TUGAS FINAL UAS METODE KUANTITATIF

POSISI PROVIDER POPULER DI BALI DENGAN MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCALING

Oleh Gede Bayu Rahanatha, SE Nyoman Rajendra Kumara, S.T I Putu Gede Pancayasa, S. Kom KELAS B

FAKULTAS EKONOMI UNIVERSITAS UDAYANA 2009

POSISI PROVIDER POPULER DI BALI DENGAN MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCALING

Latar Belakang Seiring dengan kemajuan teknologi dan informasi serta pertumbuhan dan penyebaran penduduk yang sangat pesat menyebabkan kebutuhan masyarakat akan kelancaran dan penyampaian informasi semakin meningkat. Banyak alat komunikasi yang bermunculan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan akan informasi. Salah satunya adalah telepon seluler (ponsel) yang saat ini mendominasi industri telekomunikasi nasional.Di Indonesia, Asosiasi Telepon Seluler Indonesia (ATSI) mencatat bahwa hingga akhir 2004, pelanggan layanan ponsel mencapai 32 juta. Diproyeksikan pada 2005, pengguna ponsel akan meningkat 1,25 juta lebih pelanggan per bulan. Bahkan bisa terlampaui jika melihat jumlah pelanggan seluler yang hingga akhir Juni sudah mencapai 40 juta. Jadi, bisa dikatakan dalam satu dasawarsa atau dalam sepuluh tahun ini bisnis jasa telekomunikasi seluler berkembang sangat pesat walaupun negeri ini sempat mengalami krisis ekonomi yang berkelanjutan serta pertumbuhan ekonomi yang belum sesuai dengan yang diharapkan, tetapi bisnis di industri ini terus berkembang hingga sekarang. Heru Sutadi (2005) mengemukakan sedikitnya ada tiga alasan terus meningkatnya pengguna telepon seluler. Pertama, perubahan gaya hidup masyarakat yang going mobile, ingin dapat dihubungi dan menghubungi di manapun berada, menyebabkan adanya kebutuhan memiliki telepon seluler. Kedua, dengan melihat daya beli seperti itu, maka sesungguhnya angka teledensitas yang berkisar pada angka 22%, maka jika dibandingkan dengan beberapa negara Asean, seperti Singapura, Malaysia maupun Filipina, angka teledensitas tersebut masih dapat ditingkatkan lagi. Karenanya tak mengherankan, jika investor dari Singapura dan Malaysia begitu berminat untuk ekspansi di sini mengingat pasar mereka yang nampaknya jenuh, sementara di tanah air masih bisa ditingkatkan lebih banyak pengguna. Ketiga, mungkin juga menjadi contoh bagi sektor telepon tetap, yaitu adanya iklim kompetisi antar operator.

Bisnis telekomunikasi nasional telah mencapai sukses yang sangat fenomenal baik bagi pabrik-pabrik pembuatnya maupun para operatornya. Berawal dari dua perusahaan jasa telekomunikasi pemerintah yakni PT Telkom dan PT Indosat pada pertengahan 1995 yang mulai mengembangkan saluran distribusi dengan open market atau disebut dengan penjualan melalui saluran distribusi para pedagang seluler. Pada awalnya perusahaan ini hanya mengeluarkan kartu SIM (simcard) GSM sebagai sarana telekomunikasi. Tahun 1997 datang pendatang baru di GSM khususnya yakni perusahaan swasta PT Exelcomindo atau lebih dikenal dengan XL. Dengan adanya tiga pemain seluler di GSM dan dengan meningkatnya aktivitas promosi yang dilakukan oleh para operator yang gencar di stasiun-stasiun televisi menyebabkan semakin bergairahnya bisnis di industri telekomunikasi Indonesia. Pada tahun belakangan, ditengah pertempuran tariff telpon GSM yang semakin marak, provider CDMA pun mulai merajalela dengan efisiensi biaya yang mereka miliki. Persaingan telah membuat operator silau untuk berbuat apapun guna mengejar pasar. Aksi yang paling sering didapati adalah dengan banting harga, bonus bicara gratis, hingga membebaskan pelanggan dari biaya roaming. Aksi ini mendorong pengguna simcard untuk menggunakan banyak kartu dan mengganti-ganti kartu SIM. Menurut pengamat telematika Roy Suryo, pasar ponsel Indonesia seperti orang memencet remote control televisi. Kalau ditanya mana yang terbaik, tergantung acaranya. Itu sekarang yang hampir terjadi. Orang menganggap ganti nomor bukanlah masalah penting. Harus diakui, saat ini kartu perdana nyaris dijual gratis. Senada dengan pendapat Roy, hasil riset Ericsson (2004) terhadap 1500 pelanggan telekomunikasi bergerak di Indonesia. Hasil riset Ericson menemukan bahwa ternyata pelanggan Indonesia paling suka berganti layanan di banding negara tetangganya di Asia Tenggara. Dari 1500 pelanggan yang disurvey, 390 orang atau sebesar 26% menjawab ganti operator dalam satu tahun ini dan 255 orang atau 17% mengaku akan berpindah operator dalam satu tahun ke depan. Ini tentunya menjadi catatan penting bagi operator seluler di Indonesia. Tentunya kompetisi yang terkesan sangat ketat antar operator di satu sisi merupakan berkah bagi para pelanggan namun disisi lainnya menjadi bumerang dengan aksi ganti-ganti kartu yang dilakukan pelanggan. Oleh karena itu, operator harus bisa

