Daily Commodity Market Update as on Friday, May 06, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 22169 22209 21702 22131 -1.81 Silver plunged more than 10 percent its biggest one-day
SILVER 59849 60080 54800 60046 -8.61 drop in dollar terms since the Hunt Brothers price
SPOT $ squeeze, dragging gold over 3 percent lower as panic
GOLD 1474.2 1490.1 1470.6 1475 0.89 selling snowballed across the commodities sector.
SILVER 34.85 35.62 34.29 34.85 0.4
PLATINUM 1767 1794.49 1754.75 1795.75 1.83

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
CRUDE 4869 4879 4535 4577 -6.51 Crude oil yesterday ended lower as investors staged an
unprecedented stampede for the exits. Natural gas
N.GAS 205.7 205.7 194.1 206.5 -6.12
extended losses tumbling to a two-week low after the
U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural gas
SPOT $ inventories rose more-than-expected last week.
CRUDE 108.78 109.38 98.25 99.80 -8.255194

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
COPPER 412.45 412.45 398.6 412.55 -2.64 The entire base metals counter yesterday nosedived as
ZINC 97.9 98.1 94.05 98.35 -3.42 fears about sputtering global growth and growing inflation
NICKEL 1158 1158 1107.8 1157.8 -3.99 risk triggered a crash.
LEAD 110.1 110.45 103.9 110.55 -5.94
ALUMINIUM 121.7 122.2 117.55 122.4 -3.42

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 8787 8883 8780 8795 0.75 COPPER 3525 467450
ZINC 2125 2142 2111 2116 0.9 ZINC -125 822225
NICKEL 24600 2669 24600 24525 1.57 NICKEL -12 116364
LEAD 2308 2320 2296.25 2305.25 0.3 LEAD 400 311450
ALUMINIUM 2639.5 2320 2635 2639 0.61 ALUMINIUM -2650 4603350

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
18383.85 5500.9 2375.21 1335.1 8397.4 12584.17 9833.3 2865.77 2136 23123.14 74.13
0.95 0.74 -0.52 -0.91 -1.28 -1.1 -1.74 -0.23 -2.02 -0.58 -0.12

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 OPEN
22169
HIGH
22209
MCX GOLD FUTURE

LOW
21702
CLOSE
22131
% CNG
-1.81
VOLUME
50717
OI
12501
RE CNG
-393

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold decline as some investors sell after the metal’s rally to a record and as other commodities drop,
also pressure seen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sounded less hawkish
P.P. 21883
than expected on euro zone interest rates and after official data showed U.S. initial jobless claims
jumped to an eight-month high last week. Shanghai Gold Exchange also raised margin SUP 1 RES 1
requirements. SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings extended losses and fell 0.9 percent to 1,208.419 21557 22064
tonnes by May 5, from 1,219.94 tonnes on May 4. The holdings hit a record at 1,320.436 tonnes on SUP 2 RES 2
June 29 of last year.Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently
21376 22390
indicating 48.74, where as 50DMA is at 21472.9 and gold is trading above the same and getting
support at 21557 and below could see a test of 21376 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen SUP 3 RES 3
at 22064, a move above could see prices testing 22390. 21050 22571

OPEN
59849
MCX SILVER FUTURE

HIGH
60080
LOW
54800
CLOSE
60046
% CNG
-8.61
VOLUME
132514
OI
14021
RE CNG
-4759

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver dropped more than 10% on Thursday, its biggest one-day drop in dollar terms and -8.61%
that settled at 55287 on MCX, since the Hunt Brothers price squeeze as panic selling snowballed
P.P. 56722
across the commodities sector. Silver has now lost 30% this week, well above the conventional
criteria of 20% for a bear market, since it surged to a record high near $50 an ounce last Thursday. SUP 1 RES 1
Silver's plunge for a fifth day led the decline in commodities. Speculators in the silver futures market 53365 58645
were forced to liquidate positions after the CME raised margins five times in under two weeks, an SUP 2 RES 2
84% rise in trading costs that has helped provoke a nearly unprecedented sell-off. Now technically
51442 62002
market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 36.63, where as 50DMA is at
60040.6 and silver is trading below the same and getting support at 53365 and below could see a SUP 3 RES 3
test of 51442 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 58645, a move above could see prices 48085 63925

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 OPEN
4869
HIGH
MCX CRUDE FUTURE

4879
LOW
4535
CLOSE
4577
% CNG
-6.51
VOLUME
181065
OI
12180
RE CNG
-298

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude eased below $100 a barrel on Thursday seen a biggest sell off of almost -6.51 finally settled at
4577 for the first time since March as a commodities sell-off continued amid persistent worries about
P.P. 4664
economic growth and tighter monetary policies. The decline came after early selling stoked by data
showing the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose to an eight-month high last week SUP 1 RES 1
and productivity growth slowed in the first quarter. Additional pressure came from news that OPEC is 4448 4792
considering raising formal output limits when it meets in June to convince oil markets it wants to SUP 2 RES 2
bring prices down and reverse the impact of fuel inflation on economic growth. Now technically
4320 5008
market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 33.29, where as 50DMA is at
4848 and crude is trading below the same and getting support at 4448 and below could see a test of SUP 3 RES 3
4320 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4792, a move above could see prices testing 4104 5136

