Daily Market Technicals

FX Outlook

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

EUR/USD holds 200 day ma on a closing basis

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/USD Chart
Comment: EUR/USD has eroded but so far not closed below the 200 day ma at 1.3909 and the 50% retracement support at 1.3900. While this may prompt a small rebound intraday we look for this to be tepid and favour losses back to 1.3685, the 2010-2011 uptrend. Intraday resistance lies 1.4024 (200 week ma), 1.4073 (16th June low) ahead of 1.4166 (previous support line should now revert to resistance). We expect that rallies should now remain capped by 1.4255. Todays trade: Short 1.4035, add 1.4070, 1.4160, place stops 1.4255. Cover 1.3700 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Break below range targets 1.3685 Medium term (1-3 months): To remain below the 1.50/1.5145 region. Target 1.3685/48 (2010-2011 uptrend and 55 week ma). Then 1.20 200 day ma at 1.3909 Current Price: 1.3998

Support 1.3909/00** 1.3838 1.3752/30* 1.3697 1.3685**

Reason 200 day ma 12 July low 11 March low th 20 October low uptrend

Resistance 1.4073* 1.4166/83 1.4255 1.4379* 1.4521

Reason 16 June low Prev resist line Fibo 55 dma Resist line
th

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

USD/CHF neutral to negative below .8554

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily USD/CHF Chart
Comment: USD/CHF there is no change. The market remains capped by .8551/54 level (early May low and the 31st of May high and 55 day ma). We note Fridays price action was an outside day to the downside, and further work is needed to stabilise. Dips will find support at .8276, last weeks low. While we believe this to be the end stage of the down move we are unable to rule a stab to a new low of .8222/00. Only a close above .8554 would negate extreme downside pressure, targeting initially .8630 (Fibo) and then .8850 (38.2% retracement of the move lower seen this year). Todays trade: Square. Reattempt tiny longs, stops below .8275 and cover .8450. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): .Attempting to base Medium term (1-3 months): Target at .8400-.8351 has been met, look for signs of stabilisation, below here targets .8200/.8143. Current Price: 0.8317

55 day ma at .85515

Support .8327** .8376** .8222 .8200 .8000

Reason 7 June low Recent low TD support P&F target Psychological

th

Resistance .8523 .8554** .85515*, .8630 .8852** .8895

Reason Friday high Early May low 55 dma March low th 24 May high

RSI diverging

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

GBP/USD Held initial test of Fibo support at 1.5779

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily GBP/USD Chart
Comment: GBP/USD has executed a 38.2% retracement of the entire move seen 2010-2011. This is located at 1.5779. While it is possible that this prompt a small rebound, we would expect this to remain tepid, the market has recently eroded the 55 week ma at 1.5905 and closed below the May low at 1.5937 and this is regarded as negative. Intraday rallies should find interim resistance at 1.6048 and be capped by 1.6158 (neckline). We target 1.5510/00 minimum (38.2% retracement of move up from 2010). Then 1.5380/47, which is the measurement down from the top and the December low. Todays trade: Short average 1.6170, lower stops to 1.6170. Cover 1.5555. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Negative below 2 month downtrend Medium term (1-3 months): Neutral to negative looking for 1.7050 to hold the topside. Target 1.5510/00. Measurement down from top is 1.5381.
Support 1.5905* 1.5779* 1.5752** 1.5708/00** 1.5650* Reason 55 week ma Fibo th 25 January low Oct 2009 low October low Resistance 1.6048 1.6158*, 1.6230 1.6260/62** 1.6260 Reason 200 day ma Neckline Minor Fibo High 22 June 55 dma

Current Price: 1.5934

Resistance line at 1.6274

Neckline at 1.6158

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

USD/JPY spike lower over-extended allow for consolidation

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily USD/JPY Chart
Comment: USD/JPY has eroded the 79.72/57 support area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-April advance and May low) and spiked down towards 78.23, the 78.6% retracement this is the last defense for the 76.25 March low. The move looks over-extended near term and we would allow for some near term consolidation. Rallies face tough overhead resistance at 80.26/49 previous support line should now act as resistance ahead of the 81.53/82.05, the 55 and 200 day ma. Todays trade: Attempt minor shorts 80.40/60, stops 81.00. Cover 78.25. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Focus on support Medium term (1-3 month): Neutral. Must clear downtrend at 82.92 for any recovery to be viable. Current Price: 79.46

