Coherency of Sea Level Across Oceanic Basins derived from Tide Gauge Records

James Rennell Division for Ocean Circulation and Climate, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton agps@noc.soton.ac.uk

A.G.P. Shaw and M.N. Tsimplis

ABSTRACT

Cross-correlations of regional sea level indices between three oceanic basins (Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans) and the European Seas (Baltic and Mediterranean Sea) are investigated with the aim of identifying possible teleconnections across ocean basins. Globally, interactions between regional sea level indices and their relationships with climate indices are not well understood. This work reveals teleconnections in sea level both within and between basins using regional sea level indices derived from tide gauge records.

Studies have shown that the coastal sea level rose faster than the global average during the late 1960s and early 1970s, where the main contributing factors were the El Nio events (White, et al. 2005, Holgate and Woodworth, 2004). Jacobs, et al (1994) provided evidence that the 1983 ENSO event induced Rossby waves that propagated westwards across the Pacific Ocean and interfered with the Kuroshio Current a decade later. Sturges (1987) suggested that Rossby wave propagation might be the reason why there was a coherent sea level signal between San Francisco and Honolulu that had a period of greater than 5 years. However, recent work by Firing et al. (2004) suggested the weak Hawaiian sea level link with ENSO is associated with local atmospheric forcing teleconnected to the tropical variability rather than wave propagation. Recent studies have shown that sea level around Europe is highly coherent and is well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (e.g. Tsimplis and Josey, 2001; Wakelin et al., 2003; Woolf et al., 2003). We investigate teleconnections at zero time lag.

Introduction

Coherent sea level signals were extracted from the tide gauge records using EOFs to produce the regional sea level indices. In selecting the regions several criteria for the EOFs were applied. First, at least 70% of the variability of the regions should be explained by the first two EOFs. In addition, when each tide gauge with the selected region is reconstructed on the bases of the first two EOFs, it should explain at least 70% of the variance. Finally, the selected tide gauges within each region should be evenly distributed. Here, 42 regions were found to contain a coherent sea level signal. An additional restriction for each region involved maximising the overlap of the number of tide gauge record lengths, with the minimal linear interpolation applied. Thus, the total number of tide gauges used for this study is 177. The tide gauge data is from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) containing monthly values, where each of these tide gauge records covers at least 20 continuous years of data with less than 25% missing values. The tide gauge data were then detrended and the mean monthly seasonal cycle removed (see Shaw et al., submitted)

Method

Results
Total Variance Explained

No. of Tide Gauges

60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 0 50 100 150 IND1 P12 P9 IND2 P8 P13 P11 P10 P7 P6

P14 P1 P2 P15

A9 A8 A7 A5 A6 A4 P16 P17 A3 A2

10 5

10 5

A11

A10 M1

A1 TPI MOI NAO PDO SOI IN3 IN1 P18

A7

A11

NB5

M3

P1

P9

P18

IN3

A1

A7

A11

NB5

M3

P1

P9

P18

IN3

No. of Tide Gauges

80

100 90 80 70 60 50

15

100 90 80 70 60 50

15

IND3 P4

P5 P3

Indian Ocean

Indian Ocean

TPI MOI NAO PDO SOI IN3 IN1 P18

A1 P18

(a)
200 250

Pacific Ocean
350

Pacific Ocean

300

(a)
P1 M5

(b)
Mediterranean Sea North Sea and Baltic Sea Atlantic Ocean
P1 M5 M1 NB5 NB1 A11

Figure 2 Cross correlation matrix between near global regional sea level indices for time series associated with the first EOF for the period 1948-2001 (a). The same cross correlations are shown with the sea level pressure (SLP) removed using a globally average SLP (b) and using a local average SLP (c). Figure 2d represents the cross correlation of SLP only (de-trended and seasonal cycle removed) that are associated with the same geographical regions. The lower triangle shows the estimated correlation between regions, correlations not significant at the 99% confidence level are shown in white in the upper triangle. The names on the x and y axes indicate the particular region shown in Figure1. The correlation of these indices with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI) and Trans Polar Index (TPI) are also shown. The percentage of the total variance explained by the 1st EOF (red dotted line) and the combined 1st and 2nd EOF (red solid line) as well as the number of tide gauges used (blue line) for each region are shown at the top of (a & b) and at the bottom in (c).

