centers - too narrow and restrictive, inconsistent wi President's
position on regional scale modeling; 2-center strategy is too narrow for a US plan-
states should get more recognition from scientific and policy perspectives
(4) (156/37-157/28) P. 41 says CCRI will focus on needed institutional changes for science-
policy linkage-What is the strategy for doing this? Without strategies and priorities
being identified and related to resource needs, not clear what products can or should be
produced.
(5) (157/38-158/7) Should synthesize all relevant research results (CCSP, US non-Federal,
international) relevant to US interests, not just CCSP-supported research
Chapter 5-Atmospheric Composition
Gupta, NASA GSFCIUMBC GEST (43/38-44/44) Focus on regional air quality/aerosols/ozone

links to GHGs
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/18-24) Ch5, 9, 10: Linkage issue: Impact of poor air quality on
carbon cycle and ecosystems
Soil Science, Glasener (133/26-29) Ch5, ChlO: Should include Np, a major GHG and driving
force
Chapter 6--CVC
Anderson, Harvard (7/1-23) -- Need more specific priorities on climate uncertainties

Baldwin, NW Research Associates (15/32-16/24) -- Annular modes
Bartlein, U. Oregon (17/26-18/7) -- rei paleoclimate
Busalacchi, U. Maryland (2l/25-39) - shortcomings of the chapter
Dailey, Independent researcher (29/8-24) -- ref paleo
Earth Climate Research Institute (3211-33113) - investigate natural hydrothermal/geophysical
ocean warming driver of climate change
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (3411-4) -- Much more focus on abrupt climate change and
its risks
General Motors (George Wolff) (42/33-36) -. Include solar forcing hypotheses
Hanso-i, LANL (46/2-13) Applied modeling: add sidebar on "projections" and "predictability"
here or in Ch. 4
Hoyt (4811-49113) specific technical points
11
CEQ 012312
Kato, Hampton U. (52/21-43) Ch6 & Obs - global radiation balance, regional energy balance
Kuhn, Institute for Astronomy (53/39-54/19) -focus on solar variability
'MacCracken, LLNL (ret.) (61/4-12) Ch2, Ch6: Clearly distinguish issue of climate change
projection from climate variability prediction-there are fundamental differences in approach
McIntosh (64/43-65/40) -- Can't model projected climate w/o reliable paleo record
Mearns, NCAR (66/2-3) -- Climate impacts: Needs detailed/explicit chapter/section
Meyer (66/33-67/2) -- Earth mantle energy flux
Millar, USDA (67/22-68/2) -- Paleoclimate and abrupt climate change
Mote, JSIAO/SMA (71/9-13) Ch 3,4,6, 10: Explicitly include bridge to seasonal forecasting
(1-20 year timescale)
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/11) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9,12: Modeling and uncertainty:
uncertainty
Osmond, Columbia U (86/22-8712) -- Plan neglects importance of experimental approach to
climate science
Pierrehumbert, U Chicago (87/5-13) Ch6: Paleoclimate modeling and analysis needs more
emphasis
Randall, Rainforest Regeneration Institute (90/6-22) Ch2, Ch3, Ch4 (Modeling): Uncertainty:
making models more realistic not likely to reduce uncertainty in predictive output
Rossow, NASA GISS (103/13-105/19) Ch2, Ch 6, Ch7: Flawed conception of climate system
Cycle.
Severinghaus, Scripps Institute (123143-124/38) Abrupt climate change
Stouffer, NOAA-GFDL (136/1-7) Ch2 and Ch6: Confusion in use of term "climate
sensitivity"
US CLIVAR SSC (139/34-140/14) ChI, Ch4(applied modeling), Ch6, Acronyms: Correct
Columbia U (141/19-26) Same point as US CLIVAR SSC
Webb, NOAA (142/33-143-31) General, Ch4, Ch6: Need for a climate forecasting service (and
supporting research) for medium-range climate projections, regional variations, routine
credible diagnosis of evolving climate conditions, likely trajectory over next decade, credible
attribution for CVC
Weller et al., U Alaska (143/34-45) Obs, Ch6: Should address polar regions more substantively
Western Governors' Association (144/24-38) DS, Ch6: Adaptation: Focus on policy
alternatives that make sense for a wide range of plausible climatic conditions; form
partnerships with the states, e.g., ref Ch. 6, question #5
Wielicki, NASA Langley (14712-17) Ch2, Obs, Ch6, Ch7: Major omission: There is no
Chapter 7--Water Cycle
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (36/18-30)

Laws, U. Hawaii (55/8-27) Ocean precip importance
12
CEQ 012313
I
,
,
,
,
f
I
,I
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/11) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9,12: Modeling and uncertainty:
uncertainty
Rossow, NASA GISS (103/13-105/19) Ch2, Ch 6, Ch7: Flawed conception of climate system
Cycle.
Titus, EPA (138/1-10) General & Ch.I, 7, 10, 11: Should focus less on IPCC WGI-type Qs,
and most in need of strategic plan. Better organization would be to start with the 5 questions
USGCRP Global Water Cycle SSG (140/17-141/16) Ch7: Issues that should be dealt with in
Water Cycle chapter
Wielicki, NASA Langley (14712-17) Ch2, Obs, Ch6, Ch7: Major omission: There is no
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey (158/22-26) Include focus on groundwater
Chapter 8--Land UselLand Cover
Hanson, LANL (46/2-13) Add sidebar on scale mismatches

Soil Science, Glasener (134/1-4) Clarify usage ofland use, land use change, land cover change
terminology
Chapter 9--Carbon Cycle
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (35/12-32) -- Carbon sequestration and links to tech
initiative
Hanson, ORNL (47/29-3) Needs more emphasis on soil carbon
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/1 I) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12: Modeling and uncertainty:
uncertainty
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/18 724) Ch5,9, 10: Linkage issue: Impact of poor air quality on
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey (158/15-20) Should address global sources/sinks of
carbon, not just N. America. Water cycle doesn't just focus on N. America.
Chapter 10--Ecosystems
Jay, OGI School of Sci. & Eng. (51/30-36) Need focus on global change in estuaries and coastal
waters, impact on primary production
Millar, USDA (68/4-20) -- incorporate paleoecology lesson on importance of
threshholdlnonlinear change
Mote, JSIAO/SMA (71/9-13) To Ch 3, 4,6, 10: Explicitly include bridge to seasonal
forecasting (1-20 year timescale)
13
CEQ 012314
Pierrehurnbert, U Chicago (88/6-17) Ch4, Ch 10: Plan has large bias toward adaptation, fails to
consider worst-case impacts, whether adaptation feasible for natural ecosystems
Randall, Rainforest Regeneration Institute (8917-90/4) Ch2, ChlO: Physical climatology mostly
well-established (IPCC WG 1), but ecosystem responses and vulnerabilities not as well-
understood (IPCC WG2}-So the Plan is unbalanced toward overemphasizing reduction of
WG l-type uncertainty rather than the much greater WG2-type uncertainties
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/18-24) ChS.9, 10: Linkage issue: Impact of poor air quality on
Soil Science, Glasener (133/26-29) Ch5, ChlO: Should include Np, a major GHG and driving
force; (134/6-9) Process models need to be developed at farm and field scale
Thompson, NOAA (136/27-45) Very terrestrial-centric-Little attention to oceans as carbon sink
or to fisheries and marine ecosystems; Usage of "ecosystem" and "environment"
terminology
Titus, EPA (138/1-10) General & cn.i, 7, 10, 11: Should focus less on IPCC WGI-type Qs,
Chapter II-Human Contributions and Responses
IRI, Zebiak and staff (49/15-50/41) (also to Decision Support) -- Focus on developing capability
to effectively use forecasts on seasonal-interannual timescales; Uncertainty: annual-decadal
fluctuations perhaps a more important uncertainty for decisionmakers than uncertainty in
long-term projections; human dimensions should focus on how insitutions and decision
systems use seasonal-interannual forecast info
Magaard/Grossman (62/12-36) -- Need research on the full arena of change, technological and
socioeconomic
Morehouse, U. Arizona (70/31-37) Social science component too narrow for usable science
program
Organization Presidents letter to Mahoney (AGU, AMS, APS, et al.) (85/14-86/19) -- Ch 4 and
Ch 11: CCSP needs formal program of Vulnerability and Resilience Research as support for
societal response strategy - regional vulnerability assessments, preparedness
recommendations, vulnerability and resilience research
Pierrehumbert, U Chicago (88/1-4) Ch2, Ch3, Ch4, Ch 11: Climate and disease is so important
should be in the CCRI section
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/32-37) ChI 1, 13: Linkage issue: Communication of key HD
findingss to public and policymakers an essential component ofHD, don't assume will be
handled by Outreach ChI3.
Sagarin, UC Santa Barbara (110/41-111141) DS, Chl1: Include work on currently available
technologies to reduce GHGs and identify barriers to mitigation steps; include economic
analysis of current carbon-intensive system versus alternatives, including environmental,
health, and other costs; "no regrest" scenarios.
Shea, East-West Center (128/23-25) Integration, Ch 11: More fully integrate HD in all chapters
Soil Science, Glasener (133/38-40) Ch 11: Importance of population growth
Titus, EPA (138/1-10) General & Ch.l , 7,10,11: Should focus less on IPCC WGI-type Qs,
'>
14
CEQ 012315
Wilk, Indiana U (150/39-151/39) No reference to NRC report on Wnvironmentally Significant
Consumption-an issue of great importance-references to "human driving forces" and
"living standards" obscure the state of knowledge--thousands of social scientists worldwide
are studying consumer culture-how can you leave social dynamics of consumption out of
plan?-Issue is sustainable consumption
Chapter 13--Reporting and Outreach
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (36/32-36)

Fisher, Penn State U (41/,38-42/6) -- Evaluation of DS tools and outreach is a research area in its
own right
Mote, JSIAO/SMA (71/44-46) -- (Include need for program to train scientists in art of
communication
Raps, independent scholar (91/26-35) DS and Ch I 3: Should think in terms of "citizens," not
"stakeholder" groups. (See Mike Sprague's Outreach panel comments)
Rock, U New Hampshire
(1) (I03/4-1O) OS, Ch 13: NA: Must include a direct and unbiased treatment of the NA and
accompanying regional assessments--otherwise an unprofessional, unscientific, and
unacceptable treatment of a fully valid and extensive outreach effort. How can a
document designed for scientists allow such a blatantly political re-write of the facts?
(2) (102/32-37) Ch 11, 13: Linkage issue: Communication of key HD findingss to public
and policymakers an essential component of HD, don't assume will be handled by
Outreach Ch 13.
(3) (102/39-103/2) Ch 13: Most effective research occurs thru public/private collaboratrive
efforts, and are at regional/local levels.
(1) (126/30-45) OS and Ch I 3: Significant progress that has already been made in
establishing sustained dialogue between scientists and decisionmakers. Acknowledge
and support the stakeholder networks, education and outreach programs that have been
initiated in context of both IPCC and NA
(2) (127/1-13) OS and Ch13: Important role of trusted "knowledge brokers," e.g., NWS,
extension agents, resource mgmnt agencies, NGOs
Chapter 14--Intemational
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (34/6-23) (36/38-37/19)

Gates, LLNL (42/8-16)
Chapter IS-Management and Review
Barnett, UCSD (17/15-24) -- Need organization & $ for highly-directed focused

interdisciplinary teams; Management structure outlined is business as usual
Bindschadler, NASA (19/30-44) -- Need independent annual Academy review of progress
toward goals of plan
15
CEQ 012316
Busalacchi, U. Maryland (21/35-22/9)-Integration/management - This draft suggests problem
not solved
Schoeberl, NASA (116/10-19) How will the plan incorporate "updates?"
Wilbanks,ORNL (150/33-36) Clarify relationship of CCSP to CCTP; Showing links on an org
chart isn't sufficient
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey (156/4-12) Clarify how CCRI and USGCRP are
directed, by whom, and how
16
CEQ 012317
CHAPTER 5 - ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
Question 1: What are the climate-relevant chemical and radiative
properties, and spatial and temporal distributions, of human-caused
and naturally occurring aerosols?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Ql), CH3(Ql,Q2),

CH4(Q2),CH7(Ql,Q2), CHIO(Ql)
• What are the sources of atmospheric aerosols, and what are their magnitudes and
variabi Iity?
• What are the global distributions and radiative characteristics of aerosols?
• What are the processes that control the spatial and temporal distributions and
variability of aerosols and that modify their chemical and radiative properties
during transport, and how well can these processes and resulting spatial
distributions currently be simulated?
• How do aerosols affect a cloud's radiative properties and ability to generate
precipitation?
Question 2: What is the current quantitative skill for simulating the

atmospheric budgets of the growing suite of chemically active
greenhouse gases and their implications for the Earth's energy balance?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS -CH3(Q2), CH6(QI), CH7CQ2),

CH8CQ2), CH9(Ql), CHlOCQl), CH12CQl),
Driven by the need to have a predictive understandingof the relationship between the
emission sources of these gases and their global distributions and radiative forcing,
several question face the research community. These include:
• What are global anthropogenic and natural (biospheric - see Chapter 10) sources
of C1-4 and N 20?
• What are the causes of the observed large variations in their growth rate?
• What are the global anthropogenic and natural sources (both biogenic and
lightning-related) of nitrogen oxides?
• What are the trends in mid-tropospheric ozone, particularly in the Northern
Hemisphere, and how well can the variations be attributed to causes?
•. What water vapor observations will best test and improve the understanding of the
water vapor feedback?
Question 3: What are the effects of regional pollution on the global

atmosphere and the effects of global climate and chemical change on
regional air quality and atmospheric chemical inputs to ecosystems?
CEQ 012318
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH7(Q4), CH8(Q5), CHIO(Ql),
CHll(Ql, Q4)
• What are the chemical exposures experienced by food-producing areas that are in
proximity to large urban areas?
• How do the primary and secondary pollutants from the world's megacities
contribute to global atmospheric composition?
• What are, and what contributes to, North American "background" levels of air
quality-that is, what levels of pollution are beyond national control?
Question 4: What are the time scale and other characteristics of the
recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in response to declining
abundances of ozone-depleting gases and increasing abundances of
greenhouse gases?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q3), CHIO(Ql)

• How will changes in the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gases, such as C02
and N20, and the resulting changes in the radiation and temperature balance (e.g.,
stratospheric cooling), alter ozone-related processes?
• How will changes in the physical climate affect the distributions of ozone (e.g.,
unusually cold Arctic winters and particle-enhanced ozone-loss processes)?
• What are the ozone-depleting and radiative forcing properties of new chemicals, such
as the substitutes for the now-banned ozone-depleting substances?
Question 5: What are the couplings among climate change, air pollution,
and ozone layer depletion, which were once considered as separate issues?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CHIO(Ql), CH2(Q3), CH6(Ql),

CHll(QI)
• How do actions taken or considered with regard to one issue influence other
issues, positively or negatively?
• What are the multiple stresses that climate change, ozone layer depletion, and
regional air quality exert on humans and ecosystems?
CEQ 012319
CHAPTER 6 - CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Question 1. What is the sensitivity of climate change projections to

feedbacks in the climate system?
HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS: CH2(Q2,Q3), CH5(Ql,Q2),

CH3(1), CH7(Q2), CH8(Q5), CH9(Q3), CHIO(Ql), CH12(Ql)
• What are the key feedbacks in the climate system that determine the magnitude
and time histories of climate changes for a specified radiative forcing, and how and
to what extent can uncertainties in these feedbacks be reduced?
• How sensitive are climate change projections to various strategies for limiting
changes in radiative forcing, such as by enhancing biogeochemical sequestration or
limiting changes in land use and cover?
• How can observations of the Earth's past variations in climate be used to reduce
uncertainties concerning climate sensitivity. and feedbacks and to provide bounds
for the major elements of climate change projections for the next century?
• How may information about climate sensitivity and feedbacks be used to develop
effective strategies for the design and deployment of observational systems?
Question 2. To what extent can predictions of near-term climate

fluctuations and projections of long-term climate change be improved,
and what can be done to extend knowledge of the limits of
predictability?
HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH12(Ql,Q2), CH7(Ql, Q3),

CH3(Q2), CH5(Ql,Q3,Q4), CH4(Q3),
• How can advances in observations, process understanding, and modeling of
tropical ocean variability, especially related to ENSO, be exploited to further
improve climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales?
• How long does it take for the climate to equilibrate after responding to changes in
the land surface, the deep ocean, or sea ice, and how does this "memory"
contribute to climate predictability on multi-year to decadal time scales?
• How are changes in oceans, ice cover, the solid earth, and terrestrial storage
currently influencing sea level, and what will be their influence on sea level in the
future?
• What is the potential for improved representation of modes of climate variability,
such as the PDO and the AO, to extend and improve climate predictions?
• How might human-induced changes that affect the climate system, such as changes
in atmospheric composition and aerosols, or changes in ground cover and land use,
alter climate forcing and hence climate variability and predictability?
• How do current and projected climate changes compare with past changes and
variations in the climate in terms of patterns, magnitudes, and regional .
manifestations? For example, is the magnitude and time scale of the observed zo"
century warming of the Arctic unprecedented in the last 1,000 to 10,000 years?
CEQ 012320
Question 3. What is the likelihood of climate-induced changes that are
significantly more abrupt than expected, such as the collapse of the
thermohaline circulation or rapid melting of the major ice sheets?
HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q3), CH3(Q2), CHI0(Ql)

• What are the primary natural mechanisms for abrupt climate changes?
• How common are they, based on past climate records?
• How soon might future abrupt changes be expected to occur and what would be
the expected global and regional manifestations of such changes?
• What is the nature and extent of abrupt climate change in the Holocene? Are these
stochastic events or the result of periodic forcing?
• What are the environmental consequences of extreme warming in the Arctic and
how do these changes feed back to the global climate system?
Question 4. Whether and how are the frequencies, intensities, and

locations of extreme events, such as major droughts, floods, wildfires,
heat waves, and hurricanes, altered by natural climate variations and
human-induced climate changes?
HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH7(Ql), CH8(Ql)

• What are the main climatic and hydrological causes of floods and droughts (see
also Chapter 7)?
• How are climate extremes, intensities, frequencies, and locations likely to change
over the next century in the United States, and what are the causes of these
changes?
• What is the potential for high-impact climate changes, such as much drier and
warmer summers over the mid-continents of North America and Eurasia,
accelerated Arctic warming, and more intense coastal storm surges and coastal
erosion due to rising sea levels?
• How can the emerging findings of climate science be best formulated to
contribute to evaluation of societal and environmental vulnerability and
opportunities?
• To what extent are extreme events predictable?
Question 5. How can interactions between producers and users of

climate variability and change information be optimally structured to
ensure essential information needed for formulating adaptive
management strategies is. identified and provided to decisionmakers and
policymakers?
HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH7(Q5), CH9(Q6), CHll(Q2)
CEQ 012321
• What are the regions and sectors for which improved climate information is most
important, and who are the decisionmakers for whom such information would be
most useful?
• Whattypes of new climate information would provide the greatest potential for
benefits, and what specific types of climate information would be most useful in
formulating adaptive management strategies?
• Whatare the most likely vulnerabilities and opportunities arising from climate
variability and potentialfuture climate changes, and what climate indicators
would be of the most benefit in, assessing climate vulnerability and resilience in
sectorssuch as agriculture, water, and other environmental resources, and for
assessing other potential societal impacts (positive and negative), including
human health? With what frequency and timing do these indicators need to be
provided in order to allow maximum adaptive response to climate-induced
change?
• Whatare potential entry points and barriersto the use of climate information, and
how can access to and understanding of climate information and predictionsbe
accelerated and simplified to realize their greatest value to the scientific
community, public, and decisionmakers?
.j
."
-.',
CEQ 012322
CHAPTER 7 - WATER CYCLE
Question 1: To what extent does the water cycle vary and change with
time, and what are the internal mechanisms and external forcing
factors, including human activities, responsible for variability and
change?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH5(QI), CH6(Q4), CH8(Q5),

CHIO(Q2), CHll(QI)
• How have the characteristics of the water cycle changed in recent years, and are
the changes due to natural variability or human induced causes?
• What are the key mechanisms and· processes responsible for maintaining the
global water cycle and its variability over those space and time scales relevant for
climate?
• How are the rates of regional groundwater recharge, soil moisture availability,
and runoff production affected by changing global precipitation patterns, .
vegetation distributions, and cryospheric processes (processes occurring in frozen
regions)?
• How have changes in land use and water management infrastructure and practices
affected trends in regional and global water cycles?
Question 2: How do feedback processes control the interactions between

the global water cycle and other parts of the climate system (e.g., carbon
cycle, energy), and how are these feedbacks changing over time'?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q3), CH5(QI), CH6(QI),

CH8(Q5), CH9(Q3), CHIO(QI)
• What is the sign and magnitude of the net water vapor-cloud-radiation-climate
feedback effect and how does it vary with latitude and season?
• How do changes in water vapor and water vapor gradients, from the stratosphere
to the surface, affect climate variables such as radiation fluxes, surface radiation
budgets, cloud formation and distribution, and precipitation patterns, globally and
regionally?
• How do aerosols, their chemical composition, and distribution affect cloud
formation and precipitation processes and patterns?
• How do freshwater fluxes to and from the ocean that affect the global ocean
circulation and climate vary, and how may they be changing?
• How do changes in global and regional water cycles feed back on biogeochemical
processes (e.g., vegetative growth and carbon sequestration), in cold regions
where climate change is expected to have a substantial impact on permafrost
melting, seasonal Snow packs, and freeze/thaw cycles?
• How do changes in global and regional water cycles feed back on tropical and
higher-latitude regions in the form of altered frequencies of droughts, floods, and
storms, including hurricanes? .
CEQ 012323
Question 3: What are the key uncertainties in seasonal to interannual
predictions and long-term projections of water cycle variables, and
what improvements are needed in global and regional models to reduce
these uncertainties?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH3(Q2), CH12(Q2),CH6(Q2)
• For different model resolutions, how can key water cycle processes be better
simulated in current climate models, in order to enhance the capability of
producing more accurate seasonal to interannual predictionsof watercycle
variables?
• How can the representation of water cycle processes in climatechange models be
improved to reduce uncertainties in climate change projections for hydrologic
variables?
• What are the critical hydrological and atmospheric factors that are present in
major flood and drought events that can be isolated, quantified, and incorporated
into water cycle prediction methodologies?
• To what extent will the seasonality, intensity, and variability of high latitude
freshwater fluxes (evapotranspiration, runoff) and stores (soil moisture,
permafrost) change as a result of climate warming?
• How can we best characterize the uncertainty in the prediction of water cycle
variables and effectively communicate this uncertainty to water resource
managers?
Question 4: How do the water cycle and its variability affect the
availability and quality of water supplied for human consumption,
economic activity, agriculture, and natural ecosystems; and how do its
interactions and variability affect sediment and nutrient transports, and
the movement of toxic chemicals and other biogeochemical substances?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH8(Ql), CH5(Q3), CHIO(Ql),

CHll(Ql,Q4)
• How does the water cycle interact through physical, chemical, biophysical, and
microbiological processes with other Earth system componentsat the watershed
scale?
• How do changes in climate, land cover, and non-pointwaste discharges alter
water availability, water quality, and the transport of sediments, nutrients, and
other chemicals, and how do these changes affect human and ecosystem health?
• How do surface and subsurface processes change the quality of water available
for human and environmental uses?
Question 5: What are the consequences of global water cycle variability

and change, at a range of temporal and spatial scales, for human
societies and ecosystems? How can the results of global water cycle
CEQ 012324
research be used to inform policy and water resource management
decision processes?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH3(Q5), CH4(Ql,Q4),

CH6(Q5), CH8(Q5), CHIO(Ql,Q3), CHll(Ql)
• How can water cycle research products, such as the hydroclimatological
projections (predictions of future states of hydrologic components (e.g., runoff) of
the climate system) and forecasts from global and regional climate models,
remote sensing data streams, and snow pack information, be deployed to improve
policy decisions and water resource management?
• What is the best means for transferring climate/watercycle variability and long-
term change information into operational reservoir management and hydropower
production, and the planning and design of water resources infrastructure?
• Whatare the gaps in current understanding of water cycle functions critical to US
riparian (relating to rivers) and estuary environments and what research activities
are needed to close those gaps?
• Whatare the implications of water cycle research for managing conflicting
demands on transboundary waters?
• Whatare the current patterns of water consumption and how are they likely to
change as a result of potential changes in temperature, land cover and land use,
demographics, and water policies?
• What kinds of changes in institutional arrangements and management practices
will be needed to respond to changes in water resource availability over a range of
temporal and spatial scales?
CEQ 012325
CHAPTER 8 - LAND USEILAND COVER CHANGE
Question I: What are the primary drivers of land use and land cover
change?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Ql), CH6(Q4), CH7(Q4),
CH9(Q4)
• How does the historical developmentand spread of land uses reveal the various
events and trends that shaped its expansion at different points inthe past?
• Why and how have land use and land management systems (e.g., agriculture)
spread historically?
• How have the driving forces of change affected the rates and patterns of historical
and contemporary change at different (i.e, local, regional, and global) scales?
• How, and to what extent, do extreme events (e.g., natural hazards, public health
emergencies, and war) affect land use and land cover change?
• How will environmental, institutional, political, technological, demographic, and
economic processes determine the temporal and spatial distribution of land use
and land cover over the next 50 years?
Question 2: What tools or methods are needed to allow for better

characterization of historic and current land use and land cover
characteristics and dynamics?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Q2), CH9(Q3,Q4),

CH5(Q2,Q3), CHIO(Ql), CHll(Ql), CH12(Ql,Q3)
• What are the current patterns and attributes of land use and land cover at national
to global scales that affect the carbon cycle, atmospheric processes, and
ecosystem form and function?
• What are the national andglobal rates, patterns, and characteristics of
contemporary land use and land cover change?
• Where are the current hotspots of rapid land use and land coverchange at the
national and global levels?
. • What improvements need to be made to current observing systems and what
programs need to be put in place to provide the necessary long-term data and
information to support the study of land use and land cover change at the global,
regional, and national scale?
• What are the methodological advances needed to improve land use and land cover
change analyses, including strategies for integrating ground-based data,
socioeconomic statistics (e.g., census information), and remotely sensed
measurements?
CEQ 012326
Question 3: What advances are required to allow for the projection of
land use and land cover patterns and characteristics 10-50 years into
the future?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Q2,Q3)

• What are the research challenges associated with developing a new generation of
land use models resulting from multiple and potentially interacting agents and
causes and that address environmental and socioeconomic impacts?
• Given specific climate, demographic, and socioeconomic projections, what is the
current level of skill in projecting characteristics ofland use and land cover
change 5, 10, 20, 40, and 50 years into the future?
Question 4: How can projections be made of potential land cover and

land use change over the next 10-50 years for use in models of impacts
on the environment, social and economic systems, and human health?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Q3), CHIO(Q2), CHll(Ql,Q2)

• How wi II acute land use change stress or enhance the productivity of our natural
resource base and the industries that depend on it, including agriculture and forestry?
• How will changes in urban and rural land use and land cover influence the spatial
and temporal distribution of wildlife and what are the resulting economic, social,
and ecological impacts?
• How will the form and use of public lands change given different climate change
scenarios, and how will those changes affect the management of the vital
economic and ecological resources of those lands?
Question 5: What are the combined effects of climate and land use and
land cover change and what are the potential feedbacks?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - ~H4(Q2), CH6(Ql),
CH7(Ql,Q2,Q5), CHIO(Ql)
• How will the combined effects of land use and climate change affect agriculture,
aquatic ecosystems, rangeland, and forest extent and productivity, and what are
the implications for land management and economics?
• How does the combined stress of climate and land use change affect our ability to
mitigate and manage greenhouse gases?
• What is the impact of future changes in land use and land cover on water supply
and quality, considering climate-induced changes in the patterns and
characteristics of water resources (research will be undertaken with the Water
Cycle team)?
• Using focused case studies, how can landholders, land managers, and
decisionmakers formulate land use and land management decisions and practices
at various scales in light of cl imate change?
CEQ 012327
CHAPTER 9 - CARBON CYCLE
Question 1: What are the magnitudes and distributions of North

American carbon sources and sinks and what are the processes
controlling their dynamics?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q2), CH5(Q2), CH12(Ql)
• How large and variable are North American carbon sources and sinks?
• What are the most important mechanisms, both natural and human caused, that
control North American carbon sources and sinks, and how will they change in
the future?
• How much do North America and adjacent ocean basins contribute to the
Northern Hemisphere carbon sink?
Question 2: What are the magnitudes and distributions of ocean carbon

sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales, and which
processes control their dynamics?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH6(Ql), CHIO(Ql)
• What are the locations and magnitudes of global ocean carbon sources and sinks?
• What biogeochemical, ecological, and physical processes control the uptake and
release of carbon in the ocean, and how may these processes change in the future
due to elevated atmospheric C02 and climate change? CH6, CHIO
Question 3: What are the magnitudes and distributions of global

terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric carbon sources and sinks and how
are they changing over time?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH6(1), CH7(Q2), CH8(Q2)

• What is the current state of the global carbon cycle?
• What natural processes and human activities control carbon emissions and uptake
around the world?
• How will changes in climate, atmospheric C02 concentration, and human activity
influence carbon sources and sinks both regionally and globally?
Question 4: What are the effects of past, present, and future land use
change and resource management practices on carbon sources and
sinks?
CEQ 012328
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Ql,Q4), CH8(Ql,Q2),
CHll(Ql)
4' What are the roles of past and current land use and management in terrestrial
carbon sources and sinks at local to continental scales?
• How do resource management practices and likely future changes in management
affect carbon that is stored in terrestrial ecosystems and durable products?
• How do social, political, and economic forces influence human decisions
regarding land use and resource management, and how might changes in these
forces affect the carbon cycle?
Question 5: What will be the future atmospheric carbon dioxide and

methane concentrations, and how will terrestrial and marine carbon
sources and sinks change in the future?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q2), CH5(Q2),

CH8(Q5), CH12(Q2)
• What are important land use-climate-carbon cycle interactions and feedbacks, and
which have the potential to lead to anomalous responses?
• How will carbon sinks and sources respond to future increases in CO 2, changes in
climate, and inherent natural variability?
• How can we best represent carbon cycle processes in models to produce realistic
projections of atmospheric concentrations?
• How will the distribution, strength, and dynamics of global carbon sources and
sinks change in the in the next few decades and in the next few centuries?
Question 6: How will the Earth system, and its different components,
respond to various options being considered by society for managing
carbon in the environment, and what scientific information is needed
for evaluating these options?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Ql,Q2), CH6(Q5)

• What are potential magnitudes, mechanisms, and longevity of carbon
sequestration by terrestrial and marine systems?
'. How will elevated C02, climatic variability and change, and other environmental
factors and changes (such as air, water, and land pollution; changing landscapes
and natural disturbance; and intrinsic human productivity) affect carbon cycle
management approaches?
• What scientific and socioeconomic criteria should be used to evaluate the
sensitivity of the carbon cycle and the vulnerability and sustainability of carbon
management approaches?
CEQ 012329
.;
CHAPTERI0-ECO~YSTEMS
Question 1: What are the most important.linkages and feedbacks

between ecosystems and global change (especially climate), and what
are their quantitative relationships?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Ql),

CH5(Ql,Q2,Q3,Q5), CH6(Ql,Q3), CH7(Q5)
• How might various global and regional environmental changes (e.g., temperature
and precipitation) affect net ecosystem exchanges (or timing or geographic
distribution of those exchanges) of greenhouse gases?
• How might changes in climate and greenhouse gas concentrations, in combination
with other factors such as land use/cover changes, affect nutrient cycling,
ecosystem albedo, and energy exchange?
• How might changes in regional air quality, including chemicals and aerosols
released from disturbances such as wildfires and crop residue burning, in
combination with other global changes, affect ecosystem albedo and exchange of
greenhouse gases? :'
• How might changes in ecosystems (particularly in the Arctic) alter ocean
circulation, and could this contribute to abrupt changes in regional climates?
• How might various human activities, including redistribution of nutrients and
water, affect the release or uptake of greenhouse gases by various ecosystems
(e.g., wetlands, croplands, deserts, tundra', pastures and rangeland,
coastal/estuarine systems, forests, lakes and rivers, and urban areas)?
Question 2: What are the potential consequences of global change for

ecosystems and the delivery of their goods and services?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH7(Ql), CHl1(Q4)

• What are the effects of multiple environmental changes on the structure,
functioning, and biodiversity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly
changes in CO 2, ozone, temperature, nitrogen cycling, UV radiation, sea level
rise, precipitation patterns, and regional and global ocean circulation?
• How do changes in climate, climate variability, or weather variability intensify or
mitigate the effects of other ecosystem stresses (e.g., pollution, invasive species,
and changes in land and resource use)?
• What impacts will global environmental change have on the delivery of
ecosystem goods and services such as forest and agricultural productivity,
groundwater recharge, flood protection, fisheries, and recreation, and which will
have the greatest socioeconomic impacts on humans?
• How do changes in climate and weather (both variability and extremes) affect the
ecology and epidemiology of infectious pathogens, dissemination by their vectors,
and the susceptibility of the humans, animals, and plants that are their hosts?
CEQ 012330
Question 3: What are the options for sustaining and improving
ecosystem goods and services valued by societies, given projected global
changes?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Ql,Q4), CH7(QS)

• How could aquatic ecosystems (e.g., rivers and coral reefs) be managed to
balance the productionand sustenance of ecosystem services across multiple
demands (e.g., management of rivers to supply freshwater fordrinking, irrigation,
recreation, and aquatic species; and management of coral reefs for tourism,
erosion protection, refugia for commercially and recreationally important species,
recreational and culturalactivities, and biodiversity), considering the future
effects of interacting global changes? CH7
• How might terrestrial ecosystems such as rangelands, forests, woodlands, and
agricultural lands be managed to balance the production and sustenance of
ecosystem services across multiple demands (e.g., food, fiber, fuel, fodder,
recreation, non-wood forest products, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycles,
tourism, and flood and storm control), considering the futureeffects of interacting
global changes? CH8
• Whatoptions exist for society to preserve genetic diversity, respond to species
migrations or declines, and manage changing disease incidence and severity in the
face of environmentalchange? CH11
• What are the effects of management techniques on global or regional
environments (e.g., atmospheric chemistry; water supply quantity and quality),
nitrogen cycling, and the maintenance of health, productivity, and resilience of
ecosystems?
• What dependency, use and value do societies have for non-market services
provided by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems?
CEQ 012331
CHAPTER 11 - HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES TO
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Question 1: What are the magnitudes, interrelationships, and

significance of the primary human drivers of change in atmospheric
composition and the climate system, changes in land use and land cover,
and other changes in the global environment?

CH7(Ql,Q5), CH9(Q4,Q5), CH10(Q2)
• What are the key processes and trends associated with population growth and
demographic change, technological change, and trade and global economic
activity, and how can improved understanding of these issues be used to improve
scenarios and projections of global change?
Population growth and demographic change

• What are the relationships among demographic changes, migration, and other
related variables such as economic productivity, energy use, and ecosystem
services?
• How do people use information and form perceptions about potential changes in
health status to make decisions about migration, compared to information and
perceptions about other factors, such as economic status?
Technological change
• What induces technological innovation and adoption of new technologies?
• What affects the transfer of technology from country to country?
• What can be predicted about the future of energy technologies, carbon
sequestration options, and agricultural productivity?
• How do food production decisions (including land use, technology choice, and
exposure to chemicals) affect environmental change?
Trade and global economic activity

• What influences the movement of goods and services domestically and from one
country to another, and how do operational and technological changes affect
economic productivity and energy use?
• How are environmental risks to health affected by structural economic changes,
such as shifts from rural to urban lifestyles, changing modes of transportation, and
openness to international trade?
• How is growth in economic productivity and increasing energy use related to
emissions of contaminants and changes in land and water use?
CEQ 012332
Question 2: What are the current and potential future impacts of global
environmental variability and change on human welfare, what factors
influence the capacity of human societies to respond to change, and how
can resilience be increased and vulnerability reduced?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH6(Q5), CH7(Q4,Q5),

CH8(Q2)
• How may methods be refined to accurately assess the combined impacts of
climate change, changes in water quality and availability, land use change, sea
level rise, and ecosystem change?
• How does vulnerability in human systems to global environmental change
develop and how can it be reduced?
• What are the determinants of and processes associated with the capacity for
adaptation? .
• How can society use improved information about the climate system and its
potential impacts to adapt more effectively to possible future changes?
Question 3: How can the methods and capabilities for societal

decisionmaking under conditions of complexity and uncertainty about
global environmental variability and change be enhanced?

CH7(Q4,Q5), CH10(Q2)
How can methods or approaches be improved:
• For representing, propagating, analyzing, describing, and communicating
uncertainties?
• For understanding the economic costs and opportunities (societal, organizational,
and individual) from global climatic variability and change?
• For representing how individuals, organizations, and societies make choices
regarding threats whose consequences are long-term and uncertain?
• For evaluating and comparing the effectiveness of different approaches to
modeling decisionmaking?
• For understanding the role of private, governmental, and social decisionmaking
affecting health and environmental outcomes?
Question 4: What are the potential human health effects of global

environmental change, and what tools and climate and environmental
information are needed to assess and address the cumulative risk to
health from these effects?
CEQ 012333
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Q2)
• What are the impacts of changes in water quantity and quality, temperature,
ecosystems, land use, and climate on infectious disease, and can the capacity for
prevention, early detection, and effective response be improved?
• What are the impacts of atmospheric and climatic changes on the health effects
associated with ambient air quality and UV radiation?
• What are the health effects and effective response strategies associated with
temperature extremes and with extreme weather events?
• What are the best methods for assessing climate-related health impacts and for
developing useful tools and information products to enhance public health?
• What effects will new technologies for global change mitigation and adaptation
have on human health?
CEQ 012334
0519_f_2013g003_ceq
RECORD TYPE: FEDERAL (N OTES MAIL)
CREATOR: phi 1 cooney ( CN =phi 1 cooney /ou= CEQ/O=EOP [ CEQ ] )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 2-MA Y-2003 09:07:42.00
SUBJECT:: My comments on CCSP drafts -- Davi d f you wi 11 synthesi ze wi th other

comments today. THANKS, phi 1
TO:Kathie L. olsen ( CN=Kathie L. olsen/ou=osTP/O=EOP@EOP [OSTP ] )

READ: UNKNOWN
TO:David Halpern (CN=David Halpern/OU=OSTP/O=EOP@EOP [ OSTP] )

READ: UNK NOWN
CC:Bryan J. Hannegan ( C N=Bryan J. Hanne gan/OU=CEQ/O=EO P@EOP [ CEQ] )

READ:UNKNOWN
CC:watsonh1@state ( Wats onh'lsscate [ UNK NOWN ] )

READ: UNKNOWN
CC:Marcus Peacock ( CN=Marcus peacock/oU=OMB/O=EOP@EOP [ OMB ] )

READ: UNK NOWN
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CEQ 012701
THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM:
VISION, MISSION, OBJECTIVES, STRATEGIES, AND PRIORITIES
DEFINITION of Climate Change ( Formatted: Font: No_t_lta_I_IC_ _--'
C,limate change is seasonal-to-millennium natural and anthropogenic variations of Earth's ( Fonnatted: Font: Not Itahc
atmosphere. ecosystems, fresh water. ice, oceans, and snow. It also includes human systems.
VISION for the Climate Change Science Program
Enable informed stewardship ofclimate sensitive resources/what is the meaning o( "climate

sellsitil'e resources?/ through research and partnerships to benefit present andfuture
generations
Ensure creatillnll(knoll'ledge aCclimate change (or the benefit oral!

(The 10-vear plan should emphasize creation ofknowledge.l ( Fonnatted: Font: Not Bold
Climate and climate variability play. important roles in shaping the environment, natural Deleted: san
resources, infrastructure, the economy, and other important aspects of our way of life. !The Deleted: Naturalchmate varrabihtv, the
risk of human-induced changes In chmete
previous sentence is deleted because "natural climate variabilitv" (e,g .. El1\ino) does have and related environmental SYStems, and
"substantial, environmental, economic. and societal consequences".) Eublic and private sector potentialadaptationand murgaucn
opllons may have substantial
decision makers will need reliable and readily understood information about climate change to environmental, econcmrc,and socretal
rnake scientifically informed decisions. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) will consequences
ensurc;scientific,understanding of the Earth's climate and climate variations to benefit present Deleted: Thc full spectrumof p
and future generations.. Deleted: comparethe pctennal
Implications of different strategies and
actions and
MISSION and OBJECTIVES of the CCSP
Deleted: envurons a world where
IMission nnd Objectives should be separated. Re: objectives 01' goals, what is the legacy of Deleted: advance, support stewardship
of climate sensitive resources to benefit
the program in 10 yenrs when a new plan is developed? Is a c1imnte observing system a present and futuregenerations Thts WIll
(egan..? Is climnte modeling a legacv?1 require more than an Improved scrennfle
Deleted: environment andhow It IS
changing, but also development of new
Tile CCSP wlllfacllitate observation, understanding, prediction, and assessment oftrends ill capabrhues for assessment and
the Eartlt's global environment, focusing on natural and human-induced climate variation mterpretauen of SCientific information
The CCSP Will work m close partnership
and change, and the resulting implications for environmental and human systems. Withthe Internationalscience ccmmutnty,
pobcymakers, and pubhe and private
sector managers
The CCSP will be guided by a comprehensive set of scientific objectives:
Deleted: to achieve thrs VISiOn It Will
• Characterize the Earth's past and present climate, including its natural variability routinely providereliable mformanon
• Quantify the forces acting to bring about changes in the Earth system through active commumcaucns
mecharusms With these and other
• Determine how the climate and Earth systems may change in the future at a wide range of Interested parues
spatial- and time-scales, including the potential for abrupt change
• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed systems to
multiple, interacting changes in climate and associated environmental systems
[The deleted bullet is a CCTP function, and should not absorb "science" money.] Deleted: <ii>Rescarch and develop
resources thai WIll enable society to
These objectives focus on reducing unc-ertainties and closing gaps in scientific knowledge that evaluate technologresand other
are central to a wide range of public and private sector interests. By building on the already approaches for managmg risks and
opporturuues from changes In the Earth
considerable knowledge and deepening understanding of these issues, the program will system~
substantially improve capacity to deliver timely data and information essential for decision
CEQ 012702
making.Developing this capacity requires a diverse, multi-faceted research program that focuses
on the Earth's major environmental systems, their natural dynamics, and their interactions with
society.
Mission
CCSP will add silwificant integrative value to the individual Earth climate science missions of
the Federal agencies and their national and international panners.
• facilitate coordination ofinterdiscinlinarv research. technology and infrastructure ( fQrmatted: Bullets andNumben!lg
development, and management ora diverse portfolio of projects
• facilitate expansion of knowledge for prediction ~tnd forecast of short-ternl and 10mHeml
climate variations
• identitV national budaet priorities to improve understanding of short-term and lonll-term
climate variations and their interactions with society
• provide advice on preservation of healthy ecosystems
enhancc publicawareness of climate
Goals
Implement a long-term integrated and sustai:1cd global Earth observing system for detection of
climate variations and for the testing of climate models by the end of the decade.
create data products (= observations, data management, communication. models) ( Formatted: Bullets andNumbering
Create climate model to discover limits of predictability of seasonal-to-millennium variationsof

Earth's climate.
improve model physics, biology, chemistry. ecosystems and their interactions ( Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
• increase horizontal, vertical and temporall'esolutions of long-period ensemble climate
model hindcasts and forecasts
• reduce scientific uncertainties via process-oriented experiments
provide mechanism for continuous discovery of new science
proyide mechanism for continual improvementsof climate model
Achieve national climate awareness.

• K-16 education ( Formatted: Bullets andNumbering
public outreach
• scicntifie assessments
rVlodernize Earth science infrastructure.

• provide adequate computational resources ( fQrmatted: Bullets and Numbering
• community climate models
technology development, communications, data management
• data assimilation methodologies
Strengthen national and international research and operational efforts,
MANAGEMENTofilieCCSP
The CCSP is responsible for producing researchthat will support informed decisions on climate-
related resource stewardship-fCCT? does encr~'Y policy]. The CCSP provides leadership for the [ Deleted: and energy policy
large public investment that addresses this issue on behalf of the United States. The CCSP
CEQ 012703
incorporates the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)and the Climate Change
Research Initiative (CCRI).
The USGCRP began as an interagency initiative in 1989,and was codified in the 1990 Global
Change Research Act (Public Law 101-606).The USGCRP has operated continuously since
1989, and by January 2003 had provided over $20 billion of support for global climate change
research and monitoring-the largest such investment of public resources on this topic in the
world. In June 2001 President Bush created the CCRI to increase the focus of U.S. sponsored
research on key scientificuncertainties that mightbe reduced in the near term (i.e., within,5 Deleted: 210
years], Deleted: and todevelop serenufic

syntheses that would facrhtate public
understanding of venous response
In February 2002 President Bush created a new,cabinet level management structure (see Figure Slrateglcs related to global climate change
1)to oversee the ongoingpublic investments in climate change scienceand technology, with a
combined annual budgetexceeding $3 billion. As part of the President's managementstructure,
the Climate Change Science Program providesjoint managementof the USGCRP and the CCRt.
Ongoing managementof the CCSP is the responsibility ofa 13-member interagency steering
committee that includes a senior representativeof each of the 13 agenciesparticipating in the
program. The CCSP reports to the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Scienceand
Technology that functions as a "Board of Directors" with supervisory oversightof both the
science and technology programs.The Interagency Working Group membership includes deputy
secretary and deputy administrator level representatives of the relevantcabinetdepartments and
independent agencies, and high level representatives ofOMB, CEQ and OSTP. The Interagency
Working Group meets regularly, supplementedwith ad hoc meetings as needed.
STRATEG IES of the CCSP
The CCSP employs strategies for accomplishingits mission and objectives that contribute
substantially to understanding of global climate change and support national and international
scientific and stakeholdercommunities. The strategies employed include:
I, Planning and sponsoring research on changes in climate and related systems.
Fundamental. long-term research an a broad range ofglobal change issues. Over the
past 15 years the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) element of the CCSP
has provided planning and sponsorship of the world's most extensive program of
scientific research, monitoring, data management, and assessment for climate change
analyses. The results ofthis program include the first ever global characterization of
many aspects of the Earth's environment; the development of decadal-scale global
observations ofa limited number of environmentally importantvariables; detailed
knowledge ofa variety of processes important in the functioning of the Earth system;the
development ofEI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts and derived products
used in management, planning, and emergency preparedness; and significant
improvement in the capability of models used to project the future evolution of the Earth
system, as evidenced by improvements in their ability to simulatevariability in the
present and recent past. USGCRP accomplishments are exemplified by large numbers of
peer reviewed scientific papers and other reports; unique data archives prepared with
USGCRP sponsorship; active involvementof US-based scientists in the work of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) and other assessment activities; and
increased public awareness of issues associated with climate variability and change. The
CEQ 012704
greatest percentage of future CCSP budgets (incorporatingboth USGCRP and CCRI
elements) will be devoted to continuing this essential investment in basi<;,scientific Deleted: the
kno\\<ledge,; facilitating the discovery ofthe unexpectedand advancing the frontiersof Deleted: community
research.
Enhanced short-termfocus on reducing key scientific uncertainties 10 support informed

public re\'iew oj adaptation and mitigationstrategies. When President Bush created the
Climate Change Research Initiative in June 2001, he directedthat the CCRl be focused
on short-term (i e., withln.S years) actionsto reduce high priority scientific uncertainties Deleted: 2to
about global climate change where possible,. The CCSP manages CCRl activities jointly Deleted: • and 10 synthesize lite
available screnufic mforrnatrcn (0 support
with its management of the long-termUSGCRP studies, usingthe same interagency public dISCUSSIon orglobal climate
managementand scientific working groupstructures. change response strategies
2. Enhancing observation and data management systems for a comprehensive set of

variables needed for research on changes in climate and related systems.
Since the early years of the USGCRPan expanded programof global observations has
been developed to characterize climatevariability and changeon a global and regional
basis. These observations have included paleoclimatestudies interpretingclimate
parameters over thousands of years, satellite remote sensing systems operated by NASA
and NOAA, and numerous in situ observations at the terrestrialsurface (including the
polar regions), in the atmosphere, and in the surface and deep oceans. The 'suite of
available observations includes many types of long-terrn monitoring programs, as well as
a large number of limited duration measurements obtained during research programs.
Satellite observations made under the USGCRP have provided the first-ever continuous
(up to a decade) data sets about the global distribution of important environmental
parameters and their spatial and temporal variability.
Current investments in new observations will significantly enhanceour knowledge of a

number of environmental parameters in the coming years as prior and current investments
come to fruition. But two considerationshave created a need for enhanced global and
regional integration of observation and data management systems: (I) The large quantity
and diverse format of available observations requires a major expansionof the capacity to
prioritize, quality assure, archive, and disseminate(in useful format) the elements of this
extensive record; and (2) The importance of integrated evaluationof climate and
ecosystem parameters requires the development of new requirements for integrated
observation systems, followed by system design and implementation, to address
additional research issues including ecosystem and land use/land cover forcing and
feedback relationships with other climate parameters. In implementing its observing
strategy, the CCSP will adhere to National Research Council climate monitoring
principles, as well as the GCOS climate monitoring principlesfor satellites.
3. Developing improved science-based decision support resources.
Since the earliest years of the USGCRP and its counterparts around the world, the use of
available scientific information to address key questions about changes in climate and
related systems has continuously grown in importance. The available scientific record has
already been used for many years to addressfundamental questionsof detection and
attribution of anthropogenic climate change. Currently, at least three complementary
CEQ 012705
considerationscreate significant new demands for the CCSP to improve science-based
decision supportprocessesand tools to address possible response strategies:
(1) The economic costs of many proposed response options are widely understood to be
very large.This creates a demand to reduce uncertainty in the underlying science as
much as possible, especially in understanding the sensitivity of the climate system to
future forcing and improving projections of impacts in climateand related
environmental and socio-economicsystemsthat may develop over periods of decades
or longer.
(2) The needs of science-based detection and attribution analyses have become more
demanding in order to support differential evaluations of variousproposed mitigation
and adaptation strategies. For example, is the underlyingsciencesufficiently robustto
discriminatebetweenthe potential implications of differentmitigation strategies that
may have widely different economicimpacts?
(3) Increasingly, decision making aboutregional and sectoral responses to climate
variability and change holds the greatestchallenges and opportunities for emerging
decision supportresources. Decision making woulet. benefitfrom increased ( Deleted: can
understanding of the potential impacts of changes in climate on related ecosystems
and dimensions of human societies, and from improved information on options for
adaptation.
The CCSP will respond to these needs by focusing efforts to develop resources and
stakeholder interactions, It will also developnew methods, models, and other tools that Deleted: atthenational level and In a
Wide range or regional and sectoral
facilitate economic analysis, decision makingunder uncertainty, and integration and contexts
interpretation of information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision
contexts [Theseactivities are too ambitious to accomplish in the next 10vears.],
4. Stressing openness and transparency in communication of results.
Global climate change is complex and often subject to disputed interpretations even
among well-respected scientists. The economicand policy dimensions of the issue often
give rise to even greater disputes among individualswith differentpolicy views. Virtually
everyone involved with climate change issues is aware of frequentout-of-context
disputes that can be characterized as "public debate by headlines"; selective citations
from the scientificliterature; advocacy-oriented quotations from interested persons (often
citing their own expertise); and other debatingtactics. As an essential part ofits mission,
the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility of enhancingthe quality of debate by
stressing openness and transparency in its findings and reports.
CCSP will employ at least four methodsto insure the trustworthiness of its reported
findings: (I) use of structured analyses(usually question-based) for CCSP scientific
synthesis, assessment, and projection reports;(2) use of transparent methodologies which
openly report all key assumptions, methods, uncertainties, and data used in developing
analyses; (3) continuous use of web-basedand other forms of information dissemination
so that all CCSP information is freely availableto all interested users; and (4) frequent
use of "draft for comment" methods to seek external review beforecompletion of each
key document. CCSP will also continueto urge all of its sponsored researchers to seek
publication of their findings in the peer reviewedscientific literature.
CEQ 012706
Some of these credibility-enhancing steps have already been introduced through the
public dissemination and review of the CCSP Discussion Draft Strategic Plan in
November 2002, the open public workshops with 1,300 participants in December2002,
the subsequentpublic comment period, and the invited reviewby a committee of the
National Research Council.
5. Maintaining continuous dialog with tbe domestic and international scientific and
stakeholder communities, supplemented by preparation of public education resource
materials to convey state-of-the-science Information.
The domestic and international communities addressing globalclimate change are

already well developed: in IPCC collaboration, scientific literature publications, and
many other scientificforums; in policydiscussions in Washington arid other world
capitals; and in the media throughoutthe world. The CCSP has a major responsibility to
communicate with interested partners in the United States and throughout the world, and
to learn/rom these partners on a continuing basis. Becauseof the unique, large public
resource commitment to CCSP activities, the CCSP also has a specific responsibility to
report its findings in the form of educational materials suitable for use at various
educational and public information levels, so that the dissemination of its findings will be
effective.
I, Deleted: DEFINITION orK'obol

c!iltUlle changc1l
~
For the purposesof this plan, glahol
chmate change IS defined as the
combination of chmate change and the
associatedaspectsor globalchange
Climate change includes both natural
venabrlrry andchangesthat result from
anthropogenic Influences In the
atmosphere, the hydrosphere
(precrpuauon10 all forms, the surfaceand
deep oceans, and surface and
underground water crrculaucn In
continental areas), and the cryosphere
(snow and Icecovered regions) It
Includes processes nodphenomena at
scales from regional to global, and on
time scales from seeseeel tc centennial
The "associated aspectsof global change"
Include the entire set of ecosystem and
land use/land coverchangesthat have
stgntficantforcmg and/orfeedback
relationships with climate change
parameters They alsotnclude changes En
the natural or human systems that are
affected by vanebrhryand change m
clrmereand related environmental
systems ~
CEQ 012707
Tlte creation and e.1:pansion of knowledge tOfllable informed stewardship ofptlr natrlral Deleted: £
environmellt {"climate sensitive resources" begs tlte question that is the object oUllis Deleted: climate lenslti.,e resources
program. which is to leam abOlltthe existence (Ind extent ofsue" sensith·ities. The term und
lucks definition at tlte outset - that's wIn' we have the program{ through research and
partnerships to benefit present andfuture generations
Climateplays an important role in shaping the environment, natural resources, infrastructure, the
economy, and other important aspects of our way of life, Natural climate variability, the risk of
human-induced changes in climate and relatedenvironmental systems,and potential adaptation
and mitigation options may have substantial environmental, economic,and societal
consequences. The full spectrum ofpublic and private sector decision makers will,seck reliable ( Deleted: need
and readily understood information to comparethe potential implications of different strategies
and actions and make scientifically informed decisions. The U.S. ClimateChange Science
Program (CCSP) envisions a world where scientific advances support stewardship of,pur nalural ( Deleted: c1lmalc $cnsllive resouren=J
environment to benefit presentand future generations. This will require more than an improved
scientifie understandingof the Earth's environment and how it is changing, but also development
of new capabilities forassessmentand interpretation of scientific information. The CCSP will
work in close partnershipwith the international science community, policyrnakers, and public
and private sector managers to achieve this vision, It will routinely providereliable information
through active communications mechanisms with these and other interested parties.
The CCSP will facilitate observation, understanding, and {"predictioll" is subsumed in ( Deleted: ,,, "diction,
"assessment" ami I do not want to risk overpromising on predictive capllcitv per u-
cillsiderillg we can't predict weather tell days outlassessment oftrends ill the Earth's global
environment, focusing on natural and human-induced climate variation and change, and the
resulting implications for environmental and human systems.

