End of Course Project

India Drought2004

Submitted by: SVRK Prabhakar, UNDP, India

svrkprabhakar@yahoo.com

Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework World Bank Distance Learning Institute

Content
1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 2. 2.1. 2.2. 3. 3.1. 3.2. 3.2.1. 3.3. 3.4. 3.5. 4. COUNTRYS BACKGROUND PHYSIOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHY CLIMATE AGRICULTURE ECONOMY VULNERABILITY TO D ISASTERS INDIA DROUGHT 2004 LOSSES R ESPONSE INDIAS DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM HISTORY I NSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE STATE AND DISTRICT LEVEL POLICIES , PLANS, LEGISLATIONS AND ACTS VARIOUS PLAYERS IN DM IN I NDIA S TRUCTURE FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN INDIA STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHS W EAKNESSES 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14

4.1.1. 4.1.2. 5. 6.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT REFERENCES

Tables
Table 1: Indias monsoon seasons and extent of rainfall received. Table 2: Nodal ministries for managing different types of disasters Table 3. List of major players in disaster management in India. 5 9 11

Figures
Figure 1. Share of major disasters in total loss in lives in India. Figure 2. The disaster management structure in India at state and below levels. Figure 3. Drought watch system in place in India. 6 10 13

End of Course Project

India Drought-2004
Executive Summary
India is a vast country and is prone to various hazards which often turn to devastating disasters. Among many such disasters are droughts to which the 68% of the countrys area is vulnerable to. India faced more than 26 drought events in its recorded history with more than five severe drought instances causing irrecoverable damage to the countrys socio and economic progress. Drought in 2004 was characterized by late onset of rainfall in many of the states causing severe damage to the countrys agricultural productivity in the rainy season and damage to the prospects of good harvest in the succeeding season as well. This case study tries to bring out the ins and outs of the drought 2004 and how it affected the country as such. Also emphasis was given on how to avoid such losses in the future events of drought.

1. Countrys Background
1.1. Physiography and Demography
India is a large country occupying an area of 329 million hectares inhabited by more than 1.3 billion people at a population density of 274/sq km. This entire area is divided into 29 states and 6 union territories. Among these 1.3 billion population, 74.27% of them live in rural areas and rest 25.13 in urban areas. Urban areas are growing slowly in recent times and hence the urban population. According to the 2001 census, India has a sex ration of 927 females per 1000 males with the ratio slightly higher in rural areas rather than in urban areas. The majority of population lies under the age group of 15-59 years and hence can be considered as relatively younger nation. Indias literacy rate is pegged at 52.2% with more educated male population (64.1%) than the female population (39.3%). Similarly, the urban dwelling population is more educated than the rural population (30.6%). India is a multi-religious country with more than eight religions followed in different parts of the country. The most dominant religion is Hinduism with more than 82% of population under it followed by Muslims (12.12%). Christianity takes third place at 2.34% of population following it. India is also the nation where the largest number of Muslims resides than in any other single country in the world.

1.2. Climate
Indias climate is monsoonal in nature with mainly two kinds of monsoons playing important role. They are south west monsoon and north east monsoon. The Table 1 presents the extent of rainfall received in the country according to the monsoons. Table 1: Indias monsoon seasons and extent of rainfall received. Phase Extent of rainfall received (%) 10.4 % 73.3% 13.3% 3.0 %

Pre-Monsoon (March-May) SouthWest Monsoon (Jun-Sept) NorthEast Monsoon (Oct-Dec) Winter Rains (January-Feb.)

India has a wide varied geographical and climatic environments owing to its size. One can find tropical to temperate climates from the extreme South to the North of the country. While the East is humid and occupied by rainy forests, the west is arid to semi-arid and characterized by desert environments (Rajasthan).

1.3.

Agriculture

India is agrarian economy with more than 70% of population living in rural areas and agriculture contributing to 20.3% towards the total GDP. India cultivates number of crops with principal crops including rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, cotton, chillies, sugarcane, tobacco, potato, cotton etc. India has a net cultivated area of 141.1 million hectares with 49 m ha being cultivated for more than once due to irrigation facilities or favorable weather conditions. India has a total irrigated area of 54.6 mha.

1.4.

