Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Tipos de inters
ndice
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
REINVERSIN
Precio =
t =1
cash - flow t
(1 + i t ) t
PRECIO
Subidas:benefician a la
posicin activa
Bajadas:benefician a la
posicin pasiva
Bajadas:benefician a la
posicin activa
Subidas:benefician a la
posicin pasiva
Composicin
Precio bono
vencimiento
cupn
tipo de inters
Mariano Gonzlez Snchez
ACTIVA
reinversin
PASIVA
precio
precio
bajadas del tipo
amortizacin alejada del
vencimiento
refinanciacin
Aproximacin lineal de la
relacin tipos y precio
Momento temporal de
compensacin de riesgos
Vencimiento medio
precio = reinversin
HT = D
HT < D
no hay riesgo
subida: precio activo
bajada: precio pasivo
HT > D
subida: refinanciacin
bajada: reinversin
precio
precio-D
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
1
2P
Cv
=
2
2
r
(1 + r )
t ( t + 1) cf t
(1 + r )
t=1
1
D
+ Cv r r P
P =
1+ r 2
t ( t + 1) cf t (1 + r )
mmP
-t
i t =1
m
m periodo anualizado de pago de cupon
1+
10
A mayor D mayor Cv
Bonos con igual D y cupn
A mayor cupn mayor Cv
su eleccin depender de
A mayor dispersin de los
Cv
flujos mayor Cv
Para bonos con opcin de
A mayores cambios de r
amortizacin anticipada Cv
mayor Cv, siendo la relacin
es negativa (concavidad)
positiva, al contrario que la
D.
precio
11
precio-D
Mariano Gonzlez Snchez
precio-D,Cv
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
ndice
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
12
(1 + i )
0 ,t
13
14
Empleo de la ETTI
Tipos de curvas
15
16
365
i 365 = i 360
360
t
(1+ i S t) = (1+ i C ) = ert
Interpolacin vrtices
i 1,5 =
17
t 1,5 t 1
t 2 - t1
i2 +
t 2 t 1,5
t 2 - t1
i1
xi ,1 = t ci ,t
xi ,2 = t 2 ci ,t
xi ,3 = t 3 ci ,t
yi = 0 xi ,0 + 1 xi ,1 + 2 xi ,2 + 3 xi ,3 + i
18
19
fecha
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
25-07-05
vencimiento
precio
cupn %
30-01-06
105.5107
4.00%
15-04-06
105.6818
3.50%
21-08-06
105.4079
3.90%
17-06-07
106.2937
3.80%
04-08-07
106.7178
2.36%
12-11-07
106.5795
1.15%
06-12-08
106.2028
1.14%
01-09-09
107.6459
4.25%
16-09-09
107.1018
4.05%
04-04-10
108.5369
4.00%
01-09-10
109.1902
3.95%
10-12-10
110.4449
4.08%
15-01-11
111.3859
3.85%
30-01-11
112.2426
2.00%
12-09-16
115.0007
2.95%
Mariano Gonzlez Snchez
a(1)
a(2)
a(3)
R^2
20
365
4.18%
730
7.05%
1095
7.52%
1460
7.34%
1825
6.92%
2190
6.40%
2555
5.86%
2920
5.34%
3285
4.89%
3650
4.53%
T 1
T
T
t
t < T
(1 + r )
0,T
B0,T = B0,t Bt ,T
T
= (1 + r0,t ) (1 + rt ,T )
t
1/ ( T t )
21
(1 + r )T
0,T
rt ,T =
t
(1 + r0,t )
(T t )
22
1d
1m
3m
6m
9m
1y
2y
3y
5y
7y
10y
3,2%
3,1%
3,15%
3,12%
3,15%
3,1%
3%
3,05%
3,07%
3,1%
3,1%
5-4
4 3
3 ,0 5 % +
3 ,0 7 % = 3 ,0 6 %
5-3
5 3
6 y = 3 ,0 8 5 %
4y =
8 y = 3 ,1 %
9 y = 3 ,1 %
23
1d = 1 + 0,03244
1 = 3,297%
365
365
30 30
1m = 1 + 0,03143
1 = 3,189%
365
3m = 3,233%
6m = 3,188%
9m = 3,211%
1y = 3,143%
2y = 2,997%
3y = 3,001%
4y = 2,968%
5y = 2,935%
6y = 2,908%
7y = 2,882%
8y = 2,843%
9y = 2,806%
24
10y = 2,771%
1d = 3,297%
1m = 3,189%
3m = 3,233%
6m = 3,188%
9m = 3,211%
1y = 3,143%
2,997
102,997
100 =
+
2 y = 2,995%
1,03143 (1 + 2 y) 2
100 =
3,001
3,001
103,001
+
+
3y = 3%
1,03143 (1,02995) 2 (1 + 3y)3
4y = 2,965%
5y = 2,931%
6y = 2,903%
7y = 2,875%
8y = 2,833%
9y = 2,792%
10y = 2,754%
25
tipos mercado
Mariano Gonzlez Snchez
ndice
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
26
27
dS = S dt + S dz
E (dz ) = 0
dz proceso Wiener
2
= dt
E
dz
( )
28
t=0
29
plazo
Mariano Gonzlez Snchez
t=T