OPEN
412.45
MCX COPPER FUTURE

HIGH
412.45
LOW
398.6
CLOSE
412.55
% CNG
-2.64
VOLUME
122223
OI
22845
RE CNG
-10.6

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper dropped more than 3% that is -2.64% down at 401.95 to its lowest level since December as
fears about sputtering global growth and growing inflation risk triggered a vicious cross-commodity
P.P. 404.3
crash. Tepid economic data from top metal consumers the United States and China, as well as in
Europe, have stoked concerns about global growth and the impact on demand for base metals. SUP 1 RES 1
German industrial orders unexpectedly fell in March while U.S. weekly jobless claims hit eight-month 396.2 410.1
highs, and productivity growth slowed. Base metals fundamentals also pointed to faltering demand, SUP 2 RES 2
with data on Thursday showing a large 3,525-tonne build in copper inventories, with big inflows into
390.5 418.2
south Asian locations. For today's session market is looking to take support at 396.2, a break below
could see a test of 390.5 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 410.1, a move above SUP 3 RES 3
could see prices testing 418.2. 382.4 423.9

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 OPEN
97.9
HIGH
98.1
MCX ZINC FUTURE

LOW
94.05
CLOSE
98.35
% CNG
-3.42
VOLUME
27281
OI
10055
RE CNG
-3.25

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -3.42% down at 95.1 tracking LME zinc
prices which overnight opened below USD 2,200/mt. Since German industrial orders for March fell by P.P. 95.8
4.0%, and China is expected to continue tightening monetary policies, LME zinc prices fell further. SUP 1 RES 1
Later, the number of US preliminary jobless claims for the week ending April 30th unexpectedly rose
93.4 97.5
by 430,000, to 474,000, the highest level since August 2010, improving worries about global
economic growth. LME zinc prices once plummeted to USD 2,100/mt, and pared some losses at the SUP 2 RES 2
end of trading to close at USD 2,116/mt, down USD 84/mt. For today's session market is looking to 91.7 99.8
take support at 93.4, a break below could see a test of 91.7 and where as resistance is now likely to SUP 3 RES 3
be seen at 97.5, a move above could see prices testing 99.8.
89.4 101.5

OPEN
1158
MCX NICKEL FUTURE

HIGH
1158
LOW
1108
CLOSE
1157.8
% CNG
-3.99
VOLUME
49122
OI
5796
RE CNG
-44.4

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -3.99% down at 1113.4 as commodity
price slump overnight further added investors concern over global economy outlook. LME nickel
P.P. 1126
prices fell sharply by USD 1,200/mt or by 4.7% to close at USD 24,525/mt. LME nickel prices fell
below USD 25,000/mt to reach the level last seen in early January 2011. Thursday's data from SUP 1 RES 1
Germany Economics Ministry showed, industrial orders in March slipped by 4.0% from a month 1095 1145
earlier, while the previous estimation was a growth of 0.1%. Comments by the PBoC in its quarterly SUP 2 RES 2
monetary policy report reiterated its dedication to easing inflation through various tightening tools.
1076 1177
For today's session market is looking to take support at 1094.8, a break below could see a test of
1076.2 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1145, a move above could see prices SUP 3 RES 3
testing 1176.6. 1045 1195

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MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE
OPEN
121.7
HIGH
122.2
LOW
117.55
CLOSE
122.4
% CNG
-3.42
VOLUME
5714
OI
3138
RE CNG
-4.05

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -3.42% down at 118.35 as both BOE
and ECB announced to keep interest rates unchanged as market expected. Later, the US Labor
P.P. 119.4
Department announced that the initial claims for jobless benefits soared to 474,000 in the week
ending April 30th, setting a new high since August 2010, an indication of deteriorating job markets SUP 1 RES 1
in the US. In addition, the global inflationary pressure kept rising, and the economic growth slowed 116.5 121.2
down, both helping hamper the recovery in demand. As a result commodity markets experienced SUP 2 RES 2
large-scale sell-offs, and LME aluminum prices tumbled continuously to below 30-day moving
114.7 124.0
average after opening lower, with prices hitting an intraday low of USD 2,621.8/mt. For today's
session market is looking to take support at 116.5, a break below could see a test of 114.7 and SUP 3 RES 3
where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 121.2, a move above could see prices testing 124. 111.9 125.8

OPEN
MCX NAT.GAS FUTURE

205.7
HIGH
205.7
LOW
194.1
CLOSE
206.5
% CNG
-6.12
VOLUME
29505
OI
3965
RE CNG
-11.9

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -6.12% down at 194.6 pressured
by a crumbling crude market and a government report showing a weekly inventory build above
P.P. 198.1
market expectations for the first time in four weeks. Market were expecting a lower (EIA build)
number, and gas got pulled into the broad commodity sell-off seen.The U.S. EIA said in its weekly SUP 1 RES 1
report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended April 29 rose by 72 bcf, after 190.6 202.2
increasing by 31 bcf in the preceding week. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.757 trillion SUP 2 RES 2
cubic feet. Stocks were 226 bcf less than last year at this time and 17 billion cubic feet below the
186.5 209.7
five-year average of 1.774 trillion cubic feet for this time of year. For today's session market is
looking to take support at 190.6, a break below could see a test of 186.5 and where as resistance is SUP 3 RES 3
now likely to be seen at 202.2, a move above could see prices testing 209.7. 179.0 213.8

