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AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

SPICES ENDS LOWER ON PROFIT BOOKING

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segment

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Week : August 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : August 01st to 05th August 2011

J E E R A(AUGUST)

G U A R S E E D (AUGUST)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

JEERA ENDS LOWER ON PROFIT BOOKING

Expert
Opinion

GUARSEED TUMBLES ON ADDITIONAL MARGIN

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Jeera spot prices were quoted steady to slightly down owing to decline in the offtakes and improved offtakes while Futures after trading firm witnessed profit booking at higher levels and settled around lower freeze of 3.17% on Thursday. Reports of lower exports by 45.8% in the first quarter also weighed on the prices. Arrivals in the domestic mandi on Thursday stood at 15000 bags as compared to 13,000 bags on Wednesday while offtakes reduced to 10,000 bags. Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). Fresh crop arrivals from Syria and Turkey have commenced however, crop is not of good quality. According to Spices Board of India exports of Jeera from India during April 2011- June 2011 stood at 5,750 tonnes as compared to 10,600 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 45.8%. Prices in the intraday are likely to move sideways owing to lacklustre trades at the domestic markets. Any fresh enquires from the local stockists and overseas buyers might control prices from falling sharply. In medium to long term (September onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices will also take cues from the carryover stocks of Jeera with India. This season carryover stocks are expected to remain at the lower side owing to lower production. This is likely to support prices.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar seed and gum futures traded downside last week after an initial positive opening. Special margin of 10 per cent imposed by NCDEX on both seed and gum futures pressurized the prices. Rainfall in Bikaner regions also came as a hope for the Guar growers who were awaiting monsoon to begin sowing which had a negative impact over market sentiments. We expect Guar seed and gum futures to extend its downtrend for the next week. According to IMD updates, rainfall is witnessed in Bikaner regions which might prompt the Guar growers to begin sowing in this major rainfed Guar growing region. The special margin of 10 per cent imposed by NCDEX is likely to affect the prices. According to Rajasthan Agriculture Department, acreage under Guar as on 26th July, 2011 in Rajasthan has declined to 14.07 lakh ha against 14.95 lakh ha during last year same period. However, favourable monsoon progress over northwest India is likely support the Guar sowing in rainfed regions. Monsoon has also progressed well over Haryana, which is the second largest producer of guar. Guar growers in Haryana are expecting the acreage under Guar to increase by 35 per cent to 3.5 lakh ha. Therefore it is likely to have negative impact over market sentiments. According to derivative analysis, decrease in price, open interest and increase in volume indicates a bearish trend.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT


Profit Booking Lower Exports

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Jeera did our target of 15700 below the level of 16100 but did not sustained below that and we saw good bounce back from the important support of 15500 levels. We saw good profit booking last week in Jeera and price was not sustaining at lower levels. For the next week Jeera has resistance at 16350 and support at 15400.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a consolidated phase and one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains below the level of 15400 then we can expect the level of 15100, and if it sustains above 16350 then we can see the level of 16650.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT


Additional Margin Imposed Good Rainfall

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guarseed did our target of 4460 below the level of 4500 and price took support at the important level of 4300. Last week initially Guarseed was not sustaining at higher levels and we saw good profit booking coming at the end of the week. For the next week Guarseed has resistance at 4570 and support at 4240.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 4570 we can see the level of 4650, and below 4240 it can touch the level of 4190.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 18940 17550 16760 16160 15370 14770 13380

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 5584 5064 4774 4544 4254 4024 3504

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Weekly Chart

Week : August 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : August 01st to 05th August 2011

SOYABEAN ( S E P T E M B E R )

C H A N A (AUGUST)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

SOYBEAN DROPS ON GLOBAL CUES

Expert
Opinion

CHANA EXTENDS UPTREND ON EXPORT DEMAND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
NCDEX August Soybean futures ended lower on account of weak overseas market. Lower demand from crushing industry as weakness in edible oil and soy meal also added bearish market sentiments. As per Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), Soybean sowing almost completed in major producing states, Madhya Pradesh covered 54.78 lakh hectares, it is about 98% of targeted area of 56 lakh hectares and Rajasthan crossed targeted area of 7 lakh ha and touched 8.16 lakh ha (117% of targeted area). Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are very near to targeted area (93% and 94% respectively). All over India Soybean sowing acreage is 91.21 lakh hectares as compared to targeted area of 93.19 lakh hectares for this year (98% area covered till date). Crop growth and condition is excellent almost everywhere till date. Arrivals of Soybean was 40,000 bags in Madhya Pradesh (bags=100 quintal). Arrivals in Indore Mandi were around 4,500 bags. Arrivals in Maharashtra were 10,000 bags and Rajasthan 12,000 bags. Soybean prices in Indore mandi (auction) was Rs 2250-2300/quintal. Oilseed complex are expected to trade lower due to better supply and favorable weather conditions for domestic kharif oilseeds are in favour of bears.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana futures witnessed a positive trend last week. Good demand for the commodity across the physical markets supported the spot price to gain from Rs.3000 to Rs.3040 per quintal. The arrivals in the Delhi spot market were around 40 to 50 trucks. Wet weather conditions which affected the pulses sowing in Canadaledtotheprojectionsofdeclineinproductionandexportsby28percenthadapositiveimpactoverIndianmarketsentiments.However,thegainswere limited as the sowing progress of Kharif pulses was good in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. We expect Chana futures to extend its uptrend for the next week. The existing demand for Chana across the physical markets is likely to support the prices to trade higher during the next week. According to Rajasthan Agriculture Department, area sown under Kharif pulses in Rajasthan has declined to 18.57 lakh ha against 19.26 lakh ha during last year same period. Deficit rainfallinmajorpulsegrowingregionsofKarnatakahasaffectedtheKharifpulsessowinginthoseregions.Projectionsaboutdeclineinproductionandexports fromCanadaby28percentarelikelytohaveapositiveimpactoverIndianmarketsentiments.However,goodsowingprogressofKharifpulsesinMaharashtra and Madhya Pradesh is likely to limit the gains. According to derivative analysis, increase in price while decline in volume and open interest indicates bearish trend.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT


Better Supply Fevorable Wether Conditions

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Soybean was initially bullish but price was facing stiff resistance near 2500 levels and we saw some profit booking coming at these levels. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2505 and support at 2400.

