Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: ASEAN, the ASEAN Regional Forum and China Carlyle A. Thayer July 14, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] WewouldlikeyourassessmentoftheASEANRegionalForummeetingtobeheldin Bali,Indonesiathisweek. Q1.TheASEANRegionalForumisexpectedtobedominatedbythediscussionsover the escalating tension between China and the Philippines as well as China and Vietnam over South China Sea. What role could the ASEAN, which is a multilateral body,playinresolvingabilateralproblem? ANSWER:TheSouthChinaSeaterritorialandsovereigntydisputesisnotabilateral matter.In2002ChinaandASEANnegotiatedandsignedaDeclarationonConductof Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). There are aspects of territorial disputes that may be settled bilaterally, but to be effective a multilateral settlement involving maritime powers who are stakeholders in the security of the South China Sea is necessary. ChinaisalreadyengagingmultilaterallywithASEANthroughthemechanismknown astheJointWorkingGrouptoImplementtheDOC.ThepurposeoftheJointWorking GroupistoadoptasetofguidelinestoimplementtheDOC.Ifthetwosidescould agree on the guidelines they would serve as the framework for a number of confidence building and cooperative measures. At the moment the Joint Working Group is stymied by Chinas refusal to allow any mention in the guidelines that ASEANmemberswouldmeetfirsttoworkoutacommonpositionandthenengage withChina. ASEAN consists of four claimant states (Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei)andsixnonclaimantstates(Cambodia,Indonesia,Laos,Myanmar,Singapore andThailand).ASEANcouldbeeffectiveifitcouldadoptconsensusonitsapproach to South China Sea issues and present a united front to China. The forthcoming ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, which convenes before the ARF, is an opportunity to demonstrateunityandsolidarityindealingwithChina. TheASEANRegionalForumisnothingmorethanasecuritydialogueforum.Itmakes nodecisions,andadoptsnobindingcommitments.ThebestthatASEANcanhopeto achieveistogarnersupportforitspositiontoengagemultilaterallywithChinafrom other ARF members. This would add political pressure on China to accommodate. Thisisanecessarybutnotsufficientapproach.

2 ASEAN needs to gain the support of its dialogue partners. At least eight of its ten dialoguepartnerssupportASEANtoacertainextent:theUnitedStates,Japan,South Korea,Australia,NewZealand,Canada,EuropeanUnion,andIndia.Russiasposition isunclear.ChinaremainsisolatedexceptthatASEANmembersCambodia,Myanmar, LaosandThailandhaveshownan inclinationto duck for coveronthe South China Seaissue. ASEANneedstofollowupinitsASEANPlus1meetingwithChina.Ifnoprogressis made, ASEAN should raise the matter at the East Asia Summit in Jakarta in November. Q2.Also,whatshouldASEANdotoexpeditethedevelopmentofacodeofconduct ofpartiesintheSouthChinaSea? ANSWER: ASEAN and China first need to reach agreement on the DOC guidelines. There are separate discussions underway to adopt a more binding code of conduct.Nomatterwhatnewwordingmightbeinsertedintothecodeofconductit willnothaveanygreatereffectthanthepresentDOCunlessitisabindingtreaty. ASEAN should continue to press China on this matter. But to lend weight to its approach,ASEANshouldconsideradoptingitsownSoutheastAsiaMaritimeCodeof ConductTreaty(SEAMCOCT)alongthelinesoftheTreatyofAmityandCooperation andtheSoutheastAsianNuclearWeaponFreeZoneTreaty.OncetheSEAMCOCTis adopted it should be open to accession by external states including China. The initiation of negotiations on a Southeast Asia Maritime Code of Conduct Treaty wouldaddpressureonChinatodemonstratethatitsupportsarulesbasedsystem.