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE JULY SEPT DEC
JUNE 21738 277 638 JULY 55287 490 1158
AUG 22015 361 SEPT 55777 668
OCT 22376 DEC 56445
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver JUL & SEP contracts yesterday
ended at 277, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 490, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
1.81% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 277 8.61% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
- 294. 442 - 562.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE JULY MONTH RATE JUNE AUG
MAY 4577 66 114 JUNE 401.95 5.1
JUNE 4643 48 AUG 407.05
JULY 4691
Spread between crude APR & MAY contracts yesterday Spread between copper JUN & AUG contracts yesterday
SPREAD MARKET

ended at 66, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.1, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
6.51% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 42 -2.64% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
98. 4.75 - 5.55.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 95.1 1.2 MAY 1113.4 9.5
JUNE 96.3 JUNE 1122.9

Spread between zinc MAY & JUN contracts yesterday Spread between nickel MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 1.2, we have seen yesterday that the zinc ended at 9.50, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
3.42% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1.2 -3.99% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
2. 7.80 - 9.5.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 194.6 5 MAY 988.6 -69.3
JUNE 199.6 JUNE 919.3

Spread between natural gas MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at 5.00, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a negative node and
settled -6.12% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of 4.6 - 5.3.
Spread between menthol oil MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at -69.30, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node
and settled -3.49% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -83 to -69.3.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
ECONOMICAL

12:15pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance 0 -28.0B

12:15pm EUR French Trade Balance -6.2B -6.6B
3:30pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.006 0.016
DATA

5:00pm USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks 0 0

6:00pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 185K 216K
6:00pm USD Unemployment Rate 0.088 0.088
Fri 6:00pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.002 0
7:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

If estimates of The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) are to be believed, Rubber producers
can rejoice and consumers are set to pay more for the rubber products. The ANRPC report says Rubber production
this year could be around 10.025 million tonnes, lower than an earlier forecast of 10.060 million tones. ANRPC uses
only official sources for gathering updated trends from the 11 countries which are its members and account for more
than 92% of the commodity’s global supply. Countries which forms ARRPC are Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam, which accounts for more than
95 per cent 2011 supply of Rubber from these rubber producing countries are likely to fall by around 0.4 per cent
mainly because of a revision of estimates in Thailand, major contributor to rubber. Thailand revised from 3.375
NEWS YOU CAN USE

million tonnes in 2011 from an earlier forecast of 3.430 million tones.

Food inflation eases to 8.53% on cheaper pulses : Food inflation fell to 8.53 per cent for the week ended April 23 on
the back of fall in prices of pulses, reversing the upward trend seen in the previous fortnight.Food inflation in the
previous week was 8.76 per cent. The latest numbers are likely to come as a relief to the Government and the RBI,
especially at a time when the central bank’s monetary policy for the fiscal, released earlier this week, was almost
exclusively focused on fighting price rise.Food inflation stood at 20.91 per cent during the corresponding week last
year. During the week under review, wholesale prices of pulses declined by 7.39 per cent on a year-on-year
basis.However, all other commodities witnessed a rise in prices. Cereals became dearer by 4.42 per cent year-on-
year, with rice and wheat becoming more expensive by 2.08 per cent and 0.06 per cent, respectively. Vegetables
prices were overall up by 3.44 per cent. Potatoes became dearer by 0.27 per cent on an annual basis and onions
were up by 16.09 per cent. Fruits and protein-based items continued to become more costly. Fruits became dearer
by 32.69 per cent year-on-year, while milk was up by 5.16 per cent and eggs, meat and fish by 5.13 per cent. The
rate of price rise of non-food primary articles was 27.84 per cent. Fibres became more expensive by 85.58 per cent
year-on-year, while fuel and power was up by 13.53 per cent and petrol by 21.81 per cent. The high price rise of
food items was one of the reasons for inflationary pressure last fiscal. However, the Government had exuded
confidence that food inflation would moderate in the months to come on account of the record crop of wheat and

Indian cash rates fell on Thursday as demand for funds eased, but traders expect it to climb beyond the repo rate on
Monday when banks begin to borrow for the new reporting fortnight beginning Saturday. the one-day inter-bank cash
rate was at 6.70/6.75 percent, lower than its previous close of 6.80/6.85 percent. Next week, liquidity is going to be
a little tighter. The call rate will move slightly beyond the repo. Liquidity is likely to tighten next week on the back of
outflows related to cash management bills auctions later in the day and the government's 120 billion rupees debt sale
on Friday. The government will sell 77-day cash management bills for 60 billion rupees via a multiple price-based
auction. Demand for funds also eased as banks had covered their positions earlier in the week before the central
bank's monetary policy on Tuesday.

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