BUSINESS DECISION MAKING

HIGH NATIONAL DIPLOMA IN BUSINESS STUDIES Prepared By : D.D.C.Manori Wijerathna (104930,)

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Acknowledgment First and foremost I offer my sincerest gratitude to my lecture and supervisor, Ms Tamra as her encouragement, guidance and support throughout the whole assignment enabled me to develop an understanding of the subject and with her patience and knowledge I was allowed to work in my own way. And also Mr Ibrahim lectured more general scenarios which directed me to present the assignment precisely. Lastly, I offer my regards and blessings to my parents who encouraged me through online, and friends who supported me in any respect during the completion of the assignment

Table of contents Executive summary....................................................................................................................4 Company background................................................................................................................5 Introduction ...............................................................................................................................7 Chapter 1: Data collection and decision making......................................................................11 Chapter 2: Project management and Decision making............................................................29 Chapter 3: Financial decision making......................................................................................38 Chapter 4: Data presentation and interpretation for Decision making.....................................51 Conclusion and Recommendation............................................................................................67 References................................................................................................................................68 Appendix 1: The respondents profile.......................................................................................71 Appendix 2: Project planning...................................................................................................72 Appendix 3: Presentation.........................................................................................................75

Executive summary This report highlights the importance of finding, collecting, using, and analysing data, information, facts and figures correctly, so that an organisations/ governments/ firms/sports teams/ rock bands/ businesses etc, can make effective and efficient decisions. The author also has discussed the necessity of business decision making is that business decision making will affect competitive advantage. Poor decision making results in higher costs, less profit, reduced brand strength, lack of understanding of internal/external factors which affect the firm, and an inability to effectively and efficiently plan for the future. There are many different reasons why they need to use data effectively. The aim of this report is to develop techniques for data gathering and storage, an understanding of the tools available to create and present useful information, in order to make business decisions. Because in business, good decision making requires the effective use of information. And this report also examines a variety of sources and develops techniques in relation to four aspects of information: data gathering, data storage, and the tools available to create and present useful information. Information and communication technology is used in st. Patricks college to carry out much of this work and an appreciation and use of appropriate ICT software is central to completion of this report. Specifically, the author used spreadsheets and other software for data analysis and the preparation of information. The use of spreadsheets to manipulate of numbers, and understanding how to apply the results, are seen as more important than the mathematical derivation of formulae used. Finally the author was able to gain an appreciation of information systems currently used at all levels in an organisation as aids to decision making.

Company Background St. Patrick's was established in 1803 as St. Patrick's School in oxford circus which is entirely British government accredited and is a category A Licensed Sponsor with the UK Border Agency. The College is an endorsed Edexcel centre for assessment and teaching. It has all the facilities that students need for an effective and pleasant learning experience, which leads to the success of their education. Students from over 50 countries including the Far East and South Asia, Africa, the Caribbean, Latin America, and from the UK and other European countries, take advantage from the high quality tuition offered by the College. Figure 1: Partnership of St Patricks, www.st.patricks.co.uk

A Collaborative Partner of the University of Portsmouth

An Accredited Tutor Support Centre for the University of Sunderland A partner of the British Councils EducationUK

According to figure 1, St Patricks has built up strong collaborations and partnerships with other universities to offer a variety of courses at different levels in Accounting, Business Management, Technology, Healthcare Management, Hospitality Management, and Law. And also, figure 2 clearly demonstrates the organizational structure of St Patricks which allows coordinating the diverse subjects effectively along with its mission which is to deliver world class education with particular regard to their application in industry, commerce and healthcare. The college foster multidisciplinary working internally and collaborate widely externally. Figure 2: Organization structure of St: Patricks, Field work

Accordingly, St Patrick's provides high quality education in a caring and friendly environment where Students can study at the College for: The External LLB from the University of London and the BSc (hons) International Tourism and Hospitality Management from the University of Sunderland The BSc (Hons) in Computing and Information Systems from the University of Portsmouth The BA (Hons) in Business Management from the University of Sunderland and the MBA from the University of Sunderland.

Introduction Decision-making is a crucial for any organization in the world. The management can be trained to make better decisions where they must need a supportive environment and should receive proper support from their colleague and superiors. Accordingly decision-making increasingly happens at all levels of a business (Refer figure 3). Figure 3: Levels of decision making, Field work

According to figure 3 the Board of Directors may make the grand strategic decisions about investment and direction of future growth, and managers may make the more tactical decisions about how their own department may contribute most effectively to the overall business objectives. But quite ordinary employees are increasingly expected to make decisions about the conduct of their own tasks, responses to students and improvements to business practice. This needs careful recruitment and selection, good training, and enlightened management.

Subsequently the author has examined that there are many types of business decisions in any organization which clearly shown in figure 4. Figure 4: Types of business decision making, Doyle, Kaner, Lind and Toldi 2007 1. Programmed Decisions These are standard decisions which always follow the same routine. As such, they can be written down into a series of fixed steps which anyone can follow. They could even be written as computer program 2. Non-Programmed Decisions. These are non-standard and non-routine. Each decision is not quite the same as any previous decision. 3. Strategic Decisions. These affect the long-term direction of the business eg whether to take over Company A or Company B 4. Tactical Decisions. These are medium-term decisions about how to implement strategy eg what kind of marketing to have, or how many extra staff to recruit 5. Operational Decisions. These are short-term decisions (also called administrative decisions) about how to implement the tactics e.g. which firm to use to make deliveries.

For an example, St Patricks college which is a world leader in education private sector always makes tactical decisions in order to compete with its competitors. So, figure 5 clearly illustrates how the decision making process of St Patricks college assists to maintain its position in the education industry successfully.

Figure 5: Decision making process of St .Patricks, Davis (1974)

The model in Figure 5 above is a normative model which illustrates how a good decision ought to be made. Beside there are other decisions making models too. Such as Linear programming model which helps to explore maximising or minimising constraints, Spreadsheets which are widely used to hold all the known information about, such as pricing and the effects of pricing on profits. The different pricing assumptions can be fed into the spreadsheet modelling different pricing strategies. This is a lot quicker and cheaper than actually changing prices to see what happens. However the computer does not take decisions where managers should do. But it helps managers to have quick and reliable quantitative information about the business as it is and the business as it might be in different sets of circumstances. There is, however, a lot of research into expert systems which aim to replicate the way management of St.patricks take decisions. And the management of St Patricks college also concerns about the constraints on decision-Making as this may can generate in efficiency in college system (Refer figure 6).

Figure 6: Constrains on business decision making, Robert A. Stine and Dean Foster

Internal constraints existing business policy

External constraints National & EU legislation

availability of finance

competitors behaviour

abilities and feelings

According to figure 6 constraints on Decision-Making are mainly divided into internal and external. Internal constrains are constraints that come from within the college itself, such as availability of finance where certain decisions will be rejected because they cost too much, existing business policy which is not always practical to re-write business policy to accommodate one decision and concern of studentss abilities and feelings .External constraints are constraints that come from the outside the college. Such as, National & EU legislation, competitors behaviour, etc. Moreover by considering the factors explained above, the author has attempted to highlight in further chapters that how college can deal with different scenarios to make decisions effectively. This is well explained in chapter 1 via data collection and this links to other chapters emphasizing the importance of planning.

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Chapter 1: Data collection and decision making 1.1 Introduction According to Taylor & Tillett (2004), information is data that has been processed into a form that is significant to the receiver and is of perceived value in prospective decisions. Every organization requires information as the basis for analysis. These required sources of can be categorised as either primary or secondary data. For a better understanding, author presents an overview of primary and secondary data diagram in figure 7. Figure 7: Data sources, Field work

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1.2 Secondary data Secondary data are existing data generated for a problem other than one at hand. Secondary data consists of information that already exists somewhere, having been collected for another purpose. Secondary data can usually be obtained more quickly and at a lower cost than primary data. Also, secondary sources sometimes can provide data and Individual Company cannot collect on its own, information that either is not directly available or would be too expensive to collect. (Tylor,S.,(2007) For an example, If St. Patricks college attempts to evaluate student satisfaction on organization of programmes and assessments, secondary research will be required to fabricate upon previous records and information. It utilizes the wealth of data held in libraries and in the government departments which assist to make decisions effectively and efficiently. This can be divided into two sections as internal and external sources. (Refer figure 8) Figure 8: sources of secondary data, Field work Internal Database Marketing The creation of large computerized files of students profiles and marketing strategies, and it is the fastest-growing use of internal database technology. Website : www.st.patricks.co.uk External Government publications Trade Associations - Newsletters, special reports, annual reports, etc.

