Você está na página 1de 13

Fundamental Analysis for PETRONAS GAS BERHAD

Date of Analysis: Company Name: Stock Code (Bursa): Stock Code (Bloomberg): Stock Code (Reuters): Price as of Analysis: Stock Grade 4-Jun-11 PETRONAS GAS BERHAD PETGAS PTG:MK PGAS.KL 11.54 Dividend Cash Cows Main Y INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS Industrial PE: 39.75 Rolling EPS: 0.73 Board: FBMKLCI: Sector:

Financial Statements: Year over year, Petronas Gas Bhd has been able to grow revenues from 3.2B to 3.5B. Most impressively, the company has been able to reduce the percentage of sales devoted to cost of goods sold from 63.43% to 49.30%. This was a driver that led to a bottom line growth from 940.9M to 1.4B.

1 - History of Consistently Increasing Earnings, Sales & Cash Flow


1.1. Income Statement -> Sales Revenue & Net Income After Tax increasing in the past 4 years. 1.2. Cash Flows -> Net Cash from Operations increasing in the past 4 years. 1.3. Growing/consistent revenue in EPS, revenue and net profit in the last 4 quarters. 1.4. The current quarter's EPS is up more than 15% from the same quarter the year before.

Over consistent (flat or no significant growth)

2 - Sustainable Competitive Advantage


2.1. Strong brand, monopoly or barriers to entry 2.2. Gross Profit Margin (> 40%) & Net Profit Margin (> 10%) high & consistent 2.3. Consistently high ROE > 15%

3 - Strong Future Growth Drivers


3.1. Able to deliver double-digit growth in next 3-5 years 3.2. LT Growth Rate is positive

4 - Conservative Debt
4.1. Long term debt < 4 times Net Profit 4.2. Debt/Equity Ratio < 1 4.3. Current Ratio > 1

5 - Positive Accounting KPI & Ratios


5.1. DUE-D Basic > 70%

5.2. FQA Score > 60% 5.3. SWC Score > 7% p.a.

5.4. ROIC > 15%

6 - Healthy Cash Flow


6.1. Working capital increase slower than sales 6.2. Short & declining "Cash Conversion Cycle" 6.3. Free Cash Flow / Sales > 5%

7 - Management is Holding/Buying Stock


7.1. Is key management holding/buying large proportion of stock.

8 - Risks are Managed


8.1. Understand the risks of the company and how it is managed.

9 - Price is below Intrinsic Value


9.1. Price is below Intrinsic Value (Bonus: Price can double within 3 years)

10 - Stock Price Breaks out of Consolidation/Dip on an Uptrend


10.1. Stock price breaks out of consolidation/dip on an uptrend and above 20 and 50 moving averages on monthly chart.

1 - History of Consistently Increasing Earnings, Sales & Cash Flow


1.1. Income Statement -> Sales Revenue & Net Income After Tax increasing in the past 4 years. RM ('000) TOTAL REVENUES NET INCOME
4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2006 2,839,298 971,038

2007 2,982,347 1,246,979

2008 3,125,745 1,092,949

2009 3,415,141 928,692

2010 3,221,843 940,896

1.053881279 1.580821918

3.161643836
TOTAL REVENUES NET INCOME

1.2. Cash Flows -> Net Cash from Operations increasing in the past 4 years. RM ('000) NET CASH FROM OPERATIONS
2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 NET CASH FROM OPERATIONS

2006 1,590,774

2007 1,740,778

2008 1,584,533

2009 1,420,743

2010 1,537,786

1.3. Growing/consistent revenue in EPS, revenue and net profit in the last 4 quarters.
1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0

872645 802211

868430

892687

891190

Turnover Trend Net Profit Trend

3/1/2010

6/1/2010

9/1/2010

12/1/2010

3/1/2011

EPS Trend
25 20 15 10 5 0 Mar-10 Quarter Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 10.18 19.35 19.66 20.25 13.48

1.4. The current quarter's EPS is up more than 15% from the same quarter the year before. EPS Growth: 32%

2 - Sustainable Competitive Advantage


2.1. Strong brand, monopoly or barriers to entry 1. Does it have a monopoly situation ? 2. Does it have a strong leading brand? 3. Does it have a high barriers to entry? 4. Does it have market leadership? NO Strong High Strong

