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Weekly FX Commentary Weekly FX Commentary

June 26th 2011 July 2nd 2011

Web: www.eliteglobaltrader.com
Authors: Anthony Rousseau & James Putra

FX Market Flash
Pair Assessment Comment

Event Risk
Monday:

AUDUSD: In a range from 1.0450-1.0650. Med-Term view is short down to 1.0200. Above 1.0775 changes view to the bulls. Currently in a downward channel. Top of channel is 1.0630 and the bottom of the channel lines up with 61.8% retracement at 1.0200 in the next 5 days, a zone of concern prior to 1.0200 is 1.0360. Look to fill short position at 1.0600-1.0630. We may see rally for next few days prior to next Bearish AUDUSD drop down. Recommendation: We are in a range and until it breaks below 1.4050 and closes a daily bar, we need to build position at top of range playing for the downside break. Picturing is forming for a break down and USD strength is also important to consider. Stay short below 1.0700 EURUSD: In economic turmoil creating a large swing range with an unclear medterm direction. Look for the swings to make 100-200 pips . Pair meets support at rising trend line at 1.4150, break of that we have 1.4050 then 1.3975, only a break below 1.3975 will we see a substantial move back to the mid 1.3500. In the EURUSD meantime let's use the levels to our advantage and look to maximize range. Also we need to consider EU turmoil while Dollar gets stronger for a break down. It's important we don't preempt this play until we have economic factors supporting a break of key support. EURJPY: Trading near the monthly lows looks to possible break down and push towards 111.50 this week. As the EURO unravels and breaks down towards a bearish trend and the carry trade outlook looks flat, we favor the shorts on this pair.
EURJPY Bearish

USD: Personal Spending 8:30am

Tuesday:

GBP: Current Account 4:30am GBP: Inflation Report 5am USD: CB Consumer Confidence 5am
Wednesday:

Bearish

CHF: KOE Economic Barometer 5:30am USD: Pending Home Sales 10am NZD: NBNZ Business Confidence 6:45am
Thursday:

Recommendation: Look for a break-out play below 113.50, targets are 112.50 and 111.50. Also look to short on rallies to support levels. Immediate resistance is 114.70 115.00 and 116.00. GBPUSD: With BOE stagnant with economic insight and no rate hike insight. Looking for a rally back up to 1.6100 area, then a flip back down a short down to 1.5885, this is where we see the GBPUSD going before end of month, probably see it consolidate and rally prior to breaking low of 1.5940. Looking to build position around 1.6100. Keep an eye on USD strength for this pair to slide down GBPUSD on. Recommendation: short on the rally at key resistance and look for a break down to the mid 1.5000s within the next 30days. Recommendation: Short on rallies, look for immediate resistance 1.5990 1.6060 1.6100. We look for targets at 1.5880, 1.5800 1.5700 NZDUSD: As USD gains strength we look for a nice recovery to the short side on a reversal from all time high. We look for immediate resistance at .8100 .8136 .8195. NZDUSD We look for targets at .7975 .7900 .7847 .7760 Bearish Recommendation: Look to take short at resistance points.

EUR: German Retail Sales 2am GBP: Nationwide HPI 2am EUR: German Unemployment Change 3:55am USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am JPY: Tankan Manufacturing Index 7:50am
Friday:

Bearish

GBP: Manufacturing PMI 4:30am EUR: Unemployment Rate 5am USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI 10am