Economy

Indias economy is one of the quickly growing economies in the world with a growth rate of 6.2% projected for the year 2003-2004. Despite the global recession, Indias economy showed a healthy growth in the past and shows its robustness and stability. The recent reforms have achieved the success in stabilizing the Indian economy and enhanced the economic growth based on sustainable current account deficit, stable inflation rate, rising domestic savings and lower fiscal deficit. More FDIs and current account convertibility made foreign investment a dream come to reality in India.

1.5.

Vulnerability to Disasters

As seen earlier, India is diverse in its geography as well as in its vulnerability to diverse natural disasters. The High Powered Committee (HPC) that was formed by the Ministry of Agriculture in 1999 identified several natural hazards that the country is prone to. Out of them, earthquakes, floods, droughts, cyclones, and landslides are estimated to be the major natural hazards affecting 60, 10, 15, 40, and 5 percent of the landmass respectively. Hence, it

6 is of high importance to have a multi-hazard approach to tackle many of these natural hazards from becoming disasters. The other natural hazards that the country is prone to are hail storms, dust storms, heat waves, cloud bursts, sea water inundation, desertification etc. Due to growing urbanization and unplanned growth which dont take care of disasters as a risk to the communities, the disaster vulnerability of the country has been ever growing. The following data shows the disaster risk index and vulnerability of the country (Source: BCBR, 2004). 1. Disaster Risk Index Casualties from four hazards (CRED) [killed/year] Relatives casualities from four hazards (CRED) [killed/mio. inh./year] Population [inh.] 2. Vulnerability Human Development Index GDP PPP per capita [$/inh.] Improved access to water supply [% of population] Urban population growth rate [% per year] Arable land [% of land area] Population density in flooded areas [inh/sqkm] The Fig 1 shows that the floods kill more people than any other natural disaster in India followed by cyclones (35%). This has more to do with their frequency rather than their lethality. 2'931.8 3.5 835,302,463 0.51 1,424.3 83.0 3.1 56.9 303.4

2. India Drought 2004

India is highly vulnerable to droughts as seen from the Figure 1. Share of major disasters in previous discussion both due to total loss in lives in India. its high dependence on the current rainfall as well as less area under irrigation. India faced a severe drought in the year 2002 which was termed as the fifth most severe one in the history of India. India managed to recover from this drought without much damage. The perilous effects of drought in 2002 could be summarized as July rainfall deficiency of -49% Monsoon 2002 deficiency of -19% Reservoirs recorded a lowest level in a decade by 34% Drought spread 1.8 million square kilometers 300 million people affected million cattle Affected Crop Area Affected - 62 million hectares (30% of total crop area)

7 Food-grains Production fall - 24 million tones from normal (12%) Drinking water shortage - 120,000 rural habitations and 500 Towns/ Cities

The subsequent year 2003 proved to be a normal year and the country produced more than 210 million tons of food grains out of it. However, the subsequent year 2004 proved again a threatening one in terms of rainfall etc. The 2004 rainfall situation was characterized by: Monsoon 2004-started well and remained in good phase till 3rd week of June. As on June end; o o o o All India rainfall was 2% below normal. 19/36 sub-divisions reported normal rainfall 9/36 subdivisions reported excess rainfall 61% of district received normal to excess rains.

July witnessed break conditions, which culminated into; All India rainfall of 15% below normal. Only 19 subdivisions received normal to excess rainfall. 45% districts received normal to excess rainfall. Sub-divisions like W and E Rajasthan, Gujarat, Saurashtra, H.P., West U.P., Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Punjab, Jharkhand, E and W M. P., Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha remained deficient for several weeks. Compared to 2003, the southwest monsoon in 2004 was erratic with prolonged weak/break monsoon conditions prevailing during late June, most of July, late August and early September over different parts of the country. For the country as a whole, the seasonal rainfall from 1st June to 30th September was 87% of its long period average (LPA) Out of 524 meteorological districts, 132 districts (25%) experienced moderate drought and 36 districts (7%) experienced severe drought conditions at the end of the season. Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, W-UP, W-MP, Haryana, Punjab, Karnataka, & Rajasthan affected. Kerala is on the verge!

The reason for this drought was attributed to the role of unusual warming over the equatorial Central Pacific during the monsoon season on the weakening of monsoon circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the equatorial central Pacific showed signs of warming towards end of June and the weekly SST anomalies increased from near zero in the first week of July to about 0.9 o C. by the end of July. This warming indicated the development of a weak El Nino over the Pacific.

