THESIS PROPOSAL TITLE:

The Impact of Civil Society Movement in Middle East towards Malaysia Foreign Policy and Energy Security

NAME: Muhammad Suffian Bin Mohd Yusoff ADDRESS: No. 24, Jln 9/9d, Section 9, 43650 Bandar Baru Bangi, Selangor EMAIL: suffian@andalus.com.my PHONE: +603-89273532 / +6013-2043641

1. Title Of Research
The impact of civil society movement in Middle East towards Malaysia foreign policy and energy security

2. Background Of The Research

The Arab spring which started on the early of this year makes its own impact to the world when the price of oil increase constantly especially after the conflict hit Libya and followed by unrest in several Gulf countries. The civil society movement has started in 1980 after the pan Arab regime fail to provide the need of their society such as in Tunisia, Libya, Iraq, Egypt and Syria. Their people dissatisfaction is now at the peak as thousands of protesters gather at Tahrir Square, Cairo to show their voice towards President Mubarak to step down after thirty years of his administration. The fall of Mubarak regime is also finally backed by Egypt army after Omar Suleiman the Vice President of Egypt announced Mubarak resignation on 11th February. Soon after that, in Libya the protest took place in major city like Ajdabiya, Tripoli and Benghazi. The President Ghaddafi then launch military action towards their citizens and this action lead to the NATO and United Nations criticism. Its now civil war in Libya which causes death of many Libyans whether by NATO airstrikes or Ghaddafi regime military action to the protesters. At the same time some clashes also takes place in Syria and Yemen as the Arab uprising hit the entire region. The Bahrain government also faces the protest from her citizens and it most likely to sectarian driven in this particular country. Several measurement have been taken by Moroccan, Jordanian and Saudi government to prevent such protest by make some reform in constitution and giving some incentives to their people to win their heart.

This is the first time ever after the collapse of Ottoman Empire 1924 where the volatile Middle East region facing political turbulence. As the uprising is not identified as religion driven, most of the political scientist classify it as the as voice of reformation in political system that push for democratic system to takes place on regimes system or monarchy system. For number of decades the volatility in Middle East often caused by the issue of Israel Palestine issue will possibly become as threat to the strategic interest of Israel and United States as their main alliances in the region such as Mubarak, King Abdullah Jordan and King Abdullah Saudi Arabia faces the voice of transformation. The worries about the influence of al-Qaeda in the revolution also become a concern in this uprising. Several actions taken by United States to minimize the region such as announcing the Israel border must follow the before 1967 border and the killing of Osama Bin Laden the alQaeda supreme leader are expected to make such cooling off and gain world attention for a while. The United States also face some difficulty in it diplomatic relation with Pakistan after the mission for Osama killing was

considered as violates the sovereignty of Pakistan when the operation was conducted without the Pakistani authoritys acknowledgement and permission. The world attention now gives highlight to Middle East region as the Flotilla Humanitarian mission being launched this end of June. The mission comprised of many nation especially from Europe and United States. And Greece the host country for the mission faces pressure from Israel as Greece now facing its debt crisis. The U.S.-registered Audacity of Hope released a statement Sunday asking the Greek government to explain why the leased vessel was being prevented from leaving a Greek port. As in 5th of June, one incident happened in Golan Height after Syrian protest towards Israel was conducted to remember the Naqba incident in 1967. The Israeli controlled Golan Height from neighboring Syria witnessed 20 Syrian killed after Israel troops mobilize their troops to prevent a repeat of last month's disturbance when hundreds of people broke through a border fence, entered the Golan Heights and clashed with Israeli forces.

This study will give focus the impact of the civil society movement in Middle East on energy security for Malaysia as on 2013 Malaysia will import gas from other country for electricity generation. The age of cheap oil pass through the increase in demand for energy supply by several emerging new economic power such as India, China and Indonesia. On March 2011, the world witnessed the multiple incidents in Japan where the earthquakes hit the northern part of Japan and followed by the nuclear reactor Fukushima Daichi explosion and leave radiation effect to its surrounding. Soon after that the government of Japan started to shut down their nuclear reactor to prevent such case happen in the future. The world shacked by the Germany government by the resolution to stop their nuclear power plant by 2017. For what have happened in Japan and Germany, it might give impact on other countries policy towards the using of nuclear as their energy resource for electricity generation. This might give sudden increment in oil and gas demand for electricity generation. An OPEC meeting was conducted in Vienna on 8th June ending in disarray after the Saudi recommendation to increase crude oil production was rejected by Iran and Venezuela. "One factor is a diverging market view. Another is politics," said analyst Samuel Ciszuk at IHS global Insight. "At times of heated politics and ideological debate, Saudi struggled to dominate as much as it could have given its size visa-vis others in Opec." (Guardian.co.uk, 2011). While in Malaysia, the government starts to rationalize it subsidies due to higher expenses on energy subsidy. This thesis will give focus on how the Malaysian government should give strategic measurement towards preparing new approaches to minimize the dependence on fossil fuel to sustain the energy supply to the country and the foreign policy of Malaysia to find strategic partner at international level in enhancing the search for the best energy security for long term.