mengetahui apa yang sangat diinginkan pelanggan dalam memilih merek dan tipe simcard agar bisa terus eksis di dunia ini. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui persaingan antar operator seluler dengan melakukan segmentasi pasar serta memetakan posisi produk berdasarkan variabel demografi dan atribut yang dipentingkan dalam memilih simcard yang akan digunakan. Penelitian ini diawali dengan survey pendahuluan dan studi literatur tentang variabel demografi, segmentasi pasar, dan product positioning. Selanjutnya dilakukan pengidentifikasian masalah, perumusan masalah, pengumpulan data, dan analisis data yang akan dapat menarik suatu kesimpulan terhadap pemecahan masalah pada penelitian ini. Perumusan Masalah Konsumen terdiri dari individu-individu yang berbeda satu sama lainnya, termasuk keinginan dan kebutuhannya. Perbedaan ini mungkin akan menyebabkan tanggapan atau respon dari masing-masing individu terhadap satu produk atau jasa yang ditawarkan kepadanya akan berbeda. Perbedaan ini perlu diketahui secara efektif oleh para penyedia jasa selular untuk mendapatkan strategi pemasaran yang tepat. Salah satu cara untuk mengatasi perbedaan ini adalah dengan proses pengelompokkan konsumen (segmentasi pasar) berdasarkan kriteria seperti : geografi, demografi, keuntungan yang didapatkan dari produk tersebut dan sebagainya. Salah satu variabel demografi yang dipertimbangkan dalam segmentasi pasar berdasarkan kriteria demografi adalah pekerjaan. Menurut Kotler (2000), pola konsumsi seseorang terhadap barang dan jasa dipengaruhi oleh pekerjaannya. Selain segmentasi pasar, penyedia jasa selular juga perlu mengetahui bagaimana sebenarnya persepsi konsumen terhadap posisi produk yang ada di pasar. Berdasarkan kondisi di atas, maka dirumuskan permasalahan, yaitu bagaimana pengaruh variabel demografi terhadap perilaku konsumen dan atribut yang dipentingkan dalam memilih simcard yang akan digunakan, serta segmentasi pasar dan peta posisi produk berdasarkan persepsi dan preferensi konsumen?

Tujuan Penelitian Adapun tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengetahui persaingan antar operator seluler dengan melakukan segmentasi pasar serta memetakan posisi produk berdasarkan variabel demografi dan atribut yang dipentingkan dalam memilih simcard yang akan digunakan.

