Daily Market Technicals

FX Outlook

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

EUR/USD looking for rebounds to remain tepid

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/USD Chart
Comment: EUR/USD held relatively steady yesterday above 1.4000. However our negative bias is unchanged and will remain entrenched while below the downtrend at 1.4487. Initial resistance lies at 1.4282, last Thursdays high and 1.4330, the 55 day ma. Focus is on its 200 day ma at 1.39135. Once a drop through last Tuesdays low at 1.3837 has been seen, we will favour losses back to 1.3717/1.3680, the 2010-2011 uptrend line and 55 week ma. Todays trade: Short 1.4100, add 1.4250 and leave the stop at 1.4300. Cover 1.3750. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Break below range targets 1.3717. Medium term (1-3 months): To remain below the 1.5000/1.5145 region. Targets 1.3717/1.3680 (2010-2011 uptrend and 55 week ma), then 1.20. Downtrend at 1.4487 Current Price: 1.4108

Support 1.3968* 1.39135** 1.3838/37** 1.3752* 1.3717**

Reason May trough 200 dma th 12 July low th 11 March low Uptrend
th

Resistance 1.4259/82 1.4330* 1.4487** 1.4580** 1.4647

Reason Last wk high 55 dma Resist line Early July high Recent high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

USD/CHF stabilising at the .8040/00 support zone

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily USD/CHF Chart
Comment: USD/CHF no change, the market is showing signs of attempting to stabilise at the .8040/00 support area. This is where a vertical Point & Figure target, the 100% Fibonacci extension of the January-to-March decline, projected lower from the May peak, and the major .8000 mark come together. As such we look for it to hold and provoke reversal. Resistance lies at the .8276 June low. Further resistance is seen around the July 6th .8364 low and at Tuesdays .8400 high with more being found along the 2011 channel resistance line at .8439 and along the 55 day moving average at .8513. Only a close above the early May .8554 low would negate the current downside pressure. Todays trade: Longs reinstated at .8040 with a stop at .7940 and target at .8325. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Is still attempting to base. Medium term (1-3 months): Look for signs of stabilisation around the .80 mark. Current Price: 0.8181

Support .8040 .8034** .8015 .8000** .7811*

Reason P&F target Low 100% Fibo ext. Psych. support Channel SL

Resistance .8200 .8276* .8327* .8364 .8400

Reason June low Early June low th 6 July low th 12 July high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

GBP/USD market neutralising near term

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily GBP/USD Chart
Comment: GBP/USD last week saw a decent bounce from the 38.2% retracement support at 1.5778. This was a strong rebound and it is possible that the market has neutralised short term. However the rally is stalling ahead of the 3 month downtrend at 1.6229. This resistance is reinforced by the 55 day ma at 1.6219 and provided that it continues to cap, a slip back towards 1.5778 low is likely Medium term we continue to target the 50% retracement of the 2010-11 uptrend at 1.5487 and then the 1.5381/47 December low and measurement down from the top. Above 1.6229 would delay this outlook for a deeper retracement to 1.6377 then 1.6539, where we would again expect failure. Todays trade: Short at 1.6150 cover at market Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Negative below two month downtrend line. Medium term (1-3 months): Neutral to negative looking for 1.7050 to hold the topside. Target 1.5487. Measurement down from top is 1.5381. Resistance line at 1.6238 Current Price: 1.6091

Support 1.6050/46* 1.6000* 1.5925* 1.5881* 1.5784/78**

Reason 200 dma&50% ret Psych support 55 wma 61.8% Fibonacci Fibo

Resistance 1.6193 1.6211* 1.6230/38** 1.6262** 1.6277

Reason Last weeks high 38.2% Fibonacci 55 dma & RL nd 22 June high Early Feb. high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

USD/JPY continues to consolidate, risk on downside remains

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily USD/JPY Chart
Comment: USD/JPY charted a tight range, leaving a negative bias intact. The market last week sold off towards and recovered from the 78.50 zone. Also found in this vicinity 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-April advance at 78.23. Ideally this will hold the downside. This is the last defence for the 76.25 March low. The market is consolidating near term, but a negative bias remains. Minor resistance is found between the May and June lows and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 79.57/88 and around the psychological 80.00 mark. Todays trade: Long at 78.66 with stops at 78.00. Cover at 79.55. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Is focused on support. Medium term (1-3 month): Neutral. Must clear 4 year downtrend at 82.75 for any recovery to be viable. Support is seen around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 78.23 Current Price: 79.07

