Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Other Factors
Financial & Economic Crisis
Demand Side
Religious Festivals
Inflation
Industrial Demand
Political Risks
Golden China
Dollar
Jewellery - 58% Industrial & Dental - 11% Bar & Gold Coin Retail Investment - 23% ETFs & Similar Products 8%
1780
1100 1000 900 US$/Oz 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
The inflows into ETFs have thus far continued unabated, buoyed by rally in gold prices Safe haven buying is supporting the price of Gold
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Gold.org
8,133 3,408 3,217 2,452 2,435 1,780 Gold Reserves (Tonnes), Q3 2009 1,054 1,040 765 612 591 558 (includes 200 tonnes purchase from IMF) 537 424 383 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
9,000
Gold ETFs holding globally is ranked 6th vis--vis other Central Banks and IMFs gold reserves China has increased its gold reserves by 166% since 2000
Source: World Gold Council, Gold.org. IMF: International Monetary Fund
Total supply of gold, including scrap gold sales is over 3500 tonnes in 2008 Mine production in 2008 was around 2064 tonnes
Supply Mine Production (net of hedging) Official Sector Sales Old Gold Scrap Total Supply
De -hedging Since mine operators are subject to substantial capital expenditure for exploration and production, they sell parts of their future gold output forward. The cancellation of these forward positions is called De-Hegding. i.e additional gold is taken off the market
Real value of Gold will increase in the long term as production declines
Gold Mine Production (1990-2008) Price of Gold Gold Mine Production
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 US$/Oz
Gold Mine production has been on a decline peak production was in the year 2001 over 2,600 tonnes New Gold Mine deposits are harder to find
Source: U.S Geological Survey, Bloomberg
19 9 19 0 9 19 1 9 19 2 9 19 3 9 19 4 9 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 7 9 19 8 9 20 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 20 2 0 20 3 0 20 4 0 20 5 0 20 6 0 20 7 08
Tonnes
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Gold Supply roughly is 2500 tonnes (mine production) per annum Traditional demand exceeds the supply significantly some of this gap is filled by recycled Gold (old gold scrap sales)
Source:World Gold Council, Gold.org
10
2008
500 400 600 500 400 Tonnes 300 200 100 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 0
433 260
CBGA II Limit
Tonnes
CBGA I Limit
Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09
Central Banks around the world (including CBGA signatories) have turned into net buyers of Gold in 2009
Source: World Gold Council, Gold.org CBGA: Central Bank Gold Agreements
11
Conclusions
No major threat of increased supply Declining production and increasing demand make Gold very attractive Central banks selling less declining trend Strong demand for Gold in emerging markets, particularly India and China Strong investment demand investments in Gold ETFs already rank 6th
12
13
2475
1527
Jul- Dec- May- Oct- Mar- Aug- Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Sep- Feb04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 09
Jul- Dec09 09
Gold is renowned as a hedge against inflation as inflation goes up, price of Gold also tends to go up Gold preserves the purchasing power and infact even increases it gradually Inflation adjusted gold prices have generated a positive rate of return in the last 7 years
Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future
Source: Bloomberg. Data as on 31st Dec, 2009.
14
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-04
Mar-05
Mar-09
0.99 15.93 19.19 1.44 0.32 0.14 5.07 11.59 1.35 0.91 1.08 0.87 0.59 1.12
9.09 17.15 11.35 19.95 8.90 14.71 10.53 2.06 13.00 16.28 22.25 13.94 6.87 1.81 1.48 9.48 6.57 1.40 1.21 9.04 11.96 1.71 2.73 1.09 0.54 0.43 6.15 1.35 1.60 1.03 4.05 1.86 1.71 8.02 1.74 1.43 1.10 1.09 1.94 1.77 0.91 5.82 11.75 11.02 1.71 2.65 2.51 2.58 2.25 1.95 2.57 1.99 1.67 1.66 1.77 0.98
Jun-08
9.73 42.04 18.48 5.65 2.09 19.73 16.90 3.68 2.06 1.90 2.41 2.33 2.30 1.48 1.30 0.67
-0.16 1.84
Worst
15
Dec-09
Mar-04
Mar-06
Mar-07
Jun-04
Jun-06
Mar-08
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Best
-0.30
-0.46
-0.48
Gold has historically exhibited an inverse relationship to the US dollar, which has grown stronger in the recent years Gold is bought and sold in US dollars, so any decline in the value of the dollar causes the price of gold to rise
Source: Bloomberg. Data as on 31st Dec 2009.
