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Twitter Inc. GreenCrest Capital
08 April 2011 Management LLC
Equity Research ‐ Twitter
Executive Summary
08 April 2011 | 3 pages
The Two Faces of Twitter
• Social media is among the fastest growing industries in the world with valuations to back it
up. Today, according to the Wall Street Journal, social network companies are worth a
combined value exceeding $100 billion, with Facebook leading the way with a valuation of
$70 billion. Twitter’s last funding round in December placed its value at $3.7 billion.
• Twitter is enjoying (and will continue to enjoy) an enormous amount of free publicity and
advertising via the various news stations, radio broadcasts, movies, celebrities and
enterprises that promote Tweets as a way to communicate with their fans and followers.
• Twitter currently has over 175 million active users, and that number is steadily growing.
These active users are posting over 95 million tweets per day. Twitter’s popularity grows by
the day, with every major news event spiking usage. With limited competition, Twitter has
created its own niche.
• Twitter has raised $360 million in venture capital to date, beginning in July 2007, with an
initial investment of $5 million. Subsequent rounds raised an additional $15 million (May
2008), $35 million (February 2009), $100 million (September 2009), $5.17 million (January
2010), and its most recent investment of $200 million (December 2010) at a valuation of
$3.7 billion. Marc Andreessen, one of the initial angel investors, purchased an additional $80
million of shares on the secondary market in February 2011.
• In our opinion, Twitter is not close to full utility of its revenue platform. In the coming
months and years, we believe that additional revenue streams will be developed. Twitter
is only five‐years‐old and has a revenue generating history of less than one year. We
estimate that in January 2011 (nine months after its first revenues) Twitter made a profit for
the first time. We strongly believe that Twitter will remain a profitable company for the
foreseeable future.
• Twitter is a company with an astounding growth rate. The number of tweets has increased
at an astounding rate, yet revenues, which only started flowing since the middle of 2010, are
at the very beginning of their growth. The company, just a few short months after turning
on the revenue stream, turned profitable earlier this year, after seeing $45 million in Nitsan Hargil, CFA
revenues in 2010. Senior Equity Analyst
• EBITDA margins may potentially be very high. While the company just began receiving Direct: (212) 607‐5456
revenues in mid‐2010, it was able to pass into profitability in January 2011. Given the nitsanh@greencrestcapital.com
company’s growth and very modest expense, we foresee the company arriving at very high
EBITDA margins, potentially as high as 50%. Using traditional revenue multipliers, it is AB Mendez
difficult to arrive at the valuations bestowed upon the company; however, we remain Senior Equity Analyst
confident that there will be additional investors willing to pay these valuations in the short Direct: (212) 607‐5456
term. Longer term the risks are much higher, and we believe the company’s valuation will abm@greencrestcapital.com
primarily be attributed to its ability to get acquired by an industry leader, such as Google,
GreenCrest Capital Management LLC
Facebook or Yahoo.
100 Wall Street, 8th Floor
• We are comfortable with a valuation of $2.9 billion‐$3.8 billion, possibly topping $7 billion New York, NY 10005
by the end of this year. With that in mind, we feel that in today’s market, investors will Main: (212) 607‐5423
continue to pay top dollar for social networking sites and it is likely that Twitter’s valuation http://www.greencrestcapital.com
will continue to rise in the short‐term. Some smaller trades on the secondary market are
occurring at high valuations, yet for serious investors, a more reasonable market valuation
prevails.
Legal Disclaimer
GreenCrest Capital Management LLC (Hereafter “GreenCrest”) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its
research report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity
of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This document does
not contain all the information needed to make an investment decision, including but not limited to, the risks and costs.
Page 1 GreenCrest Capital Management LLC
Twitter Inc.