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1.2.1 Benefits and limitations of secondary data Secondary data can also present problems. The needed information may not exist; researchers can rarely obtain all the data they need from secondary sources. Even when data can be found, they might not be very usable. The researcher must evaluate secondary information carefully to make certain it is relevant, accurate, current and impartial. Secondary data can provide a good starting point for research and often can help to define problems and research objectives. In most cases, however the company must also collect primary data. According to figure 8 internal sources of St.patricks college, can be covered the subjects in variety. Such as to figure out the companys output by evaluating the sales costs, advertising and other promotional expenses are marketing costs to be set against sales revenue. Whether or not the functioning records are kept in such a way that they can be used to distribute marketing costs to specific branded products ( different courses), and assist to monitor marketing performance, specifies whether the St.patricks college is truly focus on the market. Despite this, limitations can be occurred, if St.patricks college does not have a broad student database. And college can not engage in making observations and developing concept. And
because of this its own sales figures will not tell, how college need to increase the prospective

students in the future. The advantage of this method include time saving, provide a larger data base comparing to primary data. Therefore the most productive source can be used for St.patricks college is the government statistics which are gathered for the purpose of government, but college can utilize them to meet college requirements.

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1.3 Primary data Primary data are the first hand information collected, compiled and published by organization for some purpose. They are most original data in character and have not undergone any sort of statistical treatment. When research is carried out to discover novel data, it is called primary research. To do this, an inventive research plan must be developed which will include, data collection, data input and then the production and analysis of the consequent results. Despite, the research is at first hand, the results gathered will be more relevant to the needs of the client organization. Primary data can be collected via personal investigation in which the researcher conducts the survey him/herself and collects data from it. The data collected in this way is usually accurate and reliable. This method of collecting data is only applicable in case of small research projects and through investigation, trained investigators are employed to collect the data. These investigators contact the individuals and fill in questionnaire after asking the required information. Most of the organizations implied this method. Beside collection through Questionnaire is quick but gives only rough estimate and through telephone also, researchers can get information as this method is quick and give accurate information.

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1.3.1 Advantages and dis advantages of primary data. Primary data is more credible, which strengthens any argument researchers may be using their research to effect. This highlights that every primary data has its own advantages and disadvantages. (Refer figure 9) Figure 9: Advantages and disadvantages of primary data, Field work Advantages Disadvantages

1. It can be collected from a number of It has design problems like how to design the ways like interviews, telephone surveys. The questions must be simple to design a general lingo (understandable).

surveys, focus groups etc.

2. It can be also collected across the Some respondents do not give timely national borders through emails and responses. Sometimes, the respondents may posts. give fake, socially acceptable and sweet

3. It can include a large population and answers and try to cover up the realities. In wide geographical coverage. some primary data collection methods there

Fourthly, it is relatively cheap and no is no control over the data collection. prior arrangements are required. Incomplete questionnaire always give a

4. Primary data is current and it can negative impact on research. better give a realistic view to the researcher about the topic under consideration.

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1.3.2 Limitations of primary data Because of lengthy duration of the primary research it can often be expensive to perform. Time needs to be consumed properly. As primary data collection needs the growth and implementation of a research plan. Going from the beginning to undertake a research to have the end results is often much longer than the time it takes to obtain secondary data. Primary data is not always feasible. Because some information that could show quite valuable, but not within the reach of a researcher. (Tylor,S.,(2007)

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1.4 Application of the scenario of St Patricks college 1.4.1 Rationale of the questionnaire As a mechanism for obtaining information and opinion, questionnaires is based on primary data that have a number of advantages and disadvantages when compared with other evaluation tools (Refer figure 11). In general, questionnaires are effective mechanisms for efficient collection of certain kinds of information. Figure 11: Advantages and disadvantages of questionnaire, Field work
Advantages

Disadvantages

Cost: It is possible to provide questionnaires to large numbers of students simultaneously. Uniformity: Each respondent receives the identical set of questions. With closed-form questions, responses are standardised, which can assist in interpreting from large numbers of respondents. Can address a large number of issues and questions of concern in a relatively efficient way, with the possibility of a high response rate. Often, questionnaires are designed so that answers to questions are scored and scores summed to obtain an overall measure of the attitudes and opinions of the respondent. They may be mailed to respondents (although this approach may lower the response rate). They permit anonymity. It is usually argued that anonymity increases the rate of response and may increase the likelihood that responses reflect genuinely held opinions.

It may be difficult to obtain a good response rate. Often there is no strong motivation for respondents to respond. They are complex instruments and, if badly designed, can be misleading. They are an unsuitable method of evaluation if probing is required there is usually no real possibility for follow-up on answers. Quality of data is probably not as high as with alternative methods of data collection, such as personal interviewing.

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1.4.2 Design a questionnaire A well designed questionnaire motivates the respondent to provide complete and accurate information. Questionnaire research design continues in a logical and specific way. Each item in the flow chart depends upon the winning completion of all the preceding items. Consequently, it is vital not to miss out a single stage. As part of St Patricks colleges product Strategy, the questionnaire was designed to undertake a pilot survey of students views of the quality of their studying experience in order to identify areas for enhancement. To facilitate this process a Student Satisfaction Survey Steering Group was established between the St Patricks college and the Students Union. As explained in 1.3, this questionnaire has allowed collecting primary data regarding student satisfaction on organization of programmes and assessments at St Patricks College. Figure 10: Questionnaire research flow chart, Simons, R. (1990),

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Questionnaire Dear students, this student satisfaction questionnaire is designed to provide an opportunity for you to comment on your experience on lecture material and organized programmes including assignmnets of St.patricks collge Section A: General information about you

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Section B: Programme organization and assignments please rate the extent to which you are satisfied with the following aspects of your progrmmes/ courses and assignments and the rate how important they are o your experience as a student(if applicable)

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Section c: Your evaluation Please write below an estimate of your satisfaction with the following aspects of college education. Do you think your lectures provide you enough materials to do your assignments?
Yes No (If, no comments.....................................................................................................................) why?

Can rate your overall satisfaction on doing assignments and scheduled courses/programmes over 75%? Yes No

(If, no comments.....................................................................................................................)

why?

Thank you for taking time to complete this questionnaire

Figure 11: Questionnaire on student satisfaction at college, field work

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1.4.3 Aims and objectives of questionnaire The overarching objectives of the survey are, To develop a St Patricks college-wide student satisfaction survey, To agree a methodology for the data analysis, To inform an effective strategy for the implementation of the findings. Beside the overall aim of this work is to investigate student opinion on the experience of dong assignments and organization of programmes at t St Patricks college. 1.4.4 Methodology An initial pilot student satisfaction survey was carried out to assess the reliability and validity of this questionnaire. The development of the student satisfaction survey from studentgenerated questions refined with input from administration department, marketing department and from student union. This is a postal questionnaire was sent to all students who are in 2nd year of college 2011. The questionnaire adopted the research methodology that was initially developed by author. A series of questions was presented using a 7-point satisfaction rating alongside a 7-point importance rating. This allowed for analyses of strengths and areas for improvement,

identifying clear priority action targets for consideration. The questionnaire also included a number of open questions that invited students to comment on any aspect of each particular section. This information was analysed qualitatively and provides some contextual

information to accompany the ratings and in some cases also identifies suggestions for improvement and possible solutions to problems. As such, the questionnaire was designed to encourage respondents to consider responses so that any criticisms they had could be constructive rather than simply negative responses. (Zapper,C,J.,(2006)

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1.4.5 Sampling Sampling is the act, process, or technique of selecting information from a portion of the population by taking a sample of elements from the larger group and on the basis of the information gathered from the subset, to infer something about the larger group. This can be classified in to two broad categories of probability and non probability samples as shown in figure 12. Figure 12: classification of sampling, Pinson,L., (2002)

Sample Designs

Non probability Sampling a. Convenience sampling b.Judgement or purposive sampling c.Quota sampling. d.Snowball sampling

probability Sampling a. simple random sampling b. systematic sampling. c. stratified sampling. d. cluster sampling

1.4.5.1 Sample size determination Determining sample size includes both managerial and financial considerations. The sample evaluates a certain population limitation. The sample size selected for St.patricks college will be 10% of the population of all undergraduate students who are in second year 2011. But usually the larger the sample size, the less is the sampling error. The costs of larger samples are likely to increase on a linear basis not so far sampling error. There are two major ways to determine sample size, statistical method and non statistical method.

