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AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Spices Ends Higher On Fresh Buying

Premium
segment

www.capitalvia.com

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

J E E R A ( J U LY )

G U A R S E E D ( J U LY )

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

JEERA EDGES HIGHER ON EXPORT DEMAND

Expert
Opinion

GUARSEED EXTENDS GAIN ON EXPORT DEMAND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Jeera futures continued to add to the gains of the previous week owing to fresh overseas enquires and settled 1.78% higher. Turkey has not left with enough quality crop due to rains in the last week of May causing damage to the standing crop. Further there are reports of fresh enquires from China from India. This is supporting prices in the domestic market. Arrivals in the domestic mandi stood at 14,000 bags while off takes stood at 16000 bags on Thursday. Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. Jeera prices in the intraday are likely to trade firm due to fresh export enquiries from overseas buyers particularly China. In medium to long term (August onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices will also take cues from the carryover stocks of Jeera with India. This season carryover stocks are expected to remain at the lower side owing to lower production. This is likely to support prices.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar seed and Guar gum futures extended gains of the previous week owing to robust export demand and declining stocks of Guar in the physical markets. Guar futures hit new historical highs of Rs.4,260/qtl. Reports of probable decline in the acreage in Rajasthan also supported prices. The government has targeted an area of 27 lakh hectares as compared to 30 lakh hectares in 2010. Rise in the exports for the period of April 2010 to February 2011 also supported prices to remain firm. Delay in advancement of monsoon over major Guar growing regions of Rajasthan was supporting Guar prices since the end of June. Lower stocks of Guar seed as well as Guar gum as a result of robust export demand are also supporting bullish market sentiments. Guar complex may witness very volatile sessions in the coming days due to ongoing monsoon season. Guar futures may trade firm owing to robust export demand. However, good rainfall in the major guar growing districts of Rajasthan in coming days might cap the gains in the short term. Also, area sown up till date in Rajasthan in irrigated area is better compared to the previous year. This is likely to weigh on the prices further. In the long term (September), robust export demand for Indian Guar gum from Oil companies may support Guar prices. However, in the coming months (July August), rainfall distribution over Northwest India would be an important factor to be watched for as the price movement during this period mainly depends on monsoon.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT


Export demand Low carryover stocks

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Jeera did our target of 15900 above the level of 15500 and even closed above it. Jeera was in a continuous uptrend last week and price was not sustaining at lower levels. For the next week Jeera July has resistance at 17100 and support at 16100.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a consolidated phase and one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains below the level of 16100 then we can expect the level of 15700, and if it sustains above 17100 then we can see the level of 17500.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT


Good export demand Decline in acreage

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guarseed did our target of 4260 above the level of 4200 and even closed at its weekly high. Guarseed is in a bullish phase and prices were in a continuous uptrend throughout the last week. For the next week Guarseed has resistance at 4750 and support at 4500.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 4750 we can see the level of 4800, and below 4500 it can touch the level of 4460.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 19831 18045 17394 16259 15608 14473 12687

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 5629 5058 4868 4487 4297 3916 3345

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Weekly Chart

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

SOYABEAN ( A U G U S T )

C H A N A (AUGUST)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

SOYBEAN EDGES HIGHER ON LIMITED STOCKS

Expert
Opinion

CHANA ENDS HIGHER ON IMPROVED DEMAND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
NCDEX August Soybean futures ended higher on third consecutive day due to lower existing carry over stock (around 10-12 lakh bags). However, higher sowing acreage of Soybean may cap higher limit. Sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds increased to 13.35 lakh hectares till July 14, 2011 as compared with 8.75 lakh hectares last during the same period. However, sowing acreage of Soybean increased to 7.58 lakh hectare as compared to 5.02 lakh hectare. Government in it's 4th advance estimate has estimated the record production of India's oilseeds at 31.10 million tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 24.93 Million tonnes in 2009-10. Soybean output is estimated at 12.66 million tonnes against 10.05 million tonnes in 2009-10, Groundnut at 7.54 million tonnes against 5.51 million tonnes in 2009-10, rapeseed and mustard 7.67 million tonnes against 6.41 million tonnes. Arrivals of Soybean was 45,000 bags in Madhya Pradesh (bags=100 quintal). Arrivals in Indore Mandi were around 4,000 bags. Arrivals in Maharashtra were 20,000 bags and Rajasthan 15,000 bags. Soybean prices in Indore mandi (auction) was Rs 2230-2260/quintal. USDA's weekly export sales report released on Thursday, July 14th, 2011 which shows that the export sales for Soybeans came at 4,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 651,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 656,200. Net meal sales came in at 14,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 15,700. Net oil sales came in at 1,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 300 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,600.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana futures gained almost 1% higher on account of improved demand ahead of festive seasons. Demand from the local stockists and reports of decline in the area sown under pulses till 15thJuly 2011 is likely to support prices. There are reports of 0.93 million acres decline in the acreage of peas in Canada to around 2.52 million acres during 2011-12 also supported bullish market sentiments. Area under Chickpeas in Australia during 2011-12 is forecasted to be lower by 44.50% to 3.03 lakh hectares but adequate rainfall in the month of May has raised hopes of better yield. IMD has predicted monsoon to be below normal in the peak growing period, of July and August. Cumulative rainfall till 13th July being pushed 3% below Long Period Average. In Central India and South Peninsula (Kharif Pulses producing regions) monsoon are expected to be 95% of the LPA. Chana futures are likely to trade firm owing to improved demand from local buyers amidst reduced arrivals in the domestic mandi. In the short to medium term, prices will also takes cues from the sowing progress of Kharif Pulses mainly Tur and Urad, which is so far estimated lower and monsoon progress over the major Pulses growing areas. The current predictions with respect to monsoon and sowing acreage point towards downward projections of Kharif output which may provide support to the prices. Chana Prices may gain by Rs. 100-150 from the current levels.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT


Limited stocks Improved demand

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Soybean did our target of 2400 above the level of 2370 and even closed above it. Initially last week Soybean opened down but we saw good short covering in the later part of the week and price has sustained above the important level of 2400. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2465 and support at 2400.