STRATEGY
For next week in Soybean one should go for buy on lower level strategy. If it sustains above 2505 we can see the level of 2545 and on the downside if it sustains below 2400 level we can see Soybean at 2370 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT


Good Demand In Physical Market Decline In Production

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Chana did our target of 3150 above the level of 3100 and even closed near to its weekly high. Last week Chana was bullish throughout the week and price was not able to sustain at lower levels. For the next week Chana has resistance at 3200 and support at 3060.

STRATEGY
For next week in Chana one should go for buy on lower levels strategy. If it sustains above 3200 we can see the level of 3250 and on the downside if it sustains below the level of 3060 we can see Chana at 3010 level.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2668 2564 2519 2460 2415 2356 2252

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3376 3247 3203 3118 3074 2989 2860

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Weekly Chart

Week : August 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : August 01st to 05th August 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch


Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX MCX

19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 20-SEP -11 19-AUG -11 20-SEP -11 20-SEP -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 20-SEP-11 20-SEP-11 30-APR-12 19-AUG -11 30-AUG-11 13-AUG-11

Jeera Pepper Turmeric Guarseed Guargum Chana Soybean Soy Oil Refined Rape Mustard Seed Cotton Seed Oil Cake Gur Potato Kapas Wheat Mentha oil Cardamom

RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/20KGS RS/QUINTAL RS/40KGS RS/QUINTAL RS./20KG RS/QUINTAL RS/KG RS/KG

16784 29593 7392 4678 15023 3062 2463 666.8 2998 1358 1058.5 351.9 659.5 1206.4 1107.3 880

16799 29591 7490 4691 15398 3067 2448.5 662.3 2990 1365 1059.5 351 661 1205 1108 882.6

16948 30122 7712 4834 15801 3162 2505 668.1 3007 1379 1060 351.7 719 1207 1125 888.3

15557 28840 7108 4314 14197 3033 2401 652.2 2931 1274 1036 332.5 657.1 1171 1060.7 836.3

15980 29335 7272 4485 14814 3160 2475 658.35 2976 1294 1042.5 348.9 714 1177.4 1066.9 845.4

84621 38165 33180 2627390 119205 1292590 346340 399100 508600 299890 19730 152505 16519 27830 25377 9652

-804 -258 -120 -193 -209 98 12 -8.45 -22 -64 -16 -3 54.5 -29 -40.4 -34.6

15597 9633 7530 113460 44200 186290 128080 116450 172760 48710 9130 144255 5062 34360 4002 2640

122,394.35 103,869.57 23,080.01 1,073,605.05 155,037.14 359,271.62 76,150.97 236,605.14 133,921.02 36,983.79 4,534.54 4,271.46 19,945.48 3,068.56 99681.07 8078.49
* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : August 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : August 01st to 05th August 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch


Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
15980 29335 7272 4485 14814 3160 2475 658.35 2976 1294 1042.5 348.9 714 1177.4 1066.9 845.4

% Change
-4.79 -0.87 -1.62 -4.13 -1.39 3.20 0.49 -1.27 -0.73 -4.71 -1.51 -0.85 8.26 -2.40 -3.65 -3.93

Scripts
JEERA (AUG) PEPPER (AUG) TURMERIC (AUG) GUARSEED (AUG) GUARSGUM (AUG) CHANA (AUG) SOYBEAN (SEP) REFINED SOYA OIL (SEP) MUSTARD (AUG)

R3
18943.67 31996.33 8572.00 5584.33 18145.33 3376.33 2668.33 691.35 3123.33

R2
17552.67 30714.33 7968.00 5064.33 16541.33 3247.33 2564.33 675.45 3047.33 1420.67 1070.17 363.57 758.60 1148.50 908.67

R1
16766.33 30024.67 7620.00 4774.67 15677.67 3203.67 2519.67 666.90 3011.67 1357.33 1056.33 356.23 736.30 1107.70 877.03

PP
16161.67 29432.33 7364.00 4544.33 14937.33 3118.33 2460.33 659.55 2971.33 1315.67 1046.17 344.37 696.70 1084.20 856.67

S1
15375.33 28742.67 7016.00 4254.67 14073.67 3074.67 2415.67 651.00 2935.67 1252.33 1032.33 337.03 674.40 1043.40 825.03

S2
14770.67 28150.33 6760.00 4024.33 13333.33 2989.33 2356.33 643.65 2895.33 1210.67 1022.17 325.17 634.80 1019.90 804.67

S3
13379.67 26868.33 6156.00 3504.33 11729.33 2860.33 2252.33 627.75 2819.33 1105.67 998.17 305.97 572.90 955.60 752.67

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (AUG) 1525.67 GUR (SEP) POTATO (SEP) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (AUG) CARDAMOM (AUG) 1094.17 382.77 820.50 1212.80 960.67

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN Expiry Date 30-APR-12 19-AUG-11 19-SEP-11 Closing Price 714 3160 2475 % Change 8.26 3.20 0.49

Weekly Losers
Commodity JEERA Expiry Date 19-AUG-11 Closing Price 15980 1294 4485 % Change -4.79 -4.71 -4.13

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COTTON SEED 19-AUG-11 GUARSEED 19-AUG-11

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