GLOBAL PRODUCTION,

CONSUMPTION AND
INTERNATIONAL MARKET OF
POULTRY MEAT AND EGGS
Dr PIET SIMONS
Past President
World’s Poultry Science Association (WPSA)
PO Box 31
7360 AA Beekbergen
The Netherlands
Poultry Seminar, Lonovala, India
12 September 2009
n Global poultry meat
n Global egg production
n Main poultry meat and egg producers
(various countries)
n Poultry meat and egg consumption
n Cost--price poultry meat and eggs in
Cost
various countries
n Global poultry market
u Driving forces

u Barriers
n World trade poultry products
n New poultry products in the future
Global poultry meat market
86.8 Million tonnes

n Chicken: 85.6%
n Turkey: 6.8%
n Duck: 4.6%
n Goose and guinea fowl: 2.6%

Source: FAO 2007

World poultry meat production 2007

100
90
80
X Million tonnes

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Poultry Chicken Turkey Duck Goose and
guinea fowl

Source: FAO
World poultry meat production
90

80
70

60
X Million MT

50

40
30
20
10

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year

Source: FAO
The changing contribution of the continents to global
poultry meat production (data in %, source FAO)

Continent 1970 1990 2007

Africa 4.0 5.0 4.2
Asia 17.9 24.2 36.0
Europe 28.1 20.6 15.5
USSR 7.1 8.0 -
N and C America 36.2 31.3 27.5
S America 5.8 9.5 15.6
Oceania 0.9 1.2 1.2
World 100.0 100.0 100.0
Poultry meat production in the
various continents over the years
30000000

25000000

1996
20000000 1997
1998
1999
2000
15000000 2001
2002
2003
2004
10000000 2005
2006

5000000

0
AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA* NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
 Leading countries in poultry
meat production
1970 2007

Country Production Share Country Production Share

(000 tonnes (%) (000 tonnes) (%)

USA 4,645 30.8 USA 19,481 22.4

USSR 1,071 7.1 China 16,034 18.5

China 971 6.4 EU 25 10,392 12.0

France 637 4.2 Brazil 8,908 10.3

World 15,101 100 World 86,800 100

Source: FAO
Development of poultry meat production
in developed and developing countries
(million tonnes, source FAO)
Year World Developed Developing Share (%) of
countries countries developing
countries
1970 15 11 4 26
1975 19 13 5 28
1980 26 18 8 31
1985 31 21 10 33
1990 41 26 15 37
1995 55 28 26 48
2000 69 33 36 53
2005 81 37 44 55
Increase (%) 437 227 1,043 -
Development of global meat production
(data in million ton, source FAO)
Year Beef Pigmeat Poultry
and veal meat
1970 38 36 15
1975 44 41 19
1980 46 53 26
1985 49 60 31
1990 53 70 41
1995 54 80 55
2000 57 90 69
2007 65 115 87
Increase (%) 71 219 480
Further in 2007
n Turkeys 5.9 million tonnes
u North America 3.4
u Europe 1.7
n Ducks 4.0 million tonnes
u Asia 3.3
u China 2.75
n Goose and
guinea fowl 2.6 million tonnes
u Asia 2.4
u China 2.3
Chicken meat consumption 2008
Country Kg/person/year
USA 46.1
Brazil 38.8
Argentina 30.7
Russia 19
EU 27 16.3
Japan 15
China 8.7
India 2.1
Rwanda 0.2

Source 2005: Executive guide WATT (2008/2009)

Source 2008: FAPRI
 kg/person/year

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
U
SA

Br
az
il

Ar
ge
nt
in
a

M
au
r iti
us

Source: FAPRI (forecast)

R
us
si
a

EU
(2
7)

Ja
pa
n

C
hi
na

In
di
a

R
w
an
da
Chicken meat consumption 2008
Production cost at farm level in
2007, outside EU (€/kg LW)
90

75,9
80
66,2
70

60
cent per kg live weight

51,7 51,1
50

40

30

20

10

NL US TH BR
-10

chick feed energy other labour housing general manure

P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands

World poultry meat consumption
16

14

12
kg/person/year

10

0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
World poultry production
Growth forecast
Poultry meat
Year (Million tonnes)
1995 56

2000 74

2015 110

2030 140
Total cost farm + processing in
2007 (€/kg carcass weight)
160

140

120
cent per kg carcass weight

100

80

60

40

20

0
NL G FR UK PL US TH BR

primary Slaughter

P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands

Poultry meat: international trade
in meat cuts
Wings:
China

Legs:
Russia
Breastmeat:
Europe
Deboned
legmeat :
Japan Walking feet:
China
Brazil: number 1 exporter in
broilermeat

Source: Nutreco/Gira
Advantages in Brazil
(also in Argentina?)
n Good climate: low cost housing
n Low cost of labour
n Inland feed ingredients (corn, soybeans)

