The Inexorable Rise of China and America’s longstanding primacy:

how Asian countries should react in view of these regional dynamics

Midterm Essay, Readings in International Relations IV

KOMSAN NAWAKUNSUCHART
5041205524, 27 December 2010

Since Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening-up” policy – a big turning point of the People’s

Republic’s evolution from authoritarianism to more liberal direction – had been launched in the

late1970s, China has totally changed economically, politically, and militarily. Certainly, the

unceasing rise of China seems to be threat to the anterior superpower, the United States, and its

allies in East Asia. To examine this argument in which many academics and experts take side, we

have to explore how the rise of China becomes ‘threat’ to its neighbours and its contestants, as the

world leader.

China: A New Rising Star

After an alteration in the economic system was introduced, together with four modernizations –

agriculture, industry, science and technology, and defense, China’s status in the world stage has

totally transformed in 3 dimensions: economic growth, roles in international affairs, and military

power. Firstly, China’s economic growth incrementally continues due to its attractiveness. It is a

brass ring for all kinds of business to invest in a large country with the largest population. China

provides an appealing characteristic that is of lower cost of production, especially labour cost, and

huge market due to a great number of inhabitants. In addition to interesting economic growth,

Beijing has been very stable in the recent global financial crisis. Its financial status is strong enough

to loan America billions of U.S. dollar and to poise well in bad-weathered world economy.

Secondly, diplomacy is a moderate way for relationship among nations, both bilaterally and

multilaterally. Unlike transgressor and subordinate, China builds trust from diplomatic skills to

establish ties in line of its national interest. After Sino-Vietnamese war against occupation of
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Cambodia, there has been no such offensive operation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Economic interest drives Beijing’s desire for peace. However, Security is China’s primary concern

in international relations. On disputed territorial claims, even though Chinese Government achieves

to cooperate with neighbours, such as Russia, in limitation, it tends to stick with Deng’s “bide and

hide” slogan to avoid conflict with countries which claim same territory.

Finally, if China longs to be a great power, military power is one that must be strengthened.

Budget on military spending is accruing but sharing appropriably with GDP – it has been not over

than 3% of GDP for at least two decades. China needs its security policies to be accepted as

defensive and to protect national interest. In fact, Beijing has projected power into its backyard both

continental power in East Asia and maritime power in East and South China Seas. Sea lanes and

natural resources under the sea benefit China in economic preference. Notwithstanding, China’s

military modernisation postures it neighbours’ security at stake. Chinese development of missile

capability and submarine fleet, as well as Chinese hackers’ cyber attacks, can be inferred that China

poses a threat to neighbouring countries.

Challenge toward the Superpower

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 shifted the structure of international system from

bipolarity to unipolarity. The United States has placed on the supremacy as the only one

superpower. At this moment, the world is changing again. China is a new rising star with reasons in

the previous paragraphs. On the one hand, China becomes a powerful rival for many countries due

to its economic dependence in the same field and its position as a regional power or a global power.

On the other hand, China’s rise benefits every country that sees mutual interest. In addition,

economic ties help lessen conflict in other various issues. In particular, adversaries in any issue(s)

with economic ties will not clash against each other and lead to war because peace is the most

necessary for international commerce.

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 If the United States is concerned with the rise of China, the most important thing that

American policy-makers must figure out is how to remain status quo as superpower in the world

stage. Many think-tanks claim that China is dangerous to the US strategy in Asia and international

affairs. In my view, response toward China’s rise with interception is not work. Although the

United States is still the only one giant in the world, the new rising star can counterattack a bully

who damages him beforehand.

Arguments about current rising China go around these words: threat, distrust, aggressive,

etc. Not many people talk about advantages that everyone gains when China reaches a higher

status, ‘superpower’. In the post-cold war period, there is no more ideological confrontation; but

the substituting pattern of international relations is ‘cooperation’ without caring about cooperator’s

regime. The Hamburger Crisis, for instance, is a case that must be solved by leading economies –

the Group of Twenty (G-20) in which the United States and China are outstanding members.

Besides, traditional security – national defense with arm forces – is devalued whereas non-

traditional security, which relates to transboundary problems like epidemic disease, climate change,

human trafficking, becomes a new hot issue. Governments put non-traditional security into their

policy and development plan. Consequently, it is inevitable that governments have to coordinate in

issues which they are stakeholders. Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009 is a case of global

cooperation in the issue impacting on mankind, global warming.

The United States has experienced since the end of World War II that maintaining power as

superpower has been wasted a large amount of its budget. If China is ready to be responsible for world

affairs in cooperation with the United States, America should welcome sacrificing China in order to

lighten the load of American burdens over the world while the financial crisis in America and Europe

has still not recovered. This doesn’t mean only in economic, but also in world (security) order. The

PLA has evolved and modernised Chinese military in term of technology. Hence, China is now able to

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become global military power that is to build, to keep and maintain peace in every part of the world,

sharing with the United States.

Reaction of Asian Countries

In the same way as stated above, China and counties in Asia can live together with peaceful

circumstance. In spite of de facto relatively unequal powers among nations, all states are really

equal under the international law. Every state can create a security environment to sustain its

national interest; however, one’s more security is other’s more insecure. This state is also known as

‘security dilemma’. To become more secure, countries must cooperate their interest, in military –

collective security, in economic – trade partnership, for examples.

For Asian countries, as China’s neighbouring countries and sphere of influence, emerging

new military superiority has an effect on the regional security and military balance that Asian

leaders may perceive that China’s suspicion in the era of its rise is menacing their states. When

facing the rise of China, some leaders turn to intensify their relationship with Washington and enter

the American security umbrella. Between the two powers, Asian countries should balance them in

the name of ‘cooperation’ that will reciprocate in the issue of cooperation, or perhaps gain profit in

other issue – in the same manner as neo-functionalist ‘spill-over effect’. If a country bandwagon a

power, it will be hindered from benefits in bilateral relation or in the region. Nonetheless, it may be

the only one alternative for a country that conflicts with the PRC or the US. To illustrate, North

Korea has long-time with the United States or Taiwan has decades denied it is a part of China. For

me, I have to repeatedly address that regional cooperation will yield us less tension, less

confrontation and more security. As we – the Asian countries – have generated regional

cooperation for many years in various regional institutions, conflict and countermeasure relying on

military affairs are out-of-date. Normally, military attack produces physical and mental calamity as

a result. In any case, regional organizations, like Association of Southeast Asian Nations

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(ASEAN), preserve members’ interest, at least maintaining peace among its members. Although

some regional cooperation – such as ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) – is an intergovernmental

framework and mildly bound its partners, one of its successes is to build mutual confidence and to

prevent contradiction among partners.

Conclusion

Until now there is no guarantee that reaffirms the United States current primacy is not threat to others.

Like America, China may be a threat or an opportunity for any actors in the world. We cannot

determine whether a country is likely to be a threat or a non-threat without prediction. The prediction

needs a lot of factors both the country’s internal and international affairs and is not 100% correct

because it is just estimation. The true story is leaders’ diplomatic skill conducting two or more states

relationship, negotiating their state interest, reconciling ones’ discord, and fostering regional and

global order – particularly international norms and peace.

Lessons from world history indicate that the exorable rise of China is nothing new or special.

It is, like human lifecycle, just a dynamic of powers in the international system that consists of

newborn power, growing power, declining power and non-existent power. The United States may be

declining power in some day and China possibly replaces as a superpower. For any other countries, it

should be keep an eye on the changing world – which everything can happen like the global financial

crisis originated from America, the superpower.