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1.4.6 Literature review This chapter is concerned with research objectives where the role of student satisfaction assurance within St Patricks college. It begins with an evaluation of the components of student satisfaction and the way which it can be obtain and so measured. Student loyalty programmes are then discussed using examples to illustrate how college can impact on student satisfaction. The importance of education quality and student relationship management is then explored in terms of the absolutes of quality management. In addition the basic elements of improvement are illustrated that lead to build a continuous ladder of student retention as a result of student satisfaction. And also it is concerned with the procedures and college management of student complaints which assist to satisfy students effectively. Certain characteristics of former students were associated with a high degree of reported satisfaction; for example, females and older students tended to report somewhat higher levels. Also, students who attended hospitality management courses and those in nursing or health-related programs were more likely to give high ratings for satisfaction. Although knowing student characteristics may not directly help institutions to improve student assessments, it is important to examine their influence in the mix of factors that affect satisfaction ratings. Four of the six dimensions were created from the ratings respondents gave to questions about the opportunities provided by their programs for skill development and personal growth are communication skills, social skills, analytical skills, and personal growth. The other two factors are curriculum and teaching which emerged from respondents program and course ratings. All the dimensions were positively correlated with the satisfaction measure, that is, former students who gave high ratings to their courses or skill development were likely to rate satisfaction high as well.3 While none of the six had a really high correlation with the satisfaction measure, together the dimensions explained 30 percent of the difference in satisfaction scores.4 That means that almost a third of the variability in the satisfaction measure ratings can be attributed to the aspects of the educational experience that are grouped into the dimensions shown in figure 13.

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Figure 13: Relationship between educational experience and student satisfaction, Waldmann (2001)

According to figure 13, whether the dimensions are considered together or independently, curriculum, teaching, and analytical skills consistently exerted the most influence on satisfaction ratings. The relationship between curriculum and overall satisfaction was the strongest of the six dimensions, closely followed by teaching and analytical skills. However, author suggests that this questionnaire should include questions that provided numerous items relating to former students educational experience and assessments of skills development and ratings of various aspects of courses and programs that could be used to explore satisfaction. To simplify the task of comparing a large number of variables to the satisfaction measure, they were grouped into six factors.

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Figure 14: Dimensions of educational experience, Abernethy2004)

According to figure 14, author argues that communication skills are the opportunities former students should be given to develop the ability to speak, write, and read well and are not as strongly related to the satisfaction measure. Likewise, personal growth and social skills are less likely to affect overall satisfaction.

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1.4.7 Ethical issues involved in questionnaire Ethics of a research is of primary significance. The author assumes when carrying out a research to measure the methods of improving student satisfaction, students who studying in St.patricks college are absolute respect, tact and diplomacy in responding to questionnaire. Hence there will not be no ethical issues occurred during that period. Thus when students in research are given appropriate information to make a properly informed decision, students supposed author may ensure that they are genuinely happy to be involved in research by protecting their rights. The other main issue needed to be aware of is confidentiality, as students worry about what sorts of restrictions are in place to make sure the information are accumulating isn't going to go elsewhere. And also it is vital to demonstrate how to ensure the confidentiality. And also it needs to consider hard about how to keep data anonymous but accessible. In addition it should be believed that it is essential to get an ethical approval from students and all participatory groups should be delighted similar, with consideration and respect. Students with their permission should be involved in the research.

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Chapter 2: Project management and decision making 2.1 Introduction Project Management is a well-established approach to managing and controlling the organizational changes to make decisions. A logical and systematic decision-making process helps to address the critical elements that result in a good decision. Effective and efficient decision making is at the heart of successful project teams, so its critical for project leaders to be aware of how decision making processes are really operating within the team. Breaking decisions down into three distinct levels allows the project manager to better manage the mission critical choices while providing a framework to align the hundreds of task specific decisions made by team members on a daily basis. (Refer figure 15)

Figure 15: Levels of decision making in project management, Eisenstat, R.A. (2004), Reflex decisions These are driven by Conscious decisions Rigorous decisions

the These are at the heart of team This defines the direction of Strategic the projects activity. Major of time and

values and priorities of the execution. company.

Since these are direction gets translated into investments

often delegated to others in specific actions pertaining to money are at stake with the organization its essential what and how choices that these, so its important to to ensure the project team has will have profound impact on make sure the right people a shared understanding of the the project teams results. driving forces behind these Collaborative decisions. are taking an objective look decision criteria and honest

processes at

Establishing ensure that diverse interests sharing

open,

Team Agreements is a and perspectives are shared perspectives on the risks and strategy for managing these to make the best decision impact these decisions will decisions efficiency, necks, to maximize that the core team members have on the project and bottle- are willing to actively company.

reduce trust

build

and support.

reinforce desired behaviours into everyday decisions.

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2.2 Application of St.patricks scenario of Graduation As explained in 2.1, author explains further, how a real organization makes decisions in project planning. For an example, St Patricks College has decided to arrange a graduate ceremony in year 2011. By the end of this event, students will get opportunities to intermingle with lecturers, fellow students to discuss about their career path. However the key to a successful project is creating a project plan that college should do when undertaking a graduation ceremony. Beside, many educational companies fail to realise the value of a project plan in saving time, money and many problems. Therefore, author attempted to develop a project plan which explains in appendix 2. Moreover while a project needs to be carefully planned, project management itself can also benefit from a defined plan. In fact, effective project management involves four phases. (Refer figure 16) Figure 16: Project phases, van Lent, L. (2004)

Nevertheless, author needs to utilize project management tools and techniques such as Gantt chart, pert and critical path analysis to draw project activities. (Kopeikina, L. (2005),

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2.2.1 Gantt chart Gantt Charts are constructive tools for analyzing and planning more complex projects. In order to arrange a graduate ceremony Gantt chart,

assists college to sketch out the tasks that need to be completed provides college a foundation for scheduling when these tasks will be carried out permits college to plan the allocation of resources needed to complete the project, and Facilitates college to work out the critical path for a project to complete it by a particular date.

As shown in figure 17, author used Microsoft project 2010 to develop Gantt chart and then attempted to list the tasks in project, and illustrated their relationship to one another and the schedule using Gantt bars. Here author suggests that each project's tasks can be listed in the grid portion on the left side of the Gantt Chart view, and then organize them into a hierarchy of summary tasks and subtasks. Here tasks can be linked together, to show task dependencies. In addition to the grid portion of the view, the Gantt chart view also gives a demonstrated version of task list, with Gantt bars that illustrate the duration of project's tasks across a timeline. For each task, the connected Gantt bar begins at the start date, and ends at the finish date. If tasks were linked together, the Gantt bars are connected on the chart with link lines.

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Figure 17: Gantt chart for graduation ceremony, Field work

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2.2.2 Net work diagram (PERT chart) A PERT chart is a project management tool (Program Evaluation Review) which presents a graphic illustration of a project as a network diagram consisting of

numbered nodes representing events, or milestones in the project linked by directional lines representing tasks in the project. The direction of the arrows on the lines indicates the sequence of tasks. For an example, author attempted to draw a net work diagram as a next step to schedule, organize, and coordinate tasks within a graduation ceremony project according to in detail gant chart displayed in figure 17. The author used Microsoft project to draw The Network Diagram (Figure 19) in Microsoft Office Project 2010 and to show the dependencies between tasks in a graphical manner. A box or a node represents each task, and a line connecting two boxes represents the dependency between two tasks. Then the author attempted to create new tasks quickly in a visual format using the Network Diagram and typed the name and duration for each task to create it. (Figure 18) On the other hand, author has identified that this network diagram can be much more difficult to interpret, especially on when this project getting complex.