16
Median : 7.8
2009
Currently, the ratio is 9.5, the historical median is 7.8. Gold still looks attractively valued in comparison with US shares Although it is significantly below its peak in 1999, it is still 9 times higher than in the 1930s and 1970s bear market bottom
Source: Bloomberg. Data as on 31st Dec, 2009. Dow/Gold ratio shows the ratio of price of gold with the price of the Dow Jones. In another words, it represents the number of ounces of gold it takes to buy one basket of the Dow Jones index
17
1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.80 -1.00
1.00
0.04 -0.04
GOLD
A portfolio comprising of un-correlated assets generally has low volatility If one asset class underperforms, it is compensated by the out performance of other asset classes, thereby stabilizing overall returns
Source : CRISIL, Bloomberg, Religare Mutual Fund. Short Term debt represented by Crisil Short Term Bond Fund Index and Long term debt represented by Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index. Cash is represented by Crisil Liquid Fund Index. Correlation is a statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other.
18
0.3
Nifty and Gold - Monthly Volatility (July 1990 Dec 2009) Nifty Gold
0.25
0.2
(%)
0.15
0.1
0.05
19
Jan-2009
Dec-2009
0 1993 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2005 1990 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 2000 2004 2006 2007 1997 1998 2008
Nifty Returns (%) Gold Returns (INR) (%) MSCI World Index (%)
5.52% -0.80% -17.45% -13.78% -21.95% -18.91% 7.2% 41.99%
(%)
-5.96%
-49.92%
-48.99%
Jan 00 May 02
April 04 Jun 04
Date Range Jan 00 - May 02 Apr 04 - Jun 04
Mar 06 Jun 06
Nifty Returns -17.45% -21.95%
Dec 07 Mar 09
MSCI World Index -13.78% -0.80%
Event Dotcom Bubble Unexpected Election result leads to sharp fall in India and Trading Suspension, World markets uneasy ahead of First Fed rate hike in 4 years Heavy selling by FIIs, retail investors and global weakness. Credit Crisis
-18.91% -49.92%
7.2% 41.99%
-5.96% -48.99%
20
40 13,900
21
Presenting
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Parameters
Mode Safety/ Storage Purity of Gold Pricing Liquidity Denomination
Jeweller
Jewellery / Bar/ Coins High Risk Cant Say Cant Say Relatively at High Cost Pre-defined
Banks
Bar / Coins High Risk High on Purity High Mark up Low on Liquidity Pre-defined
30
31
250
200
USD
150
150
100
100
M ay-0 7
M ay-0 8
M ay-0 9
N ov-0 7
N ov-0 8
Jan -0 5 M ar-0 5 M ay-0 5 Ju l-0 5 S e p -0 5 N ov-0 5 Jan -0 6 M ar-0 6 M ay-0 6 Ju l-0 6 S e p -0 6 N ov-0 6 Jan -0 7 M ar-0 7 M ay-0 7 Ju l-0 7 S e p -0 7 N ov-0 7 Jan -0 8 M ar-0 8 M ay-0 8 Ju l-0 8 S e p -0 8 N ov-0 8 Jan -0 9 M ar-0 9 M ay-0 9 Ju l-0 9 S e p -0 9 N ov-0 9
Owning the stocks of commodity companies is not the same as owning the underlying commodity The movement of the commodity price is not always reflected in the movement of stock prices as a stock trades based on long term average prices rather than current prices
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
Source: Bloomberg. Data as on 31st Dec 2009.
