The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

Contents

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

Executive Summary

The worlds climate has always been changing between hotter and cooler periods due to various factors. However, for the first time in the earths history it has now been firmly established that its human inhabitants are altering the climate through global warming as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. Food production will be particularly sensitive to climate change as they depend directly on climatic conditions. Due to biological diversity the source of enormous environmental, economic, and cultural value will be threatened by climate change. The main reason suspected to have caused these changes is the emission of Greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases have mainly been emitted by developed Western countries and it is these countries that must act to prevent climate change becoming more serious.

In terms of the impact of climate change few places in the world will experience the range of effects and the severity of changes that will occur in Bangladesh, which will include: Average weather temperatures rising, melting of glaciers in the source areas of Bangladeshs rivers altering the hydrological cycle and sea level rise displacing communities, turning freshwater saline and facilitating more powerful storm surges. The impact will be intensified by the fact that Bangladesh is both one of the most populated and one of the poorest nations on earth. . The main intent of this paper is to portray the effects and the level of impact of such factors on the health, ecosystem, food production and the economy of Bangladesh. There are a number of basic strategies that can be taken in response to climate change that categories various ways to adapt to the altered situation but a process that starts in and with the local community and its adaptive capabilities is vital; especially as climate change adaptation is context specific. Some of the possible actions taken will also be discussed in this paper.

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

Introduction

Global Warming is a major cause of concern for the world, and due to Global Warming there is a plodding change in the climate of the world. How extreme is the climatic change? Well, It is known that climate change in the next hundred years will be significant and by the year 2100 best estimates predict between a 1.8 C and 4 C rise in average global temperature, although it could possibly be as high as 6.4 C. Food production will be particularly sensitive to climate change, because crop yields depend directly on climatic conditions. Meanwhile future tropical cyclones will become stronger, with faster wind speeds increasing the amount of damage they cause; floods will become more common due to changing rainfall patterns and glacier melt in the summer; sea-level rise could inundate large areas of low lying countries; and the changing climate may indirectly cause misery by increasing the incidence of disease and conflict. Furthermore biological diversity the source of enormous environmental, economic, and cultural value will be threatened by climate change. Food production will be particularly sensitive to climate change, because crop yields depend directly on climatic conditions. Meanwhile future tropical cyclones will become stronger, with faster wind speeds increasing the amount of damage they cause; floods will become more common due to changing rainfall patterns and glacier melt in the summer; sea-level rise could inundate large areas of low lying countries; and the changing climate may indirectly cause misery by increasing the incidence of disease and conflict.

Bangladesh has a tropical monsoon-type climate, with a hot and rainy summer and a dry winter. January is the coolest month with temperatures averaging near 26 degree C (78 degree F) and April the warmest with temperatures from 33 to 36 degree C (91 to 96 degree F). The climate is one of the wettest in the world. So, how is the change in climate going to affect Bangladesh? In terms of the impact of climate change few places in the world will experience the range of effects and the severity of changes that will occur in Bangladesh ( see Appendix 1 ), which will include: Average weather temperatures rising; more extreme hot and cold spells; rainfall being less when it is most needed for agriculture, yet more in the monsoon when it already causes

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

floods; melting of glaciers in the source areas of Bangladeshs rivers altering the hydrological cycle; more powerful tornados and cyclones; and sea level rise displacing communities, turning freshwater saline and facilitating more powerful storm surges. The impact will be intensified by the fact that Bangladesh is both one of the most populated and one of the poorest nations on earth. Are there any solutions to this dawdling but substantial problem? There are a number of basic strategies that can be taken in response to climate change that categories various ways to adapt to the altered situation but a process that starts in and with the local community and its adaptive capabilities is vital; especially as climate change adaptation is context specific. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development thinking and practices has also been recommended as a priority and there are already many innovative projects in Bangladesh and around the world addressing the growing impacts of climate change on local communities. Many more adaptation techniques need to be either transferred from other parts of the world or developed in the country. There is also a need for organizations to disseminate their ideas and experiences among likeminded NGOs in Bangladesh and develop their responses to climate change.

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

2.1 Effects of Climatic Changes 2.1.1 Drought

Climate change will alter patterns of water availability by intensifying the water cycle. Droughts and floods will become more severe in many areas. There will be more rain at high latitudes, and less rain in the dry subtropics. Hotter land surface temperatures cause more powerful evaporation and hence more intense rainfall, with increased risk of flash flooding. Differences in water availability between regions will become increasingly pronounced and areas that are already relatively dry are likely to become drier. 2.1.2 Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall will become more common, and this is likely to damage farm incomes through increased soil erosion, and an inability to cultivate land due to the water logging of soils.

Landslides and avalanche damage, loss of life and damage to buildings and property, and loss of livelihoods due to longer periods of flooding are additional effects of heavier rainfalls.

2.1.3 Winds

Future tropical cyclones will become stronger, with faster wind speeds. Also known as hurricanes and typhoons, these massive storm systems combine the effects of heavy rainfall, high winds, and storm surge and sea-level rise. Warmer ocean temperatures will increase the frequency and intensity of such storms. Storm routes are also predicted to move pole-ward, which will mean changes in wind, precipitation and temperature patterns.

