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Daily Commodity Market Update as on Monday, May 09, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG


MCX
Precious metal prices rallied Saturday in tandem with
GOLD 21889 21933 21845 21846 0.16 other markets after data showed private-sector hiring hit
SILVER 54500 55300 54500 54296 1.13 a five-year high in April. But metals pared gains later on
SPOT $ Friday when the dollar surged against the euro after a
GOLD 1491.7 1504.65 1490.1 1494.6 0.63 German media report suggested Greece had raised the
possibility of leaving the euro zone.
SILVER 35.64 36.32 35.45 35.59 1.88
PLATINUM 1777 1794.7 1775.5 1791.75 0.63

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG Crude oil slumped as a stronger dollar prompted investors
MCX to continue trimming oil bets. Oil's sharp slide this week is
CRUDE 4444 4444 4390 4416 -0.91 welcome because high prices may hurt the world
economy and in the longer term accelerate the use of
N.GAS 190.5 193.6 190.2 191.1 0.78
alternative fuels, OPEC delegates said. Natural gas ended
firm on Saturday but on week ended lower on the outlook
SPOT $ for demand, as stockpiles rose more than expected and
CRUDE 99.76 102.38 94.63 97.18 -2.586207 commodities tumbled on speculation that economic
growth will slow.

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG


MCX Base metals ended positive on short covering Saturday
COPPER 398.8 403.2 398 398.6 0.33 after prices eked out a modest gain on Friday after
ZINC 96.7 97.65 96.45 95.9 0.93 upbeat U.S. employment data helped calm commodity
NICKEL 1105.9 1118 1103.7 1103.7 0.65 markets spooked into free fall on Thursday by fears of
103.5 105.75 103.5 103.25 1.43 slowing growth in the world's No. 1 economy.
LEAD
ALUMINIUM 116.4 117.7 116.35 116.45 0.21

LME LME STOCK


COPPER 8846.75 8940 8840 8789 1.57 COPPER -275 467175
ZINC 2145 2173 2139.75 2146.75 1.21 ZINC 1150 823375
NICKEL 24510 2636 24510 24500 1.84 NICKEL -120 116244
LEAD 2293 2335 2290 2287.25 1.66 LEAD 0 311450
ALUMINIUM 2612 2335 2605.75 2610 1 ALUMINIUM -3025 4600325

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE


SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
18588.51 5566.2 2383.18 1340.2 8425.9 12638.74 9825.74 2874.48 2148.86 23363.65 74.55
0.38 0.27 0.34 0.38 0.34 0.43 -0.34 0.37 0.07 0.88 -0.26

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OPEN
21889
HIGH
21933
MCX GOLD FUTURE

LOW
21845
CLOSE
21846
% CNG
0.16
VOLUME
2120
OI
12459
RE CNG
34

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold bounced as jewelers, physical buyers and bargain hunters, especially in Asia, took advantage of
lower prices. Indians took gold's latest tumble as another incentive to buy on Akshaya Tritiya, one of P.P. 21886
the major gold-buying festivals, and as India's wedding season gathered pace. India's gold market is SUP 1 RES 1
almost entirely fed by imports, which are expected to climb 64% to as much as 550 tonnes in 2011
21839 21927
with a normal monsoon forecast which may help farm incomes recover after a severe drought in
2009 slashed spending power. Now technically market is trading in range as RSI for 18days is SUP 2 RES 2
currently indicating 51.89, whereas 50DMA is at 21493 and gold is trading above the same and 21798 21974
getting support at 21839 and below could see a test of 21798 level and resistance is now likely to be SUP 3 RES 3
seen at 21927, a move above could see prices testing 21974.
21751 22015

OPEN
54500
MCX SILVER FUTURE

HIGH
55300
LOW
54500
CLOSE
54296
% CNG
1.13
VOLUME
4500
OI
14338
RE CNG
623

INTRADAY LEVELS

Silver rose snapping a five-day losing streak that cut prices by almost a third after encouraging U.S. P.P. 54906
jobs data triggered a broad bounce in beaten-down commodities. Silver suffered the biggest sell-off SUP 1 RES 1
since the 1980 collapse in prices following the Hunt Bothers squeeze, triggered by a succession of
54513 55313
margin hikes that nearly doubled costs. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for
18days is currently indicating 36.99, where as 50DMA is at 60039.12 and silver is trading below the SUP 2 RES 2
same and getting support at 54513 and below could see a test of 54106 level, And resistance is now 54106 55706
likely to be seen at 55313, a move above could see prices testing 55706. SUP 3 RES 3
53713 56113

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OPEN
4444
HIGH
MCX CRUDE FUTURE

4444
LOW
4390
CLOSE
4416
% CNG
-0.91
VOLUME
4614
OI
9376
RE CNG
-40

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude oil slumped as a stronger dollar prompted investors to continue trimming oil bets. Oil demand
worries continued to pressure the market, after recent data showed a slowdown in quarterly P.P. 4417
economic growth and government data midweek which showed gasoline demand down 1.9 percent SUP 1 RES 1
from a year ago. Oil's sharp slide this week is welcome because high prices may hurt the world
4389 4443
economy and in the longer term accelerate the use of alternative fuels, OPEC delegates said. Now
technically market is in oversold as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 29.13, where as 50DMA is SUP 2 RES 2
at 4831.76 and crude is trading below the same and getting support at 4389 and below could see a 4363 4471
test of 4363 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4443, a move above could see prices SUP 3 RES 3
testing 4471.
4335 4497