Support 78.48 78.24* 76.25** 77.00 76.25**

Reason Fibo March low

Resistance 80.00, 80.85* 80.96 81.53* 82.21/23** 82.05*

Reason Minor Fibo Cloud 55 dma May high 200 dma

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

EUR/JPY has tested but not closed below 110.10, allow for consolidation
Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/JPY Chart
Comment: EUR/JPY remains under pressure following its collapse below its 200 day ma at 114.09, risk remains on the downside Support at 110.10 has been eroded, but the market has not registered a close below here and we suspect will consolidate near term. This was the 78.6% retracement of the move up from March, however it should be noted that utilising the consolidation between 117.90 to 113.40 as a measurement lower, targets 108.90. Rallies will find tough intraday resistance at 113.20/114.09 and while capped here will remain directly offered. Todays trade: Short 111.75, add 112.90, 113.40. Stops over 114.80. Cover 109.00 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Break down from range targets 110.10 then 108.90 Medium term (1-3 months): Based at 106.50/105.45. Targets 123.33, then 130.00. 200 day moving average is at 114.09 Current Price: 111.25

Support 110.77 110.10** 109.58/69 108.90** 108.33**

Reason 4 Feb low Fibo This weeks lows Meas target Nov 2010 low
th

Resistance 112.35, 113.20 113.40* 113.50** 114.09** 114.80

Reason Fibo 16 May low June low 200 dma Fibo

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

EUR/GBP focus remains on supports

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/GBP Chart
Comment: EUR/GBP has sold off towards but is currently attempting to stabilise ahead of .8723/12, this is the 16th June low and the 78.6% retracement of the move up from May. After a relentless decline over the past 7 days, the market should see a retracement intraday. However we look for rallies to remain capped by .8855, 8905. Below .8723/12, failure here would target the 200 day ma at .8665 and introduce potential to .8515, the 4 year uptrend. Todays trade: Sell rallies to .8855, .8900, stops over .8905. Cover 8723/12. Reinstate shorts below here. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Target .8723/12. Medium term (1-3 months): View neutralising Current Price: .8772

Support line .8736

Support .8736 .87235** .8712 .8675** .8665 Reason Support line th Low 16 June Fibo th 12 May low 200 day ma Resistance .8842 .8900/05* .8941** .8977 .9042** Reason 55 day ma Fibo Oct 2010 high June high May high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

EUR/CHF move heading to one year down channel.

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Weekly EUR/CHF Chart
Comment: EUR/CHF has met and exceeded its measured target of 1.16 (taken from the break down of consolidation pattern 1.3200-1.2400 that developed from Jan to May 2011).It has sold off to chart a new low of 1.1555. We remain unable to rule out an extension to 1.1475. We also have a point and figure target of 1.1510 and expect to see the market attempt to reverse in this zone. Beyond 1.1475 we have few further targets. Usually this leads me to assume that somewhere around 1.1555 - but no further than 1.1475 we should see reversal. Intraday resistance lies 1.1808, 1.1865, and should remain capped here for an immediate negative bias to remain. Todays trade: Sell 1.1700, add 1.1790, and place stops over 1.1865. Cover 1.1510/1.1475. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Negative below 1.2400 pivot Medium term (1-3 months): Market heading to base of one year channel at 1.1475 Current Price 1.1693

Base of channel at 1.1475/76

Support 1.1580 1.1555 1.1500/10 1.1475** 1.1445

Reason Recent low P+F target Channel Fibo exten

Resistance 1.1750/90 1.1808** 1.1865 1.1946* 1.2000

Reason Fibo June low Fibo 16 June low

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes; Bullion Weekly Technicals; Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals; technical contribution to the Emerging Markets Bi-Weekly; Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

Explanation:

This technical analysis report is based primarily on Dow theory and is using bar and candlestick charts. Support and resistance levels with no asterisk denote minor levels. One asterisk denotes an area of reasonable support or resistance, two stars are for strong areas of support or resistance. Uptr = Uptrend, connecting 3 low points. SL = Support line. Support lines have only 2 points of contact and are not as important as uptrends. Dtr= Downtrend, connecting 3 high points. RL = Resistance line. Resistance lines connect only 2 high points and are not as important as downtrends. Fibo = Fibonacci retracement we use the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Fibox = Fibonacci extension we use the 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8% and 261.8% levels. Pivot point = an area on the chart which acts as both support and resistance. St = Short term level (for example St Fibonacci retracement refers to the nearest highs and lows) Lt = Long term level (for example Lt Fibonacci retracement refers to longer term highs and lows) 55 dma = 55 day (simple) moving average 200 wma = 200 week (simple) moving average

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

Disclaimer
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011

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Karen Jones
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011