• Characterize the Earth's past and present climate, including its naturalvariability
• Quantify the forces acting to bring about changes in the Earth system
• Determine how the climate and Earth systems may change in the future at a wide rangeof
• [I recommend deleting the last bullet as it overreaches inlo the mission of the CCTP, in
my view - see also. for example my recommendeddeletion to reference ro the CCSP
producing research for policvmaking on "energy policy" at the top of the next page- I Deleted: <Ii>Research and develop
see that as the roleof the CCTP through David Conover, not CCSP). resources that \VlII enablesociety to
evaluate technologies and other
approachesfor managing risks and
cpporturunes from changes In the Earth
sySlem~
CEQ 012708
Theseobjectives focus on reducing uncertainties and closing gaps in scientific knowledgethat
arecentral to a wide rangeof public and private sector interests. By building on the already
considerable knowledgeand deepening understanding of these issues, the program will
substantially improve capacityto deliver timely data and information essential for decision
making. Developing this capacity requires a diverse, multi-faceted research program that focuses
society.
MANAGEMENT of the CCSP
The CCSP is responsiblefor producing research that will support informed decisions on. Deleted: chrnate-related resource
stewardship of our natural environment..The CCSP provides leadership for the large public Deleted: and energypohcy
investment that addressesthis issue on behalfof the United States. The CCSP incorporates the
U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Climate ChangeResearch Initiative
(CCRI).
The USGCRP began as an interagency initiatlve in 1989, and was codified in the 1990 Global
Change Research Act (Public Law 101-606). The USGCRP has operatedcontinuously since
world. In June 200I PresidentBush created the CCRI to increase the focus of U.S. sponsored
research on key scientific uncertainties that might be reduced in the near term (i. e., within 2 to 5
years), [I believe that the role ot the CCTP is to evaluate potential response strategies based Deleted: and 10 develop seicnuflc
syntheses thatwould factluate public
upon their assessment of elllergint!. energy and sequestration technologies, calibrating such understanding of various response
strateg,\' development to the CCSP scientific research products - but il is not in the CCSP strategies relatedto global chmate
change
mission per sc because it is inlhe CCTP mission].
In February 2002 President Bush created a new,cabinet level management structure (see Figure
I) to oversee the ongoing public investmentsin climate change scienceand technology, witha
combined annual budget exceeding $3 billion. As part of the President's managementstructure,
the Climate Change Science Program providesjoint management of the USGCRP and the CCRI.
Ongoingmanagement of the CCSP is the responsibility of a 13-member interagency steering
committee that includesa senior representativeof each of the 13 agenciesparticipating in the
program. The CCSP reports to the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Scienceand
Technologythat functions as a "Board of Directors"with supervisory oversightof both the
scienceand technology programs.The Interagency Working Group membership includes deputy
secretary and deputy administrator level representatives of the relevantcabinetdepartments and
independent agencies, and high level representatives ofOMB, CEQ and OSTP.The Interagency
Working Group meets regularly, supplemented with ad hoc meetings as needed.
STRATEGIES of the CCSP
The CCSP employs strategies for accomplishing its mission and objectives that contribute
scientificand stakeholdercommunities. The strategies employed include:
1. Planning and sponsoring research on changes in climate and related systems.
.CEQ012709
Fundamental, long-term research on a broad range ofglobal change issues. Over the
past 15 years the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) elementof the CCSP
has provided planning and sponsorshipof the world's most extensive program of
analyses. The resultsof this program include the first ever globalcharacterization of
observations ofa limitednumber of environmentally importantvariables; detailed
knowledge ofa variety of processes important in the functioning of the Earth system; the
development ofEI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts and derived products
improvement in the capability of models used to project the future evolutionof the Earth
system, as evidenced by improvements in their ability to simulatevariability in the
present and recentpast. USGCRP accomplishments are exemplified by large numbers of
peer reviewed scientificpapers and otherreports; unique data archives prepared with
USGCRP sponsorship; active involvement of US-based scientists in the work of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCe) and other assessment activities;and
greatest percentageof future CCSP budgets (incorporating both USGCRP and CCRI
elements) will be devoted to continuingthis essential investmentin.basic scientific Deleted: the
knowlecee: facilitating the discovery of the unexpected and advancing the frontiers of Deleted: communny
research.
Enhanced short-term focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties to support informed

public review ofadaptation and mitigation strategies. When President Bush created the
Climate Change Research Initiative in June 2001, he directed that the CCRI be focused
on short-term (i.e.. within 2 to 5 years) actions to reduce high priority scientific
uncertainties about global climate changewhere possible..The CCSP manages CCRI Deleted: . and 10 synthesize the
availablescrenufic rnfcrmancn to support
activities jointly with its managementof the long-term USGCRP studies, using the same public diSCUSSIon of global climate
interagency management and scientific working group structures. changeresponse strategies

Since the early years of the USGCRP an expanded program of global observations has
been developed to characterize climate variability and change on a global and regional
basis. These observations have included paleoclimatestudies interpreting climate
parameters over thousandsof years, satellite remote sensing systems operated by NASA
and NOAA, and numerous in situ observations at the terrestrialsurface (including the
polar regions), in the atmosphere, and in the surface and deep oceans.The suite of
available observations includes many types of long-term monitoring programs, as well as
Satellite observationsmade under the USGCRP have providedthe first-ever continuous
(up to a decade) data sets about the global distribution of importantenvironmental
Current investments in new observations will significantly enhanceour knowledge of a

come to fruition. But two considerations have created a need for enhanced global and
regional integration ofobservation and data management systems: (I) The large quantity
CEQ 012710
and diverse format of available observations requires a major expansion of the capacity to
prioritize, quality assure, archive, and disseminate (in useful format) the elements of this
extensive record; and (2) The importance of integrated evaluation of climate and
observation systems,followed by system design and implementation, to address
feedback relationships with other climate parameters, In implementing its observing
principles, as well as the GCOS climate monitoring principles for satellites.
Since the earliestyears of the USGCRP and its counterparts aroundthe world, the use of
available scientificinformation to address key questions about changesin climate and
related systems has continuously grown in importance. The availablescientific record has
already been used for many years to address fundamental questions of detection and
attribution of anthropogenic climate change.Currently, at leastthree complementary
considerations create significant new demands for the CCSP to improve science-based
decision support processes and tools to address possible response strategies:
(1) The economic costs of many proposed response options are widely understood to be
very large. This creates a demand to reduce uncertainty in the underlying science as
much as possible, especially in understanding the sensitivityof the climate systemto
future forcing and improving projections of impacts in climate and related
environmental and socio-economicsystems that may developover periods of decades
or longer.
. demanding in order to support differential evaluations of various proposed mitigation
and adaptationstrategies. For example, is the underlyingscience sufficiently robust to
discriminate between the potential implicationsof different mitigation strategies that
may have widely different economic impacts?
(3) Increasingly, decision making about regional and sectoral responses to climate
variability and change holds the greatestchallenges and opportunities for emerging
decision support resources. Decisionmaking,would benefit from increased ( Deleted: can
and dimensionsof human societies, and from improved information on options for
adaptation.
The CCSP will respond to these needs by focusing efforts to developresources and
stakeholder interactions... 1t will also develop new methodanndjools, firmly grounded in Deleted: 01the nencnaltevel and In •
Widerange of regtcnal and sectoral
scientific methodand accurately conveyingall relevant uncertainties and their extcnt,JQ contexts
facilitate economicanalysis, decision making under uncertainty, and integration and Deleted: ,
interpretation of information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision Deleted: modele.
contexts.
Deleted: other
Deleted: tha
among well-respectedscientists. The economic and policy dimensions of the issue often
give rise to even greater disputes among individuals with different policy views. Virtually
CEQ012711
everyone involved with climate change issues is aware of frequent out-of-context
disputes that can be characterized as "publicdebate by headlines": selective citations
from the scientificliterature; advocacy-oriented quotations from interested persons (often
citing their own expertise); and other debatingtactics. As an essential part of its mission,
the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility of enhancingthe quality of debate by
stressing openness and transparency in its findings and reports.
CCSP will employ at least four methods to insure the trustworthiness of its reported
findings: (1) use of structured analyses (usually question-based) for CCSP scientific
synthesis, assessment, and projection reports; (2) use of transparent methodologies which
openly report all key assumptions, methods, uncertainties and data used in developing
analyses; (3) continuous use of web-based and other forms of information dissemination
so that all CCSP information is freely availableto all interestedusers;and (4) frequent
use of "draft for comment" methods toseek external review beforecompletion of each
key document. CCSP will also continue to urge all of its sponsored researchers to seek
publication of their findings in the peer reviewed scientific literature.
public dissemination and review of the CCSP Discussion Draft Strategic Plan in
November 2002, the open public workshops with 1,300 participants in December 2002,
the subsequent publiccomment period,and the invited review by a committee ofthe
5. Maintaining continuous dialog with the domestic and international scientific and,othcr ( Deleted: stakeholder
communities. supplemented by preparation of public education resource materials to
convey state-of-the-science information.
The domestic and international communities addressing global climate change are
already well developed: in IPCC collaboration, scientific literaturepublications, and
many other scientific forums; in policydiscussions in Washington and other world
capitals; and in the media throughout the world. The CCSP has a major responsibility to
communicate with interested partners in the United States and throughout the world.and
to learn from these partners on a continuing basis. Because of the unique, large public
resource commitment to CCSP activities, the CCSP also has a specific responsibility to
effective.
DEFINITION of global climate change
For the purposes of this plan. global climate change is defined as the combinationof climate
change and the associatedaspects of global change. Climate change includes both natural
variabilityand changes that result from anthropogenic influences in the atmosphere, the
hydrosphere(precipitation in all forms. the surface and deep oceans, and surface and
underground water circulation in continental areas), and the cryosphere (snow and ice covered
regions). It includes processes and phenomenaat scales from regional to global, and on time
scales from seasonal to centennial. The "associated aspects of global change" include the entire
set of ecosystem and landuse/land cover changesthat have significant forcing and/or feedback
CEQ 012712
relationships with climatechange parameters. They also include changes in the natural or human
systems that are affected by variability and change in climate and relatedenvironmental systems.
CEQ 012713
Enable informed stewardship ofclimate sensitive resources through research and

partnerships to benefit present and future generations
Climate plays an important role in shaping the environment, natural resources, infrastructure, the
economy, and other important aspects of our way of life. Natural climate variability, the risk of
human-induced changes in climate and related environmental systems, and potential adaptation
and mitigation options may have substantial environmental, economic, and societal
consequences. The full spectrum of public and private sector decision makers will need reliable
and readily understood information to compare the potential implications of different strategies
and actions and make scientifically informed decisions. The U.S. Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP) envisions a world where scientific advances support stewardship of climate
sensitive resources to benefit present and future generations. This will require more than an
improved scientific understanding of the Earth's environment and how it is changing, but also
development of new capabilities for assessment and interpretation of scientific information. The
CCSP will work in close partnership with the international science community, policymakers,
and public and private sector managers to achieve this vision. It will routinely provide reliable
information through active communications mechanisms with these and other interested parties.
The CCSP willfacilitate observation, understanding, prediction, and assessment of trends in

the Earth's global environment.focusing on natural and human-induced climate variation
and change, and the resulting implications for environmental and human systems.

• Characterize the Earth's past and present climate, including its natural variability
• Quantify the forces acting to bring about changes in the Earth system
• Determine how the climate and Earth systems may change in the future at a wide range of
• Research and develop resources that will enable society to evaluate technologies and
other approaches for managing risks and opportunities from changes in the Earth system
These objectives focus on reducing uncertainties and closing gaps in scientific knowledge that
are central to a wide range of public and private sector interests. By building on the already
considerable knowledge and deepening understanding of these issues, the program will
substantially improve capacity to deliver timely data and information essential for decision
making. Developing this capacity requires a diverse, multi-faceted research program that focuses
society.
CEQ 012714
MANAGEMENT of the CCSP
The CCSP is responsible for producing research that will support infanned decisions on climate-
related resource stewardship and energy policy. The CCSP provides leadership for the large
public investment that addresses this issue on behalf of the United States. The CCSP
incorporates the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Climate Change
The USGCRP began as an interagency initiative in 1989, and was codified in the 1990 Global
Change Research Act (Public Law 101-606). The USGCRP has operated continuously since
world. In June 200 I President Bush created the CCRI to increase the focus of U.S. sponsored
research on key scientific uncertainties that might be reduced in the near term (i.e., within 2 to 5
years) and to develop scientific syntheses that would facilitate public understanding of various
response strategies related to global climate change.
In February 2002 President Bush created a new, cabinet level management structure (see Figure
1) to oversee the ongoing public investments in climate change science and technology, with a
combined annual budget exceeding $3 billion. As part of the President's management structure,
the Climate Change Science Program provides joint management of the USGCRP and the CCRI.
Ongoing management of the CCSP is the responsibility ofa 13-member interagency steering
committee that includes a senior representative of each of the 13 agencies participating in the
program. The CCSP reports to the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and
Technology that functions as a "Board of Directors" with supervisory oversight of both the
science and technology programs. The Interagency Working Group membership includes deputy
secretary and deputy administrator level representatives of the relevant cabinet departments and
independent agencies, and high level representatives ofOMB, CEQ and OSTP. The Interagency
Working Group meets regularly, supplemented with ad hoc meetings as needed.
STRATEGIES of the CCSP
The CCSP employs strategies for accomplishing its mission and objectives that contribute
scientific and stakeholder communities. The strategies employed include:
1. Planning and sponsoring research on changes in climate and related systems.
Fundamental, long-term research on a broad range ofglobal change issues. Over the
past IS years the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) element of the CCSP
has provided planning and sponsorship of the world's most extensive program of
analyses. The results of this program include the first ever global characterization of
observations of a limited number of environmentally important variables; detailed
knowledge ofa variety of processes important in the functioning of the Earth system; the
development of EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (EN SO) forecasts and derived products
CEQ 012715
improvement in the capability of models used to project the future evolution of the Earth
system, as evidenced by improvements in their ability to simulate 'variability in the
present and recent past. USGCRP accomplishments are exemplified by large numbers of
peer reviewed scientific papers and other reports; unique data archives prepared with
.USGCRP sponsorship; active involvement of US-based scientists in the work of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other assessment activities; and
greatest percentage of future CCSP budgets (incorporating both USGCRP and CCRI
elements) will be devoted to continuing this essential investment in the scientific
community: facilitating the discovery of the unexpected and advancing the frontiers of
research.
Enhanced short-term focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties to support informed

public review ofadaptation and mitigation strategies. When President Bush created the
Climate Change Research Initiative in June 2001, he directed that the CCRI be focused
on short-term (i.e., within 2 to 5 years) actions to reduce high priority scientific
uncertainties about global climate change where possible, and to synthesize the available
scientific information to support public discussion of global climate change response
strategies. The CCSP manages CCRI activities jointly with its management of the long-
term USGCRP studies, using the same interagency management and scientific working
group structures.

Since the early years of the USGCRP an expanded program of global observations has
been developed to characterize climate variability and change on a global and regional
basis. These observations have included paleoclimate studies interpreting climate
parameters over thousands of years, satellite remote sensing systems operated by NASA
and NOAA, and numerous in situ observations at the terrestrial surface (including the
polar regions), in the atmosphere, and in the surface and deep oceans. The suite of
available observations includes many types of long-term monitoring programs, as well as
Satellite observations made under the USGCRP have provided the first-ever continuous
(up to a decade) data sets about the global distribution of important environmental
Current investments in new observations will significantly enhance our knowledge of a

come to fruition. But two considerations have created a need for enhanced global and
regional integration of observation and data management systems: (I) The large quantity
and diverse format of available observations requires a major expansion of the capacity to
prioritize, quality assure, archive, and disseminate (in useful format) the elements of this
extensive record; and (2) The importance of integrated evaluation of climate and
observation systems, followed by system design and implementation, to address
feedback relationships with other climate parameters. In implementing its observing
CEQ 012716
principles, as well as the GCOS climate monitoring principles for satellites.
Since the earliest years of the USGCRP and its counterparts around the world, the use of
available scientific information to address key questions about changes in climate and
related systems has continuously grown in importance. The available scientific record has
already been used for many years to address fundamental questions of detection and
attribution of anthropogenic climate change. Currently, at [east three complementary ,
considerations create significant new demands for the CCSP to improve science-based
decision support processes and tools to .address possible response strategies:
(I) The economic costs of many proposed response options are widely understood to be
very large. This creates a demand to reduce uncertainty in the underlying science as
much as possible, especially in understanding the sensitivity of the climate system to
future forcing and improving projections of impacts in climate and related
environmental and socio-economic systems that may develop over periods of decades
or longer.
demanding in order to support differential evaluations of various proposed mitigation
and adaptation strategies. For example, is the underlying science sufficiently robust to
discriminate between the potential impl ications of different mitigation strategies that
may have widely different economic impacts?
(3) Increasingly, decision making about regional and sectoral responses to climate
variability and change holds the greatest challenges and opportunities for emerging
decision support resources. Decision making can benefit from increased
and dimensions of human societies, and from improved information on options for
adaptation.
The CCSP will respond to these needs by focusing efforts to develop resources and
stakeholder interactions at the national level and in a wide range of regional and sectoral
contexts. It will also develop new methods, models, and other tools that facilitate
economic analysis, decision making under uncertainty, and integration and interpretation
of information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision contexts.
among well-respected scientists. The economic and policy dimensions of the issue often
give rise to even greater disputes among individuals with different policy views. Vir.: :;!!~'
everyone involved with climate change issues is aware of frequent out-of-context
disputes that can be characterized as "public debate by headlines"; selective citations
from the scientific literature; advocacy-oriented quotations from interested persons (often
citing their own expertise); and other debating tactics. As an essential part of its mission,
the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility of enhancing the quality of debate by
stressing openness and transparency inits findings and reports.
CEQ 012717
eesp will employ at least four methods to insure the trustworthiness of its reported
findings: (I) use of structured analyses (usually question-based) for CCSP scientific
synthesis, assessment, and projection reports; (2) use of transparent methodologies which
openly report all key assumptions, methods, and data used in developing analyses; (3)
continuous use of web-based and other forms of information dissemination so that all
eesp information is freely available to all interested users; and (4) frequent use of "draft
for comment" methods to seek external review beforecompletion of each key document.
eesp will also continue to urge all of its sponsored researchers to seek publication of
their findings in the peer reviewed scientific literature.
public dissemination and review of the eesp Discussion Draft Strategic Plan in
November 2002, the open public workshops with 1,300 participants in December 2002,
the subsequent public comment period, and the invited review by a committee of the
5. Maintaining continuous dialog with the domestic and international scientific and
stakeholder communities, supplemented by preparation of public education resource
materials to convey state-of-the-science information.
The domestic and international communities addressing global climate change are
already well developed: in IPCe collaboration, scientific literature publications, and
many other scientific forums; in policy discussions in Washington and other world
capitals; and in the media throughoutthe world. The cesp has a major responsibility to
communicate with interested partners in the United States and throughout the world, and
to learn from these partners on a continuing basis. Because of the unique, large public
resource commitment to CCSPactivities, the ecsp also has a specific responsibility to
effective.
DEFINITION of global climate change
For the purposes of this plan, global climate change is defined as the combination of climate
change and the associated aspects of global change. Climate change includes both natural
variability and changes that result from anthropogenic influences in the atmosphere, the
hydrosphere (precipitation in all forms, the surface and deep oceans, and surface and
underground water circulation in continental areas), and the cryosphere (snow and ice covered
regions). It includes processes and phenomena at scales from regional to global, and on time
scales from seasonal to centennial. The "associated aspects of global change" include the entire
set of ecosystem and land use/land cover changes that have significant forcing and/or feedback
relationships with climate change parameters. They also include changes in the natural or human
systems that are affected by variability and change in climate and related environmental systems.
CEQ 012718
DRAFT for Working Group Co-Chair and Lead Author Review
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OR CIRCULATION
CCSP program-wide products: a "top-down" perspective

for the next 2-5 years
Introduction
The CCSP will produce many different products over the coming decade. The most
numerous products will be the peer-reviewed journal articles published by researchers
working under CCSP sponsorship. The thirteen CCSP agencies will also produce
numerous reports, data sets, and models on specific topics as appropriate within their
responsibilities. In addition, the interagency science working groups have identified
science and decision support products that will result from interagency collaboration.
Over 100 such products are described in various chapters of the eesp plan. Finally,
approximately 20 science syntheses, decision support products, and assessments have
been identified as program wide products. These deliverables will address topics
important to public debate, national decision-making, or resource management. These
deliverables wi II be key measures of CCSP' s achievement of its mission and goals.
ccsp program-wide scientific syntheses and decision support products

This section [of the plan] provides a list of the program-wide CCSP science syntheses
and decision support products. It briefly describes these products, as well as the timetable
and general approaches for their production. The plan does not describe these topics in
detail because it is essential that users and interested stakeholders participate in a
transparent process for framing the specific questions to be addressed. The first step in
the process of developing these products will be to engage the stakeholder-oriented
decision support frameworks described in the decision support chapter to develop
specific questions and approaches.
This list of state of science and scientific synthesis products will be coordinated with the
IPee, so that these deliverables from the eesp can feed into the process of producing
the IPCe Fourth Assessment Report, due out in 2007.
Processes for developing CCSP products
cesp program-wide products will be developed following one of three processes. In all
cases eesp will provide oversight and direction, and cesp standards of transparency
will be met. Each of the preparation processes will include initial public and stakeholder
consultations, an external advisory apparatus, and extensive technical and public review.
Selection of which analysis methodes) to use in preparing a report will be made by the
eesp, based on the recommendations of the Interagency Oversight Group for Decision
Support and the relevant topically-focused Interagency Working Group. ecsp will be
involved in preparation of the each deliverable, either directly, or by providing continuing
oversight and arranging final review and revision processes
25 APRIL 2003 DRAFT
eEQ 012719
Process 1: direct preparation byfederal agency technical staff Under CCSP direction,
agency research scientists and analysts will work either in virtual teams from their home
agencies or labs, or as ad hoc seconded teams at the CCSP office in Washington.
Agencies will provide the scientific/analytic personnel required to complete these
deliverables. Depending on the ability of agencies to identify personnel and commit
resources to the project, that this would typically be the fastest model for preparation of
CCSP deliverables, taking a minimum of 12 months from initial conception to final
delivery (and including the consultations and reviews described above).
Process 2: use ofexternal groups. Consultant groups, laboratories, research groups, etc.
will compete to develop specific products as determined by cesp. CCSP will issue a call
for proposals and collectively review and accept a winning bid. The responsibilities of the
contracting organization will vary by project but can extend from data collection and
analysis, to modeling, to handling the public consultation and review processes. This
process will typically lead to a finished product in a minimum of 18 months.
Process 3: CCSP fellow produced products. Under CCSP direction researchers drawn
from universities and other non-Federal research institutions will lead preparation of the
deliverable as CCSP fellows. CCSP will issue a prospectus and fellowship
announcement, and select fellows through a competition. Fellows will be based in the
CCSP Office in Washington. This model will typically require a minimum of24 months
from initial conception to final delivery.
25 APRIL 2003 2 DRAFT
CEQ 012720
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OR CIRCULA nON
CCSP program-wide products

Characterize the Earth's past and present climate, including its natural variability
2004 Report comparing surface/troposphere temperature trends and outlining
steps for understanding/reconciling differences
2005 New online paleo-climate databases and evaluation report on Arctic and
high latitude variability and change
2005/2006 Requirements analysis for a global integrated climatological, ecological, and
land use monitoring system, followed by design specifications for the
monitoring system (completed with significant international collaboration)
2007 Reanalysis of the past 50 years of key atmospheric parameters and report on
the implications for attribution of causes of observed change
Quantify the forces acttnz to brlna about changes in the Earth's climate
2005 New GHG emissions and concentration scenarios using updated information
on driving forces and inputs from CCTP, and related report on the state of
the art in integrated scenario development and application
2005 State of North American carbon cycle report, with synthesis and extension
to global carbon cycle where possible
2006 Update on state of scientific understanding of aerosol forcing (for all types
of aerosols) and implications for climate effects
2006 Report on ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and
implications for UV exposure and climate forcing
Determine how the climate and Earth systems may change in the future across a
wide range of time and spatial scales, including the potential for abrupt change
2005 Climate scenarios for research and assessment based on 2004 emissions
scenarios
2006 State-of-the-art report on climate models and their uses and limitations,
including information on model sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty
2007 Climate extremes: state of the science including documentation of current
extremes and prospects for improvement of projections
2007 Report updating estimates ofthe climate response to different emissions
(e.g., C02, aerosols, black soot) and land use scenarios
2007 Probabilistic estimates of the risks of abrupt global and regional climate-
induced impacts
Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed

systems to multiple, interacting changes in climate and associated systems
2005 State of the science of socio-economic and environmental impacts of climate
variability
2005 "If..., then ..." scenario based analysis of the environmental, economic, and
societal consequences of different energy technology alternatives
2006 State of science on relationship between observed ecosystem changes and
climate change
2006 Review of adaptation options for demonstrated climate-sensitive ecosystems
and resources
CEQ 012721
Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed

systems to multiple, interacting changes in climate and associated systems (cont'd)
2006 State of the science of inverse approaches to assessing potential impacts of
climate change, including evaluation of current knowledge of thresholds of
change that could lead to discontinuities in ecosystems and climate-sensitive
resources
2007 "If... , then ...",scenario based analysis of the climatological, environmental,
resource, and economic implications of different atmospheric concentrations
ofGHGs
Research, design, and develop resources that will enable society to manage the risks
and opportunities of variability and change in climate- and related environmental
systems
2004 Report on uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other
projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions
2005 Report on best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and
incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making
2005 Elevation maps depicting areas vulnerable to sea level rise and planning
maps depicting how state and local governments plan to respond to sea level
rise
2005 Regional/sectoral decision support experiments: analysis and reports on
decision support experiments selected from the following areas:
stream/watershed management; agriculture/ranching; forest/wildfire
management; climate-modulated infectious and vector-borne health risks
2006 Evaluation of the potential for carbon sequestration in different ecosystems
and agricultural systems, including initial greenhouse gas accounting
analyses and guidelines for agriculture and forestry
[Note: this list requires further development. A key issue will be obtaining input from the
agencies and the interagency working groups. The top-down list of integrative products
needs to be feasible from their perspectives. The products identified here will need to be
able to be developed by integrating different deliverables from throughout the research
elements and agencies. The feasibility matrices collected from the working groups can
also be a useful input.]
CEQ 012722
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE
"Today, I make our investment in science even greater. My administration will

establish the U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative to study areas of uncertainty and
identify priority areas where investments can make a difference.
"I'm directing my Secretary of Commerce, working with other agencies, to set

priorities for additional investments in climate change research, review such investments,
and to improve coordination amongst federal agencies. We will fully fund high-priority
areas for climate change science over the next five years. We'll also provide resources to
build climate observation systems in developing countries and encourage other developed
nations to match our American commitment."
President Bush, June 11,2001
The Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) represents a focusing of resources and
attention on those elements ofthe USGCRP that can best support improved public debate
and decision-making in the near term. In particular, a goal of the CCRI is to improve the
integration of scientific knowledge, including measures of uncertainty, into effective
decision-support systems.
The CCRI will adopt performance metrics and deliverable products useful to
policymakers in a short time frame (2-5 years). To meet this goal, the CCRI aims to
reduce uncertainty with respect to key areas in climate science, enhance observation and
monitoring systems to support scientific and trend analyses, and improve climate
modeling capabilities and related decision-support resources.
Specific CCRI programs and initiatives include:
1. Develop reliable representations of the global and regional climatic forcing

resulting from atmospheric aerosols. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone play unique, but
poorly quantified, roles in the atmospheric radiation budget. CCRI investments will be
used to implement plans developed by the interagency National Aerosol-Climate
Interactions Program to define and evaluate the role of aerosols that absorb solar
radiation such as black carbon and mineral dust. Proposed activities include field r
campaigns (including aircraft missions), in-situ monitoring stations, improved modeling
and satellite data algorithm development.
2. Improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle (sources and sinks).
Research objectives for carbon cycle science include modeling, inventory, observations,
process research, and assessment, integrated according to topic areas that represent some
of the field's greatest areas of uncertainty. CCRI funds will be targeted for the Integrated
North American Carbon Program (NACP), a priority ofthe U.S. Carbon Cycle Science
Plan. This program will have an intensive focus on North American land and adjacent
ocean basin carbon sources and sinks to improve monitoring techniques, reconcile
Climate Science Plan

Vision Document
CEQ 013309
approaches for quantifying carbon storage, and elucidate key controlling processes and
land management practices regulating carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the land
and ocean: The NACP calls for expansion of the AmeriFlux site network, the
development of automated carbon dioxide and methane sensors, improvements in
ground-based measurements and inventories of forest and agricultural lands, and
empirical and process modeling.
3. Enhance and expand observations of the Earth system. CCRl will support work to
reestablish the benchmark upper-air network, emphasizing data-sparse areas, and place
new Global Atmosphere Watch stations in priority sites to measure pollutant emissions,
aerosols and ozone in specific regions. CCRl will also support work toward the
establishment of an ocean observing system that can accurately monitor changes in ocean
heat content, carbon uptake, and sea level. Through CCRl, NASA and NOAA will
develop high-fidelity climate data records from satellite observing systems. These efforts
will benefit from, and contribute to, the design and operational implementation over the
next ten years of a new international Earth Observation program, in cooperation with our
international partners.
4. Increase our intellectual and computational climate modeling capacity. The

continued development and refinement of computational models that can simulate the
past and potential future conditions of the Earth system is crucial for developing
capabilities to provide accurate projections of future global change. Climate modeling
centers will be established to focus on model product generation for research, assessment,
and policy applications as principal activities. This core research capability will be
enhanced to enable product generation and policy-related research by providing routine
and on-demand model products for assessment and policy decision support.
5. Develop improved tools for decision-making under uncertainty. It is uncertain how

potential climate change could affect natural resources and the economy at local and
regional geographic scales. Given these uncertainties, it is necessary to develop tools and
approaches to manage risks associated with climate change at the regionalleveI. CCRI
will direct additional resources to integrated science and assessment programs to support
research on decision and risk management. This innovative interagency approach will
link NOAA's place-based research and applications activities with NSF's methodological
research in how to manage risks associated with decision-making under uncertainty.
CEQ 013310
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
"Our nation will continue to lead the world in basic climate and science research
to address gaps in our knowledge that are important to decision makers."
"When we make decisions, we want to make sure we do so -- on sound science;

not what sounds good, but what is real. And the United States leads the world in
providing that kind 0 f research."
President Bush, February 14,2001
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is an organized set of linked
research program elements, which together support basic scientific research across a wide
range of interconnected issues of climate and global change. The USGCRP was
established by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to address natural and human-
induced changes in the Earth's global environmental system; to monitor, understand, and
predict global change; and to provide a sound scientific basis for national and
international decision making. To date, more than $20 billion of research funding has
supported the USGCRP.
Each USGCRP research elements focuses on topics crucial to documenting and

monitoring change, improving projections of change, or developing useful products to
support decision-making. They all pertain to major components of the Earth's
environmental systems, which are undergoing changes caused by a variety of natural and
human-induced causes. Changes in one component (e.g. the atmosphere) affect the other
components (e.g. oceans, biota, etc.) such that it is not possible to understand the future
evolution of the climate system without understanding the important characteristics of
each of its individual components.
USGCRP research program elements include:
Atmospheric Composition - USGCRP-supported research focuses on how the ,

composition of the global atmosphere is altered by human activities and natural
phenomena, and how such changes in atmospheric composition influence climate, ozone,
ultraviolet radiation, pollutant exposure, ecosystems, and human health. Research
activities address: processes affecting the recovery o-' .' stratospheric ozone layer; the
,'j
properties and distribution of greenhouse gases and aerosols; long-range transport of

pollutants and implications for air quality; and integrated assessments of the effects of
these changes. Atmospheric composition issues involving interactions with climate
variability and change -such as interactions between the climate system and the
stratospheric ozone layer, or the effects of global climate change on regional air quality
- are of particular interest at present.
CEQ 013311
Climate Variability and Change - USGCRP-supported research on climate variability
and change is being focused on how climate elements that are particularly important to
human and natural systems - especially temperature, precipitation, clouds, winds, and
storminess - are affected by changes in the Earth system that result from natural
processes as well as from human activities. Activities in the program are specifically
oriented toward: predictions of seasonal to decadal climate variations (for example, the EI
Nino/Southern Oscillation); improved detection, attribution, and projections oflonger
term changes in climate; the potential for changes in extreme events at regional to local
scales; the possibility of abrupt climate change; and ways to improve the communication
of this information to inform national dialogue and support public and private sector
decision-making.
Global Carbon Cycle - USGCRP-supported research on the global carbon cycle

focuses on: (1) identifying the size and variability of the dynamic reservoirs and fluxes of
carbon within the Earth system and how carbon cycling might change and be changed in
the future; and (2) providing the scientific underpinning for evaluating options being
considered by society to manage carbon sources and sinks to achieve an appropriate
balance of risk, costs, and benefits. Specific programs and projects focus on: North
American and ocean carbon sources and sinks; the impact of land-use change and
resource management practices on carbon sources and sinks; projecting future
atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations and changes in land-based and
marine carbon sinks; and the global distribution of carbon sources and sink and how they
are changing. .
Global Water Cycle - USGCRP-supported research on the global water cycle focuses
on: (1) the effects of large-scale changes in land use and climate on the capacity of
societies to provide adequate supplies of clean water; and (2) how natural processes and
human activities influence the distribution and quality of water within the Earth system
and to what extent the resultant changes are predictable. Specific areas include:
identifying trends in the intensity of the water cycle and determining the causes of these
changes (including feedback effects of clouds on the global water and energy budgets as
well as the global climate system); predicting precipitation and evaporation on timescales
ofmonths to years and longer; and modeling physical/biological processes and human
use of water, to facilitate efficient water resources management.
Ecosystems - USGCRP-supported research on ecosystems focuses on: (1) how natural

and human-induced changes in the environment interact to affect the structure,
functioning, and services of ecosystems at a range of spatial and temporal scales,
including those ecosystem processes that in turn influence regional and global
environmental changes; and (2) what options society has to ensure that desirable
ecosystem goods and services will be sustained, or enhanced, in the context ofprojected
regional and global environmental changes. Among the specific focus areas are: the
structure and functioning of ecosystems, including cycling of nutrients, and how these
nutrients interact with the carbon cycle; and key processes that link ecosystems with
climate.
CEQ 013312
Land UsefLand Cover Change - USGCRP-supported research on changes in land use
and land cover focuses on: (1) the processes that determine the temporal and spatial
distribution ofland cover and land use change at local, regional, and global scales, and
how land use and land cover can be projected over timescales of 10-50 years; and (2)
how the dynamics of land use, land management, and land-cover change will affect
global environmental changes and regional-scale environmental and socioeconomic
conditions, including economic welfare and human health, and how global environmental
changes will affect land use and land cover. Research will identify and quantify the
human drivers of land-use/land-cover change; improve monitoring, measuring, and .
mapping of land use and land cover and the management of data systems; and develop
proj ections of land-cover and land-use change under various scenarios of climate,
demographic, economic, and technological trends.
Human Contributions and Responses - USGCRP-supported research on human

contributions and responses to global change is relevant to each of the other research
program elements. The current focus of this research is on improving understanding of
the potential effects of global change on human health; human forcing of the climate
system, of land use, and other global environmental change; science-based regional and
sectoral assessments that accurately reflect the limits of current understanding; decision
support under conditions 0 f complexity and uncertainty; and integrated assessment
methods.
CEQ 013313
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CEQ 013314
V.3
A NEW STRATEGIC PLAN FOR CLIMATE SCIENCE
Questions for the 21st Century
"Our nation will continue to lead the world in basic climate and science research
to address gaps in our knowledge that are important to decision makers."
President Bush, February 14,2001
In May 2001, the Bush Administration asked the National Academy of Sciences -
National Research Council (NRC) to provide an updated evaluation of available scientific
knowledge with respect to climate change. In particular, the Administration sought the
Academy's assistance in identifying the areas in the science of climate change where
there were the greatest certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge and understanding.
The NRC committee report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis a/Some Key
Questions, was issued the following moeth of June 2001. Among its findings, the report
concluded:
"Reducing the wide range of uncertainty inherent in current model predictions of global
climate change will require major advances in understanding and modeling of both (1)
the factors that determine atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols,
and (2) the so-called "feedbacks" that determine the sensitivity of the climate system to a
prescribed increase in greenhouse gases. There also is a pressing need for a global
observing system designed for monitoring climate. (p.l)"
The report also outlined several areas of emphasis that need to be addressed in order to
advance our understanding of climate variability and change:
"Making progress in reducing the large uncertainties in projections of future climate will
require addressing a number of fundamental scientific questions relating to the buildup of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the behavior of the climate system. ( ... )
Maintaining a vigorous, ongoing program of basic research, funded and managed
independently of the climate assessment activity, will be crucial for narrowing these
uncertainties. (... )
"In addition, the research enterprise dealing with environmental change and the
interactions of human society with the environment must be enhanced. (... )
An effective strategy for advancing the understanding of climate change also will require
(I) a global observing system in support oflong-term climate monitoring and prediction,
(2) concentration on large-scale modeling through increased, dedicated supercomputing
and human resources, and (3) efforts to ensure that climate research is supported and
managed to ensure innovation, effectiveness, and efficiency. (p.5)"
Climate Science Plan

Vision Document
CEQ 013331
In response to the findings of the NRC in its June 2001, the President announced a new
Climate Change Research Initiative (COO) intended ",., to study areas of uncertainty and
identify priority areas where investments can make a difference." The CCRl will provide
a focus on research initiatives that can significantly reduce uncertainty in our
understanding of climate variability and change within 5 years. The CCRl also promotes
a vision focused on the effective use of scientific knowledge in policy and management
decisions, and continued evaluation of management strategies and choices.
The CCRl was intended as an effort to accelerate key areas of long-term research
supported by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGCRP
began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was codified by Congress in the Global
Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which mandates development ofa
coordinated interagency research program. Section 104 of that law requires the regular
revision of a "National Global Change Research Plan" and subsequent National Research
Council evaluation of any such revised plan.
This Strategic Plan is intended to ensure that the USGCRP and CCRl coordinate their
activities under the aegis of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and accelerate
progress on reducing the substantial uncertainties that exist regarding the Earth's climate
system and its future evolution. This Plan has resulted from extensive transparent
discussions with a wide range of stakeholders from the scientific community, interest
groups, the public and the media, including a public workshop held in December 2002.
This Plan will guide the conduct of climate change scientific research activities sponsored
or conducted by the U.S. Government. It will be modified and updated as warranted by
the emergence of key science findings and important new scientific questions.
VISION AND MISSION OF THE

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
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CEQ 013332
The core precept that motivates the CCSP is that the best possible scientific knowledge
should be the foundation for the information required to manage the imQactsof climate
variability and potential climate change. t.....
Thus the mission of the _..
CCSP is to: ( Deleted: andrelated aspects of global
.. . .. _ change.
Facilitate the creation and application ofknowledge ofthe Earth's global

environment through research, observations,decision support, and
communication.
The CCSP will add significant integrative value to the individual Earth and climate
science missions of its 13 participating Federal agencies and departments, and their
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coordinate research and integrate and synthesize info~a'iioi:i 'to achieve 'results ·tliat no
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,can be integrated and syn~es~ed to,Pllrsuc: .t~~ vision of th.e CCSP: .' . .. Deleted: focus8lldortent researchin
the program to
1. Improve knowledge ofthe Earth's past and present climate and environment, Deleted: panieipating agencies snd
research elements
including its natural variability, and improve understanding ofthe causes of
observed variabilitY and changes. Deleted: address thesebroadquestions
2. Improve quantification ofthe forces bringing about changes in the Earth's

climate and related systems.
. 3. Reduce uncertainty in projections ofhow the Earth 's climate and related
systems may change ill the future.
4. Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed

ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes.
5. Explore tire uses and identify the limits ofevolving knowledge to manage risks
and opportunities related to climate variability and change.
Each of the specific program elements and initiatives to be carried out under the Climate
Change Research Initiative (CCRI) or the U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) can be related to one or more of these five principal CCSP goals.
CEQ 013333
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE
"Today, I make our investment in science even greater. My administration will

establish the U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative to study areas of uncertainty and
identify priority areas where investments can make a difference."
President Bush, June 11, 2001
The Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) represents a focusing of resources and
attention on those elements of the USGCRP that can best support improved public debate
and decision-making in the near term. In particular, the goal of the COO is to -- within
the next 5 years -- improve the integration of scientific knowledge (including measures of
uncertainty) into policy and management decisions, and evaluation of management
strategies and choices.
To meet this goal, the CCRI aims to:
1. Reduce scientific uncertainty in three key areas of climate science:
a. Develop reliable representations of the climatic forcing resulting from

atmospheric aerosols. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone play unique, but poorly
quantified, roles in the atmospheric radiation budget. CCRI investments will be
used to implement plans developed by the interagency National Aerosol-Climate
Interactions Program to define and evaluate the role of aerosols that absorb solar
radiation such as black carbon and mineral dust. Proposed activities include field
campaigns (including aircraft missions), in-situ monitoring stations, improved
modeling and satellite data algorithm development.
b. Improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle (sources and sinks).
CCRI funds will be targeted for activities to carry out the Integrated North
American Carbon Program (NACP), a key element of the U.S. Carbon Cycle
Science Plan. This program will have an intensive focus on North American land
and adjacent ocean basin carbon sources and sinks to improve monitoring
techniques, reconcile approaches for quantifying carbon storage, and elucidate
key controlling processes and land management practices regulating carbon fluxes
between the atmosphere and the land and ocean. The NACP calls for expansion of
the AmeriFlux site network, the development of automated carbon dioxide and
methane sensors, improvements in ground-based measurements and inventories of
forest and agricultural lands, and empirical and process modeling.
c. Increase our knowledge of climate feedback processes. Poor understanding

of "climate feedbacks" - key interactions among two or more components of the
climate system, such as clouds, water vapor, ocean circulation, or sea ice - are
responsible for large uncertainties in our ability to reliably predict climate
CEQ 013334
variability and change. CCRI will prioritize activities to support increased Deleted: withanyreasonable
understanding of feedback processes affecting Arctic diinate 'vmahlHij"and confidence
Deleted:prioritize activities intended
change (sea ice, methane release from pennafrost). CCRI will also support to: resolve discrepancies in measured
activities to evaluate the role of clouds and water vapor in detennining surface surface IOd lower troposphere
temperature !mitis; measure and model
and lower troposphere temperature trends, and to improve basic understanding of Arcticand highlatitudeclimate
natural modes of climate variability (e.g. EI NiUo, North Atlantic Oscillation) that variability(fotUSing cspa:ially on the
role of seaice); improve bask
involve nonlinear feedback mechanisms affecting the atmosphere and the ocean. understanding of naturalmodesor
climate variability (e.g. EI Nilio.Nonh
AtlanticOscillation); anddocument
2. Enhance and expand observations of the Earth system. CCRI will support work to potential for abruptclimatechangesusing
reestablish the benchmark upper-air network, emphasizing data-sparse areas, and place paleoclimatic records.
new Global Atmosphere Watch stations in priority sites to measure pollutant emissions,
aerosols and ozone in specific regions. CCRI will also support work toward the
establishment of an ocean observing system that can accurately monitor changes in ocean
heat content, carbon uptake, and sea level. CCRl will support development of high-
fidelity climate data records from in-situ and satellite observing systems. These efforts
will benefit from, and contribute to, the design and operational implementation over the
next ten years of a new international Earth Observation program, in cooperation with our
international partners.
3. Increase our climate modeling capacity. CCRI will support continued development
and refinement of computational climate models that can simulate the past, present and
potential future conditions of the Earth system. Priority activities will focus on improving
model physics (particularly with respect to clouds and aerosols), increasing resolution of
climate model simulations, developing improved methods to assimilate observations into
model analyses and predictions, and exploring limits to predictability of climate
variability and change. CCRI will also support the development of climate mode ling
capabilities to provide routine model products for policy and management decision
support.
u.s. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
"We do not know how much our climate could, or will change in the future. We
do not know how fast change will occur, or even how some of our actions could impact
it."
President Bush, June 11, 2001
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is an organized set of linked
research program elements, which together support basic scientific research across a wide
range of interconnected issues of climate and global change. The USGCRP was
established by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to address natural and human-
induced changes in the Earth's global environmental system; to monitor, understand, and
predict global change; and to provide a sound scientific basis for national and
international decision making.
CEQ 013335
Each USGCRP research elements focuses on topics crucial to documenting and
monitoring change, improving projections of change, or developing useful products to
support decision-making. They all pertain to major components of the Earth's
environmental systems, which are undergoing changes caused by a variety of natural and
human-induced causes. Changes in one component (e.g. the atmosphere) affect the other
components (e.g. oceans, biota, etc.) such that it is not possible to understand the future
evolution of the climate system without understanding the important characteristics of
each of its individual components.
USGCRP research program elements include:
Atmospheric Composition - USGCRP-supported research focuses on how the

composition of the global atmosphere is altered by human activities and natural
phenomena, and how such changes in atmospheric composition influence climate, ozone,
ultraviolet radiation, pollutant exposure, ecosystems, and human health. Research
activities address: processes affecting the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer; the
properties and distribution of greenhouse gases and aerosols; long-range transport of
pollutants and implications for air quality; and integrated assessments of the effects of
these changes. Atmospheric composition issues involving interactions with climate
variability and change (such as interactions between the climate system and the
stratospheric ozone layer) are of particular interest at present.
Climate Variability and Change - USGCRP-supported research on climate variability

and change is being focused on how climate elements that are particularly important to
human and natural systems - especially temperature, precipitation, clouds, winds, and
storminess - are affected by changes in the Earth system that result from natural
processes as well as from human activities. Activities in the program are specifically
oriented toward: predictions of seasonal to decadal climate variations (for example, the EI
Nii'io/Southem Oscillation); improved detection, attribution, and projections of longer
term changes in climate; the potential for changes in extreme events at regional to local
scales; the possibility of abrupt climate change; and ways to improve the communication
ofthisinfonnation to inform national dialogue and support public and private sector
decision-making.
Global Carbon Cycle - USGCRP-supported research on the global carbon cycle

focuses on: (1) identifying the size and variability of the dynamic reservoirs and fluxes of
carbon within the Earth system and how carbon cycling might change and be changed in
the future; and (2) providing the scientific underpinning for evaluating options being
considered by society to manage carbon sources and sinks to achieve an appropriate
balance of risk, costs, and benefits. Specific programs and projects focus on: North
American and ocean carbon sources and sinks; the impact of land-use change and
resource management practices on carbon sources and sinks; projecting future
marine carbon sinks; and the global distribution of carbon sources and sink and how they
are changing.
CEQ 013336
Global Water Cycle - USGCRP-supported research on the global water cycle focuses
on: (1) the effects of large-scale changes in land use and climate on the capacity of
societies to provide adequate supplies of clean water; and (2) how natural processes and
human activities influence the distribution and quality of water within the Earth system
and to what extent the resultant changes are predictable. Specific areas include:
identifying trends in the intensity of the water cycle and determining the causes of these
changes (including feedback effects of clouds on the global water and energy budgets as
well as the global climate,system); predicting precipitation and evaporation on times cales
of months to years and longer; and modeling physical/biological processes and human
use of water, to facilitate efficient water resources management.
Ecosystems - USGCRP-supported research on ecosystems focuses on: (1) how natural

and human-induced changes in the environment interact to affect the structure,
functioning, and services of ecosystems at a range of spatial and temporal scales,
including those ecosystem processes that in turn influence regional and global
environmental changes; and (2) what options society has to ensure that desirable
ecosystem goods and services will be sustained, or enhanced, in the context of projected
regional and global environmental changes. Among the specific focus areas are: the
structure and functioning of ecosystems, including cycling of nutrients, and how these
nutrients interact with the carbon cycle; and key processes that link ecosystems with
climate.
Land UselLand Cover Change - USGCRP-supported research on changes in land use

and laud cover focuses on: (1) the processes that determine the temporal and spatial
distribution of land cover and land use change at local, regional, and global scales, and
how land use and land cover can be projected over timescales of 10-50 years; and (2)
how the dynamics of land use, land management, and land-cover change will affect
global environmental changes and regional-scale environmental and socioeconomic
conditions, including economic welfare and human health, and how global environmental
changes will affect land use and land cover. Research will identify and quantify the
human drivers of land-uselland-cover change; improve monitoring, measuring, and
mapping of land use and land cover and the management of data systems; and develop
projections of land-cover and land-use change under various scenarios of climate,
demographic, economic, and technological trends.
Human Contributions and Responses - USGCRP-supported research on human

contributions and responses to global change is relevant to each of the other research
program elements. The current focus of this research is on improving understanding of
the potential effects of global change on human health; human forcing of the climate
system, of land use, and other global environmental change; science-based regional and
sectoral assessments that accurately reflect the limits of current understanding; decision
support under conditions of complexity and uncertainty; and integrated assessment
methods. .'
CEQ 013337
PROGRAM DmECTION
In February 2002, the President created a new Cabinet-level management structure, the
Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration (CCCSTI), to
oversee the more than $3 billion annual investment in the combined federal climate
change research and technology development programs. The new management structure
places accountability and leadership for the science and technology programs in the
relevant cabinet departments.
As part of this new management structure, the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
was created to provide direct oversight and ensure that the USGCRP and CCRI
coordinate their activities and accelerate progress on substantial uncertainties regarding
the Earth's climate system. The budgets of the CCRl and USGCRP program elements are
developed and maintained separately, but the program management structure is identical
for both the CCRI and USGCRP elements.
Setting Priorities
In developing priorities contained in this Strategic Plan, the CCSP has considered
information from many sources including:
• The analysis and reporting requirements imposed by the Global Change

Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101 - 606);
• The focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties through the Climate Change
Research Initiative of June 2001;
• The recommendations in various reports of the National Research Council,

including the following key NRC reports:
• Climate Change Science: An Analysis ofSome Key Questions,
requested by the Administration and published in June 2001
• Global Environmental Change: Research Pathwaysfor the Next
Decade, a report published in 1999
• Planning Climate and Global Change Research, requested by the
Administration as part of the CCSP strategic plan development,
and published in February 2003.
• The annual program plans of the thirteen collaborating CCSP agencies and
departments, as documented in the annual series of Our Changing Planet
reports.
• The Discussion Draft Strategic Plan published by CCSP in November 2002.
• The deliberations of the nearly 1,300 scientists and stakeholders attending the
CCSP-sponsored Climate Change Science Workshop in December 2002.
CEQ 013338
~ Written corrunents submitted during a 60-day public review period after the
December 2002 CCSP workshop. When collated, these comments amounted
to nearly 900 pages of input from hundreds of scientists, interest groups, and
interested members of the public.
In addition, the National Research Council will provide a second report in late 2003,
expressing its conclusions and recommendations on the quality of this updated Strategic
Plan, on the process used to produce it, and on the process for developing subsequent
findings to be reported by the CCSP.
Criteria for Project Selection
To ensure that the projects funded under the CCSP address needs identified in this
Strategic Plan, the following criteria have been developed to assist participating agencies
in reviewing proposals for support:
Scientific or technical quality

• The proposed work must be scientifically rigorous as determined by
prospective merit review.
• Implementation plans should include periodic review by external advisory
groups (both researchers and users).
Relevance to reducing scientific uncertainties in priority areas

• Programs must substantially address one or more of the CCRI or USGCRP
program elements.
• Programs must respond to needs for scientific information that enhances
informed discussion by all relevant stakeholders.
Track record ofconsistently good past performance and identified metrics for
evaluatingfuture progress
• Programs addressing existing priorities with good track records of past
performance will be favored for continued investment to the extent that
timetables and metrics for evaluating future progress are provided.
• Proposed programs that identify clear milestones for periodic assessment and
documentation of progress will be favorably considered for new investment.
Cost and value

• Research should address CCRI and/or USGCRP program elements in a cost-
effective way.
• Research should be coordinated with and leverage other national and
international efforts.
• Programs that provide value-added products to improve policy and
management decisions will be favored.
CEQ 013339
0983_f_lq4qh003_ceq.txt
RECORD TYPE: FEDERAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR:Kenneth L. Peel ( cN=Kenneth L. peel/OU=CEQ/O=EOP [ CEQ] )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 9-JUL-2003 17:45:21.00
SUBJECT:: Annexes to the plan
To:jeffrey.b.clark@usdoj.gov @ inet ( jeffrey.b.clark@usdoj.gov @ inet [ UNKNOWN] )
READ: UNKNOWN
TEXT:
2 of 3
---------------------- Forwarded by Kenneth L. peel/CEQ/EOP on 07/09/2003
05:44 PM ---------------------------
phil cooney
07/09/2003 08:09:52 AM
Record Type: Record
TO: Kenneth L. peel/CEQ/EOP@EOP
cc:
subject: Annexes to the plan
---------------------- Forwarded by phil cooney/cEQ/EOP on 07/09/2003

08:09 AM ------------~--------------
phil Cooney
07/02/2003 07:20:55 AM
Record Type: Record
To: Quesean R. Rice/CEQ/EOP@EOP
cc:
QR, please print out attachments. THANKS! phil
---------------------- Forwarded by phil cooney/cEQ/EOP on 07/02/2003
07:20 AM ---------------------------
James R Mahoney <James.R.Mahoney@noaa.gov>

07/01/2003 01:39:35 PM
Record Type: Record
TO: CCSP@USGCRP.GOV, CCSP_INFO@USGCRP.GOV
cc:
Ladies and gentlemen -

A PDF t ext fi 1 e with the annexes for the strategi c pl an is attached for
your use. As I mentioned in my transmittal memo of last evening, this
annex material is also posted on the review site along with the
graphics.
page 1
OU34CO
CEQ 013390
Jim Mahoney
- Strat plan Annexes 6-30-03.pdf
James.R.Mahoney.vcf
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n: Mahoney; James
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email;internet:James.R.Mahoney@noaa.gov
title:Assistant secretary of Commerce for oceans and Atmosphere
adr;quoted-printable:;;U.S. Department of commerce,=OD=OARoom 5804,
=OD=OA14th Street & constitution Avenue, Nw;washington;Dc;20230;
fn:James R. Mahoney, ph.D.
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page 2
CEQ 013391
.1., "n ,
Climate Change Science Program

Proposed Observing System Enhancement
The Climate Change Science Program proposes to accelerate several ongoing climate
observing system activities focused OJ' reducing uncertainties in key components of the
climate system. This acceleration will ~so position the U.S. to work with its
international partners to implement the integrated earth observing system to be discussed
at the upcoming Earth Observations Summit.
Observing System Management ($15M) eV$0~,,*r·I~.J'~V\

~ . 1/ $/ rtfJ~ ~~
3 ".' 'Z :
~ ~IIM~+ !df.,J}~ ~+<A~Si
Implementation and operation of an optimum observing system for climate provides the
foundation for our long-term record of climate. Continuous evaluation of the"
effectiveness of the climate observing system and status reports ofthe state of the climate
system will be prominent deliverables.
Ocean Observations ($20M) vN-S ~-k !o v o7> ~ :>JeJ,llle- C~i- . .j..V,.~)

The storage and release of heat in the ocean is a central question for detemrining the tate
of climate change. This enhancement will accelerate U.S. contributions to an
international global ocean observing system for monitoring temperature, sea level change
and carbon storage in the ocean
Aeroso 1s ($25M) -
I I.
41'~fl\et'w
"Bro....." cto.J/· -h-vf,,:s~er\ c. o..e.roSols
Atmospheric fine particles (aerosols) can either absorb or scatter incoming solar
radiation, and they can alter the properties of clouds as well. This enhancement will
advance both our space- and ground-based observations of aerosols, which are a major
uncertainty ill projecting future climate change, as well as a central air quality issue.
Carbon Cycle Science ($15M)
Of the carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere, about half is currently taken up as part
of the natural cycling of carbon into the ocean, and into land plants and soils. This
enhancement focuses on advancing our observational capability for carbon cycling-in
North America, a key question for determining future levels of this most important
greenhouse gas.
CEQ 013409
DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT
DRAFT
STRATEGIC PLAN
CLIMATE CHANGE TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM
[Preliminary Concepts for the Front Piece}
[Planned/or release as a draft/or public comment in October 2003, in

conjunction with a series oftechnical workshops to be held in the Fall 2003,'
and/orfinal publication in April 2004, in support ofthe FY 2005 Budget]
DRAFT
August 15, 2003
Deleted: DraftCCTP Strategic Plan

RevSk.doc
BH Edits to bh edits to cctp strategic plan draftS,doc•.
CEQ 013565
DRAFf DRAFf DRAFf
Strategic Plan •. . .. (Formatted: Levell
Climate Change Technology Program
Overview (Front Piece)
"America's the leader in technology and innovation. We all believe technology offers great
promise to significantly reduce emissions. "
President George W. Bush, June II, 2001
OVERVIEW
1.1 Sustainable 21st Century World Economic Development
Solutions to many of the critical challenges facing 21st Century civilization~~J.n~ludi~&.ensuring .'1 .. Deleted: .
access to clean water and tadequate food supplies1' preserving the environment, improving . Deleted: ,
sanitation and human health, eliminating poverty, sustaining economic growth and expanding
opportunities for less developed regions .- are made more possible by the existence of
affordable, reliable and secure energy suPPffes. Eiiergy"isnotj'ust thii iiandmaideii 'o'fprospenty, - ..
I Deleted: production
Deleted: ,
but a key enabler for technical progress. An energy-rich global community can better pursue
lasting and equitable environmental solutions.
Forecasts of long-term energy demand suggest multi-fold increases in world energy consumption
during the 21 st Century, driven by expanding population and economic development. If world
gross domestic product (GDP) were to grow at a modest rate of one percent per year for the next .I. .' (Deleted: but
100 years, assuming current trends in technology "fmprovemen't anifc!i':iiig;iig 'eriergy~use' ... '-------------'
patterns, energy demand would be expected to nearly triple by the end of the Century. Ifworld
GDP were to grow, instead, at a rate of two percent per year, which would be more in line with
long-run trends, world energy demand would likely increase by a factor of seven over ,that of ... \ ( Deleted: 10 morethanseven·fold
current levels. Structural changes in economic activity and accelerated energy-efficiency'"
improvement may slow, but will not eliminate these growth trends. Energy demand in the
particular form of electricity, a strongly productive and versatile energy carrier, is expected to Deleted: Commercial
grow much faster than energy use in general. Deleted: todayis closelytied to
Deleted: L
Most of present-day energy supply is generated from the combustion of fossil fuels, namely, : Deleted: of
coal, oil and naturalgas.. As 'li' riisu'ff mc)st 'fong~teITii 'roreeasts predict" sliriiificiini Increases hi . Deleted: to the Earth'satmosphere,
anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (C62)"aii,fothe'r 'greeniious'ei:ises' over'th'c'iiext"' .. arising primarilyfromthecombustion of
~eveiaj decades" in accordance 'witii thii 'proje'etecrIiicreas'e
=..;...:=::..:....:::===-<1'.... . .
'irl energy diimaild:'To reduce the' fisk _'"
.
fos>il fuels
Deleted: expectemissions 10 rise
of climate change and aid sustainable development, we must face the challenge of growing the
global economy while simultaneously slowing the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and, as Deleted:
science justifies, substantially reducing such en\lss1c;ns. Advancedenergy·technoii;mes·offera·····- Deleted: The challenge facingthose
who seck 10 slowthe growth in CO2
potential solution to this difficult challenge. emissions, as well asthe emissions of
other greenhousegases, or eventually10
reduce such emissicns 10 low levels. is 10
imAgine whal is possible and explore the
best ways to proceed.j
Deleted: DraftCCTP StrategicPlan
RevSA.doc
bh edits to cctp strategic plan draftS.doc August 29,2003
lof2S
CEQ 013566
DRAFT DRAFT DRAFf
Although the challenge of simultaneously increasing energy supply ~ reduci~g.g~~~~o~s.e... ,: Deleted: dual
~ emissions' may seem daunting, 'three factors 'provide'some "iiasli for' optimism..
'First, we face Deleted: growing
~Iong-term chal1enge, requiting sustained leadership for decades. !J1e pro~e.ss.~finl1ov.ationand Deleted: and
technology advancement; accelerated by investments in research 'and
deveiopment (R&D), to Deleted: it is a
playa key role in influencing the future. Deleted: Its long-term natureallowsI
Second, most of the national and global energy infrastructure that will be required by the end of Deleted: Illedas the foundatlon for
buildingthis
the Century to support the envisioned levels of growth does not exist today. The energy
Deleted: , to
technologies and related infrastructure that will be built over the coming decades wiJI profoundly .
shape global ~con6mic groWih'and', iinp'ortantly; 'li-eip' aetermfne "fiitlireJ:e~~~~6~~~h~~.u;~ gas::'" .
Deleted: and througboutlhe restof the
Century, forbetter orworse,
emissions. These new technologies can be significantly influenced by innovation and Deleted: the
technology ieadership. .. .
Deleted: at whiebsocietycontinuesto
emit
Third, the modem world has a long record of technological achievement on a grand scale, from Deleted: es
agricultural production to national security, from exploration cf space to the curing of dreaded Deleted: Whattechnclcgies the global
diseases. This record of invention and progress provides a basis for optimism with regards to the marketplacechoosesasthe fOUlldatio. for
long-term challenge for climate change. Similarly focused and sus~lne'd'technoiogy'R&b' ". this future will havefarmore effecton
greenhousegas concentrations in the
efforts can be expected to produce similar results over time, which could enable the world to Earth'satmosphere inthe future, than
how we operatetheenergyinfrastructure
reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, contributing to the goal of the United Nations of today.
Framework Convention on Climate Change.,
Deleted: some
'1,3 ,Uiiited St~tes; AjiijroaCii Deleted: '