Support 78.45 78.23* 76.25** 75.00* 73.90

Reason Wednesdays low 78.6% Fibonacci March low Psych. support 30 min P&F target

Resistance 79.57/88* 80.00* 80.85 81.41 81.49*

Reason May/Jun low&Fib Psych. resistance Cloud 55 dma. Current July high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

EUR/JPY under pressure

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/JPY Chart
Comment: EUR/JPY no change, last week the market touched but remain capped by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-April advance at 112.93 leaving immediate bias on the downside. We see a retest of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 110.10 Support below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and Tuesdays low at 110.10/109.58 is seen at the January and March 106.83/50 troughs. Todays trade: Short at 112.30, add at 113.40. Stops over 114.80. Cover at 109.60. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Break down from range targets 110.10, then 108.90. Medium term (1-3 months): Based at 106.50/105.45. Current Price: 111.57

Support 110.10** 109.58 108.90** 108.33** 107.15*

Reason 78.6% Fibonacci Tuesdays low Measure target Nov. 2010 low support line

Resistance 112.93* 113.33 113.40/50* 114.03** 114.92

Reason 61.8% Fibonacci 55 week ma May & June lows 200 dma 50% retracement

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

EUR/GBP held .8700

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/GBP Chart
Comment: EUR/GBP has sold off to and is showing signs of recovery from .8700. The market looks set to consolidate further and we would allow for a near term rebound. Rallies will need to clear the 55 day ma and near term resistance at .8834/50 in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure and allow for a move back towards .8977 (mid June high). Failure at .8700 will re-engage the 200 day moving average at .8666 and introduce potential to .8612 then .8525, the four year uptrend line. Todays trade: Square. Attempt tiny long on dips to .8712, stop .8700. Cover .8834/50, if square reinstate shorts here stops over .8895 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Target .8723. Medium term (1-3 months): View has been neutralised. Current Price: .87815

Support .8723** .8712 .8675* .8666* .8629*

Reason 16 June low Fibo th 12 May low 200 dma 5 month SL

th

Resistance .8800/15 .8834 .8869* .8941** .8977

Reason 55 dma 38.2% Fibonacci Oct 2010 high June high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

EUR/CHF consolidating
Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Monthly EUR/CHF Chart
Comment: EUR/CHF looks in some need of consolidation. It did not maintain downside pressure yesterday and has closed near the days highs. We also note the close proximity to the Fibonacci extension of 1.1358 to yesterdays low of 1.1365 (see monthly chart). Of more concern to us is that everyone seems to be bearish of this market and I can only ask if everyone has sold it already, who is left to sell? Extreme caution is warranted. Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.1555. Above here it should see recovery to 1.1770, but the market will remain directly offered below the June low at 1.1808. Below 1.1358 we have 1.1290 (point and figure target from 240 minute chart) then 1.10. Todays trade: Short 1.1505, place stops over 1.1555 and cover on dips to 1.1450/1.1365. attempt tiny longs stops below 1.1355 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Negative below the 1.20. Medium term (1-3 months): Target 1.1290, 1.1000. Current Price 1.1493

Support 1.1490 1.1410 1.1365** 1.1358 1.1290

Reason P & F target Low Fibo extension 240 min P+F

Resistance 1.1555 1.1672 1.1770 1.1808** 1.1946*

Reason Minor Fibo Minor Fibo Minor Fibo June low Mid-June low

Fibonacci extension to 1.1358

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes; Bullion Weekly Technicals; Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals; technical contribution to the Emerging Markets Bi-Weekly; Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

Explanation:

This technical analysis report is based primarily on Dow theory and is using bar and candlestick charts. Support and resistance levels with no asterisk denote minor levels. One asterisk denotes an area of reasonable support or resistance, two stars are for strong areas of support or resistance. Uptr = Uptrend, connecting 3 low points. SL = Support line. Support lines have only 2 points of contact and are not as important as uptrends. Dtr= Downtrend, connecting 3 high points. RL = Resistance line. Resistance lines connect only 2 high points and are not as important as downtrends. Fibo = Fibonacci retracement we use the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Fibox = Fibonacci extension we use the 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8% and 261.8% levels. Pivot point = an area on the chart which acts as both support and resistance. St = Short term level (for example St Fibonacci retracement refers to the nearest highs and lows) Lt = Long term level (for example Lt Fibonacci retracement refers to longer term highs and lows) 55 dma = 55 day (simple) moving average 200 wma = 200 week (simple) moving average

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

Disclaimer
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011

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Karen Jones
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 19 July 2011