The effects of more often and more powerful storm and cyclones will include: Damage to crops; wind throw (uprooting) of trees; increased risk of deaths, injuries, water- and food borne diseases; post-traumatic stress disorders; disruption by flood and strong winds; potential for population migrations; loss of property

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

2.1.4 Sea Level Rise

Global warming has raised and will continue to raise sea level due to thermal expansion (warmer water takes up more space) of the oceans. The consequences of sea level rise include more frequent and more devastating flooding and loss of coastal land. Rising sea levels will cause livelihoods to be lost and people displaced as land permanently go under water, while the costs of sea defenses will rise.

2.1.5 Agriculture (Food Production)

Agriculture is always vulnerable to unfavorable weather events and climate conditions. Despite technological advances such as improved crop varieties and irrigation systems, weather and climate are important factors, which play a significant role to agricultural productivity. The impacts of climate change on agriculture food production are global concerns and for that matter Bangladesh, where lives and livelihoods depend mainly on agriculture, is exposed to a great danger, as the country is one of the most vulnerable countries due to climate change. Global climate has been changing due to natural forcing as well as anthropogenic activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and land use changes in recent decades. Climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, atmospheric carbon dioxide, solar radiation etc are closely link with agriculture production. Therefore, rice production would be major concern in recent years due to changing climatic conditions, because there is a significant amount of rice yield may hamper for only fluctuations of those climatic parameters. Bangladesh has a large agrarian base with 76 percent of total population is living in the rural areas and 90 percent of the rural population directly related with agriculture. In agricultural sector 48.1 percent of the countrys labor force is always vulnerable to changing climate conditions and unfavorable weather events. The diverse climatic phenomena like cyclone, drought, changing rainfall patterns and temperature; there has been a significant lost in food grain production in every year. For example, two rounds of floods and devastating cyclone Sidr in 2007 and cyclone Aila in 2009 caused severe damages in agriculture production, especially the rice production. A simulation study has been conducted to assess the vulnerability of Boro rice production (58% of the total rice production during 2008) in Bangladesh to see the effects of potential climate change. Effects

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

of climate change on yield of Boro rice have been assessed using DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro technology Transfer, version 4) for six major rice-growing regions. The effects of maximum temperature would drastically reduce rice yield at all selected locations. Boro rice yields reduce at range of 2.6 to 13.5% due to increase 20C maximum temperature and 0.11 to 28.7% for 40C maximum temperature (base year 2008). The average value (average percentage change of rice yield for 6 locations) of Boro rice yield reduction is 6.10% and 16.0% in case of 20C and 40C for increasing maximum temperature, respectively. As like as maximum temperature, minimum temperature have also negative impacts on Boro rice yields that reduce 0.40 to 13.1% due to increase 20C and 0.11 to 15.5% for 40C minimum temperature. It has been estimated that maximum temperature is more vulnerable and has a negative impact on rice yield compared to the minimum temperature.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is likely to have some positive effect on rice yield, but the effect is not so significant compared to the negative effect of temperature.

2.1.6 Human Health

Climate change affects human health both directly and indirectly. People are exposed directly to changing weather patterns (e.g. temperature, precipitation, etc.) and indirectly through changes in the quality of water, air and food and changes in ecosystems. These direct and indirect exposures can cause death, disability and suffering. Health problems increase vulnerability and reduce the capacity of individuals and groups to adapt to climate change.

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

Climate change is affecting the seasonality of some allergenic species as well as the seasonal activity and distribution of some disease vectors; climate plays an important role in the seasonal pattern or sequential distribution of malaria, dengue, tick borne diseases, cholera and other diarrheal diseases; and heat waves and flooding can have severe and long-lasting effects.

Bangladesh is vulnerable to outbreaks of infectious, waterborne and other types of diseases. Records show that the incidence of malaria increased from 1556 cases in 1971 to 15 375 in 1981, and from 30 282 cases in 1991 to 42 012 in 2004. Other diseases such as diarrhea and dysentery, etc. are also on the rise especially during the summer months. It has been predicted that the combination of higher temperatures and potential increase in summer precipitation may cause the spread of many infectious diseases. Bangladesh also carries the burden of high population, natural disasters and diminishing and polluted natural resources. The added burden of increased health problems, possibly due to climate change and climate variability, will push back its developmental achievements. Public health depends on safe drinking water, sufficient food, secure shelter and good social conditions. A changing climate is likely to affect all of these conditions.

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

Some of the health effects of climate change include: Increasing frequency of heat waves: The elderly and small children of Bangladesh are more prone to illness due to increased temperatures. The health impacts associated with heat waves are heatstroke, dehydration and aggravation of cardiovascular diseases in elderly people. It is also to be noted that Bangladesh does not have records on illnesses and deaths related to heat waves. However, it was generally observed that prevalence ofdiarrhoeal diseases increased during extreme temperatures and heat waves, particularly in children. Vector-borne diseases: Changes in climate are likely to lengthen the transmission seasons of important vector-borne diseases, and alter their geographic range. Already, dengue is a regular disease in the major cities of Dhaka and Chittagong.

Rising sea levels: These increase the risk of coastal flooding, and may necessitate population displacement, and cause many other health-related problems such as cholera, diarrhea, malnutrition and skin diseases, etc.

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

10

The Effects of Climate Change on Bangladesh

11