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Figure 18: Activity network for graduation ceremony, Field work

Task Name Duration Start Finish Predecessors

1) Build up a project proposal

1 day

Mon 23/05/11

a) Identifies the objectives 2 days b) Identifies the key components c) Form the project team d) Approve with College e) Decorate the Hall or Location f) Develop a Theme
2 days 3 days 3 days 4 days 5 days

Mon 23/05/11 Wed Tue 24/05/11 25/05/11

Thu 26/05/11 Fri 27/05/11 2 Mon 30/05/11 Wed 01/06/11 Mon Thu 02/06/11 06/06/11 3 4

Tue 07/06/11 Fri 10/06/11 5 Mon 13/06/11 Mon 20/06/11 Wed 22/06/11 Fri 17/06/11 6 Tue 21/06/11 7

g) Rehearse the graduation 2 days march and arrange alphabetized seating h) Prepare a time plan for the Master of 1 day Ceremonies (MC), ahead of time i) Arrange the table with 1 day the diplomasj) Arrange a spot for the 2 days photographer k) Design a graduation 5 days program l) Plan an Entertainment 4 days Package with the Students m) Choose an inspirational 2 days featured speaker n) Arrange refreshments for the faculty and the 3 days parents o) Arrange Food service 1 day p) Event completion

Wed 22/06/11

Thu 23/06/11 Thu 23/06/11 9 Mon 27/06/11 Mon Tue 28/06/11 04/07/11 Fri 24/06/11 10 11

Tue 05/07/11 Fri 08/07/11 12 Mon 11/07/11 Wed 13/07/11 Tue 12/07/11 13

Fri 15/07/11 14

Tue 16/08/11 Tue 16/08/11

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Figure 19: Activity network for graduation ceremony, Field work

2.2.3 Critical path analysis Any project must be well planned, especially if a number of people are involved. Therefore author suggests when undertake the planning and to ensure that the various tasks required in the project are completed in time. As a result, author developed a method of scheduling graduation ceremony project shortly which is called net work analysis, but is more usually known as critical path analysis. In this example of St Patricks graduation ceremony, there is a clear sequence of events that have to happen in the right order. If any of the events on the critical path is delayed, then graduation ceremony will not be ready as soon. However author has identified that the critical path in the network diagram is identified as A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-J-K-L-M-N-O-P. Any stoppage on this path has no suppleness on the diagram to complete the project on time.

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2.3 Importance of project management tools for decision making Many managers base their decisions on data. In addition, to make planning and decision making more accurate, a variety of techniques such as Gantt chart, pert chart based on the scientific method, mathematics, and statistics have been developed. Beside software is available to carry out most planning and decision-making technique. However the author has identified that a Gantt chart graphically depicts the planned and actual progress of work, and is also referred to as a time and activity chart. At any given time, the project manager can see which activities have been completed on time. Because Gantt charts are used to monitor progress, they also act as control devices. On the other hand Project Gantt Charts and PERT charts are to be used as a tool to make decisions. They are not to be used as a pretty graphic to show management at a monthly meeting. Because Schedules help St.patricks college to think, to plan, to change course as needed. They change as the project progresses. 2.4 Importance of using software in project management Project management basically involves managing of resources, to finish a specific attainable task at a particular time frame. Project planning software has been one of the best things in project management. Everything just becomes easier. There are a number of project management software like Harvard Project Management, Primavera Project Planner, and Microsoft Project Management. Depending on the complexity of the project and size corresponding project management software could be selected from the various options available. One of the simple and flexible project management software which is on the middle scale should the author says is Microsoft Project. Some of the things that can be done using Microsoft Project are creating project calendar, baseline plan, resources entry, Gantt chart, project evaluation review technique (PERT) chart, and more. Beside there are so many benefits of using software. They are creating table if need be. Also, that once information is created on spreadsheets it is easily replicated, amended and communicated to others. (Donaldson, G., Lorsch, J. (1983),

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Chapter 3 Financial decision making 3.1 Introduction The accounting function qualities the economic relationships of a business, the finance function, on the other hand , manipulates those relationships in order to optimize the companys liquidity and profitability. So the finance model is a diverse set of techniques that are used to analyze and manage the future direction of the firms investments and financing. Management accounting is the primary source of accounting information for financial decisions. These accountants handle the information directly relating to input costs, various labour wages, facility overhead, sales revenues and other financial modelling. Management accountants should act responsibly when reporting this information; positive and negative aspects should be given to management. Providing a truthful assessment of financial information and the impact of financial decisions can help companies understand the potential economic impact of the decision. However managers at every level in company should make difficult financial decisions continuously. Analytical tools are significant in decision making, analysis, planning and control. The financing decision varies depending on the size of the firm, the location of the firm. When making financial decisions, the manager must determine the best financing mix or capital structure of the company. Beside al managers use financial tools with accounting software and these tools aids a business in the decision-making process. The financial tools are financial position analysis, profitability trends, cash flow analysis, and equity cash flows, payback period, present value, net present value and internal rate of return

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3.2 Tools for Financial decision making Investors use a number of methods to evaluate investment projects, rank them and select the most attractive among them to finance. Those with money to lend will lend it provided the rate of return (interest), the risk and responsibility (how quickly the money can be repossessed) are consistence with their expectations. most popular criteria applied. Payback period; Net present value; Internal rate of return. Depending on the type of investment is anticipated, it may be advisable to work out these criteria and include them in business plan. This section discusses three of the

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3.2.1 Payback period The payback period is defined as the number of years it will take to recover the original investment from future net cash flows. The pay back method does not account for savings that may continue from a project after the initial investment is paid back from the profits of the project. But this is good for a first cut analysis of a project to make business decision.

Moreover advantages of payback period are that it is simple to compute and understand, it handles investment risk effectively, it will give the exact period to pay back financing or loan and it will outline the difference between cash out flow and inflow. On the other hand the author argues that payback period method does not recognise the time value of money and ignores the profitability of an investment. However the calculation of the pay back period is the best illustrated with an example. Consider Capital Budgeting project A which yields the following cash flows over its five year life.

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5

Cash Flow -1000 500 400 200 200 100

Net Cash Flow -1000 -500 -100 100 300 400

After entering above figures to Excel spread sheet, the author was able to get cumulative cash flow or net cash flow. After two years the Net Cash Flow is negative (-1000 + 500 + 400 = 100) while after three years the Net Cash Flow is positive (-1000 + 500 + 400 + 200 = 100). Approximately 3 years required for an investment to recover its initial cost. But, if it is assumed that the cash flows occur regularly over the course of the year, the Payback Period can be calculated using the following equation, manually.

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3.2.2 Present value Present value is a fiscal term used to define the value of a certain amount of money at present. The present value of 1 today is 1. If deposits 100 in the bank, that 100 will become 105 in one year time at an interest rate of 5%. 105 is the Future Value (FV) of the 100 in the first year, for an example Year 1. If Mr David continues to put the money (105) in the bank, it will earn another 5% interest. His bank account will have 110.25. That is the future value of 100 today in year 2. And the future value depends on the interest rate offered by the bank. If the interest rate is 10%, the future value of 100 in year 2 is higher. The amount is 121(100*1.1*1.1). It is equal to original sum of 100 plus the interest for 2 years. The author states that the interest David earns in the first year will also earn interest in the second year too. Assuming that David needs to save 121 for some expenses two years from now, and he is interested to find out how much he would need to put into the bank today so that he will have 121 in the bank. As the bank is paying an interest rate of 10%, he knows that he needs to put in less today to obtain 121 in two years as a result of the interest his bank is paying him. That amount he is going to put in today is known as the present value. Microsoft Excel was able to help the author to find out what is that amount with its present value formula. Here is the way to find out. First present the numbers as shown in the diagram. It is known as the time line. It will help to clearly establish what he is going to calculate

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In Cell C5, author entered the Excel formula =PV (C3, 2, 0, E4) excluding the inverted commas. The formula calculated the amount David wanted to deposit into the bank today to earn 121 in 2 years time. Then author entered the interest rate the bank is paying David (C3), the number of years between now and the point he would like to receive the money (i.e.121), any payments or receipts between the beginning and the ending period/year. Finally, the amount author expected to have some time in the future (in our case, it is 121 or the value in E5). Once author has entered the formula (as shown in the formula bar in the diagram above, author pressed enter. Then Excel returned the value negative 100 which was the amount author had to put in today to make sure that it grows to 121 in two years time. The amount is negative to indicate that the money is taken from (and deposit into the bank) while a positive amount shows the amount was received later. The results which was called the present value would therefore showed the amount of money That Mr David wanted to put in today in order to take back 121 in 2 years time.