STRATEGY
For next week in Soybean one should go for buy on lower level strategy. If it sustains above 2465 we can see the level of 2495 and on the downside if it sustains below 2400 level we can see Soybean at 2360 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT


Improved demand Decrease in sowing area

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Chana did our target of 3050 above the level of 3000 and even closed above it. Last week Chana was not sustaining at lower levels and we saw good buying coming at every dip. For the next week Chana has resistance at 3100 and support at 2950.

STRATEGY
For next week in Chana one should go for buy on lower levels strategy. If it sustains above 3100 we can see the level of 3150 and on the downside if it sustains below the level of 2950 we can see Chana at 2905 level.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2673 2534 2485 2395 2346 2256 2117

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3340 3174 3117 3008 2951 2842 2676

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Weekly Chart

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch


Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX MCX

19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 20-SEPT- 11 19-AUG -11 30-APR-12 19-AUG -11 30-JULY-11 13-AUG-11

Jeera Pepper Turmeric Guarseed Guargum Chana Soybean Soy Oil Refined Rape Mustard Seed Cotton Seed Oil Cake Gur Potato Kapas Wheat Mentha oil Cardamom

RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/20KGS RS/QUINTAL RS/40KGS RS/QUINTAL RS./20KG RS/QUINTAL RS/KG RS/KG

15432 28385 7280 4096 12875 2933 2310.5 660.9 2955 1336 1033 404.6 657 1208.4 1120.4 842.5

15400 28400 7234 4107 12930 2936 2309.5 658.2 2951 1340 1031 406.4 655 1216 1110 848

16910 29959 7420 4678 14754 3066 2356 670.6 3009 1368 1069 406.6 673.8 1216 1147.3 891.8

15124 27921 6989 4107 12811 2900 2284 652.95 2933 1322 1031 373.5 651 1199 1078.7 845.3

16743 29640 7390 4678 14754 3060 2346.5 669.8 2993 1357 1055.5 375 660 1206 1098.2 880

103761 38130 26810 1738370 113955 1442350

1311 1255 110 582 1879 127 36 8.9 38 21 22.5 -29.6 3 -2.4 -22.2 37.5

19134 10613 8050 167440 11145 230230 108750 163340 237490 72210 11240 35145 4534 36760 2650 2868

141,104.02 84,738.24 14,015.02 655,111.91 141,844.81 381,473.64 59,664.38 538,695.84 193,507.20 32,106.23 3,544.23 3,941.52 8,497.84 4,460.32 151663.49 9983.17
* Turnover Till Friday

301000
886150 716150 261900 21120 110220 7062 41080 40770 13202

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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch


Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
16743 29640 7390 4678 14754 3060 2436.5 669.8 2993 1357 1055.5 375 660 1206 1098.2 880

% Change
8.50 4.42 1.51 14.21 14.59 4.33 3.84 1.35 1.29 1.57 2.18 -7.32 0.46 -0.20 -1.98 4.45

Scripts
JEERA (AUG) PEPPER (AUG) TURMERIC (AUG) GUARSEED (AUG) GUARSGUM (AUG) CHANA (AUG) SOYBEAN (AUG) REFINED SOYA OIL (AUG) MUSTARD (AUG)

R3
19831.00 33249.33 8128.33 5629.67 17992.33 3340.67 2673.83 699.75 3130.33

R2
18045.00 31211.33 7697.33 5058.67 16049.33 3174.67 2534.83 682.10 3054.33 1395.00 1089.83 418.13 684.40 1176.67 918.87

R1
17394.00 30425.67 7543.67 4868.33 15401.67 3117.33 2485.67 675.95 3023.67 1376.00 1072.67 396.57 672.20 1137.43 899.43

PP
16259.00 29173.33 7266.33 4487.67 14106.33 3008.67 2395.83 664.45 2978.33 1349.00 1051.83 385.03 661.60 1108.07 872.37

S1
15608.00 28387.67 7112.67 4297.33 13458.67 2951.33 2346.67 658.30 2947.67 1330.00 1034.67 363.47 649.40 1068.83 852.93

S2
14473.00 27135.33 6835.33 3916.67 12163.33 2842.67 2256.83 646.80 2902.33 1303.00 1013.83 351.93 638.80 1039.47 825.87

S3
12687.00 25097.33 6404.33 3345.67 10220.33 2676.67 2117.83 629.15 2826.33 1257.00 975.83 318.83 616.00 970.87 779.37

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (AUG) 1441.00 GUR (SEPT) POTATO (AUG) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (JULY) CARDAMOM (AUG) 1127.83 451.23 707.20 1245.27 965.37

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity GUARGUM GUARSEED JEERA Expiry Date 19-AUG-11 19-AUG-11 19-AUG-11 Closing Price 14754 4678 16743 % Change 14.59 14.21 8.50

Weekly Losers
Commodity POTATO MENTHA OIL WHEAT Expiry Date 19-AUG-11 30-JULY-11 19-AUG-11 Closing Price 375 1098.2 1206 % Change -7.32 -1.98 -0.20

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