DRIFT
drift (1) = dt
drift ( 2 ) = t dt
drift ( 3) = ( St ) dt
drift ( 4 ) = ( t St ) dt
DIFFUSION
diffusion (1) = dt
diffusion ( 2 ) =
{
d
d
dt
t =a
( t ) dt + dW
t = dt + dW
diffusion ( 3) = dt +
dq
salto
Poisson
diffusion ( 4 ) = t dt + dq
30
31
Modelizacin
1
t
R ( t ) = 1 + ( 2 + 3 )
R ( t ) = 1 + (2 + 3 )
t
t
4
1 exp
3 exp
t
4
4
t
t 56
t
t
4
1
exp
exp
1
exp
5 exp
t
4
4 t
6
6
Modelizacin
drt = ( + rt ) dt + rt dW t
Merton
drt = ( rt ) dt + dW t
CIR
drt = ( rt ) dt + rt 0.5 dW t
Vasicek
Brennan y
Schwartz
drt = ( rt ) dt + rdW
t
t
drt = a + b ( Lt rt ) dt + rdW
t
t
dLt = Lt [ rt + Lt ] dt + Lt dZt
Fong y
Vasicek
drt = ( rt ) dt + tdWt
Longstaff y
Schwartz
dxt = a ( x xt ) dt + xt0.5dWt
dt2 = ( a b t2 ) dt +t dZt
dyt = b ( y yt ) dt + yt0.5dZ t
rt = 1 xt + 2 yt
32
Autores
Ho y Lee
Hull y White
Hull y White
Modelizacin
d rt = t d t + d W t
d rt =
rt
]d
t +
d W
drt = [ t + t rt ] dt + dW t
d t = t dt + dZ t
Black y
Karasinski
Black,
Derman y
Toy
Heath,
Jarrow y
Morton
33
d ln rt = (t at ln rt ) dt + t dWt
d ln rt = t t ln rt dt + t dWt
t
df t ,T = t ,T + i ,t ,T dW i ,t
i =1
t ,T
= i ,t ,T i ,t ,u du
i =1
t
ndice
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
34
Posicin LARGA
Posicin CORTA
CONTABLE
Posicin NEUTRA
35
Activos = Pasivos
Slo habr riesgo si no
coinciden en vencimiento
Mariano Gonzlez Snchez
Consolidacin
ECONMICO
Facturacin
Abastecimiento
Competencia
Posiciones en divisas
36
Causas fluctuacin
Oferta y demanda
Cubrir posiciones
Gestionar tesorera
Atender solicitud de
divisas
Depreciacin
Apreciacin
Autoridades monetarias
Devaluacin
Revaluacin
Posicin inicial
37
Largo de B y corto de A
Ofrecer un precio comprador A/B mayor que el
de mercado
Ofrecer un precio vendedor A/B menor que el
de mercado
38
EURO$
Euribor
Libor$
39
(0.01554) (0.01655)
(0.1032) (0.02159)
(0.06347) (0.0126)
Density
17.5
r:DEURO/
N(s=0.0218)
Cola gruesa o
mayor
probabilidad de
precios bajos del
dlar
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
40
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
Residuos Euribor
Density
1.50
r:DEURIBOR
N(s=0.302)
Apuntamiento o
mayor
probabilidad de
reversin a la
media
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
-1.25
41
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
Residuos Libor$
Density
2.5
r:DLIBOR
N(s=0.209)
Apuntamiento o
mayor
probabilidad de
reversin a la
media
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-1.0
42
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
EURO$
EURIBOR
0.0161446
0.01506
0.01402
1.15 0.252
EURO/$_1 X
-0.0186539
0.01677
0.01600
-1.17 0.246
alpha_0
0.000014
0.000021 0.000022
0.615 0.540
alpha_1
0.0993280
0.06545
0.06029
1.65
0.102
beta_1
0.881570
0.08778
0.09421
9.36
0.000
Constant
Coefficient Std.Error
0.0130506
0.09566
EURIBOR_1 X -0.00441401
LIBOR$
0.01934
-0.319 0.750
0.02464
-0.179 0.858
alpha_0
alpha_1
0.0647156
0.04251
0.05636
1.15 0.253
beta_1
0.921284
0.04627
0.05554
16.6 0.000
LIBOR$_1 X
43
0.08045
0.0138242 0.03395
0.03172
-1.21 0.231
alpha_0
alpha_1
0.983451
beta_1
H
0.0165488
Mariano Gonzlez Snchez
0.04543
0.04932
0.003
0.336 0.738
(0)
44
EURO$
0.8421
0.019
0.02
0.000
0.099
0.882
EURIBOR
3.25
0.004
0.30
0.00
0.065
0.921
LIBOR$
3.45
0.004
0.21
0.59
0.984
0.017
Correlaciones
EURO$
EURIBOR
LIBOR$
45
EURO$
1.00000
0.30547
0.21329
EURIBOR
0.30547
1.00000
0.76558
LIBOR$
0.21329
0.76558
1.00000
ndice
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
46
MOTIVACIN
47
Cmo se mide?
