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University Wire

January 15, 2009 Thursday

Ohio U. semester switch: Possible student enrollment decrease could be costly

BYLINE: By Frank Thomas, The Post; SOURCE: Ohio U.

LENGTH: 832 words

DATELINE: ATHENS, Ohio

An enrollment drop caused by the semester switch could cost the university up to $20 million, if past trends continue.

A 2000 study suggests that Ohio University's credit hour production could decline by as much as 20 percent over two
years, as students try to avoid being caught in the conversion.

The report, which surveyed 75 colleges in Utah, Georgia and Alabama that converted to semesters in 1998 and 1999,
recorded enrollment declines at universities that "caused a budgetary shortfall" and "led to measures such as hiring freezes
and reductions in scholarships offered."

Over the two years surveyed, a total of 67 transition colleges in Alabama and Georgia declined by an average of about 19
percent and 12 percent respectively, according to the study. The eight conversion colleges in Utah fared best of the three
systems, dropping an average of about 6 percent. The study noted that colleges whose enrollment dropped did not recover
immediately.

In 2007, a university committee projected that OU's credit hour production would drop between 2 and 9 percent during a
semester switch.

Transition team members have said OU would be shielded from enrollment drops, because the final four public Ohio
colleges on the quarter system are transitioning to semesters simultaneously, and students would not be able to find
quarters anywhere else within the state.Â

  According to the 2000 study, which analyzed systemwide conversions similar to Ohio's, as transition colleges in
Alabama lost enrollment, non-transition universities grew and expanded by 2 percent.

In Utah, which fared best among transition states, the single non-transition school grew by 22 percent over the two years
surveyed in the study.

In the second year of the survey when - much like Ohio - the vast majority of state universities were already using the
semester calendar, Âthree Alabama colleges converted to semesters, losing about20 percent of their credit hour
production.

The report noted that high-school enrollment or graduation did not decline over the time studied and should not be
considered as an explanation for the college enrollment declines.

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 John Day, associate vice provost for the academic budget, said an enrollment decline of1 percent would be equivalent to
about $1.6 million in lost tuition and state subsidy. He added that 100 students are equivalent to about $1 million in
revenue.

This means that, if credit hour production drops by levels described in the 2000 report, the university would lose between
$12.8 million and $20 million.

If OU drops by the levels described in the 2007 study, the conversion could cost the university $2between.1 million
$9and.5 million.

These losses do not include state funding, which accounts for about 33 percent of the university's enrollment-based
income.

Day said the state funding system, previously based purely on credit hour production, is in transition. He added though it
is difficult to speculate what effect a new system will have on revenue, projections show that the new funding model,
which considers student performance, will benefit OU.

Day also said OU would most likely see a spike in revenue just before the conversion as students originally scheduled to
graduate under the semester system take more classes, hoping to graduate early on quarters.

Craig Cornell, vice provost for enrollment management, said he isn't sure the 2000 study could be applied to OU because
there are too many factors to consider when studying enrollment. He added the transition team would do everything
possible to plan for and adjust to accommodate any possible drops in enrollment.

David Descutner, co-chairman of the transition team and associate provost for Undergraduate Education, said though he
questioned the validity of the study, the university will be prepared for enrollment declines by educating both current and
prospective students about the conversion with the purpose of easing any concerns that would drive them either to leave or
avoid OU.

"I don't think going into this just hoping for everything to be fine is smart," he said, adding the university should budget
for a possible enrollment decline and maintain a funding reserve to account for potential losses "just so we're not
surprised."

Descutner added he did know if possible enrollment declines had been presented to the Board of Trustees. Â

According to the 2000 study, even schools with initiatives specifically designed to manage enrollment losses declined.

Kennesaw State University had a number of "informational initiatives" to inform students, but still lost 11 percent of the
credit hour production.

Mike Williford, associate provost of institutional research, said he could not speak to the 2000 study's validity, but he had
predicted the possibility of an enrollment drop in the past. He added the team was doing everything possible to plan for
transition problems.

"We're doing what we can to monitor that and prevent (an enrollment drop) from happening," he said.

(C) 2008 The Post via UWIRE

LOAD-DATE: January 16, 2009

LANGUAGE: ENGLISH

PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper

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