Kenya Vision 2030:

Transforming National Development

Presentation to Media Owners

Dr. Wahome Gakuru, NESC

Oct 2006
Contents

•Background

•Context and objectives

•Proposed approach

•Project organisation

•Next steps
Taking Stock

Achievements

Under

ERS 2003-2005
 Economic Growth
7

6
GDP Growth

4
Series1
3

0
2003 2004 2005

Years
Major Gains so far

9Revenue Growth by over Kshs 100 bn – Yr 2001 / 02.

9Tourism Growth by over 1.3 Million Visitors –Yr 2005

9Primary school enrolment 7.6 million - Yr 2005.

9Health Facilities 4,557 –Year 2003 -4,912 – Yr 2005

9CDF & LATF

9Percentage of Roads in poor state fell to 32% -Yr 2005.

Present Challenges

1. Unemployment Especially In Youth- Most Jobs In Informal

Sector.

2. Income Redistribution – Inequality

3. Rapid Urbanization – 6 % Annually

4. Low Saving Ratio (16%) Compared To Need

 Composition of our Economy over time

Sectoral Shares in Real GDP - 1964 - 1995

70

60

50
Percentage Share

40 Agriculture
Manufacturing
30 Services

20

10

0
1964-73 1974-79 1980-89 1990-95 2004

Years
 GDP Growth Rates Trends 1965-2003
24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10
Rate (% )

8 GDP Growth Rates

6

0
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
-2

-4

-6

-8 Year
Future Challenges

Projected Population Growth

60

50
Population (Million)

40

30 Series1

20

10

0
1969 1979 1989 1999 2025 2045
Years

Therefore: the Economy must grow to cater for this !

Future Challenges cont …

• Urban Areas may hold most of kenya’s future

population

Year 2001- 33%

Year 2030- 60%

We must start to tackle these

challenges now!!
Contents

•Background

•Context and objectives

•Proposed approach

•Project organisation

•Next steps
A PEOPLE WITHOUT A VISION PERISH

Ee Mungu nguvu yetu,

Ilete baraka kwetu,
Haki iwe ngao na mlinzi,
Natukae na undugu, amani na uhuru,
Raha tupate na ustawi…

•The National Anthem & National Flag are two critical

Galvanizing forces for all Kenyans

•While the Flag reminds us of our common heritage and the

National Anthem gives us a proper moral foundation and
commitment, still “a People without a Vision Perish.”

•The Kenya Vision 2030 is the answer to this and through

it we commit ourselves to creating a great future for all our
children
THE ONE OVERIDING PRINCIPLE

•The Vision should be one that:

–Kenyans can identify with;

–Kenyans can believe in;
–Kenyans can rally to as with the National
Anthem & National Flag;
–Is inclusive of Kenya’s diverse cultures,
religions, races, & geographic areas of interest.

•Therefore, the Vision 2030 Project should be

insulated from Political Competition at all times.
NESC HAS CRAFTED A DRAFT VISION FOR KENYA

Overarching vision
A globally competitive and prosperous nation
with a high quality of life by 2030
Visi
on

Economic Social Political

Strategy

Strategy To maintain a A just and An issue-based,

sustained cohesive society people-centered,
economic enjoying equitable result-oriented,
growth of 10% social and accountable
Master Plan p.a over the development in a democratic
Plans and next 25 years clean and secure political system
environment
implement
ation
Implementation
 Potential Kenya GDP
Vision 2030- The Highway to Nominal, $b
Joining Higher Income Countries 169

Country GDP Com parison

A jump of
$ 153.4 b
12
15.6

10 --------------------------------------------------------------------A 10% growth

rate p.a means
8
Real Growth Rates

3,065

4
A 660% jump
464
2

0
Potential Kenya GDP
Singapore (86-96)

Hong Kong (78-

Malaysia (90-00)

Kenya (95-02)
Chile (98-98)

India (95-05)

per capita*
in $
88)

*Assuming 2% population growth rate similar to 1990-2002 period

CBD of Tomorrow?
Transport system of tomorrow?
But the Vision on its own is not Enough
It must be supported by clearly thought out Strategies with clear
Priorities and Milestones/Targets

2030-
Destination

Target-10 Target-20
years from years
today From today

Target-5
years
from today

-2006-
Kenyans? On your
marks, … !!!!
 A Great Opportunity to Rally Kenyans Behind a Common Vision

Great push as the Country

emerge from economic decline

Changing Dynamics @
Regional and International Why must we Increasing Democratic
Levels, which affects our Space
competitiveness
act now?