Deleted: goalof lilahilizing
atmospbericconcentrations of greenhouse
[he. {jn.ited .~~tes. ~s.a un.ique ~r.!J0~~nj,t~ ~? .~~ ~!e~d.er.i.~. t~~. !!,~~.~f~~.a~i?~, ?r.t~.:J.1o~~l he \ gases at acceptable level,.~
energy system necessary to meet the challenge of ensuring economic growth while reuucmg t e " Deleted: Leadership Role for lhe
risk of climate change. The world will need the development and deployment of a new . 'I. Comment: We don'thave quote, in
generation of clean energy technologies that'draw upon'the' w~rld ;;i 'diverse'ana 'abundant energy \..... any other section- so doleteto be
eonsis\Cll~ PlusIbisdoesn'tseem 10 fj~
resources. The Nation has an opportunity to create the technology for a cleaner and more
Deleted: "As weanalyze/he
efficient electricity industry that achieves low or near net-zero emissions. The Nation has an 'I,.:
.' poss/bflil/es. we will be guidedby several
opportunity to revolutionize the transportation sector through the creation ofa new generation of basic principles. Ourapproach mustbe
vehicles that uses advanced, clean fuels. The Nation has an opportunity to revolutionize the way ~. :;":' consistentwiththe long·term goal of
stabilizinggreenhouse gas concen~
in which it consumes energy in its homes and businesses. Making wise choices now in the
. . . Deleted: A, one of theworld', ~
development of advanced energy technologies will help ensure dramatic gains in economic
development and simultaneously reduce the potential impact o~the 'envfi6iiment:" 8e'iZiiig' these
Deleted: face
be
opportunities.Fowever, wiif not easy. It wlif require a 'ii6 ld'new approach to' deveiopfng 'th'e'" '.
'. Deleted: re..invention
.' Deleted: , indeed, demand
,en~rgy te?hnologies needed to ~ffe.~t,th~se cha~g;esin our <:ner&y sXstern" . .
" .', Deleted: and marketpenetration
On June 11,2001, the President reaffirmed the United States' commitment to the 1992 United Deleted: the
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)~a.n:d:its:C:~~§Y£o.~i:·:·. .... .. .. Deleted: desired
Deleted: R&D for
"
" .. " stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in Earth's atmosphere at a level that Deleted: y, and to R&Dfor """11.?~
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic-interference-with the climate-system.".... ·.. ·......
Deleted: intentioo topursue app~
Deleted: , signedbyPresident~
Deleted: Draftern Strategic ~~
I bh edits to cctp strategic plan draftS.doc
20f25
CEQ 013567
DRAFf DRAFf DRAFT
The President committed the United States to a goal of reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of
!he U.S. economy by 18% over the next decade. To meet this ambitious goal, the President
committed his Administration to pursue a broad range of activities to reduce growth of Deleted: Federal Govemmenl
greenhouse gas emissions. Th~se 'InCiudeip'atr oti'nltianves; 'one 'biidlmatedlange' science, and Deleted: straltgies
another on climate change technology de~dop'meri~'iiiat'togeiher'eiiibody'the'1oi-iger~temi .... Deleted:. He also launched
components of his overall policy approach.... .1 Deleted: to thisglobalccucern
On February 14,2002, the President established a Cabinet-level Committee on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration (CCCSTD to coordinate, Federal activities,in. t~i~ ~r~ ...T!Je . ..1- . ~ Deleted: galvanize
CCCSTI is charged with developing innovative approaches, iii·ilccordance'Wltii.·anurriber of'
basic principles. These approaches should: (I) be consistent with the long-term goal of
stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere; (2) be measured, as we learn more
from science and build on it; (3) be flexible to adjust to new information and take advantage of
new technology; (4) ensure continued economic growth and prosperity; (5) pursue market-based
incentives and spur technological innovation; and (6) be based on global participation, including
developing countries. The Committee is chartered to provide recommendations to the President
on matters conceming climate change science and technology; address related Federal R&D
funding issues; and coordinate with the Office of Management and Budget on implementing its
recommendations.
Under the auspices of the CCCSTI, there are two multi-agency, operating elements:
• The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

• The Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)
1.4 Climate Change Science Program
In order to inform, guide and pace overall strategy, the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
conducts research on the Earth's climate and natural systems, and on the effects of related human
activity. The CCSP aims to advance understanding of key phenomena and reduce scientific
uncertainty. It hopes to illuminate the causes and effects of climate change, and meet the
information needs of decision-makers. The CCSP's Strategic Plan was issued on July 24, 2003.
1.5 Climate Change Technology Program
The Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) coordinates energy technology research and ,.. ' Deleted: is the technology counterpart
development acti vities across ten Federal R&D age~des'- . TIiii ccrr
'j's chartered 'outthe to 'carry 10 the CCSP. BothCCSP and CCTPare
desigoed as science and technology
following activities: (a) review the Federal climate change technology R&D portfolio; (b) complements. working together. The
conduct economic and technical analysis of options in the climate context (e.g., scenario and CCTP
limits analysis); (c) make recommendations on the portfolio; and (d) coordinate communication
among and within agencies. .' Deleted: Dn.ft. CCTP Strategic Plan
I
... - RevSA.doc
T • • •.••••••••••••••••••• • •••••••••••••••••••••••• _ .
The CCTP aims to accelerate the development of key energy technology options believed to be
important, ultimately, to achieving the President's $?aL :r?~ C.c;!~str!,,:es.'through .i.t.~ .~~P _ .., {Dele~: UNfCCC
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programs, to create or improve key technologies,enhance their performanceand reduce their
cost. If successful, such technologies will eventuallyprovide the means for a smooth and cost- .tDeleted: • it ishoped,
effectivetransition to new, more efficieiit,.....
en'ergy'systemidh'at e'mit"Htiie'
-
or
'n. o'greenhouse'
- ..
gases. Deleted:
Although the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) Strategic Plan is a plan for Federal
leadership in a U.S. technology R&D program, it is set within a global contextand seeks broad
partnerships with others. At its core, the Plan embraces economic development as the principal
means by which the world's population will improveits condition, including the creation of
capital needed for investment in improved energyinfrastructure. The Plan presents a roadmap
for R&D to meet the critical challenges of the 21sf Century in a methodical way.
The Strategic Plan is not a policy document. Rather, it explores the potentialroles for Deleted:
innovation and technology'inrediidiiji the rfsks'6"( dim'ate'chan·ge.. I"i sets'foitii 'feli piifiHc Deleted: Noris it policy dependent,
commentand input, in an open and transparent process, a plan for Federal leadership of a long-
term, sustainedinvestment in a portfolio of energyresearch and developmentactivities. It is
aimed at spurring and coordinating innovation, expanding technical options,testing and Deleted: The UNFCCC goal of
stabilizingconcentrations of greenhouse
demonstrating feasibility and performance, and reducing costs. Accordingly, the Strategic Plan gases (GHGs)in the Earth'satmosphere,
: at any levelwithina rangeof plausible
lays out a long-term vision, goals and approaches to do this. The CCTP provides a means and a scenarios(e.g, 750ppm.650 ppm. 550
forum to effect U.S. leadership in this area, and encourage the formation of partnerships with ppm, 450 ppm). isa signifieanllong-tenn
others, domestically and internationally. challenge. To achievethisgoal
Deleted: Co,
1.6 Key Technical Considerations Deleted:
.' Deleted: in theatmospher
:
Two competingtrends set the stage for this climatechange technology challenge: (1) an Deleted: e
expected long-term decline in global greenhouse gas emissions that ultimately results .' Deleted: s
stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at some future level; and (2) an :
Deleted: s
expecteddramatic increase in global energy consumption; set the stage for the climate change ,".,' Deleted: ins
technology challenge. To reconcile these competing trends~..several ke)' technical considerations . '.
Deleted:
would have to be accommodated. These include the following: . ,/..::'::::
Deleted: -sparticularly carban-dioxide
(CO,). the most lmponaut of theglobal
• Greenhouse gases are removed slowly from the atmosphere and, dependingon the gas, may li.. warming sases-
pe.rsist for dec.ades' (n1~~h~n.e!· io. :c~n~~~~.~,( c~~b:o~ Ai~~I~er ~.~ :l:?~~er:: :i11:er~t?:re; :~~bl!i~aniin. / :,' Deleted: eventually peak, beginalong-
Qf.,GHG concentrations in the Earth's atmosphereimplies that, to prevent further /. term decline.and
accumiiilitionin ·tfie'atmoSPhere',' net" of
gi';biifeiili.isfons GHCJ"s'rnust iifti'mateiy 'lipi;roach .. Deleted: •
levels that are very low or nearly net-zero', ... ....... .. . .. .. Deleted: <">To effecta seamless
y,....... . ........•........... , - ..
transition \0 newenergy systems.
ullimatelywithnearlynet-zero'carbon
• This implies that the woi-ici 's energy'producing and consumini£iiec'iorii ·and· the' '3existing···· . ..
~
emissions,cost,performance. and
commercialandpublic acceptanceof
economicinfrastructure must, in the long-term, adopt advanced new GHG-free technologies futuretechnologies mustimprove
signi(u;antly,'
Deleted: <sp>Scienrific uncertainty
I "Net-zero" is a term of convenience indicating low or neaszero greenhouse gas emissions, when the full cycle is abeut the precise nature of the UNFCCC
goal rendersuncertain the timingand
taken into consideration. Due to losses in the system,.no fuel or process-can be.truly.t'neszero"... pace of actionsrequired. ,
StabilizationofGHG concentrations
, "GHG-Free" is term of convenience, meant to refer to a state or condition where the nelemissions of greenhouse Delet.¢: Drall CCTP Strategic Plan
gases COHOs) from the production or use of energy, including its total fuel cycle, the operation of other ancillary Rev5A.dac
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as capital assets are replaced or expanded. All nations must participate, recognizing that the
challenges posed by climate change are global in nature and global participation is required if
jhis transformation is to oC,cur witil
minimum economic d,i~~J?~()n:, Deleted: it is intheir economic intcrest
for
• The sheer scale of projected global energy demands requires that prospective energy systems
and sources be capable of substantial impacts in order to justify the large investments
required toward meeting the goals. A basic premise of this StrategicPlan is that prospective '~ Deleted: the
energy technology systems ~ius'i be iible 'te) contrlbiiie; 'In' cosi~effec'iive ways;'si.ibst.antiiii"""
amounts 'of miiig'at1i)n'e'ffeciS;' 'or'
tflat '\5; 'i'5' tid 00+' gygaton's more; '!iitegratlio
over' iii;; 2i '51'
Century, in order for them to be considered serious components ofa meaningful approach. { Deleted: plausible solution
Here, scale does matter: the table below denotes the scale of the challenge for several curr~nt
and projected energy technologies., ". ,{ Deleted: ,
~cientific un,c~rtain~ aJ:IO~~ .th~.. '

•
sensitivity of the climate to future
emissions of greenhouse gases
" ,: ';,: ~:~:»l!W~I~ i~:i\ G.~~~~~~0::«,:: ',': : ',".
ActiOns that Provide J Gigaton/year ofCarbon Mitigation Utilizing
::~,
",: ,::',", .
COmment: Reordered hullers, with
somemodificatiollS,
Deleted: 3
renders uncertain the scale and Deleted: S
Today's Technologies ""~
timing and of emissions ,'".'
Deleted:R
reductions required to meet the Coal Plants Deleted: I GW

Replace1,000 conventional 500·MW plants with "zero-
goal of the UNFCCC. It is simply emission" power plants Deleted: x
not possible, with current GeologicSequestration
" Deleted:
~ x
!mowledge, to define a "safe
level" of greenhouse gases.
Install l,QOO repositories,at I Mt of CO2 per year each
Nuclear
Build500 new power plants, each 1 GW in size
,
Deleted: ,
Forcarbonstabilizario", between 1000
(in lieu of unsequestered coal) and 2SOO gigatonsof carbonmust be
Efficiency
• It is clear that creating an energy Deploy 1 billion cars at 40 mpg instead of 20 mpg
mltigaredgtabaliydurmgthe 2I" Century'!
system with net·zero carbon Wind Deleted:
emissions may require more than Install7S0~ current U,S, wind generation
(in lieu of unsequesteredcoal)
a century to achieve. However, it Solar PV
is also clear that interim [nstaIl4,SOO~ current U,S, solar generation
improvements will be needed (in lieu of unsequesteredcoal)
during this Century to minimize Biomassfuels from plantations
Convertan area >7,5X the size oflowa's farmland to biomass
the impacts of potential climate Storage In new forest
change. Convertan area >30X the size of Iowa's farmland to biomass
• A seamless economic transition to new energy systems with nearly net·zero carbon emissions
will only occur if cost, performance, and commercial and public acceptance of future energy
technologies improves significantly.
Deleted: Draft CCTP Strategic Plan

RevSA,doc
activities, production processes,or consumption, maybe considered to be very low or nearzero, compared to typical
technologies or processes in use today.
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2 MISSION, GOALS AND APPROACHES
The eeTP Strategic Plan sets forth a vision and mission,replete with specific goals and Deleted: Withinthe ecntext ufthe
~proaches', based on the principles'sd'foith" by "£ne President:" "The 'CCTP;s vision:
that is, the'
U.s,-ntified, Uoited Nations Framework
Conventionon ClimateChange, t
desiredlong-term outcome of the program, is the attainmenton a global scale ofa technological
capability that will enable sustained economic growth while substantially reducing the risk of
potential climatechange, CCTP's mission, that is, the envisioned role for the CCTP, is to Deleted: humanity to meet the climate
changechallengesoFlbe21" Century
stimulatethe science and'techtioiogy enterpri"se' ot"ih"e"tjiiltecfSiates; "through coordinated}'eaeral
leadership of its own R&D programs, and in partnership with others, to achieve its vision
through the accelerated development of new energytechnologies with low or near-zero net
emissions of greenhouse gases: "........ " . ...... ".. ".."......... ".. Deleted: , climate-ceutraland
sustainable energyaDd GHGredueing
technologies
2.] Strategic Goals
Under the CeTP Strategic Plan, the CCTP agencies will pursue, as appropriate to their specific
agency missions, technology RD&D, aligned with the following four CCTP goals:
Goal #1: Transform Energy End-use....by. Improving Efficiency,

.,................... ,
'
Formatted: Levell
Deleted: •
• GHG-Free Infrastructure and Equipment. Highly efficient and well-matched equipment Deleted: and Fuel-useSwltchltrg
can significantly reduce GHG emissions, avoid other kinds of environmental,i".1R~~~~,. Deleted: emission
and reduce equipment life-cycle costs for delivering the desired products and services.
• Transition Technologies. Transition technologies are technologies that are not "GHG-
free", but capable of achieving significant reductions ofGHG emissionsin the near- and
mid-terms by significantly improving or displacing higher GHa-emitting technologies in
use today,
• Enabling Technologies. Enabling technologies contribute indirectlyto the reduction of

aHa emissions by making possible the developmentand use of other important
technologies. A reliable, modernized electricitygrid, for example, is seen as an essential
step enabling the deployment of more advancedend-use and distributed energy
resourcesneeded for reducing GHG emissions.
Formatted: Levell
Deleted: •
• Low-GHG.Electricity, Electricity will likelybe a premier energy cartier of any future Deleted: of All Forms of Energy
economy. Willie subs~nij"al"impj-o'''emeniS" iii et'flCiency"maY offset"as{gnH1c"ai-it "part'0'(' Deleted: -Free
expected future demand, increasing electrificationand growing demand would require Formatted: Font: NotItalic
additional supplies of electricity from sources with low or near-zero net GHG emissions,
,.-., - _ _ ~: ': .. _. Formatted: Font: NotItalic
Deleted: Draft crn Strategic Plan
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• Low-GHG Fuels. It is expected that any future economy will have a continuing need for { Deleted: -Free
portable, storabfdiieiii fodlea~ power,transport iiiid'mo'biiiiY:Hydrogen 'IS 'expected 'to
play an important role as an alternative to petroleum in its many uses for transportation.
Goal #3: Capture and Sequester CQ;, by D~~ect.all~.I~I~~rect.ft{et"ods. . . .:1.. i Deleted: 0
co;: Capture and Sequestration. Innovative means for gaseous carbon-dioxide capture
from various single-point sources, both energy and non-energy sources, and directly from
the atmosphere, combined with its permanent sequestration - meaning C02 storage or
conversion to beneficial use without net GHG emissions to the atmosphere if
successful, could provide an important and pivotal technological advance.
• Low-GHG Feedstocks and Materials. The economic activities of any future economy, I. .{Deleted: ,Free
including those'oflieilVY Industry, 'miiiiti"g; manufactUriiig, agriculturearid construction,
will require feedstocks and other material inputs to production. The process for making
cement, for example, is a target for improvement.
Goal #4: Reduce tile Effect ofllon,-,cf?2PHG.splld of Non-Energy So.urces. 0f.~O:z.. . J. Deleted; MWgg(~
Deleted:
• Greenhouse Gases Other Than CO;:. Anthropogenic emissions of the many greenhouse Deleted: the Contributions /0 Glob4/
gases other than C02,' including methane, nitrous oxide, and several high-global Warming of
warming potential (GWP) gases, can contribute to global warming in significant ways, Deleted: Otherthan CO"
and may present more cost-effective mitigation opportunities in the near- to mid-term" Deleted: .
2.2 Approaches
The following approaches are envisioned to be employed by the CCTP to achieve the above-
stated goals:
• Strengthen Climate Change Technology R&D

• Strengthen Supporting Basic Research and Universities and National Laboratories
• Enhance Opportunities for Partnerships with Businesses, States and Others
• Increase International Cooperation on Related Science and Technology
• Support Cutting-Edge Demonstrations
• Improve the Means for Measurement, Monitoring and Verification
• Support Exploratory Research of Novel Concepts
2.2.1 Strengthen Climate Change Technology R&D
~~'~fr~bii~'?J:~bCi:i~i~:~'~~~~~~ri~1:nf::~liitai~~h'~~~~:6~Il~Th~t~:4~~::~:1~;~::":I: :..
Deleted: Regarding the current state of
US. climatechangetechnologyR&D, I
Deleted: DraftCOP Strategic Plan
of this portfolio is evidenced, in part, by the Federal expenditures, amouiltltiitolU>bHiion'per··· RevSA.doc
year in related technology R&D. These investments are summarized in the technology sections Deleted: ofstabilizingGHG
concentrations
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ofthe Strategic Plan, and in more detail in nearly 100 Key Technology Profiles, accessible
separately at http://www.cctp.gov.
In order to strengthen the current state of the

U.S. climate change technology R&D, the
CCTP will seek input and work with others "Evaluate the currentstate oj U.S. climate
to review the current Federal R&D portfolio, changetechnologyR&D and make
vis-a:,vis the stated program goals. The .r:e.c;om1JJ.l~1J.44ao.1Js.fQr. fmprq)!cmcnfs':: . ?Deleted:
ccrp 'Wiii 'make'iieriodlc 'recommendations . Deleted:
to the CCCSTI to strengthen the focus of
and support for climate change technology R&D to match the mix and level of R&D investment
required by the nature and size of the technical challenge.
2.2.2 Strengthen Basic Research at Universities and National Laboratories
The dual challenges of addressing global Deleted: Underlying the applied R&D
."Provideguidanceon strengthening basic
~Hinaie diiirlge'an'd'proVidlitg' the' energy' for technology development is supporting
basic research.
research at universities and national
supply needed to meet future demand and
laboratories, including the development oj
sustain economic growth are easily among the
the advancedmitigation technologies that
largest and most complex endeavors in
offer the greatestpromise for low-cost
human history. Success will likely require
reductions ofgreenhouse gas emissions."
discoveries and innovations well beyond what
today's science and technology can offer.
Science must not just inform decisions, but provide the knowledge foundation on which new
technologies are built The CCTP framework will strengthen the basic research enterprise in the
national laboratories and academia so that they will be better prepared to find solutions and
create new opportunities. A strong and creative science program is necessary in several arenas:
• Fundamental discoveries can reveal new properties and phenomena that can be applied
to development of new energy technologies and systems. These can include ( Deleted: energyandcaroonproblems
breakthroughs In our underiitancHiig 'of bl()foglcai 'fu'nctf<ins;propertles' an'd'phenomena of
nanomaterials and structures, computing architectures and methods, plasma science, and
many more that currently are on the horizon.
• Understanding how large and complex systems function requires the ability to perform
predictive modeling and simulations, which incorporate a wide range of scenarios,
assumptions, and time and length scales. Science-based predictions can bring together Deleted:
fundamental experimentation, management oflarge and complex data sets, and . Deleted: DraftCCTP StrategicPlan
RevSA.doc
modeling and computational simulations to accelerate dramatically discovery and reduce .-
Deleted: climatechange
the time and cost of bringing new innovations to the marketp~a_~e:_ '- '.-' .
Deleted: 5
Deleted: Theymust also be awareof

• Developing new .tec.~~~I?~~.s .~~~ ~e~~::vi!~:~g~ir~,~?: ~~~~a~~:o~i~t~~l.~~at: .. ': .... how businessesoperate and make
talent well versed in the concepts and technologies of modem science - workforce dc<:isloos to ensurethatthe technologies
development and education is therefore a key role for the science enterprise.• _ they male arc adopted in the
marketplace,
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2.2.3 Enhance Opportunities for Partnerships
With regard to the development and

adoption of climate change technologies, "Develop opportunities to enhance private-
Federal research is but one element of the public partnerships in applied R&D to
overall approach. Engagement in this expedite innovative and cost-effective
process by private entities, including approaches to reduce greenhouse gas
business, industry, agriculture, construction emissions."
and other sectors of the U.S. economy, as
well as by non-Federal governmental
entities, such as the States, and non-governmental organizations, is essential in order to focus
scarce R&D investments wisely and expedite innovative and cost-effective approaches to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
Partnering facilitates the transfer of technology to the marketplace, once the technology R&D is
completed. Partnering can also help guide and improve the productivity of Federal research.
Private partners also benefit, as those who are engaged in Federal R&D gain rights to intellectual
property, which can help motivate further investment in the commercialization of technology.
Today, partnering is a common mode of operation in most Federal R&D programs, but this can
be improved. Opportunities exist for private participation in virtually every aspect of Federal
R&D. With respect to climate change technology R&D, the CCTP seeks to expand these
opportunities, in R&D planning, program execution, and technology demonstrations.
2.2.4 Increase International Cooperation
Given the global nature of the challenge, and in recognition of the contributions being made by
others abroad, the CCTP seeks to engage, government to government, other nations in large-
scale cooperative technology research initiatives. Such cooperation can prove to be important to . 1 . (Deleted:. ifnol essential. J
the success of U.S. technology development initiatives. In certain areas of climate change T .•
technology R&D, such as advanced wind turbine design and fusion energy research, many
advanced technical capabilities reside abroad, as well as in the United States.
The technology development can benefit from international cooperation, through the leveraging
of resources, partitioning of research activities addressing large-scale and multi-faceted complex
problems, and sharing of results and knowledge created. Under the auspices ofthe Cabinet-level
CCCSTI, the CCTP has contributed to several recent examples ofthis approach, including the
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (23 countries), the Nuclear Energy Generation IV
Initiative (9 countries) the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (19 countries), .1 ....{Deleted: ;
and the International H'ydrogeri'Inltiiitl"ve«(;'i·countrles)' ·.. .
Deleted: DraftCcrP Strategic Plan
T •••••••• • . • • • • • . • •. . . . _ ....
RevSA.doc
2.2.5 Support Cutting-Edge Technology Demonstrations

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Demonstrations of cutting-edge climate change technologies are an important aspect of the goal
of advancing climate change technologies. They can help fill the gap between the R&D phase of
a technology development project, where a concept may have been proven in principle or shown
to work in the laboratory, but is still uncertain, and the commercialization phase, where
substantial investment, motivated by clear and expected financial returns is required.
Technology demonstrations afford unique

opportunities to reduce investment "Make recommendations for funding
uncertainty by making more known the demonstration projects for cutting-edge
parameters of a technology's cost and technologies."
operational performance and by pointing to
areas needing further improvement or cost
reduction. Technology demonstrations also evidence Federal leadership in developing a
technology, which can have important influence on the decisions of others. '
2.2.6 Improve the Means for Measurement, Monitoring and Verification
Improved technologies for measuring and

monitoring gross and net greenhouse gas "Develop improved technologies for
emissions and concentrations are measuring and monitoring gross and net
important to the motivation and greenhouse gas emissions."
achievement of climate change-related
technology development and adoption.
Such technologies are needed to inform, through science, technology development and , {Deleted: the
deployment plans and strategies, as well as to verify attai~merit o(emissloiis'reductlons.
A wide array ofGHG sensors, measurement platforms, monitoring and inventorying systems,
and inference methods are needed to meet basic measurement needs. Sensors and systems need
to be designed within a holistic and hierarchal architecture to calibrate and verify emissions,
atmospheric concentrations and stored carbon sinks, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. , -
D'eleted: •
Additionally, field experience is\equtreCi to help shape the 'path forT futUre' technology ,y , , . . Deleted: nd from global
development. Deleted: -
Deleted: perspectives, cascading down
The technological advances envisioned over the next century and beyond are complex, involving 10 national, regional, and locsl areas,
and
10 individual point sources
numerous subsystems and processes, ,';{th long ttmefrnmes'anifpote'ritiiif pllenomeniifiit'm'ust'
be understood. Emerging capabilities for the modeling, simulation, and prediction of complex Deleted: solutions required
integrated systems, involving experiments, analysis of large complex data sets, modeling, and
computational simulation will be invaluable in expeditiously determining the potential viability
of these systems. Investments in integrated assessment of engineered systems can dramatically
shorten the technology cycle and reduce life-cycle costs.
2.2.7 Support Exploratory Research-of Novel-Concepts .. , " ...... , RevSA,doc
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Apart from the existing basic research and applied R&D"p':~w.~:'!:s~. ~er~ .ar~ .?~Ii~::~.d. ~o .b~.a .I Deleted: and
number of areas that are innovative, novel, cross-cutting or integrative in concept to warrant Deleted: basic "search
further interest. However, many do not seem to fit easily into the existing frameworks of Federal
R&D funding or organizational hierarchies. These are areas where exploratory research ofnovel
concepts, pursued along unconventional lines of inquiry, might add significant value or uniquely
complement an otherwise robust Federal technology R&D program.
3 STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS TECHNOLOGY WORKING GROUPS
The eeTP Strategic Plan is a roadmap for . Energy Production- DOELed ( Deleted: flexible
.... Hydrogen" .....
charting investments in energy'tec!1noic)gyneeded Renewable fuels
to reduce the risk of climate change. It is flexible, Low Carbon Fuels
and will incOlporate new knowledge as it RenewablePower
becomes available from scientific research Nuclear FissionPower Deleted: responding to future
Nuclear PusionPower . . .. discoveries andpolicy changes. which
activities that are part ofjhe:C.~$:I\~~~/r(,tTI..... :...... . Low.Emissions.Fossil-Based-Power.. may-indeed an: Ukely to-arise from
energy• R&D projects carried out under the to.CCTP.po' ... • ~!~!ric. q~.4 ~.~cj.l.nft!\s.truclure (i..~ -,~q. Deleted: insights developed under
On-going evaluation of the CCTP R&D portfolio Enabling Elements)
'will be conducted so thatresources 'rrui)" be .... . ..... Energy Efficiency- DOELed
Deleted:
Deleted: dun.~
channeled to the most productive and promising Transportation
Deleted: R&D
areas. The Technology Working Groups (see Buildings
box) describes the current R&D priorities in Industry: Deleted: It isdesigoed toprovide
"what" and"when"flexibility to policy.
support of CCTP. Low GHG and EfficientProcesses makers within a strategic framework.
GHG Capture
Low or Net-ZeroGHG Materials
Federal support and leadership in basic and Low or Net-ZeroGHG Feedstocks
applied R&D is but one part of the overall effort
Basic Research- DOELed
needed to develop and commercialize climate Biotechnology
change technologies. The active participation of PhysicalSciences
industries and businesses alsois essential, not ComputationalSciences
only to accelerate technology development, but Environmental Sciences
also to give government policy-makers an Other Gases - EPA Led
appreciation of the business risks associated with Energy & Waste- Methane
commercializing new technologies. The CCTP Agric, Methaneand Other Gases Deleted: Sotoois the Deed to
.. 'High GWPGases : .
must also work internationally to ac~eieiaie" ... :1 Deleted: speed
. Nitrous-Oxide.... ···.· ..
development and diffusion of climate change .. Ozone Precursors& BlackCarbon
technologies, especially in developing countries,
where most of the growth in GHG emissions is Measuringand Monitoring - NASNNOAA Led
Sensorsand Platforms
expected in the future. Global Monitoring
Monitoring AreaSources
The process for developing and updating the Inventory Methods
GeTP Strategic Plan employs two
complementary analitrcal
to()ls: -. _ . .. , Sequestmtion-·USDA Led-. I. Deleted: • apartfrom thebroad-based
expertreviews. work.lhops andpublic
Geologic input,
...... Terrestrial
Deleted: Draft ern Strategic Plan
• Portfolio Analysis Ocean RevSA.doc
ProductiMaterials
• Scenario Analysis
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Deleted: R&Dportfolio analysiscan be
accomplisbed in. "",ety ofw.ys. Most
4 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS attemptto assess theelements oflbe
portfoliowith respecllO S1l'1lteglc goals
and examine therobusmess of'the
.Indevel~pini?this.Strate$l'c Pia!!, six in~e.~~~e~cr 'Y?!.k!I1~ w.~~'ps r,~,,:iew.e~ .and ~v,~lu~t7d, the portfolio with respect torelevance.
potenJial contributions andlikelihood of
wide range of Federal climate change technology R&D activities and conducted a portfolio success, Undertilecrn
analysis of these activities, Each working group focused on a particiitar'coiTipori~tofihe" ,
as
..::.;:·e'-'-r·l;gy.......::'S.Ly"'St:.;:·e"'in~~ such ~~61~~C: ~~9~~S~t1:6~; :re.n.e~~~!~: ~~~~!': ~r:~y:4~~~~;: ~~. :..
"'o. :.v.::;era=-lI:.. ·en==
Formatted: Font: Italic
Deleted: portfolio
working groups gathered input from other ongoing R&D planning processes and held technical
workshops, inviting experts 'from tiiiiversities; iiidustr);,' nlitloiiai ·iliboratoiies;·noii~g6vemmeiitaJ Deleted: tile
organizations, and others to examine and critique theiI;"w~r~, ... Deleted: e

Deleted: aspect of the climate change
technology challenge
From this input, the working groups conducted technology portfolio analyses, Among their tasks
were to develop ~'long:teiTn vislorl,ch'araete'i{Ziiig therole, deslreifeiiCi:stiite'ancfcoritifblition'!Q Deleted: other
future energy supply or GHG emissions reduction potential for their technology area. They Deleted: ongoing
identified: key technologies and developed profiles, describing current and priority R&D areas; Deleted: T
collaborative activities with industry and intemational stakeholders; technology transfer and Deleted: technological progress
commercialization activities; and supporting basic research needs. The results are presented in Deleted: tile
Section 8 of this Strategic Plan. • . ........ ......... ...
t I. ..,. Deleted: body
Deleted; (Section 8)
5 SCENARIO ANALYSES Deleted: Designing a technology
portfolio, in light of the
To better understand. u.ncertaillties. ~g.ar~~ng" p.?pu.la,ti~n..~~~.th" fut.ureb~n~~gx .de~al1ds... climate, Deleted: surrounding
sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions, and potential pathways to glo al economic Deleted: intonsity
developmeny~~na~o anal~sis w~~ ~s.e~~~oyi~e.!I1~i~h.~i.~t~.",?t~n~~l,t~c~I10.1~!?!~c~I,,~~e~s, ,..• ' Deleted: ,and climate scienceitself.
transitions, -
ann
-
timelines.,.,.These
. .
insights
....
can. guide
....
near- and mid-term
.
investments in
.1.... .
climate
... ,
requiresan exploration of a rangeof
technology R&D. ", possible future, S
Deleted: as animportant component of
thisexploration, as it
Based on a review of more than fifty long-term CCTJ> .T.echnology. Scenarios
'energy analyses in the open scientific .literature Deleted: s
that reflect the above considerations, and CCTP scenarios focus on: Deleted: • anduncertainties
consultation with experts in R&D planning, • Key Sector-Level Transitions Deleted:
technology, climate change, and economics, three • Key Technologies Deleted: today's
• Exploration of Technology Limits
technology scenarios emerged as a robust basis Deleted: The major dynamic shaping
• Technology Cost & Performance Goals each of theCCTPscenartos isa required
for climate change technology R&D planning. declinein greenhouse gasintensity,
lh. e.se.s,~e,na.t:i?,~ ,\Ve.r~, u.sed to .b~tter.llnd~rs~.r:d., ...GC:Ir. ~~~!1,l!f!~.S, !!X e.b,l!se~ .l!n:, whichultimately results in tile
stabilization of greenhouse gas
what technologies are likely to have the greatest • Analysis of>50 long-term energy concentrations. while globalenergy
value, when these technologies must be available, analyses, consumption is simultaneously
and at what scales they must be deployable. • Consultations with experts in R&D increasing, C<lnsequenlly, all the
planning, technology, climate change. scenarioswould reverse a century-locg
and economics. trendof increased energy cons~~
It is important to note that these scenarios are Deleted:
technology scenarios constructed'speclficiiiiy'to .. Deleted: T
aid in strategic R&D planning. They danot· .
Deleted: CCTP
define the policy methods that mayor may not be required to achieve the deployment of climate
Deleted: fundamentally
change technologies nor are they based upon specific stabilization levels. Rather the scenarios
Deleted: Dl1lft ccrr Strategic ~r~
120f2S
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jlJuminate technological approaches that could be employed over a range ofpossibl~,future ,. Deleted: arcrobust in!hal they
energy' consumption levels and'a range'ofGHG emissions rducrlon 'goaiS while slmuItaneously Deleted: possiblestabilization levels
preserving global economicdevelopment. , • .... " . " .. , . '
., Deleted:
Deleted: The s=arill> .. ~ used10
lhe three technology scenariosare organized around the energy'sector andthe devdopment of betterunderstand wb.U Itchnologies are
likelyto havethe greatest leverageon the
low or near-zero GHG fechnolofi1es, as'a result anne dominant'role the'energy s'ect'or' j)iaysin, ,,\', challenge,whenthesettehnologies must
determining GH~sions: til afi'sceiuiiios, majiirgafns'are'assume'd in'eiiei-gy~effideiicy~' \, be availableiftheyare10 provide the
'~%~~g~i~:~:e~~~n:~~no~y:~tft-:;fit;?::dctot~~~:;:jl$ti
~~~t~~~~:~~£Jle::tint·:''~~,": '
greatest value.and at whitscalesthey
must be deployable.
,
Deleted: 1
in all scenarios as a fuel fora zero-net carbon transportation sector and, in the first scenario, to :t..:, 1
allow fossil fuels (e.g., hydrogen from sequestered coal) to serve small-scale, dispersed \t,:" <It> Technology5oeoanos'!
applications (e.g., residential fuel cells). Further,,al~ ~~7I1~ri,?S ,~~l:1~~J~~c,~~,f\1~, ~~n~,~~J!1~J.l,t of '1:\': , Formatted: Level 1
other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and nitrous oxide)and'significant amounts of terrestrial \ \::'",
carbon sequestration. In all scenarios, global economic growth is sustained. " ',: ~', ',', : ~,;.:',
Deleted: <sp>
:-. Deleted: explorethecODditi0"t ~'l'10
T1' • • •• • • • • • • • • •• • •• • • ,. • • •. •.••• •• •• •.• ••••• • • ...."
, I',
5.1 "Closing the Loop on Carbon" Deleted: -carbou

addressio~ .h. clim.~
:IN'}."""" onvisions a future in which engineered carbon sequestration proves both
technically vhible' (i.e., low
leakage) and eccnoiriicallyviable, 'Thisassiires thecontinued :,
• f:'!
,:~ \,'\, ':'
;\ Deleted:
.':. Deleted: However, primary eOfT!», fUr
Deleted:,
viabilityof fossil fuels. The continued useof coal must be accoriipanied'by the 'devdopme'nt o'f ':\ "',, Deleted: indeedsomemightS'\Y .~!'l'l~
an altemative fuel infrastructureto bring ... , .... , .... , .. " ..'.... ". ,.. " ":,,,
~~Jg:~~~is1:g1;h~;'i{'~
Deleted: (
"
Deleted: demand
Technology Scenario #1:
::', Deleted: in 00 scenario is ov~
"Closing the Loop on Carbon"
':', Deleted: without
unconventional oil and gas sources (e.g., The Standard Suite of Technologies is '~, ',: :': Deleted: CO,pulled from the I ..:T151
Substantially Augmented by Engineered C02
methanehydratesand oil shale) becomes .Sequestration, which .Meets Key Technical"
,\ '.'<';':: Deleted: The morethattaD "'I ..• 16
important. ' Economic, and Environmental Goals ',: Deleted: Finally. i
Fossil-Based Systems (Fuels, Power, Chemicals) "\ Deleted:, worldwide,
While fossil fuels serve as the backbone of Remain the Backbone of the Energy System Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
the energysector throughout the century in Unconventional Oil & Gas become Economically
:\ Deleted: "ClosingtheLooponC7i7f
this scenario, they are not the only Viable
Solar, Wind and Bio-Fuels Industries Achieve ':: Deleted: e fIrSt
contributors. Non-fossil energy .Maturity . , .. ,.. ' .. .... .., ' :: Deleted:, is
technologies (s'uch' as'Wind, solar; b'iomas's, Hydrogen Becomes a Significant Energy Carrier ,: Deleted: bighpennanency
and other renewables, as well as nuclear The Full Potential of Conventional Oil & Gas is
~must contribute heavilyto meet the Realized \ Deleted:, alongwiththe even~
expectedincreased demand for energy, Dramatic Gains in Energy Efficiency Occur Deleted: dveat
§perg)' efficiencymust also playa Other GHGs Successfully Addressed Deleted: s
'{n'
substantiaiioie avoidfng tfte 'ne;;d' for'iiew ,....
Sustainable'Economic- Development and:
Stabilization Achieved
Deleted: The standard suiteof ~
energy supply, In fact, by 2100, the total '--_=::.:.:.::=:::..:.=:;;.;,;:.:::...... -J
Deleted: Thisstandanl suite in~
energy produced from renewables and Deleted: DraftCCTP Strategi~
nuclear.coupled with.savings rrom efficiency:couldexceed,-in. si~e,.cuR'e?t ·annual world energy.." ": Deleted: today
production" Thus."t~ls scenano assumes not Just success for fossil fuels, It also represents ' '
. . . . • • . . • . •'t . . . . . . . • . _. . • . . • , • • . • • . • • • . • • . . • • . . . . . . . . • . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . .
Deleted: "Closing theLoopon Carbon"
Deleted: is
bh edits to cctp strategic plan draft5.doc August 29,2003
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success for renewable energY,. nuclear po\V.er! and eI1;~~y'.e~c~~cy:. In ~dditi~~", Jerrest.J:ial Deleted: s
sequestration plays an important supporting role, particularly early in the century. Deleted: abatement of other greenbcuse
gam is erirical, and
5.2 "A New Energy Backbone" . { formatted: BuUets and Numbering

Technology Scenario #2
"A New Energy Backbone" Deleted: "A NewEn.rgy Backbon.... I
The second scenario represents a world in
;liidi sequestration'plays aniche role, " Extraordinary Advances in Solar, Wind, and/or Deleted: •
most likelyas a result ofeither.the.te~h.no Traditional Bio-Energy are Realized Deleted: :
economiclimitations of sequestration or "j..," Ne~- Genera·ti~n ·of"Ecoi;omiciJ:li Y · . - . Deleted: ;
dramatic breakthroughs in renewable;· . . Coiripetltive.·hiliereilt1Y~Sare·Nijcreaj-·Fission
and/ornuclear energy. whichgive them a Power is Accepted by the Global Marketplace
Sequestration is Limited to Niche Markets Deleted: utilityof
significantcompetitive advantage relative Limiting Fossil Fuels .-
to fossil fuels. In additionto providing Deleted: valuoble
Together, Renewables and Nuclear Become the , ,
, "
electricity, renewables and nuclear energy New Backbone of the Energy System ",
Deleted: one
are an important source of hydrogen in the Hydrogen Becomes a Significant Energy Carrie Deleted: extraordinary
second scenario. Due to the limited role for The Full Potential of Conventional Oil & Gas is
Formatted: Bullets andNumbering
carbon sequestration in this scenario, the Realized
Deleted: <sp>
deVeiOPrii6ni ·ofunconventional' Oil arl,1 gas ." "Dramatic Dains-in" Energy Efficiency Occur
Other GHGs Successfully Addressed Deleted: "Beyond theStandardSuite", I
resources is not as extensiveas in . •. Sustainable Economic Development and.
technology scenario #1. Ho~ever, With as Stabilization Achieved ..
" Deleted: •
'::: Deleted: eXtnlordinary
all scenarios, signifi~t -g"atn·s in" energ5'-
efficiencyare ~ealiie·d; other greenhouse "
,/; Deleted: Draft CCT1' Strategic Plan
RevSA.doc
gases are addressed, and terrestrial
Comment: This WI p:lI1lgraph and
sequestration plays an importantsupport accompanying tablewerehighly
role. confusing,anddonotallowa distinctioo
Technology Scenario #3: betweenthe threesccnanosin a
"Beyond the Standard Suite" ':, melllingfulquantitative way. Suggeil
5.3 "Beyond the Standard Suite" replacingwilb graph> similar10 those
" ,
fouod in the GTSP thatshow expected
Breakthroughs Allow Increasing Reliance on contributions by lCcbnology alt on the
The third scenario envisions an energy New Technologies that Go Beyond the Standard samecurve.
';ystem "where one'or more exotic " Su"ite; "for example: . " .. _."." -" Deleted: Eachseenario exploresa
Fusion Power technclogiealfutu'" thaI might applyover
technologies that have yet to be perfected, a range of future conditions-population
or perhaps even conceived, are adopted by Global Super-Conductivity Power growth. economic growth. energy..
Transrnission Grids, : efficiency improvements, the
the marketplace at scales at least as large as Orbiting Solar Power Satellites. : aggressiveness of effortscurb greenhouse
the global energy system of today. These An Array of Bio-XTechnologies gases. and stabilization goals. Table I
shows the ranges of contributions that
more exotic technologiesinclude fusion Hydrogen Becomes a Significant Energy Carner primaryenergysources and engineered
energy, genetically-engineered biomass The Full Potential of Conventional Oil & Gas is sequestratienmUSI becapableof
Realized affonlablyproviding at differenttime
energy, or space-based solar power. As periodsand cumulativety over the full
with the other scenarios. significant gains in Dramatic Gains in Energy Efficiency Occur century. Manyranges arc large,
energy efficiency are realized,othe;··"· "."""" ." "OtherGHGs Successfully-Ad<lressed·""· reflectingboth the uncertainty in the
Sustainable Economic Development and underlyingp>rameters and variationsin
greenhousegases are addressed, and Stabilization Achieved the energymixeslbatan: consistentwilb
thescenarios. However, comparing the
terrestrial sequestration plays an important scale oftoday's energysystem(shownin
support role. • " the second column of TabI. t) with the
projection. for the future, the immense
seale oflbetecbnologicatchallengewe
II face is5Iear"~
~
I bh edits to cctp strategic plan draft5.doc
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--I-' ,{ Formatted: Levell
6 GlliDING FRAMEWORK FOR PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT
The entire CCfP planning process; portfolio analyses, workshops, expert consultations, and
scenario analyses, resulted in a general guiding framework for the CCTP Strategic Plan and its
accompanying portfolio of R&D investments, including:
6.1 Support a Robust Portfolio:
Diversification ofthe climate change technology R&D portfolio is important because (I) the
magnitude of the challenge makes it extremely unlikely that a single technology could meet the I, (Deleted: classor
challenge on its own, (2) a diversified portfolio is a solid hedge agai~st'tiieposslbiliiY'that some
advanced technologies may not be as successful as hoped, ~ others in the portfolio could "I. ,( Deleted: as
exceed expectations, and (3) a robust, diversified science and technolog"y"c'apabiHiY' will maintain
the flexibility to respond to, and to assimilate, pertinent information from other countries,
institutions, or areas of scientific inquiry.
6.2 Sequence R&D Investments
Investments in the global portfolio can be sequenced over time. Thus, supporting a robust
portfolio does not necessarily mean that everything must be done immediately. Natural
sequencing of R&D should be based upon (I) the expected times when different technologies
would be available and cost-effective; (2) the need to quickly resolve critical uncertainties and, { Deleted: need to
are'
~y cases, to hold back significant con'tlngent're'se'arch'untifs'uch' iin'ce'rtaliiiil~s' resolved;
and (3) the need to demonstrate early the feasibility of determinant technologies. (For example,
will geologic carbon sequestration be available and cost-effective? How would this determine the
choice of subsequent investme.nts?)., Deleted: Themost overarching
uncertainty identified by the scenario
analysis is thetechnical viability of
6.3 Target Technology with Gigaton-Scale Potential geologicsequestration-this mustbe a
highnear-term priority
In terms of expected future energy demand and emissions reduction goals~ ,th.e >s~~le of the , .1 Deleted: therequired levels of
mitigation
challenge calls for science and technology research that focuses not on incremental
improvements in technologies with limited potential for cost-effective, large-scale Deleted: sheer
commercialization, but on technologies or scientific explorations with the potential to deliver
100+ gigatons of mitigation over the coming century. This recommendation applies not just
across technology programs or technology areas, but also within programs or technology areas.
6.4 Leverage Investments via Technology Systems
To facilitate widespread deployment of advanced energy technologies, RD&D must focus on

Deleted: Draft CCTP Strategic Plan
technology systel~, including infrastructure-not just, component-technologies. ' -There should be RevSA.doc
strong communication across and within agencies to facilitate a systems focus. In addition, near-

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term research should include crosscutting "technology systems analysis" to explore the
characteristics and implications of future technology systems.
6.5 Support the Development of Alternative Fuel Systems
All three scenarios presume• some form of a transition to alternative fuels-most likely biofuels
---1', • • . . • • . • • • _ . . . •
'S" ••••••••••".• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • - • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Deleted: 10a
or hydrogen-in the transportation sector. Further, in a sequestration-heavy future, alternative Deleted: •
fuels may be required to carry energy from sequestered fossil energy plants to distributed Deleted: meeting ihe UNFCCC and
applications. President's long-term goalwill ultimately
require
6.6 Understand Technology Limits
Science and technology research is not a one-time endeavor: the results of today's research
largely shape the direction and effectiveness of future research. There is tremendous value to be
gained by resolving.uncertainties that lie at the heart of climate change technology research. In
particular, for many technologies, the potential for affordable gigaton-scale impacts is not well
understood or is the source of contentious debate. Issues of potential barriers and physical
limits-for example, limits on affordable uranium for nuclear fission or limits on water and land
constraints for biomass and other renewables--must receive serious attention if we are to
continually improve the targeting, and hence the effectiveness, of our science and technology
research.
7 AREAS IDENTIFIED FOR RESEARCH EMPHASIS
The CCTP Working Groups undertook a review of their respective technology areas, assessed , { Deleted: <sp>
the currentstate o(the Federa! R&D portfolio, anchilade recoin"menaatl'ons forhigh 'pnontY'
R&D and supporting strategic research. The reviews were further informed by the scenario
analyses. Preliminary findings were exposed to expert technical criticism at a series of
workshops held in the Fall of2003.
Given competing fiscal priorities, not all climate change technology R&D ~be funded at one Deleted: N
time. The long-term nature of the ~haileng'e'stig'gests'..,.'that'sus"tained "iilVi;stm'etit~- ri!' R&b may be . Deleted: is requiredto
required, at least for the next several decades. With the current level of Federal investment at Deleted: , to lbe coolrary,
about $1:6 billion per' year" 'augmented by 'in~eStments the' private sector'from other"rlations; Mer Deleted: indefinitely
there is a large opportuniJ 'foor tecnno'logy' an°(niinovatlCiil'-" , .'" ",."" ""0."""",.. '" 0 '" ,
'{ " Deleted: pcrhapsfor0100 years or

morc
A consideration for a sustained portfolio of R&D investments, then, is not so much about what Deleted: , sustained annuallyover
technologies could contribute to the near- or long-term goals, but what technologies and their many ycars
related technical issues should be explored in what sequence? Another consideration concerns Deleted: ~
feasibility and scale. What technologies could be expected to find plausible pathways to large-
scale commercialization? Do they afford sufficient potential to make a difference, if scaled to
terawatt or multi-gigaton levels? • "' ."," , '·0'
RevSA.doc

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Anotherconsideration is about impacts, both positiveand negative. If'a technology were . {Deleted: pro and con
deployedat levels that wouldmake a difference, what would be th~ ciinsequeiices 'i"rnpacts of 'or
the full-cycle of technology related required activities? If some technologies were found not able
to meet these criteria, then would it not be best to find out earlier rather than later, as other
strategieswould need to be developed and deployed? Finally, what are the technical barriers to
progressand how might these be addressed by supporting basic and strategic research?
7.1 FY 2003 and FY 2004 Initiatives
In addition to ongoing climate change technology R&D activities, the

t •••.•••••.••••••••.. - -.
Administration's FY2003
z.......... . . {Deleted: the
and FY2004 budgets identified a number of R&D priorities, includIng a numberof Presidential
initiatives... These
box. . priorities..and other high-priority
.. . R&D areas,
- .. - are
,.,.., shown
- in the accompanying
. .., Deleted: .
Deleted: • including a numberof
Presidentla! initiatives,
7.2 Future Areas for R&D Emphasis Current R&D Priorities in Support of the Deleted: s
Climate ChangeTechnology Portfolio
In addition to the current R&D baseline, and the (FY'03 and FY'04 Budgets)
R&D initiatives identified above, the portfc-o
Energy Efficiency
and scenario analyses, along with the working Solid State Lighting
group reviews, suggest areas that will be Zero Energy Buildings
important for meeting CCTP Strategic goals and
for future R&D emphasis. Hydrogen
FreedomCar
• Transportation Efficiency. Develop fuel cell President's Hydrogen Fuel Initianve
• Fuel Cell Technology
vehicle technologies and infrastructure using
• Hydrogen Technology
biofuelswith on-board reforming or pure H2 • . Nuclear-Based, Hydrogen Jnularlve... . -c
Deleted: (it is the essential platform for
'wlt'li on"':board' storage:" . . . . . ... . bigh efficiency carbon-neutral vehicles-«
Ul • Large-ScaleHydrogen
~~.. ., .. Production from
, . Fossil . ~
either
Deleted: •
• Buildings & Industry Efficiency. Emphasize Fuel Cell Systems
Advanced Heavy-Duty Vehicle Technologies Qeleted: based
technologies that enable cutting building and
industrialenergy consumption in halfby Hydrogen Infrastructure Safety Research and Deleted: -based
Development Deleted: ),
2050. Emphasize end-use electrification or
.
end-usesequestration Of' end~use H2 . Fossil and Sequestration
'"'
Fonnatted: Font: Italic
delivery with zero-emissions. Carbon SequestrationLeadershipForum Deleted: to the extentthe marketplace
will not create the technologies itself
Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships
• ,Ten:.f!!lr,ia:l selJ.ues~~a.tioit: ~o~us on FutureGen
- - -0' _. 'Capture and Sequestration 'Program Area
·f Deleted:
technologythat enables immediate
deployment. Monitoring and accounting Nuclear
systems. Basic science that yields an Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative
immediateresolution on the questions of Nuclear Power Generation IV Deleted: the
permanenceof storage and capacity..Q.f ,. . 'NuC"Iear Power ion)"················· . Deleted: I
reservoirs. .. ,::. o . "Ntic1e"ar En'ergY Researcn Iriitiative Deleted: DraftCCTP Strategic Plan
ITER (Fusion Energy) RevSA.doc
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• OtherGases. TED (Methane, Nitrous Oxide)
Wind. Low wind speed, high efficiency turbines, in order to expand available resources and
deployment capacity" . ( Deleted: pplicabilil)
SolarPower. Basic research into new PV materials, concepts, and production methods with
a goal of significant cost reduction., . { Deleted: •
• Geologic sequestration. Focus on science-based, engineering-scale projects. Emphasize

high capacity geologic formations (i.e., deep saline and deep unmineable coal seams rather
than niche EOR sequestration).
I. Carbon capture. Focus on technologies to extract or capture carbon dioxide from a diversity
of flue gas streams (industrial and powerplants).
• Advancedfossil technology. Emphasize coal-to-power and coal-to-hydrogen with

substantially higher efficiencies.
• Nuclear. Sustain U.S. nuclear capacity through life-extension technology. Develop

competitive next generation reactor design.
I. Biomass, Develop next generation bio-fuels and bio-power technology (begin developing
complements to conventional bio-ethanol; bio-products are niche technology).
• Ocean sequestration. Improve our scientific understanding of ocean sequestration. Focus

on science that supports a determination of its potential viability.
• Monitoring and Measurement. TBD (Space-Based Earth Observation Summit, Regional,

Local, Soils)
7.3 Supporting Strategic Research
For complex problems that span a century time frame and beyond, solutions require that science
and technology work together. Knowledge is required to design and develop the technological
solutions and to provide an intellectual framework to assess the long-term impacts of deployment
on the massive scales necessary. Universities and national laboratories, with their extraordinary
capabilities for discovery and problem solving, are particularly well positioned to conduct basic
research in these areas. Numerous recent revolutionary advances promise critical contributions to
meeting the global energy challenge.
The following are broad areas of suppoQ:i!!g .~~!l.t.~~<? ~~_~~.~~~.h!. jl). a~d!~91) ..t9 .~h.e.!'M._eljn.e: ~.f. . Deleted: Dr.lfl CCTP Strategic Plan
RevSA.doc
ongoing basic research, identified as important to the technical progress of the above-mentioned
applied technology R&D areas, and to their deployment.

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• Biotechnology. Biotechnology embodies a set of basic research disciplines that investigates

the underlying biological processes of plants and microorganisms. The recent revolution in
genomics and ensuing technologies has dramatically increased our ability: to discover,
engineer, and develop micro-organisms and enzymes that can be used to process biomass to
fuels and chemicals; to gain a better understanding of the functional genomics of high-
potential biomass crops; to increase yields and design crops that increase separation and
conversion efficiency for fuels, chemicals and other bioproducts; and to enhance the
capabilities ofbiosystems for carbon sequestration.
• Physical Sciences. Physical sciences include the chemical sciences, materials sciences,
physics, geosciences, and nanosciences. Nanoscale science, for example, cuts across and
underpins many other sciences, affording great potential for innovation in energy storage,
fuel cells, biomimetics, tribology, and other areas. Photochemical processes can potentially
produce hydrogen. Photo-conversion technologies are needed that could lead to direct and
potentially efficient production of fuels, materials, and chemicals, as well as electrical power.
Studies of catalysts, separation methods, and combustion processes underlie many potentially
useful technologies. Progress continues in fusion energy and the next large-scale step would
be to explore the behavior of"buming plasmas," self-heated by the ongoing fusion process.
• Computational Sciences. Many recent advances in science and technology have been made
possible by the rapid increase in the power of computers. Improvements in computational
sciences are needed for: modeling combustion; improved software and controls for advanced
electric power grids; advanced models for evaluation of C02 in ocean environments and
understanding of the ocean biological pump; improved models of photovoltaic and other
materials; improved models of the aerodynamics of wind turbines and other fluid dynamics
processes; computer assisted simulations of proposed advanced components and energy
systems; software expert systems and intelIigent agents; and analysis of urban/suburban land
processes and parameters that affect and contribute to the carbon cycle. Modeling and
simulation are critical to rapidly engineering new properties and phenomena into useful
processes and products.
• Environmental Sciences. Environmental science needs include research into integrated

ecological systems, as well as relationships among GHGs with the physical aspects of the COmment: Theseseemto be a little fer
environment. Research is needed to understand the behavior of large-scale injections of C02 offlnlck li'omthocoreCCfP mission.
into reservoirs, and for storage of carbon in soils, terrestrial biomass, and oceans. Non- , Deleted: The impacuof the built
environment on man-made and natural
climate environmental impacts must be identified and understood. Development of sensors ecosystemsa", neededforinforming
and computational models that allow measuring, monitoring, and verification of future landusc planning. Better
understandingis ",quin:dof the nature of
environmental carbon flows are needed to provide consistent pictures of the evolution of indoorair quality,its interrelationship
climate change and the effectiveness of efforts to reduce anthropogenic forcing. 1., "".,'.'" ...:f with otherbuildings-related
environmentalfactors, and its effects on
[End of Front Piece) buman productivity andhealth,in order
T .• .
to confideatlypursuezero-emissions
buildings.,
Deleted: Draft eCTP StrategicPlan
Rev5A.doc
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8 WORKING GROUP REPORTS
Note: Following the Front Piece, there will appear 28 reports, 4-6 pages apiece, one for each
major technology area (e.g., hydrogen, geologic sequestration, nuclearfission, etc.) identified
earlier under the Working Group structure (page 11). Each report will summarize the results of
the Working Groups' portfolio reviews and provide more detail, in more depth, than is possible
in the Front Piece, Each report will follow a commonly formatted series ofsubject areas. These
areas include the following:
T ••• •
Deleted: D12ft eCTPStrategic Plan
RevSA.doc

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I. Vision Statement (e.g.Jar Hydrogen, Nuclear, Transportation)

a. Characterization 0/a UNFCCC "End-State"
b. Role/or Technology
c. Potential Contribution
2. Key Technologies
a. Plausible Pathways to Attainment (Transitions)
b. Key Technologies Identified (Call-out box; Mention in Text)
c. Links to Technology Profiles
3. High-Priority R&D
a. Areas 0/R&D Emphasis (Rationale)
b. Supporting R&D Plans or "Roadmaps"
c. Current and Proposed R&D (Consistent w/Budget)
d. Selected Highlights/or FY05-09
4. Collaborations (Selected, not Exhaustive)
a. Partnerships with Industry
b. Partnerships with International Entities
c. Partnerships with Stakeholders
5. Technology Transfer and Commercial Adoption
6. Longer- Term R&D (Beyond Five- Year R&D Plan)
a. Areas ofPotential Interest Beyond FY05-09
b. Very Long-Term R&D
7. Supporting Basic Research
a. Key Barriers to Technology Progress
b. Promising Areas Identified for Basic Research
Deleted: DraftCCTP StratesicPIan

1'••••••
RevSA,doc

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At a total of200 pages, the these reports will constitute the main body ofthe eeTP Strategic
Plan, Each report will reference.for those seekingfurther detail. a set of 100 Key Technology
Profiles. supporting papers, and R&D program plans, posted on the eeTP WebSite,
Deleted: DraftCCTP StrategicPlan

T ••• ••
RevSA.doc

22
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Table of Contents for the Working Group Reports Section •I· {Fonnatted: Levell
8.1 Energy Production

8.1./ Hydrogen
8.1.2 Renewablefuels
8.1.3 Low Carbon Fuels
8.1.4 Renewable Power
8.1.5 Nuclear Fission Power
8.1.6 Nuclear Fusion Power
8.1.7 Low Emissions Fossil-Based Power
8.1.8 Electric Grid and Infrastructure (i.e. CCT? Enabling Elements)
8.2 Energy Efficiency

8.2./ Transportation
8.2.2 Buildings
8.2.3 Industry:
8.3 Sequestration
8.3./ Geologic
8.3.2 Terrestrial
8.3.3 Ocean
8.3.4 Product/Materials
8.4 Other Gases

8.4./ Energy & Waste' - Methane
8.4.2 Agriculture - Methane and Other Gases
8.4.3 High GWP Gases
8.4.4 Nitrous Oxide
8.4.5 Ozone Precursors & Black Carbon
8.5 Measuring and Monitoring
8.6 Basic Research
T. .._
RevSA.doc

23
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Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5A.doc
"As we analyze the possibilities, we will be guided by several basic principles.
Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal ofstabilizing
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Our actions should be
measured as we learn morefrom science and build on it,.. We will act, learn,
and act again, adjusting our approaches as science advances and technology
evolves. Our Administration will be creative. "
President George W. Bush, June 11,
2001
Page 2: (3] Deleted HANNEGAN_B 8/29/03 3:34 PM

As one of the world's top technology developers, t
Page 2: [4] Deleted HANNEGAN_B 8/29/033:36 PM
y, and to R&D for many other climate change related and environmental technologies.
intention to pursue approaches consistent with the goal of
, signed by President George Herbert Walker Bush, and ratified by the United States
Senate in 1992, that is, to achieve
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5A.doc
The major dynamic shaping each of the CCTP scenarios is a required decline in
greenhouse gas intensity, which ultimately results in the stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations, while global energy consumption is simultaneously increasing.
Consequently, all the scenarios would reverse a century-long trend of increased energy
consumption coupled with increased greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this bold
reversal, global greenhouse emissions must peak, begin to decline, and ultimately reach
"net zero" or relatively inconsequential levels. Consistent with the UNFCCC goal, this
must also be achieved while global economic development proceeds.
To illustrate the scale of challenge, consider that in 2000, world energy consumption was
approximately 400 exajoules. Fossil fuels provide over three-fourths of this. Because
energy from fossil fuels is the largest source of anthropogenic C02, a long-term decline
in greenhouse gas emissions that results in "net zero" emissions cannot realistically occur
absent an eventual reduction in freely-vented C02 emissions from fossil fuels. The pace
and extent of the reduction depends upon a number of variables, including the mix of
fossil fuel types being consumed, the success at abating other greenhouse gases beyond
CO2, the extent to which terrestrial sequestration is successful, and other factors.
In addition, consider that in order to support continued global economic growth, as well
as meet a number of other important energy-dependent challenges, most energy analysts
expect global energy consumption to rise significantly throughout the century. For
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DRAFT DRAFT ORAFT
DRAFT
STRATEGIC PLAN
CLIMATE CHANGE TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM
[Preliminary Concepts for the Front Piece]
[Planned/or release as a draft/or public comment in October 2003, in

conjunction with a series oftechnical workshops to be held in the Fall 2003;
andfor final publication in April 2004, in support ofthe FY 2005 Budget]
DRAFT
August 15, 2003
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5.wpd August 15,2003--
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·.
l.m"'LFT DR.\FT DR·;FT
Strategic Plan
Climate Change Technology Program
Overview (Front Piece)
"America's the leader in technology and innovation. We all believe technology offers great
promise to significantly reduce emissions. "
President George W. Bush, June 11, 2001
1 OVERVIEW
1.1 Sustainable 21'1 Century World Economic Development
Solutions to many of the critical challenges facing 21 st Century civilization, including water,
food production, preserving the environment, improving sanitation and human health,
eliminating poverty, sustaining economic growth and expanding opportunities for less developed
regions, are made more possible by affordable, reliable and secure energy. Energy is not just the
handmaiden of prosperity, but a key enabler for technical progress. An energy-rich global
community can better pursue lasting and equitable solutions.
Forecasts of long-term energy demand suggest multi-fold increases in world energy consumption
during the 21 51 Century, driven by expanding population and economic development. Ifworld
gross domestic product (GDP) were to grow at but a modest rate of one percent per year for the
next 100 years, assuming current trends in technology improvement and changing energy-use
patterns, energy demand would be expected to nearly triple by the end of the Century. Ifworld
GDP were to grow, instead, at a rate of two percent per year, which would be more in line with
long-run trends, world energy demand would.likely increase to more than seven-fold that of
current levels. Stnictural changes in economic activity and accelerated energy-efficiency
improvement may slow, but will not eliminate these growth trends. Energy demand in the
particular form of electricity, a strongly productive and versatile energy carrier, is expected to
grow much faster than energy use in general.
Commercial energy supply today is closely tied to the combustion of fossil fuels, namely, coal,
oil and natural gas. Long-term forecasts of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (C02) to
the Earth's atmosphere, arising primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels, expect emissions
to rise in accord with energy demand. The challenge facing those who seek to slow the growth
in C02 emissions, as well as the emissions of other greenbouse gases, or eventually to reduce
such emissions to low levels, is to imagine what is possible and explore the best ways to
proceed.
1.2 Opportunities for Innovation and Technology
Although the dual challenge of growing energy supply and reducing emissions may seem
daunting, three factors provide some basis for optimism. First, it is a long-term challenge,
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5.wpd August 15,2003 -- Page 1 of 22
CEQ 013591
·,
requiring sustained leadership for decades. Its long-term nature allows the process of innovation
and technology advancement, accelerated by investments in research and development (R&D),
to playa key role in influencing the future.
Second, most of the national and global energy infrastructure required by the end of the Century
to support the envisioned levels of growth does not exist today. The technologies used as the
foundation for building this infrastructure, to be built over the coming decades and throughout
the rest of the Century, for better or worse, will profoundly shape global economic growth and,
importantly, the level at which society continues to emit greenhouse gases. What technologies
the global marketplace chooses as the foundation for this future will have far more effect on
greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere in the future, than how we operate the
energy infrastructure of today. These technologies can be significantly influenced by innovation
and technology leadership.
Third, the modern world has a long record of technological achievement on a grand scale, from
agricultural production to national security, from exploration of space to the curing of dreaded r~
diseases. This record of invention and progress provides a basis for~timism with regards V
to the long-term challenge for climate change. Similarly focused and sustained technology R&D
efforts can be expected to produce similar results over time, which could enable the world to .
reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, contributing to the United ~lfttions' goal of ~ u~~
stabilizing atmospluwk concentratioas of greenhouse gases at aeeeptable levels. ® fv~
r-~~
1.3 Leadership Role for the United States
"As we analyze the possibilities, we will be guided by several basic principles. Our
~~
~.
approach must be consistent with the long-term goal ofstabilizing greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere. Our actions should be measured as we learn more
Jrom science and build on it ... We will act, learn, and act again, adjusting our
approaches as science advances and technology evolves. Our Administration will be
creative. "
President George W. Bush, June 11,2001
As one of the world's top technology developers, the United States faces a unique opportunity to
be a leader in the re-invention of the global energy system. The world will need~deeQ, demand
the development and~deployment of a new generation of clean energy
technologies that draw upon the world's diverse and abundant energy resources. The Nation has
an opportunity to create the technology for a cleaner and more efficient electricity industry that
achieves low or near net-zero emissions. The Nation has an opportunity to revolutionize the
transportation sector through the creation of a new generation of vehicles that uses advanced,
clean fuels. The Nation has an opportunity to revolutionize the way in which it consumes energy
in its homes and businesses. Making wise choices now in the development of advanced energy
technologies will help ensure ~dramati9 gains in economic development~d
simultaneously reduce the potential imparon the environment. Seizing these opportunities,
lo4-~
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DHAFr DK-\FT DR..J,FT
however, will not be easy. It will require a bold new approach to R&D for energy technology,
and to R&D for many other climate change related and environmental technologies.
On June 11,2001, the President reaffirmed the United States' intention to pursue approaches
consistent with the goal of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), signed by President George Herbert Walker Bush, and ratified by the United States
Senate in 1992, that is, to achieve:
" .... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in Earth's atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
The President committed the Federal Government to pursue a broad range of strategies to reduce ~
growth of greenhouse gas emissions. He also launched a pair of initiatives, one on climate
change science, and another on climate change technology development, that together embody
the longer-term components of his overall policy approach to this 10 em.
lo~-~
On February 14, 2002, the President established a Cabinet-level ommr ee on Climate Change
Science and Technology Integration (CCCSTI) to galvanize Federal leadership in this area. The
CCCSTI is charged with developing innovative approaches, in accordance with a number of
basic principles. These approaches should: (1) be consistent with the long-term goal of
stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere (2) be measured, as we learn more
from science and build, on it; (3) be flexible to adjust to new information and take advantage of
new technology; (4) ensure continued economic growth an prosperity; (5) pursue market-based
incentives and spur technological innovation; and (6) be ba ed on global participation, including
developing countries. The Committee is chartered to provi e recommendations to the President
on matters concerning climate change science and techno gy; address related Federal R&D
funding issues; and coordinate with the Office of Mana ment and Budget on implementing its
recommendations. aJ-Ci.. lev-e(.1Nk vJo....1..:L~ve.rJ- ~~
Under the auspices of the CCCSTI, there are two multi-agency, operating elements: Ww~v-A-t\...;
~~~
The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) S'1S~
The Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)
1.4 Climate Change Science Program
In order to inform, guide and pace overall strategy, the Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP) conducts research on the Earth'"t;'11ate and natural systems, and on the effects of
related human activity. The CCSP aims to advance understanding of key phenomena and reduce
scientific uncertainty. It hopes to illuminate the causes and effects of climate change, and meet
the information needs of decision-makers. The CCSP's Strategic Plan was issued on July 24,
2003.
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5.wpd August 15,2003·- Page 3 of 22
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1.5 Climate Change Technology Program
The Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) is the technology counterpart to the CCSP.
Both CCSP and CCTP are designed as science and technology complements, working together.
The CCTP coordinates research across ten Federal R&D agencies. The CCTP is chartered to
carry out the following activities: (a) review the Federal climate change technology R&D
portfolio; (b) conduct economic and technical analysis of options in the climate context (e.g.,
scenario and limits analysis); (c) make recommendations on the portfolio; and (d) coordinate
communication among and within agencies.
The CCTP aims to accelerate the development of key technology options believed to be
important, ultimately, to achieving the UNFCCC goal. The CCTP strives, through its R&b
programs, to create or improve key technologies, enhance their performance and reduce their
cost. If successful, such technologies, it is hoped, will eventually provide the means for a
smooth transition tOfew energy systems that emit little or no greenhouse gases.
~l'"~ <!fh'~ o(
Although the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) Strategic Plan is a plan for Federal
leadership in a U.S. technology R&D program, it is set within a global context and seeks broad
partnerships with others. At its core, the Plan embraces economic development as the principal
means by which the world's population will improve its condition, including the creation of
capital needed for investment in improved energy infrastructure. The Plan presents a roadmap
for R&D to meet the critical challenges of the 21 st Century in a methodical way.
The Strategic Plan is not a policy document. Nor is it policy dependent. Rather, it explores the
potential roles for innovation and technology. It sets forth for public comment and input, in an
open and transparent process, a plan for Federal leadership of a long-term, sustained investment
in a portfolio of research and development actiyities. It is aimed at spurring and coordinating
innovation, expanding technical options, testing and demonstrating feasibility and performance,
and reducing costs. Accordingly, the Strategic Plan lays out a long-term vision, goals and
approaches to do this. The CCTP provides a means and a forum to effect U.S. leadership in this
area, and encourage the formation of partnerships with others, domestically and internationally.
1.6 Key Technical Considerations
The UNFCCC goal of stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the Earth's
atmospherecat aB)' level witliirra range of plaUSible scenarios (e.g., i5V pplIl, 6050 ppm, 550 ppm,
450 l'13m;1.is a significant long-term challenge. To achieve this goal, several key technical
considerations would have to be accommodated. These include the following:
~N'i..;~ CL~'"'"'::J
CO 2 in the atmosphere persists for GPturies or lollgeP. Stabilizing GHG concentrations in
the Earth's atmosphere implies that net global emissions of GHGs--particularly carbon-
dioxide (C02) , the most important of the global warming gases - must eventually peak,
CEQ 013594
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begin a long-term decline, and ultimately approach levels that are very low or nearly net-
zero. .
eco~
To effect a seamles~Jransition to new energy systems, ultimately with nearly net-zero'
carbon emissions, cost, performance, and commercial and public acceptance of future
technologies must improve significantly.
Scientific uncertainty about the