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3.3.3 Net present value The net present value (NPV) method is a useful method for evaluating investment projects. The NPV is equal to the present value of future net cash flows discounted at the cost of capital, minus the present value of the cost of the investment. The advantage of this method is that it takes into account the time value of money and takes into consideration the potential of the business over the entire planning period of the investment. The steps for obtaining the NPV are as follows. 1. Find the present value of each net cash flow, including the initial outflow, discounted at an appropriate percentage rate. The discount rate is based on the cost of capital for the project. The latter depends on the level of interstates in the economy, the riskiness of the project and several other factors. 2. Add up all discounted net cash flows over a defined planning period; their sum is defined as the project's NPV. 3. If the NPV is positive, the project can be normally accepted; if negative, it has to be rejected; and if two projects are mutually exclusive, the one with the higher positive NPV should be chosen The formula for this is,

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For an example, Mr David invests 100,000 in a project. A year later he invests another 50,000. From the second year onwards the net cash he receives is 45,000 per year over a period of five years. The cash flow is as follows,

year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Net cash flow -100000 -50000 45000 45000 45000 45000 45000

Cumulative cash flow -100000 -150000 -105000 -60000 -15000 30000 75000

Assuming the cost of capital to be 9 % and a planning period of six years the NPV is calculated to be as follows:

= 14,710.37.

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In this example Davids original wealth as an investor will increase by 14,710.37.Therefore, it is probably a beneficial investment. However the author provides a clear idea that how this was done in excel spreadsheet. First author has equally entered above values having spaces in time and occurs at the end of each period. Then author entered payment and income values in the correct sequence. Finally, the author got the formula as follows. Npv (discount rate, value2 ... value _n) - Initial Investment + value1 On the other hand the author argues that NPV is similar to the PV function (present value). The main distinction between PV and NPV is that PV allows cash flows to commence either at the end or at the beginning of the period. Unlike the variable NPV cash flow values, Present value cash flows must be steady throughout the investment.

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3.3.4 Internal rate of return Internal rate of return is sometimes referred to as economic rate of return (ERR).The internal rate of return is the discount rate that results in a net present value of zero for a series of future cash flows. The major difference is that while net present value is expressed in more units, the IRR is the true interest yield expected from an investment expressed as a percentage,

A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Data -70,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 26,000 Formula

B
Description Initial cost of a business Net income for the first year Net income for the second year Net income for the third year Net income for the fourth year Net income for the fifth year Description (Result)

=IRR(A2:A6) Investment's internal rate of return after four years (-2%) =IRR(A2:A7) Internal rate of return after five years (9%)

According to above example Value is a reference to cells that contain numbers for which the author wants to calculate the internal rate of return. Values must contain at least one positive value and one negative value to calculate the internal rate of return. IRR uses the order of values to interpret the order of cash flows. Just enter the cash flow values. So, if on a initial investment of -70,000, the net income of 5 years are 12000,15000,18000,21000 and 26000 and use the IRR function, as shown in excel spread sheet. so IRR of 5 years is 9%. Finally the author states that IRR is closely related to NPV, the net present value function. The rate of return calculated by IRR is the interest rate corresponding to a 0 (zero) net present value.

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3.5 Scenario examples Manchester Investment Period Year 1 Revenue Investment TOTAL Discount rate Discount factor Discounted cash flows IRR 40000 -200000 -160000 20 1.00

0 Year 2

1 Year 3

2 Year 4

3 Year 5

52000 52000 20 0.83

61000 61000 20 0.69

75000 75000 20 0.58

90000 90000 20 0.48

-160000 43333.33 42361.11 43402.78 43402.78 12500 NPV 23.70%

In order to decide the feasibility of the investment in Manchester, the discounted cash flow should be calculated for each year. Based on 20% discount rate the discount factors are obtained from the table and this allow to calculate the discounted cash flow for each year. At the end of the year 5, the total discounted cash flow becomes optimistic value. At the end of 5 years period the net present value is 12,500. The payback period is 3 years 3 months where the discounted cash flow becomes positive. Consequently the investment will be economically viable with inside the 5 year period.

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Exeter Investment Period Year 1 Revenue Investment TOTAL Discount rate Discount factor Discounted cash flows IRR

1 Year 2 Year 3

2 Year 4

3 Year 5

32000 45000 -200000 -168000 45000 20 20 1.00 0.83

65000 65000 20 0.69

76000 76000 20 0.58

89000 89000 20 0.48

-168000 37500 45138.89 43981.48 42920.52 1540.895 NPV 20.43%

Likewise the investment in Exeter is calculated and found the total discounted cash flow is still in negative. As a result the investment is viable at this period of 3.8 years. The Internal Rate of Return is a discounted cash flow method which looks to find the discount rate at which the present value of net cash inflows from a capital project exactly equal the capital payout. IRR is the net present value is zero. For an instance, IRR is 20.43% when NPV is zero.

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Brighton Investment Period Year 1 Revenue Investment TOTAL Discount rate Discount factor Discounted cash flows IRR

3 Year 5

Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 51000 51000 20 0.83 42500 63000 63000 20 0.69 74000 74000 20 0.58

36000 -190000 -154000 20 1.00 -154000 22.17%

88000 88000 20 0.48 7512.35 NPV

43750 42824.07 42438.27

The investment in Brighton is also feasible as the net present value is in optimistic at the end of 5 year period. The payback period is 3 years and 5 months

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3.6 Evaluate the Decision making at college According to figure 20 Manchester is the best location that St. Patricks should go for, because within 3 years and 3months college can handle the investment risk effectively. Though author argues that within 3 years and 3 times, college will not be able to identify the time value of money and ignores the profitability of investment. So, college can return 23.7% from an initial investment which is profitable to make the decision on Manchester location. Net present value of Manchester project measures the viability of a project by taking into account the investments (outflow) and returns generated (inflow) from the investment, which are 12500.

Figure 20: Evaluation of 3 locations, Field work Manchester Payback period (yrs) NPV () IRR (%) 3.3 12.,500 23.7 Exeter 3.8 1540.895 20.43 Brighton 3.5 7512.35 22.17

The author also has noticed, if college go for Exeter and Brighton location, that will make an average loss to their business. Because, within 3 years and 8months and 3 years and 5 months college then can handle the investment risk, though college would return 20.43% from Exter and 22.17% from Brighton. This does not make sound that college go for these 2 locations, unless Manchester meets so many barriers in capitalization.

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Chapter 4: Data presentation and interpretation for decision making 4.1 Data analysis Data analysis is an exercise in which raw data is instructed and organized so that helpful information can be taken out from it. Raw data can take a variety of forms, including measurements, survey responses, and observations. Beside charts and graphs of data are all forms of data analysis. These methods are designed to demonstrate the data so that readers can gather information without needing to sort through all of the data on their own. Summarizing data is often significant to supporting arguments made with that data, as is presenting the data in a obvious and understandable way. 4.2 A Statistical analysis of Customer satisfaction at Egham wines Ltd First Quench Retailing is the UKs leading independent specialist drinks retailer which brings in Threshers, The Locals, Wine Rack and Haddows. Together First Quench Retailing operates over 1500 outlets and employs over 12,000 people across the country. Its the UKs 13th largest private retailer and it serves over 150 million customers a year across the different brands all over. Fundamentally, author attempts to discuss how the company makes decisions by using data. (Refer appendix 3) 4.3 Measures of Central Tendency While distributions provide an overall picture of some data set, it is sometimes desirable to represent some property of the entire data set using a single statistic There are different measures of central tendency that company follows, The mode The median The mean

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4.3.1 The mode The mode is the average value, calculated by adding all the observations and dividing by the number of observations. Figure 21: Weekly shopping information, Field work

Weekly shopping 01 to 02 03 to 04 05 to 07 07+

Frequency 2 11 15 12

Class width 1 1 2 7

Frequency density 2 11 7.5 1.7

As shown in figure 21 the highest frequency density is 11 which is the mode of shopping in a week at the branch is 3- 4. To provide this scenario author has used Microsoft Excel spreadsheet as it was quick and easy to measure the results of these outcome.

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4.3.2 Mean and Median 4.3.2.1 The median The two most common measures of central tendency are the median and the mean, which can be illustrated with an example. Suppose Threshers draw a sample of five customers and measure their purchasing behaviour which shows in figure 22. Figure 22: Purchasing behaviour of customers, Field work
Number of customers 1 2 3 4 5 Purchasing behaviour 100 100 130 140 150

According to figure 22, to find median, by using Microsoft Excel, the author arranged the observations in order from smallest to largest value. If there are an odd number of observations, the median is the middle value. If there is an even number of observations, the median is the average of the two middle values. Thus, in the sample of five customers, the median value would be 130 pounds; since 130 pounds is the middle price. 4.3.2.2 The mean The mean of a sample or a population is computed in Excel by adding all of the observations and dividing by the number of observations. Returning to the example of figure 22, the mean of their purchasing behaviour would equal (100 + 100 + 130 + 140 + 150)/5 = 620/5 = 124 pounds. In the general case, the mean can be calculated, using one of the following equations: Population mean = = X / N OR Sample mean = x = x / n

Where X is the sum of all the population observations, N is the number of population observations, x is the sum of all the sample observations, and n is the number of sample observations.