Push to move beyond ERS to Sustained

Social & Economic Development
Contents

•Background

•Context and objectives

•Proposed approach

•Project organisation

•Next steps
The Project Approach
Phase I
High level diagnostic &
benchmarking:
•Understanding the
implication of the vision
and the key success
factors needed to realise it.
•High level national &
sector diagnostics to
isolate key indicators to be
compared with Kenya’s
peers & aspirational
Countries.
•Aim is to identify major
barriers to national &
sectoral devt & how to
overcome them.
•Important to identify
priority sectors with
possibilities of quick wins.
Phase II
High level strategies:
•Devt of major objectives
and priorities by key sectors
based on their competitive
advantage, unique
competencies & possible
inter-sectoral linkages for
vision 2030.
•Followed by devt of
strategies for each key
sector based on a thorough
analysis of the external
environment as well as the
internal capabilities of each
sector.
•These strategies should be
able to move the country to
the targets envisaged by
Kenya’s Vision 2030.
90 Person-Days Consultancy
4-5 Months Elapsed Time
Phase III
Master plan & Communication:
•Devt of comprehensive
implementation plans incl
activities, roles &
responsibilities
•Critical to detail resources
needed to realize vision
2030 targets, a
communication strategy for
buy in & an M&E system
with clear milestones for
effective control of project.
•Last, piloting of consultants’
recommendations in a few
sectors before full rolled out.
The consultant should
indicate how to do this.
Contents

•Background

•Context and objectives

•Proposed approach

•Project organisation

•Next steps
 A Highly Participative Supervision is to be Followed
National Steering Committee

Decision
Made up of NESC Members and Chaired
by H E the President
Meeting once very 4-6 weeks

Inter-ministerial Committee
Made up of PSs from Key Ministries
& Chaired by SC & HOPS
Meeting once very 3-4 weeks
Execution

Core/Technical Team
Made up of several Key mangers
drawn from the Public Sector&
including external experts as needed
Meeting Continuously

Ministerial Vision 2030 Committees

Made up of Approx 5-7 Top
Support

Ministerial Officers & 5-7 relevant

Ministerial Stakeholders & Chaired
by PSs
Meeting as necessary
Major Roles for Each Committee
National Steering Committee:
•Decide general orientation, priorities and framework of the project
•Provide direction to Operational committee
•Review project progress every 4-6 wks
•Evaluate the recommendations from the project

Inter-ministerial Committee:
•Define the content of the project and provide direction to the Core team
•Evaluate project progress regularly (every 3-4 weeks)
•Prepare the communication to the Steering committee

Core Team:
•Assume overall responsibility for quality of recommendations
•Establish contact with the various parties involved and act as coordinator
•Actively participate in the day-to-day work and the preparation of recommendations
•Ensure skill transfer is taking place
•Interface with experts to obtain views on industry developments and use experts as a
sounding board for recommendations
•Liaise with experts to arrange participation in key meetings and forums

Ministerial Vision 2030 Committees:

•Conduct a strategic audit to identify ministry vision & major milestones by 2030
•Identify strategic priorities of the ministry
•Identify the major constraints their ministry is facing in right of vision 2030 targets
•Make a set of recommendations that should be implemented with clear time horizons
to overcome constraints
Contents

•Background

•Context and objectives

•Proposed approach

•Project organisation

•Next steps
Progress To Date

– We have finalized putting together the Four

Committees to Lead & Supervise the Project
Plus a NESC Sub-Committee on Vision;

– We have finalised evaluating Bids/Proposals

from leading Strategy Consulting Firms and
are in the process of awarding the contract;

– We interviewed several candidates for the

position of Project Director for the day to day
management of the Vision 2030 Project and
are in the process of appointing the person.
What Next?

We get down to work

GOD BLESS HIS NATION

KENYA