2.1.

Losses
In most parts of the country, farmers have lost the seed they planted to deficient rainfall.

8 The projected GDP growth could not be achieved and employment generation suffered. The Andhra Pradesh Government, through a memorandum, sought Rs. 1,200 crores of assistance and 23 lakh tonnes of rice, putting the total loss so far at Rs. 1,550 crores. There's serious water shortage Sowing is late in the Punjab and in UP and lead to serious shortfalls. Drought had devastated a large part of the crops in Sangrur and Mansa and Ludhiana belt of Punjab. Paddy crop has been hit hard in Sangrur district and cotton crop has been facing rough weather in the Mansa-Sirsa area. There has been a stunted growth of various kharif crops and in certain parts the crop has withered. The daily average collection of milk from mill societies in rural Punjab has come down to 4.50 lakh liters. Last year, the collection figure during the corresponding period was 4.75 lakh liters. The drought has affected the milk yield of milch cattle. Moreover, shortage of green fodder has also affected the milk yield. While the drought partially damaged crops in 12,049 acres and prevented sowing in 52,362 acres, its total impact was limited to 0.6 per cent of cultivable land in Punjab. Twenty-two of Maharashtra's 35 districts have been seriously affected by deficient rain. The government has officially announced that 'drought-like conditions' are prevailing in the Vidarbha region. This could turn out to be Maharashtra's fourth consecutive failed monsoon. There's a massive shortfall in the sowing of coarse cereals, almost all of it due to the lack of rain in Rajasthan. Worst affected crop: bajra.

2.2.

Response

The central government has sent the review committees to the drought hit states. The committees have submitted their report based on which the government sanctioned the funds from the Central Relief Fund (CRF). Expert teams are being readied to visit various regions where rainfall has been deficient to assess the situation and make plans to provide timely and adequate relief to the affected population. Emphasis is also on minimizing deaths of livestock. Grain stocks are being increased in areas of low rainfall and measures are being taken to provide adequate drinking water. The Maharashtra Government has organized large-scale relief operations in 71 Talukas of 11 Districts where the people are struggling to cope with the drought. The Government has started more than 14,000 development works on which around 10.5 lakh people are getting employment under the employment guarantee scheme at present. Around 4,700 tankers are providing drinking water to a large number of towns and villages in these districts. The Government has set up around 700 cattle camps in which fodder and water are being provided to more than 7.5 lakh cattle. The Government has spent more than Rs. 1,400 crore on relief programmes ever since the State has come under the impact of drought.

3. Indias Disaster Management System

Disaster management, in its true concept and principle, has been relatively a new area in India. Without knowing it, India might have faced and managed many natural disasters being situated in South Asia which is considered the most prone area to natural disasters and losses, which could be more due to its high population density as well.

3.1.

History

Historically, the countrys disaster management has been characterized by response in the form of relief and rehabilitation of the affected population. This is highly visible by its historical relief manuals which enlist the procedures and rules to be followed in the wake of natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones etc. Mitigation, in terms of preparedness and prevention, is nonexistent in government policies and plans.

3.2.

Institutional and Organizational structure

In India, the subject of disaster management does not find mention in any of the three lists in the 7th Schedule of the Constitution. The basic responsibility for undertaking rescue, relief and rehabilitation measures in the event of natural disasters is that of the concerned State Governments, particularly the district administration. The role of the Central Government is supportive, in terms of supplementation of physical and financial resources and complementary measures in sectors like warning, transport and inter-state movement of food grains, etc. Table 2: Nodal ministries for managing different types of disasters Type of Disaster/ Crisis Natural and Manmade Disasters Drought Air Accidents Nodal Ministry Ministry of Home Affairs Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Civil Aviation

Major breakdown of any of the Essential Services Concerned Ministries posing widespread and protected problems Railway Accidents Chemical Disasters Biological Disaster Ministry of Railways Ministry of Environment Ministry of Health

Nuclear Accident inside or outside the country, Department of Atomic which poses health or other hazards to people in Energy India At the national level, the inter-ministerial National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) is the highest decision making body and supervises all disaster-related efforts. The NCMC is headed by the Cabinet Secretary and comprises of the officials from Ministry of Home Affairs and other support ministries. Similarly the Crisis Management Group (CMG), under the chairmanship of the Central Relief Commissioner (CRC) reviews contingency plans formulated by various Ministries/Departments/Organizations in their

10 respective sectors and appropriate measures for dealing with natural disasters. The Central Relief Commissioner is the nodal officer at national level responsible for coordinating ac tivities pertaining to disaster mitigation and relief.