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4.4 Measures of dispersion Schwager (1986) illustrates that the important characteristic of a data set is how it is distributed, or how far each element is from some measure of central tendency (average). There are several ways to measure the variability of the data. Although the most common and most important is the standard deviation, which provides an average distance for each element from the mean, several others are also important. The mainly used measures of dispersion are as follows. Range Standard deviation Interquartile range The information was generated from this basic question. Whats the features that does not have on customers purchased wine, Opinion of customers, Taste Aroma Body Flavours Blend Other

Figure 23: customers preferred opinion on the wine features, Field work
Features Frequency 1 4 2 4 3 15 4 10 5 5 6 2 Cumulative 4 8 23 33 38 40

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4.4.1 Range Gegi (2006) the simplest measure of the spread of your data is its range, the range of a distribution is defined as the difference between the largest and the smallest observed data values. One of the simplest measures of variability to calculate depends only on extreme values and provides no information about how the remaining data is distributed. From the finding from the customers as shown in figure 23, the range is as below. The lowest and highest data values respectively is 2 and 15

15 2 = 13 is the range in the figure 21 this range falls in between the features 3 and 4 which are body of the wine and flavors of the wine which are the features the customers feel lacking in the present range of available wines which need to be taken in to considered in the new product development of wines which will satisfy the customers needs effectively. 4.4.2 Standard deviation Greg(2002 ) defines standard deviation as the average difference between any values and the mean of all the values, further he explains this statistics is a measure of the variation in a distribution value.

Values

4+4+15+10+5+2

40

6.6

As per the above calculation the standard deviation value is 6.6 which represent the features of Aroma and Body of the wine which the customers think need to be improved.

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4.4.3 Inter quartile Range Williams(2008) defines inter quartile as a measure of variability that overcomes the

dependency on extreme values is the Interquartile range .further he states these measure of variability is the difference between the third quartile Q3 and the first quartile Q1, in related in figure 23. Q3-Q1= 30.75-10.25 =20.5 4.4.4 Lower quartile Williams (2008) defines Interquartile as the value of the boundary at the 25th, 50th, or 75th percentiles of a frequency distribution divided into four parts, each containing a quarter of the population. The 25th being the lower quartile 50th being the median and the 75th being the upper quartile . Author explains the lower and the upper quartile values for selected area, related to figure 23. Formula Q1 = n + Q1 = 40 + Q1 = 10.25 In figure 23 the lower quartile value is represented by the feature is the aroma and the body of the wine, which is one of the main and most sorted after feature by the customers.

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Upper quartile formula Q3 = 3(1+ 1/4) Q3 = 40 (1+ ) Q3 = 30.75 The above upper quartile value represent the feature body and flavor of the wine , where the opinion reflects that the present features are that very well accepted by the customers where they emphasize the fact that new wines with the selected features which they are interested need to be developed by the organization to retain the present customer base. One of the three numbers (values) that divide a range of data into four equal parts. The first quartile (lower quartile) is the number below, which lays the 25 percent of the bottom data. The second quartile (median) divides the range in the middle and has 50 percent of the data below it. The third quartile (upper quartile) has 75 percent of the data below it and the top 25 percent of the data above it. The formulas for the quartiles are as follows. Q1 = n + Q2 = n + 1/2 25th percentile 50th percentile

Q3 = 3(n+1/4) 75th percentile

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4.4.5 Percentile As shown in figure 23, numbers (value) that represents a percentage position in a list (range) of data. For example, if the performance of an entity is at 43rd percentile, then it performs better than 43 percent of all entities within its group. 4.4.6 The correlation coefficient The correlation coefficient is another measure of linear association between two variables that takes on values between -1 and +1. Values near +1 indicate a strong positive linear relationship, values near -1 indicate a strong negative linear relationship, and values near 0 indicate the lack of a linear relationship. The above theoretical formulas are practically adopted for the following findings for the customers requirement of feature.

With the above use of measures of dispersion its evident that the need of increasing customer satisfaction for the organization is a must to compete in the market and to have a competitive advantage over the others. However The need of measures of dispersion is so important if a business is to be viable as identifying the short fall either from the customer nor from its market share can is easy, but to identify the exact factor can be done only through precise data identification and measuring those effectively using the available methods and overcoming the issues is very much important. Further through measures of dispersion the decision making in a business scenario is much effective to the strategic level decision makers.

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4.5 Data presentation and format Data interpretation is a body of methods that help to describe facts, detect patterns, develop explanations, and test hypotheses. The numerical results provided by a data presentation are usually simple which finds the number that describes a typical value and it finds differences among numbers. Beside data can be significant in decision making in strategic planning, in developing operational plans and in implementation of operational plans.Current business technology permits companies to utilize many software programs and designs or to create business decision making. Information technology commonly used in businesses includes computers, servers, business software such as Ms Office to draw spreadsheets, Gantt charts and other histograms, pie charts. Companies may also use software technology to gather external information that allows them to make more profitable decisions. However the author attempts to provide fundamental attitude about Graphs and charts in following figure 24. Figure 24: Fundamentals of Graphs and charts, Field work

Chart/graph 1. Pie 2. Bar

3. Line 4. Histograms

Purpose To show relative sizes of the components of a data-set, in comparison to one another and to the whole set. To compare classes or groups of data. In bar charts, a class or group can have a single category of data, or they can be broken down further into multiple categories for greater depth of analysis. To displaying data or information that changes continuously over time. To show Individual data points are grouped together in classes, so that managers can get an idea of how frequently data in each class occur in the data set. High bars indicate more points in a class, and low bars indicate fewer points.

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4.5.1 Statistics of shopping at Threshers As shown in figure 23, the author attempted to draw a pie chart which is shown in figure 25 about the customers shopping frequency at the Threshers. 37% of customers were shopping so frequently to full fill their needs, 30% of them shop on a daily basis which indicates that the organisation has to build up a very strong customer base and effective product portfolio, further through this analyse its evident that the customers satisfaction is high. Figure 25: Sopping frequency at Threshers, Field work

7 + times 30%

1- 2 times 5% 3- 4 times 28%

5- 7 times 37%

Moreover the author used Microsoft Excel to interpret the data in figure 23. In doing so at first author highlighted the data in figure 23 and Inserted menu at the top of Excel and located the Chart panel, and the Pie item.

Then again author clicked the down arrow and selected the first Pie chart.

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4.5.2 Analysis of the weekly spending at Threshers. The author attempted to analyse the consumers spending pattern in Excel spreadsheet by entering the data in figure 26, to demonstrate the clear picture. Figure 26: Consumer spending pattern, Field work.
Money wines 1- 19 20 - 39 40 - 69 70 - 99 100 + 1 5 6 13 15 18 19 29 29 100 0.05 0.26 0.20 0.44 0.15 spent on Frequency Class width Frequency density

By using the same method as explained in above, (entering bar chart function) author was able to draw a bar chart. Figure 27: Spending pattern of customers, Field work

Rose Red White 0 5 10 15 20 Frequency

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According to figure 27, this bar chart indicates that 37.5% of customers spending more than 100 on a weekly basis, most of the customers purchase high end wines which unique to the organisation and the competitors havent been able to gain on , which also has high margins,32.5% of customers spend between 70 - 99 whom are the regular customers of the organisation , altogether 70 % of the customers are regular and permanent customers, which is a positive factor considering the present economic condition. On the other hand, the same data in figure 26 can be entered in excel spreadsheet by clicking on line graph which is a different function and then can have a different conclusion. Figure 28: Statistics on wine purchased, Field work

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 Preferred wine 3 4 Frequency 5 6

As shown in figure 28, this line graph indicates the amount of money that been spend on a week. So the highest frequency density is 0.44 and the mode is 70 99.which is continuous data.