precise nature of the UNFCCC goal How Big is a Gigaton?
renders uncertain the timing and pace Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton/year a/Carbon Mitigation
of actions required. It is clear that Utilizing Today's Technologies
Coal Plants
creating an energy system with net- Replace 1,000conventional 500·MW plantswith "zero-
zero carbon emissions may require emission" power plants
more than a century to achieve. It is Geologic Sequestration
Install 3,500 Repositories, at I Mt of COl per year each
also clear that interim improvements Nuclear ~
will b.$Heetietfduring this Century. • BUil~W plants (in lieu of unsequestered coal)
p'-N>--.ecl ~ "-C'-" C'W'f\,;,~~ Efficiency
Deploy I billion cars at 40 mpg insteadof20 mpg
Stabilization of GHG concentrations Wind
implies that the world's energy Install 750 x current U.S. wind generation (in lieu of
producing and consuming sectors and unsequestered coal)
Solar PV
the existing economic infrastructure Install 4,500 x current U.S. solar generation (in lieu of
ml§fdopt advanced new GHG-free2 unsequestered coal)
teclll:iologies as capital assets are Biomass fuels from plantations
Convert an area >7.5X the size oflowa's farmland to
replaced or expanded. All nations biomass
must participate, recognizing that tt-is- Storage In new forest
is tHeir ~sQIIomic int~re8t for this Convert an area >30X the size oflowa's farmland (0
biomass
transformation to occur with For carbon stabtlizatiam etween 1000 and 2500 gigatons
minimum economic disruption. 0IC02 must be mitigat~bQIIJ' dllriJ:Jg (kg? I" Gel'!::!
The sheer seale ofplOjecled global
fimergy demands leqttires that prasp€lctive €lsergy systems-and sowces be capable of
sHbstantial impacts iB arder ta jtlstify the IlH'g@ iev~stmeHts reEItlil cd lOWdtd meeLmg the the-
goals. A basic premise of this Strategic Plan is that prospective energy or other technology
systems must be able to contribute, in cost-effective ways, substantial amounts of mitigation
effects, that is, 25 to I 00+ gigatons or more, integrated over the 21 51 Century, in ordet for
them to be considered serious components ofa plaasihl.e saltltion; Here, scale does matter.
1.~}J.l~
I "Net-zero" is a term of convenience indicating low or near-zero greenhouse gas emissions, when the full cycle is
taken into consideration. Due to losses in the system, no fuel or process can be truly "net-zero".
l "OHO.Free" is term of convenience, meant to refer to a state or condition where the net emissions of greenhouse
gases (OHOs) from the production or use of energy, including its total fuel cycle, the operation of other ancillary
activities, production processes, or consumption, may be considered to be very low or near zero, compared to typical
technologies or processes in use today.
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5.wpd August 15,2003·· Page 5 of 22
CEQ 013595
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2 MISSION, GOALS AND APPROACHES
Within the context of the u.s.-ratified~ited Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change, the CCTP Strategic Plan sets forth a vision and mission, replete with specific goals and
approaches, based on the principles set forth by the President. The CCTP's vision, that is, the
desired long-term outcome ofthe program, is the attainment on a global scale of a technological
capability that will enable humanity to meet the climate change challenges of the 21'l Century.
CCTP's mission, that is, the envisioned role for the CCTP, is to stimulate the science and
technology enterprise of the United States, through coordinated Federal leadership of its own
R&D programs, and i~ershi~ with others, to achieve its vision through the accelerated
development of new, Bali al aft~ slistaiflel31e cnc~ OH@ducingtechnologies.
2.1 Strategic Goals ~~;:~~+:W~r L]

Under the CCTP Strategic Plan, the CCTP agencies will pursue, as appropriate to their specific
agency missions, technology RD&D, aligned with the following four CCTP goals:
Goal #1: Transform Energy End-use, by Improving Efficiency' a.ntfFuel-use SWitching~ Qu.t~_
') .J'\Ie.l~.
GHG-Free Infrastructure and Equipment. Highly efficient and well-matched .
r..
equipment can significantly reduce OHO emissions, avoid other lcinQs-of environmental ~ - Lt-~
emissions, and reduce equipment life-cycle costs for delivering the desired products and
services.
Transition Technologies. Transition technologies are technologies that are not "OHO-
free", but capable of achieving significant reductions of OHO emissions in the near-
and mid-terms by significantly improving or displacing higher OHO-emitting
technologies in use today.
Enabling Technologies. Enabling technologies contribute indirectly to the reduction of

OHO emissions by making possible the development and use of other important
technologies. A reliable, modernized electricity grid, for example, is seen as an
essential step enabling the deployment of more advanced end-use and distributed
energy resources needed for reducing OHO emissions.
Goal #2: Transform Energy Supply,

L.ov-'~ -
GHG-~ Ele ricity. Electricity will likely be a premier energy carrier ofany future
economy.
(.,ov-UV -
GHG..fiffe. Fuels. It is expected that any future economy will have a continuing need
for portable, storable fuels for heat, power, transport and mobility.
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DHAFT DRAFT DRAfT
Goal #3: Capture and Sequester C02J by Direct and Indirect Methods.
co] Capture and Sequestration. Innovative means for gaseous carbon-dioxide capture
from various single-point sources, both energy and non-energy sources, and directly
from the atmosphere, combined with its permanent sequestration - meaning CO 2
storage or conversion to beneficial use without net GHO emissions to the atmosphere -
if successful, could provide an important and pivotal technological advance.
• ~;~edstocks and Materials. The economic activities of any future economy,

including those of heavy industry, mining, manufacturing, agriculture and construction,
will require feedstocks and other material inputs to production. The process for making
cement, for example, is a target for improvement.
Goal #4: Mitigate the Contributions to Global Warming afGHGs Other than C02J and of
Non-EnerfJY ~ource$ srco,
~t-.~ fW"~ f~
Greenhouse Gases Other Than CO]. Anthropogenic emissions oftbe many greenhouse
• 4
gases other than CO 2, including methane, nitrous oxide, and several high-global
warm~g potential (OWP) gases, can cOI;tribute to global.ww:ming in significant ways} ~ o-!-
~ ~ c.o~!-~ e;j~..e. ,.,....~J~ ~~ ...
-tf..a., ~- -/.:. ,........k-~.
2.2 Approaches
The following approaches are envisioned to be employed by the CCTP to achieve the above-
stated goals:
Strengthen Climate Change Technology R&D

Strengthen Supporting Basic Research and Universities and National Laboratories
Enhance Opportunities for Partnerships with Businesses, States and Others
Increase International Cooperation on Related Science and Technology
Support Cutting-Edge Demonstrations
Improve the Means for Measurement, Monitoring and Verification
Support Exploratory Research of Novel Concepts
2.2.1 Strengthen Climate Change Technology R&D
Regarding the current state of U.S. climate change technology R&D, the Federal Government is
engaged in a wide range of ongoing research activities that directly or indirectly contribute to the ~-~
goal of stabilizing GHO concentrations. TIll" breadth and depth of this portfolio is evidenced, in
part, by the Federal expenditures, amounting to $1.6 billion per year in related technology R&D.
These investments are summarized in the technology sections of the Strategic Plan, and in more
detail in nearly lOa Key Technology Profiles, accessible separately at http://www.cetp.gov.
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5.wpd August 15, 2003 -- Page 7 of 22
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"
In order to strengthen the current state ofthe

U.S. climate change technology R&D, the "Evaluate the current state of u.s. climate
eeTP will seek input and work with others to change technology R&D and make
review the current Federal R&D portfolio, vis recommendations for improvements."
a vis the stated program goals. The CeTP
will make periodic recommendations to the
eeeST! to strengthen the focus of and support for climate change technology R&D to match the
mix and level of R&D investment required by the nature and size of the technical challenge.
2.2.2 Strengthen Basic Research at Universities and National Laboratories
Underlying the applied R&D for tc~hnology

"Provide guidance on strengthening basic
development is supporting basic research.
research at universities and national
The dual challenges of addressing global
laboratories, including the development of
climate change an energy
the advanced mitigation technologies that
nee ed to meet future deman are
offer the greatest promisefor low-cost
easily among the largest and most complex
endeavors in human history. Success will t:.~l- reductions ofgreenhouse gas emissions." ..J
require discoveries and innovations well

beyond what today's science and technology can offer. Science must not just inform decisions,
but provide the knowledge foundation on which new technologies are built. The CeTP
framework will strengthen the basic research enterprise in the national laboratories and academia
so that they will be better prepared to find solutions and create new opportunities. A strong and
creative science program is necessary in several arenas:
~~
• Fundamental discoCeries can reveal new properties and phenomena that can be applied to
energy and carboJ~robloffis. These can include breakthroughs in our understanding of
biological functions, properties and phenomena of nanomaterials and structures, computing
architectures and methods, plasma science, and many more that currently are on the horizon.
Understanding how large and complex systems function requires the ability to perform
predictive modeling and simulations, which incorporate a wide range of scenarios,
assumptions, and time and length scales. Science-based predictions can bring together
fundamental experimentation, management oflarge and complex data sets, and modeling
and computational simulations to acceleratet9ticallY discovery and reduce the time and
cost of bringing new innovations to the mar etpl ceo
1M! ~
Developing new ~e eh~echnologies and systems requires an abundance of
intellectual talent well versed in the concepts and technologies of modem science -
workforce development and education is therefore a key role for the science enterprise.1!rey-
must also be awtlFe aChe"".. bt:lsmesses ornate and make decisions to eBSHfB that the
technologies they create tY0 adopted in the marketplace.
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"
2.2.3 Enhance Opportunities for Partnerships
with regard to the development and adoption

of climate change technologies, Federal "Develop opportunities to enhance private-
research is but one element of the overall public partnerships in applied R&D to
approach. Engagement in this process by expedite innovative and cost-effective
private entities, including business, industry, approaches to reduce greenhouse gas
agriculture, construction and other sectors of emissions."
the U.S. economy, as well as by non-Federal
governmental entities, such as the States, and
non-governmental organizations, is essential in order to focus scarce R&D investments wisely
and expedite innovative and cost-effective approaches to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Partnering facilitates the transfer of technology to the marketplace, once the technology R&D is
completed. Partnering can also help guide and improve the productivity of Federal research.
Private partners also benefit, as those who are engaged in Federal R&D gain rights to intellectual
property, which can help motivate further investment in the commercialization of technology.
Today, partnering is a common mode of operation in most Federal R&D programs, but this can
be improved. Opportunities exist for private participation in virtually every aspect of Federal
R&D. With respect to climate change technology R&D, the CCTP seeks to expand these
opportunities, in R&D planning, program execution, and technology demonstrations.
2.2.4 Increase International Cooperation
Given the global nature of the challenge, and in recognition of the contributions being made by
others abroad, the CCTP seeks to engage, government to government, other nations in large-
scale cooperative technology research initiatives. Such cooperation can prove to be important-if"?"
_not Gssellt~to the success of U.S. technology development initiatives, In certain areas of
climate change technology R&D, such as advanced wind turbine design and fusion energy
research, many advanced technical capabilities reside abroad, as well as in the United States.
The technology development can benefit from international cooperation, through the leveraging
of resources, partitioning of research activities addressing large-scale and multi-faceted complex
problems, and sharing of results and knowledge created. Under the auspices of the Cabinet-level
CCCSTI, the CCTP has contributed to several recent examples of this approach, including the
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (23 countries), the Nuclear Energy Generation IV .IJ
Initiative (9 countries); and the Internat'r.v.l Hydrogen Initiative (61 countries). a)s 0 l -r~r--...)
L 1v~..:,.."",
2.2.5 Support Cutting-Edge Technology Demonstrations '--_~_'(!A,. ~ '-(JlAJ'. .
Demonstrations of cutting-edge climate change technologies are an important aspect of the goal
of advancing climate change technologies. they can help fill the gap between the R&D phase of
CEQ 013599
DRAFT HRAFT DRAFT
a technology development project, where a concept may have been proven in principle or shown
to work in the laboratory, but is still uncertain, and the commercialization phase, where
substantial investment, motivated by clear and expected financial returns is required.
Technology demonstrations afford unique

opportunities to reduce uncertainty by "Make recommendations for funding
making more known the parameters of a demonstration projects for cutting-edge
technology's cost and operational technologies."
performance and by pointing to areas
needing further improvement or cost
reduction. Technology demonstrations also evidence Federal leadership in developing a
technology, which can have important influence on the decisions of others.
2.2.6 Improve the Means for Measurement, Monitoring and Verification

-
Improved technologies for measuring and
monitoring gross and net greenhouse gas "Develop improved technologies for
emissions and concentrations are important to measuring and monitoring gross and net
the motivation and achievement of eHtna're greenhouse gas emissions."
change-reWed technology development and
adoption. Such technologies are needed to
inform, through science, the technology development and deployment plans and strategies, as
well as to verify attainment of emissions reductions.
A wide array of GHG sensors, measurement platforms, monitoring and inventorying systems,
and inference methods are needed to meet basic measurement needs. Sensors and systems need
to be designed within a holistic and hierarchal architecture to calibrate and verify emissions,
atmospheric concentrations, stored carbon sinks, and from global-scale perspectives, cascading
down to national, regional, and local areas, and to individual point sources. Additionally, field
experience is required to help shape the path for future technology development.
~~'~
The technological S6MietIs..;=equired over the next century and beyond are complex, involving
numerous subsystems and processes, with long time frames and potential phenomena that must
be understood. Emerging capabilities for the modeling, simulation, and prediction of complex
integrated systems, involving experiments, analysis of large complex data sets, modeling, and
computational simulation will be invaluable in expeditiously determining the potential viability
of these systems. Investments in integrated assessment of engineered systems can dramatically
shorten the technology cycle and reduce life-cycle costs.
2.2.7 Support Exploratory Research of Novel Concepts
Apart from the existing applied R&D and basic research programs, there are believed to be a
number of areas that are innovative, novel, cross-cutting or integrative in concept to warrant
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further interest. However, many do not seem to fit easily into the existing frameworks of Federal
R&D funding or organizational hierarchies. These are areas where exploratory research of novel
concepts, pursued along unconventional lines
of inquiry, might add significant value or
uniquely complement an otherwise robust TECHNOLOGY WORKlNG GROUPS
Federal technology R&D program.
Energy Production - DOE Lead
Hydrogen
3 STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS Renewable fuels
Low Carbon Fuels
The CCTP Strategic Plan is a flexible Renewable Power
Nuclear Fission Power
roadmap for responding to future discoveries
Nuclear Fusion Power
and policy changes, which may--indeed are Low Emissions Fossil-Based Power
likely too-arise from insights developed under Electric Grid and Infrastructure (i.e, CCTP
the CCSP and during eeTP R&D. It is Enabling Elements)
designed to provide "what" and "when"
Energy Efficiency - DOE Lead
flexibility to policy-makers within a strategic Transportation
framework. On-going evaluation of the Buildings
eeTP R&D portfolio will be conducted so Industry:
that resources may be channeled to the most Low GHG and Efficient Processes
productive and promising areas. The GHGCapture
Low or Net-Zero GHG Materials
Technology Working Groups (see box) Low or Net-Zero GHG Feedstocks
describes the current R&D priorities in
support of CCTP. Sequestration - USDA Lead
Geologic
Federal support and leadership in basic and Terrestrial
Ocean
applied R&D is but one part of the overall ProductlMaterials
effort needed to develop and commercialize
climate change technologies. The active Other Gases - EPA Lead
participation of industries and businesses also Energy & Waste· Methane
Agric. Methane and Other Gases
is essential, not only to accelerate technology
High GWP Gases
development, but also to give government Nitrous Oxide
policy-makers an appreciation of the business Ozone Precursors & Black Carbon
risks associated with commercializing new
technologies. So too is the need to work Measuring and Monitoring - NASA/NOAA Lead
Sensors and Platforms
internationally to speed development and
Global Monitoring
diffusion of climate change technologies, Monitoring Area Sources
especially in developing countries, where Inventory Methods
most of the growth in GHG emissions is
expected in the future. Basic Research - DOE Lead
Biotechnology
Physical Sciences
The process for developing and updating the Computational Sciences
CCTP Strategic Plan, apart from the broad- Environmental Sciences
Draft CeTP Strategic Plan RevS. wpd August 15,2003 -- Page 11 of 22
CEQ 013601
Of{:\FT DR.\FT iJf{AFY
based expert reviews, workshops and public input, employs two complementary analytical tools:
Portfolio Analysis
Scenario Analysis
4 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
R&D portfolio analysis can be accomplished in a variety of ways. Most attempt to assess the
elements of the portfolio with respect to strategic goals and examine the robustness of the
portfolio with respect to relevance, potential contributions and likelihood of success. Under the
CCTP, six interagency working groups reviewed and evaluated the Federal climate change
technology R&D portfolio and conducted the portfolio analyses. Each focused on a particular
aspect of the climate change technology challenge, such as geologic sequestration, renewable
power, hydrogen. The working groups gathered other input from ongoing R&D planning
processes and held technical workshops, inviting experts from universities, industry, national
laboratories, non-governmental organizations, and others to examine and critique ongoing work.
The working groups conducted technology portfolio analyses. Among their tasks were to
develop a long-term vision, characterizing the role, desired end-state and contribution for their
technology area. They identified: key technologies and developed profiles, describing current
and priority R&D areas; collaborative activities with industry and international stakeholders;
technology transfer and commercialization activities; and supporting basic research needs
technological progress. The results are presented in the body of this Strategic Plan (Section 8).
5 SCENARIO ANALYSES
Designing a technology portfolio, in light of the uncertainties surrounding population growth,

future energy intensity, pathways to global economic development, and climate science itself,
requires an exploration of a range of possible futures Scenario analysis was used as an important
component of this exploration, as it provides insights into potential technological transitions, ~
timelines, and uncertainties. These insights can guide today's investments in climate technology WING""'
R&D. gJ- ~(~~
The major dynamic shaping each of the CCTP scenarios is a required decline in greenhtuse gas ~~
intensity, which ultimately results in the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentratio~while ~~
global energy consumption is simultaneously increasing. Consequently, all the scenarios would ~
reverse a century-long trend of increased energy consumption coupled with increased JiJ~
greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this bold reversal, global greenhouse emissions must
peak, begin to decline, and ultimately reach "net zero" or relatively inconsequential levels.
Consistent with the UNFCCC goal, this must also be achieved while global economic
development proceeds.
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To illustrate the scale of challenge, consider that in 2000, world energy consumption was
approximately 400 exajoules. Fossil fuels provide over three-fourths of this. Because energy
from fossil fuels is the largest source of anthropogenic CO2, a long-term decline in greenhouse
gas emissions that results in "net zero" emissions cannot realistically occur absent an eventual
reduction in freely-vented CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels. The pace and extent of the reduction
depends upon a number of variables, including the mix of fossil fuel types being consumed, the
success at abating other greenhouse gases beyond CO 2, the extent to which terrestrial
sequestration is successful, and other factors.
In addition, consider that in order to support continued global economic growth, as well as meet
a number of other important energy-dependent challenges, most energy analysts expect global
ener consumption to rise significant! throu out the century. or examp e, e majority of
the scenarios om e C's Special Report on Emission Scenarios estimate that energy
demand will increase from the current level of approximately 400 exajoules to between 800 and
2200 exajoules by the end of the cen ypically, these forecasts already include
I)( [extraor mary Improvements tn goal energy intensity (i.e., reduced energy per unit of GDP)
~vf..:;:' through energy efficiency and structural changes in the global economy.
...r-t...
,feY~J These two considerations: (1) a long-term decline in greenhouse gas emissions that ultimately
S~ \-" results in net-zero emissions; and (2) an expected dramatic increase in global energy
bJ-r;/ consumption; set the stage for the climate change technology challenge. While significant
~~ quantities of projected energy consumption will almost certainly be met by the accelerated
development and diffusion of more efficient energy technologies and energy conservation, the
~V· simple fact remains that global energy
~ CCTP Technology Scenarios
consumption will likely increase many-fold
by the end of the century. Thus,
CCTP scenarios focus on: significantly greater quantities of carbon-free
Key Sector-Level Transitions energy than socie~ realizes must come
Key Technologies on-line over the co ing decades.
Exploration of Technology Limits I\O.,.J
Technology Cost & Performance Goals
Based on a review of more than fifty long-
CCTP scenarios are based on: term energy analyses in the open scientific
Analysis of>50 long-term energy analyses, literature that reflect the above
Consultations with experts in R&D planning, considerations, and consultation with experts
technology, climate change, and economics.
in R&D planning, technology, climate
change, and economics, three technology
scenarios emerged as a robust basis for climate change technology R&D planning.
The CCTP scenarios are fundamentally technology scenarios constructed specifically to aid in
strategic R&D planning. They do not define the policy methods that mayor may not be required
to achieve the deployment of climate change technologies nor are they based upon specific
stabilization levels. Rather the scenarios are robust in that they illuminate technological
approaches that could be employed over a range of possible future energy consumption levels
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The three technology scenarios explore the conditions under which three differing energy
technology portfolios could buttress an economically prosperous, net-zero greenhouse gas future.
The scenarios are organized around the energy sector and zero-carbon technologies, as a result of
the dominant role the energy sector plays in addressing the climate challenge. However, primary
energy is by no means the only component of the scenarios, and several themes also run across
all three. In all scenarios, major gains, indeed some might say heroic gains, are assumed in
energy-efficiency (both production and demand). Alternative energy carriers of one type or
another (e.g., hydrogen and/or liquid biofuels) become important in all scenarios as a fuel for a
zero-net carbon transportation sector and, in the first scenario, to allow fossil fuels (e.g.,
hydrogen from sequestered coal) to serve small-scale, dispersed applications (e.g., residential
fuel cells). Further, in no scenario is overall success achieved without successful management of
other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and nitrous oxide) and significant amounts ofe02 pulled
from the atmosphere by terrestrial sequestration. The more that can be achieved along these
fronts, the less will be required from the low-carbon or carbon-free energy technologies in the
near-term, and the lower the cost of greenhouse gas management. Finally, in all scenarios,
economic growth, worldwide, is sustained.
"Closing the Loop on Carbon", the first

scenario, is a future in which engineered Technology Scenario #1:
carbon sequestration proves both technically "Closing the Loop on Carbon"
viable (i.e., high permanency) and
economically viable. This assures the The Standard Suite of Technologies is
Substantially Augmented by Engineered CO 2
continued viability of fossil fuels. The Sequestration, which Meets Key Technical,
continued use of coal, along with the eventual Economic, and Environmental Goals
rnatural depletion of conventional oil and gas, Fossil-Based Systems (Fuels, Power,
L must be accompanied by the development of Chemicals) Remain the Backbone of the Energy
System
an alternative fuel infrastructure to bring
Unconventional Oil & Gas become
coal-based energy to markets such as home Economically Viable
heating and transportation (e.g., as hydrogen). Solar, Wind and Bio-Fuels Industries Achieve
Also, with the advent of sequestration, the Maturity
development of unconventional oil and gas Hydrogen Becomes a Significant Energy Carrier
sources (e.g., methane hydrates and oil The Full Potential of Conventional Oil & Gas is
Realized
shales) becomes important. Dramatic Gains in Energy Efficiency Occur
Other GHGs Successfully Addressed
While fossil fuels serve as the backbone of Sustainable Economic Development and
the energy sector throughout the century in Stabilization Achieved
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5.wpd August 15, 2003 -~ Page 14 of 22
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DRAFT DRA J~T DRAFT
this scenario, they are not the only

Technology Scenario #2
contributors. The standard suite of energy "A New Energy Backbone"
technologies must contribute heavily to meet
the expected increased demand for energy. Extraordinary Advances in Solar, Wind, and/or
This standard suite includes wind, solar, Traditional Bio-Energy are Realized
biomass, and other renewables, as well as A New Generation of Economically
Competitive, Inherently-Safe Nuclear Fission
nuclear energy, and energy efficiency. In Power is Accepted by the Global Marketplace
fact, by 2100, the total energy produced from Sequestration is Limited to Niche Markets
renewables and nuclear coupled with savings Limiting Fossil Fuels
from efficiency could exceed, in size, annual Together, Renewables and Nuclear Become
the New Backbone of the Energy System
world energy production today. Thus,
Hydrogen Becomes a Significant Energy
"Closing the Loop on Carbon" is not just Carrier
success for fossil fuels, it also represents The Full Potential of Conventional Oil & Gas
success for renew ables, nuclear, and energy is Realized
efficiency. In addition.ebatement of other Dramatic Gains in Energy Efficiency Occur
Other GHGs Successfully Addressed
greenhouse gases is critical, and terrestrial Sustainable Economic Development and
sequestration plays an important supporting Stabilization Achieved
role, particularly early in the century.
"A New Energy Backbone", the second

scenario, represents a world in which sequestration plays a niche role, most likely as a result of
either: the techno-economic limitations of sequestration; or dramatic breakthroughs in
renewables and/or nuclear, which give them a significant competitive advantage. In addition to
providing electricity, renewables and nuclear energy are an important source of hydrogen in the
second scenario. Due to the limited utility of sequestration in this scenario, the development of
unconventional oil and gas resources is not as
valuable as in scenario one. However, as with
Technology Scenario #3:
scenario one, extraordinary gains in energy "Beyond the Standard Suite"
efficiency are realized, other greenhouse gases
are addressed, and terrestrial sequestration Breakthroughs AlIow Increasing Reliance on
plays an important support role. New Technologies that Go Beyond the
Standard Suite, for example:
Fusion Power
"Beyond the Standard Suite", the third Global Super-Conductivity Power
scenario, envisions an energy system where Transmission Grids,
one or more exotic technologies that have yet Orbiting Solar Power Satellites,'
to be perfected, or perhaps even conceived, are An Array of Bio-X Technologies
adopted by the marketplace at scales at least as Hydrogen Becomes a Significant Energy
Carrier
large as the global energy system of today. The Full Potential of Conventional Oil & Gas
These more exotic technologies include fusion is Realized
energy, genetically-engineered biomass Dramatic Gains in Energy Efficiency Occur
energy, or space-based solar power. As with Other GHGs Successfully Addressed
the other scenarios, extraordinary gains in Sustainable Economic Development and
Stabilization Achieved
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DH.,\F; DRAFT URAfT
energy efficiency are realized, other greenhouse gases are addressed, and terr strial sequestration
plays an important support role.
Each scenario explores a technological future that might apply over a range f future conditions-
-population growth, economic growth, energy-efficiency improvements, th aggressiveness of
efforts curb greenhouse gases, and stabilization goals. Tabl ows the r nges of contributions
that primary energy sources and engineered sequestratio must b capable ofaffordably
providing at different time periods and cumulatively over e 11 century, Many ranges are
large, reflecting both the uncertainty in the underlying parameters and variations in the energy
mixes that are consistent with the scenarios. However, comparing the scale of today's energy
system (shown in the second column of Table 1) with the projections for the future, the immense
scale of the technological challenge we face is clear.
T a ble 1: C ontrl'b utions 11rom p'

rimarv Enerzv S ources and Car b on S equestra tion **
2050 2100
Closing the ANew Beyond the Closingthe ANew Beyond the
Loop on Energy Standard Loopon Energy Standard
1990 Carbon Backbone Suite" Carbon Backbone Suite"
Engineered
sequestration 0 20·200 .. .. 200·]500 -- ..
(cumulative gt)
Engineered
0 2·12 -- - 2-25
_. --
Seouestration (lrt/vrl
Biomass Energy
-40 10-200 20·350 20·350 20·350 20-400 20-400
(exaioules/vr)
OtherRenewables and
NuclearEnergy -25 100·300 150·500 150·500 100·800 300·1500 300-1500
(exaioules/vr)
FossilEnergy
-300 600-1000 200-700 200-700 250·1500 250·500 250-500
(exajoules/yr)
Total Primary Energy
-365 600·1200 600-1200 600-1200 800-2000 800-2000 800·2000
(exaioules/vr)
**Electricity, Hydrogen, and Liquid fuels are energy carriers/intermediates and are thus not
included in this "primary energy" table.
6 GUIDING FRAMEWORK FOR PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT
The entire CCTP planning process; portfolio analyses, workshops, expert consultations, and
scenario analyses, resulted in a general guiding framework for the CCTP Strategic Plan and its
accompanying portfolio of R&D investments, including:
6.1 Support a Robust Portfolio:
Diversification of the climate change technology R&D portfolio is important because (1) the
magnitude of the challenge makes it extremely unlikely that a single class oftechnology could
meet the challenge on its own, (2) a diversified portfolio is a solid hedge against the possibility
CEQ 013606
DHAFT DRAFT DRAFT \.J.\.v
vJ
that some advanced technologies may not be as successful as hoped, ~ others in the portfolio
could exceed expectations, and (3) a robust, diversified science and technology capability will
maintain the flexibility to respond to, and to assimilate, pertinent information from other
countries, institutions, or areas of scientific inquiry.
6.2 Sequence R&D Investments
Investments in the global portfolio can be sequenced over time. Thus, supporting a robust J
portfolio does not necessarily mean that everything must be done immediately. Natural t.V 0.J.
sequencing of R&D should be based upon (1) the times when different technologies eeed-to be
available and cost-effective; (2) the need to quickly resolve critical uncertainties and, in many
cases, to hold back significant contingent research until such uncertainties are resolved; and (3)
the need to demonstrate early the feasibility of determinant technologies. (The most overarching
uncertainty identified by the scenario analysis is the technical viability of geologic
sequestration-this must be a high near-term priority).
6.3 Target Technology with Gigaton-Scale Potential ~
~
~
In terms of expected future energy demand and tee FeC}tti~Vels ofmitig 'on, the sheer scale
ofthe challenge calls for science and technology research that focuses no on incremental
improvements in technologies with limited potential for cost-effective, large-scale
commercialization, but on technologies or scientific explorations with the potential to deliver
100+ gigatons of mitigation over the coming century. This recommendation applies not just
across technology programs or technology areas, but also within programs or technology areas.
6.4 Leverage Investments via Technology Systems
RD&D must focus on technology systems, including infrastructure, not just component
technologies. There should be strong communication across and within agencies to facilitate a
systems focus. In addition, near-term research should include crosscutting "technology systems
analysis" to explore the characteristics and implications of future technology systems.
6.5 Support the Development of Alternative Fuel Systems \,oJo.J[ (;,Uy- I~-/o
~
In all three scenarios, meeting the UNFCCC ana President's long-term goal Wffi.tlltimateI)I
-t=eqUit:e a transition to alternative fuels-most likely biofuels or hydrogen-in the transportation
sector. Further, in a sequestration-heavy future, alternative fuels may be required to carry energy
from sequestered fossil energy plants to distribut: " ";lplications.
6.6 Understand Technology Limits
Science and technology research is not a one-time endeavor: the results oftoday's research
largely shape the direction and effectiveness of future research. There is tremendous value to be
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DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT
gained by resolving uncertainties that lie at the heart of clima change technology research. In
particular, for many technologies, the potential for affordabl gigaton-scale impacts is not well
understood or is the source of contentious debate. Issues of. arriers and limits-for example,
limits on affordable uranium for nuclear fission or- limits on water and land constraints for
biomass and other renewables--must receive serious attention if we are to continually improve
the targeting, and hence the effectiveness, of our science and technology research.
7 AREAS IDENTIFIED FOR RESEARCH EMPHASIS
The CCTP Working Groups undertook a review of their respective technology areas, assessed
the current state of the Federal R&D portfolio, and made recommendations for high priority
R&D and supporting strategic research. The reviews were further informed by the scenario
analyses. Preliminary findings were exposed
to expert technical criticism at a series of
workshops held in the Fall of2003. Current R&D Priorities in Support of the
Climate Change Technology Portfolio
Not all climate change technology R&D is (FY'03 and FY'04 Budgets)
required to be funded at one time. The long-
Energy Efficiency
term nature of the challenge suggests, to the Solid State Lighting
contrary, that investment in R&D may be Zero Energy Buildings
required indefinitely, perhaps for a100 years
or more. With the current level of Federal Hydrogen
investment at about $1.6 billion per year, Freedom Car
President's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative
sustained annually over many years, Fuel Cell Technology
augmented by investments from the private Hydrogen Technology
sector and other nations, there is a large Nuclear-Based Hydrogen Initiative
opportunity for technology and innovation. Large-Scale Hydrogen Production
from Fossil Fuels
Fuel Cell Systems
A consideration for a sustained portfolio of Advanced Heavy-Duty Vehicle
R&D investments, then, is not so much about Technologies
what technologies could contribute to the Hydrogen Infrastructure Safety Research
near- or long-term goals, but what and Development
technologies and their related technical
Fossil and Sequestration
issues should be explored in what sequence? Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum
Another consideration concerns feasibility Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships
and scale. What technologies could be FutureGen
expected to find plausible pathways to large- Capture and Sequestration Program Area
scale commercialization? Do they afford
Nuclear
sufficient potential to make a difference, if Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative
scaled to terawatt or multi-gigaton levels? Nuclear Power Generation IV
Another consideration is about impacts, pro Nuclear Power 2010
and con. If a technology were deployed at Nuclear Energy Research Initiative
ITER (Fusion Energy)
levels that would make a difference, what
CEQ 013608
would be the consequences or impacts of the full-cycle of technology related required activities?
If some technologies were found not able to meet these criteria, then would it not be best to find
out earlier rather than later, as other strategies would need to be developed and deployed?
Finally, what are the technical barriers to progress and bow might these be addressed by
supporting basic and strategic research?
7.1 FY 2003 and FY 2004 Initiatives
In addition to the ongoing climate change technology R&D, the Administration's FY2003 and
FY2004 budgets identified a number of R&D priorities. These priorities, including a number of
Presidential initiatives, and other high-priority R&D areas, as shown in the accompanying box.
7.2 Future Areas for R&D Emphasis
In addition to the current R&D baseline, and the R&D initiatives identified above, the portfolio
and scenario analyses, along with the working group reviews, suggest areas that will be
important for meeting CCTP Strategic goals and for future R&D emphasis.
Transportation Efficiency. Develop fuel cell vehicle (it is the essential platform for high
efficiency carbon-neutral vebicles-either bio-fuel based with on-board reforming or pure
H2-based)
Buildings & Industry Efficiency. Emphasize technologies that enable cutting building and
industrial energy consumption in halfby 20S<t!P the extent the marketplace will not create
the technologies itselyEmphasize end-use electrification or end-use sequestration or end-
use H2 delivery with zero-emissions.
Terrestrial sequestration: Focus on technology that enables immediate deployment.

