http://www.hkbu.edu.

hk/~awong/website%20info/tables/Durbin-Watson
%20statistic.htm

C) Statistical Empirical Findings

The preliminary statistic analysis των σειρών υγρασίας Υ και χρόνου Τ του πίνακα 1

have shown that οι μεταβολές της μεταβλητής Υ πιθανώς να προσδιορίζονται από το

ημίτονο της μεταβλητής Τ. Specifically, in this paper we have examined the

regression model Υi=b0+b1Sin(Ti)+ui in order to investigate the relation between

υγρασίας του καύσιμου με τον χρόνο όταν οι παράμετροι όγκος καυσίμου και μάζα

του πολυμερούς που εισάγεται στο καύσιμο παραμένουν σταθεροί.

Some diagnostic tests were performed to establish goodness of fit and appropriateness

of the model. First, it was examined whether the standardized residuals and squared

standardized residuals of the estimated model are free from serial correlation. The

results show (Table 3) that the LB statistics for the standardized residuals and

standardized squared residuals are not significant (Ljung – Box, 1978). In addition,

the independence of the standardized residuals is confirmed by the Durbin-Watson

statistics 1.87 (Durbin and Watson, 1950). Also, in the Table 4 the ARCH–LM Test

concerning two lags in the residuals (N*R2 = 0.92) showed that the variance does not

exhibit heteroskedasticity (Engle, 1982); that has been confirmed by the application

of White test (N*R2 = 4.94). Finally, with the application of the Jarque-Bera test

(0.936) it was found that the normality of the residuals u i cannot be rejected (Jarque

and Bera, 1987). – TO ΒΡΙΣΚΩ ΣΤΟ NORMALITY TEST

Table 3. LB test for residuals and squared residuals from the regression estimation
Standardized Residuals Squared Standardized Residuals
 Lag Autocorrelatio Partial LB(n) Lag Autocorrelatio Partial LB(n)
s n Correlatio s n Correlatio
n n
1 1 3.382
-0.216 -0.216 0.621 0.504 0.504 6
2 -0.135 -0.19 0.8925 2 0.057 -0.263 3.432
3 -0.05 -0.137 0.9356 3 -0.081 0.021 3.545
4 4 3.859
-0.079 -0.17 1.061 -0.125 -0.098 7
5 5 4.463
-0.023 -0.14 1.074 -0.159 -0.084 6
6 6 5.536
0.021 -0.092 1.0879 -0.189 -0.111 5
7 7 7.415
-0.053 -0.148 1.1989 -0.217 -0.13 4
8 8 9.691
-0.099 -0.242 1.7902 -0.195 -0.085 5
9 0.133 -0.055 3.9273 9 -0.095 -0.015 10.78
Note: LB(n) are the n-lag Ljung-Box statistics for the residual series. LB(n) follows chi-square variable with n
degree of freedom; the series of residual contains 9 observations .

Table 4. ARCH–LM Test for squared residuals

Squared Squared Squared   F-
Residuals Residuals Residual statistic
lag(-1) lag(-2) s lag(-3)
0.15163
-1.87527 0.638489 -0.11192 5
(0.589321
(-0.5534) ) (-0.6073)
Notes: Figures in parentheses are t-statistics

Table 5 presents results of the regression. The adjusted R2 (0.20) indicates that
changes of the Moisture του υγρού καυσίμου (Y) affected considerably by the Time
(T) που το υδρόφιλο πολυμερές ΤΡΑ παραμένει στο καύσιμο. Specifically, the size of
the coefficient b1 (-6,97) του ημιτόνου του χρόνου and its statistical significance is
interpreted as that η υγρασία του καύσιμου μειώνεται περιοδικά με τον χρόνο όταν οι
παράμετροι όγκος καυσίμου και μάζα του πολυμερούς που εισάγεται στο καύσιμο
παραμένουν σταθεροί. Η περιοδικότητα του φαινομένου μέσω των max-min τιμών
της υγρασίας δείχνει ότι η μέγιστη μείωση της υγρασίας που επιτυγχάνεται είναι της
τάξεως ≈ 39% και σε χρονική διάρκεια μιας ώρας.
Table 5. Mean Equations Υi=b0+b1Sin(Ti)+ui
b0 b1 Adjusted R2
59.075* -6.9704* 0.2
(2.746) (1.503)  
Notes: Standards errors are shown in parentheses. *indicates statistical significance at the 1% level.

3. Conclusions