70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 -10 0 10 20
A10 A11 M1 NB1 NB3 NB2

M1 NB5 NB1 A11

Mediterranean Sea North Sea and Baltic Sea Atlantic Ocean

NB4 NB5 M2 M3 M4 M5

SOI PDO NAO MOI TPI

(b)
30 40 50

TPI MOI NAO PDO SOI IN3 IN1 P18

SOI PDO NAO MOI TPI

A1

A1

A11 NB1

NB5 M1

M5 P1

P18 IN1-3

A1

A11 NB1

NB5 M1

M5 P1

P18 IN1-3

A1 TPI MOI NAO PDO SOI IN3 IN1 P18

Total Variance Explained

100 90 80 70 60 50

15

10 5

A1

A7

A11

NB5

M3

P1

P9

P18

IN3

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.6

Tele-connections within Ocean Basins and around Europe (Figure 2a) Adjacent regional sea level indices were found to have high spatial coherency. Europe: -ve r between western Mediterranean and the North Sea and Baltic Sea +ve r between western Mediterranean and the western British Isles; Ireland and Spain High coherency is observed within each semi-enclosed basin Atlantic Ocean -ve r between mid-latitude western Atlantic and Iceland; NE Atlantic Regions +ve r between Iceland and western British Isles, but not with the Atlantic coast of Spain Coherency is found at the south US Atlantic Coasts and the central western Atlantic Ocean (including the Gulf of Mexico) Pacific Ocean Little cross-correlations within the basin -ve r between eastern Pacific Ocean and south west Pacific -ve r between central Pacific Ocean and the western central Pacific Ocean +ve r between western central Pacific and eastern Australia Indian Ocean: No significant correlations within the basin

Inverse Barometric (IB) Correction (Figure 2b-c) Very little difference between the local average and monthly globally average SLP methods The semi -enclosed basins (i.e. Mediterranean Sea, Baltic Sea and Black Sea have a general decrease in the r magnitude, and in some cases, r becomes statistically insignificant when using IB correction The r between NAO to both the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas decrease, with the IB correction There is evidence to suggest that atmospheric pressure departs from the IB within these semi enclosed basins Open Ocean Tele-connection due to Atmospheric Pressure at Sea Level Most changes in the r value introduced by the IB correction are in most cases, less than 0.1 The r values between north east Australia to both western central and eastern Pacific is > 0.1 Open Ocean Tele-connection unaffected by Atmospheric Pressure at Sea Level The influence of SLP in the tropical regions has little effect on sea level variability because SLP is relatively small compared with higher latitudes. -ve r between North Japan with both Iceland and North Sea -ve r between the western Mediterranean Sea and the north area of the Gulf of Mexico Sea Level Pressure (Figure 2d) Little r of SLP in the Pacific meaning that SLP does not play a major role in sea level variability Where SLP is highly correlated, such as the European Seas, also affects sea level variability