Monitoring and accounting systems. Basic science that yields an immediate resolution on
the permanence/capacity
Other Gases. TBD (Methane, Nitrous Oxide)
Wind. Low Wind, speed, high efficiency turbines, in order to expand applicability.
Solar Power. Basic research into new PV materials, concepts, and production methods.
Geologic sequestration. Focus on science h 'coc,d, engineering-scale projects. Emphasize

high capacity geologic formations (i.e., deep saline and deep unrnineable coal seams rather
than niche EOR sequestration).
Carbon capture. Focus on diversity of flue gas streams (industrial and powerplants).
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan RevS.wpd August 15, 2003 -- Page 19 of 22
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DR·\.FT DR.\FT nR.·\FT
Advancedfossil technology. Emphasize coal-to-power and coal-to-hydrogen with
substantially higher efficiencies.
Nuclear. Sustain U.S. nuclear capacity through life-extension technology. Develop

competitive next generation reactor design.
Biomass Develop next generation bio-fuels and bio-power technology (begin developing
complements to conventional bio-ethanol; bio-products are niche technology).
Ocean sequestration. Improve our scientific understanding of ocean sequestration. Focus

on science that supports a determination of its potential viability.
Monitoring and Measurement. TBD (Space-Based Earth Observation Summit, Regional,

Local, Soils)
7.3 Supporting Strategic Research
For complex problems that span a century time frame and beyond, solutions require that science
and technology work together. Knowledge is required to design and develop the technological
solutions and to provide an intellectual framework to assess the long-term impacts of deployment
on the massive scales necessary. Universities and national laboratories, with their extraordinary
capabilities for discovery and problem solving, are particularly well positioned to conduct basic
research in these areas. Numerous recent revolutionary advances promise critical contributions to
meeting the global energy challenge.
The following are broad areas of supporting strategic research, in addition to the baseline of
ongoing basic research, identified as important to the technical progress of the above-mentioned
applied technology R&D areas, and to their deployment.
Biotechnology. Biotechnology embodies a set of basic research disciplines that investigates

the underlying biological processes of plants and microorganisms. The recent revolution in
genomics and ensuing technologies has dramatically increased our ability: to discover,
engineer, and develop micro-organisms and enzymes that can be used to process biomass to
fuels and chemicals; to gain a better understanding of the functional genomics of high-
potential biomass crops; to increase yields and design crops that increase separation-and
conversion efficiency for fuels, chemicals and other bioproducts; and to enhance the
capabilities ofbiosystems for carbon sequestration.
Physical Sciences. Physical sciences include the chemical sciences, materials sciences,
physics, geosciences, and nanosciences. Nanoscale science, for example, cuts across and
underpins many other sciences, affording great potential for innovation in energy storage,
fuel cells, biomimetics, tribology, and other areas. Photochemical processes can potentially
produce hydrogen. Photo-conversion technologies are needed that could lead to direct and
CEQ 013610
' ..
potentially efficient production of fuels, materials, and chemicals, as well as electrical

power. Studies of catalysts, separation methods, and combustion processes underlie many
potentially useful technologies. Progress continues in fusion energy and the next large-scale
step would be to explore the behavior of "burning plasmas," self-heated by the ongoing
fusion process.
Computational Sciences. Many recent advances in science and technology have been made
possible by the rapid increase in the power of computers. Improvements in computational
sciences are needed for: modeling combustion; improved software and controls for
advanced electric power grids; advanced models for evaluation of CO 2 in ocean
environments and understanding of the ocean biological pump; improved models of
photovoltaic and other materials; improved models of the aerodynamics of wind turbines
and other fluid dynamics processes; computer assisted simulations of proposed advanced
components and energy systems; software expert systems and intelligent agents; and
analysis of urban/suburban land processes and parameters that affect and contribute to the
carbon cycle. Modeling and simulation are critical to rapidly engineering new properties and
phenomena into useful processes and products.
Environmental Sciences. Environmental science needs include research into integrated

ecological systems, as well as relationships among GHGs with the physical aspects of the
environment. Research is needed to understand the behavior of large-scale injections of
CO 2 into reservoirs, and for storage of carbon in soils, terrestrial biomass, and oceans. Non-
climate environmental impacts must be identified and understood. Development of sensors
and computational models that allow measuring, monitoring, and verification of
environmental carbon flows are needed to provide consistent pictures of the evolution of
climate change and the effectiveness of efforts to reduce anthropogenic forcing. The
impacts of the built environment on man-made and natural ecosystems are nee ed for
informing future land use planning. Better understanding is required of the nature of indo Of
air quality, its interrelationship with other buildings-related environmental factors, and its
effects on human productivity and health, in order to confidently pursue zero-emissions
buildings.
(End afFront Piece)
8 WORKING GROUP REPORTS
Note: Following the Front Piece, there will appear 28 reports, 4-6 pages apiece, one for each
major technology area (e.g., hydrogen, geologic sequestration, nuclearfission, etc.) identified
earlier under the Working Group structure (page 11). Each report will summarize the results of
the Working Groups' portfolio reviews and provide more detail, in more depth, than is possible
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan RevS.wpd August 15,2003 -- Page 21 of 22
CEQ 013611
' ..
DHAFT DR.·\.;:;T DRAfT
in the Front Piece. Each report will follow a commonly formatted series ofsubject areas. These
areas include the following:
1. Vision Statement (e.g.i for Hydrogen, Nuclear, Transportation) 7

a. Characterization ofa UNFCCC "End-State" f "....N\- '
b. Rolefor Technology I"l..--Pr~-.
c. Potential Contribution C- n
2. Key Technologies ~ ~
a. Plausible Pathways ~(Transitions)
b. Key Technologies Identified (Call-out box; Mention in Text)
c. Links to Technology Profiles
3. High-Priority R&D
a. Areas ofR&D Emphasis (Rationale)
b. Supporting R&D Plans or "Roadmaps"
c. Current and Proposed R&D (Consistent w/Budget)
d. Selected Highlights for FY05-09
4. Collaborations (Selected, not Exhaustive)
a. Partnerships with Industry
b. Partnerships with International Entities
c. Partnerships with Stakeholders
5. Technology Transfer and Commercial Adoption
6. Longer-Term R&D (Beyond Five-Year R&D Plan)
a. Areas ofPotential Interest Beyond FY05-09
b. Very Long- Term R&D
7. Supporting Basic Research
a. Key Barriers to Technology Progress
b. Promising Areas Identifiedfor Basic Research
At a total of200 pages, the these reports will constitute the main body ofthe CCTP Strategic
Plan. Each report will reference, for those seeking further detail, a set of 100 Key Technology
Profiles, supporting papers, and R&D program plans, posted on the CCTP WebSite.
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5.wpd August 15, 2003 .- Page 22 of 22
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August 21,2003
CCTP Strategic Plan

Table of Contents - Working Group Reports
8 WORKING GROUP REPORTS (Anticipated Contributions, 22 Sections)
8.1 Energy Production
8.1.1 Hydrogen
8.1.2 Renewable fuels
8.1.3 LowCarbon Fuels
8.1.4 Renewable Power
8.1.5 NuclearFission Power
8.1.6 NuclearFusion Power
8.1.7 LowEmissions Fossil-Based Power
8.1.8 ElectricGrid and Infrastrucrure (i.e. CCTP EnablingElements)
8.2 Energy Efficiency
8.2. I Transportation
8.2.2 Buildings
8.2.3 Industry:
8.3 Sequestration
8.3.1 Geologic
8.3.2 Terrestrial
8.3.3 Ocean
8.3.4 ProductIMaterials
8.4 OtherGases
8.4. I Energy & Waste· Methane

8.4.2 Agriculture. Methane and OtherGases
8.4.3 High GWP Gases
8.4.4 NitrousOxide
8.4.5 Ozone Precursors & BlackCarbon
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8.5 Measuring and Monitoring
8.6 Basic Research
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, . . l .....
..
.<,).: .,~;'
, •
.
,
"
."~. ..
AGENDA
CCSP Principals Me~ting

August 21;'2003, 10:00 ~ '12 a.m,
Climate Change Science Program office
Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
NRC
- NRC meeting agenda
- Overarching NRC recommendations and initial ideas for response
Agency responsibilities for CCSP synthesis and assessment products

- Table of collated responses
Arctic Assessment Review

- Proposed approach for review
Update on Earth Observation Summit
002058
CEQ 013636 /
~"'- THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advims fo th~ IlotiM en Scicflcer fngfnecring, IJflU ~
Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Progran

Strategic Plan
DRAFTAgenda
August 25-27, 2003
The National Academies Keck Center

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001
The objectives of this meeting are:

1. Discuss with federal agency representatives their approach to revising the strategic plan I nd the"
expectations of the committee for phase II; .
2. Discuss the revised strategic plan;
3. Discuss the CCSP process for obtaining scientific and stakeholder Input on the draft strat ~ic
plan; .
4. Develop the outline for the committee's second report;
5. Develop preliminary findings and recommendations for the committee's second report;
6. Discuss future committee activities.
II Monday, August 25,2003 (Room 100) II
OPEN SESSION
9:30A.M. Welcome and introductions Thomas 3raedel
9:45A.M. Overview of the Strategic Plan and Responses Ghassem Asra NASA
to Comments Richard Moss, CCS PO
11:15 A.M. Discussion
12:00 NOON Lunch (perhaps continue dlscusslon with Mahoney and Moss)
1:00 P.M. Chapter 8: Ecosystems Susan Herrod Julius, USEPA

Steve Schafer, USDA (in ited),
1:30 P.M. Chapter 9: Human Contributions and Janet Gamble, USEPA

Responses to Environmental Change caitlin Simpson NOAA
2:00p.M. Chapter 11: Decision Support Resources Susan Avery, NOAA and CCSPO
Development Richard Moss. CCSPO
2:30p.M. Chapter 14: Communications Kathryn Parke (EPA)
CEQ 013637
"
.....
3:00p.M. CCTP progress and Unkage with CCSP David Conover
Director, Climate Change Technology Program
3:30 P.M. Break
3:50 P.M. Chapter 10: Modeling Strategy Jay Fjaln, NSF
4:15 P.M. Chapter 12: Observing and Monitoring Chester ~ obllnsky

the Climate System NASAandCCSPO
4:40 P.M. Chapter 13: Data Management and Information Wanda Farrell. DOE (invited)
Margarita Conkrigh~ NOAA and PCSPO
Martha Malden. NASA invited)
Clifford Jacobs, NSF Invited)
5:05 P.M. Chapter 15: International Research and Cooperation' Louis Bro'W n, NSF
David Allen, ~CSPO
5:30 P.M. Break
II Tuesday, August 26; 2003 (Room 105) II

CLOSED SESSION
II Wednesday, August 27,2003 (Room 105) II

CLOSED SESSION
CEQ 013638
WORKINGDRAFf
August21, 2003
1
2 Revision of Draft CCSP Strategic Plan in Response to NRC Recommendatio s
3
4 The following background paper is a working draft summary of how the revised CCSP trategic
5 Plan responds to the major recommendations in the February 20'03 NRC review of the
6 Di cussion Draft strategic Plan. It was prepared by the CCSP Office with a view to inte
7 program use rather than formal transmission or general distribution,
8
9
10 Clarifying Vision and Goals
11
12 Elements of a Strategic Plan
13
14 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should articulate a clear, concise vi ion
15 statement for the program in the context of national needs. The visionshould be spec fie,
16 ambitious, and apply to the entire CCSP. The plan should translate this vision into a et of
17 tangible goals, apply an explicit process to establish priorities, and include an effectiv
18 management plan.
19
20 RESPONSE: The vision, goals, core approaches, prioritization, and management plan f
21 program are articulated in' the revised Strategic Plan and summarized in the companio
22 "Vision" document, "Chapter 1. Introduction" (pp. I ~ 19) has been re-written to conci ely
23 address each of these issues. The chapter discusses the vision and mission of the CCS (p.
24 4); identifies two broad, overarching questions and specifies five goals to focus and 0 ent
25 research in the program to ensure that knowledge developed by ,the participating agen ies
26 and research elements can be iritegrated and synthesized to address these broad questi (pp.
27 4-6); outlines four "core approaches" that will be employed in working toward the goa s (pp.
28 6-13); summarizes CCSP prioritization criteria (pp. 13-15)~ and introduces the CCSP
29 interagency management mechanisms (pp. 15-17).
30
31 A new "Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research" (pp. 20-52) has
32 added, providing an overview ofhow the goals constitute a comprehensive, program- 'de
33 framework for drawing together a wide range of interdisciplinary research activities an
34 observations to focus on key climate and associated global change issues.
35
36 With regard to the issue of links between goals, timetables for accomplishment, and sp cific
37 deIiverables: Chapter 2 indicates "key research activities" focused on each ofthe five oals
38 - these research activities are drawn from the chapters on the CCSP science research
39 elements (Chapters 3-9). Chapters 3-9 identify numerous deliverables ("milestones,
40 products, and payoffs") on a timeline of''within 2 years," "24 years," and "beyond 4 y ars."
41 Each of the five goals identified in Chapter 2 also is associated with a set of CCSP "syn esis
42 and assessment products," to be developed on an ongoing basis (pp. 4345). Chapter 2
43 identifies near-term synthesis and assessment products on a time line of "within 2 years' and
44 "24 years. tt
45
CEQ 013 9
WORKING DRAFf
f August 2I. 2003
1 "Chapter 16. Program Management and Review" is a substantially revised and stren ened
2 presentation on the CCSP interagency management mechanisms (pp. 316·328).
3
4
5 Relationship Between the USGCRP and the CCRI
6
7 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should: (1) present clear goals for e
8 CCRI and ensure that its activities are consistent with these goals; (2) maintain C s
9 strong emphasis on support for near-term decisions as an ongoing component of the rogram;
10 and (3) include an explicit mechanism to link GCRP and CCRI activities.
11
12 RESPONSE: The revised plan substantially clarifies the relationship between the CCRI and the
13 USGCRP as a strategically integrated effort. While the draft plan partitioned the CC and
14 USGCRP plans into separate parts of the document, each with its own set ofchapters, the
15 revised plan makes it clearer that the CCSP is a single program, in which the broad U GCRP
16 and the activities given near-term high priority under the CCRl share a common visio and
17 set of goals. The cqsP manages CCRI activities jointly with management of the Ion -term
18 USGCRP studies, using the same interagency management and scientific working gro p
19 structures.
20
21 The launching of the CCRI to address high-priority issues and uncertainties identified n the
22 2001 NRC report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis ofSome Key Questions, is de cribed
23 in the plan (pp. 13-1 Q) and the Vision document (pp. 6-7). The revised plan presents a
24 unified discussion of CCSP research questions, needs, milestones, products, and payo
25 CCRI priorities are highlighted at the appropriate locations in the discussion of the v ous
26 CCSP research elements (see pp. 57, 79-80, 139-140). The CCSP strategy for observa ions
27 and monitoring, and the modeling strategy, are framed in terms of a unified set of goal and
28 objectives (see "Chapter 10. Modeling Strategy" and "Chapter 12. Observing and
29 Monitoring").
30
31 CCSP Decision Support Resources activities will build on the science foundation estab ished
32 by both the USGCRP and the CCRI (see pp. 214-216). While the plan identifies an er of
33 synthesis and assessment products to be developed during the next four years, the Deci ion
34 Support Resources component of the program is designed to be ongoing, not just a ne term
35 activity.
36
37
38 Meeting the Nation's Needs for Climate and Global Change Information
39
40 Global Climate Observation System
41
42 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should better describe a strategic pro m
43 for achieving an integrated observing system for detecting and understanding climate
44 variability and change and associated global changes on scales from regional to global.
45
CEQ 013 0
WORKINGDRAFr
August 21,2003
1 RESPONSE: The revised plan contains a substantial re-working ofthe material in the, ft plan
2 on climate systemobserving and monitoring. While the draft plan addressed observ tionsin
3 two separate chapters(Chapter 3 in the CCRI section and Chapter 12 in the USGC
4 section), the revisedplan has a singlechapter (Chapter 12) on observing and monito g.
5 This chapter lays out a strategy for climate system observing and monitoring, expres ed in
6 terms of a single overarching question and six goals, eachofwhich is outlinedwith a set of
7 objectives.
8
9 Goal 1 is: "Design,develop, deploy, and integrate observation components into a
10 comprehensivesystem."The plan specifies 10 Objectives toward achievingthis goal see pp.'
11 239-243). This goal specifically addresses recommendations from the NRC on a) th
12 to provide a strategyfor the development of the integrated observing system; b) inte
13 of existing facilities with plans for expansion; c) the role of the CCSP in the observin
14 system; d) Continuity and flexibility; e) transition from researoh to operations; f)
15 requirements for operational weatherobservations; g) climate services; and h) region
16 observations. Amongthese issues, aspects needing substantial further work continue 0 be in
17 the plans for flexibility of the development; transition from research to operations; an
18 regional observations. However, the latter have been discussed in Chapters3 through .
19
20 Chapter 12 outlines theneed for observations to detect and understand climatevariabi ity and
21 change and associated global changeson scales from regional to global. For example, Goal
22 2, "Accelerate the development and deployment of observingand monitoringelemen
23 needed for decision support," addresses needs for atmosphere and ocean observation
24 elements, paleoclimaterecords, and new capabilities for ecosystem observations. The atter
25 will enable a significantly more completerecord of the responses of regionally diverse
26 ecosystems to climate and related environmentalchanges (see pp. 243-248). ' A limita on in
27 this goal of the plan could be the practicalityof the timelines associated with these CC
28 activities. '
29
30 The third goal describes stewardship of the observing system through 4 specific objecti es:
31 a) following climate monitoring principles; b) provision for independent measurement d
32 , analysis; c) proper characterizationofsensors and algorithms to ensure climatequality ta
33 products; and d) productionof climate data records. This goal and these objectives ad ess
34 concerns from the NRCabout the stewardship of long-termclimate observations over s veral
35 generations, the balanceof satellite and in situ observations,and climate quality calibra .on.
36
37 Thefourth goal addresses the integrationof modeling activities with observations. This
38 section specifically addresses weaknesses in the earlier draft pointed out during the wo
39 and by the NRC. Thereis some overlapwith the discussionin Chapter 10 (Modeling
40 Strategy), Goall. The fifth goal discusses international cooperation needed to develop e
41 observingsystem. This goal addresses a specific recommendationmade by the NRC
42 concerning the need for coordination with the international community. Finally, the six
43 goal describes the CCSP approach to management of the observation system. This goal
44 describes to some extentthe mechanism for interagency cooperation requested by the
45
46
CEQ 013 1
WORKING DRAFT
21, 2003
AUgust
I Improve Understanding of Climate and Associated Global Changes

2
3 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should more fully describe how m dels
4 and knowledge that support regional decisionmaking and place-based science will b
5 developed.
6
7 RESPONSE: In order to highlight modeling activities, a separate chapter has been dev loped
8 (Chapter 10). In particular, this recommendation is addressed in Objective 1.6 oftha
9 chapter: "Accelerate the development of scientifically-based predictive models to pr
10 regional and fine-scale climate and climate impacts information relevant for scientifi
11 research and decision support applications" (pp.201-202). In addition, Chapter 10,
12 and associated objectives provide a focus for discussion of applied climate modeling.
13
14 "Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development" (pp, 214-235) introduces a trategy
15 for developing scientific syntheses and assessments to support informed discussion 0
16 climate variability and change issues by decisionmakers, stakeholders, the media, and the
17 general public (Goal 1, pp. 218-220), and for developing resources to support adaptiv
18 management and planning for responding to climate variability and climate change, d
19 transitioning these resources from research to operational application (Goal 2, pp. 220 226).
20 CCSP research results, data products, forecasts, and model results will increasingly b
21 applied to adaptive management decision support, with the potential to address a wide range
22 of regional and place-based issues.
23
24 CCSP research results will be integrated with results from research programs conduct by
25 other countries and organizations in international assessments and applications as desc 'bed
26 in "Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation" ("International Assessments d
27 Applications, pp. 297-298").
28
29
30 RECOMMENDATION: The revised plan should strengthen its approach to the human,
31 economic, and ecological dimensions of climate and associated global changes to ens e it
32 supports the research necessary to project and monitor societal and ecosystem impacts, to
33 design adaptation and mitigation strategies, and to understand the costs and benefits of
34 climate change and related response options.
35
36 RESPONSE: Integrated assessment analyses discussed in Chapter 11 includes impacts
37 modeling of the environment as well as socio-economic systems. In developing the d
38 support resources it is recognized that this modeling is required. Specific objectives fo
39 addressing integrated climate system models are discussed in Chapter 10 (Objectives 1. and
40 2.2) and impacts modeling advances are discussed in individual science chapters. Speci IC
41 socio-economic impacts and assessments are further discussed in Chapter 9 (Questions .2
42 and 9.4). Integrated evaluations are discussed in Chapter 11 (Objective 3.1) and form th
43 basis for conducting a limited number of case studies in order to evaluate lessons learn
44 from integrated analysis approaches. Specific economic modeling is not addressed in th
45 plan yet is recognized to be an important contribution in the integrated analyses.
46
CEQ 013 2
WORKING DRAFT
August 21, 2003
1
2
3
able to fully develop the economics and environmental impacts modeling needs as
development of case studies that will require economics and environmental impacts
,UI
Follow-on workshops that will discuss implementation issues for decision support . be
the
4 modeling expertise. !
5
6
7 RECOMMENDATION: The CCSP should strengthen the treatment and integration 0
8 crosscutting research areas in all substantive chapters. The revised strategic plan sho
9 address the interactions and synergies of climate change with other associated global
10 changes.
11
12 RESPONSE: The revised plan contains a strengthened treatment and integration of cro cutting
13 research, in several ways. In the new Chapter 2, the discussion related to each of the ve
14 Goals provides examples of key research activities with sets of."Focus" research area -
15 these Focus areas call for integrating research from across the CCSP interdisciplinary
16 research elements (pp. 20-37). Chapter 2 also outlines "Critical Dependencies" arno the
17 seven CCSP research elements, with examples ofhow research and observations in 0 e
18 element will provide results needed by one or more of the other elements (pp. 37-40).
19
20 Throughout the substantive chapters on the research elements (Chapters 3-9), which i entify
21 "Illustrative Research Questions," key "Research Needs," and "Milestones, Products, nd
22 Payoffs," crosscutting linkages, interdependencies, and collaborative efforts across el ments
23 are identified. As one example, in "Chapter 3. Atmospheric Composition," the seetio on
24 "Question 3.2: What are the atmospheric sources and sinks of the greenhouse gases 0 er
25 than C02 and the implications for the Earth's energy balance?" identifies specific
26 crosscutting links with the Global Carbon Cycle, Climate Variability and Change,
27 Ecosystems, Global Water Cycle, and Human Contributions and Responses elements
28 60).
29
30 The revised plan addresses the interactions and synergies of climate change with other
31 associated global changes. For example, in "Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Chang ,"
32 Question 6.4 is "How do climate variability and change affect land use and land cover, and
33 what are the potential feedbacks of changes in land use and land cover to climate?" (p . 126-
34 127) In "Chapter 8. Ecosystems," Question 8.1 is "What are the most important feedb ks
35 between ecological systems and global change (especially climate), and what are their
36 quantitative relationships?" (pp. 162-164)
37
38 Crosscutting chapters, including "Chapter 12. Observations and Monitoring" and "Cha ter
39 13. Data Management and Information," contain tables that link the observational and
40 management needs from Cahpters 3-9 with the strategies for addressing these needs in
41 Chapters 12 and 13 (Appendix 12.2, p. 262; Boxes 13-2 and 13-3, pp. 279-280).
42
43
44 RECOMMENDATION: The global and long-term historical context of climate change d
45 variability should receive greater emphasis in the revised strategic plan.
46
47 RESPONSE: [to be added]
CEQ 013 3
WORKING DRAFT
August21,2oo3
1
2
3 Addressing Key Uncertainties
4
5 RECOl\1MENDAnON: The revised strategic plan should identify what sources and
6 magnitudes ofreductions in key climate change uncertainties are especially needed
7 where an improved characterization ofuncertainty would benefit decisionmaking,
8 use this information to guide the research program.
9
10 RESPONSE: Key accelerated science priorities have been identified among all ofthe s ience
11 elements as well as in Chapters 1-2. Aerosols, carbon cycle, and climate feedbacks e the
12 key areas where improved characterization ofthe uncertainty has been identified as i portant
13 to decision-making. The issue of quantifying the magnitudes ofreductions needed in order
14 to move forward in decision-making is not easy -it needs to be further discussed wi
15 stakeholder interests, as well as being one ofthe major learning outcomes to be expe d
16 from using the case study approaches discussed in Chapter 11. Generally, improved
17 characterization of uncertainty is needed in all areas in order to make effectivejudgm nts on
18 the use ofthe science information in decision contexts. One of the major guidelines f r
19 decision support is the explicit treatment of Uncertainties and an understanding of the limits
20 of applicability associated with decision support tools, analyses, and reports.
21
22
23 Decision Support Resources
24
25 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should better describe how decision
26 support capabilities will be developed and how these efforts will link with and inform e
27 program's research to improve understanding of climate and associated global change
28
29 RESPONSE: Discussion and development of an overarching decision support framewor is a
30 key element of Chapter 11 (see figure in that chapter). One of the outcomes ofthe De ision
31 Support Resources Development component of the program will be the identification a
32 information needs to guide the evolution ofthe CCSP science agenda. Specific approa hes
33 are discussed in Chapter 11, Objectives 2.1 and 3.1. Management and coordination is
34 discussed at the end ofChapter 11 in the decision support management strategy section
35
36
37 RECOMMENDAnON: The discussion of applied climate modeling should be revised t
38 better describe how models will be incorporated into the broader suite ofdecision supp rt
39 activities and to better address the key challenges to attaining the applied climate model g
40 goals set forward in the plan.
41
42 RESPONSE: There is a complete new chapter (Chapter 10) articulating modeling strategy In
43 that chapter applied climate modeling focus can be found under Goal 3 and the three
44 objectives under that goal. Regional climate modeling is discussed in Goal 1, Objective 1.6.
45 Integrated assessment modeling is also discussed in Goal 3 and Objective 3.1 ofChapte 11.
46
CEQ 013 4
WORKING DRAFT
August 21, 2003
1 In Chapter 10, linkages to decision support are treated under objective 3.1. Near-te
2 priorities include actions and plans to establish and strenghten existing linkages bet een
3 basic, applied and impacts modeling through the "multi-tiered" structure. Objective 3.1
4 addresses how the NCAR-GFDL partnership will be directed and set priorities for n ar-term
5 progress.
6
7
8 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should build upon the lessons 1
9 applied climate studies and stakeholder interaction from prior environmental and eli
10 assessment activities.
11
12 [Response needs additional development]
13 RESPONSE: This is a key recommendation that has been incorporated into Chapter 11 der
14 objective 3.2 It is also embodied in the principal guidelines for CCSP decision supp rt
15 approach: Evaluate ongoing CCSP analyses and build on the lessons learned. The d cision
16 support management strategy also ensures continued examination of "lessons learned' from
17 decision support activities.
18
19
20 Capacity Building to Implement the Strategic Plan
21
22 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should explicitly address the major
23 requirements in building capacity in human resources that are implied in the plan.
24
26
27
28 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should provide details about how th CCSP
29 will acquire the computing resources necessary to achieve i~ goals.
30
31 RESPONSE: In Chapter 10 (pp. 203-205), near-term priorities include specific strategies for
32 building U.S. computing capacity and capability. The FY 2004 CCSP budget request
33 . includes enhancements for computing at GFDL
34
35
36 Financial Resources for Implementing the Plan
37
38 RECOMMENDATION: The CCSP should use the clear goals and program priorities of e
39 revised strategic plan and advice from the independent advisory body recommended by the
40 committee to guide future funding decisions.
41
43
44
45 Managing and Guiding the Program
46
CEQ 013 Ll5

WORKING DRAFT
August 21,2003
1 Interactions Between Climate Change Seience and Technology

2
3 RECOMMENDATION: The CCSP should assess the scientific implications of the
4 technologies under consideration by the CCTP and develop realistic scenarios for eli te and
5 associated global changes with these technologies in mind. The program manageme t
6 chapter of the revised CCSP strategic pIari should clearly describe mechanisms for
7 coordinating and linking its activities with the technology development activities of e
8 CCTP.
9
10 (Response needs additional development]
11 RESPONSE: See response to next recommendation. The cabinet-based management s cture
12 provides executive direction under which CCSP and CCTP activities will be coordin ted.
13 Planning and implementation will be coordinated through interagency working group
14 (Chapter 16, pp. 318-320).
15
16
17 Interagency Management
18
19 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should describe the management pr cesses
20 to be used to foster agency cooperation toward common CCSP goals. The revised pI also
21 should clearly describe the responsibilities ofthe CCSP leadership.
22
23 RESPONSE: Program management and review is discussed in a completely revised cha ter
24 (Chapter 16, pp. 316-328). The chapter includes a description ofthe cabinet-based
25 management structure and how it carries out executive direction. The implementation of the
26 program by the individual CCSP participating agencies is described intabular form. e
27 coordination of these activities is carried out through the CCSP interagency governing body
28 through the leadership of the CCSP Director. Program level implementation and
29 coordination occurs through the work ofthe interagency working groups. Each of the
30 research elements, as well as modeling, decision support, observations and monitoring data
31 management, international coordination, and communication have an interagency wor . g
32 group.
33
34
35 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should more clearly outline agency
36 responsibilities for implementing the research.
37
38 RESPONSE: Box 16-1 describes the principal areas of focus for each CCSP agency (pp. 23-
39 327). This Strategic Plan is intended to be part of a family of documents that will inclu e
40 more detailed implementation plans for the various components of the program. Speci c
41 agency responsibilities and interagency activities will be articulated in follow-up
42 implementation. '
43
44
CEQ 013 6
WORKING DRAFT
August21, 2003
1 RECOMMENDATION: The CCSP should encourage participation of those agencies hose

2 research or operational responsibilities would strengthen the ability of the program deliver
3 products that serve national needs.
4
5 RESPONSE: [to be added] .
6
7
8 External Guidance
9
10 RECOMMENDATION: The CCSP should establish a standing advisory body charged with
11 independent oversight ofthe entire program. . ..
12
13 RESPONSE: The CCSP has considered this NRC recommendation, After careful revie
14 CCSP believes that essential program oversight is better provided by the use ofa nu
15 external advisory mechanisms, includingperiodic overall program reviews by the NR or
16 other groups, rather than a single body. Additional mechanisms to seek external scie . c
17 input, such as workshops, steering committees, ad hoc working groups, and review bo ds,·
18 will be employed as needed. The CCSP will continue to consider creation of a perm ent
19 overall advisory group as program implementation proceeds:(See "External Interaeti for
20 Guidance, Evaluation, and Feedback" (pp. 320-321).
21
22
23 Enhancing Linkages and Communication
24
25 Decision Makers
26
27 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should identify which categories of
28 decisionmakers the CCSP serves and describe how the program will improve two-way
29 communication with them.
30
31 RESPONSE: Categories of decision-making have been identified by decision type in Ch
32 I 1. The three goals in this chapter articulate approaches for informing public discussio ;
33 enhancing adaptive management decisions and supporting climate change policymakin .
34 Stakeholder interaction is one of the principal guidelines for the decision support appro ch.
35 This interaction has been identified for: problem identification and framing; review of
36 analysis questions, methods, and draft results; co-development of decision support too via
37 interdisciplinary teams; feedback from experiences with CCSP decision support projec and
38 analyses. The approach is to enhance existing case studies; develop pilot policy questio
39 case studies; and develop and demonstrate a decision support toolkit.
40
41
42 International Community
43
44 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should clearly describe how the CCS will
45 contribute to and benefit from international research collaborations and assessments.
·46
g'
CEQ 013647
WORKINGDRAFf
August 21,2003
1 RESPONSE: Climate change and its impacts are global in scope and research on these issues is
2 intrinsically international in nature. The CCSP both contributes to and benefits fro
3 interactions with the international climate change research community in a great nu ber of
4 ways. The CCSP contributes to this community by providing scientific I~adership in wide
5 range of areas. The U.S., for example, provides scientific leadership for capacity bui ing
6 efforts; for research directed at understanding human dimensions; for planning and
7 implementation of satellite remote sensing and In-situ observational programs: for
8 international data management, archiving and exchange; and in a host of other areas well.
9 The U.S. also makes significant contributions to international assessments by provi . g
10 support for U.S. scientists to participate and providing logistical support, resulting in .S.
11 scientists making significant substantive scientific contributions.
12
13 Equally important is the value to the U.S. of participating in international climate ch ge
14 research and cooperation. First and foremost, the U.S. benefits from international coo
15 through sharing both the scientific and cost burden of conducting climate change relat
16 research and related observational and data management programs and activities. For
17 example, the U.S. will benefit from global climate observations now being advanced
18 facilitated by efforts 'such the lGOS-P and the Earth Observation Summit. Such global
19 observations of climate are essential to the research through which understanding of
20 Earth's climate system will be improved and broadened. .
21
22 For a comprehensive summary of U.S. contributions to and benefits from participating in
23 . international climate change research, see references throughout the Strategic Plan and in
24 particular "Chapter 15, International Research and Cooperation."
25
10
CEQ 013648
DRAFT FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY 8/21 1/2003
Summary of Synthesis and Assessment Products

"Strawman" Agency Leads List
CCSP Goal I1mprove knowledge ojthe Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural
variabuit», and lmorove understandint: ofthe causes ofobserved variahi/lJy and change
2004 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere-steps. for understanding and NOM lead
reconciling differences. NASA Sunnort
2005 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes. NSF lead
NOAA SUDDort
2007 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications NOAA !NASA leads
for attribution of causes of observed change. DOE Support
CCSP Goal 2 Improve quantification of'the jorces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and
related systems
First Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in DOEIe~d
updated collaboration with the CCI'P. Review of integrated scenario development and NOAA NASA support
set in application.
2005
2005 North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle. DOE Ie d
NOAA, NASA support
2006 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate. NOAA NASA leads
2006 Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and NOAA NASA
implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change.
CCSP Goal 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and environmental systems nu!y change in the
future
2005 Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios NOAA ead;
developed through the CCTP. NSF,D( E support
2006 Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, NSF lea;
and uncertainty analysis. NOAA, ~ASA, DOE
support
2007 Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for NOAAI~d
improving projections. NASA S upnort
2007 Risks of abrupt changes in global climate. NSF leac
NOAA s mnort
CCSP Goal 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability ojdifferent natural and managed ecosystems
and human systems to climate and related elobal changes
2004 Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability DOT
sensitivities, potential impacts. and response options.
2Q05 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise. EPA Leac'
NOAA, } ASA support
2006 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities NSF lead
(sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources.
67 CEQ 013649
DRAFT FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY 8/21 12003
"
EPA, N"OAA Support
2006 Relationship between observed ecosystem changes and climate change. USDA lead
EPA, 1 OAA, NASA,
NSF Suonort
2006 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and USDA rEp A leads
resources. NOAA NASA,
supnor
2007 Scenario-based analysis of the climatological, environmental, resource, Special CCSP mgmt.
technological, and economic implications of different atmospheric concentrations structure; topical leads
of greenhouse gases. among gencies
NASA ;UDDort
2007 Stare-of-the-science of socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate EPA Lead
variability. ' NOAA, NASA support
CCSP GoalS Explore the USI!S and identify the limits ofevolving knowledge to manage risks and
otmortunities reloUd to cl1mate variabilitv and chanf!e
2004 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in NASAl ad
decision support for selected sectors and regions. EPA, Nl ~AA support
2005 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating NSFINASA leads
scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. EPA, N( AA support
2005 Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual NOAA I ad
forecasts and observational data. NASA, I PA support
---------------- CEQ 01 o
u.s. Climate Change Science Program
1717 PennsylvanIa Ave, tfN, Suite 250,Washinglon, DC 20006. Tel: +1 2022236262
DATE: 19 August 2003

TO: CCSP Interagency Committee
FROM: Richard Moss, Director, Climate Change Science Program Office
RE: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment - U.S. Government review
This document recommends an approach for providing review comments on the Arc c
Climate Impact Assessment currently under preparation by the International Arctic
Science Council, a high-level intergovernmental forum which includes U.S., Canada.
Russia, and the Scandinavian countries. The CCSP Interagency Committee should re iew
this recommendation and reach a decision on it at its next meeting, Thursday, 21 Au st.
1. The Arctic assessment: Sponsorship, purpose, and process
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) is an international project of the Arc c
Council and the International Arctic Science Committee (lASC). The goal of the AC is
to evaluate and synthesize knowledge of the Arctic climate system, increased ultravio et
radiation, and environmental and socio-economic impacts. The USG memberslliaison to
the steering committee are' John Calder of the NOAA Arctic Research Office in Silve
Spring and Karl Erb and Thomas Pyle who are, respectively, the director and head of
Arctic Science in the NSF Office of Polar Programs. The ACIA Secretariat is located
the University of Alaska-Fairbanks.
2. The draft document to be reviewed
The document is long and technical and contains 16 chapters - an introductory chapte
the "Arctic System;" four chapters on Climate and UV Change (e.g., "Arctic Climate
System and its Global Role," "Role of Ozone, Past and Future Changes"); four chapte
on Environmental Impacts (e.g., on terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems); si
chapters on Social and Economic Impacts (e.g., "Wildlife Management and
Conservation," "Forests, Land Management, Agriculture," "Human Health," and
"Infrastructure"); and a concluding chapter on "Assessing Vulnerabilities." An additio
"synthesis" chapter is planned but has not been circulated with this set of technical
chapters.
3. Proposed review process for decision by the CCSP Interagency Committee
The draft assessment has been available for simultaneous international technical expert
peer review (administered through the assessment steering committee and secretariat) d
"national" reviews by the Arctic Council member governments since mid July, and the
deadline for submission of reviews is October I, 2003. It seems that the national revie
can take whatever form a membergovernment wants it to take. Following the revie
document will undergo revision by the authors. A fullyrevised draft will be sent ou
January 2004 for final review by the Arctic Council and its working groups. Theref
the July-September period is the timefor detailed review and comment by the USG.
Jim Mahoney and I have discussed several approaches for the national review. and
propose the following approach for considerationby theCCSP. We suggest that the
CCSP participating agencies make the draft available to their own scientists and ex rts
to review in their individual technical capacities. This seems to be the mosteffective
course of action given the limited time available and the long lead time required for
consolidating an integrated interagency response. Agency scientists who submit
comments must note that they are doing so in their individual capacities as experts.
that their recommendations do not reflect the positions of the US Government.
If a more pro-active response is deemed desirable, the ccsPq could. if requested.

coordinateagency reviews to ensure that each of the chapters is covered by at least on
US expert.
------------ CEQ 013652

ce:
4L-\ 7 ~~
---_.,.~-
Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and TechnolU"gy-'-
Thursday, September 25,2003,10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

Department or Commerce, Rm. 4830
~d;)
11111..• ltvm III \ It,"
I )l'dl-'l"ll t ,,1,1
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1('\.f\t;. 'T
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~ ...."''''0.. . up""'" Assoc. Director Peacock, OMB
1{)·'1f1 ....... VUO>CI ,~ ~}- .~, n.:;s't. Admin. Withee, NOAA
10:45 CCSP Update Ass't, Sec. Mahoney, DOC
11:05 .~~.- UIS Dobriansky, State
11:20 ('{'TP .~ CCTP Dir. Conover, DOE
11 :45 alPartnershlp for the Hydrogen Director OCCP Eule, DOE

Economy and International Energy
Cooperation Task Force
I 1:50 Other Topics and General Discussion Dep. Sec. Bodman, DOC
12:00 Adjourn
E~ nf',<+ '"'-71' of Blu.e.. Boy- j wI', q J OMB pa.5,ba.vk

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----
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000951
-------------~
Earth Observation Elements
1
President's Statement
Prnldenl" 5lato_nt on Earth Observallon Summit

S".. wr""'lnytrW'Prt1l~
t"'lrf"loM<l~ .. ~rt.ll\a+t.,-"y,"~~r~lY-}'.ti1U~
Oe~ S<h1Nl lht- S<.1TIrn~~.i choJf,.t pU.M tQf &:h<tl4"o"'O~.
g.,.. ';bUo\:no:. blatt ~.mCOMr'a'.H..ymnth11'4 ~ 10 veri
""~""'"~t')' .... G-I",..nQ!~<1£~ ft'&"'u "J......
W) M ~ p . " f 1 ~.. 'fdetT\...c~J*»lI~~
~ ~1NU"'"scue-m~~ w~~, ev
r.al,.-o"...ll~Wk"lle~~!;lr",*~~W'j
c'fTl.'llW d"~ In twIl"I' ~ of !hi wortI. 'I'Il't\ld'I.If ~ ut ~ m:tU m::.r.
~~.an.a~~~am~ Ou'~f\
....J ~* \A ~ ~ e'I4 aplbklyto rn4a~.~'"k)r 'MM~
t""~ ~'W'l:tll"\1~tld~~•• ~COoO~~c\"'t.MItd'~
m<lTYl...,t:¥~
Bt\'
The Earth Observation Summit

Washington, DC, .July 31, 2003
Summit represented a high level governmental/political commitment

to move toward a comprehensive, coordinated, global network:
Issued declaration to support this concept
Launched development of 10-year Implementation plan
Established the Group on Earth Observations with US Co-Chalr
EgQ 6fj §lfl!I

EO Summit Declaration
• Affirmed need for timely, quality, long-term, global Information as a basis
for sound decision making.
• Recognized need to support:

1) Comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observation system
or systems;
2) Coordinated effort to address capacity-building needs related to Earth
obs;
3) Exchange of observations In a full and open manner with minimum time
delay and minimum cost; and
4) Preparation ofa 10-year Implementation Plan, building on existing
systems and Initiatives
1) Framework available by Tokyo ministerial conference, May 20 or 21
2) Plan available by Brussels ministerial conference In late 2004.
• Established ad hoc Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to develop Plan
• Invited other governments to join.
Ad Hoc Intergovernmental Group on

Earth Observations (GEO)
• Membership open to all countries
• International organizations are participants
• Organized Into 5 SUbgroups
• Established GEO Secretariat
- - - - - - - - - -............,C·g""Q"""Oi,..
GEO Structure
GEO.
(Folir CO:Ct:lalrs)
Intel'mltJonilfGEO U..,- .~4J~~ts

.,,~~~.,
Secretariat , GEO,Subgl'o\lP
I I I I
In~ltiQl1tl
~m'~~=
Aich"·"· ,." aCi 'BuDdklg
G~$~~
.... ....,.,.
, :
c;d~~ ~~.
Geo'sli~iOup
u.S. Representatives to GEO Subgroups

GEO Architecture Subgroup
• Ivan Deloatch. USGS. U,S. Representative
• Ron Sirk, NASA, Altemate U,S, Representative
• Greg Withee. NOAA. Altemate U,S. Representative
GEO Capacity Bulldlng Subgroup

• Jacqueline Schafer. USAlD. U.S, Representative
• John Jones, NOM, Alternate U.S. Representative
GEO Data UtIlization SUbgroup

• Jack Kelly, NOAA, U.S. Representative
• Gladys Coller. USGS, Altemate U,S, Representative
GEO User Requirements Subgroup

• Gary Foley. EPA, U.S. Representative
• Mary Gant, NlEHSINIH, Altemate U.S. Representative
• Jim Yoder, NSF, A1temate U.S. Representative
GEO International Cooperation Subgroup

Harlan Watson, State, U.S. Representative
Bill Brennan, NOAA, Altemate U.S. Representative
• TBD, USGS, Altemate U.S. Representative
4
---------------
Group on Earth Observation (GEO) • Draft Tasking
Earth Observation Summit·1 July 31
United Stales
• , I I , I
InioalGEO Meeting-Augusl '·2
L~ta,) 0
November 28·29
2004 2005
Agreed Framework Outline
1. Introduction
2. Purpose
3. Benefits/Requirements
4. Elements of Earth observation "system"
5. Architecture for the Future
6. Capacity Building
7. International Cooperation
8. Challenges
e£Q~
-------------
u.s. Plans
Earth Observation Components
U.S.
RequltenwntS
U.S.Agone CENRItriteragency
Program$ I-~ Worl<i~g Group (lWGEO) . . . . .
14agtnclH A4riit, <Ja!lMi. WltlullI
--------------IIJIIICllJlllg-Qm~
Interagency Working Group on Earth
Observations (IWGEO)
• IWGEO reports to the CEN R
• 15 agencies participate as members
• CENR Subcommittee Co-chairs are ex officio members
• Co-chairs
- Ghassem Asrar, NASA
- Cliff Gabriel, OSTP
- Greg Withee, NOAA
• 5 Teams - mirror the GEO sub-qroup structure
• Includes a planning and integration team for

development of the US plan
IWGEO Structure
IWG50
(Co-Chairs) H=~I
r ~nn1l'l9 a Integration Team :
I J
Archltecture User Requirements

Data Utilization & Outr'eacn
Team Team Team
capacitY Building International CooPeration

Team Team
-------------~
n -----
Agency Representatives to IWGEO SubgrC?ups

.,,,~:'.~4::
~·,=',:~···.~
DHS
"Mik. c,;-;;;' "R~ ~I ·'j;;;.u;.';-kl .~rl< ~ii.J-;;;q~..;;;;+.~.c;;;~ .
c;: .
DOC
DOE ~ . E~ . E:""";'" I W_ F~U Wanda F....U .

DOT P.ul Pluno Paul Pinna !
I
EPA O.nl •• Shaw MartinDleu 8UI Sonntag John Lyon GatyFoley John Lyon
HHS Mary Gan! j
NASA
.
Go<iIGii'
J9.!>~_
I Mmhall t DeVon
!?.l!!.l'l!!!:'! .._••_._.,
~i~Tct-T, 1
.:...!'o.!JJ!!!t;~. J
DOD Pltrlcl< Oennta 8n1Cuny i 'W¥fT'O~
C)!Ilt\!!J:>ocbr = ',,-
IMll ......
NSF L•• Jameloo ",••."dra , Louis I3rown
~ p~~'l
Pat.rW\:M
OSTP bam
Slate
F,mando --._-- P _ • .- ~.~- -~~ ,.::.-:=,.. Dan R«t~
Ch~~~on -.,- --- 1 -~- ----.-

~!":~ 1. ... _ . _....
USDA ,
USGS
•
eliot ChllIUan: Plul ~ .. m
_ .. • I .. "
WIlliam ",m.r RouUnd H'Iz~ John Kolmella I E1~ :!'.""~In 1

USAlD Ko BllfTOll , Ko Barrell
Issue
How will the IWGEO take into consideration the

Climate Change Science & Technology Programs?
• Co-chairs of CENR Subcommittee on Global

Change Research are ex officio members of
IWGEO
• Several agency IWGEO team members directly

participate in or are knowledgeable of
CCSP/CCTP
a Participation in user workshops
-----------.........-c~
Earth Observation Summit Participants
Backup Slides
- - - - - - - - - - - -...- .....c ~
Participating Governments
Argentina Kazakhstan
Australia Mexico
Belize Morocco
Brazil Netherlands
Canada New Zealand
China Norway
Denmark Republic of Congo
Egypt Republic of Korea
European Commission Russian Federation
Franca South Africa
Gabon Spain
Germany Sweden
India Switzerland
Ireland Thailand
Israel Ukraine
Italy United KJngdom
Japan United States
Participating International Organizations

Central American Commission for the Environment and Development (SICNCCAO)
Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)
European Space Agency (ESA)
European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satalhtes (EUMETSA1)
Global Climate ObsEllVing System (GCOS)
Global ocean Observing System (GOOS)
Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS)
Integrated Global Observing Strategy Partnership (IGOS-P)
Intergovemmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
International Agency for the Development of Environmental Information (ADIE)
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Intemallonal Geosphere-Siosphere Program (IGSP)
International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA)
Food and AgricUlture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
United Nations Educational, SdentiflC and Cultural Organization (UNE::'f;
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
World Bank (IBRD)
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
World Meteorological Organizatlon (WMO)
10
-------------.~
Post GEO..1 ACTIONS
1, Identify subgroup reprellentatives 10 Rlchard.Ohlemacher@noaa.gov by August 21, 2003.
2, Idenllfy Secretariat representallves to Rlcherd.Ohlemacher@noaa.gov by Augusl 21, 2003.
3. Secretarial 10 Issue drof1terms of reference for each subgroup 10 GEO members and
participants by September 12, 2003,
4. Secretariat begins planning for GED-2 by September 5, 2003.
5. Members provide response on draft terms of reference by September 24, 2003.
6. Secretariat provides annotated draft Fremewor\< euutne, Including Subgroup assignments, to
GEO members and partlclpants by September 24, 2003.
7. SUbgroups begIn work no later than October 1, 2003.
B. Se'cretanat completes draft Introduction and purpose sections of Framewor\< by
October 31, 2003.
9. Draft chapters due to seeretartat from SUbgroups by October 31, 2003.
10. Secretariat to compile and dlstrlbute to members and participants the chapters for first dreft
framewor\< document by November 14, 2003,
11. GED-2 meetlngtn Italy, November 28·29, 2003.
12. Secretariat prepares website and draft briefing package on GEO by October 14, 2003.
11
-------------~
1.- "..-- _
Memorandum
To: Agency Representatives to the Climate Change Science Program

From: Ari Patrinos, Acting Director, ClimateChange ScienceProgram
James R Mahoney, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmospher
Director, Climate Change ScienceProgram
Subject: Coordination of the Climate ChangeScience Program for Fiscal Year 2006
Charge: The Climate Change Science Program released its StrategicPlan July 2003. This pl
lays out a set of priorities for the program as well as criteria for evaluating these priorities. A
agencies begin the process of preparing their budgets for fiscal year 2006, CCSP will develop
recommendations for climate change priorities. The impetus for this activity is theNRC's
recommendation that states "The CCSP should implement the activities described in the str 1:ic
plan with urgency" (A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Ian).
Implementation of the CCSP activities for FY06 will be based upon input from Agency
Representatives, Interagency Working Groups (IWGs), the CCSP Strategic Plan, the final NR
review, Our Changing Planet FY04 and FYOS, and the agency inventories. The emphasis wi be in
identifyinggaps in current funding based on the recommended list of priorities, and setting
measurablemilestones and deliverables which would reflect accountability towardmeeting th
program goals. ,The working assumption is that funding levels will remain flat for FY06.
We anticipate that progress on this interagencyeffort will be reported at the next meeting of e
Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and Technology (IWGCCST)curren ly
scheduled for April 27. The CCSP Office will facilitate this process by coordinating the acti ties
related to this process.
Questions to Agency Principals and IWG's to help in setting the program priorities for
2006
1. Is this the approach the Agency Principals wish to adopt toward setting priorities for
2. What climate change topics will your agency (or working group) focus on or continue
focusing on in FY06? ' .
3. Is funding currently identified for initiating or continuing the work in the topics identi
(2)?
4. Do any of the topics identified in (2) involve other agencies?
5. Are h'-,; any high priority areas in your agency (or working group) which were not
identified in the strategic plan?
6. Which research products do you anticipate your working group will completein FYO
FYO??
7. Can you identify a set of milestones associated with the CCSP deliverables which wi
indicate progress toward completion of the products?
1
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
EQ 014790
1---------------- _
Process: The CC~P Office will C\Ss,~~,'represelltati~esfro~~h~ CCSP participatingageiiCies .

developingFr" 2006, priorities for,research,inonitOl:ing, anddecisionsupPo!t IDitiative~. ,In ,
additi~n, working groups of prQgTak mittuigers and scien~ expeitSwiU develop prop ,
recommendations for'PY06onsjieclf!"elen.ientsof thepj:9gt"!Ull,' ,The.,remutsoftuis,effort : ~
provide.inputfor guidingthe-agency e1im~tebudgetpriorltie,s:'for fiSci!lYedf'20Q6. It~:~ti~ the
CCSPO will provide agency representatives With summaries of thenear-term'CCSppyri~es~'
assessment, research products, and research needs idenrifiedin the strategicplanforbackgro
material. ' " ' , , ,
It is envisioned that the planning process would include: ', . ,

• A half-day meetingof cess 'agency p?ncip.ais.~t: this meetingparticipants will revi', "'.
planning documents (e.g., CCSP strategic plan, and final NRC report) anddevelop the main
objectives to be achieved in,FY06; , , " " ,,', ," , '"
• A requestto the working groupco-chairs for a list of'researcjrpfloritles based on'tli~ 0 erall
objectives identified in the AgencyPrincipll'ls meetffig;" • .' " ,,,',' " ' ','.' ,
• A di8ffingperiod~volving't1ie't~sp Office and agencYrep~ntatiyes.Dt$g,~s
period,the detailed plans ofagencieS',WU1be reviewedand draftte~t.deScril>ing'ol>jec"
will
priorities, and plans be prepared; " , ' , . "" ,', ' '
• A half-daymeeting at Whi9h. the'agency principals will reviewand integrate the dta.fts om..:
on each of the mainprogramareas-into a final report; ", '
.' , A final review period (if possiblejbyall participants,
Action: Each agency is herebyrequested to nominate ~rep~esenta~yeinvolvedin CCSP to

of
with thciCCSPO on the initialdraft i:hepriorlties' doGumeilt. A1so~please provide commen
in.
the criteria and process outlined this memorandiun'to Maigmta C6Dkrigbt Gregg' ',
(MaIgarita.Gregg@noaa.gov) by Monday, Aprll'S. ," ,.
2
. .. : . : ' .
~." -.;; . I "," ,,_,,",
CEQ 014791
of
Process and Timellne for the Development the CCSP FY06 Priorities
Date Action PUrpose Expected Onto It
Wednesday, Memo to Agency Inform agency principals of.draft Comments on'p ocess
Ma',,~h31 P1iricipals . process for setting priorities and for setting FY06
"Coordination of request commentson process and program prioriti ~
the Climate criteria
Change Science
Program for
Fiscal Year 2006"
Monday, Send CCSPO list Facilitate communication between
April 4 of agency CCSPO and agencies
contacts
Monday, Memo to Request for research FY06 List of top topic for
'April 4 Interagency priorities based on guidelines for FY06 from the IWG's
Working Groups setting priorities
Apri14-April 13 .Interactions ' Collation of input received from Draft of CCSP iY06
between CCSPO agency principals and IWG's Topics
and 'agency
representatives
Friday, Draft to Agency Request comments on draft FY06 Comments frorr
April 16 andIWG's program priorities agencies and 1\\ Gs on
draft document bf
priorities
Friday, Meeting of Review of issues and comments Resolution of is ues
Apri123 Agency from all participants on draft
Principals document of priorities
Tuesday, Meeting of Present outline of draft of CCSP Received comn ents
April 27 IWGCCST priorities for FY06 and/or approval for
priorities identi ed
Friday, Memo to Agency Draft of FY06 Priorities Comments and
Apri130 Principals and approval of FY)6
IWG co-chairs document
Monday, Complete initial document of CCSP Priorities for Fiscal Year 2006
May 3
3
., .,~ '.
Background: Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan
CCSP Prioritization (p. 8)

The CCSP Strategic Plan identifies five overarching climate-focused goals with related long- on
researchfoci and near-term deliverables (21 "Synthesis and Assessment Products") as well as our
key approaches: research in 7 core science elements, observations, decision support,and
communications.
The setting of priorities for the program, as described in the Strategic Plan is based on:
1. Research priorities are assessed on an annual basis using multiple information sources
2. Near-term priorities are reflected in the CCRI
3. Initially, the following issues will receive priority
3.1. Three research issues identified by NRC
3.1.1. Atmospheric distributions and effects of aerosols
3.1.2. Climatefeedbacks and sensitivity
3.1.3. Carbon sources and sinks, focusing particularly on North America
3.2. Observing systems and data management
3.3. Decision support resources development
3.4. Communications
CCSP Criteria for Prioritization (p. 8)

1. Scientific or technical quality
2. Relevance to reducing uncertainties and improving decision support tools
3. Track record of consistently good past performance and identified metrics for evalua .
future progress
4. Cost and value
Issuefor discussion: should the criteria and priorities identified in the Strategic Plan be up ated
based on lessons learned since the release ofthe plan.
4
Background: Recommendations from Second NRC Report (February 2004)
The Executive Summary of the National Research Council's review ofthe final U.S. Climate
Change Science Program Strategic Plan lists the following recommendations which should be
considered when setting priorities for FY 2006:
1. The CCSP should implement the activitiesdescribed in the strategic plan with urgency.. (p 1)
2. The CCSP and its parent committees should (1) develop a clear budgetary process linking ks
to agency and program budgets; (2) securethe financial resources, for the present and the
i
that will ensure the overall success of the plan; and (3 considernew approaches to fundin
will enable new initiatives and the shiftingofresources to respond to the nation'sevolvin
needs.( p . l ) · .
3. The CCSP should accelerate efforts in previously underemphasized program elements,

including ecosystems, the water cycle, hUIJl!Ul dimensions, economics, impacts, adaptatio
mitigation, by rapidlystrengthenlng the science plans and institutional support for these
~~. .
4. The CCSP should further develop its decision support activities, making sure to meet the eeds
of local, regional, national, and internationaldecision makers. The synthesis and assessni nt
products should be chosen to explicitly address the range of needs for decision makers an
program management, as well as the broad scope specified in the Global Change Researc Act.
(p.2)
5. CCSP should develop more comprehensive strategies forimplementing and sustaining a obal
Earth observing system and for meeting climate modeling goals; (p.2)
6, CCSP should establish and institutionalize effective management processes that create
accountability for meeting program goals. (p.S)
7. The CCSP should carefully assess the needs in capacity implied by the strategic plan and
address any gaps by coordinating ongoing capacity building efforts at participating agenci s and
initiating new programs as needed. (p.3)
5
, ..
• '.'.' ." • • : 1, '\ •
.,.,...-'-'---'-'-'---'---'-'--"'----'-.:::.:.::.::.;.:;:;..;....;.....~...:----.;---.....l---..,..,.,~"7'I"l'..,.,.,~
Backllround: SummarY of Memorandnm from Snencer Abraham and Donald Evans to lJohn
Marbnrger on Reallocations in FY2005·FY2006 to Support CCSP Goals
In July 2003, John Marburger (OSTP) releaseda Fact Sheet onthe CCSP FY2005-FY2006
Accelerated Research on Global Climate Observations. This fact sheet is summarizedbelow.
Funding will be reallocated from low priorityareas to the following:
Topic Agency FY2005 n~006

($M) (~IM)
Reduce Scientific Uncertaintyof Aerosols DOE 12.5 12.5
NASA 10.0 10.0
NOAA 5.0 5.0
Reduce Scientific Uncertainties of Carbon Sources and NSF 10.0 N.i . -0.0
Sinks and of the Water Cycle NOAA 4.0 4.0
Improve Climate Observing System in the World Ocean NOAA 10.0 10.0
Improve Climate Modeling Systems NSF 5.0 5.0
TOTAL 56.5 46.5
6
. ':'.":'1:..:';, ,". , , ..
'
".' "'
CEQ 014795
Synthesis and Assessment Products
Products Due FY 2006 (WIthin 2 Years)
# Time Frame Topic Agancles Working ( roup
for
Completion
1.1 Within 2 Temperature trends in NOAA (Lead) Climate Var ability
years the lower atmosphere- NASA/OOEINSF (Supporting) and ChangE
steps for understanding Observatlor s
and reconciling
differences.
1.2 Within 2 Past climate variability USGS (Lead) ClimateVsr ability
years and change In the Arctic NSF/NOAA/NASA (Supporting) andChangl
and at high latitudes.
2.1 Within 2 Updating scenarios of DOE (Lead) Atmospheri~

years greenhouse gas NOAA/NASA (Supporting) Cornposhlo0
emissions and Human
concentrations, In Contributior s
collaboration with the Decision Sl pport
CCTP. Review of
Integrated scenario
development and
aoolicatlon.
2.2 Within 2 North American carbon DOEINOM/NASA (Lead) Carbon Cye Ie
years budget and implications USDA/USGS (Supporting)
for the global carbon
cvcle.
3.1 Within 2 Climate models and DOE (Lead) Human
years their uses and NOAAINASA/NSF (Supporting) Contribullo s
limitations, Including Decision SI pport
sensitivity, feedbacks, Climate Va ability
and uncertainty and Chang
analysis. Modeling
4.1 Within 2 Coastal elevation and USGS/EPA/NOAA (Lead) Human

years sensitivity to sea level NASAiOOE (Supporting) Contributio s
rise.
5.1 Within 2 Uses and limitations of NASA (Lead) Human

years observations, data, EPA/NOAAlUSGS/DOElUSOA Contributio s
forecasts, and other (Supp orting) Decision S, pport
projections in declslon ~
support for selected

sectors and regions.
5.2 Within 2 . Best practice NASA (Lead) Decision S pport

years . ..pproaches for NSF/EPA/NOAA/USGSIDOE communlc tions.
characterizing, (Supporting)
communicating, and
incorporating scientific
uncertainty in
decisionmaklng.
7
-<.~ - :',
CEQ 014796
# Time Frame Topic Agencies Working Group
for
Completion
5.3 Within 2 Decision support NOAA(Lead) Decision Su port
fears experiments and NASNEPNUSGS/USAID/DOElUSDA
evaluations using (Supporting)'
seasonal to interannual
forecasts and
observational data.
~'
8
, '
...... _- , ,or, ," ' ' " " -;> ",',

"
"
CEQ 014797
Synthesis and Assessment Products
Products Due FY 2008 (2-4 Years)
# Time Frame Topic Agencies Working :iroup
'for
cemelettcn
1.3 2-4 years Re-analyses of historical NOAAINASA (Lead) Observatio ~s
cnmate data for key DOE (Supporting)
atmospheric features.
Implications for attribution of
causes of observed chance,
2.3 2-4 years Aerosol properties and their NOANNASA (Lead) Atmosphelc
impacts on climate. Composltic n
2.4 2-4 years Trends in emissions of NOANNASA (Lead) Atmosphere

ozone-depleting Composltic n
substances, ozone layer
recovery, and Implications
for ultraviolet radiation
exposure and climate
change.
3.2 2-4 years Climate projections for NOAA (Lead) Modeling

research and assessment NSF/DOE (Supporting)
based on emissions
scenarios developed
through the CCTP.
3.3 2-4 years Climate extremes Including NOAA (Lead) Observatlo ~s

documentation of current NASNUSGS/DOE (Supporting) Climate
extremes. Prospects for Variability nd
improving projections. Change, 0 ~ta
ManaoemE nt
3.4 2-4 yean> Risks of abrupt changes in T8D (Lead) Climate
global climate. NOANUSGS~PND08NSF Variability nd
(Supporting) Change
4.2 2-4 years State-of-know!edge of TBD (Lead) Ecosysterrls

thresholds of change that EPAlNOAAlUSGS/DOE
could lead to discontinuities ' /NSF(Supporting)
(sudden changes) In some
ecosystems and climate-
sensitive resources.
-
4.3 2-4 years Relationship between USGS/USDA (Lead) Ecosysterrls
observed ecosystem EPAINOANNASA/NSF/ USGS/
changes and climate D08USAID (Supporting)
Ch::'~di:l·
4.4 2-4 years Preliminary review of USDA/EPA (Lead) Decision S ~pport

adaptation options for NOANNASNUSGS/D08USAID
climate-sensItive (Supporting)
ecosystems and resources.
'---
9
'. ...... -... ,,--

