DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011
MARKET S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION SHORT 2 Sell limit 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.4420 1.5910

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

1.3660/1.3410 (Entered on 06/07/2011) 1.5810/1.5550/1.5345 Await fresh signal. Mildly bearish bias while under 0.8521. Await Buy Trade Setup (Neutral).

1.4305 1.6010

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY

SHORT 3 Sell limit 3 SHORT 1 Sell limit 3 SHORT 1

1.0630 128.00 117.70 0.8900 1.1805

1.0390/1.0205/0.9700 (Entered on 11/07/2011) 127.00/124.65/122.36 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 1.1000 (Entered on 11/07/2011) Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal.

1.0780 129.00 115.70 0.9005 1.1805

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/GBP EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com

MIG BANK Tel +41 32 722 81 00

14, rte des Gouttes dOr Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
Breaks out from major pattern.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011

Hit first objective at 1.3970. Stop left at 1.4305 for now. EUR/USD has resumed its bearish activity and has broken out of the allimportant triangle pattern consolidation. The move follows last Fridays worse-than-expected NFP figures which paradoxically pushed the US dollar higher, as market sentiment refocused back onto risk aversion and a flight to traditional quality/safe haven assets. Our short position favours sustained weakness to unlock an accelerated impulsive (wave 3) into 1.3670 (61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 uptrend). Only a sustained close above the Trichet high at 1.4653 and most importantly 1.4711/30 will lead us to re-evaluate. EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Inversely, the US dollar index has broken above 76.36 (23rd May high), to confirm a multi-month w-shaped base pattern for an extension into 7701 and 78.03 (50%/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 Decline). Further upside scope is also being supported by increased long positions on our COT liquidity, which has been positive for the last 6 weeks. SPECIAL REPORT : EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
Please select link: REPORT
VIDEO

EUR/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 2 at 1.4420, Objs: 1.3660/1.3410, Stop: 1.4305

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD
Consolidation resolves lower.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011

GBP/USD has relapsed after forming a lower high at 1.6442. Losses have clearly broken under weekly channel support. Coupled with the push under 1.6058, weakens the outlook further. The period of consolidation that we noted yesterday in the daily timeframe has since broken lower, turning the outlook decidedly negative in both the short and longer-term timeframes. A minor squeeze higher is now sought for the creation of a lower high and a continuation of weakness. Further weakness has the potential to initially target 1.5345 over coming sessions. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 1.5910, Objs: 1.5810/1.5550/1.5345, Stop: 1.6010.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
Another failed breakout.
Long stopped.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011

USD/JPY has suffered yet another failed breakout above our second trigger point at 81.40 (multi-week triangle pattern). We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more cautious footing, watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bullcycle. To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close above strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high). USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto 88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).

USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011 Trade dominated by movements in EUR/CHF.
USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge, after failing to gain momentum last week following the minor beak over wedge resistance. Movements in USD/CHF are being driven by the return to weakness seen in EUR/CHF due to the widening of periphery government bond spreads versus bunds. This now warns of a return to, and potential break of, wedge resistance. We look for a break back over 0.8521 before initiating longs, with a bias in the interim for a possible re-test of weekly wedge support.

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Mildly bearish bias while under 0.8521.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011 Unwinding from oversold conditions.
USD/CAD is unwinding from oversold conditions, amidst key support near 0.9624/05 (61.8%/66% retrace of the April uptrend). Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rates expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915 (38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA). Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by a failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern. Indeed the bulls must recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing high/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March high) and 1.0000 (parity level).

USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Trade Setup (Neutral).

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011 Reactive bounce still weighed by exhaustion signal.
AUD/USDs reactive bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), is still weighed down by a DeMark exhaustion signal last seen at the May peak. We are monitoring the bearish signal and have opened a short position. Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark indicator has also flagged exhaustion sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime, our downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), to unlock extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar, after its recovery failed into key resistance at 1.3169 (61.8% Fib). The pair

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath this level. The Aussie dollar has also weakend against the Japanese yen, after triggering a daily reversal pattern. The bearish signal is now pushing back lower into the multi-week triangle pattern. We continue to favour a potential downside breakout, which would signal further risk aversion in the financial community.

AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 3: 1.0630, Obj: 1.0390/1.0205/0.9700. Stop: 1.0780

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY
Next targets daily channel support.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011

GBP/JPY has tested below the 61.8% retrace of the 122.36-140.03 rise seen earlier in the year. This now alters the near-term structure in favour of a relapse towards 122.36, thus also greatly weakening the longer-term recovery structure that we had previously expected. Focus remains on the daily bear channel that has been in place for the last three months. A lower high is now potentially in place at 130.85 for a continuation of near-term weakness. Yesterdays push back under 128.17 suggests a return to the daily channel GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP support currently at 124.65. With this in mind a lower high is now sought.

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 128.00, Objs: 127.00/124.65/122.36, Stop: 129.00

www.migbank.com

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011 Breaks under the 200 DMA and the platform near 113.42/50.
Stop for the final unit moved to 115.70. Final objective moved to 105.44. EUR/JPY has likely completed an extended recovery from the 2010 low at 105.44. Yesterday saw a break under the platform near 113.42/50 which also constituted a push under the 200 day moving average The structure present since 117.90 now warns of the potential for a shallow retrace and a further extension lower back towards 105.44. This is bolstered by the continuing widening of periphery spreads versus bunds. We also note that yesterdays sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 week moving average. This turns the longer-term outlook negative again. Although further losses are anticipated we are lowering our stop on our final short unit to 115.70 to protect a portion of the profit already generated.

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 115.70.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011 Under 0.8848 weakens near-term bullish structure.
Long stopped. Looking to sell. EUR/GBP has suffered in the same manner as other EUR crosses given the stresses experienced in the periphery bond markets. With this in mind, the break higher that occurred at the beginning of the month to 0.9084 may mark the end of the recovery structure seen since 0.8285, with a return to the 200 day moving average now favoured. This currently lies near 0.8665. It is thus our strategy to wait for a bounce higher to evolve for the creation of a lower high and the resumption of weakness. A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term bullish structure.

EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011 Under 1.1806 negates multiple bullish signals.
First and second objectives met. Stop left at 1.1805 and final objective moved to 1.1000. EUR/CHF had exhibited a number of bullish reversal signals in different timeframes. All of these were negated yesterday with the push under 1.1806. Given the continued upside pressure in periphery spreads versus bunds, we continue to view the downside as being vulnerable. With this in mind we next target 1.1565 and then potentially lower towards 1.1000.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

www.migbank.com

Short 1 at 1.1805, Obj: 1.1000, Stop: 1.1805.

11

GOLD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011 Unwinding recent weakness within a volatile range.
Short stopped. Gold is now unwinding its recent fall, which still remains within a larger volatile range. We continue to expect this counter reaction to be limited and likely to resume the already broad weakness playing out in Gold priced in other key rates, such as Euro, Swiss franc, and commodity driven rates such as the Aussie dollar & South African rand. The larger corrective move on Gold in US dollar terms, remains pressured by a weekly DeMark exhaustion signal, which was followed by a bearish engulfing reversal from a multi-year bull-channel. Bears target 1474.69 (38.2% Fib) and 1442.92 (50% Fib), with overshoot

Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

risk into 1422.30/1411.13 (200-day MA/61.8% Fib). It is also worth continuing to monitor Golds COT liquidity readings which is weakening back into a key structural level. Keep in mind that a sustained break of this area would threaten 1.5 years of sizeable long gold positions. Bulls need to sustain gains above 1553.65 (06 June high), in order to offer a recapture of the all-time high at 1577.57. Only a close above there would confirm a resumption of the major uptrend into the next psychological glass-ceiling at 1600.00.

Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Resistance around 38.80 caps.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011

Silver remains capped beneath resistance around 38.80 and continues to favour a resumption lower. (Note, the prior correction had fallen just over 30% in only 5 days, which may have signalled a peak in global risk appetite). We continue to look for potential moves into 32.3479/32.3125 (38.2% Fib1999 bull market/12th May swing low), offering a downside extension into 31.7819 (24th Feb low) and 30.0000 (old psychological level).

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact. We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.

Bulls need to push back above 38.8475 (26th May high), then 39.4825 (11th May high), in order to revive a promising recovery into 40.0000 (old psychological level).

Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Await signal.

www.migbank.com

13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

12 July, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15