OPEN
398.8
MCX COPPER FUTURE

HIGH
403.2
LOW
398
CLOSE
398.6
% CNG
0.33
VOLUME
7374
OI
24890
RE CNG
1.3

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper ended with gains on short covering after prices on Friday eked out a modest gain after
upbeat US employment data helped calm commodity markets spooked into free fall on Thursday by P.P. 400.4
fears of slowing growth in the world's No. 1 economy. Open interest in U.S. copper futures fell on SUP 1 RES 1
Friday to the lowest since Feb 2010. Open interest in copper amounted to 124,522 lots, down 1,736
397.5 402.7
lots from the day before and the lowest since Feb. 26, 2010, as the key July contract extended
losses this week through the psychological $4 per lb level. Copper has touched a low of Rs 398 a kg SUP 2 RES 2
after opening at Rs 398.8, and last traded at Rs399.9.For today market is looking for the support at 395.2 405.6
397.5, a break below could see a test of 395.2 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at SUP 3 RES 3
402.7, a move above could see prices testing 405.6.
392.3 407.9

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OPEN
96.7
HIGH
97.65
MCX ZINC FUTURE

LOW
96.45
CLOSE
95.9
% CNG
0.93
VOLUME
1593
OI
8479
RE CNG
0.9

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc prices likely to be under pressure as vast inventories of zinc likely to weigh on that market
though as it remains in supply surplus. Last Friday, the US dollar index continued to rebound, with
P.P. 97.0
the index generally moving around 74 during the day, and even rising to 74.8 during the night. In
this context, LME zinc prices moved between USD 2,120-2,130/mt in the morning session during the SUP 1 RES 1
Asian trading hours, and fell to USD 2,048 in the midday. In the evening, the US Labor released that 96.3 97.5
the number of non-farm employment for April increased by 244,000, and the private sector added SUP 2 RES 2
268k jobs during April, the largest increase since 2006. In this context, LME zinc prices overnight
95.8 98.2
rallied to close at USD 2,145/mt, up USD 29/mt. Now support for the zinc is seen at 96.3 and below
could see a test of 95.8. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 97.5, a move above could see prices SUP 3 RES 3
testing 98.2. 95.1 98.7

OPEN
1106
MCX NICKEL FUTURE

HIGH
1118
LOW
1104
CLOSE
1103.7
% CNG
0.65
VOLUME
1728
OI
5624
RE CNG
7.2

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel prices likely to trade weak only as the threat of huge over-supply will act as a drag on nickel
P.P. 1111
from now on. Jinchuan Group cut ex-works nickel prices by RMB 7,000/mt to RMB 187,000/mt last
Friday, and spot prices slipped in response. Mainstream traded price in the Shanghai nickel spot SUP 1 RES 1
market fell to RMB 188,000/mt.Nickel has touched a low of Rs 1103.7 a kg after opening at 1104 1118
Rs.1105.9, and last traded at Rs 1110.9.For today market is looking for the support at 1103.7, a SUP 2 RES 2
break below could see a test of 1096.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1118, a
1097 1125
move above could see prices testing 1125.2. Spread between nickel MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 10.20. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 10.20 - 15.9. SUP 3 RES 3
1089 1132

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MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE
OPEN
116.4
HIGH
117.7
LOW
116.35
CLOSE
116.45
% CNG
0.21
VOLUME
281
OI
2996
RE CNG
0.25

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.21% up at 116.7 tracking gains in
other metals counter amid short covering. Some support had been seen from the LME stock also
P.P. 116.9
which came down by -3025mt, the total stock at LME is now at 4600325mt. US dollar index climbed
to 74.913 at the tail of trading, weighing down LME aluminum prices to USD 2,640/mt. As crude oil SUP 1 RES 1
prices failed to rebound to USD 100/bbl, LME aluminum prices experienced a drop of 1.1%, with 116.1 117.5
prices finally closing at USD 2,610/mt, down USD 29/mt. In yesterday's trading session aluminium SUP 2 RES 2
has touched the low of 116.35 after opening at 116.4, and finally settled at 116.7. For today's
115.6 118.3
session market is looking to take support at 116.1, a break below could see a test of 115.6 and
where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 117.5, a move above could see prices testing 118.3. SUP 3 RES 3
Spread between aluminium MAY & JUN contracts yesterday ended at 0.75. Spread yesterday traded 114.8 118.8