ChI....! U 14 /~ 8
# Time Frame Topic Agencies Working sreup
for
ComDletion
4.5 2-4 years scen8;ri~based analysis of 'Speclal CCSP rt:lgm~i:structure; O,ecision S pport-
the climatological, topical leads among agencies
environmental; resource, NASNUSGS~PNNOANDOE
technological, and (Supporting)
economic Implications of
different atmospheric
concentrations of
greenhouse gases.
'4.6 2-4 years State-of-the-science of EPA (Lead) Human

socioeconomic and NOANNASAlDOElUSAID Contrlbutlo 1S
environmental Impacts of (Supporting) . Ecosystems
climate variability.
4.7 2-4 years Within the transportation DOT (Lead) Decision S pport
sector, a summary of USGS/DOE (Supporting) .
climate change and
variability sensitivities,
potential Impacts, and
response options.
10
..
, .: 'i';;,·, .;.;:;\;...;0,'>,,:.,' "" ;,:;...., .. ,
, ~,-~ ....... ~
. '.
CEQ 014799
Research Products to be Completed by FY 2006 (= 2 Years)
I
I
Red: research need. Blue: collaboration Green: SUODort
I WG
•
Milestones, Products, and Supportil19 Lead Contact Resources 1
~paYOffS Agencies AgencY Point Identified Unk
,
4,2 4.1 Improved probability forecasts of
regional manifestations of
seasonal climate anomalies
resultiM from ENSO.
4.5 4.2 Establishment of research teams
involving climate and social
scientists and stakeholders in
cltrnate-sensltlve regions to
create focused, user-responsive
partnerships.
4,5 4.3 Increased partnerships with
existing stakeholder support
Institutions, such as state
climatologists, regional climate
centers, agricultural extension
services, resource management
agencies, and state
--
governments to accelerate uses
rl~9:~·!t'w~·
of climate knowled e.
" ., ~J':l~P.!1i ..' ""
,
,' . .
5.1 5.1 In collaboration. with the NASA,NOAA • aBS
Observations element,
development of a integrated
global observing strategy for
water cycle variables, employing
Observational System
Simulation Experiments (OSSE)
as aooroorlate
5.3 5.2 Regional reanalysis providing a
wide range of high resolution,
daily water cycle analysis
products for a 25-year period, for
use in analyzing features absent
in global climate data
assimilation croducts
5.5 5.3 An experimental surface and NOAA OS
subsurface moisture monitoring
product for land resource
management, (e.g. fires or
aariculture)
5.5 5.4 An experimental online decision NOAA,USGS OS
support tool designed to allow
users to C;;':..il1 changed
streamflow conditions
corresponding to various future
climate change scenarios in the
Pacific Northwest
11
Coordination ofthe Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
...... _
.. ..
CEQ 014800
Q# # Milestones, Products, and Supporting , Contact Resources, WG
Pil ofts A encles Point, Identified L1nk~
5.5 5.5 Refinements of web based tools NOM DS
that improve the' communlcatlon,
dlssemlnatlon of the meaning
and reliability of climate/water
'forecasts
Natlo"alland cover database :

that Includes ,attributes-of land
cover and vegetation canopy
characteristics "
6.1 6.2 ConUnued acquisition of global NASA, USGS
calibrated coarse. moderah, and
hlgh~resolution' remotely-sensed
-data
6.1 6.3 Global moderate resolution land NASA CVC
cover database with attributes
required, for' environmental
arametedzatlon
6.1 6.4 Global maps of areas of rapid NASA
land-use, and land-cover change
and location and extent of fires '
6.1 6.5 Quantification of rates of US land USDA,USGS CC,
use, land management WC,'
practices. and land cover change ECO
6.1 6,6 Integrated land-use and land. NASA
cover change detection
strategies and operational
prototypes of detection systems
that enable accurate and cost-
effective detection of local to
lobsI chan es
6.2 6.7 Summary of the histcrice! and USGS, NSF. ECO
contemporary regional driving NPS.
forces of US land use and land
cover chan e - national
6.3 6.8 Single-sector models such as NSF. USDA-
urban, suburban, exurban, and non-CCSP
agriculture and forest lands
rowth
6.3 6.9 Identification and integration of
components of land-use and
land-cover change models -
re ional
6.3 6.10 Develop regional. national. and eve,
global land-use and land-cover WC,
change projection models, CC,
Incorporating advances in our ECO,
understandIn of drivers HC
12
. 'i. "
Q# #, Milestones, Products, and , C~!1tact Resources WG "
Pa ofts, ' Point Id'entifled Lhik1
6.4 6.11 ,Analysis of existing databases
arid thedries about climate:'
reiated processes that affect '
l~ri9 use,P1ange, incluqirlg ,
utlCEirtain anal sis '
6.4, 6.12 Evaluatlon'ofhow.thetype and, NASA. USGS. cve
distribotion':of lana'cover affects NOAA
regional weather and cJimate~'
attarns '
6.5' Report ,on,th~ social. economlc, NSF.NASA, ECO,
and ecological impl'!~ of ' ,USGS, USDA HC
urbanization on 6tfier land uses
'Improved me~h()doI9glas;for ' ';

carbon source andslrik " .
'acco\Jntfn'gh1 a'grlCtiltUfe, ahd
forest '
7.1 7.2, Prototype Stateof the Carbon USDA. DOE,.. ' os
Cycle Reportfocused on North NASA, USGS;
America ' NSF,NOAA',
NIST
7.4 7.3 US contribution to an USDA, DOE,
Intemationaicarbon observing NASA. USGS,
system, including carbon NSF. NOAA, '
,storage, fluxes,' and ' NIST
complementary envlronmental
data - on'oln' " , ',',
Data from field experimfln~ ,

quantifyingaboveground ,~nd
belowgroundeffectS of elevated
C02 concentration in
combination with elevated 03
concentration on tile structure'
and functioning of agricultural..
forest. and a uatic seas terns .
Improve our understandingof

how human societies drive'
lobal environmental chan e
9.2 Elevation maps depleting areas
vulnerable tc :>.,<> level rise and
planning maps depleting how
state and local govem~ents
could res and to sea level rise
13
, "
, ,"
, ",1, . ': \
2
"
Q# # Milestones, Products, and Supporting Lead .: Contact Resources, WG

Payoffs Agencfes . AgencY Point Identified Link; ,
9.3 9.3 Facilitate interactions among
researchers and relevant
declstonmakere and
stakeholders; provide
educational opportunities for
U.S. students and faculty;
increase understanding of the
types of information needed by
, declsionmakers
14
Coordination ofthe Climate Change Science Program for, Fiscal Year 2006
..
, , '>,.'. ,':.. :.>i';~;\::: ,c':' ; :, "

" ;(:,' :C"
,::.;.':,,:,:. ! ••.. i- .:; ~ :.~ .. " '."
';:',: ' ,":: "'~" .
C.b(.! U 14803
March 25,2004
MEMORANDUM
To: Dr. James R. Mahoney,

Director, Climate Change Science Program, and
Dr. Patrinos,
Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program
From: Lou Brown, ChairCCSP Working Group on International Research and

Cooperation (WGIIRC)
Subject: Recommendations for the FY2004 Distributed Costs Budget: Intemation

Activities
It is requested that the Climate Change Scie~ce Program (CCSP) Principals augment th
funding recommended fo~ International Activities by the Financial Operation Group
(FOG) to bring the overall CCSP funding for these Activities to the level recommended
earlier to the Principals by the WGIIRC. The Working Group recommended an
allocation of$I,878~OOO for these activities; the FOG has since recommended (based 0
the FOG recommendations that I received today) that a smaller amount of funds be
provided $1,454,563. .
Thus the augmentation now being requested is approximately $420,000.
The Working Group conducted a comprehensive and thoughtful analysis of the requests
that had been presented to the CCSP for continued support of the efforts of the
international global change research and research-related activities of the major
international global change research programs. The Working Group concluded these to
be largely reasonable requests that provide substantial benefits for U.S. global change
research,benefits that far outweigh the small overall investment we are being asked to
make. However the Working Group did recommend on the basis of our analysis,
reductions for a few of these activities.
The augmented funding requested includes initial support for two new activities the Ea
System Science Partnership (ESSP) and the Global Environmental Change and Food
Systems (GECAFS) program. The Principals are asked to endorse CCSP support for
'~lese two activities. B;:;t..1 of these activities represent in large part efforts by the
international global change research programs to first assure more effective integration f
international global change research e.g., between the natural and the social sciences,
and, second, support research that in addition to improving understanding of Earth
system processes, can contribute more effectively than in the past to the policy-making
process. It is my belief that both of these objectives are responsive to goals of the U.S
Recommendations for the FY2004 Distributed Costs Budget: International Activities
.' .. ,.:,-, " .' ",l ,", • .,".
o
Climate ChangeScience Program,especially' as presented ~.the "StrategicPlanfor this
Program. The Executive Directors of theInternational global change research programs
provided information on both the ESS!> arid GECAFS' to the Principals in lars January;
andthe Working Group providedadditional infomm.tion withits recommendations to th
Principals. Ail. unfavorable CCSPresponse to' theserelatively smallfundingrequests .:
could in my view. discourage the IGBP, WCRP, IHDPand Diversitas from pursuing .
further efforts to develop new joint programs for which they consider U.S. scientists an
financial leadership essential. . ' .
Pleaselet me know if the Working Group can assist youfurther in addressing the issues
that we have raised. I expect to be back in the officenext Tuesday, 30 March. .
Recommendations for the FY2004 Distributed Costs Budget: International Activities
:i...... ;;...'. ..•.. , \." " ,I '_ :;'i\ ..' ';':, ;... ,., _"
CEQ014811
Observations Working Group
TERMS OF·REFERENCe*
The Observations Working Group (OWG) is a standing committee that supports the U.S. Climate Chan e
Science Program (CCSP), which incorporates the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and e
Climate Change Research Initiative (CCR!). The purpose of the Working Group is to support and assist e
CCSP Principals by providing a forum for discussion and development of strategies to design, coordina e
and implement an integrated observational, monitoring, and data management system to meet the goals f
the cCSP Strategic Plan. The OWG will consider the comprehensive observational system needed to me t
climate science requirements, and strategies developed will be relative to the comprehensive clima
observational system, not only to those portions covered by the CCSP budget.
The Working Group will report directly to the CCSPPrincipals for guidance and direction related to i
activities. It will work closely with the other working groups as appropriate and will be supported by
CCSP Office.
Oyerarohing Goal~
The goal of the CCSP is-to provide active stewardship for an observational system that will:
1. document the evolving state of the climate system; .
2. allow for improved understanding oeits
changes; and
3. contribute to improved predictive capability for society.
OWG Objectives
In particular, the working group will coordinate development of strategies to:

1. design, develop; deploy, integrate and sustain the climate observational components of a
comprehensive earth observing system;
2. develop and demonstrate new technology for the innovation ofnew observations;
3. accelerate the development and deployment of observing and monitoring elements needed for
decision support;
4. integrate modeling requirements with the observing system;
S. coordinate the management of observing system components with an effective interagency
structure;
6. provide data and information in a timely and seamless manner with a management and distributio
system that employs interoperability and standards, and
7. foster international cooperation that contributes to a more robust global climate observing system.
Membership
All agencies participating in the CCSP should be represented on the Working Group. In addition, agencie
or departments engaged in observational activities relevant to the CCSP may be represented. The Workln
Group will also establish a number of sub-groups to address specific observational, monitoring, and/or dl;\
management issues. Membership in the sub-groups will be open to agency representatives of CC
science working groups, representatives of other interagency organizations, and, when appropriate, exte I
experts will participate in the Working Group. The Working Group is Co-Chaired by two working grou
members from two agencies appointed by the CCSP Principals.
Meeting and Reporting Schedule

The Working Group will meet as necessary to address observing issues. The Co-Chairs will provid
updates and briefings to the CCSP Principals as appropriate. Agenda, minutes, and other records will b
maintained by the CCSP Office.
Version 2 of original TOR which was proposed to the CCSP Principals January 2004
" . ,.; .
4.3: UNDERSTAND CLIMATE, AND ASSESS, ADAPT TO, AND MITIGATE
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
The Earth environmentis a dynamic system undergoing continuous change 01' seasonal,
annual, and longer timesca1es. Many scientific observations indicate that the Earth may n w
be undergoing a period of more rapid change on these time scales, when comparedto the
historical record. Scientific evidence suggests that a complex interplay of natural and h
. related forces may explain this recentlyobserved climate variability.
4.3.1: USERREQUIREMENTS
To understand, adapt to, and mitigate such changes, a climate observing system must:
Improve knowledge of Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its
natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability an
changes;
Improve quantification of forces bringing about changes in Earth's climateand related
systems;
Reduce uncertainty in projections of how Earth's climate system may changein future
Understand the sensitivity and adaptabilityof different natural and managedecosyst s
and human systems to climate and related global changes;
Explore the uses and identify the limits ofevolvingknowledge to manage risks and
opportunities related to climate variability and change.
4.3.2: DEPLOYED OBSERVING CAPABILITIES AND COMMONALITIES

Development of space-based and in situ global observing capabilities was a primary focus
U.S. efforts in the previous decade. Several new Earth-observing satellites, in situ networ ,
reference sites, and process studies are now producing unprecedented high-qualitydata t
have led to major new insights about the earth-climate system. The United States is alread
contributing to the development and operation of several global observing systems. These
systems provide a baseline Earth observingsystem and include: NASA, NOAAand USG
earth-observing satellites; the global component of the Integrated Ocean Observing Syste
the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) sponsored by the World Meteorological
Organization; the Global Ocean Observing System (GODS) sponsored by the
Intergovernmental Oceanography. A current inventory of U.S. systems contributing to glo
climate observing can be found in the U.S. Detailed National Report on Systematic
Observations for Climate [August 2001, see http://www.eis.noaa.gov/gcos/soc_long.pdf].
4.3.3: MAJOR GAPS AND CHALLENGES

Baseline observations, databases, and modeling analyses that must be extended and
observational "gaps" to be filled include:
Develop and improve inventories of global emissions of methane (CH4), CO, and NO
Develop a paleoclimatic database to evaluate climate models.
Monitor drought based on improved measurements of precipitation, soil moisture, and
runoff.
Test and improve parameterizations for clouls and precipitation processes.
Complete global coverage by the ocean networks for measuring sea level and ocean he 1.
IWGEO Annotated Outline for Chapter 4.3
CEQ 014821
Develop global high-resolution satellite land-cover databases.
Observe global fluxes of C02, between air and sea, within the oceans, and from land t
ocean.
Define requirementsfor ecosystem observations to monitor changes and quantify
feedbacks.
Provide data quantifying above and belowground effects of elevated C02 and 03.
Depict geographic extent of human impacts on the environment.
Produce elevation maps depicting areas vulnerable to sea level rise.
4.3.4: PARTNERSHIPS INTERAGENC\1INTERNATIONAL/COMMERCIAL
The United States and International partners coordinate the implementation of the Climate
Variability and Change strategic vision. Our Changing Planet FY 2003 illustrates the broa
inter-agency involvementof a cross-section of relevant U.S. federal agencies, coordinated at
U.S. cabinet level. U.S. CLIVAR has in place a nucleus of scientific and programmatic
elements, and strong linkages with the weather prediction community will advance
capabilities to address issues of high societal relevance. The cadre of regional climate ceo
and state climatologists help ensure that regional and user expertise is represented in the
development ofeffective frameworks for making climate information available. Intematio I
research programs such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and its proje ts
Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), StratosphericProcesses and their Role'
Climate (S.pARC), Climate and Cryosphere (CliC), the Global Energy and Water Cycle
Experiment (GEWEX), as well as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IG
are critical for developing global infrastructure. GCOS bas fostered the integration of key
elements The lGOS Partnership (IGOS-P) focuses specificallyon the observations in
providing information for decision-making. The implementation panels of the Joint
WMOIIOCTechnical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology are
particularly well positioned to deploy and sustain the in situ ocean networks.
4.3.5: CAPACITY BUILDING
4.3.5.1: INCREASING U.S. CAPABILITIES

A primary objective of the CCSP is to develop information and scientific capacity needed
sharpen qualitative and quantitative understanding through interconnected observations, ta
assimilation, and modeling activities. The program will address the potential for future
changes in extreme events and uncertainty regarding potentialrapid climate change. The •
CCSP will build on existing U.S. strengths in climate research and modeling, and enhance
capacity for development of high-end coupled climate and Earth system models.
Enhancements in the.observational system will focus on the related distributions of aeroso s,
clouds, ~.7:,' :,,:,.infall; on closing the 1::"!'J~~ts of carbon and nitrogen; and on determining cru ial
climate feedbacks, especially in the sensitive Arctic and Antarctic climatic regions.
4.3.5.2: U.S. BUILDING CAPACITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Capacity building from the US and other developed countries to meet the needs of the
developing world will continue to be critical. Networks to measure atmospheric constituen
have contributed a global database of important information on greenhouse gases. The
EQ 0148 2
oceanographic community las successfully engaged coastal nations to participate in
observing. International programs addressing terrestrial processes have demonstrated si
successes in observing ecosystems. The United States can contribute further by evaluatin
existing networks' capability to 'meet established climate requirements; improving exis .
networks through direct contributions to internationalprograms; forming partnerships wi
other developed countries to make directed investments to meet developing country .
inadequacies: providing direct assistance through U.S. programs of aid to specific develo ing
country activities; and continuing to expand collaborative international scientific pro
that address critical climate variables.:
Modeling research is required to improve simulations of seasonal-to-interannual variabili

global models used for climate projections and to apply these models to improve seaso
interannual climate predictions. Access to model products, predictions, and tailored valu
added products/information must be provided to the decision-making community to fo
on
progress in utilizing prediction capabilities. Efforts should be focused key regions or
phenomena that may be especially vulnerable or contribute most strongly to abrupt clima
change, such as the tropics, the Arctic andAntareticregions,and,theoeeanthermohaline
circulation. Continuing development of ensemble-based approaches will be essential in 0
to improve probability estimates ofextreme events. .
4.3.6: FuTuRE EO SYSTEMS - NOT YEl'DEPLOYED

Future Earth observing systems will learn from, leverage, and extend the current observi
capacity, summarized in Appendix 12.1 of the Climate Change Science Program Strategi
Plan (CCSP, 2003-
h :llwww.cHmatescience. ovlLib Istra lan2003lfinal1ccs stra lan2003·cha 12.h
The CC$P Strategic Plan is a framework to address some of the most complex questions
problems ilia t the United States and the world now face. The issue of climate variability
change, the level and affects of potential human contributions to these issues and how w
adapt and manage these impending forces is a capstone issue for our generation and tbos to
follow. This plan addresses these challenges by leveraging existing knowledge to learn n w
things, building bridges across communities, and scientific disciplines to gain greater insi t,
reaching out to decision-makers to calibrate knowledge with action, and maintaining an en
and transparent process to ensure that our partners are heard and we are hearing them.
4.3.7: RECOMMENDATIONS
Reduce uncertainty about the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs), emissions
aerosols and their precursors, and their climate effects
Determine North American and oceanic carbon sources and sinks; the impact of land-use
change and resource management practices on carbon sources and sinks; project future
marine carbon sinks; and the global distribution of carbon sources and sinks and how the are
changing
., ,.. '-',~
CEQ 014823
Determine cycling of nutrients such as nitrogen and how these nutrients interact with the
carbon cycle; key processes that link ecosystems with climate; and options for managing
agricultural lands, forests, and other ecosystems '
Identify potential effects of climate variability and change on human health and welfare
Address processes affecting the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer from reduced 0
levels observed in recent decades; the properties and, distributions of greenhouse gases an
aerosols; long-range transport of pollutants and implications for regional air quality
Identify trends in the intensity of the water cycle determine the causes of these changes;
predict precipitation and evaporation on timescales of months to years and longer; and m
physical/biological and socioeconomic' processes tofacilitate efficient water resources
management
Identify and quantify, the human drivers of land-useand land-coverchange; improve

monitoring, measuring, and mapping of land use.and iand cover, and themanagement of
data; and develop projections of land-coverandland-usechange under various scenarios
climate, demographic, economic" and technological trends
Complete global coverage of the oceans with moored, drifting, and ship-based networks.
Enhance short-term focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties to support informed pu lie
review of adaptation ani mitigation strategies ' ,
Enhance modeling capacity to accelerate incorporation of new knowledge into comprehe sive
climate models and develop model products for decision support
Enhance observations and data management systems to generate a comprehensive set of

variables needed for climate-related research
, -
• 1, • .....
,.;
CEQ 014824
Suggested topic for NRC study proposal to CCSP
Background:
1. The NRC currently has two ad hoc studies underway for the CCSP, both due for comple
CY 2004: (1) Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate; and (2) Metrics for Documenting Pro
in Global Change Research.
2. The CCSP has not yet authorized the NRC to spend funds that have already been provide to
the NRC (in FY 2003) to support additional studies.
3. CCSP tabled this issue at its December meeting. An action item from the meeting was to
request that representatives from the agencies meet to discuss possible topics. Representati s
from DOE, NASA, EPA, NSF, and CCSPO met during an open meeting on January 23 and
discussed four candidate topics: scenario development and application; adaptive capacity;
uncertainty; and ecosystems. Following the meeting, individuals drafted several short
descriptions of these possible studies. A fifth topic focused on assessment processes was
recommended earlier by the NRC.
4. The Acting CCSP Director consulted with Dr. Mahoney and other CCSP representatives d
is suggesting that the program request the NRC submit a proposal for a study on the topic
described below.
5. Comments on this description are requested at the CCSP meeting. The NRC has been w ting
for word from the program on this request for some time, and they would like to discuss it a
their next meeting, 8-9 April.
Strengths and Limitations of Climate Change Assessment Processes:
The CCSP Strategic Plan indicates that the Program will guide implementation of future de ision
support activities, including synthesis and assessment products, through evaluation of the
"lessons learned" from previous assessments and other decision support case studies. Beca
the importance of assessments in the CCSP, and because the scientific community is inves .
very significant amounts of time in conducting assessments, it is timely to evaluate the stre s
and weaknesses of scientifically based environmental assessment processes and the value 0 the
end products. CCSP requests that the NRC submit a proposal for a study to identify lessons
learned from a number of previous assessments, examining both the processes and products to
identify their strengths and weaknesses and gauge their value and usefulness.
Many climate and global change assessments have been completed in the last 15 years, bo
domestically and internationally. These include, as key examples, the periodic scientific
assessments of ozone depletion prepared under the Montreal Protocol, the periodic assessm nts
prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the U.S. National Assess ent
of the Potential Consequences of Climate Change supported by the U.S. Global Change
Research Program. The ozone assessments, the IPee assessments, and the U.S. National
Assessment have each involved more than a thousand scientists as authors, contributors, an
', "
reviewers, Assessments now consume a greatdeal of academic and federal researchers' time,
particularly in the United States. The of
optimal composition assessment participants and the
scopeand frequency of assessments needed to effectively answerpolicy questions should be
evaluated to determinehow best to utilize scientificexpertisewithout overburdening the
community. "
Policyand management decisions are made even as needed research continues, Assessments
have a key ongoing role to play in bridging the arenasof scientific research and decisio " g.
Assessments must develop a broad and well-developed array of options for decisionmakersto
consider. This will require strengtheningthe interaction between: researchers conducting'
assessments and the potential users of assessment products. This study is intended to help
assessments create more usable information. '
The study will'examinethe key components required to make assessments successful by

analyzing and comparing different aspects of various pastassessmerits, includingframing;
assessment design and. drafting; communication from research to decision making; and utility ln
decision making. The study should examine various past national{both US and non-US) and
international climate-relatedassessments. '
, ~ ..;..' ;,.' ,~ "~' ..' ~ . . , ';';-

. ",', .
CEQ 014826
Draft CIWG Implementation Plan
July 26, 2004
CIWG will serve as a resource to agencies and working groups to improve

communications coordination and integration.
1. Serve as a Resource for Agencies and Working Groups *

A. Provide services such as document management, facilitation of
stakeholder engagement, and web support
B. Provide products such as general information/graphics
C. Facilitate communication, coordination and integration (CIWG, working
groups, agencies)
II. Production Assistance

A. Synthesis and assessment products
B. Additional products (CCSPO, working groups, agencies)
C. Basic CCSP and climate change information (derived from approved
products such as Strategic Plan and OCP)
I. description of CCSP, including agency research information and
CCTP
2. basic climate change science information
III. Develop and Manage Communications Infrastructure

A. Web sites
I. CCSPO site development and management
2. site integration
a. . CCSPO and working groups web sites
b. agency web sites
B. Document services
I. provide development, review and production assistance
2. document distribution
N. Seize Unexpected Opportunities
*identify and work with liaisons from each working group
Note: address branding/logo issues
CEQ 015613
August 20, 2004
Goal: crwG will serve as a resource to agencies and working groups to improve
communications coordination and integration.
Strategies:
• Identify and work with liaisons from each working group

• Provide services such as document management, facilitation of stakeholder
engagement, and Web support
• Provide products such as general information/graphics
• Facilitate communication, coordination and integration (CIWG, working
groups, agencies)
Specific Activities:
I. Product Coordination and Development

A. Synthesis and assessment products
(Kent to provide info)
B. Additional products
1. Our Changing Planet: the crwG will provide a summary of
communications activities and products to the CCSPO for
inclusion in the FY 2006 Our Changing Planet, This section
will include a report on communications and outreach activities
completed as well as those activities planned for the following
year.
2. Maj~r_~l~~~t~ ~~~I!&e)~~~gs_: J:~~s~ _v.:i!1}9~'!S_ qI! ~r~~~-~g~~cy -l....:D:....:e:....:let~ed:.:;;...:;:;.m --'
research efforts with stakeholder engagement, when possible.
The approach will be to capitalize on those research areas where
. an existing event is already scheduled or has taken place. The
goal will be to address one topic per quarter. These may include
such products and activities as a fact sheet, press briefing or
media roundtable, speakers. Possible topics include: ecosystems,
land coverlland use, carbon cycle (NACP), water cycle, arctic
programs, and temperature trends (based on the first prospectus).
3. QP.!e!y~~r!c!nJtgr9!:!2 9~~l!I!1~I!~: p~epare sqm!J1unications - 1.....o_e_1eted
__ :0 --'
materials in support of documents developed by CCSP working

groups such as workshop reports and research plans.
Communications materials could include, for example, press
releases, email aunouucements. and web reSOlU"ces. (probably
need to add some wording here, suggestions?).
CEQ 015696
C. Basic CCSP information, These products will consist of short (1.2 page)
summaries taken from existing reviewed and approved documents, such as
Our Changing Planet and the Strategic Plan. Part of the product
development will include a standardized "look and feel" that will be used
in future products .. Products to be completed over a 3-month period, from
date of implementation plan approval. Products include overviews of the
following: CCSP, Strategic Plan, funding, synthesis & assessment
products, research elements/agency activities
D. Outreach materials on climate change science fundamentals. These

will borrow heavily on material already produced by the CCSP and
member agencies, the NRC, and the IPCC. Products will include FAQs
and educational fact sheets.
II. Develop and Manage Communications Infrastructure

A. Web sites
1. Update and improve interagency Web sites
2. Develop and implement systematic approach to promoting CCSP
Web sites and encouraging links from other sites
3. Develop and implement system that expedites flow ofCCSP
documents to the Web
4. Establish and build browser-based link management system to
strengthen links among CCSP interagency and agency websites,
and to increase traffic to those sites
5. Develop suite of Web tools to facilitate interagency working
group communications
6. Establish online image gallery to facilitate sharing of illustrations
7. Improve system for responding to public comments and
questions with emphasis on quick responses to questions
submitted via GCRIG's "Ask Dr. Global Change"
1. review and production assistance
C. Dissemination networks (such as email distribution list for CCSP

information and information on conferences/workshops/symposia)
1. Conference presence: CCSP will be represented by its
constituent agencies at trade shows, conference symposia, and
other similar functions. While CCSPO may not have resources
to attend, representation is essential to establishing a coherent
and recognizable corporate identity. To accomplish this, CCSP
will ask agencies with long-established pretences at these events
to put forward CCSP messages and to identify their affiliation
with CCSP. This will be done visually (in booth space with
CCSP materials, as they are developed) and/or contextually (in
CEQ 015697
presentations, lectures, posters or other means to illustrate the
overarching objectives offederally funded climate science).
Ideally, CCSP will be represented at major global change related
trade events, with additional events added each year.
2. Climate News clipping coordination: the crwG will explore
options for sharing and disseminating climate-related news
clippings within and between CCSP agencies. It will determine
what agencies are already distributing climate related news
clippings, draw together best practices for preparation, and
investigate opportunities for streamlining efforts. The crwG will
also look into the viability of developing a searchable database of
climate-related news clippings available to the CIWG and other
CCSP working groups.
3. Calendar/Template: each agency will provide information about
current and upcoming events that may provide opportunities for
cross-agency communications efforts. These templates will be
posted on the crwG website and updated monthly one-week
prior to each CIWG meeting. They will be used as a basis for a
variety of purposes, including identifying research topics (see
IB2), information sharing, and discussion during CIWG
meetings. (attach excel spread sheet)
III. Seize Unexpected Opportunities (we should have some examples/ideas here)
IV. Approval Process • ---1Formatted: Bullets and Numbering)

Suggest we elaborate what is already in tI1e terms of reference. "Decisions will be • - - - Formatted: Heading 4, Indent: Left:
made by grOUP consensus, and confirmed by the Principals (as described iIi the 0.5", Nobullets ornumbering
approved implementation plan)."
.. ---i Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
LEvaluation-Produce periodic and annual summary reports evaluating
communications efforts, documenting progress and describing near-term
objectives. .
Note: we may want to include a timeline/worksheet for all activities (such as microsoft
project).=Qood idea!
CEQ 015698
Draft CIWO Implementation Plan
September 8, 2004
Goal: CIWG will support agencies and working groups by facilitating the development
of communications products and coordinating communications activities.
Strategies:
• Identify and work with liaisons. from each working group

• Provide products such as general information/graphics
• Facilitate communication, coordination and integration (between and among
CIWG, working groups and agencies)
• Coordinate messages, language and outreach (including media) among CCSP
agencies' on climate-related topics.
Approval Process: In accordance with the CIWG terms of reference, decisions will be
made by consensus of CIWG members, and all products involving public communication
activities or deliverables will be confirmed by the CCSP Principals. Product approval will .
be as follows:
• Concept approval-Each product will receive concept approval upon obtaining
approval by both the CIWG (with input from each member's agencies) and
the Principals. Specific products are submitted for concept approval as part of
this implementation plan and are identified in the attached spreadsheet.
Additional products will be submitted conceptually first to the CIWG then
submitted to the Principals for approval.
• Product approval-Each product will be approved by the CIWG (with input
from each member's agencies), then submitted to the Principals for approval.
The final draft, reflecting comments by the Principals, will be submitted to the
CCSP Director for final approval and public release.
Roles and Responsibilities: (To be added, Katie to draft)
Specific Activities: (see attached spreadsheet for deliverables timeline)
1. Develop and Manage Communications Infrastructure

A. Web sites '
2. Develop and implement systematic approach to promoting GCSP
3. Develop and implement system that expedites flow ofCCSP
CEQ 015882
4. Establish and build browser-based link. management system to
and to increase traffic to those sites
submitted via GCRIO's "Ask Dr. Global Change"
C. Dissemination networks (such as email distribution list for CCSP

will ask agencies with a long-established presence at these events
overarching objectives of federally funded climate science).
Ideally, cesp will be represented at major global change related
2. Climate News clipping coordination: the CIWG will explore
clippings within and between cesp agencies. It will determine
climate-related news clippings available to the erwG and other
3. Calendar/Template: each agency will provide information about
current arid upcoming events that may provide opportunities for
posted on the CIWG website and updated monthly one-week
prior to each eIWG meeting. They will be used for a variety of
purposes, including identifying research topics (see ffi2),
information sharing, and discussion during CIWG meetings.
(attach excel spreadsheet)
CEQ 015883
II. Product Coordination and Development
A. Basic CCSP information: these products will consist of short (1-2 page)
in future products. Products to be completed over a 3-month period, from
products, research elements/agency activities.
B. Our Changing Planet: the CIWG will provide a summary of
communications activities and products to the CCSPO for inclusion in the
FY 2006 Our Changing Planet. This section will include a report on
communications and outreach activities completed as well as those
activities planned for the following year.
C. Climate change science fundamentals: these outreach products will
borrow heavily on material already produced by the CCSP and member
agencies, the NRC, and the lPCC. Products may include FAQs and
educational fact sheets.
D. Synthesis and assessment products: the crwG will assist in producing
associated communications and outreach materials.
E. Quarterly research highlights: these will focus on highlighting cross-
agency research efforts. The approach will be to capitalize on those
research areas where an existing event is already scheduled or has taken
place. The goal will be to address one topic per quarter. These may
include such products and activities as a fact sheet, press briefing or media
roundtable, and speakers. Stakeholder engagement will be sought, when
possible. Possible topics include: ecosystems, land cover/land use, carbon
cycle (NACP), water cycle, arctic programs, and temperature trends
(based on the first prospectus).
F. CCSP working group documents: the CIWG will assist the working
groups in producing outreach materials in conjunction with the release of
research products such as: press releases, summaries, web resources, and
materials developed for specific audiences
m. Evaluation
A. Produce periodic and annual summary reports evaluating .
objectives.
CEQ 015884
Draft CIWO Implementation Plan
September J.1,_ ~QQ1_ .: ~ ~ - -f__D_el_et_ed_:8 --'
Goal: CIWG will support agencies and working groups by facilitating the development
of communications products and coordinating communications activities.
Strategies:
• Identify and work with liaisons from each working group

• Provide products such as general informationlgraphics
• Facilitate communication, coordination and integration (between and among
CIWG, working groups and agencies)
• Coordinate messages, language and outreach (including media) among CCSP
agencies on climate-related topics.
made by consensus of CIWG members, and all products involving public communication
activities or deliverables will be confirmed by the CCSP Principals. Product approval will
be as follows:
• Concept approval-each product and activity identified in this implementation
plan will receive concept approval upon final acceptance ofthis plan by the
CIWG and CCSP Principals. Any additional products will be submitted
conceptually first to the CIWa then submitted to the Principals for approval.
• Product approval-each product will be submitted in draft to the CIWG (with
inputfrom each member's agencies). Once approved, it will be submitted to
the Principals for approval. The final draft, reflecting comments by the
Principals, will be submitted to the CCSP Director for final approval and
public release.
Roles and Responsibilities: lJt.e C1WG is C01I}t!J'!.·sed"o(CCSP a~el!.G1'-,ee'.:.e.-sentatjves. ~ ~ -1 Deleted: (To be IUlded, Katie /q draft)
supported by CCSPO staff: Agency representatives have decision-making responsibilities.
When requested by the CIWG, CCSPO staffprovide support and resources to implement
the decisions made by the CIWG, including those activities outlined in this
implementation plan. The CCSP agency representatives will provide guidance on
communications infrastructure and product development, access to agency expertise and
other resources in support ofthese activities, and coordination between agency and
CCSP on communications activities.
Specific Activities: (see attached spreadsheet for deliverables timeline)
I. Develop and Manage Communications Infrastructure

A. Web sites
CEQ 015963
2. Develop and implement systematic approach to promoting CCSP
3. Develop and implement system that expedites flow of CCSP
4. Establish and build browser-based link management system to
and to increase traffic to those sites .
submitted via GCRIO's "Ask Dr. Global Change"
C. Dissemination networks (such as email distribution listfor CCSP

will ask agencies with a long-established presence at these events
overarching objectives offederally funded climate science).
Ideally, CCSP will be represented at major global change related
2. Climate News clipping coordination: the crwG will explore
clippings within and between CCSP agencies. It will determine
climate-related news clippings available to the crwG and other
3. CalendarlTemplate: each agency will provide information about
current and upcoming events that may provide opportunities for
posted on the crwG website and updated monthly one-week
CEQ 015964
prior to each CIWG meeting. They will be used for a variety of
purposes, including identifying research topics (see ffi2),
information sharing, and discussion during CIWG meetings.
(attach excel spreadsheet)
II. Product Coordination and Development
B. Our ChangingPlanet: the CIWG will provide a summary of
communications activities and products to the CCSPO for inclusion in the
FY 2006 Our Changing Planet. This section will include a report on
communications and outreach activities completed as well as those
activities planned for the following year.
C. Climate change science fundamentals: these outreach products will
borrow heavily on material already produced by the CCSP and member
agencies, the NRC, and the IPCC. Products may include FAQs and
educational fact sheets. '
D. Synthesis and assessment products: the CIWG will assist in producing
associated communications and outreach materials.
E. Quarterly research highlights: these will focus on highlighting cross-
agency research efforts. The approach will be to capitalize on those
research areas where an existing event is already scheduled or has taken
place. The goal will be to address one topic per quarter. These may
include such products and activities as a fact sheet, press briefing or media
roundtable, and speakers. Stakeholder engagement will be sought, when
. possible. Possible topics include: ecosystems, land coverlland use, carbon
cycle (NACP), water cycle, arctic programs, and temperature trends
(based on the first prospectus).
F. CCSP working group documents: the CIWG will assist the working
groups in producing outreach materials in conjunction with 'the release of
research products such as: press releases, summaries, web resources, and
inaterials developed for specific audiences
III. Evaluation
A. Produce periodic and annual summary reports evaluating
objectives.
CEQ 015965
September 20, 2004
Mission: [To facilitate two-way communication between the Climate Change Science
Program (eCSp), the media, stakeholders and the general public.]
Strategy: The crwG will provide support to CCSP, its participating agencies and
working groups on matters of communication, including the development and
coordination of communications infrastructure, products and activities.
Roles and Responsibilities: [The CIWG is comprised ofcesp agency representatives,

supported by cespo staff. The CIWG will recommend communication products and
activities to the CCSP Principals, CCSPO, and cesp. CCSPO staff will provide support
and resources to implement the approved recommendations ofthe CIWG, including the
activities outlined in this implementation plan. The production ofthese materials and
execution ofthe activities listed are contingent upon ecsp having the appropriate
resources and personnel to carry out these functions.]
made by consensus ofCIWG members, and all products involving public communication
activities or deliverables will be confirmed by the CCSP Principals. Product approval will
be as follows:
• Concept approval-each newproduct and activity identified in this
implementation plan will receive concept approval upon final 'acceptance of
this plan by the CIWG and CCSP Principals. Any additional products will be
submitted as concepts to the CIWG then to the Principals for approval.
• Product approval-each draft product will be reviewed by the CIWG (with
input from each member's agencies). Once approved by the CIWG, it will be
submitted to the Principals for approval. The final draft, reflecting comments
by the Principals, will be submitted to the CCSP Director for final approval
and public release.
Functions: crwG has identified the following functions, related products and activities
as key areas of focus for meeting its stated mission and goal. The crwG will initiate
programs, activities and products in these areas aimed at the effective implementation
and coordination of communications activities for' CCSP.
1. Media Relations - communicating to this critically important group on matters

relating to climate science. Products and activities include:
A. Development and review of media strategies, communications plans, press
releases, talking points, Q&As and other materials as required for
upcoming CCSP announcements
B. Upcoming products and activities of significance to media:
1. Draft Prospectuses for Synthesis and Assessment Products
2. FY2006 Our Changing Planet
CEQ 015994
3. Program announcements and Research highlights
II. Public Outreach - providing materials and developing methods for public
outreach on issues related to climate science and the activities and products of
CCSP. These outreach activities should emphasize links to CCSP to help establish
a recognizable program identity. Specifically, CIWG will help develop materials
and strategies to reach out to these audiences through various mechanisms,
including:
Our Changing Planet and the Strategic Plan. Part ofthe product
B. Climate change science fundamentals: the CIWG will review existing
climate change science information materials and evaluate the need for
additional products. Products on climate change science fundamentals
may include FAQs and educational fact sheets. Any proposed products
will require concept approval and will borrow heavily on material already
produced by the CCSP and member agencies, the NRC, and the IPCC.
C. Quarterly research highlights: these will focus on highlighting cross-
agency research efforts. The approach will be to capitalize on research
areas where an existing event is already scheduled or has taken place. The
goal will be to address one topic per quarter through fact sheets and other
outreach materials. Stakeholder' engagement will be sought, when feasible.
Possible topics include: ecosystems, land cover/land use, carbon cycle
(NACP), water cycle, arctic programs, and temperature trends (based on
the first prospectus).
D. CCSP working group documents: the CIWG, through liaisons with the
working groups will assist in producing outreach materials in conjunction
with the release of research products.
E. Science conferences and briefings: the CIWG will identify opportunities
for outreach to .specific audiences through constituent briefings, exhibits at
science conferences, and placing CCSP speakers on panels. CCSP will be
represented by its constituent agencies or the CCSPO at conference
symposia and other similar functions, when possible. The CIWG will
encourage agencies with a long-established presence at these events to put
forward CCSP messages and identify their affiliation with CCSP.
CEQ 015995
III. Web sites- Integrating, updating and improving the usability of the interagency
Web sites, recognizing they are essential public communication and outreach
tools.
A. Develop and implement systematic approach to promoting CCSP Web
sites and encouraging links from other sites.
B. Develop and implement system that expedites flow of CCSP documents to
the Web.
C. Establish and build browser-based link management system to strengthen
links among CCSP interagency and agency web sites, and to increase
traffic to those sites.
D. Develop suite of Web tools to facilitate interagency working group
communications.
E. Establish online image gallery to facilitate sharing of illustrations.
F. Improve system for responding to public comments and questions with
emphasis on quick responses to questions submitted via GeRIO's ."Ask
Dr. Global Change".
IV. Internal Communications - facilitate coordination and dissemination of

·information across CCSP, its working groups and participating agencies on issues
of climate science. The CIWG will develop the mechanisms to allow for a steady
and seamless flow of information, including:
A. Climate news clipping coordination: the CIWG will explore options for
sharing and disseminating climate-related news clippings among CCSP
agencies. Best practices will be identified from those agencies already
providing this type of service and investigate opportunities for
streamlining efforts. The CIWG will look into developing a searchable
database of climate-related news available to the CIWG and other CCSP
working groups..
B. Events template: each agency will provide information about current and
upcoming events that may provide opportunities for cross-agency
communications efforts. These templates will be posted on the CIWG
Web site and updated monthly one-week prior to each CIWG meeting.
They will be used for a variety ofpurposes, including identifying research
topics for quarterly highlights (ITC), information sharing, discussion
during CIWG meetings, and posting to the public Web sites (see
accompanying spreadsheet).
CEQ 015996
V. Evaluation and Reporting
A. Evaluation criteria will be identified prior to implementing any new
communications activities or products, such that the effectiveness of each
activity/product can be easily assessed.
B. The CIWG will provide a summary of communications activities and
products to the CCSPO for inclusion in the FY2006 Our Changing Planet.
This section will include a report on communications and outreach
activities completed as well as those activities planned for the following
year.
CEQ 015997
CCSP Communications Interagency Working Group (C
2 Draft Terms of Reference
3 For CCSP Principals review
4
5
6 General Description
7
8 The Communications Interagency Working Group (CIWG) is a standing committee of
9 U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), which incorporates the U.S. Global
10 Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Climate Change Research Initiative
II (CCRI). The purpose of the CIWG is to ensure an effective and credible communicatio s
12 program to meet the goals of the CCSP Strategic Plan.
13
14 The CIWG reports directly to the Principal Representatives to the CCSP (Principals) for
15 guidance and approval of its activities. It works closely with CCSP
16 Agencies/Departments and liaisons from the Executive Office of the President (EOP)
17 participating in the CCSP, with other CCSP working groups, and with other related
18 programs. It is supported by the CCSP Office.
19
20 Goal
21
22 The goal of the CIWG, as outlined in the Strategic Plan is to support the development 0
23 a program that effectively communicates climate change science information to
24 stakeholders in the United States and throughout the world by:
25
26 • Objectively and credibly reporting relevant aspects of scientific findings
27 • Disseminating results of CCSP activities
28 • Making scientific information and products easily available and in formats
29 suitable to a diverse set of audiences
30
31 To accomplish this goal, the CIWG will encourage openness and transparency in two-
32 way communications with stakeholders through on-going dialogue.
33
34 Activities
35
36 In support of this goal, the CIWG, with assistance from the CCSPO, will carry out the
37 following activities: ~
38
39 • Hold regular meetings of CIWG members to coordinate existing
40 communications efforts and plan additional interagency communications
41 activities consistent with the goals and objectives of the CCSP strategic plan
42 • Assist in the dissemination of CCSP' s products, including assisting with
43 reviews of draft and final work products by stakeholder communities
44 • Develop and advance a strategy for enhancing, interconnecting, and
45 promoting the content of the Web sites operated or supported by CCSP-
46 participating agencies
o :1069
1 • Develop outreach materials using formats such as FAQs, poster displays,
2 videos and educational fact sheets
3 • Support existing outreach activities and develop additional initiatives as
4 agreed to be necessary, including:
5 I. Conducting or sponsoring briefings, lectures and press conferences
6 2. Supplying information for Congressional testimony or to respond to
8
7 Congressional inquiries
3. Supporting museum exhibits and other public displays
I
I
9 4. Providing credible and relevant content for K-12 audiences and
10 education activities
II
12 In undertaking these activities, the CIWG will:
13
14 • Collaborate across agencies to assist with existing communications efforts
15 • ' Provide resources to implement approved CIWG initiatives, leveraging
16 ongoing agency activities and resources
17 • Work closely with other CCSP interagency working groups
18 • Communicate through existing professional, civic, and other organizations,
19 both at the national and international level, and through the news media, to
20 leverage information dissemination capabilities
21 • Coordinate with the Climate Change Technology Program, when appropriate
22
23 The CIWG will prepare a l-year communications implementation plan which will
24 include specific communications materials and activities, specific benchmarks and time
25 tables; resource requirements and assigned responsibilities as well as the approval proce s
26 for each product. The implementation plan will be reviewed by relevant substantive
27 working groups. The CCSP Principals will review and approve the implementation pi
28
29 Membership and Decision-making
30
31 EOP Offices and all Agencies participating in the CCSP will designate a CIWG
32 representative(s) appointed by their CCSP Principal. An alternate CIWG representative( )
33 from each agency may be designated by either their Principal or primary
34 representative(s). The responsibilities of each CIWG member include attending CIWG
35 meetings, regularly updating their CCSP Principal on CIWG activities, and serving to
36 foster two-way communication between the CIWG and their agency. , I
37
38 The CIWG may establish sub-groups to work on specific issues. Membership in the sub-
39 groups may include representatives of the other CCSP working groups, other agency
40 representatives, and, when appropriate, external stakeholders. A CIWG liaison will be
41 designated from each working group.
42
43 The CIWG will have two Co-Chairs selected from among the CIWG members and
44 approved by the Principals. Co-Chairs will serve a one-year term of office. The
45 responsibilities of the Co-chairs are to conduct CIWG meetings, coordinate CIWG
46 activities, and regularly update the CCSP Office Director.
2
1
2 Internal working group decisions will be made by group consensus. Decisions invol
3 public communication activities or deliverables will be confirmed by the Principals.
4
5 Meeting and Reporting Schedule
6
7 The CIWG will meet regularly. The Co-Chairs will provide updates and briefings to th
8 CCSP Principals, as appropriate. The CCSP Office will maintain agenda, minutes, and
9 other records.
10
II November 10, 2004 draft
- · · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -.......-----'-----CEQ 0160
1 CCSP PRINCIPALS MEETING
2 Summary of Decisions/Actions and Discussion
3
4 December 1, 2004
5 10:00 a.m, - 12:00 noon
6 Climate Change Science Program Office
7 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 250
8
9
10 Attendance
11.
12 James Mahoney, NOAA, Chair
13 Ghassem Asrar, NASA
14 Mitchell Baer, DOE
15 Ronald Birk, NASA
16 Karrigan Bork, DOT
17 William Breed, USAID
18 Margaret Cavanaugh, NSF
19 Mary Cleave, NASA
20 Margarita Conkright, NOAA
21 David Dokken, CCSPO
22 Jerry Elwood, DOE
23 William Farneth, DOS
24 Mary Glackin, NOAA
25 David Goodrich, NOAA
26 Bryan Hannegan, CEQ
27 William Hohenstein, USDA
28 Jack Kaye, NASA
29 Richard Moss, CCSPO
30 Patrick Neale, SI
31 Kathryn Parker, EPA
32 Rick Petty, DOE
33 Rick Piltz, CCSPO
34 Joel Scheraga, EPA
35 Peter Schultz, CCSPO
36 Michael Slimak, EPA
37 Nick Sundt, CCSPO
38 Ahsha Tribble, NOAA
39 Harlan Watson, DOS
40
CEQ 016164
1 DECISIONS AND ACTIONS
2 CCSP Principals Meeting, December 1, 2004
3
DECISIONS
Agenda Description
Item #
5 $17SK from the escrow approved for use by the NRC to continue the activities of
its standing committees until a full proposal for those activities is received and
approved.
11 Future CCSP meetings will generally be held on the first Wednesday of every
month from 3 to 5 PM. The next meeting will be from 3 to 5 PM on January 5,
2005 at CCSPO.
4
5
ACTIONS
Agenda Description Due Responsible
Item # Date Personts)
2.i CCSPO will email the Principals the final Mahoney / Moss
12.08.04
Synthesis and Assessment guidelines within a
few days of the meeting.
2.ii Fourprospecti (2.1, 2.2, 3.1, and 4.7) will be 12.22.04 Moss
released for public review.
2.iii CCSPO will compile information on revised 12.31.04 CCSPO
completion dates for all products originally
slated for completion within two-years.
2.iv Agencies should review the list of S&A lead 12.17.04 CCSP Principals
and supporting personnel and send any
corrections to Peter Schultz by December 17,
2004
3.i CCSP Principals should review the revised 12.17.04 CCSP Principals
OCP production schedule and send comments
to Peter Schultz by December 17,2004.
3.ii IWGs should make every effort to meet the new IWG Co-Chairs via
OCP production schedule. CCSP Principals
6. CCSPO will request that Agencies estimate and 12.08.04 Mahoney.
report on their "directly related" program
budgets at the ne~t Principals meeting.
7. CCSP Principals should review the 12.22:04 CCSP Principals
Communication .iV, j's Terms of Reference and
Implementation Plan and send comments to
Peter Schultz by December 22, 2004. The
Terms of Reference, Implementation Plan, and
nominations for CIWG Co-Chairs will be acted
on at the January Principals meeting.
6
CEQ 016165
1
2 DISCUSSION SUMMARY
3
4
5 1. Decisions!Actions from October 13 CCSP Meeting (Mahoney) (Approval)
6 [Documentation: 1. Principals Meeting Decisions 10-13-04]
7
8 Decision 1: October 13, 2004 decisions and actions approved without amendment.
9
10
11 2. Synthesis and Assessment Products (Mahoney, Moss) (Discussion)
12 [Documentation: 2. S&A Leads, contact info, 11-08-04]
13 a, S&A Products Guidelines update (Information)
14 b. S&A Products status report - near-term plan to release prospectuses (Information)
15
16 Mahoney noted that the Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) guidelines will be released
17 shortly to the CCSP. Moss reported that work on S&A Product 1.1 (temperature trends)
18 has continued, and that four prospecti are nearly ready to be released for public review:
19 2.1 (scenarios), 2.2 (SOCCR), 3.1 (climate models), and 4.7 (transportation). Prospecti
20 for Products 5.1 (decision support for selected sectors and regions) and 5.3 (decision
21 support using short-term climate information) will soon be ready for CCSP review. He
22 indicated that it will be necessary to update the schedules for preparation of the products,
23 and that CCSPO will contact the relevant lead agencies regarding realistic completion
24 dates. CCSP Principals will need to decide how to approach public release of this new
25 information.
26
27 Action 2.i.: CCSPO will distribute the Synthesis and Assessment guidelines to the
28 Principals.
29 Action 2.ii: Four prospecti will be released for public review.
30 Action 2.iii: CCSPO will compile information on revised completion dates for all
31 products originally slated for completion within two-years
. 32 Action 2.iv: Agencies should review the list of lead and supporting personnel and send
th
33 any corrections to Peter Schultz (pschultz@usgcrp.gov) by December 17 for distribution
34 at the next CCSP meeting.
35
36
37 3. Our Changing Planet (Mahoney). Update on process for preparing FY2006 OCP
38 (Information)
39 [Documentation: Revised OCP 06 production schedule.]
40
41 Mahoney discussed the proposed revision to the FY06 OCP production schedule, which
42 delays the release by approximately 1 month. This will still allow the report to be
43 released in conjunction with the President's budget. However, the schedule cannot slip
44 further. It was noted that only four IWGs have submitted complete first drafts, four others
45 have submitted a partial set of materials, and a few IWGs have submitted nothing. Moss
46 thanked the IWGs that met the the initial deadline. Discussion focused on the need to
CEQ 016166
1 revise the draft during review to ensure consistency with the revised budgets that
2 incorporate OMB input.
3
4 Action 3.i.: CCSP Principals should review the revised schedule and send comments to
5 Peter Schultz (pschultz@usgcrp.gov) by December 17.
6
7
8 4. FY2006 Crosscut Budget Analysis (Mahoney) (Discussion)
9 [Documentation: 4. Crosscut budget analysis memo]
10
11 The version distributed for the meeting does not contain FY06 data. Mahoney noted that
12 the cross-cut budget will be used in discussions at a Deputy Secretary level and the
13 upcoming issue of Our Changing Planet.
14
15
16 5. NRC-CCSP Interactions (Asrar, Mahoney)
17 a. Approved terms of reference for long-term NRC advice to CCSP (Information)
18 [Documentation: 5a. CCSP interest in NRC advice 11-18-04]
19 b. NRC standing committee support to CCSP (Decision on first increment of annual
20 support) [Documentation: 5b. FOG Memo to Mahoney 11-23-04]
21 c. Study of climate assessment processes (Discussion, with decision at January
22 Principals meeting) [Documentation: 5c. NRC Assessment Study summary 11-23-04]
23
24 a. Asrar reported significant progress in establishing the working relationship with the
25 National Academies and that the National Academies have participated enthusiastically
26 in a dialogue with CCSP in order to provide the CCSP with needed information. The type
27 of advice to be provided over the next three years is summarized in the document on
28 long-term NRC advice to CCSP. The NRC is developing a specific proposal that
29 responds to this document. Mahoney thanked Asrar for chairing the dialogue process
30 with the NRC. Concerns were raised regarding the budgetary implications of the
31 agreement and the need to subsequently approve support for the NRC's standing
32 committees and for the proposed comparative study of assessment processes. Mahoney
33 reviewed the history ofCCSPIUSGCRP support for the NRC and indicated that the spirit
34 of the current dialogue was to reduce overall costs and use resources efficiently.
35
36 b. The NRC currently has over $lM in escrow pending approval of studies and activities
37 to support CCSP. They are requesting permission to use $175K of this to continue their
38 standing activities until a full proposal has been approved. The Financial Operations
39 Group reviewed this request and recommended approving it.
40
41 Decision 5: $175K from the escrow approved for use by the NRC to continue the
42 activities of its standing committees until a full proposal for those activities is received
43 and approved.
44
45 c. Mahoney invited discussion on the NRC prospectus for a comparative study of climate
46 assessment processes. During discussion, the question was raised whether the proposed
CEQ 016167
1 study had been overtaken by events. Mahoney commented that there may be significant
2 challenges as we move ahead with actually producing the S&A products and Moss noted
3 that such a study would be a tangible follow-up to CCSP's commitment to a "lessons
4 learned" approach in its decision support activities. Several voiced support for the study
5 and indicated a desire to work closely with the NRC in preparing the study. Mahoney
6 indicated that a proposal will be circulated to CCSP for decision in the context of
7 consideration of the NRC proposal.
8
9
10 6. Financial Operations (Spence, Mahoney)
11 a.. Review of ad hoc panel ("Leinen committee") recommendations (Information)
12 [Documentation: 6a. Leinen Panel Report]
13 b. FY2005 budget request (pending with FOG) (Information)
14 c. Resolution of accounts in arrears (Information)
. 15
16 Mahoney described the context for the Leinen Committee report and briefly reviewed its
17 contents. He noted that the decision to base agency contributions to distributed costs was
18 not intended to increase the distributed cost budget but to reapportion the burden among
19 agencies to better reflect the size of agency budgets. The Leinen memo recommended the
20 new formula for agency assessments, which includes "directly related" costs, be
21 implemented during FY05.
22
23 Action 6: CCSPO will request that Agencies estimate and report on their "directly
24 related" program budgets at the next Principals meeting.
25
26
27 7. Communications (Mahoney, Parker). Draft Communications Interagency Working
28 Group Terms of Reference and FY2005 Implementation Plan (Discussion, with decision
29 at January Principals meeting)
30 [Documentation: 7. Comm IWG, TOR draft, 11-10-04; 7. Comm IWG, Implementation
31 Plan draft, 11-10-04]
32
33 Parker outlined the extensive the efforts of the Communications IWG (CIWG) to draft a
34 Terms of Reference and FY05 Implementation Plan. She encouraged the Principals to
35 give higher priority to communications activities, requested review of the draft
36 documents, and requested CCSP approval for the CIWG recommendation that she and
37 Keya Chaterjee (NASA) serve as co-chairs of the group. Mahoney concurred regarding
38 the importance of communications and clarified that the draft Terms of Reference call for
39 the CCSP Principals to approve new communications products. He also noted that
40 CCSP's communication activities will generally not be rapid-turnaround in nature.
41
42 Questions were raised regarding funding for activities in the CIWG's Implementation
43 Plan. Moss noted that the CCSPO does not have additional funds to implement the
44 IWG's plans and stressed that "the CCSP coordinates and the agencies implement."
45
CEQ 016168
1 Action 7: CCSP Principals should review the Communication IWG's Terms of
2 Reference and Implementation Plan and send comments to Peter Schultz
3 (pschultz@usgcrp.gov) by December 22. The Terms of Reference, Implementation Plan,
4 and nominations for CIWG Co-Chairs will be acted on at the January Principals meeting.
5
6
7 8. Proposed CCSP Specialty Workshop in 2005 (Mahoney). (Discussion, with
8 decision at January Principals meeting)
9
10 Mahoney tabled a proposal for a CCSP workshop in Autumn 2005 to focus on: (1)
11 discussion of the ongoing S&A products; (2) dialogue with stakeholders regarding the
12 decision-support activities described in the Strategic Plan. The need for this workshop
13 arises in part from the fact that the CCSP doesn't currently have a mechanism for input
14 from the community. It will likely be held in autumn 2005. A modest registration fee may
15 be required along with agency funding. This item will be raised again for decision at the
16 January meeting.
17
18
19 9. Responses to the Letter from Representative Udall (OSTP) (Information)
20
21 Mahoney described the status of the response to this set of questions, which is being .
22 handled by OSTP. Agency-wide review of the responses will occur shortly.
23
24
25 10. COP-10 Update (Tribble). Update on agency plans for Buenos Aires (Information)
26
27 NOAA is playing a lead role in the U.S. exhibits at the event. The first week will focus
28 on U.S. activities; the second week will focus on international activities.
29
30
31 11. Establish Standard Monthly Date for Principals Meeting (Decision)
32
33 Decision 11: Future CCSP meetings will generally be held on the ftrst Wednesday of .
34 every month from 3 to 5 PM. The next meeting will be from 3 to 5 PM on January 5,
35 2005 at CCSPO.
36
37
38 Meeting adjourned.
CEQ 016169
DRAFT
crwG Implementation Plan
Calendar Year 2005
For CCSP Principals review
December 23.2005
Mission: To facilitate effective communication of climate change science information,

activities and products between Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) agencies, and
to the media, stakeholders and the general public, as described in the CCSP Strategic
Plan.
Strategy: The eIWG will provide support to CCSP, its participating agencies and
working groups on matters of communication, including the development and
coordination of communications infrastructure, products and activities.
Roles and Responsibilities: The eIWG will recommend communication products and
activities to the CCSP Principals and participate in the development of these
communication products. As with other CCSP working groups, CIWG representatives
will leverage activities and resources of participating agencies to implement
communications initiatives approved by the CCSP Principals, including those outlined in
this implementation plan. CIWG will provide the CCSP Principals with a statement of
resources that are needed to carry out this plan. .
Approval Process: Product approval will be consistent with the CIWG Terms of
Reference and with the established cesp guidelines and protocols as follows:
• Concept approval: Each new product and activity identified in this
implementation plan will receive concept approval upon final acceptance of
this plan by the CIWG and CCSP Principals. Any additional products will be
submitted as concepts to the CIWG then to' the Principals for approval.
• Product approval: Each draft product will be reviewed by the CIWG (with
input from each member's agencies). Once approved by the CIWG, it will be
submitted to the Principals for approval. The final draft, reflecting comments
by the Principals, will be submitted to the CCSP Director and the Executive
Secretary of the IWGCCST for final approval and public release.
Functions: eIWG has identified the following functions, related products and activities
as key areac of focus for meeting its stated mission and goal for the coming year. The
CIWG will initiate programs, activities and products in these areas aimed at the effective
implementation and coordination of communications activities for CCSP.
CIWG Imp Plan 12-23-04
CEQ 016210
1. Media Relations - when requested by the CCSP Director, assisting in
communicating on matters relating to climate science. Products and activities may
include:
A. Development and review of media strategies, communications plans, press
releases, talking points, Q&As and other materials as required for
upcoming CCSP announcements
B. Upcoming products and activities of significance to media:
1. Draft Prospectuses for Synthesis and Assessment Products
2. FY2006 Our Changing Planet
3. Program announcements and Research highlights
. II. Public Outreach - developing materials and methods for public outreach on issues
related to climate science and the activities and products ofCCSP. These outreach
activities should emphasize links to CCSP to help establish a recognizable
program identity. CIWG will facilitate coordination of CCSP agency
communication activities that involve similar climate science topics. CIWG will
help develop materials and strategies to reach out to key audiences through
various mechanisms, including:
B. Climate change science fundamentals: the CIWG will review existing
climate change science information materials and evaluate the need for
additional products. Products on climate change science fundamentals
may include FAQs and educational fact sheets. Any proposed products
will require concept approval from the crwG and CCSP Principals, and
will borrow heavily on material already produced by the CCSP and
member agencies, the NRC, and the IPCC.
C. Quarterly featured topics: these will focus on highlighting cross-agency
research efforts. The approach will be to capitalize on research areas
where an existing event is already scheduled or has taken place. The goal
will be to address one topic per quarter through fact sheets and other .
outreach materials. Stakeholder engagement will be sought, when feasible.
Possible topics include: ecosystems, land cover/land use, carbon cycle
(NACP), water cycle, arctic programs, and temperature trends (based on
the first prospectus).
D. CCSP working group documents: the crwG, through liaisons with the
working groups will assist in producing outreach materials in conjunction
with the release of research products.
E. Science conferences and briefings: the crwG will identify opportunities
for outreach to specific audiences through constituent briefings, exhibits at
CIWG Imp Plan 12-23-04 2
CEQ 016211
science conferences, and placing CCSP speakers on panels. CCSP will be
represented by its constituent agencies or the CCSPO at conference
symposia and other similar functions, when possible. The crwG will
encourage agencies with a long-established presence at these events to put
forward CCSP messages and identify their affiliation with CCSP.
Ill, Web Sites. Develop and advance a strategy for improving, integrating, and
promoting the content of Web sites operated or supported by CCSP and its
participating agencies recognizing that the sites are essential communication and
outreach tools. Any recommendations for substantial changes in web site format,
linkages, and coverage shall be approved by the CCSP Principals before
implementation. Ongoing, day-to-day oversight of CCSPO web activities will be
provided by the CCSPO Director.
IV. Evaluation and Reporting
A. Evaluation criteria will be identified prior to implementing any new

communications activities or products, such that the effectiveness of each
activity/product can be assessed. .
B. The crwG will provide a summary of communications activities and
products to the CCSPO for inclusion in the FY2006 Our Changing Planet.
This section will include a report on communications and outreach
activities completed as well as those activities planned for the following
year.
CIWG Imp Plan 12-23-04 3
CEQ 016212
..
Cooney, Phil
From: ccspjnfo-bounces@usgcrp.gov on behalf of Peter Schultz [pschultz@usgcrp.gov]

Sent: Friday, March 11, 2005 5:22 PM
To:' ccsp@usgcrp.gov
Cc: ccspjnfo@usgcrp.gov
Subject: [ccspjnfo] Decisions & Actions, CCSP mIg, 03-02-05
Attachments: Decisions & Actions 03-02-05.pdf
Ttl
Decisions & Actions
03-02-05.p...
Attached is a summary of the decisions, actions, and discussion from the 2
March 2005 CCSP principals meeting. It will be an item for discussion and approval at the
next principals meeting, which will take place on Wednesday, April 6 at 2:30 PM at CCSPO.
Cheers,
Peter
Peter A. Schultz, Ph.D.