Batasan Masalah dan Asumsi Dalam penelitian ini terdapat beberapa batasan agar penelitian ini lebih terarah. Batasan dalam penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut : 1. Produk simcard GSM dan CDMA yang diteliti adalah produk simcard pra bayar dan pasca bayar yang ada di Bali yaitu : Simpati, Mentari, As, XL, Esia, Halo, flexi. 2. Penelitian dilakukan dengan penarikan sampel secara random terhadap populasi penelitian yaitu konsumen simcard GSM dan atau CDMA di Bali yang menggunakan simcard GSM dan atau GSM. 3. Variabel demografi yang dipertimbangkan adalah jenis kelamin, usia, pendidikan, pekerjaan, mobilitas kerja, penghasilan, lingkungan tempat tinggal, dan status pernikahan. 4. Segmen yang terbentuk ditentukan sebanyak dua segmen. 5. Segmentasi pasar dilakukan dengan pendekatan demografi konsumen dan atribut benefit dari produk simcard. Kemudian asumsi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut : 1. Simcard GSM dan atau CDMA yang diteliti diasumsikan telah mewakili produk yang dihasilkan oleh para penyedia jasa selular di Bali yang popular di masyarakat. 2. Jumlah kuesioner yang disebar diasumsikan dapat mewakili konsumen pemakai produk simcard GSM dan atau CDMA di Bali.

Ini adalah peta hasil proses INDSCAL untuk menampilkan map MDS dari penelitian. Terlihat bahwa mentari, simpati dan as ternyata memiliki kemiripan satu sama lain. Karena sama sama GSM dan dengan tariff relative mahal. Flexi dan Esia juga memiliki kemiripan karena dua duanya adalah CDMA dan murah. Sedangkan provider lainnya berbeda satu sama lainnya atau tidak ada kemiripan dan memiliki keunikan tersendiri. XL dengan konten nya yang lengkap dan terjangkau dengan harga relative murah, sedangkan halo dengan kualitasnya serta eksklusifitasnya yang sangat ditonjolkan dan harga cukup mahal dan bersifat pasca bayar dengan konten paling lengkap. Dimensi 1 Dari gambar terlihat bahwa semakin ke kanan, angka dimensi 1 semakin besar. Juga terlihat bahwa Esia dan Flexi berada paling dekat dengan angka dimensi 1 yang terbesar (di ujung kanan garis horizontal). Hal ini berarti keduanya mempunyai faktor-

faktor pada dimensi 1 yang sangat membedakan dibanding provider lainnya. Misalnya saja dimensi 1 mengandung faktor harga yang murah. Maka dapat dikatakan bahwa : promo harga, tariff dasar dan biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk kepemilikan esia dan flexi adalah hal-hal yang paling membedakan dibanding faktor lainnya, dibandingkan kelima provider yang lain. Sedangkan mentari, karena terletak paling kiri dengan angka paling kecil, maka dibenak konsumen, faktor promo harga, tariff dasar dan biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk kepemilikan bukan faktor yang membedakan dengan provider lain.

Dimensi 2 Dari gambar terlihat bahwa semakin keatas, maka angka dimensi 2 semakin besar. Pada dimensi ini terlihat bahwa simpati dan as berada paling dekat angka dimensi 2 yang terbesar (di ujung atas garis vertical). Hal ini berarti simpati dan as mempunyai faktorfaktor pada dimensi 2 yang paling membedakan dibanding merek sabun lainnya. Misalkan saja dimensi 2 mengandung faktor dominan seperti sinyal, periklanan adalah faktor yang paling membedakan dibandingkan provider lainnya. Sedangkan halo, karena terletak paling bawah dengan angka paling kecil, maka dibenak konsumen, faktor sinyal, periklanan justru bukan sesuatu yang membuat halo berbeda dengan ketujuh provider lainya.

Uji keselarasan responden dalam memberi penilaian

Pada grafik diatas, terlihat posisi kesepuluh responden (lihat pada bulatan yang ada pada grafik) dapat tidak membentuk sebuah garis lurus yang menuju keatas kanan. Hal ini membuktikan tidak adanya kekonsistenan para responden dalam menilai kemiripan ketujuh provider tersebut.