3. Problem Statement / Thesis Statement

The demand for oil increases as the world population constantly growing and at the same time there are emergence of new economic power such as Indonesia, India and China. The impact of speculative activities also gives hikes in oil price. The increasing demand for transportation, industries, construction and electricity generation play significant factor for this issue. And suddenly the Arab spring becomes the next factor for late oil price hikes. These factors supposed give consciousness to us to prepare new initiative to combat uncertainty in energy supply and it stability in this country. As we can see the issues of oil price and electricity rates are quite sensitive issue in this country as the living cost escalates when there is increase in either one.

4. Aims And Objectives Of The Research

I. II. III. IV. To identify the root cause for Middle East unrest and predicting probability of near future To study the uncertainty for Middle East and its impact to Malaysia in energy issue To find the strategic measurement in energy security for Malaysia To prepare the country for any unexpected situations those are related to Middle East political stability V. VI. To define the best energy resource option in Malaysia To find the best strategic partner for Malaysia in energy security concern

5. Research Methodology / Research Design

1. Information Resource: News, Intelligence Report, Journal 2. Approach: Theoretical, Deductive Approach, Top to Bottom Approach, Comparative, Philosophy 3. Ethical And Safety Issues: Speculation, Multilateral Coordination, Political Instability 4. Supporting element: i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. Defining the past, current and future need for energy usage in Malaysia The analysis of Middle East transformation and its impact on oil price The analysis of contributing factor for oil price hikes The analysis of international action and measurement for energy security The analysis of current bilateral relationship with countries in Middle East The risk analysis for unexpected situation in Middle East

vii. viii. ix. x.

The government plan for minimization on fossil fuel dependence for electrify generation The current foreign policy of Malaysia towards Middle East Capital expenditure for energy industry The role and significance of OPEC

5. Media and Organization: a) b) c) d) e) f) g) CNN BBC ALJAZEERA IKRAB MEMRI TIME NEWSWEEK h) i) j) k) l) m) n) FORBES NILETV ALMANAR PRESSTV IQRATV AL-ARABIYA TV EU o) p) q) r) s) t) u) UN NATO HAARETZ BERNAMA REUTERS AFP FOREIGN AFFAIR

6. Expected Significant Contribution To New Knowledge And Applied Value Of Outcome Of Research
I. II. III. IV. V. VI. The strategic approach of sustaining national development within challenging period The improved governing practice due to lesson from Middle East uprising Defining the reliability of oil as premier source for energy supply Dynamism and flexibility of Malaysia Foreign policy in handling energy issues and challenges Strategic long term foreign policy for Malaysia to protect and enhance its strategic interest Reliable instruments for Economic Transformation Program(ETP) and Government Transformation Program (GTP)

7. References
Al-Mustaqbal, Aafaq (2010) The Civil Society Movement in the Arab Gulf States, Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research

Bayat, Asef (2000) Activism and Social Development in the Middle East, United Nations Research Institute for Social Development BBC News, (2011) Egypt Country Profile, BBC United Kingdom BERNAMA, (2011) Middle East Unrest May Dampen Asian Economy BERNAMA, (2011) Muhyiddin: Middle East Unrest Unlikely Here Burney, Aqil (2011) Inductive & Deductive, Research Approach, Department Of Computer Science, University Of Karachi, Pakistan CNN, (2011) Israel Denies Fiscal Pressure on Greece to Block Flotilla Boats, Jerusalem Guardian.Co.Uk, (2011) Oil Price Rises Sharply After OPEC Meeting Collapses in Disarray, London Guardian.Co.Uk, (2011) Tony Blair Issues Arab Spring Warning To West, London Norton, Augustus Richard (1993) The Future Of Civil Society In Middle East, Middle East Journal, Middle East Institute, Washington, United States Stratfor.Com (2011) Special Report: The Egyptian Unrest, STRATFOR, Austin, United States

VOA News, (2011) Israeli Troops Fire at Protesters at Golan Heights Border, Jerusalem