Associate Director for Science Integration Climate Change Science Program Office
(Incorporating the u.s. Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research
Initiative)
1717 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 250
Email: pschultz@usgcrp.gov
Telephone: 202.419.3479
Fax: 202.223.3065
001837
CEQ 016292
I CCSP PRINCIPALS MEETING
2 Summary of Decisions/Actions and Discussion
3
4 2 March 2005
5 2:30 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.
6 Climate Change Science Program Office
7 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 250
8
9
10 Attendance
1I
12 James Mahoney, NOAA, Chair
13 David Allen, CCSPO
14 James Andrews, DOD
15 Ko Barrett, USAID
16 Karrigan Bark (tel.), DOT
17 Lou Brown, NSF
18 Mary Cleave, NASA
19 Margarita Conkright-Gregg, NOAA
20 David Dokken, CCSPO
21 Jerry Elwood, DOE
22 William Farneth, DOS
23 David Halpern, OSTP
24 Bryan Hannegan (tel.), CEQ
25 William Hohenstein, USDA
26 Jack Kaye, NASA
27 Chet Koblinsky, NOAA
28 Nicholas Lancaster, USGS
29 Margaret Leinen, NSF
30 Thomas Mampilly (tel.), HHS
31 Margaret McCalla, NOAA
32 Richard Moss, CCSPO
33 Patrick Neale (teL), SI
34 Rick Petty, DOE
-35 Gloria Rapalee, CCSPO
36 Peter Schultz, CCSPO "
37 Mike Slimak, EPA

38 Tom Spence, NSF
39 Ahsha Tribble, NOAA
40
CEQ 016293
1 DECISIONS AND ACTIONS
2 CCSP Principals Meeting, 2 March 2005
3
DECISIONS
Agenda Description
ltem#
2 The 2 February 2005 Decisions and Actions Summarv was approved.
4 The draft General Terms ofReference for Interagency Working Groups was
approved in principle.
7 50% of the CCSPO Director's salary will be added to the CCSPO funding request
for FY05. 100% will be included in future years. Funding for other agency
detailees will not be provided through the distributed cost budget.
4
ACTIONS
Agenda Description Dne Date Responsible
ltem# Person(s) / Group
4 The draft General Terms ofReference for 03.16.05 Schultz
Interagency Working Groups will be revised
in accordance with the comments from the
Principals. The revised document will be
distributed to the IWG Co-Chairs for their
review and comment.
6.i All CCSP agencies will seek detailees to ASAP CCSP agencies
serve at CCSPO.
6.ii Dr. Mahoney and CCSPO will issue a 03.16.05 Mahoney and
description of CCSPO staffing needs to assist CCSPO
agencies in identifying appropriate detailees.
7.i Dr. Mahoney will contact Dr. Evans 03.30.05 Mahoney
regarding SI's contribution to the CCSP
distributed cost budget.
7.ii Drs. Mahoney and Tribble will continue to 03.30.05 Mahoney and
attempt to resolve the HHS arrears issue and Tribble
may consult with Dr. Halpern, if necessarv.
9 Dr. Glackin will invite representatives of ASAP Glackin
other CCSP agencies to serve on the .'
workshop steering committee.
CEQ 016294
1 DISCUSSION SUMMARY
2
3 1. Agency Update - NOAA (Kaye) (Information)
4
5 Jack Kaye described the NASA vision, mission, and goals. He outlined NASA's
6 transformed and streamlined organizational structure and how it is continuing to evolve.
7 He also described the substantial contributions that NASA's observations, research, and
8 applications activities make to CCSP. Kaye's PowerPoint briefing file <NASA-
9 CCSPMar2005.ppt> [15 MB] may be accessed via the password-protected CCSP
10 repository:
11 http://www.usgcrp.gov/files
12 usemame = ccsp-info
13 password = XtraXtra
14 Kaye offered to give extended versions of this briefing to other agencies. James Mahoney
15 thanked Kaye and noted that NASA's sense of scientific vision should be embraced by
16 CCSP.
17
18
19 2. Decisions!Actions from February 2, 2005 CCSP Meeting (Mahoney) (Approval)
20 [Materials: 2. Decisions & Actions, 02-02-05.pdf]
21
22 Decision 2: The 2 February 2005 Decisions and Actions Summary was approved.
23
24
25 3. Our Changing Planet (Mahoney, Moss, Conkright) (Information)
26 Update on preparation of FY2006 OCP
27
28 Mahoney noted that Rick Piltz, who has facilitated production of Our Changing Planet
29 (OCP), has elected to resign from his position with CCSPO. Mahoney acknowledged
30 Piltz's long and outstanding service. His departure places strain on CCSPO to facilitate
31 production of OCP. Richard Moss reported that OCP has been delayed somewhat, but
32 that it may be possible to have an approved draft by May. Complete drafts of all OCP
33 chapters now exist. Once revisions have been made by the IWGs on their chapters, a
34 complete OCP draft will be prepared. This draft will be reviewed by EOP. A complete
35 draft will subsequently be sent to CCSP agencies and IWGs for technical review. The
36 revision and approval process will conclude with a clearance review.
37
38 Margarita Conkright-Gregg reported that nearly all of the necessary budget information
39 has been compiled for OCP. NASA said that they require additional time to finalize their
40 budget. Mahoney said that we may need to use the best estimate from NASA and
41 "asterisk it" to indicate that the NASA numbers are not final. Mahoney also called
42 attention to the item in the FY06 President's Budget Analysis that will require formal
43 tracking of CCSP deliverables (pg. 65 of OMB 's Analytical Perspectives on the FY 2006
44 budget).
45
CEQ 016295
1 Mahoney noted the large amount of work required to produce OCP as well as the
2 elaborate process associated with the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) products.
3 The purpose of OCP is to serve as a rationale for the annual budget. It should not be
4 viewed as the "final word" on the scienceof climate change. He said that, in the future,
5 CCSP should consider reducing the technical detail of the report. The focus for assessing
6 the science should be with the S&A products.
7
8
9 4. Interagency Working Groups (Mahoney, Moss, Schultz) (Decision)
10 Functions of the CCSP Interagency Working Groups. Development ofa general
11 Terms of Reference.
12 [Materials: 4. IWG, General TOR, draft.pdfj
13
14 Mahoney noted that the Interagency Working Groups (IWGs) have not had clear
15 guidance on how they should operate. The draft General Terms ofReference ("4. IWG,
16 General TOR, draft.pdf") is a key step toward providing such guidance. It is intended to
17 promote a degree of consistency across the IWGs and to help ensure that the CCSP's key
18 objectives are met. Once it has been reviewed/revised in consultation with the IWG Co-
19 Chairs and approved by the Principals, IWGs will be asked to revise their existing TORs
20 to be consistent with this document. .
21
22 The Principals made several comments on the draft General Terms ofReference that will
23 be incorporated in the revised version that will be submitted to the IWG Co-Chairs.
24 These revisions pertain to the following issues: qualifications and authority of IWG
25 members; responsibilities of support staff; lengthening Co-Chairs' terms; lWG purpose;
26 IWG involvement in Synthesis and Assessment reports; IWG funding; IWG decision
27 making; the differing applicability of the General Terms ofReference to the research
28 lWGs, the Communications lWG, and the FOG; termination of IWGs; and copy editing
29 the General Terms ofReference.
30
31 Decision 4: The draft General Terms ofReference for Interagency Working Groups was
32 approved in principle.
33
34 Action 4: The draft General Terms ofReference for Interagency Working Groups will be
35 revised in accordance with the comments from the Principals. The revised document will
36 be distributed to the IWG Co-Chairs for their review and comment.
37
38
39 5. NRC-CCSP interactions (Mahoney) (Discussion)
40
41 Mahoney said that there is general agreement on the need for the NRC's CCSP Advisory
42 Committee and the NRC's special study on assessments. CCSP is still in discussion with
43 the NRC on the role of its topical committees. CCSP has requested that the NRC seek
44 ways of increasing the responsiveness of the Climate Research Committee and
45 Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change to CCSP needs. Mahoney noted
46 that these committees provide the program with an important window on relevant
CEQ 016296
1 scientific communities. He intends to have the entire NRC funding package for CCSP
2 approval next month.
3
4
5 6. Meeting the increased workload demand in the CCSP Office (Mahoney)
6
7 Mahoney said that CCSPO is "facing a train wreck" because it is currently understaffed
8 to meet the demands placed on it by CCSP. New demands on the office include: the S&A
9 reports; the CCSP workshop; preparation of the 4th US Climate Action Report; and
10 formally tracking CCSP deliverables (as per the FY06 OMB Analytical Perspectives). In
11 addition, the terms of three federal employees detailed toCCSPO have ended and two
12 full-time CCSPO staff have recently resigned.
13
14 Mahoney indicated that 3-4 agency detailees are needed at least through the end of this
15 calendar year. Candidates for secondment should be prepared to work nearly full-time for
16 CCSPO. Suggestions were made to acquire individuals from various fellowship
17 programs, although it was also noted that previous efforts to acquire fellows (e.g., Sea
18 Grant Fellows) have failed. Mahoney said that CCSPO does not have the luxury of time
19 to meet its increased workload demand and to fill recently vacated staff positions. Mike
20 Slimak indicated that he will look into assigning an EPA-AAAS fellow to work at
21 CCSPO. Mary Cleave noted that NASA is attempting to identify a replacement for Bob
22 Cahalan. Mahoney asked each agency to investigate the possibility of seconding a.
23 qualified individual to CCSPO.
24
25 Action 6.i: All CCSP agencies will seek detailees to serve at CCSPO.
26
27 Action 6.ii: Dr. Mahoney and CCSPO will issue a description of CCSPO staffing needs
28 to assist agencies in identifying appropriate detailees.
29
30
31 7. Financial operations (Spence, Mahoney)
32 7.a. FY2005 omnibus budget request (Decision)
33 [Materials: 6.1 FOG Memo for FY200S.pdf
34 6.2 Table 1. FY200S Dist Cost Recommendations.pdf
35 6.3 Table 2. Agency Assessments FY200S.pdf]
36
37 Spence gave a briefing on the Financial Operation Group's recommendations for use of
38 CCSP's distributed cost funds in FY05. Spence's PowerPoint briefing file
39 <FOGBriefing_CCSP-Mar2005.ppt> [100 KB] can be accessed via the password-
40 protected CCSP repository:
41 http://www.usgcrp.gov/files
42 usemame = ccsp-info
43 password = XtraXtra
44
CEQ 016297
1 The request to the CCSP distributed cost fund is via an omnibus proposal from four
2 different entities: CCSPO, International Programs, IPCC, and the NRC. (As noted
3 previously, the NRC proposal is not yet finalized.)
4
5 The total FY05 request from these activities is $5,679K. FOG recommends a funding
6 level of $5,320 (i.e., 6.3% below the request). Spence outlined the proposed agency
7 assessments for the distributed cost budget. Details on the FY05 requests, FOG
8 recommendations, and proposed agency assessments are contained in the aforementioned
9 PowerPoint file.
10
11 There was some discussion about the possibility of providing a more complete definition
12 of "directly related" activities prior to next year's budget cycle.
13
14 Spence said that FOG recommends that the CCSPO Director's salary I be paid by CCSP
15 and requested a decision from the Principals on this. There was general concurrence
16 among the Principals to accept FOG's recommendation, but to phase it in gradually.
17
18 Decision 7: 50% of the CCSPO Director's salary will be added to the CCSPO funding
19 request for FY05. 100% will be included in future years. Funding for other agency
20 detailees will not be provided through the distributed cost budget.
21
22 There was discussion about the roles of CCSPO staff and the need for improved
23 communication from CCSP regarding its expectations ofCCSPO. Comments were made
24 concerning the insufficiency of current CCSPO human resources to address the range of
25 activities for which CCSPO is responsible. There was also discussion about the potential
26 implications ofa funding reduction for the International IWG ..
27
28 Leinen requested that a decision on the FOG's funding recommendations be deferred, to
29 allow more time to consider the implications of potential funding reductions. Mahoney
30 tabled a decision on the allocation of distributed cost funds until the April Principals
31 meeting.
32
33 7.b. Status ofarrears payments (Information)
34
35 It was noted that HHS and USAID did not provide funding to the CCSP distributed cost
36 budget last year and SI provided approximately half the CCSP-requested amount. Ko..,
37 Barrett said that USAID intends to contribute fully to the distributed cost budget. Patrick
38 Neale said that he is currently inquiring about Sl's contributions to the program and
39 recommended that Mahoney contact Dave Evans directly about this.
40
41 Action 7.i: Dr. Mahoney will contact Dr. Evans regarding Sl's contribution to the CCSP
42 distributed cost budget.
43
I The CCSPO Director is a DOE contractor whose salary is currently not included in the distributed cost
budget.
CEQ 016298
1 If $200K funding from HHS is not received, additional funding from the agencies will be
2 required or the CCSP funding allotments will need to be reduced. Mahoney reported that
3 efforts are underway to obtain an answer from HHS on distributed cost funding and
4 participation in the CCSP process. Moss noted that even more important than the budget
5 issue is the imperative of involving the unique technical capabilities of HHS in the
6 health-related challenges associated with CCSP. Mahoney said that ifHHS ultimately
7 fails to contribute financially to CCSP, they should not be named as a full CCSP
8 participant. Halpern offered the possibility of attempting to resolve the issue through the
9 EOP via the budget examiners.
10
11 Action 7.ii: Drs. Mahoney and Tribble will continue to attempt to resolve the HHS
12 arrears issue and may consult with Dr. Halpern, if necessary.
13
14
15 8. Synthesis and Assessment Products (Mahoney)
16 a. Policy on incorporating dissenting views in S&A Products (Decision)
17 [Materials: 7. Addressing a dissident view, draft.pdf]
18 b. Update (Information)
19
20 Due to time constraints, discussion of this item was deferred to the April meeting.
21
22
23 9. CCSP Specialty Workshop (Mahoney) (Information)
24 Update on plans for the workshop in late 2005.
25 [Materials: 9. CCSP Workshop, announcement, draft.pdf]
26
27 Mary Glackin has agreed to serve as the Chair of the workshop's steering committee.
28 NOAA will also provide support staff for the workshop. Glackin will seek agency
29 representatives to serve on the steering committee..
30
31 Action 9: Dr. Glackin will invite representatives of other CCSP agencies to serve on the
32 workshop steering committee.
33
34
35 10. CCSP assistance in the drafting ofthe fourth U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR-
36 4) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Mahoney) (Discussion)
37
38 Department of State is leading preparation of the fourth U.S. Climate Action Report to
39 the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. CCSP has been asked to take the
40 lead on two of the report's chapters dealing with Vulnerability, Assessment, Climate
41 Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures and Research and Systematic Observation.
42 Mahoney distributed an outline of work responsibilities for accomplishing this, along
43 with a general schedule.
44
45
46
CEQ 016299
I 11. GAO Exit Conference discussions (Mahoney) (Information)
2
3 GAO undertook an investigation of the CCSP at the behest of Senators McCain and
4 Kerry. The focus of the investigation was on the legal mandate for a wide ranging
5 assessment by the program every 4 years. GAO has given Mahoney an opportunity to
6 comment on the draft findings. GAO will send their final findings and recommendations
7 to the study's congressional sponsors and to CCSP.
8
9
10 Meeting adjourned.
CEQ 016300
Page 1 of 1
From: Hannegan, Bryan 1.

Sent: Monday, March 21, 20058:00 PM
To: James R. Mahoney; Olsen, Kathie L.; Cooney, Phil; Graham, John; Schwab, Margo
Cc: Conrad C Lautenbacher; Scott Rayder; Ahsha Tribble; Scott Smullen; Ted Kassinger
Subject: RE: GAO draft report on CCSP
Jim _. I hope you will notethat the previous Administration did not issue its first assessment until nearly8 years
after it took office, a sure indication that thecomplexity of the effort envisioned by Congress cannot be reasonably
accomplished within the statutory deadline. In fact, the only approach that may workwithin the 4-year window is
the deliverable approach that you have outlined in the CCSP Strategic Plan -- pieces of assessmentworkdone
on a rolling basis, updated each 4 years.
From: James R. Mahoney [mailto:James.R.Mahoney@noaa.gov]

sent: Monday, March 21, 2005 6:52 PM
To: Olsen, Kathie L.; Cooney, Phil; Hannegan, Bryan J.; Graham, John; Schwab, Margo
Cc: Conrad C Lautenbacher; Scott Rayder; Ahsha Tribble; Scott Smullen; Ted Kassinger
Subject: GAO draft report on CCSP
RESTRICTED - DO NOT CIRCULATE
To all-
We have received the attached draft report from GAO, Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did
Not Submit Assessment When Required and Needs Well Developed Plan to Meet Content Requirements.
I have already briefed Secretary Gutierrez, Deputy Secretary Kassinger, Undersecretary Lautenbacher
and NOAA Chief of Staff Rayder about this report, and I am sending it to the new addressees above to
advise you about its receipt. We are preparing a draft response and talking points for review by the
addressees. Please contact me by email or telephone if you have questions or comments. I will be in a
NOAA Science Advisory Board meeting during the next two days, but my secretary can forward your
messages (if any) to me.
Jim Mahoney
file://G:\FOIA - Climate\2005\Deliberative\1-3.05\RE GAO draft report on CCSP.htm 4/12/2007

CEO 016343
DRAFT Q&As - DO NOT CIRCULAlE March 25, 2005
BACKGROUND AND Q&As on the GAO Report

Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did Not Submit Assessment When
Required and Needs Well-Developed Plan to Meet Content Requirements
(GAO-OS-338R)
Background:
o On May 7, the Government Accountability Office (formerly known as the General

Accounting Office) initiated a review of three issues relating to climate change, one
of which was an examination of "efforts by the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program to comply with the reporting requirements ~ ~~)229 _Qlp~~-';:;l.!l!.J:!g~ __ . ' ~ - -l-...:D:..:e.:..:let.:..:ed:.::.·~,
p::..f ~
Research Act."
o A draft report was issued on March 17, 2005 for review and comment by DOC. The
final report is intended to be submitted to Congress (Senator John McCain and
Senator John Kerry) on April 14, 2005.
o The report found that:
a CCSP assessments are behind the schedule identified in the CCSP

Strategic Plan and thus are non-compliant with the requirements of
Section 106'of the 1990 GCRA to submit a scientific assessment to
Congress. The study suggests that the assessment was due in November
2004, four years after the earlier assessment.
o CCSP lacks a well-developed plan to address all eight of the assessment
areas identified in Section 106 of the GCRA. Some areas are only
peripherally addressed and others are absent from the 21 Synthesis and
Assessment reports.
o Because the reports will be issued over a period of three or more years, it
may be difficult for Congress and others to use them as a basis for
decision on climate policy. Products should be summarized into a single
document for a general audience for most effective use of information.
o Their recommendations are:

o Develop plans to prepare the next assessment within the prescribed time
frame, or if 4 years are insufficient to complete the assessment,
recommend to the CCSP interagency committee that CCSP request an
extension from the Congress;
o Develop a specific plan to address all eight of the assessment areas; and
o Recommend to the interagency CCSP Committee that a summary report
be prepared to integrate the findings of the 21 or more individual reports.
CEQ 016349
DRAFf Q&As - DO NOT Crn.CULATE March 25, 20Q5
Q&As
Q. You did not submit a scientific assessment in 2004, as required by the GCRA.
Are you doing an assessment?
The Administration has taken a more focused approach to the development of a national
assessment as described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. CCSP has identified 21 Synthesis
and Assessment products to be prepared over the next few years. These products cover a
full range of goals and include assessments of scientific issues, information on adaptation
options, and comparative evaluations of different approaches for addressing climate
variability and change. Taken together, these assessment products will comprise the
Administration's response to the requirements for assessment under the 1990 GCRA.
Q. Why is the assessment required by GCRA late?
It took the previous Administration nearly a decade to issue the first element of its first
assessment (November 2000) after Act came into effect in 1990. And even then, the
more detailed, significant reports were published as late as 2003. This is a sure indication
that the complexity of the effort envisioned by Congress cannot be reasonably
accomplished within four years. CCSP believes that tJ!e_ ~Jl!~~cJ1_ 8!1~_t!J!?~li~f'J.!.!l~ . _- '{)=D=e=leted==:T========<
outlined with the 21 Synthesis and Assessment products being released on a rolling basis - - ..-( Deleted: thatCCSP
and updated every four years represents an essential and prudent balance of quality and
timeliness.
Q. GAO says that you have ignored elements of the assessment requirements in
Section 106 or peripherally addressed them (l.e., human health and welfare and
human social systems). Do you feel that your 21 assessment adequately address
these issues?
The dissemination of the Synthesis and Assessment reports will provide a snapshot of
knowledge of the environmental and socio-economic aspects of climate variability and
change. We are engaging the National Academy of Sciences - National Research
Council to provide advice on the relevant aspects of the Climate Change Science
Program, including recommendations on areas that need further emphasis. Moreover, the
lead authors of the reports will be asked to document how ,t,b~i[..e!fo!~s add~es~ 0!le 9~ _.. ... ( Deleted: they intend to respond to the
more assessment areas of tile Act as they develop their prospectuses and will have the
opportunity to modify or extend their report's coverage, if needed. We may also
commission additional reports, if needed, to cover specific topics that are found to be
insufficiently addressed.
Q. Do you agree with the GAO recommendation that a summary report be

prepared?
CEQ 016350
DRAFT' Q&As - DO NOT CIRCULATE March 25, 2005
\ Deleted: keepCongressandthe public

\ advisedabout
Q. Why are you late on your self-imposed schedule for the 21 Synthesis and . Deleted: doing
Assessment Products as identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan?
While preparing the CCSP Strategic Plan, we underestimated the complexity and scope
of the work involved in producing the reports. We developed an overly ambitious
timeline. The development of the Guidelines for preparing the assessments was al so
delayedin order to~n~~lre cornplianc~ ~1tJ1)!lt;\ R.a!~ ~~l~_~£t_ap.~_Q~J~_ P~.L~~v_i~~ ,,- -ILD_e:....let_ed_:~comp-'-ly=-- ~
Guidelines as they apply to public government documents.
Q. Are you considering asking Congress for an extension on the time frame of the
next assessment?
CCSP willdeterminetheJ.)ecessary ~i!I!.eJ!~e !~q,uiJ~d t~ ~e_et !h_e a.s~~ssme!.1t ' _' - -r Deleted: prescribed
requirements of the Act, taking into account the schedule of report production for the
prior assessment (between late 2000 and 2003) ancl the anticipated schedule for the 21
Synthesis and Assessment products. CCSP..~y!l~...[e_C}!l~~.!-..a.!1_e_x!e..n§!o_n_~J!l_G<?l!@'~s§~ if -:' - .1 ~=~:.\~~~:p~ ~::~::~r
necessary. ',
Deleted: develop a
i Deleted: for
CEQ 016351
Page 1 of 1
, ,
Hannegan, Bryan J.
From: Hannegan, Bryan J.

Sent: Monday, March 28, 2005 10:36 AM
To: 'Ahsha Tribble'; James R. Mahoney Ph.D.
Cc: Cooney, Phil; Olsen, Kathie L.; Halpern, David; Wuchte, Erin; Schwab, Margo
Subject: RE: COMMENTS ON GAO RESPONSE - DUE NOON, 3/28
Importance: High
Attachments: GAO TPs_25Mar.doc
Ahsha - please find attached my comments on the background and Q&As on the CCSP response to the GAO
report, which should be also reflected in the 2-page formal response as well (given that they use the same
materials). Please call or write with any cuestlons. Thanks, Bryan
From: Ahsha Tribble [mailto:Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov]

sent: Friday, March 25, 2005 4:00 PM
To: Cooney, Phil; Hannegan, Bryan J.; Olsen, Kathie L.; Halpern, David; Wuchte, Erin; Schwab, Margo
Cc: James R. Mahoney Ph.D.
Subject: COMMETNS ON GAO RESPONSE - DUE NOON, 3/28
Good afternoon,
We are on a very short time schedule to respond to the GAO Draft Report on the climate ..
change assessment. I have attached the following documents for your review:
1) Response to GAO, 2-pages (need comments by noon, Monday, 3/28)

2) Background and Q&As on GAO report (send comments, as needed)
3) GAO Draft Report: Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did Not Submit
Assessment When Required and Needs Well-Developed Plan to Meet Content Requirements
If you have any questions, please call me at 202-482-5920 or 202-997-5384 (cell). Thank you
in advance. Have a great weekend.
Ahsha
*******************************************~
Ahsha N. Tribble, Ph.D.
Technical Chief of Staff
Office of Assistant Secretary of Commerce
For Oceans and Atmosphere I
,, ,I
HCHS!Room 5804 t-.--!
14th & Constitution Ave, NW / f
e
;
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
***************************************~****
3/28/2005 CEQ 016371

·
"
DRAFT Q&As - DO NOT CIRCULATE March 25, 2005
BACKGROUND AND Q&As on the GAO Report

Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did Not Submit Assessment When
Required and Needs Well-Developed Plan to Meet Content Requirements
(GAO-OS-338R)
Background:
o On May 7, the Government Accountability Office (formerly known as the General

Accounting Office) initiated a review of three issues relating to climate change, one
of which was an examination of "efforts by the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program to comply with the reporting requirements Qf; the _IJ?9 _qI9~~I_ G~~E~ _.' - { Deleted: pf
Research Act."
o A draft report was issued on March 17,2005 for review and comment by DOC. The
final report is intended to be submitted to Congress (Senator John McCain and
Senator John Kerry) on April 14,2005.
o The report found that:
o CCSP assessments are behind the schedule identified in the CCSP

Strategic Plan and thus are non-compliant with the requirements of
Section 106 of the 1990 GCRA to submit a scientific assessment to
Congress. The study suggests that the assessment was due in November
2004, four years after the earlier assessment.
o CCSP lacks a well-developed plan to address all eight of the assessment
areas identified in Section 106 of the GCRA. Some areas are only
peripherally addressed and others are absent from the 21 Synthesis and
Assessment reports.
o Because the reports will be issued over a period of three or more years, it
may be difficult for Congress and others to use them as a basis for
decision on climate policy. Products should be summarized into a single
document for a general audience for most effective use of information.
o Their recommendations are:

o Develop plans to prepare the next assessment within the prescribed time
frame, or if 4 years are insufficient to complete the assessment,
recommend to the CCSP interagency committee that CCSP request an
extension from the Congress;
o Develop a specific plan to address all eight of the assessment areas; and
o Recommend to the interagency CCSP Committee that a summary report
be prepared to integrate the fmdings of the 21 or more individual reports.
CEQ 016372
DRAFT Q&As - DO NOT CIRCULATE March 25, 2005
Q&As
Q. You did not submit a scientific assessment in 2004, as required by the GCRA.
Are you doing an assessment?
The Administration has taken a more focused approach to the development of a national
assessment as described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. CCSP has identified 21 Synthesis
and Assessment products to be prepared over the next few years. These products cover a
full range of goals and include assessments of scientific issues, information on adaptation
options, and comparative evaluations of different approaches for addressing climate
variability and change. Taken together, these assessment products will comprise the
Administration's response to the requirements for assessment under the 1990 GCRA.
Q. Why is tbe assessment required by GCRA late?
It took the previous Administration nearly a decade to issue the first element of its first
assessment (November 2000) after Act came into effect in 1990. And even then, the
more detailed, significant reports were published as late as 2003. This is a sure indication
that the complexity of the effort envisioned by Congress cannot be reasonably
accomplished within four years. CCSP believes that ijle_ aJ>P!~~c,!l_ a_n~_t~":I~Iit!.eJ! ~~~ .. -{>=DeI=eted~=:T ======4
outlined with the 21 Synthesis and Assessment products being released on a rolling basis - - "1 Deleted: thatcCSP
and updated every four years represents an essential and prudent balance of quality and
timeliness.
Q. GAO says tbat you have ignored elements of the assessment requirements in
Section 106 or peripherally addressed tbem (i.e., human bealtb and welfare and
human social systems). Do you feel that your 21 assessment adequately address
these issues?
The dissemination of the Synthesis and Assessment reports will provide a snapshot of
knowledge of the environmental and socio-economic aspects of climate variability and
change. We are engaging the National Academy of Sciences - National Research
Council to provide advice on the relevant aspects ofthe Climate Change Science
Program, including recommendations on areas that need further emphasis. Moreover, the-
lead authors of the reports will be asked to document how ..l!l.e~r_efforts add~ess one or . - .( Deleted: they intend to re,pond to the 1
more asseSSIll(:<nt areas of the Act as they develop their prospectuses and will have the
opportunity to modify or extend their report's coverage, ifneeded. We may also
commission additional reports, if needed, to cover specific topics that are found to be
insufficiently addressed.
Q. Do you agree with the GAO recommendation that a summary report be

prepared?
CEQ 016373
'.'
DRAFT Q&As.- DO NOT CIRCULATE March 25,2005
T<;~_SJ>_ is ~~tpp!i!t~~ to proy!<!e_p.ohcy:r~~e'y~~ ~1.J!l!I!l~_ i!lfo.~a!i~!1 y~i!~i!1_e~~~ P~O~~~~ _- - - Deleted: DOC/CCSP understands the
I ~tl:!e. reports are staggered, we will.£onsider the practicality and utility of also providing.
an overall summary at Ii sillgle- pomtin-time. - - - - - -. - - - - . - .... - - ". -.. .. . '\:~-,
rationale behind the GAO
recommendation.
\. "
Deleted: Because
Deleted: keep Congress and the public
, advised about
Q. Why are you late on your self-imposed schedule for the 21 Synthesis and Deleted: doing
Assessment Products as identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan?
While preparing the CCSP Strategic Plan, we underestimated the complexity and scope
of the work involved in producing the reports. We developed an overly ambitious
timeline. The development of the Guidelines for preparing the assessments was also
delayed in order to;nslJre_c0.!TIRI~a!l~ewjt]1_t~~ 'p_a~ 9~~Uty.~~t_a.!l~S?~P.~e.r)~ev.i~w.. - -{....;De_leted~_:c_o_m:..ply:..-. ----.J
Guidelines as they apply to public government documents.
Q. Are you considering asking Congress for an extension on the time frame of the
next assessment?
CCSP will determine theJ]~ce~s_a~ !i!.l1_eJ!l!.~~ required to me~t the. as~e.s.sll1ent .' - ~: prescribed
requirements of the Act, taking into account the schedule of report production for the
prior assessment (between late 2000 and 2003) and the anticipated schedule for the 21
Synthesis and Assessment products. CCSP T~il~..[e~u~stJl!1_e?'te_n_s~o!1fr<:lI!1_Go.n_gr~s~,_ if __'" Deleted: will comply with the time
frame delcxminod to be appropriate or
necessary. "
Deleted: develop a
Deteted: for
CEQ 016374
DRAFT TALKING POINTS February 12, 2004
Preliminary Talking Points for Release of

NRC Review of CCSP Strategic Plan
(Revisions to be made when NRC Report becomes available)
• In July 2002 we started a year-long process to prepare a comprehensive 10-

year strategic plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP).
• The plan incorporated the ongoing U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) with the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) created by
President Bush.
• Transparency and credibility of the scientifically rigorous planning process

was a priority, so we adopted the following steps:
a We made the "discussion draft" version of the strategic plan

available for wide public review in November 2002
a We held what was the largest major international climate science

workshop to review and critique the draft plan in December 2002
a We held a written public comment period that generated over 900

pages of comments
a We asked that the National Academy of Sciences - National

Research Council (NRC) organize a special committee.to review
and critique both the discussion draft plan in November of 2002 and
our updated plan released in July 2003.
• The first NRC report released nearly a year ago (February 27, 2003) yieldeg
specific recommendations in four broad areas. They suggested that we:
a Clarify the vision, goals, and priorities of CCSP
a Better fill the need for managing climate and global change
information
a Improve the program management description
a Enhance linkages and communication
• After receiving the NRC comments as well as those of the international

scientific community and the public, the CCSP interagency tea r • ; nembers
from 13 agencies undertook several actions to revise and extend the strategic
plan, including:
a Reconciling the large number of divergent comments
a Meeting the needs of multiple audiences, from decision makers to
those in the scientific & technical communities
o Responding to competing priorities
a Clarifying timelines for milestones and deliverables
CEQ 016386
DRAFT TALKING POINTS February 12, 2004
• This effort resulted in the updated CCSP Strategic Plan released on July 24,
2003. This updated plan responds directly to NRC recommendations in that it
o SpeCifically incorporates a vision statement, a mission statement,

five goals to focus and orient research, and specific priorities,
including the CCRI priorities identified in the 2001 NRC report,
Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions;
o Describes of the cabinet-level management structure and roles and

responsibilities of each agency in managing climate and global
change information;
o Clarifies the relationship between the CCRI and the USGCRP ana
describes in detail the single program management structure for
both programs; and
o Articulates the process and products by which the CCSP will

support decision-making and direct stakeholder interactions.
• For example, the NRC recommended that we better describe a strategy for
achieving an integrated observing system for detecting and understanding
climate variability and change.
o CCSP responded by reworking Chapter 12, Observations and

Monitoring the Climate System, which now lays out this strategy.
./ In particular, the plan emphasizes science-driven

requirements based on the need for climate-quality data
products, stabilizing and extending observing capabilities,
accelerating the deployment of elements needed for decision
support, and the need for international collaboration.
./ What's more, relevant CCSP agencies are working closely

with the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), which was
created from the US hosted Earth Observation Summirin
July 2003.
• While the updated Strategic Plan is a result of an extensive effort by the

CCSP, it is considered a living document that will be updated over time as we
continue to answer questions and reduce uncertainties in climate science.
• We thank the NRC for its thoughtful comments and suggestions, and we are
pleased to address their further comments as we continue to implement the
CCSP strategic plan.
CEQ 016387
WORKING DRAFT - TO BE AUGMENTED WITH SPECIFIC CITATIONS OF THE
NRC FINDINGS WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE
DRAFT NRC Review 2 STATEMENT - version 5
Statement from James R. Mahoney, assistant secretary of commerce for oceans

and atmosphere, deputy NOAA administrator and director of the Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP) on the National Research Council report on the CCSP Strategic Plan:
"I am pleased that the National Research Council has continued their review of
the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan and today released their follow-
on analysis of our updated plan. Their report shows that our updated Strategic Plan
highlights the importance of global change research and clearly describes the priorities,
goals, and milestones that will provide timely, comprehensive and sustained climate
information needed by our Nation.
"In revising our Strategic Plan, the CCSP incorporated recommended changes and
other revisions suggested by a wide range of reviewers, including the NRC. We paid
particular attention to improving the process of soliciting and incorporating input from
the national and international scientific and stakeholder communities, and the NRC
acknowledges that fact.
"We thank the NRC for its thoughtful comments and suggestions, and are pleased
to address these new comments as we continue to implement the CCSP Strategic Plan
and improve our scientific understanding of climate variability and change."
WORKING DRAFT - TO BE AUGMENTED WITH SPECIFIC CITATIONS

OF THE NRC FINDINGS WHEN THEY BECOME AV AILABLE
CEQ 016388
DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT
Statement from Secretary Evans on NRC Report on CCSP Strategic Plan:
Under President Bush's leadership, the resources of 13 federal agencies were dedicated to
creating this U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan, the first such plan in
over a decade. The federal government spends approximately $2 billion annually to
advance the scientific understanding of global climate change, and this ten-year strategic
plan provides a critical roadmap for reducing key uncertainties. I want to thank the
National Research Council for their reviews of the plan and for their recommendations.
As we move forward with the implementation of this plan, the expertise of the NRC and
other interested parties will continue to shape and inform the science needed to address
this global challenge.
###
CEQ 016389
Page 1 of 2
From: Cooney, Phil

Sent: Monday, April 25, 20051:43 PM
To: Jennifer.Sprague@noaa.gov; Danderson@doc.gov
Subject: FW: GAO Meeting with Hill Staff
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _• R."_ ...

sent: Monday, April 25, 2005 12:58 PM
To: 'Ahsha Tribble'
cc: Cooney, Philj Olsen, Kathie L.j Tringe, Heidi M.
Subject: RE: GAO Meeting with Hill Staff
Recommend-you stick closely to the talking points -- and make it quite clear that CCSP will not be doing a "new
Nationalassessment" but ratherthan you are doing the assessmentactivity called for underthe Global Change
Research Act through the 21 Synthesis and Assessment deliverables.
You have very few friends among that audience,
_._-----------
From: Ahsha Tribble (mailto:Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov]
sent: Monday, April 25, 2005 12:47 PM
To: Cooney, Phil; Hannegan, Bryan J.
Subject: GAO Meeting with Hill Staff
Phil and Bryan,
We will be going to visit Hill staff (see email msg below) tomorrow regarding the GAO report
tomorrow afternoon. Would you find it useful to have a quick phone conversation later today or
late morning tomorrow on strategy or do you feel that we should stick to our talkers.
Thanks,
Ahsha
-------- Original Message --------

Subject:Meeting Info
Date:Fri, 22 Apr 2005 15:34:37 -0400
From:Craig Montesano <Craig.Montesano @noaa.~
To:Ahsha Tribble <ahsha.tribble@noaa.gov>
Here are the details on the meeting requested by Floyd DesChamps on the results of the GAO report
commissioned by Sens. McCain and Kerry:
Tuesday, April 26th @ 2:00 PM

425 Hart
Participants: Floyd DesChamps, Margaret Spring, Garrett Graves (Vitter staff, Climate Change
Subcommittee), Cindy Bethel (Lautenberg staff, Climate Change Subcommittee), Matt Paxton (tent.)
********************************************
A /1 "'tlfQ 016500
Page 2of2

For'Oceans and Atmosphere
HCHB!Room 5804
14th & Constitution Ave, NW
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
A 11""''"'C~ 016501
From: Cooney, Phil
To: Etheridge, Dorothy;
CC: Peel, Kenneth L.; Hannegan, Bryan J.; Holbrook, William F.;
St. Martin, Michele M.;
Subject: FW: ASSIGNMENT -- PREPARA nON OF ONE-PAGE
FACT SHEETS ON CLIMATE PROGRAMS
Date: Friday, May 13,20052:18:01 PM
Attachments: CCRI Ipager.doc
CCSP Plan Ipager.doc
GEOSS lpage.doc
Ahsha.Tribble.vcf
please print out
From: Ahsha Tribble [mailto;Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov]

Sent: Friday, May 13, 2005 1:27 PM
To: Cooney, Phil
Cc: James R Mahoney; danderson@DOC.gov; Hannegan, Bryan J.
Subject: Re: ASSIGNMENT -- PREPARATION OF ONE-PAGE FACT SHEETS ON
CUMATE PROGRAMS
Phil,
I have attached the 3 I-pagers that were tasked to NOAA. Once cleared by CEQ,
we are prepared to format them with graphics, as appropriate.
Thank you,
Ahsha
Cooney, Phil wrote:
Colleagues, We are requesting your assistance in preparing a

series of approximately 25+ one-page fact sheets on the range of
major programs and initiatives in which the federal government is
engaged to address global climate change. Weare seeking initial
CEQ 016654
drafts by next Wednesday, May 11, following the recommended
format provided below and inserted as a separate document to this e-
mail. We anticipate continued interest and attention to this issue in
the next few months and want to be prepared to inform
policymakers of not only thee-breadth of activities and programs we
are now pursuing to address this issue, but also a little more depth
than our current White House Fact Sheet (posted on the White
House website) now provides. At the risk of getting one or two of
these assignments wrong, I would ask the following individuals to
supervise the preparation of these fact sheets on the following topics
(and if you have more ideas on additional topics, please let me ,
know or just go ahead and prepare a draft). In advance, thank you
for yourattention to this effort. Phil
TOPICS:
1. Increased Budget for Climate Change (Kevin Neyland/Christine

McDonald, OMB)
2. Tax Incentives in the NEP and FY'06 budget for renewable and
. energy efficient technologies (Rick Mertens/Rob Sandoli, OMB)
3. Hydrogen Fuel Initiative and FreedomCAR Program (David
Conover, DOE)
4. International Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy ("IPRE")
(David Conover, DOE)
5. FutureGen -- Coal-Fired, Zero-Emission ElectricityGeneration
(David Conover, DOE)
6. Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum ("CSLF") (David
Conover, DOE)
7. Fusion Energy ("ITER") (David Conover, DOE)
8. Climate Change Science Program and Ten-Year Strategic
Research Plan (Jim Mahoney, NOAA)
9. Climate Change Reserach Initiative ("CCRI") (Jim Mahoney,
NOAA)
1O. Earth Observation Efforts and Ten-Year Strategic Plan (Jim
Mahoney, NOAA)
11. Global Earth Observation System of Systems ("GEOSS") (Jim
Mahoney,NOAA)
,12. "Climate VISION" Partnerships (David Conover, DOE--
CEQ 016655
please share drafts with EPA, DOT and USDA first)
13. EPA Climate Leaders Program (JeffHolmsteadlKathleen
Hogan, EPA)
14. EPA Smartway Partnership (Jeff Hoimstead/Kathleen Hogan;
EPA)
15. EPA MethanelHigh GWP Programs (JeffHolmsteadlKathleen
Hogan, EPA)
16. New DOE Voluntary Emissions Reductions Reporting
Guidelines ("1605(b)") (David Conover, DOE)
17. Targeted Incentives for Greenhouse Gas Sequestration (USDA
Farm Bill Conservation Programs) (Dale Moore/Bill Hohenstein,
USDA)
18. Fuel Economy Increase for Light Trucks (Tyler Duvall, DOT)
19. DOE Energy Efficiency Standards (David Conover, DOE)
20. Methane to Markets Partnership (Jeff HomsteadlDina Kruger/
Paul Gunning, EPA -- please share drafts with DOE, USAID, and
State)
21. Regional and Bilateral Activites (Harlan Watson, State)
22. Generation IV International Forum -- Nuclear Energy (David
Conover, DOE)
23. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (David
Conover, DOE)
24. Global Environment Facility (Bobby Pittman, Treasury)
25. Tropical Forest Conservation Act (Harlan Watson, State)
26. President's Initiative Against Illegal Logging (Harlan Watson,
State)
27. US AID Development Assistance for Energy Efficiency/Lower
Air Pollution and GRG Emissions (Jackee Schafer, USAID)
(Format for One-page Fact Sheets)

TOPICITITLE OF PROGRAM [Capital letters ]
Brief Description of Program: (3 -·4 general, 'top-level'
sentences on what it does, on the quality of activities being
CEQ 016656
undertaken).
History of Program: (when announced and by whom? If
appropriate, insert one or two sentence quote from highest ranking
official involved in announcing, with date. Note funding or
performance commitments or other, more general benchmarks made
at time ofannouncement. If applicable, note relevant legislation
dates and names of authorizing laws.
Progress and Milestones: Need information bullets on: (l)
historic and current funding levels and FY '06 budget request, if
applicable; (2) stated or evolving objectives of program; (3) recent
estimated results or benefits or benchmarks of progress; (4)
anticipated near-term next steps (within the next 6 months)
Federal Point of Contact: Provide website address for program
itself and name of Departmentlagency office that administers the
program. [In cases where there are multiple agencies participating,
generally there is one lead office and the name of that office alone
should be provided - we are merely trying to provide a point of
entry for further information].
CEQ 016657
PRE-DECISIONAL May 25, 2005
CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS

AND FACA COMPLIANCE
ISSUE STATEMENT
Issue:
The guidelinesunderwhich National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
andother Federal agency scientists would work with scientists from outside the Federal
government to develop informationproducts for the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP)triggerthe requirements of the FederalAdvisory Committee Act
(FACA) 5 U.S.C. App. 2.
There are two matters to consider CCSP is currently behindon its self-imposed (but
public) scheduleofproducing these reports, so time is of the essence. Second, author
teams are reluctantto commit to specific prospectuseson their products without knowing
what will come ofthe FACA issue.
Background: CCSP Products

President Bush launched the U.S. ClimateChange Science Program (CCSP) in February
2002 as a collaborative interagency program that incorporates and integrates the U.S.
Global Change ResearchProgram (USGCRP)with the Administration's Climate Change
The activitiesof the CCSP are performed under the 1990 Global ChangeResearch Act
(GCRA) which requires the Government to submit a quadrennial scientific assessment
which (1) integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings ofthe Program and discusses
the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) analyzes the effects of
global change on the natural environment, agriculture,energyproduction and use, land
andwater resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems,
andbiological diversity; and (3) analyzescurrent trends in global change,both human-
induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. Pub.
L. No. 101-606, § 106.
The CCSP Strategic Plan, released in July 2003, identifies 21 Synthesis and Assessment
products' to be completedover the next four years (by 2007). These productswere
meantto fulfill the requirements of the 1990 GCRA2• The process by whichthe
assessments are to be drafted suggests that each participating agency will be responsible
for serving as a lead agency in developingone or more "synthesis and assessment
products," or reports, on climate.change science. In producingthese reports, NOAA
scientists may obtain scientific information from scientists from the private sector,
academia, and other countries.
I The list of the 21 CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products is attached.

2 An excerpt from Chapter 2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan is attached.
1
CEQ 016765
The "Guidelines for ProducingCCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products'" established a

three-step process for developing the reports: (1) identifying the topic andpreparing a
prospectus, (2) drafting the information products and melding them into a report through
a "lead author" process, and (3) evaluating the draft products, includingpeerreview ofthe
first draft, public comments on the second draft, and preparation of a thirddraft, taking
into accountthe publiccommentsreceived. This third draftwill be the final information
product.
An agencyparticipating in the CCSP may serve as the "lead agency" on one or more of
21 information products (attached). These topics to be covered by the information
products were identified through the CCSP StrategicPlan, which was developed by an
interagency groupwith extemal.input.
Eachproduct is assigned to a lead agency, that agencymay involve otheragencies,

referred to as "contributing agencies." The agenciesmay also identify scientists from
Government and the private sector, academia, and othercountries to serve as "lead
authors" for the products. At the beginning ofthe process, the lead authors on a
particular product will convene as a "leadauthor team" to agree upon the scope ofthe
topic and on work assignments(prospectus). Then the product is draftedby the authors,
either individually or in groups. The team members will convene again to discuss the
merged product and edit the sectionsfor continuity. Changes to any portion ofthe
information productmust be agreedupon by the authors of the product.
Once the first draft ofthe informationproduct is assembled by the lead authorteam, it
willbe submittedfor peer review throughprocedures following the OMB Peer Review
Bulletin and CCSP Guidelines. Thereafter, the information product will be submitted for
public comment and ultimately Committee on Environment and Natural Resources
approval before being issued in final form.
Possible Options Discussed:

1) Develop statutoryauthority for a FACA exemption for the preparation of the
CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products. This would be the preferredroute, but
a specific strategy has not beendeveloped. Oneoption may be to insert language
in an appropriations bill. The first step here wouldbe for legal counsel to prepare
a short (i.e., 3-page) policy options memo.
2) Establish a FACA committeeunder NOAA (called the "CCSP Product

Development Advisory Committee") and establish Working Groups under the
committee. We understand that the parent Advisory Committee would need to be
FACA-compliant, but that the individual Working Groups (composed of authors
for each one ofthe 21 products) would not require separate FACA certification.
We wouldhave to create acharter, solicit nominations for members, etc. In
addition, this would only solvethe problem for the products lead by NOAA; or, it
would imply that DOCINOAA will have the lead on all of the products.
3 The "Guidelines for Producing the cCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products" are attached.
2
CEQ 016766
3) Create Working Groups under the National Academy of Sciences - National

Research Counsel, In particular, NOAA wouldidentifygroups (author teams)
that would operate as subcommittees or working groups to a NAS-established
panel. TheNAS attorney advised that any workdone under the auspices of the
NationalAcademy of Sciences could only be doneby groups organized and
appointed solelyby NAS. WhenNAS establishes groups it accepts
recommendations from sponsors on prospective members,but does not view itself
as boundby those. Hence, it does not appearthat organizinga CCSP preparation
committee as a subordinate group to a NAS committee is a workable option.
3
CEQ 016767
Page 1 of 1
Hannagan, Bryan J.
From: Ahsha Tribble [Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov]

Sent: Wednesday, July 13.20055:04 PM
To: danderson@DOC.GOV; Hannegan, Bryan J.
Subject: Follow up letter with edits
Attachments: Follow Up to DeMint Letter_July13_edits.doc; Follow Up to DeMint Letter_July13_clean.doc
David and Bryan,
Attached is the edited and clean version of the letter after agency and EOP comments were
considered. Please call me to discuss if you have any questions. We can add new edits
through the LRM process.
Thanks,
Ahsha
********************************************
For Oceans and Atmosphere
HCHB/Room 5804
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202 -4 82 - 6318 (Fax)
********************************************
7/13/2005
CEQ 016865
"
P~DECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate

Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, United States Senate
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, United States Senate
Committee on Environment and Public Works, United States Senate
Committee on Appropriations, United States House of Representatives
Committee on Energy and Commerce, United States House of Representatives
Committee on Science, United States House ofRepresentatives
Subject: Revised Schedule and Scope for the Scientific Synthesis and Assessment
Products Being Produced by the Climate Change Science Program
Dear Committee Members:
I am writing to provide an updated schedule and scope of the Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment products, which reflects the strategy to
comply with Section 106 of the 1990 Global Change Research Act (GRCA),
Background
The President established the U.S. Climate Change Science Program in 2002 as part of a
new cabinet-level management structure to oversee public investments in climate change
science and technology. The new management structure also includes the Climate
Change Technology Program, which is responsible for accelerating climate-related
technology research and development. The CCSP incorporates the U.S. Global Change
Research Program, established by the Global Change Research Act, and the Climate
Change Research Initiative, established by the President in 2001. CCSP coordinates and
integrates scientific research on global change and climate change sponsored by 13
participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Govenunent.
CCSP is a comprehensive interagency research program charged with investigating

natural and human-induced changes in the Earth's global environmental system;
monitoring important climate parameters; predicting global change; and providing a
sound scientific basis for national and international decisionmaking. A central tenant of
CCSP has been a focus on improving key elements of climate science to provide a basis
for improved climate assessments.
In July 2003, CCSP published the Strategic Planfor the u.s. Climate Change Science
Program. The Strategic Plan responds to the President's direction that climate change
research activities be accelerated to provide the best scientific information to support
public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related issues. The plan also responds
to Section 104 of the GCRA, which mandates the development and periodic updating ofa
long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science
and Technology Council. This was the first comprehensive update ofa strategic plan for
U.S. global change arid climate change research in 14 years. The Strategic Plan is
considered a living document as we anticipated that adjustments would be needed as the
science evolved and priorities changed over time.
CEQ 016866
~REDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
The Strategic Plan identified 21 Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) Products to be

produced over a four-year time frame (20Q4...2007). e . _ " _ _. .. . .. . ' Deleted: ThePlan anticipatedthat these
productswouldfulfill the requirements
for the updatedsynthesis and assessments
Formal Recommendations Received on the Synthesis and Assessment Products containedin SectiQ~ .'i6 of the GCRA.~
National Academies' National Research Council (NRC)

In February 2004, the NRC review committee issued a public report, Implementing
Climate and Global Change Research: A Review ofthe Final U.S. Climate Change
Science Program Strategic Plan, expressing the committee's conclusions on the content,
objectivity, quality, and comprehensiveness of the updated Strategic Plan, on the process
used to produce it, and on the proposed process for developing subsequent findings to be
reported by the CCSP.
Recommendation NRC-I: The synthesis and assessment products should be chosen to

explicitly address the range of needs for decision makers and program management, as
well as the broad scope specified in the Global Change Research Act.
CCSP Response: CCSP adopted a strong emphasis on advancing our

understanding of climate science as the basis for improved decision support
information. CCSP has carefully analyzed the relationship between the synthesis
and assessment products and the requirement of the Act. The scope of the products,
in some cases revised to be more responsive to the Act, is described in Table 1
below.
Recommendation NRC-2: The CCSP should ensure the credibility of synthesis and
assessment products by producing them with independent oversight and review from
the wider scientific and stakeholder communities throughout the process.
CCSP Response: CCSP has adopted a wide ranging scientific peer review and
stakeholder review process to ensure transparency, inclusiveness, and utility of the
reported information.
Recommendation NRC-3: The CCSP should ensure that the synthesis and assessment
products are produced without unduly affecting the ability to conduct research and in
coordination with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment.
CCSP Response: CCSP is managing the Synthesis and Assessment Product

process with careful consideration of needs for the climate specialists to continue to
lead their underlying research and, in many cases, to participate in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment process.
Government Accountability Office (GAO)