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4.5.3 Statistics on consumer behavior As explained in above, the author highlights the importance on analyzing the consumer behavior in order to identifying the market position of Threshers. Hence, author used Excel as usual to interpret data in figure 30 and obtained a fine conclusion. Figure 30: Most preferred wine, Field work
Preferred wine White Red Rose Frequency 19 14 7

Figure 31: Variety of wine purchased, Field work

18%

Red

35%

Rose

47%

White

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

According to figure 31, the most selling wine of the organisation is white , which is 47% of the total sales and Rose wines amount for 35% of the sales, the organisation should adopt strategies to increase the sales of Red wines .

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4.6 Time Series Forecasting As illustrated in figure 32, author utilized Excel to provide the set of evenly spaced numerical data of the above wine company obtained by observing response variable at regular time periods. This forecast based only on past values that assumes that factors influencing past and present will continue influence in future Figure 32: Components of Demand at the company, Field work

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4.7 Marketing Strategy of Egham wines Ltd Pinson (2001) marketing strategy integrates the activities involved in the product development, promotion, distribution, and pricing approach, identifies firm marketing goals and identifies how they will be achieved in a limited time frame. The marketing strategy of the Egham wines Ltd is to increase the market share by 4% from the present share, as well as to increase the sales of wines from 60% presently to 70% in two years time by (2011). This would pave the way to them financially stabilize their position in the market. Figure 33: Increased sales of wine, www.igham.co.uk

In figure 33 its been clearly defined the marketing strategy to increase sales of wines at Threshers Egham branch by 10% from 2009 to 2011 which is an achievable target on the present market share of the above organisation in the market.

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4.7.1 The present profit margins on sales of products The figure 34 states the present profit margins of products at the above organisation which shows 45% is gained from the sales of wine with 60% of sales and by achieving the marketing strategy by 2011 would give the organisation the much needed assistance with the economical constrains which is predicted by world over for next couple of years. Figure 34: Profit margins, Field work

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Conclusion and Recommendation From the above report it can be seen that there are many factors a company should consider in making decisions. For an example, the author attempted to discuss these in depth via evaluating the student satisfaction of St.patricks college and arranging graduation ceremony. And factors like strategies they are going to use against their other education establishments what kind of courses does the market actually need, long term viability of the project and many more. Answers for most of these can be found by conducting research and making effective use of the information gathered. Beside the authors took St Patricks college as an example and showed how the college was able to use a variety of sources for the collection of data, both primary and secondary. And the author has discussed about a range of techniques to analyse data effectively for business purposes. More over the author was able to produce information in appropriate formats for decision making in an organisational context by using software-generated information to make decisions in an organisation. To be successful in today's business environment, the author recommends that organizations need rapid and easy access to information about their finances, customers, and external market conditions. According to the scenarios of St. Patricks college author recommends to use Microsoft's team collaboration and business intelligence solutions in which that not only college but also other companies can achieve greater efficiency by easily and securely sharing information with employees, stakeholders, and customers. And also the author recommend for any company to Improve productivity and decision-making throughout organization by integrating critical information with intuitive business operations applications.

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References 1. Albright,S,C.,Winston,W,L.,Zapper,C,J.,(2006) data analysis & Decision making : with Microsoft Excel (3rd edition) south western cengage leaning 2. Brue,G.,(2002) six sigma for managers ,Mc graw hill professional publication 3. Barnard, C. (1938), The Function of the Executive, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, . 4. Bass, B.M. (1990), Bass & Stogdill's Handbook of Leadership, Free Press, New York, NY 5. Beer, M. (1997), "Conducting a performance appraisal interview", Class room note, Harvard Business School case study, Boston, MA 6. Brown, J., Courtney, N., Hendry, C. (2006), "Innovation and the performance management system", paper presented at Performance Measurement and Management 2006: Public and Private, Cranfield School of Management, Cranfield, 7. Crouch,S.,Housden,M., (2003) marketing research for managers (3rd edition) Butterworth Heinemann publication 8. Clarck,M., (1998) researching and writing dissertations in hospitality & tourism, Cenage learning 9. Donaldson, G., Lorsch, J. (1983), Decision Making at the Top, Basic Books, New York, NY, 10. Gomes,R.,Knowels,AP.,(2006) Non profit marketing ,sage publication 11. Gygi,C.,(2006) six sigma for dummies wiley publication India 12. Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L., Raiffa, H. (1999), Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA, 13. Kopeikina, L. (2005), The Right Decision Every Time: How to Reach Perfect Clarity on Tough Decisions, Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 14. Lake,C,C.,Harper,C,P., Alliance,M.,(1987) Public opinion pooling ,Island press 15. Malina, M.A., Selto, F.H. (2001), "Selto communicating and controlling strategy: an empirical study of the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard", Journal of Management Accounting Research, Vol. 13 pp.47-90. 16. Merchand, K.A., Simons, R. (1986), "Research and control in complex organizations: an overview", Journal of Accounting Literature, Vol. 5 pp.183-203. 17. Pinson,L., (2002) anatomy of business plan (5th edition) Dearborn trade publication

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18. Schwager,J,D.,(1984) A complete guide to the future markets : fundamental analysis ,dchenal wiley publication 19. Seemann, P., Hppi, R. (2001), "Social capital: securing competitive advantage in the new economy", Financial Times, London, 20. Simons, R. (2005), Levers of Organization Design: How Managers Use Accountability Systems for Greater Performance and Commitment, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA, . 21. Simons, R. (1995), Levers of Control: How Managers Use Innovative Control Systems to Drive Strategic Renewal, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA, . 22. Schwager,J,D.,(1984) A complete guide to the future markets : fundamental analysis ,dchenal wiley publication 23. Tylor,S.,(2007) The managers good study guide,(3rd edition) open university 24. Wiiams(2008) Essenstial of statistics for business & economics (5th edition) cengage learning 25. Ulrich, D., Smallwood, N. (2003), Why the Bottom Line Isn't: How to Build Value through People and Organization, Wiley, New York, NY,

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Appendix 1 : The Respondent Profile Response rates have been broken down according to the profile categories included in the survey. It should be noted that these response rates have not been corrected according to the student population. The questionnairs were distributed by hand. According to the questionnaire overall, communication of information was rated as very important and satisfactory by the student population [B]. The only deviation from this was within the way timetable is spread over the day and week; students thought this was important rather than very important [b], and the complaints procedure which students rated as only ok and important [c]. Students overall level of satisfaction with the

communication of information on programme organisation and assessment was graded as [B]. The personal tutor system received grade [B] for three of the four questions, with the question on the ease of discussing personal problems with your personal tutor rated by students as slightly less important, but just as satisfied [b]. Students overall satisfaction with the personal tutor system was again graded as [B], satisfactory and very important. Both the availability of information about assignment deadlines and clarity of information about assessment dates were awarded [A] grades by students. However the usefulness of tutors / lecturers feedback, the amount of feedback and the promptness of feedback on assignments were graded lower by students as only [C], indicating only levels of average satisfaction for issues which were regarded as very important. This reduced students overall satisfaction with their level of workload and assessment to [B]. Finally, in Your Evaluation Overall satisfaction section, students were asked to rate various aspects of their college experience from 0%, meaning that they were totally dissatisfied to 100% indicating total satisfaction. The college as a whole mean level of satisfaction was 76%. The average department percent was 75% the students union was slightly lower at 67% and students individual academic programme was rated at 74% and the potential career prospects at 76% Finally, 93% of students would recommend the college to a friend or a relative.

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Appendix 2: Project planning Step 1: Project plan A project is successful when the needs of the stakeholders have been met. A stakeholder is anybody directly or indirectly impacted by the project. As a first step, it is important to identify the stakeholders in St.patricks graduation ceremony. They are,

The project sponsor. Students who receives the deliverables. The users of the project outputs. The project manager and project team.

By understanding who the stakeholders are, the next step is to find out their needs. The best way to do this is by conducting stakeholder interviews. Take time during the interviews to draw out the true needs that create real benefits. Often stakeholders will talk about needs that aren't relevant and don't deliver benefits. These set the goals and objectives for the project. The goal of the event is to arrange a graduate ceremony .The objectives of the project are to form twenty six team members to start the project on 6th June 2011, complete within 85 weeks, under the allocated budget cost of 40,000 and invite external educational bodies, to explain the significance of education at St.patricks college. The quality of the conference is measured from feedback.