LAMPIRAN JURNAL

The instant-noodle war Alkman Granitsas, Margot Cohen, Sadanand Dhume. Far Eastern Economic Review. Hong Kong: Jan 9, 2003. Vol. 166, Edisi 1; pg. 42, 2 pgs Copyright Dow Jones & Company Inc Jan 9, 2003 From China to Vietnam, the instant-noodle phenomenon is growing. Competition is fierce, but it's already a s6 billion-a-year market TEN YEARS AGO, Tingyi Holdings, a company with its origins in Taiwan but most of its operations in China, first started to manufacture instant noodles on the mainland. Almost overnight, the company single-handedly created a demand for instant noodles in China and now controls roughly 30% of the market with its Master Kang brand. Tingyi's success brought a raft of competitors. Six years ago, Taiwan's Uni-President Enterprises set up shop in China and now commands an r8% share of the mainland's instantnoodle market. Hundreds of domestic Chinese competitors followed: In the past five years an estimated 2,000 instantnoodle production lines have been set up to fight over China's market, valued at $2.5 billion last year. "We first set up a factory in Tianjin in 1992, and basically the market took off with us. Over the past five years, for example, it has been growing fast; this year it has grown around io%," says Frank Lin, chief financial officer at Tingyi Holdings. In China, Indonesia, Vietnam and Taiwan, newcomers are muscling their way into once tightly controlled markets, sparking price wars and introducing new flavours and new packaging. The lure is a $6 billion-a-year industry that is growing at an 8% average annual rate and could double by the year zoro, according to the International Ramen Manufacturers Association, or IRMA. The next step for Tingyi, says Lin, is to extend its Master Kang brand to Taiwan. There it will face off against rival Uni-President-which commands 50% of the island's instantnoodle market-and six other competitors. In early 2002, Tingyi already started to produce instant noodles in small volumes in Taiwan, but the real growth will come when Taiwan lifts restrictions on food products from China as it is required to do so under its World Trade Organization commitments. Instant noodles were invented in Japan in the 1950s (see story on page 43) but they started to spread to the rest of Asia and the West in the early 197os. Even as they caught on in other countries, however, instant-noodle sales in Japan were beginning to decline after peaking at about i billion meals served a year-about io packs per person at the time. In response, Japan's instant-noodle companies introduced two innovations that eventually led to a fourfold increase in the size of the market. First, they introduced a variety of flavours. Secondly, they began selling noodles in paper or styrofoam containers so the customer could simply pour boiling water into it and get a

hot bowl of noodles. The rigid packaging of a styrofoam container permitted companies to provide richer, vacuumpacked flavourings like meat, vegetables and egg. Their higher price made cup noodles slow to catch on, but as incomes rose in Japan they gained in popularity. Current consumption in Japan now totals 5.3 billion servings a yearor about 41 servings per year for each man, woman and child in the country. Some 60% of instant-noodle meals in Japan are now served in containers. Both innovations are now also catching on in the rest of the region. In Southeast Asia and China, instant-noodle makers have started to introduce cup noodles in the past four to five years on a bigger scale than before in an effort to appeal to higher-income consumers. For now, the market is small-in Indonesia, for example, cup noodles account for just i% of the market, as they do also in China. But the choice of flavours is exploding. "In the past three or four years, Southeast Asian markets have started to copy the products Japan introduced 25 years ago," says Kawagoe Shinji of the IRMA. "Of course they have introduced their own inventions too, like new flavours that are very specific to each country. After all, each country has its own food culture." In Vietnam, where consumers were first enticed by Korean fashion and make-up, they are now lapping up Korean flavoured noodles. Formerly state-owned, now partially privatized, instant-noodle maker Thien Huong this year launched over 20 kinds of instant noodles including Korean seafood noodles with protein supplements, Korean chickenflavoured noodles and kimchi, or fermented cabbage, flavoured noodles. Its rival, ioo% state-owned Miliket Noodle, this year also introduced io new noodle products including chicken-curry flavoured noodles and its own version of kimchi noodles. Why the rush for new taste sensations? Because competition is heating up as more outsiders crowd into Vietnam's market and previously state-owned companies are privatized. Late last year, Uni-President Enterprises set up its first noodle factory in Vietnam and earlier this year Anglo-Dutch giant Unilever's Knorr brand also joined the fray. In Ho Chi Minh City there are now three big state-owned instant-noodle firms, two joint ventures, two foreign firms and roughly 40 private companies scrambling for a piece of the action. "The market is getting tougher and tougher because giant foreign companies such as Unilever and Uni-President are in the market now. And they have very good distribution systems and a big budget," says Nguyen Thi Hue, a member of the marketing team at Asia Food Industry, a privately owned Vietnamese instant-noodle maker. "But we can't increase our volumes because we are already operating at full capacity to meet market demand." The same is true of Indonesia. At Jakarta's well-stocked Sogo supermarket, a dizzying array of noodle brands in brightly coloured packets jostle for shelf space. Most of them