OPEN
MCX NAT.GAS FUTURE

190.5
HIGH
193.6
LOW
190.2
CLOSE
191.1
% CNG
0.78
VOLUME
590
OI
3395
RE CNG
1.5

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas ended firm on Saturday but on week ended lower on the outlook for demand, as
stockpiles rose more than expected and commodities tumbled on speculation that economic growth P.P. 192.1
will slow. Gas dropped 9.9 percent this week, the most since the five- days ended Aug. 27, after the SUP 1 RES 1
Energy Department said inventories increased by 72 billion cubic feet last week. Gas stockpiles rose
190.7 194.1
to 1.757 trillion cubic feet in the week ended April 29, the Energy Department reported. Market has
opened at 190.5 & made a low of 190.2 versus the day high of 193.6. The total volume for the day SUP 2 RES 2
was at 590 lots and the open interest was at 3395.Now support for the Natural Gas is seen at 190.7 188.7 195.5
and below could see a test of 188.7. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.1, a move above SUP 3 RES 3
could see prices testing 195.5.
187.3 197.5

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ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX


MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE JULY SEPT DEC
JUNE 21880 279 632 JULY 54919 611 1335
AUG 22159 353 SEPT 55530 724
OCT 22512 DEC 56254
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver JUL & SEP contracts yesterday
ended at 279, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 611, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.16% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 205 - 279. 1.13% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 495 -
1272.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX


MONTH RATE MAY JUNE JULY MONTH RATE JUNE AUG
MAY 4416 60 114 JUNE 399.9 5.3
JUNE 4476 54 AUG 405.2
JULY 4530
Spread between crude APR & MAY contracts yesterday Spread between copper JUN & AUG contracts yesterday
SPREAD MARKET

ended at 60, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.3, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a positive node and settled
0.91% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 36 -0.33% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 4.8 -
60. 5.4.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX


MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 96.8 1.35 MAY 1110.9 10.2
JUNE 98.15 JUNE 1121.1

Spread between zinc MAY & JUN contracts yesterday Spread between nickel MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 1.35, we have seen yesterday that the zinc ended at 10.20, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.93% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.35. 0.65% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 10.20
- 15.9.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX


MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 192.6 5.2 MAY 962.6 -54
JUNE 197.8 JUNE 908.6

Spread between natural gas MAY & JUN contracts Spread between menthol oil MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at 5.20, we have seen yesterday that the yesterday ended at -54.00, we have seen yesterday that
natural gas market had traded with a positive node and the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node
settled 0.78% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of and settled 0.02% up. Spread yesterday traded in the
5.1 - 6.1. range of -69 to -53.5.

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DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
ECONOMICAL

11:30am EUR German Trade Balance 12.5B 11.4B


2:00pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 14.3 14.2
0 0 0 0 0
DATA

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Mon 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

Gold prices may have hit historic highs but this hasn't dented the allure of the yellow metal. Gold exchange traded
funds' (ETFs) turnover on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) shot up 44% year-onyear for January-April 2011 to Rs
1112 crore, data shows. Their total traded value on NSE, which was Rs 13.9 crore in 2006-2007 , skyrocketed to Rs
4074.3 crore in 2010-2011 , recording 313% compounded annual growth rate. "People have started realising the
importance of having gold in their portfolio as it has been giving consistent returns in the last few years," says Ravi
Prakash Sharma, who manages the SBI gold exchange traded scheme. "Retail investors are coming into gold ETFs.
The performance (of gold ETFs) is driving retail interest," says Dhruva Raj Chatterji, senior research analyst,
Morningstar India , an investment research firm. "Gold is seen as a safe asset during uncertain market conditions ,"
says an NSE spokesperson. Gold has given 22% annualised return between April 2007 and 2011, one of the best
among widely traded asset classes. Gold ETF is the among the top-2 performers in the one and three year periods.
NEWS YOU CAN USE

From just one scheme and 435 trading members in 2006-07 , the NSE, which started a website dedicated to gold
ETFs, hosted 10 schemes and 892 members in 2010-11 . Folios or investors accounts in gold ETFs have more than
doubled in one year to 319679 in 2010-11 .

The ministry of environment and forests, for the first time has chalked out comprehensive effluent standard norms
for the rubber industry across all product categories. According to official sources this measure will check the
pollution problem arising from rubber parks coming up in the country. While one was situated only in Kerala since the
last seven-eight years, some are coming up in Tripura now. Effluent standard is a type of limit imposed by the
environment ministry or any other government agency on quantities, rates and concentrations of materials/pollutants
in waste water discharges. While the order has been passed upon the intervention of the court, another salient
feature of this order is that this rule sets precedence for other industries as well. Earlier central government used to
make broad guidelines for the pollution norms and the respective state pollution boards used to frame laws. Now,
with the interim order of the High Court of Punjab and Haryana, if the state laws are found deficient or lacking
strength to combat the pollution issues in a respective industry, central government could frame the respective
pollution norms - air and water, and states have to abide by them and state pollution control boards will have to
monitor it.

Bond yields softened on Friday as global crude oil prices retreated further and strengthened hope domestic
inflationary pressures could ease marginally. The 10-year benchmark bond yield eased to 8.17 percent from 8.26
percent on Thursday, after hovering at 8.20 percent for most of the morning, and the second-most traded 8.13
percent, 2022 bond yield eased to 8.37 percent from 8.45 percent previously. Expectations that the government will
raise state-controlled fuel prices next week despite the pull back in global crude prices will keep underlying mood
cautious.

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