Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Chinas Cable Cutting: Once is an Incident Twice is a Pattern Carlyle A. Thayer June 9, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] 1. What is your reaction to the continued harassment of China in this regard, particularly just several days after Chinese Defense Minister Liang pledged to maintainpeaceintheEastSeaattheShangriLadialogue? ANSWER:Thissecondincidentmakesclearthatapatternisemergingwherebyitis clearthatChinahasdecidedtoaggressivelyassertitssovereigntyovertheEastSea. ThisisadeliberateprovocativeactdesignedtosingleoutVietnamandintimidateit and drive a wedge between Vietnam and other ASEAN members. If Vietnam overreactsitwillbeseenastheproblemnotthevictim. 2.ObservershaveattributedChina'sincreasedaggressionintheSouthChinaSeato its intentions to claim a continental shelf or exclusive economic zone within the wholeareainsidethesocalledUshapedorninedottedlinethatappearsonmostof China'smaps.Doyouthink China's tacticswill work orjustbackfireinthisregard? Whyorwhynot? ANSWER:Chinahasnobasisininternationallawtoclaimeitheracontinentalshelf or exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These can only be claimed from land. China occupiesrocksintheEastSeaandthereisnobasisundertheUNConventiononLaw oftheSeatoclaimanEEZorcontinentalshelf.Chinaisinfactclaimingsovereignty overalltherocksintheSouthChinaSeaandadjacentwaters.Further,Chinaclaims that its domestic laws give it jurisdiction over the South China Sea. Chinese tactics willbackfirebecauseitsclaims,ifleftunchallenged,willgiveChinahegemonyover the South China Sea and control over the sea lines of communication or trade routes.ButWhenChinaactsassertively,asitdidpriortothe2ndUSASEANLeaders Meeting in New York last year, some ASEAN members argued that no mention should be made to the South China Sea in the joint statement because this would isolate China. China is counting on divisions within ASEAN to advance its claims. ChinasactionswillensurethattheSouthChinaSeaissuewillberaisedattheASEAN MinisterialMeetingandASEANRegionalForuminJuly. 3. How will an emphasis on peaceful diplomacy be working for Vietnam given the statusquo?

2 ANSWER:AtthemomentChinaisusingcivilianvesselsnotmilitaryshipstoassertits sovereignty. This makes it difficult for Vietnam to respond to protest its civilian oil exploration vessels. Vietnam must continue to rely on diplomacy to keep unity within ASEAN. China is counting on the fact that several members of ASEAN will oppose confronting China. Vietnam must exhaust all peaceful avenues otherwise ChinawillarguethatVietnamisthecauseoftheproblem.Theaimofdiplomacyisto testwhetherthetopChineseleadershiphasapprovedthisnewwaveofaggressive assertiveness or whether Chinese actions are the product of specific of Chinas OceanicManagementbodyand/orlocalauthorities.Thepurposeofdiplomacyisto give Chinas leaders time to reflect on the consequences of their actions. But diplomacy must be accompanied by Vietnams resolve to defend and protect its sovereignty.Thisisadelicategame.Vietnammustnowescortoilexplorationships toensuretheirsafety.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Chinese Ship Cuts Second Vietnamese Cable Carlyle A. Thayer June 9, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] Why do you think China continues to cut cables of Vietnamese exploration ships? ArethereanywaystostopChina'sfromsuchacts? ANSWER: This second incident makes clear that China has decided to aggressively assertissovereigntyovertheEastSeabytargetingVietnam.Chinaaimstotestthe mettle of Vietnams leadership and ASEAN unity. If Vietnam backs down, it will be impossibletohaveastrongASEANdiplomaticunitedfrontagainstVietnam.Evenif Vietnam resists, some members of ASEAN are likely to recoil from this display of Chineseintimidationandurgeaccommodation. AtthemomentthisisabilateralmatterbetweenChinaandVietnam.Thetwocable cutting incidents involve Chinese civilian surveillance vessels not navy warships. Chinas actions will make foreign oil companies think twice about working with Vietnam. And Chinas actions present Vietnam with a dilemma about how best to respond. Vietnam must mobilize international opinion both regionally within SoutheastAsiaandamongthemajorpowers.Vietnammustalsocontinuetopress China for a diplomatic solution. But first and foremost Vietnam must take the difficultdecisiontodefenditssovereigntybyprovidingappropriateescortsforitsoil explorationvessels.ThisshipscaninterposethemselvesbetweenChineseshipsand theexplorationvessel.WithoutescortsChinawillganguponasingleoilexploration vesselandcutitscables.