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Step 2: Project deliverables Using the goals have defined in step 1, there are a list of things that the project needs to deliver in order to meet those goals. They are, - corroborate the guests - Carry out a search on event halls. -choose a venue - discover and enquire the catering providers - Confirm venue and Catering services -arrange the programme for each days of the event. More accurate delivery date will be established during the scheduling phase, which is next. Step 3: Project Schedule At this point in the planning, author could choose to use a software package such as Microsoft project professional to create project schedule. Moreover the following facilities are required to manage the project more effectively and efficiently. Computers, printers, and software for the project management team. These resources can be shared with team members at later stage. Utilize the Students database to access for the graduation event. External meetings such as Venues, Meeting rooms facilities. Document handing and central storage system electronically and security restrictions.

A common problem discovered at this point, is when a project has an imposed delivery deadline from the sponsor that is not realistic based on estimation. If author discovers that this is the case, author must contact the sponsor immediately. The options author has in this situation are renegotiate the deadline (project delay),employ additional resources (increased cost),reduce the scope of the project (less delivered),Finally author needs to use the project schedule to justify pursuing one of these options.
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Step 4: Supporting Plans This section deals with plans that author attempted to create as part of the planning process. These can be included directly in the plan. Human Resource Plan Communications Plan Risk Management Plan

Here are some examples of common project risks:

Time and cost estimates too optimistic. Customer review and feedback cycle too slow. Unexpected budget cuts. Unclear roles and responsibilities. Stakeholder input is not sought, or their needs are not properly understood. Stakeholders changing requirements after the project has started. Stakeholders adding new requirements after the project have started. Poor communication resulting in misunderstandings, quality problems and rework. Lack of resource commitment.

Risks can be tracked using a simple risk log. And author suggests by reviewing risk log on a regular basis, adding new risks as they occur during the life of the project.

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Appendix 3: Power point presentation for Q4

A Statistical analysis of Customer satisfaction at Egham wines Ltd

Egham wines Ltd

First

Quench Retailing is the UKs leading independent specialist drinks retailer which brings in Threshers, The Locals, Wine Rack and Haddows. Together First Quench Retailing operates over 1500 outlets and employs over 12,000 people across the country. Its the UKs 13th largest private retailer and it serves over 150 million customers a year across the different brands all over.

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Measures of Central Tendency

While distributions provide an overall picture of some data set, it is sometimes desirable to represent some property of the entire data set using a single statistic

There are different measures of central tendency,

The mode The median The mean

The Mode
1- 2 times 5% 7 + times 30% 3- 4 times 28%

5- 7 times 37%

Figure 1

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Figure 1 shows the customers shopping frequency at the Threshers where 37% of them shop so frequently to full fill there needs , 30% of them shop on a daily basis which indicates that the organisation has build up a very strong customer base and effective product portfolio, further through this analyse its evident that the customers satisfaction is high.
And the shopping frequency at the discussed branch where the highest frequency density is 11 which is the mode of shopping in a week at the branch is 3- 4 .

The Mean and The Median

The two most common measures of central tendency are the median and the mean, which can be illustrated with an example. Suppose Threshers draw a sample of five customers and measure their purchasing behaviour. They buy products for 100 pounds, 100 pounds, 130 pounds, 140 pounds, and 150 pounds. To find the median, better to arrange the observations in order from smallest to largest value. If there is an odd number of observations, the median is the middle value. If there is an even number of observations, the median is the average of the two middle values. Thus, in the sample of five customers, the median value would be 130 pounds; since 130 pounds is the middle price.

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The mean of a sample or a population is computed by adding all of the observations and dividing by the number of observations. Returning to the example of the five customers, the mean of their purchasing behaviour would equal (100 + 100 + 130 + 140 + 150)/5 = 620/5 = 124 pounds. In the general case, the mean can be calculated, using one of the following equations: Population mean = = X / N OR Sample mean = x = x / n where X is the sum of all the population observations, N is the number of population observations, x is the sum of all the sample observations, and n is the number of sample observations.

Measures of dispersion
Schwager (1986) illustrates that the important characteristic of a data set is how it is distributed, or how far each element is from some measure of central tendency (average). There are several ways to measure the variability of the data. Although the most common and most important is the standard deviation, which provides an average distance for each element from the mean, several others are also important. The mainly used measures of dispersion are as follows.

Range Standard deviation Interquartile range

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The information was generated from this basic question. Whats the features that does not have on customers purchased wine ,Opinion of customers , Taste Aroma Body Flavours Blend Other

Table 2 customers preferred opinion on the wine features

40%

35% 30% 25% 20%

15%

10% 5% 0% Taste Aroma Body Flavours Blend Other

Figure 3, Characters of the wine

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Range Gegi (2006) the simplest measure of the spread of your data is its range , the range of a distribution is defined as the difference between the largest and the smallest observed data values. One of the simplest measures of variability to calculate, depends only on extreme values and provides no information about how the remaining data is distributed. From the finding from the customers,the range is as below.

The lowest and highest data values respectively is 2 and 15

15 2 = 13 is the range in the table 1 this range falls in between the features 3 and 4 which are body of the wine and flavors of the wine which are the features the customers feel lacking in the present range of available wines which need to be taken in to considered in the new product development of wines which will satisfy the customers needs effectively.

Standard deviation

Greg(2002 ) defines standard deviation as the average difference between any values and the mean of all the values, further he explains this statistics is a measure of the variation in a distribution value.

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Values = 4+4+15+10+5+2 = 40 / 6 = 6.6 As per the above calculation the standard deviation value is 6.6 which represent the features of Aroma and Body of the wine which the customers think need to be improved.
Williams(2008) defines inter quartile as a measure of variability that overcomes the dependency on extreme values is the interquratile range .further he states these measure of variability is the difference between the third quartile Q3 and the first quartile Q1.

Inter quartile Range

Lower quartile

Williams (2008) defines interquartile as the value of the boundary at the 25th, 50th, or 75th percentiles of a frequency distribution divided into four parts, each containing a quarter of the population. The 25th being the lower quartile 50th being the median and the 75th being the upper quartile .

explains the lower and the upper quartile values for selected area. Formula Q1 = n +

Q1 = 40 + Q1 = 10.25 In table 1 the lower quartile value is represented by the feature is the aroma and the body of the wine, which is one of the main and most sorted after feature by the customers.

Upper quartile

formula Q3 = 3(1+ 1/4) Q3 = 40 (1+ ) Q3 = 30.75 The above upper quartile value represent the feature body and flavor of the wine , where the opinion reflects that the present features are that very well accepted by the customers where they emphasize the fact that new wines with the selected features which they are interested need to be developed by the organization to retain the present customer base.

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Quartiles

One of the three numbers (values) that divide a range of data into four equal parts. The first quartile (lower quartile) is the number below, which lays the 25 percent of the bottom data. The second quartile (median) divides the range in the middle and has 50 percent of the data below it. The third quartile (upper quartile) has 75 percent of the data below it and the top 25 percent of the data above it. The formulas for the quartiles are as follows.

Q1 = n +

25th percentile

Q2 = n + 1/2 50th percentile Q3 = 3(n+1/4) 75th percentile

Percentile

Number (value) that represents a percentage position in a list (range) of data. For example, if the performance of an entity is at 43rd percentile, then it performs better than 43 percent of all entities within its group. The correlation coefficient is another measure of linear association between two variables that takes on values between -1 and +1. Values near +1 indicate a strong positive linear relationship, values near -1 indicate a strong negative linear relationship, and values near 0 indicate the lack of a linear relationship.

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The above theoretical formulas are practically adopted for the following findings for the customers requirement of feature.

With the above use of measures of dispersion its evident that the need of increasing customer satisfaction for the organization is a must to compete in the market and to have a competitive advantage over the others.

However The need of measures of dispersion is so important if a business is to be viable as identifying the short fall either from the customer nor from its market share can is easy, but to identify the exact factor can be done only through precise data identification and measuring those effectively using the available methods and overcoming the issues is very much important. Further through measures of dispersion the decision making in a business scenario is much effective to the strategic level decision makers.

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Time Series Forecasting

Set of evenly spaced numerical data Obtained by observing response variable at regular time periods
Forecast based only on past values Assumes that factors influencing past and present will continue influence in future

Components of Demand at the company

Figure 4 : Components of demand

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The present profit margins on sales of products

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Wine Spirits Beer Others

Figure 6: Profit margins

The

figure 6 states the present profit margins of products at the above organisation which shows 45% is gained from the sales of wine with 60% of sales and by achieving the marketing strategy by 2011 would give the organisation the much needed assistance with the economical constrains which is predicted by world over for next couple of years.

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THANK YOU

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