08 April 2011
Table of Contents (of Full Report)
The Two Faces of Twitter 3
SWOT Analysis 4
How We View Twitter’s Value 5
Social Network Acquisitions and Discussions 12
Twitter Investment Funding 13
Twitter Grows by Leaps & Bounds 14
Twitter Users Go Global 15
Twitter Grows Through Acquisitions 17
Twitter Moves to Generate Revenues 19
Twitter is All About the Features 20
Competitors Trying to Oust Twitter 23
Leaders in Their Industry 26
Companies Mentioned in This Report 29
Disclaimer 31
Tables
Valuations of Some Social Media Companies 5
Social Network Ad Revenues (U.S.) 6
Social Network Ad Revenues (Worldwide) 6
Lower Growth Revenues and Projected Revenues for Twitter 7
High Growth Revenues and Projected Revenues 7
Twitter’s Investment Funding 13
Graphs and Figures
Comparing Lower Growth Revenues & High Growth Revenues 7
Lower Growth Twitter Market Cap (20x revenues) 8
Lower Growth Twitter Market Cap (30x revenues) 9
High Growth Twitter Market Cap (20x revenues) 10
High Growth Twitter Market Cap (30x revenues) 10
Twitter’s Valuation Projection 11
Percentage of Twitter Population by Age Group 15
Percentage of Twitter Users 16
Percentage of Growth in 2010 by City 17
Application Market Share 21
Page 2 GreenCrest Capital Management LLC
Twitter Inc.
08 April 2011
About GreenCrest Capital & Its Analysts
GreenCrest Capital provides clients with timely and innovative research into the companies, sectors and spaces which we cover. To
that end we established an experienced team of analysts, researchers, economists and industry veterans that focus exclusively on
private companies with a proven track record of success. Producing quality research on a private company is uniquely challenging. Our
team’s collaborative examination employs forensic analysis combining primary research as well as secondary information sources. Our
analysts and industry experts leverage years of experience working for bulge bracket firms. Our research group utilizes fundamental
analysis to deliver proprietary, innovative, insightful and thought provoking reports.
Nitsan Hargil, CFA, has more than 15 years of experience as an analyst in the technology and financial services industries. Mr. Hargil
specialized in artificial intelligence research, security software, and network management software and systems. Prior to GreenCrest
Capital Mr. Hargil's Wall Street career includes research analyst positions at Lehman Brothers, Kaufman Brothers, and Friedman Billings
Ramsey (FBR). He is known for successfully integrating his deep understanding of technology with extensive channel checks to provide
credible, objective research. Mr. Hargil was recognized as a top analyst in The Wall Street Journal "Best On The Street" awards for best
stock picking in software. He was ranked by StarMine as second (out of more than 100 analysts) in software EPS accuracy for three years
in a row. Mr. Hargil frequently appeared on CNBC, CNN, CNNfn, Bloomberg TV, and other financial news shows and has been quoted for
his expertise in identifying and analyzing industry trends in leading publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Investor's Business
Daily, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Fortune, and Business Week. Mr. Hargil is a member of the CFA Institute and the New
York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA). He received his M.B.A. from the Anderson School at UCLA.
A.B. Mendez, CFA, has over 11 years of equity research and consulting experience with private and public companies in the Internet
Media, E‐Commerce and software‐as‐a‐service (SAAS) sectors. Prior to joining GreenCrest he was a Senior Equities Analyst at Twin Red
Asset Management where he researched public and private companies across a range of industries and constructed a portfolio of long
and short positions. Prior to that Mr. Mendez was an Internet equity research analyst at Bank of America, Friedman Billings
Ramsey(FBR), and Thomas Weisel Partners. His operational and entrepreneurial experience includes independent E‐Commerce and
database consulting, working on multiple Internet startups, and serving as Director of Operations at Web software firm, Whiteboard
Labs. Mr. Mendez earned a BA in Economics and Political Science from Rice University, and is a member of the CFA Institute and the
New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA). He is also a pro bono consultant for the New York‐based Taproot Foundation.
Disclaimer
GreenCrest Capital Management LLC (Hereafter “GreenCrest”) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in this research
report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This document does not contain all the
information needed to make an investment decision, including but not limited to, the risks and costs. Additional information is available
upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but GreenCrest or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries do
not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All pricing information for the securities discussed is derived from public information, unless
otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without
notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or
sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances,
objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular
clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments
mentioned herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company specific developments or
announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information.
Copyright 2011 GreenCrest Management LLC. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written consent of GreenCrest Capital.
Page 3 GreenCrest Capital Management LLC