Telecoms satellites market trends and forecasts

13th annual conference of operators and users of the Russian Federation satellite telecommunications network Dubna, 28 29 October 2008
Dubna Conference
October 2008

Paolo Salvato Vice President, Business Development

GEO Telecom market TAS presence in Russia

A long lasting experience with Russian partners

RSCC (domestic market)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Express-A1 (ISS) Express-A2 (ISS) Express-A3 (ISS) Express-A4 (A1R) (ISS) Express-AM11 (ISS) Express-AM22 (ISS) Express-AM2 (ISS) Express-AM3 (ISS) Express-AM33 (ISS) Express-MD1 (Khrunichev) Express-AM44 (ISS) Express-MD2 (Khrunichev)

Gascom
2. 3. Yamal-201 (Energia) Yamal-202 (Energia)

Roscosmos
6. 7. Luch-5A (ISS) Luch-5B (ISS)

Export
10. 11. 12. 13. SESAT (ISS) KazSat 1 (Khrunichev) KazSat 2 (Khrunichev) AMOS 5 (ISS)

15 Years of consistent, successful industrial partnership, for Russia and export programs
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GEO telecom Satellite and Payload Orders 2007 2008 to date

2007 2008 to date orders Many orders related to business development initiatives in mobile and broadband segment New entrants (countries, operators) Thales Alenia Space confirmed leading position, at satellite and payload levels Remains the sole payload provider to other Primes (36 % market share) Luch 5A, Luch 5B, AMOS 5 payloads for ISS Reshetnev, confirming a fruitful long lasting cooperation, started in 1993 Kazsat 2 payload for RSCC / Khrunichev Commercial GEO Telecom Satellite orders 42 Satellites

The telecommunication satellite industry is in good shape Dynamism of Russian players

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GEO Telecom market trend

Mobile The fixed satellite market remains the core market segment for the satellite industry, completed by new applications infrastructure needs Two market segments were particularly dynamic : Mobile services in L and S Band Innovative initiatives and new comers in the past years - Peak of procurement in 2005-2006 High speed Internet access in Ka Broadband Resulting from a successful deployment in the USA Satellites under manufacturing Russia represents an average of 10 % of satellites ordered
Satellite orders

Broadband

Core Market

More complex Satellites with mobile & broadband initiatives driving innovation Development opportunities for Satellite Operators
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Telecom Innovation Satellite Mobile broadcast

Worldwide Mobile broadcast satellite fleet could reach up to 25 satellites in 10 years A significant presence and precursor role for Thales Alenia Space
ICO TERRESTAR Solaris Europasat EUROPE Solaris
CHINA CMB Satellite

XM Radio XM Radio SIRIUS SIRIUS

WorldSpace
MIDDLE EAST S2M

MBSAT

LATIN AMERICA

INDIA ISRO/DEVAS

existing projects New Projects

A real opportunity for a Satellite Mobile Broadcast project in Russia, to support digitization of Radio and Mobile TV, domestic market and Homeland Security needs
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Telecom Innovation Ka Broadband

Numerous satellite operators have launched programs using Ka band

Spaceway 1999 Telesat 2000 WildBlue 2003 Hylas 2007 Eutelsat 2008 EUROPE Solaris

Viasat 2008

MIDDLE EAST

Newsat 2007

existing projects

New Projects

Increasing trend for Ka band projects, high speed internet content direct to users Erasing the digital Divide: ubiquitous access to Internet, over wide areas
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GEO Telecom market trend The future

The demand for GEO Telecom satellites should remain stable in average over the decade,as a combination of satellites replacement (service continuity, market growth) and satellites ordered to serve new /emerging markets
Completed

Number of Satellites Forecast

Main dynamics
Traditional satcom market will continue to be the main market driver (HDT, IPTV, Telecom) Other business segments & drivers : broadband, mobile broadcast, reverse BSS, government, UAV New countries willing to sustain economical growth through the development of modern infrastructure Increased need for infrastructure investment optimization

Main technological evolutions

Satellite size and performances will continue to increase Satellite use optimization : adaptable and high connectivity architectures will provide satellite operators means to face market evolutions and new markets Satellite bandwidth optimization will continue to progress Ground segment developments

Technology will balance market expansion, in terms of GEO satellites ordered

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GEO Telecom market trend Satellite size evolution

Number of Satellites Completed Forecast

Small satellite demand to remain significant and stable Medium and Large satellite demand is expected to slowly shift towards S or XL but will remain significant, although the launch prices for the 3.5 to 4.5 tons satellites range are not the most attractive Very large satellite demand, which was sustained by new business take off (Regional DTH, Broadband, Mobile and HDTV), will continue to increase. The in-orbit experience will support the development of even more powerful satellites

Demand will remain diversified

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LEO Telecom market trend

Increasing need for real time and low latency services, as well as technology enhancements able to support increased bandwidth needs LEO constellations present complementarities with GEO based infrastructure and markets The procurement of New generation of existing LEO constellations is on going
OPERATOR Globalstar Orbcomm Iridium STATUS 2nd generation procured 2nd generation procured Procurement process on going FREQUENCY BAND SL VHF-UHF L MANUFACTURER TAS Sierra Nevada TAS & LM down selected LAUNCH DATES 2009-2011 2010-2011 2014-2016

03B Networks announced procurement of their first generation of satellites from TAS in September
OPERATOR O3b Networks STATUS 1rst generation (16 satellites) under procurement FREQUENCY BAND Ka MANUFACTURER TAS LAUNCH DATES 2010 - 2011

A second life for LEO constellations

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GEO Telecom market trend In summary

Although the average global demand for satellites remains stable, satellite missions will evolve
Dual satellites procurement: CAPEX optimization will push dual satellite initiatives forward (commercial /institutional/governmental) Multi- missions: based on increased role for hybrid payloads (C, Ku, Ka, S) Adaptability on board remains a preoccupation and will continue to penetrate the market

The ever increasing need for connectivity will drive development of systems, to support universal telecommunication services or high speed access to information, in existing bands and in Ka band. Ka Band will continue to develop In the Mobile market, L and S band limited bandwidth may drive a move of next generations towards new frequency bands The LEO constellations are back Emergence of new actors

Thales Alenia Space intends to remain the Partners of Russian players in to continue to serve Russian market development, while feeling at Home
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Thank you for your attention

Herve.sorre@thalesaleniaspace.com

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