Combined with:
n Integrated production (contract)
n Big companies with good management
n Modern equipment
n Innovative and marketdriven

n Low level of governmental regulations e.g. use of

MBM and growth promotors
Future
In EU extra rules for animal welfare,
environment and food safety:
n Regulations in EU:
u Ban of meat and bone meal

u Ban on growth promoters (jan

(jan 2006)
n Future Regulations:
u Lower stocking density (33 or 39 or 42 kg per
m2, in 2010)
u Reduction of salmonella (2011)

u Reduction ammonia emission (2010)

World table egg production

70

60

50
X Million tonnes

40

30

20

10

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2008 (exp)
Year

FAO Database
Egg production in the various
continents over the years
40000000

35000000

30000000
1996
1997
25000000 1998
1999
2000
20000000 2001
2002
2003
15000000 2004
2005
2006
10000000

5000000

0
AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA* NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
Growth egg production
between 1960 and 2007
Fast in Asia (now 38 million tonnes = 60.7%)
China (now 25.8 million tonnes = 41.3%;
1.2 million tonnes in 1961)

Medium slow in Africa (2.3 million tonnes)

South America (3.4 million tonnes)
But continuous upwards
Slow in Europe
Oceania

FAO Database, own calculations

The five leading countries in hen
egg production
1970 2007
Country Production Share Country Production Share
(000 tonnes) (%) (000 tonnes) (%)
USA 4,053 20.7 China 25,846 41.3
USSR 2,248 11.5 USA 5,308 8.5
Japan 1,766 9.0 India 2,670 4.3
China 1,533 7.8 Japan 2,525 4.0
Germany 1,162 5.9 Russia 2,093 3.3
World 19,540 100.0 World 62,572 100.0

Source: FAO
 Development of hen egg production in developed
and developing countries (000 tonnes, source FAO)

Year World Developed Developing Share (%) of

countries countries developing
countries
1970 20 15 5 24
1975 22 16 6 27
1980 26 18 8 32
1985 31 19 12 39
1990 35 19 16 46
1995 43 17 25 59
2000 51 18 33 64
2005 59 19 40 68
Increase (%) 195 29 758 -
World egg consumption
10

7
kg/person/year

0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

8.0 kg eggs ˜ 130 eggs

Source: FAO
Egg consumption 2006
in selected countries
400
350
numbers of eggs/person

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
A

a
a
a

il
n

NL

DR
a

sh
ia

az
US

di
in

by
pa
in

ss

In

de
nt
Ch

Br
Li
Ja

o
Ru

ge

ng
la
ng
Ar

Co
Ba
Source: International Egg Commission, annual review
Production cost eggs 2006 outside EU,
farm level (€ct/kg)
80

70 manure

electricity
60

general
50
housing
cent per kg

40 labour

32,2 other
30
27,7
feed
24,9
20
pullet

10
14,5
9,7 11,1

0
NL US BR

-10

P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands

Production cost Eggs in 2003 outside
EU, Farm level (Ect/kg)
80

70

60

50
general
cent per kg

40 housing
labour
38
37 other
30 feed
29 hen
34 25 28
20

10 16 15
12 10 9
6
-

10-
EU PL UKR USA BR INDIA

P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands

Production cost eggs 2006 with China, farm
level (€ct/kg)
80,0
manure

70,0
electricity

60,0 general

50,0 housing
Euro cent per kg

40,0 labour

32,2 other
30,0
27,7 36,8
24,9 feed
20,0
pullet
10,0
14,5
9,7 11,1
7,2
0,0
NL US BR CH
-10,0

Source: P. van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands

Main trade flows in hen eggs

Main trade flow (> 100.000 ton):

Netherlandsà Germany
Malaysia à Singapore
Minor trade flows
Poland à Germany
USA à Hongkong
India à UAE

Source: ISPA
Layer farming outside EU (e.g. Brazil, India)

n Open housing
n Cages
n Low cost feed, housing, labour
Production cost outside EU
a) Circumstances
Low cost of inland feed-ingredients
Low cost of labour

b) Regulations:
- Space allowance: 300 – 400 cm2 per hen
(optimum)
- No regulations on debeaking / beaktrimming
- Use of meat and bonemeal (MBM)
EU Housing systems in 2012
 More space, higher production
cost ….
140
122
120 114
100 104
100

80
%

60

40

20

0
Cage 450cm2 Cage 550 cm2 Enriched cage Aviary

P. van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands (2007)

Towards 2012 in EU

1. EU Directive welfare for laying hens

2003: Space allowance 550 cm2 per hen
2012: Enriched cages with 750 cm2, laying
nest, perch, litter