Surplus Nulo: Los cambios en Net Present Value de los cashflows a recibir se compensa con los de los cash-flows a
entregar.
Cmo se logra?
La composicin de los cash-flows a entregrar y a recibir deben
tener sensibilidades iguales frente a los factores que midan los
movimientos de la curva.
PCA (i)
48
PCA (ii)
La expresin matemtica sera:
Pi ( 0) = exp r0 (t i ) t i
N
S ( 0) = C i Pi ( 0)
i =1
x ( s ) = r ( s ) r0 ( s ) = uk ( s ) hk
49
k =1
PCA (iii)
Entonces la variaciones del Net Present Value de la cartera
puede expresarse tambin en funcin de los mismos factores:
k = 1,..., K
S k = C i Pi ( 0)uk (t i ) t i hk
i =1
k = 1,..., K
k = 1,..., K
50
S k = 0
D =
S
k
N N
C i Pi ( 0)uk (t i ) t i
S ( 0) i =1
PCA (iv)
51
PCA (v)
Formalizacin y significado:
PCA : incorrelacin
Si,t = i + k ,i Fk ,t i = 1,..., N
k =1
= V iDiV T
D = diag [ 1 N ]
K
k =1
= X%
j =1
52
53
Duraciones multidireccionales
PCA:
54
Caso actual:
Duraciones multidireccionales
PCA:
Asset Value
ICA
Surplus ($)
BARBER
and
COOPER
Surplus ($)
ICA
Hedge (%)
BARBER
and
COOPER
Hedge (%)
ICA
Date
Liability Value
FebFeb-91
434,101.83
434,101.65
434,101.59
-0.18
-0.25
MarMar-91
435,314.22
435,213.25
435,140.41
-100.97
-173.81
109.07%
116.71%
AprApr-91
440,563.45
440,440.22
440,441.77
-123.23
-121.68
100.43%
99.02%
MayMay-91
443,416.42
442,987.23
443,417.93
-429.19
1.51
112.01%
95.86%
JunJun-91
442,781.82
442,503.40
442,821.95
-278.42
40.16
131.16%
106.48%
JulJul-91
448,168.42
448,017.38
448,213.90
-151.04
45.48
97.69%
99.90%
AugAug-91
459,570.88
459,467.47
459,476.61
-103.41
-94.27
99.58%
101.24%
SepSep-91
469,742.09
469,833.65
469,586.98
91.56
-155.1
98.12%
100.60%
OctOct-91
476,331.31
476,514.53
476,264.15
183.22
-67.16
98.63%
98.68%
NovNov-91
484,190.28
484,614.98
484,110.14
424.69
-80.15
97.02%
100.17%
DecDec-91
497,504.56
497,733.14
497,184.38
228.57
-320.19
101.50%
101.84%
JanJan-92
491,736.41
492,107.69
491,989.03
371.29
252.62
102.54%
111.03%
FebFeb-92
492,744.07
492,938.52
492,819.97
194.45
75.9
121.28%
121.27%
55
Date
Liability Value
SepSep-07
565,412.00
565,410.00
565,410.00
-2.00
-2.00
OctOct-07
569,529.28
569,549.25
569,549.85
19.97
20.57
99.47%
99.45%
NovNov-07
575,946.55
576,012.48
576,013.56
65.93
67.01
99.29%
99.28%
DecDec-07
576,950.12
577,046.22
577,027.86
96.10
77.74
97.08%
98.94%
JanJan-08
585,448.79
585,410.04
585,413.97
-38.75
-34.82
101.61%
101.34%
FebFeb-08
589,911.12
589,927.77
589,914.66
16.66
3.54
98.77%
99.15%
MarMar-08
591,046.74
590,800.60
590,895.76
-246.14
-150.98
130.11%
115.75%
AprApr-08
588,297.00
588,101.00
588,182.57
-196.00
-114.43
101.86%
101.35%
MayMay-08
588,040.01
587,825.07
587,915.28
-214.94
-124.74
93.13%
96.14%
JunJun-08
589,733.20
589,370.80
589,524.53
-362.40
-208.67
109.54%
105.22%
JulJul-08
591,343.56
591,010.97
591,150.13
-332.59
-193.43
98.18%
99.06%
AugAug-08
592,448.88
592,140.12
592,262.27
-308.76
-186.61
97.89%
99.39%
SepSep-08
594,367.64
594,079.72
594,199.99
-287.93
-167.65
98.93%
99.02%
56
Surplus($)
Surplus($)
ICA
Hedged
(%) PCA
Surplus($)
Surplus($)
PCA
Surplus($)
ICA
Surplus($) PCA
Surplus($)
ICA
mean
23.64
-45.92
-137.76
-78.04
std. Dev.
253.45
148.51
220.07
131.51
max
424.69
252.62
96.10
77.74
min
-429.19
-320.19
-362.40
-208.67
Statistics
57
Sep-07 to Sep-08
ndice
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
58
Casos prcticos
59