2.2. Gross Profit Margin (> 40%) & Net Profit Margin (> 10%) high & consistent

Gross Profit: Profit After Tax: Gross Profit Margin: 55%

1,787,200 940,896

Sales Revenue: Minority Interest: Net Profit Margin: 29%

3,221,843 1,131

2.3. Consistently high ROE > 15%

ROE
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

3 - Strong Future Growth Drivers


3.1. Able to deliver double-digit growth in next 3-5 years Summary of analyst reports on company and industry projections: 0

Summary of CEO message on future prospects:

3.2. LT Growth Rate is positive LT Growth Rate: -0.85

4 - Conservative Debt
4.1. Long term debt < 4 times Net Profit Long Term Debt: Long Term Debt < 4 times Current Net Earnings (After Tax): 4.2. Debt/Equity Ratio < 1 0.45 423,600

Debt/Equity Ratio:

0.23

4.3. Current Ratio > 1 Current Ratio (MRQ): 11.72

5 - Positive Accounting KPI & Ratios


5.1. DUE-D Basic > 70% DUE-D Basic: 5.2. FQA Score > 60% FQA Score: 5.3. SWC Score > 7% p.a. SWC Score: 5.4. ROIC > 15% 1.96% 98% 100%

EBIT (1-Tax rate%) Total Equity Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Cash & Equiv ROIC
21.50% 21.00% 20.50% 20.00% 19.50% 19.00% 18.50% 18.00% 17.50% 17.00% 16.50% 16.00% 2007

2007 1,305,605 7,922,400 0 454,100 1,073,384 17.88%

2008 1,410,477 8,038,300 3,100 449,600 1,707,805 20.79%

2009 1,251,509 8,017,000 9,300 437,700 2,015,999 19.41%

2010 1,264,245 8,515,200 0 423,600 2,281,754 18.99%

ROIC

2008

2009

2010

6 - Healthy Cash Flow


6.1. Working capital increase slower than sales 2007 2,982,347 149,600 376,711 151,767 374,544 18.31 46.10 18.57 45.84 2008 3,125,745 5% 146,400 237,800 146,975 237,225 -36.66% 17.10 1.05 17.16 0.99 2009 3,415,141 9% 144,000 319,810 195,262 268,548 13.20% 15.39 1.58 20.87 -3.90 2010 3,221,843 -6% 100,400 322,228 202,230 220,398 -17.93% 11.37 3.16 22.91 -8.37

Sales Revenue Sales Growth YOY Inventory Accounts Receivable Accounts Payable Working Capital Working Capital Growth YOY Inventory Days Days Receivable Days Payable Cash Conversion Cycle
20% 10% 0% 2007 -10%

2008

2009

Sales Growth YOY Working Capital Growth YOY

-20% -30% -40%

6.2. Short & declining "Cash Conversion Cycle"


50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 Cash Conversion Cycle 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 2007 2008 2009 2010

6.3. Free Cash Flow / Sales > 5% Free Cash Flow/Sales: 37.64%

7 - Management is Holding/Buying Stock


7.1. Is key management holding/buying large proportion of stock. Shareholding Analysis: CARTABAN NOM-PETROLIAM NASIONAL BHD and EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD are the major shareholder.

8 - Risks are Managed


8.1. Understand the risks of the company and how it is managed. Risk Management: 0

9 - Price is below Intrinsic Value


9.1. Price is below Intrinsic Value (Bonus: Price can double within 3 years) Valuation Method Discounted Cash Flow Dividend Discounted Growth Rate 3Y - -6.4 5Y - -0.85 6.77 5.95 6.91/3 21.62 PE PE Model PEG Estimated IV: Discount from IV: From From 25.1 18.32 0.63 19.74 14.41 0.80 10 To -15.4% To 14.2 Sector Avg. PE 10.37 29.02 1.11 0.40 14 17.6% 6.91/2 15.29 Remark

Discount from IV is not more than 20% Based on PEG, it is currently slightly undervalued.

10 - Stock Price Breaks out of Consolidation/Dip on an Uptrend

10.1. Stock price breaks out of consolidation/dip on an uptrend and above 20 and 50 moving averages on monthly char

Você também pode gostar