Conclusion Sea level coherency exists at the regional index spatial scale with a rapid reduction in areas further apart, with exception of some specific areas around the world. It is quite clear that climate indices affect sea level variability, in cases, over large distances. However, sea level pressure does not play a large role in influencing sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, even though the ENSO has a pressure component that is quite dominant. This work has implications for extrapolating satellite altimetry data back in time using solely tide gauge data, is not good, especially in the Pacific region. These findings are also important for ocean and atmosphere models to simulate these relationships.
References Dorandeu, J. and P.Y. Le Traon (1999) Effects of Global Mean Atmospheric Pressure Variation on Mean Sea Level Changes from TOPEX/Poseidon. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 16 (9) 1279-1283. Firing. Y.L. Merrifield, M.A., T.A. Schroeder and B. Qiu. (2004) Interdecadal Sea Level Fluctuations at Hawaii. Journal of Physical Oceanography (11) 2514-2524. Holgate, S.J. and P.L. Woodworth (2004) Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s, Geophysical Research 31 (7): Art. No. L07305. Jacobs G.A, H.E., Hurlburt, J.C. Kindle, E.J. Metzger, J.L Mitchell, W.J. Teague and A.J. Wallcraft (1994) Decade-Scale Trans-Pacific Propagation and Warming Effects of an El-Nio anomaly. Nature 370 (6488): 360-363. Shaw, A.G.P., Tsimplis, M.N., Bergant, K., Garcia, M.J., German, V., Kjaer, N., Pasaric, M., Plag, H-P., Martinez Benjamin, J.J., Martinez-Garcia, M., Susnik, M., Tel, E., Raicich F. and Yildiz, H. Characterising Regional Sea Level Variability On The Basis Of Quality Controlled Tide Gauge Records (Submitted2005). Sturges, W. (1987) Large-Scale Coherence of Sea Level at Very Low Frequencies. Journal of Physical Oceanography 17 (11): 2084-2094. Tsimplis M.N. and S.A. Josey (2001) Forcing of the Mediterranean Sea by atmospheric oscillations over the North Atlantic Geophysical Research Letters 28 (5): 803-806 Wakelin, S. L., P. L. Woodworth, R. A. Flather, J.A. Williams. (2003) Sea-level dependence on the NAO over the NW European Continental Shelf. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(7), Art. No. 1403. White, N.J., J.A. Church and J.M Gregory (205) Coastal and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000. Geophysical Research Letters 32 (1): Art. No. L01601. Woolf, D.K., A.G.P. Shaw and M.N, Tsimplis (2003) The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Sea Level Variability in the North Atlantic Region. The Global Atmosphere and Ocean System. 9(4): 145-167.

SOI PDO NAO MOI TPI

A1

A11 NB1

NB5 M1

M5 P1

P18 IN1-3

SOI PDO No. of Tide NAO Gauges MOI TPI

Figure 1(a) Global map showing the position of tide gauges with records longer than 20 years that were used to extract the first EOF time series. The red and green dots indicate regions for which coherency in the sea level signal was found using EOF analysis. The green dots indicated tide gauges that were not suitable because of the lack of data. Thus the red dots were the used in this study. For clarity, in detailed map of Europe is also shown (b). The regional sea level indices were divided into five large regions, A (Atlantic), NB (North Sea and Baltic Sea), (b), M (Mediterranean Sea, (b), P (Pacific Ocean), IN (Indian Ocean).

(c)
P1 M5 M1 NB5 NB1 A11

(d)
P1 M5 M1 NB5 NB1 A11

A1

A1

A11 NB1

NB5 M1

M5 P1

P18 IN1-3

A1

0.8

1.0

Tele-connections Across Ocean Basins (Figure 2a) +ve r between Mediterranean Sea and Nova Scotia +ve r between Bay of Bengal and western central Pacific -ve r between western Australia and both central Pacific and the mid latitudes of the eastern Pacific Ocean +ve r between western Australia to both northeast and southern Australia -ve r Hawaiian Islands and Iceland +ve r north east Pacific with both central and north Atlantic Ocean -ve r North Japan with both Iceland and North Sea -ve r between Mediterranean and the north area of the Gulf of Mexico Climate Indices (Figure 2a) European sea level is well correlated with the NAO MOI appears to be a better descriptor of sea level variability around the coasts of Europe. -ve r between SOI with both central and eastern Pacific Ocean +ve r between SOI and the south west Pacific Ocean +ve r between PDO with the mid to high latitudes in the Pacific basin +ve r between TPI with South Atlantic and Drakes Passage -ve r between TPI with New Zealand and Southern Australia

Acknowledgements We will like to thank the European Sea Level Service Research Infrastructure project (ESEAS_RI, contract EVR1-CT-2002-40024). We would also like to thank Kay Suselj for providing the MOI data