2. Beaktrimming before 10 days (ban in NL, G)

3. Salmonella control
3. Reduction on ammonia emission (IPPC etc)
Cost increase EU 2006 -2012
(euro/kg eggs)
12

10

8
eurocent per kg eggs

0
NL G FR ES PL

housing beaktrimming ammonia salmonella

P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands

Expected Regional distribution of
the additional egg demand in 2015
Figure 3:
Regional distribution of the additional egg demand
in 2015
Source: Own calculations

Asia

Africa

Latin America
and Caribbean
North America

Europe

Oceania

Total: 12 million t

Source: Windhorst, WPSJ 64/3, 2008

Global poultry market
Driving forces
n Population growth and demographics
n Economic prosperity
n Relative cost/price advantage
n Health and nutrition
n Consumer friendly products
n Fast
Fast--food chains
Driving livestock revolution
n China 1.3 billion
n India 1.1 billion
n Africa 1.0 billion

n 2007 (India):
Chicken meat consumption 1.9 kg/year
kg/year
n 2009 (Africa
(Africa,, estimated
estimated))
Egg consumption 43 eggs
eggs//year
per cap
Global poultry market
Barriers
n Trade barriers (high tarifs feedstuffs)
n Domestic monopolies
n Bilatereal agreements
n Standards (sanitation, hygiene, disease,
environment, GMO, residues, animal
welfare, increase price feedstuffs,
money crisis, etc.).
Diseases
n Avian Influenza (HPAI)
especially danger H5N1
Money Crisis
n Crisis management
n Education
n Innovation
n Quality
n Branding
Food safety
n Food safety – most important issue
“Safety is the most important ingredient
in our food. Europe must have the
capacity to ensure that we can deliver
this to our customers”.

EU Commissioner for Food and Public Health

“However major limitations on the
expansion [of the poultry industry]
will be feed”. T. Gillin, FAO 2001

According to Rabo 2008

International in 2012, 67 million kg
extra needed to satisfy just meat
demand
Development feed price in NL
(LEI, euro/100 kg)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
03

04

05

06

07

08

09
n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-
ja

ja

ja

ja

ja

ja

ja
vlees leg

2007 2008 2009-1kw

Broilerfeed 30,8 36,5 33,3
Layer feed 23,5 28,1 23,6
Source: P.L.M. van Horne
Consumption of gasoline and diesel compared
to bioethanol and biodiesel production 2005
 Production bioethanol and biodiesel
Production 2005 < 2% of total use for transport
USA 44% (maize, soybean, sunflower)
Brazil 41% (sugercane, soybean)
EU 13% (rapeseed, sugarbeet)
S.E. Asia 2% (palm oil)

Ethanol 90%
Biodiesel 10%

Expected in 2035: 10x production 2005

This is <10% of total demand for transport
Perentage of agricultural land needed to
replace 10% of transport fuel with biofuel
Genetically modified foods
n Reduce grain wastage by over 40%
(less disease, weeds etc.)
n Will we consume GM foods?
n Will we eat products from animals fed
GM feeds?
Animal welfare
n An issue that is gaining more and more
interest
n Battery cages to be banned by 2012 in
EU
n Alternatives: enriched, aviary, deep
litter, free range, organic, grass
n Also issue in Australia, USA etc.
Environmental concerns
n Manure disposal (N, P)
n Antibiotics EU (banned per January
2006) 10 000 million tonnes/year
50% in livestock
> 50% passed out (2500 million
tonnes)
n Noise and smell
n Global warming potential (GWP)
Poultry manure burning plant. May
2008 (18 €/ton)
Global warming potential factors for major
gases using the IPPC (2001) climate change
values
Substance GWP 100 years; kg
CO2-equivalent
CO2 1

CH4 23

N 2O 296

N2O-N 465

Defra project report ISO205, 2006

Main burdens of animal products per
functional unit produced (1000 kg
meat, 20,000 eggs or 10,000 kg milk)
GWP 100, kg 100 year CO2 equiv.
Sheep meat 17400
Beef 15800
Milk 10600
Pig meat 6350
Eggs 5540
Poultry meat 4580

Eggs organic 7000

cage 5250

Poultry meat organic 6680

non organic 4570
Defra project report ISO205, 2006
World poultry production
Future challenges
n Continued sophistication of the industry
n Shifting from “production” to “value-
“value-adding”
and marketing
n Meeting consumer preferences/tastes
n Competition for consumer expenditure for other
goods and services
n Innovation should meet health, ethics and
environment
n Science based development
Future (in practice)
n Poultry meat
u More further processed products

n Eggs
u In medical science (purification proteins)

u To deliver antibodies to prevent disease

u Functional food (enriched eggs)

u Home replacement meals

Synopsis
n Poultry meat and egg production and
consumption are continuously increasing and
have a broad acceptability
n Nutrition value of poultry products is high
n Food security and safety must be assured
n Free market and trade are important
n Poultry diseases, environment, energy,
product quality and animal welfare need
attention
Thanks for your attention

Piet.Simons@wur.nl