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Investment Decisions

Capital Allocation Between  capital allocation decision = choice of


The Risky And The Risk- proportion to be invested in risk-free versus
risky assets
Free Asset  asset allocation decision = choice of type of
assets to invest in (e.g., bonds, real estate,
stocks, foreign assets etc.)
 security selection decision = choice of which
Chapter 7 particular security to invest in

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Allocating Capital: Risky & Risk


The Risk-Free Asset
Free Assets
 examine risk/return tradeoff  technically, the risk-free asset is default-free
 demonstrate how different degrees of risk and without inflation risk (a price-indexed
aversion will affect allocations between risky default-free bond)
and risk free assets  in practice, Treasury bills come closest,
 consider the optimal risky portfolio as given because:
and analyze the allocation decision between  shortterm means little interest-rate or inflation
“the” risky portfolio (treated as one asset) and risk
the risk-free asset (T-bills)  default risk is practically zero, since the
government would no default
 rate of return:
P1 − P0 + D1
r=
P0
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Characterization of the Complete


Notation
Portfolio
 rf = rate of return on the risk-free asset  rate of return
 rp = rate of return on the risky portfolio rC = yrp + (1 – y)rf
 rC = rate of return on the complete portfolio  expected rate of return
(including both the risk-free asset and the risky E(rC) = y E(rp) + (1 – y) E(rf) = y E(rp) + (1 – y)rf
portfolio) = rf + y[E(rp) – rf ]
 y = proportion of the investment budget to be  variance
placed in the risky portfolio σC2 = y2σp2 + (1 – y)2 ⋅ 0 + 2y(1 – y) Cov(rp, rf)
 σp = standard deviation of the return on the = y2σp2
risky portfolio  standard deviation
 σC = standard deviation of the return on the σC = yσp
complete portfolio
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Available Complete Portfolios Capital Allocation Line
 solve for y:
y = σC / σp E(r)

 replace in the equation for the expected rate E(rp) P


of return
σC [ E ( rp ) − rf ]
E ( rC ) = rf +
[ E (rp ) − rf ] = rf + σ C
σp σp rf
 this defines a line in the mean-variance space
– the capital allocation line (CAL)
 slope of CAL: [E(rp) – rf ] / σp
σp σ
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Example Capital Allocation Line – Example


 rf= 7%
 E(rp) = 15% E(r)
 σp = 22% 15% P
 y = 0.75 13%
 E(rC) = 0.75⋅15% + 0.25⋅7% = 13%
 σC = y⋅σp = 0.75⋅22% = 16.5% 0.37
7%
 slope of CAL = [E(rp) – rf ] / σp = 8 / 22 = 0.37

16.5% 22% σ
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Example – Different Borrowing and


Capital Allocation Line with Leverage
Lending Rates
 what happens if y > 1 (points to the right of P)?  rf= 7%
 it means that there is negative investment in  E(rp) = 15%
the risk-free asset  the investor borrowed at  σp = 22%
the risk-free rate  rb = 10%
 this is called leveraged position in the risky
 y = 1.25
asset – some of the investment is financed by
 E(rC) = 1.25⋅15% – 0.25⋅10% = 16.25%
borrowing (e.g., buying on margin)
 σC = y⋅σp = 1.25⋅22% = 27.5%
 the complete portfolio will have higher
expected return, but also higher variance (risk)  slope of CAL (2) = [E(rp) – rb] / σp = 5 / 22 = 0.23

 also, it is possible that the borrowing rate is


higher than the lending rate (risk-free rate)
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Capital Allocation Line – Example Risk Aversion and Allocation

E(r)  higher levels of risk aversion lead to larger


proportions of investment in the risk free asset
16.25% (lower y)
0.23
15%  lower levels of risk aversion lead to larger
P proportions of investment in the portfolio of
10% risky assets (higher y)
0.37  willingness to accept high levels of risk for
7%
high levels of returns would result in leveraged
combinations (y > 1)

22% 27.5% σ
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Utility Function Optimal Complete Portfolio


 form of the utility function:  utility is maximized with respect to y:
U = E(rC) – 0.005A σC2 max U = rf + y[E(rp) – rf ] – 0.005A y2 σp2
 different values of A would cause different  the solution is given by the first-order constraint
choices of the complete portfolio (i.e., setting the derivative of U with respect to y
 remember that equal to 0)
 E(rC) = rf + y[E(rp) – rf ] U’ = [E(rp) – rf ] – 0.005A ⋅ 2y σp2
 σ C2 = y2 σp2  solving for y gives the optimal choice of
 the utility function only as a function of y and investment in the risky portfolio
known (expected) returns and variances: E (rp ) − rf
U = rf + y[E(rp) – rf ] – 0.005A y2 σp2
y* =
0.01Aσ 2p
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Optimal Complete Portfolio (cont.) Optimal Complete Portfolio–Example


 optimal choice for an investor is the point of  rf = 7%, E(rp) = 15%, σp = 22%
tangency of the highest indifference curve to  investor 1:
the Capital Allocation Line  slope of A =4
indifference curve is equal to the slope of the y = 8 / (0.01⋅222⋅4) = 0.41 = 41%
CAL  E(rC) = 0.41⋅15% + 0.59⋅7% = 10.28%
 borrowers (investors with y > 1) are less risk-  σC = y⋅σp = 0.41⋅22% = 9.02%
averse than lenders (investors with y ≤ 1)
 investor 2:
 higher risk-aversion  steeper indifference
A = 1.5
curve y = 8 / (0.01⋅222⋅1.5) = 1.10 = 110%
 E(rC) = 1.10⋅15% – 0.10⋅7% = 15.8%
 σC = y⋅σp = 1.10⋅22% = 24.2%

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Optimal Complete Portfolio and Risk
Capital Market Line
Aversion
E(r)  we assumed that the investor chooses an
optimal risky portfolio, which is given
15.8%  a passive strategy would be to invest in a
15% 2
P broad portfolio, like a market index
 the resulting capital asset line is called capital
9.02% market line (CML)
1
7%

10.28% 22% 24.2% σ


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