International banker to become Palestinian prime minister

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is

wrapping up his visit to Egypt, and will visit Italy
and Morocco before the end of this week. He has also
visited Qatar. The purpose of his trip is to present in
more detail the plan to achieve Palestinian statehood
by September of this year. But the plan is more an act
of desperation than a real opportunity to gain
independence.

His European and Arab colleagues will be far more interested to hear about the
process of forming a Palestinian government in the wake of the reconciliation deal
struck by Fatah and Hamas. The two parties signed an accord in Cairo in early May,
bringing their four-year conflict to an end. The new prime minister and other
government ministers will be announced in June. Various candidates for prime
minister are being discussed, but one name comes up more often than others, as I
learned from a source close to Abbas.

Olive branch or gun?

Palestinians want the UN to recognize Palestinian statehood in the absence of an

agreement with Israel on borders, as peace talks have stagnated. Palestinians, as
represented by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), currently have observer
status in the UN, which it received in 1974 shortly after the then Palestinian leader
Yasser Arafat gave a speech before the UN General Assembly in November of the
same year. “Today I have come bearing an olive branch in one hand and a freedom
fighter’s gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat: do
not let the olive branch fall from my hand,” he said, giving Israel a clear choice. Arabs
sometimes call it Arafat’s olive speech.

This fall his successor, Mahmoud Abbas, is also planning to speak at the UN, but this
time the stakes are much higher. The Palestinians are seeking full UN membership in
an effort to exert international pressure on Israel and to speed up the formation of a
Palestinian state.

The risks are also high. If the UN recognizes a virtual Palestine, and the Israelis
continue to obstruct actual statehood (which is likely), the UN vote could embolden
the Palestinians to stage a massive uprising. The revolutions sweeping the region have
been called the Arab Spring, but soon we may see the beginning of the Arab Fall.
Abbas told me recently that the Palestinians do not need a new uprising. But his new
allies from Hamas disagree. The threat of a new conflict in the region is growing, as
the opportunities for resolving the Palestinian issue at the negotiating table seem to
have been exhausted.

Technocratic government for a year

Nevertheless, the Palestinian leader is underscoring his peaceful intentions. At the

same time he is working to consolidate Palestinian unity, a process that Russia is
facilitating. A week ago representatives of Fatah, Hamas and other groups visited
Moscow and held talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

The Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want
Palestinian unity. The Israelis do not want to give up the lands they have occupied
and built settlements on since the 1967 war. It is easier to bargain with a weakened
opponent or to renounce negotiations altogether. But the union between Fatah and
Hamas also provides a pretext to walk away from the table. Israel views the Islamists
in Hamas as terrorists. If there are no talks, what will come next – war?

In the meantime, Fatah and Hamas are busy dividing portfolios in the would-be unity
government. Azzam al-Ahmad, the leader of the Fatah party in parliament and one of
the president’s confidants, told me they were planning to hold parliamentary and
presidential elections throughout Palestine in a year. He said Abbas will remain
president until the elections and then they will decide. Al-Ahmad also mentioned that
Fatah agreed to form a coalition government with Hamas for the forthcoming year.
This interim government will be technocratic; in other words it will consist of experts,
he said, adding that it will have no political agenda and will be headed by a politically
neutral figure.

The new face of Palestine

I was told by my source that Fatah wants 56 year-old Mohammad Mustafa, the head
of the Palestine Investment Fund, to be the interim prime minister. He is also an
economic advisor to the president and has all the makings of a compromise candidate.

“He is a true professional and has never been involved in corruption. He doesn’t need
this because he earned tens of thousands of dollars per month from his jobs with
international agencies. He is a wealthy and patriotic man,” my source in the
government told me on condition of anonymity.

Mustafa recently visited the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip for the first time in four
years. This is also a result of the reconciliation between the Palestinians. Mustafa said
he will begin forming a special investment fund worth $1 billion for Gaza.

The Palestinian authorities will invest one fifth of this sum and are hoping to attract
the rest from abroad. They want to repair the airport, upgrade the sea port, develop
the energy industry, purchase desalination equipment and build factories and housing.
Promoting the private sector will also be a focus.

The Islamists are enthusiastic about these plans. They believe current Prime Minister
Salam Fayyad is too willing to offer concessions to Israel, but they have respect for his
potential successor as a man that does not want to get involved in politics.

Mustafa had a successful 15-year career at the World Bank in the past, during which
time he worked on projects to promote private enterprise in the Middle East and
North Africa.

He has worked for Arab investment funds, for example in Saudi Arabia, and has
worked as a consultant to foreign governments such as Kuwait. He has also worked in
Iraq and Jordan. So, he is a well-known figure in the Arab world.

The Arabs are seriously worried about unemployment, corruption and lack of
housing. The programs that Mustafa worked on are very much in demand, and this is
why he may soon find himself in power.

But such technocratic managers are effective only in peacetime. When stones are
thrown and guns are drawn, new houses and apartments will be beside the point. The
Palestinians will have to make a choice, but their decision will largely depend on the
Israeli position. In effect, the two sides will have to make this choice together.

This article was originally published on RIA Novosti.

By Yelena Suponina