3.2.1. State and District Level

Most of the states have Relief Commissioners who are in charge of the relief and rehabilitation measures in the wake of natural disasters in their respective States. The Chief Secretary is in overall charge of the relief operations in the State. The Relief Commissioner and the Additional Relief Commissioners function under his direction and control. In many states, Secretary of Department of Revenue is also in -charge of Relief.
CS DM TL? State DMC Dist. DMC City DMC City EOC City DM Cell TL? City DMT City TLF Cell Cell UDA State EOC Dist. EOC
Municipal Corporation Corporation

T L-1 ESF 1 T L-1 ESF1 T L-1 ESF1 T L-1 ESF1 T L-1 ESF1 T L-1 ESF1 T L-1 ESF 9 T L-9

Figure 2. The disaster management structure in India at state and below levels. The District Magistrate / Collector hold the responsibility for overall management of disasters. All the disaster management activities are undertaken by state and district administration and are operationalized on the basis of provisions laid down in state disaster management manual. Other bodies such as the Armed Forces and non-government organizations supplement the efforts of the state government. Such bodies become very useful at the time of emergency due to their unique strengths in the field. The Armed Forces are able to mobilize and coordinate large manpower in shortest possible time and the non-government organizations become useful instruments of communication with the community-providing succor at the much-needed hour. Under the new approach, Government of India is working with the State Governments to convert the Departments of Relief & Rehabilitation into Departments of Disaster Management with an enhanced area of responsibility to include mitigation and preparedness apart from their present responsibilities of relief and rehabilitation. Schemes for financing expenditure on relief in the wake of natural calamities are governed by the recommendations of the Finance Commission appointed by the Government of India every five years. Under the existing scheme, each state has a corpus of funds called Calamity Relief Fund (CRF), administered

11 by a State Level Committee, headed by the Chief Secretary of the State Government. The size of the corpus is determined with consideration to the expenditure normally incurred by the state on relief and rehabilitation over the past ten years. In case the funds under CRF are not sufficient to meet the specific requirements, state governments can seek assistance from the National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF) a fund created at national government level.

3.3.

Policies, Plans, Legislations and Acts

India, at the beginning of putting in place a comprehensive disaster management system, is still in the beginning of making DM policies, plans, and acts at various levels. Initiatives to set up Disaster Management Authorities as overarching bodies to manage disasters comprehensively have been undertaken by most state governments. State Relief Manuals are reviewed and updated periodically based on the experience of managing the disasters and the need of the State. Under the new initiatives, the relief code has been revised and converted into disaster management manual which includes disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness components.

3.4.

Various players in DM in India

The Table 3 presents a comprehensive list of players in disaster management in India. Many of these players were either non-e xistent or not active in disaster management till 2002. Table 3. List of major players in disaster management in India. S No 1 Major Player (Institute/Organization) Role

National Institute of Disaster HR plan for disaster management and Management (NIDM) capacity building of administrative machinery, Trend analysis and advisory role Bureau of Indian Standards Review of Building bye laws (BIS), Building Materials and Technology Promotion Council (BMTPC), TIFAC BMTPC, TIFAC, Broadcasting Communication Ministry of Awareness generation and Policy making and implementation, overall responsibility for management of disasters in the country Policy making and implementation, overa ll responsibility for drought risk management

Ministry of Home Affairs

Ministry of Agriculture

12 S No 6 Major Player (Institute/Organization) Ministry of water resources Role Policy making and implementation, overall responsibility for flood risk monitoring and management

CBSE, NCERT, All India Imparting education to children in Council for Technical Education disaster management, Technical and other educational c ouncils education to Engineers and architects State and local Urban bodies to oversee the implementation of disaster management policies and plans To be part of the National Emergency Response Teams and Implement the training strategy by imparting TOTs etc

9 10 11

Various security forces National Academies training institutions

Panchayati Raj Institutions Preparation of community level DM (Third tier of Govt in India) and plans and their implementation Urban local bodies Indian Meteorological Division Early warning and dissemination and Central Water Commission, National Remote Sensing Agency Federation of Indian Industries sensitization of corporate sector

12

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3.5.