are made by just one company-Indofood, the flagship of Indonesia's Salim Group and the world's largest manufacturer of instant noodles by volume. Despite a distribution network that reaches from the swankiest supermarket to the tiniest village store, Indofood can no longer take its market dominance for granted. During the Suharto era, the Salim Group's close ties with the then president gave its flour-milling unit a monopoly on imported wheat, the staple ingredient of noodles. Wheat imports have since been opened and cut-throat competitors have responded by launching an assault on Indofood. One example is new player Alhami, a local brand that has made inroads in Medan, Indonesia's third-biggest city, by undercutting Indofood on price as well as by embracing an Islamic image for its noodles and boasting that its noodles are halal, or permissible for Muslims. As a result of Alhami and others, Indofood's share of the instant-noodle market has slipped from 95% in 1998 to an estimated 88% this year even as the overall market grows at roughly 4% a year. Indofood is now trying to move to higher ground by shifting its focus from volume to value. Earlier this year, the company launched a range of regional flavours to appeal to resurgent local pride sparked by political decentralizationIndofood now offers Southern Sumatrans and Northern Sulawesians their own flavour of noodles. "You need to know about the culture of a place," says company chief executive Eva Riyanti Hutapea. "Food is culture." A Uniquely Japanese Invention Instant noodles are nothing new in Asia. They were commercially introduced to the world in Japan in 1958 by Momofuku Ando, now chairman of conglomerate Nissin Foods. Inspired by the shelf life of Japanese tempura, or deep-fried food, Ando invented a production line that included a special one-and-a-half-- minute quick-frying process, This was used to produce noodles that could be stored for six months at room temperature. Preparing a meal was a snap: Place the dehydrated noodles in boiling water for 2-3 minutes and add a flavour packet. At the time, instant noodles were seen as an easy-to-make food to feed Japan's post-war passes, Each instant-noodle package packs about 450 calories, about a quarter to a fifth of a person's daily calorific needs. (Nutritionally, however, instant noodles may fall short: They tend to be low in vitamins and minerals and high in sodium and fat.) They weren't cheap. Instant noodles took a while to catch on because they were considered expensive by the prices of the time. Now, cording to a survey by the Fuji esearch Institute, instant noodles ink as one of Japan's most recognizable contributions to the 20th century, alongside karaoke, Pokemon and the Walkman. Alkman Granitsas

Micron Positions Itself for Profit Jerry A. DiColo. Wall Street Journal. (Eastern edition). New York, N.Y.: Sep 10, 2008. (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Reproduced with permission of copyright owner. Further reproduction or distribution is prohibited without permission.

