Were Winning!

Posted on 25. Jun, 2011 by Nathaniel Patin in Eurasia, Latest

A mere 18 months after President Obama announced that a 30,000-strong surge of troops would be deployed to Afghanistan, Obama delivered another speech last night, this time announcing that by this time next year, 33,000 troops will have been brought home. After the surge-and-then-some has been withdrawn, the drawdown will continue at a steady pace. Its not clear what a steady pace will entail, but it does seem, in virtue of the significant size of the troop reduction, that Obama has committed to a counterterrorism rather than a counterinsurgency approach. The former strategy, advocated by Vice President Biden, would see a much smaller military footprint and an emphasis on covert operations targeting al-Qaeda, while the latter, supported by General Petraeus, includes a large military presence and a clear, hold, and build approach. Petraeus had recommended a much smaller drawdown with 5,000 troops coming home by the end of this year and another 5,000 over the course of the winter. Its interesting to compare yesterdays speech with the one Obama gave in 2009 announcing the administrations new Afghanistan strategy. Obama states as a reason for increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan that most painfully, 2008 was the deadliest year of the war for American forces. Unfortunately, a surge in troops has meant a surge in troop casualties. Last year has the dubious distinction of being the deadliest for U.S. troops, and 2011 is looking like more of the same, as shown by a

graphic created by Brian McGill at NationalJournal.

While Obama did mention the more than 1,500 American lives lost in Afghanistan, he did not remark on the increased levels of violence. Instead, he maintained that we are winning the war in Afghanistan and that the drawdown is coming from a position of strength. Petraeus and others agree, and believe that this is attributable to the surge in troops. According to this position, significantly reducing troops will reverse the gains the coalition forces have made in the past year and a half, allowing the Taliban to retake NATO-held territory.

Those who agree with Obamas decision to start drawing down troops, point to a diminished al-Qaeda threat and domestic problems (e.g., the national debt) that need greater attention (i.e., money). To support his contention that al-Qaeda is on the ropes [1] and its safe to start withdrawing from Afghanistan, Obama stated that, Together with the Pakistanis, we have taken out more than half of al Qaedas leadership. And thanks to our intelligence professionals and Special Forces, we killed Osama bin Laden, the only leader that al Qaeda had ever known. He also cites information seized from bin Ladens compound in Abbottabad. The information that we recovered from bin Ladens compound shows al Qaeda under enormous strain. Bin Laden expressed concern that al Qaeda has been unable to effectively replace senior terrorists that have been killed, and that al Qaeda has failed in its effort to portray America as a nation at war with Islam thereby draining more widespread support. One has to wonder whether the Afghan government can really fend off a seemingly indefatigable Taliban as our troops (and those of France) come home. Coalition forces have been training Afghan troops and police forces for almost ten years, in an attempt to transfer security responsibility to the Afghan government, but questions remain as to how well the Afghan National Security Forces have been trained. Will three more years make a difference? Id venture to say no, and that the outcome will be a bloodier civil war between the Taliban and the U.S.-supported Afghan government, especially if talks with the Taliban dont amount to anything. So the U.S. and the Obama administration is faced with a difficult situation at the very least. The U.S. has been in Afghanistan since 2001 and the American public is war weary. Over 1,500 Americans have died in Afghanistan to date and weve spent a trillion dollars for a war in Central Asia at a time when the economy is a major concern for almost all Americans. But security remains an issue. Will Afghanistan be able to protect itself from the Taliban as the U.S. draws down? Will al-Qaeda central regenerate? Will a counterterrorism approach be more effective in disrupting, dismantling, and defeating al-Qaeda? We shall see. By Nathaniel Patin

Tags: Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, President Barack Obama, Troop Surge