Structure for drought management in India

India looks at slow onset disasters (such as drought) and rapid onset disasters in a different perspective and hence are dealt in different ways. While the rapid disaster management is looked after by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), the drought is being taken care by the Ministry of Agriculture. \ The drought management system in India comprises of a central weather watch group (CWWG) located at the ministry of Agriculture. The interministerial CWWG was set up by the Government of India with an objective of continuous monitoring of crop situation and monsoon progress in the country. As an inter-ministerial body, it is chaired and convened by the Central Relief Commissioner and draws members from the departments such as IMD, CWC, input supply divisions (seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides etc), agricultural extension specialists, Ministry of Power, Ministry of Petroleum and Department of Agricultural Research and Education. The group meets every week and assesses the agricultural and climatic situation prevailed in the preceding week and analyses the prospects for the coming week. The members present the information such as general rainfall situation, water levels in the major reservoirs, seed and fertilizer supply, and

13 power requirements in the wake of deficit rainfall for pumping the groundwater and crop production technology is prepared for aberrant weather conditions observed if any. During the process, the group identifies areas where the rainfall was deficit and has no prospects of revival of monsoon in the next couple of weeks, and identifies these areas as drought affected. The same report will be sent to the concerned departments as well as to the Drought Management Division (DMD), which is also another department in the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture. The flow of information is presented in the figure given here (Fig 3).

Figure 3. Drought watch system in place in India.

4. Strengths and weaknesses of the system

As the DM in India is still in the beginning stage, it is difficult to judge whether the system is going to be sustainable or not. However, an attempt has been made below.

4.1.1. Strengths
The system involves risk mitigation through preparedness and prevention measures. Country, state, and district level plans are being prepared which would emphasize the preparedness and quick response to the disasters. Once completed, these plans would be of one such robust ones in the world as the size of the population being addressed is enormous. A strong institutional mechanism led by the countrys elaborate bureaucratic structure, has been seen as one of its strengths (as said recently by one of the Government bureaucrat). Multi-stakeholder driven initiatives leading to greater networking and integrity. Community driven mechanism for reliable and quick response and recovery.

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4.1.2. Weaknesses
Lack of sustainability due to no automatic system that keeps things happening in terms of facilitation of communities and organizations to continue to work for longer term even in absence of a project driven initiatives. Poor investment by governments and institutions on research and capacity building in disaster risk mitigation Poor emphasis on the risk transfer mechanisms No reliable drought risk forecasting mechanism in long range and medium range time scales. Poor preparedness in terms of drought recovery immediately after renewal of monsoons Lack of one-stop solution for drought related problems in the country. Though the watersheds are seen as one such a solution, the problems persisted due to minimum emphasis on the community involvement as well as on the sustainability of bio -physical measures taken No reliable real-time drought monitoring mechanism. The decisions taken are much later and are not timely. No standard loss assessment due to drought leading to intrusion of political interests and overburden on the states exchequer.

5. Recommendations for improvement

Quick expansion of disaster risk mitigation initiatives to take care of mass awareness and education at all levels Development of fund for risk mitigation initiatives Establishment of mechanism for proper auditing of relief and rehabilitation expenditure in the country Greater involvement of local communities in decision making on their safety and prosperity Establishment of dependable drought monitoring system on the lines of US Drought Monitor (UNL) Introduce state-driven risk transfer measures to the vulnerable sections of the society Shift from relief to preparedness and prevention of drought risk on the lines of sudden disaster risk mitigation initiatives Strengthening the medium range weather forecasting capabilities Integrating climate change related adaptive capacities in the existing policies

6. References
DAC. 2001. High Powered Committee on Disaster Management: Report. Building culture of prevention. Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, India. DAC. 2002. Drought 2002. A Report. Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, India.

15 Gupta, M.C., Sharma, V.K., Gupta, L.C., and Tamini, B.K. 2001. Manual on natural disaster management in India. National Disaster Management Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. NDMD. 2004. Disaster management in India: A status report. National Disaster Management Division. Ministry of Home Affairs. Government of India, India.