Memory-chip maker Micron Technology Inc. is setting up for a big run -- once chip prices recover, that is. Micron is in the middle of an industrywide downturn. With an oversupply of memory chips flooding the market, chip prices are down, Micron and most of its competitors are posting losses, and the Boise, Idaho, company's stock price is at historic lows. But the company has gotten into position to gain market share when chip prices turn and, based on its current valuation, the stock looks poised to go on an extended run. "They're the healthiest they've ever been," said Caris & Co. analyst Betsy Van Hees, noting that Micron has done "an excellent job" lowering costs in the weak market. Micron's stock is trading at 14-year lows and, given the company's six consecutive quarterly losses, it might seem like a strange time to call it "healthy." But Micron -which makes chips that store data in PCs and consumer electronics -- has more than $1.5 billion in cash to handle losses and make purchases. A protracted downturn is nothing new in the cyclical memory market, and analysts generally see the company returning to profitability in late 2009. "We feel pretty good that we're in a great position, and we feel like we're seeing a real bifurcation of competitors out there -- those that can continue to perform and invest as they need and can actually make some decent gross margin at this kind of [pricing] levels. And those that cannot are going to have to make some decisions here relatively soon on what they're going to be as the next year unfolds," Micron Vice President Kipp Bedard said at a recent technology conference. Micron shares aren't likely to recover before an uptick in chip prices, which have continued to fall through 2008, dragging down stock prices across the sector. Over the past 12 months, Micron's stock has fallen more than 60%. SanDisk Corp., Qimonda AG and Spansion Inc. are all down more than 70%, and Asian chip makers have fallen as well. The downturn, however, gives Micron's stock in particular the chance for a strong rebound, since the company is cutting costs and increasing production more quickly, and cheaply, than others. Micron has cut the costs of making its chips nearly in tandem with declining prices. Before the end of this year, it will begin to implement a technology that will lower costs and raise volume by increasing the speed at which it can manufacture chips. Specifically,

a new manufacturing process in both its dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and flash memory segments will allow the company to get significantly more chips out of each wafer, increasing the total volume of chips produced and lowering the cost per chip. "It's a scale business, so you really need to increase market share and volume to bring costs down," said iSuppli Corp. memory-market analyst Nam Hyung Kim. Mr. Kim said that a successful transition to the new manufacturing process would be "very meaningful, financially" for the chip maker. Joining with other companies to increase its manufacturing capacity also gives Micron a cheap, fast way to boost production without building costly new plants, and its ability to take more chips out of each wafer means any joint-venture partners or acquisition targets would benefit from production increases as well. In April, Micron established a joint venture with Taiwan's Nanya Technology Corp. in which each company contributed $550 million to develop and make chips. The deal allows Micron to increase manufacturing capacity at a fraction of the cost required to build its own plant from scratch. "We feel that with our partner, we're in a great cost position right now," said Mr. Bedard. "We have now the luxury" of having "enough wafer capacity right now to be a low-cost producer," he said. Additionally, Micron plans to license its technology to partners, generating a small, but profitable, revenue stream. Robert Baird analyst Tristan Gerra estimates that the licensing and royalty fees should contribute about 30 cents a share in income spread out over the next six quarters. Shares of memory-chip companies have plunged with an oversupply in the two major memory-chip markets, DRAM and flash. The chips, used mostly to store data in PCs and small consumer electronics such as cellphones and MP3 players, are commodity products. Neither DRAM nor flash memory has shown signs of a recovery, and memory makers haven't been able to rely on one or the other to ride out the storm. Investors are skeptical that the market will rebound soon. They haven't forgotten being burned by attempts to call a bottom in 2007 and earlier this year. Most estimates now see a DRAM turnaround beginning in early 2009, while flash memory is expected to recover later next year. "The market will turn around; it's a matter of time. The 'when' is the big question," said Mr. Kim. "The biggest advance will go to someone that controls their costs and has some reasonable scale." For investors prepared to wait for the recovery, the time could be right for buying Micron stock. Many analysts expect a few more quarters of red ink, but with a price-to-book ratio

of 0.42, Micron shares seem to be pricing in the losses expected into 2009. Price to book and price to sales are both sitting below historical ranges, an indication that the market has little optimism remaining. There is also speculation that Micron is planning to make an enticing acquisition: Infineon Technologies AG's majority stake in memory-chip maker Qimonda. Infineon has said publicly that it wants to reduce its Qimonda stake to below 50% by early 2009, and many believe that picking up all or part of the stake would make sense for only two companies: Japan's Elpida Memory Inc. or Micron. Elpida recently quashed rumors of its interest, saying it had no plans to purchase a stake. Micron declined to comment on speculation regarding a possible deal. Nevertheless, Micron has the cash to take a sizable bite of the chip maker, and adding the manufacturing capacity would be a boon when chip prices recover -- but it is still a gamble. Micron is working to return to profitability, and using its cash to make a big acquisition would be risky. "If that happens . . . if Micron had access to any [Qimonda] capacities, it could give [Micron] a lot of market-share advantages," said Mr. Kim. "It would be a very interesting scenario."