Market Insights

Headlines

1 July 2011

Risk continues higher as Greek optimism washes through markets US employment numbers slightly below expectations, but Chicago PMI surprises to the upside AUD, EUR both pause at higher levels Crude, gold both steady overnight Dow gains strongly for fourth day to close 1.2% higher Tonights agenda sees EU employment at 7.00pm and US ISM manufacturing at 12.00am

AUD/USD
Resistance 1.0760/80 Support 1.0600/50 Market Sentiment

Bullish

The Aussies monster move higher has been capped just below resistance at 1.0760/80 and from here there is the expectation in the market that we will see a pullback to support before the next step higher. Support currently seen at 1.0600/50.

XAU/USD
Resistance 1510 Support 1490 Market Sentiment

Bearish Gold continues to trade in the range with support at 1490 and resistance at 1510. Traders are likely to continue to play the range in the near term, but with the strong move lower over the last ten days, the expectation is that a break lower has the potential to see further selling.

EUR/USD
Resistance 1.4530 Support 1.4120 Market Sentiment

Bearish The Euro has found resistance up at 1.4530, which marks the top end of the symmetrical triangle. From here, the market will be looking for a move back to the lower end of the range, back at 1.4130, over the next few days. A clear break of 1.4530 changes the picture to bullish, however.

GBP/USD
Resistance 1.6100 Support 1.5920 Market Sentiment

Bearish The pound has been hit by heavy selling over the last two weeks as expectations of rate rises have been wound back. For the moment, the GBP/USD appears capped at 1.6100, and weve seen the pair pull back from these levels. Support is seen at 1.5920 and a break below this could trigger further selling in the market, with targets back to 1.5850.

USD/JPY
Resistance 81.25 Support 80.30 Market Sentiment

Bullish The USD strength that has characterised the forex markets over the last week-and-a-half has been eroded over the last 48 hours and this is clearly visible on the USD/JPY charts. The pair has become more volatile in recent days and this adds to the uncertainty. For now, however, the market will continue to favour the bulls, with traders likely to buy around 80.30/40 with targets back towards 80.10. A clear break of 81.25 is bullish.

SILVER
Resistance 35.00 Support 33.30 Market Sentiment

Bearish Silvers gains have been capped at 35.00 over the last 48 hours and, with gold also unable to make a clear push higher, the market looks to be bearish on the precious metals space. This sets up another move back to 33.30.

USD/CHF
Resistance 85.50 Support 83.30 Market Sentiment

Bullish The USD/CHF has wrong-footed the market after breaking below support but then bouncing back into the trading range. This false break is a bullish signal and traders are now looking for the pair to move back to the top of the range at 85.50.

GBP/JPY
Resistance 130.00 Support 128.10 Market Sentiment

Bearish The GBP/JPY continues to trade in the short-term trading range with resistance at 130.00 and support at 128.10. Any move back to 130.00 is likely to be seen as sellable while a break below 128.10 will also see the sellers emerge.

AUD/JPY
Resistance 86.50 Support 85.50 Market Sentiment

Bullish The Aussie-yen found resistance at 86.50 and this sets up a move back to re-test support at 85.50. Traders will be looking to take new longs on any move back to support at 85.50. The recent break above the descending triangle is very bullish and traders will be looking to participate in a multi-month move higher.

OIL
Resistance 95.80 Support 94.00/20 Market Sentiment

Rangebound

Oil has traded perfectly over the last 24 hours with support and resistance defining trade in a horizontal band. For now, the market will expect this range to hold, but a break in either direction is also tradable.

Economic Calendar
F/Cast
EUR: Final manufacturing PMI GBP: Manufacturing PMI EUR: Unemployment rate 52.0 52.2 9.9%

Last
52.0 52.1 9.9% USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI USD: Construction Spending USD: Total Vehicle Sales

F/Cast
51.9 0.1% 12.0M

Last
53.5 0.4% 11.8M

Forex Capital Trading Ph 1800 ForexCT

The information contained in this communication is intended for informational purposes only and is not by any means to be considered "research". Forex Capital Trading Ltd and all of its subsidiaries and affiliates (the Company) endeavour to ensure that the information provided in this communication is complete and correct but do not guarantee its accuracy or reliability. Information, data and opinions may change without notice so readers must check any material item(s) with an advisor before making any trading decisions. The Company is not obliged to update you if the information or data changes. The Company does not provide investment advice or make any recommendations to investors or traders. The information and analysis in this communication is derived from a variety of sources and using methods that a reasonable person would deem to be reliable. However, the Company cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis or information. We will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion, statement or omission contained herein. Investors should consult with a certified financial advisor before engaging in any trading activities. AFSL306400