32
N ov-0 9
S e p -0 7
S e p -0 8
S e p -0 9
M ar-0 7
M ar-0 8
M ar-0 9
Jan -0 7
Jan -0 8
Jan -0 9
Ju l-0 7
Ju l-0 8
Ju l-0 9
50
50
Key Facts
Type Investment Objective Asset Allocation
An open-ended Gold Exchange Traded Fund To generate returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by investment in physical gold in the domestic market, subject to tracking error Type of Instruments Physical Gold Debt and Money Market instruments
* Investments in securitized debt can be made by the scheme up to 10% of the net assets
Rs. 5,000 per application and in multiples of Re.1/1 unit = approx. price of 1 gram of Gold Entry Load: Nil Gautam Kaul National Stock Exchange (NSE) & Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Price of Gold Exit Load: Nil
33
Compliance Information
Disclaimer: This information alone is not sufficient and shouldnt be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. The readers should exercise due caution and/or seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision or entering into any financial obligation based on information, statement or opinion which is expressed herein. All opinions, figures, charts/graphs, estimates and data included in this presentation are as on date and are subject to change without notice. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The data used in this material is obtained by Religare AMC from the sources which it considers reliable. While utmost care has been exercised while preparing this document, Religare AMC does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice. Risk Factors: All mutual funds and securities investments are subject to market risks and there can be no assurance that the objective of Scheme will be achieved. Investment in mutual fund units involve investment risks such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including the possible loss of capital. As with any investment in securities, the NAV of the units issued under Scheme may go up or down depending upon the factors and forces affecting the securities markets. As the Scheme will invest primarily in physical gold, the NAV of the Scheme will react to the price of gold. The prices of gold may be affected by several factors such as demand and supply of gold in India and in the global market, change in political, economical environment and government policy, inflation trends, currency exchange rates, interest rates, perceived trends in bullion prices, restrictions on the movement/trade of gold by RBI, GOI, etc. Past performance of the Sponsor and its affiliates / AMC / Mutual Fund and its Scheme(s) do not indicate the future performance of the Scheme of the Mutual Fund. There is no assurance or guarantee to unit holders as to the rate of dividend distribution nor that dividend will be paid regularly. Investors in the Scheme are not being offered any guaranteed / assured returns. Religare Gold Exchange Traded Fund, an open-ended Gold Exchange Traded Fund is only the name of the Scheme and does not in any manner indicate either the quality of the Scheme or its future prospects and returns. Please read the Statement of Additional Information (SAI) / Scheme Information Document (SID) before investing. SID, SAI and Key Information Memorandum cum Application Form are available at the ISC/Distributors. Terms of Issue: Offer for Units having face value of Rs. 100 each and will be issued at a premium equivalent to difference between the allotment price and face value during the New Fund Offer. After the closure of NFO, the Units of the Scheme will be listed on Stock Exchange(s) and the same can be purchased / sold in round lots of 1 Unit during the trading hours of the Stock Exchange(s) like any other publicly traded stock. In addition to purchase and sale of Units on Stock Exchange(s), Authorized Participants and Large Investors can directly subscribe to or redeem the Units of the Scheme with the Mutual Fund in Creation Units size at NAV based prices on all Business Days during an ongoing offer period. The NAV of the Scheme will be disclosed on all Business Days. Statutory Details: Religare Mutual Fund has been set up as a trust sponsored by Religare Securities Ltd. (liability restricted to Rs. 1,50,000) with Religare Trustee Company Ltd. as the Trustee (Trustee under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882) and with Religare Asset Management Company Ltd. as the Investment Manager. Disclaimer of NSE/BSE: It is to be distinctly understood that the permission given by National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) / Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. (BSE) should not in any way be deemed or construed that the Scheme Information Document has been cleared or approved by NSE/ BSE nor does it certify the correctness or completeness of any of the contents of the draft Scheme Information Document. The investors are advised to refer to the Scheme Information Document for the full text of Disclaimer Clause of NSE/ BSE. Religare Enterprises Limited (REL) proposes, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, to make a rights issue of its equity shares to its existing shareholders and has filed a letter of offer (LOF) with the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE, together with BSE, the Stock Exchanges) and the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The LOF is available on the websites of the Stock Exchanges and SEBI at www.bseindia.com, www.nseindia.com and www.sebi.gov.in, respectively, as well as on the website of the lead manager at www.enam.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk and for details relating to the same, please refer to the section titled Risk Factors of the LOF.
34
For a more in-depth look at the Religare Gold Exchange Traded Fund, visit www.religaremf.com or call 1800 - 209 - 0007 for more information. Corporate Office: Religare Asset Management Company Limited 3rd Floor, GYS Infinity, Paranjpe B Scheme, Subhash Road, Vile Parle (East), Mumbai - 400 057 T +91 22 67310000 F +91 22 28371565