In April 2005, the GAO issued a report, Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did
Not Meet Reporting Deadline, making recommendations on the CCSP Products.
CEQ 016867
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
Recommendation GAO~l: Develop plans to prepare the next assessment within the
prescribed time frame, or if 4 years are insufficient to complete the assessment,
recommend to the CCSP interagency Committee that CCSP request an extension from
the Congress.
CCSP Response: CCSP plans to complete the S&A products necessary to comply
with Section 106 of the GCRA by the end of2007. Production of some of the
CCSP Products, not required by Section 106, will be extended into 2008. (See
Table 1.) CCSP requests that the Congress recognize 2007 as the required
completion date for those products required by Section 106. CCSP also requests
that the Congress consider establishing a longer cycle for future assessments... ~~.~.~ ..__ . i . > ·•
Deleted: recommends that Congress
considerestablishing a 7-year cycle time
prepared under the provisions of the GCRA, that reflects the increasjp.g_~.()~~~~ity .._ for furore assessments to be
of climate science and related information. This consideration is used by the IPCC, Deleted: . Thistimeframe reflects the
which has adopted a seven-year cycle for its Fourth Assessment Report..... __ .. ..... increas
Deleted: ,and conforms to the schedule
Recommendation GAO-2: Develop a specific plan to address all eight of the currently adoptedby JPCC.
assessment areas.
CCSP Response: CCSP plans to modify the current list of 21 Synthesis and
Assessment Products to incorporate coverage of all assessment areas. Recognizing
the multiple demands on the climate science community responsible for preparing
these products, CCSP will delay until 2008 some of the products not required by the
GCRA. (See Table 1.) The eight assessment areas will be addressed in the
following synthesis and assessment products:
A. The natural environment: .~ ..3!.4:.1..................... __ ..' " ""'1~De~Ieted;;;;;;:;,;,;:2;;,;.2.;.,'= = = = = =
B. Agriculture: .4}................ .......' ~~.:.::::: {>=DDeIeted,.;e1,.;eted=,• .;:'2;".5.=' ,1 =======<
C. Energyproductionanduse:ll,4.5 .. __ _ . 2
D. Land and water resources: 4:3'..·....·.. ".' ..{Deleted: 3.2
E. Transportation: 4.7 I...=.::==.:....=------~
F. Human health and welfare: 4.6
G. Human social systems: 4.6
H. Biological diversity: 4.3 Deleted: 'iI
In addition, otherrequirements of Section
106will be addressed by other products,
~~c.~~~~~.':i.~~~~. Q~9.~~;_ .~~~~~~~~_ ~_(). ~~. ~.9~~ .i?~~~l1g~~cy' _~()rIlIIl.i~~. ~11~ .a.. including, 1.1,2.1,2.3,5.2, and 5.3.~
summary report be prepared to integrate the findings of the 21 or more individual 11
reports. Deleted: preparea summariesof each
Synthesis and Assessment Producton a
near-currentbasisasthey are available in
CCSP Response: CCSP will inco1]orate a summary of findings of all completed the next threeeditions of
Products required by GCRA in our annual.Qll!..Q~I!!!g:!~~g:_f'.Zql!e_~!:~p.~~~.!~ J/ . Formatted: Font: Italic
Congress, starting in 2006 __ __ .. __ __ .__ .. __ . . 0:-.-
""'.~ Deleted: .
Deleted: y
Deleted: reportincorporating the
Revised Schedule and Scope of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products fin~ of theProducts required by the
Table I outlines the revised schedule and scope of the 21 Synthesis and Assessment GeRA. This summary is scheduledfor
productionin 2007.
Products..;... . ..
Deleted: , which includesa
modificationof theoriginal Jistof21
products
CEQ 016868
.. _. -.. --{ Formatted Table
Table 1. Revised Schedule and Scope

of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products
July 15, 2005
Description Agency Scheduled

Lead Complerlonz; ______ ..... --.{ Deleted: 'I
GOAL I Improve knowledge ofthe Eanli's past and present climate and environment,
including it natural variability, and improve understanding oftile causes of
observed variability and changes
Product 1.1 Temperaturetrends in the lower

atmosphere-steps for understanding
NOAA 1" quarter 2006
T. ~ ~ •..•..• _ ..• __
""·':.:1 Forma~:
----.--
centered
Deleted. Yes
and reconcilingdifferences. (<2 yrs)
Product 1.2 Past climate variability and change in USGS 2nn quarter 2008 Formatted: Centered
the Arctic and at high latitudes. «2 yrs) 1'•.• _ •••••••.•• .- Deleted: No
Product 1.3 Reanalysesof historical climate data for NOAA 2n• quarter 2008 Formatted: Centered
key atmosphericfeatures. Implications Y. .. _-_ ....... . -
Deleted: No
for attributionof causes of observed
change. (2-4 yrs)
GOAL 2 Improve quantification ofthe forces bringing' about changes in the Earth's
climate and related systems
Product 2.1 Updatingscenarios of greenhouse gas DOE 4m quarter 2006 .. -.. ::: { Fonna~: Centered
emissions and concentrations, in T. ___ .••...•. _ . • • ---.'-- Deleted. Yes
collaboration with the CCTP. Review of
integratedscenario development and
application. (<2 yrs)
Product 2.2 North American carbon budget and NOAA I st quarter 2007 ..---.-.-1Fonnatted: Centered
implications for the global carbon cycle. 't._ . . • . . • . --_ . . --- .... - Deleted: Yes
«2 yrs)
Product 2.3 Aerosolproperties and their impacts on NASA 3'" quarter 2007 .. - ---.. -{ Formatted- centered
climate. (2-4 yrs) T •.• Deleted: Yes
Product 2.4 Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting NOAA 2·· quarter 2008 Formatted: centered
substances, ozone layer recovery, and T. ____ ._ •.•• ____
Deleted: No
implications for ultraviolet radiation
exposure and climate change. (2-4 yrs], _. _.- .. - _ ... " _. -- ........ --------_._- -_..... _- . ..-....··-1 ~eleted: 'I
GOAL 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections ofhow the Eartk's climate and related
systems may change ill the future
Product 3.1 Climate models and their uses and

limitations, including sensitivity,
DOE 2na quarter 2007
'f ••••• ___ ...
"--'-:::1 Fo~:
. - . .--- .. '-
Centered
Deleted. Yes
feedbacks,and uncertainty analysis. (<2
yrs)
Product 3.2 Climate projections for research and
assessmentbased on emissions
NOAA 3'" quarter 2007
"... - .. . - ..... - - --. . . .
....--:::1For~: centered
Deleted. Yes
scenarios developed through CCTP. (2-
4 yrs)
CEQ 016869
Product 3.3 Climate extremes including NOAA 200 quarter 2008 ........... Formatted: centered
documentation of current extremes. (2-4 .................. ... - . ' ." Deleted: No
yrs)
Product 3.4 Risks of abrupt changes in global USGS
00
2 quarter 2008 .... , "
.' Formatted: centered
climate. (2-4 yrs) Formatted: Indent: Left: Opt
CYVe will update the)~~? .-",
..... -..... - Deleted: ~
NRC Report.)
Deleted: No
- ... - Deleted: Yes
GOAL 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability ofdifferent natural and managed ,:
ecosystems and humat systems to climate and related global changes Deleted: No
...
Deleted: Effects on
Product 4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea- EPA 3m quarter 2007
level rise. (<2 yrs) Formatted: Indent: Left: Opt
"'._-----_._._.-
Product 4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of USGS 10
4 quarter 2007 .: Deleted: ~
change that could lead to discontinuities T••••••••••.. __ ••. Deleted:
"
(sudden changes) in some ecosystems "
"
"Formatted: Left, Indent: Left: Opt
and climate-sensitive resources. (2-4 ::':
.::.: Deleted: ~
vrs)
USDA... .. ~~.qq~e!'.?pO!...
.':.. Yes
:::: "
Product 4.3 ~n~lxse~. ~r th.e: .effe~.~ ~r gl.(l~.a\ ~,haJlge.. ., - ....... .. . ... :.;':
on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and Deleted: Yes
water resources. (Re-scoped to include
biodiversity, land,~9: .. ,
.:/:/:; Fortnat:tal: - tent: Left: 0 pt
"waterresources.), ~::~t "

Deleted: ~
Formatted: left, Indent:Left: 0 pt
Product 4.4 Preliminary review ofadaptation EPA
W
4 quarter 2007 ,::/.,
options for climate sensitive ecosystems T •••••••••••••• ... /,:::: Deleted: ~
and resources. (2-4 vrs) Yes
Product 4.5 Analyses of the effects of global change DOE 2n• quarter 2007 :::/// Deleted: State-of·the.science
on energy production and use. i'/: .- Formatted: Indent: Left: Opt
(Re-scoped to focus ....... .....:':: ::.-',~::
on energy systems.), --_ .. " Deleted:

-<',
'
on ,
Product 4.6 ~nalxs~~, ~f ~.eeffect~. ~f glob.a!. c.haJlg~ . '"

EPA .... ~~.qq~!'.?P9J ... ...... Formatted: left, Indent: Left: 0 pt
on human health and welfare and human Deleted: w... ~
~j! r::m
systems. (Re-scoped to focus on Yes
~~i:e~i~~~·aJld.. .... - .. .......
...: ,.,.,
Formatted: Superscript
Deleted: 2'"
Product 4.7 Within the transportation sector, a DOT ~q~(j~.?WZ...... ... .. - ~'" .-
summary of climate change and Fonnatted: Indent: left: Opt
variability sensitivities, potential (Re-scoped to add an .-'
Deleted: 'iJ
impacts, and response options. (2-4 yrs) overview.~~ .t~_~ .~ta~e ,~f. .. ......
Deleted: K
~~~!~g~1'~~~~ ....... .. - '.
for potential~!l.ct~.J?U.x . .... ,~
Deleted: 'iJ
-1!artg~~JranSportation : "
Deleted: 'iJ
.>Y$tems.l. +, ". ',~
GOALS Explore the uses and identify the limits ofevolving knowledge to manage risks "':'\:. "" ' DeIeted:'i!
and otmorumides related to climate variability and cllanxe \"\' Deleted:
Product 5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, NASA 410 quarter 2006 \..\.. , Deleted: on...'1 r:::12f
data, forecasts, and other projections in ................
decision support for selected sectors and \::::::.::: Deleted: modes
regions. (<2yrs)
... ' Formatted: left, Indent:Left: 0 pt
"'\
Product 5.2 Best-practice approaches to TBD.. 3'" Quarter 2006 D~:'Jl r:::r3f
I
\
characterize, communicate, and ......... -_...... Formatted Table
incorporate scientific uncertainty in
decisionmaking. «2 yrs) Deleted: Yes
-, Deleterl' . 'S" "'mded ~ r::T4l

Deleted: Yes
CEQ 016870
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO N()T CIRCULATE OR CITE
ProductS.3 Decision supportexperiments and NOAA 4'"quarter2007

evaluations using seasonalto 'Y•••••••••••••••
......... { Deleted: Yes
interannual forecasts and observational
data. (<2 yrs) .
* The scheduled completion dates noted in Table 1 can only be met if the administrative
challenges described in the "Lessons Learned" section below are resolved.
Lessons Learned During the Development of the Synthesis and Assessment Products
Establishing the process for preparing the CCSP's synthesis and assessment products has
taken much longer than anticipated because ofthe need to harmonize the CCSP process
with both new and established legal requirements for producing government-
disseminated documents. This has caused time delays in the production schedule for the
products and have significantly increased the complexity of the tasks initially envisioned
under the plan. Key factors include:
Deleted: cCSP has experienceda series
,....6MB 'iiiformation 'QuaiitY' ~(ct' R:i'quiremeiits:" The'CCSP'product dev~iopment'" of unexpectedchallenges in the
developmentof the S&Aproducts
activities became one of the first examples oflarge-scale, multi-agency sponsored identified in theJuly 2003 Strategic PIan.
These challenges havecaused time delays
scientific surveys to be prepared under the 2002 Information Quality Act (IQA). in the production schedulefor the
Substantial time was expended in the development of the' Guidelines for Producing products and havesignificantly increased
the complexityof the tasks initially
the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products in a form that recognized the need to envisionedundertheplan, Key
create a workable interaction between the requirements for scientific peer review, challenges include:~
public stakeholder review and government agency review with a methodology that
would assure credibility among all users of the CCSP documents. After receiving
public cormnents and repeated multi-agency legal review, the Guidelines for the
preparation of the CCSp products were published .iP.: tI1~U: .c~~Il:~ KO.r:tJ:l. in December .. ' .. ' (Deleted: 0
2004.
OMB Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review: Under the Information
Quality Act, OMB was required to develop scientific peer review guidelines
(ultimately published in December 2004) for government-disseminated science-based
documents. Each agency was also required to adopt or adapt the OMB guidelines for
their own use. As a large multi-agency program, CCSP was required to conform to
the agency-specific guidelines with a workable agreement among the CCSP agencies.
After several reviews among the CCSP agency IQA specialists and OMB, an agreed
approach to the preparation of multiple agency science documents was developed in
early 2005.
Federal Advisory Committee Act Requirements: The CCSP product development

process was constructed to be transparent and fully open to public comments
consistent with the goals of the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA). In early
2005, CCSP sought and received the opinion of Counsel and the General Services
Administration (GSA) that FACA-compliant committees would be needed for all
CCSP assessment products that are prepared by expert groups that involved both
governmental and non-governmental personnel. The process to establish the FACA
CEQ 016871
conunittees is underway at those agencies whose product development process

triggers the FACA requirement. .W~ .~~~~ .~~~ .~e: _P.~?cJ.~~.tic?~. ~~~~~~~ j~~~@~9:~ ....'"1;::"" Deleted: cess
Table 1 will be impossible to meet ifthere are any significant delays in arranging for 'i,<:" Deleted: is nowestablishingthe
the necessary new FACA-chartered committees in each of the CCSP product lead "\" ". Deleted: is working with each agency
agencies. '~\\ that bas a lead on ("" T more products to
track the
"".":::'> Deleted:
Each of these administrative steps described above has impacted the production schedule --
Deleted: FACA process.
for the CCSP products. Approaches to addressing these issues are being devised, and as
Deleted: chartersin eachof the
they are completed, we expect a more routine.p.~?,~~~.t?:()~.iIJ,.~~,l:ll?~?,~g'p,ert~9: , . agencies that leadthedevelopmentof one
or more assessment products.
The revised schedule and scope of the CCSP products reflected in this letter has been Deleted:
reviewed by the CCSP Principals I. If there are any evolutionary changes to the revised Deleted: We believethat these issues
plans, we will communicate them to you directly. arc now largely"behindus" and we
expect rapid
Other Important CCSP Actions
The GCRA was enacted in 1990, and both knowledge and information needs have
evolved substantially since that time. In recognition of this fact. the CCSP Strategic Plan
highlights three approaches to the application of scientific information to decision
making: I) scientific assessments; 2) resources to support adaptive management; and 3)
comparative evaluation of policy options. These approaches, which are descnbed in the
CCSP Strategic Plan, provide a more comprehensive framework for decision support than
was envisioned in the GCRA, which focused primarily on only the first of the three
CCSP decision support approaches.
CCSP has several other ongoing activities that provide information to the public and the
scientific and decisionmaking communities. The CCSP Office maintains a website -
http://www.climatescience.gov- that includes CCSP's recent activities and
announcements, disseminations, current climate events, solicitations for reviews of
climate documents, and archives of other relevant information. In addition, CCSP
publishes an annual program document, Our Changing Planet, to update Congress on
program goals, milestones, and budget information.
CCSP also has two new major activities ~~ .~~~~,~~~@.."':1~g.~~~~~~.~~.1??-~ ..._ ,.'.{Deleted: and an offerto Congress
decisionrnaking and scientific communities on our processes and assessment
deliverables:
Change Science Program Workshop: Climate Science in Support of

Deeislonmaking: CCSP will hold a public workshop on November 14-16, 2005 in
Arlington, V A. The CCSP Workshop will address the capability of climate science to
inform decisionmaking and will serve as a forum to address the progress and future
plans regarding CCSP's decision-support deliverables. The Workshop will provide
I The CCSP Principals consist of senior representatives from each of the I3 CCSP agencies, the Council on
Environmental Quality, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the Offke of Management and
Budget.
CEQ 016872
an opportunity for scientists and user communities to discuss decisionmaker needs

and future application of scientific information on climate variability and change, as
well as discussion on expected outcomes ofCCSP's research and assessment
activities that are necessary for sound resource management, adaptive planning and
policy. More information on the workshop can be found at
http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005.
Expanded CCSPINRC Advisory Contract: In 2004, CCSP established an ad hoc

committee to make recommendations for enhancing the NRC advisory relationship
with CCSP. As a result of the committee meetings and extended dialogue with senior
representatives ofthe NRC, CCSP has recently expanded its contract with. the NRC to
incorporate important new NRC advice to the program. The enhanced NRC advisory
assignment involves three areas:
1) Overall NRC advice on the CCSP research program on a continuing basis

over the next three years, involving a broad-based expert committee convened
by the NRC;
2) A comparative evaluation of relevant previous climate change assessments

conducted around the world, to provide background information for the
assessments being prepared by CCSP in compliance with the GCRA; and
3) Designated support from two existing committees of the NRC that are well
positioned to support CCSP with expertise in areas central to CCSP's core
responsibilities, the Climate Research Committee and the Committee on the
Human Dimensions of Global Change.
The Administration has endorsed the CCSP/NRC relationship to ensure that CCSP
receives independent and credible scientific advice, as CCSP continues to implement
its Strategic Plan".... . . Deleted: '"
T •••••••• _.0 _ • • • • • • • _ ••• •••••• _ •• + ••• • _'0 •• • __ •• _ • • • • • • • _. •• _. __ ._ •• •••• . Deleted:'!
Offer of Periodic Dialogue with
Congressional Members and Staff:
Concluding Comments CCSP is pleasedto offer periodic
consultations withMembers and staff'to
CCSP is committed to producing climate science and assessment information, ensuring provideupdateson progress in preparing
that the science is relevant and current, and disseminating this information in a way that ccsp's Synthesis and Assessment
Productsand to reviewmethods and
is useful to the Congress, other decisionmakers, stakeholders, the media and the public. needs for assessment.~
CCSP, together with the hundreds of climate scientists producing the required assessment Formatted: Indent: Left: 18 pt
products, is accelerating its production as much as possible, but we will take care not to
compromise the integrity of the science findings in pursuit of rapid production.
We look forward to further dialogue with you on these important issues and will be.. ...... + ....... { Formatted: Indent: Left: 0 pt
pleased to offer periodic consultations with Members and staff to provide updates on ·.. ·······{'-D-=e1-=eted~_:_. --'
progress in preparing CCSP's Synthesis and Assessment Products and to review methods
and needs for assessment.
CEQ 016873
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CmCULATE OR CITE
Sincerely,
James R. Mahoney, PhD.

Assistant Secretary of Commerce for
Oceans and Atmosphere, and
Director of the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program
CC: Thomas E. Graedel, Chair ofNRC Committee to Review the CCSP Strategic Plan
John B. Stephenson, Government Accountability Office
CEQ 016874
.
"
Page 5: [1] Deleted DOC 7/13/2005 4:57:00 PM

w
Page 5: [1] Deleted DOC 7/13/20054:57:00 PM
Yes
on
Page 5: [2] Deleted DOC 7/13/2005 4:57:00 PM
Yes
Page 5: [4] Deleted jmahoney 7/13/2005 2:31:00 PM
NSF Funded
(CCSPO
Page 5: [4] Deleted jmahoney 7/13/20052:31:00 PM
)
CEQ 016875
Page 1 of 3

Sent: Wednesday, July 13,20055:48 PM
To: Ahsha Tribble
. Cc: danderson@doc.gov
Subject: RE: [ccsp] Document for Conference call on Wednesday July 13 at 1:30p.m.
Ahsha - that sounds like a good approach. Watch for an email from me re: Lautenberg later tonight. Thanks,
Bryan

Sent: Wednesday, July 13, 20055:15 PM
To: Hannegan, Bryan J.
Cc: danderson@doc.gov
Subject: Re: [ccsp] Document for Conference call on Wednesday July 13 at 1:30p.m.
Bryan,
I incorporated your comments except for one (see previous email with attachments). I did not
include a list of the other products as a response to the 2nd GAO recommendation. Instead,
we removed the yes/no column from the table because we felt that we may get into battle over
what criteria was used to say a product was required or not. It could be argued that some of
the products marked no, should be yes, etc. Therefore, by removing the table and focusing
our response on the 8 assessment areas as stated in the recommendation, there seemed to
be no need to list other products.
If you want to discuss these or other edits, please feel free to call me at any time. Also, I
received your email about the Lautenberg letter. We will look for your response.
Thank you for your time,

Ahsha
Hannegan, Bryan J. wrote:
Ahsha - attached in redline form are my comments on the followup letter discussed on the
conference call this afternoon. Good job!
Thanks,
Bryan
From: ccsp-bounces@usgcrp.gov [mailto:ccsp-bounces@usgcrp.gov] On Behalf Of Ahsha Tribble

Sent: Wednesday, July 13, 2005 9:22 AM
Cc: ccsp@usgcrp.o_C"!
Subject: [ccsp] Document for Conference call on Wednesday July 13 at 1:30p.m.
CCSP Principals,
Attached is the DRAFT letter that Dr. Mahoney will send to interested committees
as a follow up to the June 16 DeMint letter discussed at the last Principals
meeting.
This DRAFT letter outlines a path forward to comply with Section 106 and complete
the assessments that has not been agreed to by the CCSP Principals. The
O{L~lO~;)G
A "'-""Ct'Q 016877
Page 2 of3
purpose of this call is to agree on the language in the letter (with modifications as
needed) so that we can move this quickly through the LRM (interagency) clearance
process.
Please do not circulate or cite this document.
If you have any questions, please contact me at 202-482-3567 or send me an

email.
Thank you,
Ahsha
Moss, Richard H wrote:
With apologies for the late notice, Dr. Mahoney would like to convene a
conference call at 1:30 p.m. on Wednesday July 13 to provide an update
on the July 15 letter. Please dial 1-800-516-9896, code 888503. Ii your
Agency's principal cannot be on the call, please designate a senior
representative to participate. Also, please check your email tomorrow
morning justin case we circulate an update regarding the call.
Thank you.
Ri
Richard H. Moss, Ph.D.

Director, Climate Change Science Program Office
(Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate
Change Research Initiative)
1717 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 250
Email: rmoss@usgcrp.gov
Telephone: 1 (202) 419-3476
Fax: 1 (202) 223-3065
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, ph.D.
For Ocea~s and Atmosphere
HCHB!Room 5804
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
A , ..... ''CEQ 016878

Page 3 of 3
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, ph.D..
HCHB/Room 5804
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
,I< ~CEQ 016879

Page 1 of 1

Sent: Friday, July 15,20053:06 PM
To: Ahsha Tribble
Subject: RE: Follow up letter - QUESTION ON Sm.1MARY
None of the Principals argued against the approach of incorporating S&A summaries in OCP on the call, so .. n at
a loss as to why we are changing now. As a program report, I think it is the right place to report to Congress on
what the program has done - the S&A products. I believe we are answering the mail - not necessary in the way
they want it (a single National Assessment) but in the way we intended to do it in the Strategic Plan. .

sent: Friday, July 15,20053:05 PM
Subject: Follow up letter - QUESTION ON SUMMARY
Bryan,
There was some concern expressed among some of the Principals about the summary
document.
1) Do we really want to change the intent of OCP - a program report - which we have been
pushing and telling Revkin that there are no findings in these documents. '
2) Are we really answering the mail by putting individual summaries in OCP? They are really
looking for a summary of all of the reports?
If you agree with their comments, can we replace the language with:
"CCSP will prepare a summary report incorporating the findings of the Products required by the
aCRA."
This is the only point left to resolve.
Thanks,
Ahsha
********************************************
HCHB!Room 5804
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
.,. ~ 'ClfQ 016956

Page 1 of 4
From: Ahsha Tribble [Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov]

Sent: Thursday, August 11, 2005 6:45 PM
Subject: Re: FW: Suggested Response re: NIT story on temperature trends
We are not releasing the S&A product on August 22 due to FACA issues. We have completed
stalled their momentum while we are working to stand up the FACA committee. Several
months ago (I believe just after the NAS review), we had proposed a June, then July, and then
an August release date for public review of the final document. However, I do not know who
gave Revkin that specific date - we have several outside authors working on this product so it
will be hard to pin that down.
Are we releasing the S&A product? How does Revkin know about it.
Bryan Bannegan
Associate Director for Energy and Transportation
Council on Environmental Quality
-----Original Message-----
From: Ahsha Tribble <Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov>
To: Hannegan, Bryan J. <Bryan J. Hannegan@ceg.eop.gov>
Sent: Thu Aug 11 18:20:42 2005
Subject: Re: FW: Suggested Response re: NYT story on temperature trends
Hi Bryan,
Dr. Mahoney deferred to Tom Karl because Dr. Mahoney is on vacation until Monda
Q: Do you have an impression of the three papers that came out today,
separate from your impression of the CCSP product?
A: The three are directly related. These are things that we've been
working on for a while and we had troubles with reconciling a number of
issues.
Q: I've heard that sometimes it was like a boxing match.
A: We had issues with radiosondes, solar packages on satellites and
other measurements. Ultimately it came down to understanding our data
sets. We worked hard on doing what was necessary. UAH went back and
recomputed their work based on the group's work. None of this would
file://G:\FOIA - Climate\2005\Deliberative\7-9.05\Re FW Suggested Response re NYT sto ... 4/12/2«9?Q 017178

Page 2 of 4
have happened if we wouldn't have worked it out collaboratively.
Q: Is the draft of the S&A coming out Aug 22?
A: I wouldn't want to give you a specific date. I would say fall.
Q:1'll just say soon. I understand that these three efforts were
spurred by the CCSP effort.
A: When you get scientists all together face to face to work on a
specific goal, it's amazing what you can accomplish that goes above and
beyond what we would normally accomplish by phone, email etc.
Ahsha - I underst~nd Dr. Mahoney was asked for his views regarding these papers
See below. Please contact me with any questions.
Thanks,
Bryan

To: Perino, Dana M.; Barnett, Megan H.; O'Brien, Maureen R.; Olsen, Kathie L.;
Subject: Suggested Response re: NYT story on temperature trends
Andy Revkin will 'be writing a story in the NYT tomorrow regarding these three c
President Bush is committed to ensuring that his climate change policie
*
The United States spends nearly $2 billion per year in climate science
*
The research papers published in this week's Science Express -- support
*
Like all scientific research findings, these papers will be subject to
file://G:\FOIA - Climate\2005\Deliberative\7-9.05\Re FW SUggested Response re NYT sto... 4/l2/~g~ 017179

Page 3 of 4
*
President Bush believes that climate change is a serious long-term issu
*
The accelerated development and deployment of cleaner, more efficient e
*
The United States is addressing climate change through a comprehensive,
Please feel free to forward to agencies/others as appropriate.
'Thanks, Bryan
-----Original Message-----
From: Billie Christian [mailto:christian6@11nl.gov]
Subject: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory News Release (Climate Model)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory News Release (Climate Model)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 11, 2005
NR-05-08-05
Contact: Anne M. Stark

Phone: (925) 422-9799
E-mail: stark8@11nl.gov
NEW OBSERVATIONS AND CLIMATE MODEL DATA CONFIRM RECENT WARMING OF THE TROPICAL
LIVERMORE, Calif. - For the first time, new climate observations and computer m
Over the past decade, scientific evidence from a variety of sources has implica
Until recently, climate modelers compared their simulations with temperatures f
Three papers published in today's edition of Science Express shed light on this
The computer models analyzed in the Livermore study show that in the deep tropi
The new satellite and weather balloon data described in the first two Science E
"This strongly suggests that there is no longer any fundamental discrepancy bet
"The new observational data helps to remove a major stumbling block in our unde
Santer led an international team of scientists, including Livermore researchers
Founded in 1952, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has a mission to ensure
- END -
Laboratory news releases and photos are also available at http://www.llnl.gov/P
file:IIG:\FOIA - Climate\2005\Deliberative\7-9.05\Re FW SUggested Response re NYT sto ... 4112/~~Q 017180

Page 4 of 4
Billie Virginia Christian
Public Affairs Office
Media Relations
P.O. Box 808, L-797
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
7000 East Avenue
Livermore - CA 94551
Email: christian6@11nl.gov
Phone (925) 423-6627, Fax: (925) 424-2780
********************************************
HCHB!Room 5804
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
file://G:\FOIA - Climate\2005\Deliberative\7-9.05\Re FW Suggested Response re NIT sto... 4/12/1?H6017181

Re Greenwire
From: St. Martin, Michele M.
Sent: Monday, April 03, 2006 5:28 PM
TO: Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov
subject: Re: Greenwire
Thanks!
-----original Message-----
From: Kent Laborde <Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov>
TO: St. Martin, Michele M. <Michele_M._St.Martin@ceq.eop.gov>
sent: Man Apr 03 17:20:18 2006
Subject: Re: Greenwire
It was a pretty easy interview. It didn't touch on politics. I stressed the support
and backing for the program, and emphasized that it was on strong footing. r'm not
sure who else they will quote. It should come out tomorrow.
Kent
St. Martin, Michele M.wrote:
>sounds good, make sure you reiterite how the committed we are to this program and
the support it has. Thanks!
>
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde <Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov>
>TO: St. Martin, Michele M. <Michele-M._St.Martin@ceq.eop.gov>
>Sent: Mon Apr 03 16:32:03 2006
>subject: Greenwire
>
>Michele,
>Andrew Freedman ca11 ed 1ooki ng for comments on the vi abi 1 i ry of CCSP
>w;th the changes in leadership. I will provide him with some background
>on how the program works to illustrate that the changes in leadership
>will not interfere with the day-to-day operations. If the discussion
>turns into questions on the political realm, I will send him to you.
>
>Kent
>
>
>
Page 1
004:194:
CEQ 017598
RE media plan for rollo-out of cCSP 1.1
From: St. Martin, Michele M. .
Sent: wednesday, April 19, 2006 10:04 AM
To: Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov .
subject: Re: media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
can you resend plan.
-----original Message-----
From: Kent Laborde <Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov>
TO: St. Martin, Michele M. <Michele_M._St.Martin@ceq.eop.gov>
sent: wed Apr 19 10:03:04 2006
subject: Re: media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
I am available today to talk about this. Are we on hold for planning on thi S unt i 1
you give the green light?
St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>plan on reviewing later today. I will call later.
>
>-----original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde [mailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>Sent: Tuesday, April 18, 2006 12:25 PM .
>To: St. Martin, Michele M.
>subject: Re: media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
>
>Michele,
>Have you had a chance to look this over? It looks as though we will be
>rolling this out next week.what's driving the timeline on this is NSTC
>approval. we are expecting to be through the process by Friday
>afternoon. we can expect Hill briefings (Eric webster at NOAA is
>setting those up) early next week. The media availability will be the
>day after the Hill briefings. I would, however, like to queue things up
>this week if possible to make sure that the reporters have it on their radar.
>please let me know if you have any questions. I will give you more
>details when I find out definite dates for this.
>
>Kent
>
>St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>
>
>
»we have time to discuss this next. week ri9ht or do we need to do this
»before? I am trying to prepare for the ASla pacific mtg in Berkley
»next
»
»
>
>
>
»week and will not be able to give my full attention until Tuesday.. OK?
»
»-----original Message-----
»From: Kent Laborde Lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
»Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2006 2:29 PM
»TO: St. Martin, Michele M.
»cc: Jordan St.John
»Subject: media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
» .
Page 1
004:196
CEQ 017604
RE media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
»Michele,
»This is the first of the Climate change Science program's Synthesis
»and
»
»
>
>
>
»Assessment Products to be released. The President's program has been
»faulted as a "stalling" technique where it was easier to delay action
»until'more research is conducted. since then the research process has
»been slow and played into the stalling argument.
»
»with the publication of 1.1, we can demonstrate the benefits of the
»CSSP and highlight the value that this process adds'to ,the overall
»climate-research objective. this will be the main talking point of the
»availability. The president's program is what made this significant
»scientific product possible.
»
»The subject of 1.1 is in and of itself a news-maker. The findings of
»the authors remove one of the key disconnects between modeling and
»observations. It reconciles differences in methods of measurement, as
»well as observations,and modeling.
»
»Ideally, we would issue the press release the mornin~ of the
»availability to the targeted reporters. That would glve them time to
»understand the subject better and ask informed questions. The release
»would go out to a broader audience at the end of the availability.
»
»The reporters tar~eted are those who have covered cCSP in the past are
»also those most llkely to pick up on the story of 1.1. Here is the
»list
»
»
>
>
>
»I've identified:
»John Fialka, wall Street Journal
»John Heilprin, AP
»Pete Spots, christian science Monitor
»Andy Revkin, New York Times
»Jenny Hogan, Nature
»Dick Kerr, science
»Dan vergano, USA Today
»Eric Roston, Time
»Juliet Eilperin, washington Post
»Miguel Bustillo, LA Times
»Tom Doggett, Reuters
»
»The main subject at the availability will be Tom Karl, the lead author.
»
»
>
>
>
»Also present will be peter schultz who can address the big-picture
»aspects of CCSP, and will be able to talk about the progress of other
»synthesis and assessment products.
» '
»The media roll-out will be the day after a series of Hill briefings.
»Congress will be well informed of the subject before it is in the
»papers.
Page 2
CEQ 017605
RE media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
»
»please let me know if you have any questions, Kent
»
»
»
»
»
>
>
>
Page 3
CEQ 017606
RE eesp release SAP 1.1 Temp Trends NOAA edits
From: Kent Laborde [Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2006 1:48 PM
To: St. Martin, Michele M.
subject: Re: eesp release: SAP 1.1 Temp Trends NOAA edits
Mi chel e ,. .
Thanks for getting back to me on this. They synthesize available work/research that
has been done. When all put together, the individual bits of research illustrate
that there are consistent temperature trends. I've lifted the wording almost
directly from the report itself.
I'm not fond of the headline anyway, if "prove" is too strong.
thanks,
Kent
>Kent -
>1 will get back to you later in the week, but just 'ookin~ at it for a
>sec .. the word "prove" in the headline, I think is misleadlng .. This
>report does not prove anything in my understanding - none of this is
>new science ... ? I need to look over this a bit longer .. I was under the
>impressions that these reports are about the best available climate
>science thus far from all the work we have done... My thoughts so far,
>but let me give it more attention. Thanks!
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde Lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>Sent: wednesday, April 12, 2006 12:10 PM
>TO: St. Martin, Michele M.
>subject: cesp release: SAP 1.1 Temp Trends NOAA edits
>
>Michele,
>I've attached the release for the first eesp synthesis and Assessment
>product. I would like to have it ready for when the product actually
>comes out (within the next week or two). please let me know if you have
>any questions on this. I'm also planning on having a phone availability
>with the lead author. The main message 1S that eesp is adding benefit
>to the scientific body. Also, after laying all of the ground work, we
>are seeing the results of valuable, world-class research that has been
>conducted -- this is the first of several products that will be
>published this year under eesp.
>
>Kent
>202-482-5757
>
>
>
page 1
0041.85
CEQ 017611
Re CCSP synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1 one-page3r
From: Kent Laborde [Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
. Sent: Friday, April 21, 2006 1:21 PM
subject: Re: CCSP synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1 one-pager
Michele,
I hate to do this, but we just were handed a last-minute revision to language. Can I
. pull this document? We'll need to revise the. talking points and some of the language
on the press release. I'm really sorry to have to do this.
Kent
>These are internal?
>
>From: Kent Laborde lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>sent: Friday, April 21, 2006 12:33 PM
>subject: cCSP synthesis and Assessment product 1.1 one-pager
>
>
>Mi chel e,
>sorry so long to get these back to you. I had to get these cleared here
>before going out. Let me know if this is what you were looking for.
>Also, let me know if you need more information on this.
>
>Kent
>
>
>
Page 1
004:186
CEQ 017612
CCSP Product 1.1 on Temperature Trends
DATE: May 2,2006
Tllv1E: 10:00 AM
LOCATION: 2318 Rayburn Bouse Office Building
WHAT: Briefing
mu, STAFF: House Science Committee Staff and LA's (Amy Carroll
coordinating)
TOPIC: CCSP Product 1.1
NOAA: Tom Karl & Ahsha Tribble
OLA: Robertson
OFA:
DATE: May 2, 2006

TIME: 11:30 AM
LOCATION: . Hart 425 Senate Office Building
WHAT: Briefing
HILL STAFF: Senate Commerce Committee Staff and LA's (Garret Graves and
Margaret Spring coordinating)
OLA: Robertson
OFA:
PRE-BRIEF: May 2, 2006

TIME: 8:30AM
LOCATION: 5225 HCRB
BACKGROUND: CCSP Product 1.1 is being targeted for release on 5/2/2006. The
topic is "Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere -- steps for
understanding and reconciling differences."
This report provides a significant update to the science on the past

differences between the amount of warming at the surface versus
the amount of warming above the surface from satellite and
radiosonde observations. In recent decades, the global-average
warming that has been observed at the surface is also realized
above the surface, which is consistent with climate model output.
However, discrepancies still remain in the tropics. The report
identified and corrected errors in the satellite and radiosonde data
and now the discrepancies between the surface and above surface
observations no longer exists.
004:161. CEQ 017651

CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1
A primary objective of the U. S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is to provide the
best possible scientific information to support public discussion and government and private
sector decision-making on key climate-related issues.
To help meet this objective, the CCSP has identified an initial set of 21 synthesis and
assessment products that address its highest priority research, observation, and decision-
support needs.
This Synthesis and Assessment Report, the first of the 21 Reports, focuses on
understanding the causes of the reported difference~ between independently produced
data sets of atmospheric temperature trends from the surface through the troposphere to
the lower stratosphere. These independent data sets include those produced by computer
models, as well as various forms of observation.
Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and
higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the validity of climate models used
to detect and attribute of observed climate change.
Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while early versions
of satellite data showed little or no warming above the surface.
There is no longer evidence of such a discrepancy. This is an important revision to and

update of the conclusions of earlier reports from the U.S. National Research Council and
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Since those reports, errors have been identified and corrected in the satellite
data and other temperature observations.
These data now show global average warming in the atmosphere similar to the warming
observed at the surface and consistent with the results from climate models. Discrepancies
remain to be resolved in the tropics.
The recent evidence has increased confidence in our understanding of observed climatic
changes and their causes.
This report promises to be of significant value to decision-makers, and to the expert

scientific and stakeholder communities. Readers of this report will find that new
observations, data sets, analyses, and climate model simulations enabled the Author Team
to resolve many of the issues noted by the NRC and the IPCe in their earlier Reports.
Two key questions being asked by policy makers are: 1. how certain is the science
regarding past warming and 2. how good are the models that are being used to make
estimates of future climate conditions. This product addresses both of these questions.
Regarding the first question, 1.1 concludes that previous global-scale inconsistencies
between observed surface and upper-air temperature trends have largely been resolved.
Regarding the second question, the report concludes that global-scale inconsistencies
between model simulations and observations of upper air trends have largely been
reconciled, thereby increasing confidence somewhat in the ability of state-of-the-art climate
models to simulate a key atmospheric feature.
004:163
CEQ 017652
Q: What does this report mean?
A: Previous reported discrepancies were used to challenge reliability of climate models and
reality of human-induced global warming. Specifically, surface warming was substantial,
while early versions of satellites and weather balloons showed little warming higher in the
atmosphere
The new findings presented in this assessment indicate:
• This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and
weather balloon data were identified and corrected.
• This is an important revision to previous NRC and IPCC reports.
• For recent decades all current atmospheric data sets now show global-average
warming that is similar to surface warming, consistent with global climate model
simulations.
• There remains unresolved discrepancies within the tropics.
• Overall, recent observations and model simulations increase our confidence in
our understanding of observed climate changes and their causes.
Q: Is this a call for action?
A: This is a statement of scientific finding and is intended to be of use to policy makers.

Although it is intended to be of use to policy makers, it is not policy-prescriptive. All CCSP
findings are policy-relevant, yet policy-neutral.
Q: Is this a smoking gun?
A: The field of climate change science is sufficiently complex that there are no smoking
guns or singular points of clarity. This report does add confidence to our overall
understanding, but also identifies specific gaps in our ability to adequately monitor and
ultimately understand some aspects of climate change. S&A Product 1.1 helps break down
barriers in our understanding of the complex global systems.
While S&A Product 1.1 has provided us with greater confidence in our model projections,
there remain discrepancies that point to inadequate monitoring capabilities and possibly
important gaps in our understanding.
Q: Is this the opinion of a group of like-minded individuals?
A: The CCSP process is designed to engage a broad, divergent and encompassing group
of stakeholders. To do this, we cast a wide net to receive input from a wide variety of
scientific viewpoints. In putting together an S&A Product, we draw from existing peer-
reviewed scientific publications.
Certain aspects of S&A Product 1.1 were generated through the Assessment process itself
as authors identified gaps and opportunities to close some of these. Many of the members
of the NOAA-led author team went through a peer-review process to publish their work, so
it could be used in Product 1.1. In this way, the CCSP process also resulted in accelerated
understanding of the field.
CEQ 017653
file://lGIIFOIA 0/020-0/020Climate/2006/deliberativelFW%20Fwd%2OCCSP%201.1%20Hill%20briefs%20SCHEDULE.htrn
From: Cauthen, Khary 1.

Sent: Monday, May 01, 20063:00 PM
To: St. Martin, Michele M.; Cohen, Ashley
Subject: FW: [Fwd: CCSP 1.1 Hill briefs SCHEDULE]
"'-
Sent: Monday, May 01, 20063:00 PM
To: Fryberger, Teresa A.; Cauthen, Khary 1.; Petro, Andrea M.
Subject: [Fwd: CCSP 1.1 Hill briefs SCHEDULE]
FYI...
-------- Original Message --------

Subject:CCSP 1.1 Hill briefs SCHEDULE
Date:Mon, 01 May 2006 14:20:24 -0400
From:Jason Robertson <iason.Robertson@noaa.gov>
To:Jason Robertson <Jason.Robertson@noaa.gov>, "Thomas.R.Karl" <Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.
gOY>, Jennifer.Sprague@noaa.gov, Iharrelson@DOC.GOV, Ahsha.Tnbble@noaa.gov, Eric.
Webster@noaa.gov
CC:Howard.S.Marks <Howard.S.Marks@noaa.gov>, CHRIS SCHEVE <CScheve@doc.gov>
References:<OIYL0043RL8BU6@hub-east.nems.noaa.gov>
Here is my l-pager with the schedule for tomorrow's briefings on the CCSP Product 1.1. Note the
updates to the locations and the timing of the pre-briefing. We expect higher attendance on the House
side (>8) and 4-8 on the Senate side.
-=Jason
DATE: May 2,2006

TIME: 10:00 AM
LOCATION: 2318 Rayburn House Office Building
WHAT: Briefing
HILL STAFF: House Science Committee Staff and LA's (Amy Carroll coordinating)
OLA: Robertson
OFA:
DATE: May 2,2006

TIME: 11:30 AM . 0041.75
LOCATION: Hart 425 Senate Office Building
file:/I/GIIF'OIA %20-%20Climate/2006/deliberativelFW%20Fwd%20CCSP%201.1 %20Hill%20briefs%20SCHEDULE.htrn (J of 2)4/12/2007 1:32:27PM
CEQ 017658
file:IIIG/fFOIA %20-%2OClimale/2006/deliberative!FW%20Fwd%20CCSP%201.1%20Hill%20briefs%20SCHEDULE.htm
WHAT: Briefing
mu, STAFF: Senate Commerce Committee Staff and LA's (Garret Graves and Margaret
Spring coordinating)
OLA: Robertson
OFA:
PRE-BRIEF: May 2, 2006

TIME: 8:30 AM
LOCATION: 5225 HCHB
BACKGROUND: CCSP Product 1.1 is being targeted for release on 5/2/2006.

The topic is "Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere -- steps for understanding
and reconciling differences."
This report provides a significant update to the science on the

past differences between the amount of warming at the surface versus the amount of
warming above the surface from satellite and radiosonde observations. In recent
decades, the global-average warming that has been observed at the surface is also
realized above the surface, which is consistent with climate model output. However,
discrepancies still remain in the tropics. The report identified and corrected errors in
the satellite and radiosonde data and now the discrepancies between the surface and
above surface observations no longer exists.
********************************************
HCRB/Room 5804
washington, DC 20230
202 - 4 8 2 - 3567 (DOC)
202-422-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
file://IGI/FOIA%20-%20Climalel2006/deliberalivelFW%20Fwd%2OCCSP%201.1 %20Hill%20briefs%20SCHEDULE.htm (2 of 2)411212007 1:32:27 PM
CEQ 017659
Re constituent meeting
Sent: Friday, May 05, 2006 2:00 PM
TO: Kent Laborde
subject: RE: constituent meeting
Let mw run by Jim.. But your thoughts are understood.
-----original Message----- ~.
From: Kent Laborde [mailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
sent: Friday, May 05, 2006 1:59 PM
subject: Re: constituent meeting
No press. About your question about OSTP, I would think that including EOP in the
briefing might move the discussion to the political. We want to steer clear of that
and keep it squarely in the scientific. Your thoughts?
>sounds like a good idea .. no press right?
>
>From: Kent Laborde lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>Sent: Friday, May 05, 2006 1:47 PM
>Subject: constituent meeting
>
>Mi chel e,
>I.wanted to let you know that we are planning a constituent meeting May
>17 to discuss CCSP 1.1. It will be at the Department of Commerce
>auditorium at 9 a.m. I don't have a realistic idea of how many people
>will attend, but we are inviting NGOs, scientists, educators and others.
>
>This is not congressional or political in any way. It is just an
>opportunity to address scientific information contained in the document.
>
>Rayder has approved and supports the meeting. The presenters are the
>authors Please let me know if you have any questions about this.
>
>Kent
>
>
>
>
Page 1
0041.89
CEQ 017673
RE CommWG CCSP SA 1.1 briefing
sent: wednesday, May 10, 2006 2:17 PM
To: Kent Laborde
cc: Hellmer, Kristen A. .
subject: RE: [commwG] CCSP s&A 1.1 briefing
.. - I disagree only that I think it is important to state ... I would not su~gest ..
turning anyone away, but at least they know that comments are not for attrlbution.
Anyway .. You have my two cents.
BTW -please cc Kristen Hellmer my deputy on our exchanges - Thanks!
-----original Message-~---
From: Kent Laborde Lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
Sent: wednesday, May 10, 2006 2:15 PM
TO: St. Martin, Michele M. .
Subject: Re: [commWG] CCSP s&A 1.1 briefing
we don't have grounds to turn ..hem away if they do come. Reporters are not
specifically targeted. I do not expect any there, since it had so much media play
already. There is no remaining news value.
>I still think you need to express that because this could be sent to
>anyone anywhere - how do you plan on controlling that when you make no
>statement in the letter ... o a reporter could show up to observe and say
>there was no mention either way ... ?
>
>From: Kent Laborde Lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>Sent: wednesday, May 10, 2006 2:11 PM
>To: St. Martin, Michele M.
>subject: Re: [commWG] CCSP S&A 1.1 briefing
>
>They have not been invited.
>
>St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>
>
>
»Is this open or closed press?
»
»-----original Message-----
»From: outreach-bounces@usgcrp.gov [mailto:outreach-bounces@usgcrp.gov]
»On Behalf of Kent Laborde
»Sent: wednesday, May 10, 2006 2:04 PM
»To: outreach@usgcrp.gov
»subj~ct: [CommWG] CCSP s&A 1.1 briefing
»
»CIWG members,
»
»We are tryin~ to encourage as large a participation as possible at the
»public brieflng on s&A 1.1. I've attached an invitation letter.
»please send the text to anyone you feel would benefit from attending.
»The meeting is open to everyone.
»
»Thank you,
»Kent Laborde
»
»text follows:
»
Page 1
004188
CEQ 017675
»On behalf of the U.S. climate change science program, you are invited
»to attend a briefing and discussion on the recently released report
»"/Temperature Trends in· the Lower Atmosphere: steps for understanding
»and Reconciling Differences/," the Climate change science program
»synthesis and Assessment 1.1
»
»please ·feel free to extend the invitation to others you may feel would
»also benefit from attending.
»
»when: wednesday, May 17 from 9:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
»where: Department of Commerce Herbert C. Hoover Building Auditorium
»who: Dr. Tom Karl, Director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center,
»Asheville, NC will lead the discussion. Also participatih~ are: ** Dr.
»V. Ramaswamy, NOAA Dr. John R. christy, univ. of Alabama 1n Huntsville
»Dr. Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA or. chris E. Forest, MIT Dr. Benjamin D.
»santer, DOE Dr. Peter W. Thorne, U.K. Met. Office Dr. Tom M. L.
»wigley,
»
»
>
>
>
»NSF NCAR
»
»The u.S. Climate change Science program issued 1.1, the first of 21
»synthesis and Assessment S&A products, earlier this month with
»findings
»
»
>
>
>
»that improve our understanding of climate change and human influences
»on temperature trends.
»
»The report tackles some of the long-standing difficulties that have
»impeded understanding of changes in atmospheric temperatures and the
»basic causes of these changes.
»
»According to the published report, there is no longer a discrepancy in
»the rate of global average temperature increase for the surface
»compared with higher levels in the atmosphere. This discrepancy had
»prev;ously been used to challenge the validity of climate models used
»to detect and attribute the causes of observed climate change. This· is
»an important revision to and update of the conclusions of earlier
»reports from the u.s. National Research council and the
»Intergovernmental panel on climate Change.
»
»please R.S.V.P. if you plan to attend at
>>http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/climate.html
»
»For more information, visit http://www.climatescience.gov
>><http://www.climatescience.gov/>
>>http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sapl-1/finalreport/default.h
»t
»m
>>http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease2may20
»0
»6
».htm
»
» .
»*please have your picture identification when you come to the event.*
Page 2
CEQ 017676
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
>
>
>
Page 3
CEQ 017677
0330 -, ,. 0001
, DRAFT for SGCR/CCSPO Comment 12/14/06
Overview of Process for Development of USGCRP-CCRI Strategic Plan
In the last two years, federal agencies with research programs on climate and global change have
worked with members of the research community on two interagency strategic planning exercises. In
the first, from June 2000 to June 2001, the USGCRP prepared a draft strategic plan to meet the
requirements of the Global Change Research Act of 1990. From June to August 2001, an interagency
group planned the CCRI, as directed by President Bush, with leadership from the Department of
Commerce. The Administration has asked that the two planning processes, together with perspectives
from related IPCC and NRC reports, be merged, taking account of scientific developments and the
President's request for short term (2 to 5 years) scientific reporting focused on information to support
public debate and decision making about climate change issues.
Focus of integrated plan
1. Decision support
~ Short-term focus (2 to 5 years): In response to directives of the President, the short-term focus will
be on climate change reporting and decision support:
• Develop focused reports (illustrative examples)
o Climate sensitivity-reasons for differences and timeline for resolution?
o Carbon cycle-natural variability and potential for control?
o Black carbon-s-climate change and local air pollution co-benefits?
• Compare alternative strategies (illustrative examples)
o Environmental, energy, and economic effects of different technology strategies
o "Hansen scenario" of controls on aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors
o Comparing adaptation and mitigation options
• Support decision making on resource management and protection of natural environments
o Develop decision support methods and systems to apply observations/monitoring and
projections to place-based effects of concern
~ Long-term focus (5 to 10 years and beyond): providing targeted information on global change to
support decision making [where global change will continue to be defined as "changes in the
global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water
resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth
to sustain life." GCRA 1990J
• The program will also develop focused reports, compare strategies, and support decision making
on the full range of global change issues
These objectives will require increased emphasis on how technologies, the economy, demographics,
and other aspects of society will interact with climate variability and change, the atmosphere and
oceans, nutrient and water cycles, ecosystems, and land use/cover change.
2. Science base
A broad USGCRP and a focused CCRI are essential to support decisions because climate change
cannot be considered in isolation from other environmental and socio-economic trends.
Research elements will include atmospheric composition, climate variability/change (including

climate modeling), carbon cycle, water cycle, ecosystem-climate interactions, human health, land
use(cover change, and human contributions and responses to global change.
Page I
002364
CEQ 017829
DRAFT for SGCRlCCSPO Comment 12/14/06
In the plan, special emphasis will be placed on CCRI research on key uncertainties regarding
greenhouse gas/aerosol emissions and concentrations, climate system feedbacks, and potential effects
ofconcem.
A section on each research element will describe I) major questions; 2) concise overview of the
current state of knowledge; 3) specific decision support mechanisms and planned reporting schedules;
4) research tasks and needs, including observations and monitoring requirements; 5) uncertainties
unlikely to be resolved within 2-5 years.
Support for "discovery-driven" research will remain an important component of the program.
3. Observations/monitoring/data and information systems; and modeling capabilities
The plan will describe a strategy for improving global observing systems and US climate modeling
infrastructure that addresses decision support and research element requirements.
4. Program management
The plan will set out the structure and interagency process that will be used to manage the program.
5. Program reports
The plan will define the subject, scope and schedule for program reports planned to be issues during
the next three years.
Expected products of the planning process
• A high-level technical summary document of approximately 60-100 pages covering the above
topics
• Strawman implementation plans reflecting the current state of science for major decision support
products and core research elements of the program that focus on deliverablesin two years, four
years, and beyond
Process overview
The Climate Change Science Program Office (CCSPO) and Subcommittee on Global Change
Research (SGCR) of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) will provide oversight and
direction for the planning process.
The CCSPO and USGCRP Office will coordinate day-to-day operations, participate in drafting, and
structure the review process and interaction with stakeholders. ' '
Agency research program managers, members of the research community, and decision makers will be
involved in drafting sections of the plan; others from these communities will be involved in reviewing
it.
Final approval will rest with the Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration
(CCCSTI) at the recommendation of the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and
Technology (IWGCCST).
Page 2
CEQ 017830
DRAFT for SGCR/CCSPO Comment 12/14/06
Approximate schedule
The CCSPOfUSGCRP Office will be responsible for integrating the CCRI and USGCRP plans by
November 2002. Steps in the process will include:
Consultations to identify suggestions for planning

rocess
Identification of authors to help August In process
CCSPOfUSGCRPO in re arin an inte rated draft
Meetings of USGCRP interagency scientific September and Next meeting on 13
working groups to draft and review sections of the early October August; frequent
plan progress checks
lanned
Internal government review of tl.(,;, draft followed Late October Rapid response
by revisions, coordinated through CCSPO/SGCR required; will set
s ecific dates ASAP
Post integrated plan on the program website for Early November
open comment by members of the research and
decision makin communities
Workshop on managing the climate change 3-5 December Planning underway
science-policy interface to include review of the
inte rated decision su ort and research Ian
Public comment period mandated by PL 101-606 December-January TBD if can run
concurrentl
Review by National Research Council mandated by December-January TBD if can run
PL 101-606 concurrent!
Final revisions and review b CCSPO/SGCR Februa
Approval of the plan by CCCSTI at the Late February
recommendation of the IWGCCST
Publication and release to Congress 15 March 2002 Stretch goal but
achievable
Inputs requested from USGCRP/CCSPO agencies
Advice is sought from the USGCRP/CCSPO participants regarding the above issues. In particular,
suggestions are solicited on:
• Questions and issues to highlight in decision support activities, with initial emphasis on
climate change and the 2-5 year time frame for deliverables
• Approaches for improving matrix management of cross-cutting issues such as observational
capabilities, modeling requirements and services (including "high-end" climate modeling for
assessment/decision support), and data and information management
• The revised outline of the plan
• Authors
• External reviewers (participants and identified commentators) to involve in the December
workshop
• Other aspects of the planning process
CONTACTS: Dr. James R. Mahoney (202-482-3567, and james.r.mahoney@noaa.gov) or Dr. Richard

H. Moss (202-314-2239, and rmoss@usgcrp.gov)
Page 3
CEQ 017831

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RECORD TYPE: FEDERAL (N OTES MAIL)

"Jordan St.John" <Jordan .sr .oohnenoaa.uo v»

============:::======= ATTACHMENT 1 === =============== =

Anderson, Harvard (p. 3/31-46) -- Specify "societal objectives"

Chapter 2-CCRI Climate Science

Anderson, Harvard (711-23) -- Need more specific priorities on climate uncertainties

Chapters 3 and 12-0bservations, Modeling, Data

Anderson, Harvard (5/42-6/44) -- Need more specific priorities

Ch. 4 -- Decision Support

American Assoc. of State Climatologists (2/14-3/15) -- Focus on plausible variations, not

Chapter 5-Atmospheric Composition

Gupta, NASA GSFCIUMBC GEST (43/38-44/44) Focus on regional air quality/aerosols/ozone

Anderson, Harvard (7/1-23) -- Need more specific priorities on climate uncertainties

Chapter 7--Water Cycle

Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (36/18-30)

Chapter 8--Land UselLand Cover

Hanson, LANL (46/2-13) Add sidebar on scale mismatches

Chapter 9--Carbon Cycle

Chapter II-Human Contributions and Responses

Chapter 13--Reporting and Outreach

Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (36/32-36)

Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (34/6-23) (36/38-37/19)

Chapter IS-Management and Review

Barnett, UCSD (17/15-24) -- Need organization & $ for highly-directed focused

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Ql), CH3(Ql,Q2),

Question 2: What is the current quantitative skill for simulating the

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS -CH3(Q2), CH6(QI), CH7CQ2),

Question 3: What are the effects of regional pollution on the global

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q3), CHIO(Ql)

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CHIO(Ql), CH2(Q3), CH6(Ql),

Question 1. What is the sensitivity of climate change projections to

HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS: CH2(Q2,Q3), CH5(Ql,Q2),

Question 2. To what extent can predictions of near-term climate

HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH12(Ql,Q2), CH7(Ql, Q3),

HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q3), CH3(Q2), CHI0(Ql)

Question 4. Whether and how are the frequencies, intensities, and

HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH7(Ql), CH8(Ql)

Question 5. How can interactions between producers and users of

HIGH PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH7(Q5), CH9(Q6), CHll(Q2)

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH5(QI), CH6(Q4), CH8(Q5),

Question 2: How do feedback processes control the interactions between

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q3), CH5(QI), CH6(QI),

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH8(Ql), CH5(Q3), CHIO(Ql),

Question 5: What are the consequences of global water cycle variability

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH3(Q5), CH4(Ql,Q4),

Question 2: What tools or methods are needed to allow for better

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Q2), CH9(Q3,Q4),

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Q2,Q3)

Question 4: How can projections be made of potential land cover and

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Q3), CHIO(Q2), CHll(Ql,Q2)

Question 1: What are the magnitudes and distributions of North

Question 2: What are the magnitudes and distributions of ocean carbon

Question 3: What are the magnitudes and distributions of global

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH6(1), CH7(Q2), CH8(Q2)

Question 5: What will be the future atmospheric carbon dioxide and

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Q2), CH5(Q2),

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Ql,Q2), CH6(Q5)

Question 1: What are the most important.linkages and feedbacks

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH2(Ql),

Question 2: What are the potential consequences of global change for

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH7(Ql), CHl1(Q4)

ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Ql,Q4), CH7(QS)